FinGaz
Njabulo Ncube
GOVERNMENT is likely to
cut short the term of office of the commission led
by the scandal-prone
Sekesai Makwavarara, in an eleventh-hour attempt to
deal with the decay that
has reduced some suburbs in Harare to sewage farms.
Roped in when the
popularly elected mayor Elias Mudzuri of the Movement for
Democratic Change
(MDC) was hounded out of office as the ruling ZANU PF
sought to exert its
influence in the capital city, Makwavarara has dismally
failed to turn
around the operations of the city.
If anything, the situation has grown
from bad to worse since the appointment
of Makwavarara, who many observers
say was hardly free of political and
partisan obligations.
Suburbs
have been known to go for weeks on end without water while mountains
of
uncollected refuse, raw sewage flowing in some suburbs, poor roads and
lack
of street lighting among others, have become a common feature in the
city.
This, impeccable sources said yesterday, had embarrassed the
government. And
to save face, it was actively pushing for the
Makwavarara-led commission's
ouster.
A plan was already on the cards
to show Makwavarara and her team the exit
doors before the end of May and
begin a process of salvaging Harare's
long-lost "sunshine city" status, it
is hoped.
As if to give credence to the game plan leading to the
commission's ouster,
the anti-corruption unit last week descended on the
capital's administrative
nerve centre where the commission has presided over
the cosmopolitan city's
collapse. This week, a parliamentary portfolio
committee moved into action
when it began gathering evidence on the
concerns, expectations and needs of
residents.
"Our silence is now
being misconstrued to mean we are condoning the man-made
crisis at Town
House," said the source. "While the political leadership is
agreed that the
time is now ripe to show Makwavarara and her team the door,
we are still to
agree on how the vacuum created could be dealt with," added
the
source.
The Makwavarara-led commission came into office in December 2004
following
the sacking of the MDC council after it was allegedly found guilty
of
mismanaging council affairs. The MDC council had replaced one headed by
the
ruling ZANU PF's Solomon Tawengwa, who was sacked in 1991, alongside the
entire council on allegations of corruption and mismanagement. In between
Mudzuri and Tawengwa's terms, a commission headed by Elijah Chanakira had
been in charge of the city.
The current commission had its term of
office renewed to June.
It emerged this week that the Local Government
Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee chaired by Margaret Zinyemba might produce
a damning report on the
chaos and goings-on at the Harare City Council after
a fiery public meeting
on Tuesday, which revealed shocking corruption and
alleged dilatory
supervision at the council.
Some legislators that
sit on the portfolio committee, which on Tuesday
opened a public hearing on
service delivery by the City of Harare, told The
Financial Gazette that from
the evidence gathered so far, there was urgent
need to act on the
chaos.
"One option could be to move a motion in Parliament to remove the
commission
as they are part of the problem," said a legislator who sits on
the
committee, speaking anonymously.
"People running Harare are
appointees, there isn't much that they can
achieve to turn around the
municipality as long as some of them are there.
It seems the chair does what
she wants. We are going to include this in our
unflattering report, which we
will present to Parliament soon," said the
legislator.
It is also
understood that the Local Government Parliamentary Portfolio
Committee
members and the residents want results of the investigations being
conducted
by the Anti-Corruption Commission at the council made public,
especially the
controversies surrounding Makwavarara who stands accused of
extravagance.
"The real culprit behind the series of highly irregular
expenditure and the
lack of accountability by the chairperson of the
Commission and others is a
system of political patronage that leveraged
people to positions of power,
privilege and prosperity that almost
guarantees that professional
performance, public accountability and
transparency can always be sacrificed
for political expedience," said
Transparency International of Zimbabwe
(TIZ)in a statement.
"While
the action to investigate corruption in the Harare City Council is
welcome
and warranted, it will remain cosmetic surgery, too little, too late
unless
it is extended to cover other cases involving high ranking officials,
politicians and businesspeople involved in past and present corruption," TIZ
said.
Zinyemba was not immediately available to comment on the outcome of
her
committee's probe into the affairs of the country's largest
municipality.
FinGaz
Kumbirai
Mafunda
ZIMBABWE'S largest extractor of platinum, Zimbabwe Platinum Mines
(Zimplats), has elected to remain cautious on President Robert Mugabe's
recent remarks about seizing more than half the shares in foreign-owned
mines, choosing instead to put more faith in the ongoing consultations with
the government.
Zimplats, through its major shareholder Impala
Platinum (Implats), has
previously responded to the government's threats.
But the white metal miner
was this week talking cautiously after President
Mugabe once again rattled
foreign mining houses by announcing that his
government was not backing off
from a plan to take control of more than half
the shares of foreign-owned
mines.
In an address marking Zimbabwe's
26 years of independence, President Mugabe,
who has seized land from whites
and parcelled it to landless blacks, said
minerals were non-renewable
resources hence his government needs to maximise
on the existing
deposits.
Although the statement further dampened some miners' spirits,
the country's
leading mining house was this week counting on the ongoing
discussions
hoping that the government will climb down from its
position.
"We have no comment to make at present," said Greg Sebborn,
chief executive
of Zimplats, "other than the fact that we are engaged in
discussions with
the government at the moment," he added.
Prior to
President Mugabe's independence shocker miners had discounted the
threats to
seize shares after the 82-year-old veteran of Zimbabwe's
liberation struggle
had told a meeting of his ruling ZANU PF party that
miners had nothing to
fear from the proposed law.
At the meeting held in the capital President
Mugabe said amendments to the
Mining Act were still under discussion,
contrary to an earlier statement by
Mines Minister, Amos Midzi that cabinet
had okayed the amendments.
In another meeting with foreign mining
executives President Mugabe also
reportedly assured them to press ahead with
expansion plans, which they had
put on ice.
Insiders at Zimplats said
the white metal miner is counting on its existing
Mining Agreement, which
was signed by Zimplats and the government prior to
commencement of
operations. Implats, the world's second largest platinum
miner, has an 86.7
percent stake in Zimplats while Zimbabwe, which holds the
world's richest
platinum deposits after South Africa, is the main area of
future growth for
Implats.
The Chamber of Mines, which represents both local and foreign
miners, began
negotiations with the Mines Ministry after the government
issued a statement
saying that it is seeking to nationalise all
foreign-owned mines and give
locals majority shareholding of the
mines.
With respect to the platinum metals sector, Mines Minister Amos
Midzi said
the proposed amendment provides for 51 percent of all platinum
operations to
be owned by the state, of which 25 percent is by way of a
non-contributory
stake, and the balance by way of contribution over a period
of time.
However the Chamber of Mines, which represents about 200 mining
houses, says
the proposed amendments to the Minerals and Mines Act would
effectively kill
off investment needed to keep mines open.
The
government's proposed annexation of mines comes against a background of
an
economic crisis that has left the government in a hard cash crunch.
FinGaz
Geoff
Nyarota
IN some ZANU PF and academic circles the Tsholotsho Declaration
has remained
a hot topic since the Dinyane School speech and prize-giving
day held in
Tsholotsho on November 18, 2004. It is alleged that certain
members of the
ZANU PF leadership, who descended on Dinyane in unusually
large numbers,
mixed speech-making and prize-giving with plotting to foil
President
Mugabe's allegedly well planned succession arrangements. To most
of us the
declaration remains shrouded in mystery in spite of Professor
Jonathan Moyo's
now serialised but rather belated effort to "define its
actual sum and
substance for the benefit" of those with a passionate
interest in such
intimate affairs of the ruling party. This certainly cannot
apply to every
citizen.
The most absurd revelation by Moyo is that
chapter and verse of the
Tsholotsho Declaration will not be found in any
written document.
Even while the declaration is unrecorded, its details
as outlined by Moyo,
appear to be cloaked in serious flaws. To start with,
its architects, as
Moyo calls them, appear to have laboured under the
illusion that one
political group, ZANU PF, will reign over Zimbabwe
indefinitely.
Regrettably, they seem to entertain the assumption that
ethnicity must, of
necessity, remain an indispensable element of Zimbabwe's
political
well-being.
In the first published instalment, Moyo
introduced yet a third dimension,
one which he does not convincingly
propound as a theory. He suggests that
the Tsholotsho Declaration stubbornly
refuses to fall away from the centre
of Zimbabwe's politics. It would be
nearer the truth to state that the said
declaration perhaps remains at the
epicentre of ZANU PF internal politics.
As the prospect of Zimbabwe ever
becoming a fully-fledged one-party state in
the not-too-distant future
diminishes, the need becomes more paramount for
all concerned to constantly
draw a distinction between Zimbabwe, the
country, and ZANU PF, the ruling
party. Of late there is growing evidence of
a resurgence of public
disenchantment with the ruling party, if attendance
at opposition rallies is
anything to go by.
Rather naively, the architects of the declaration continue
to believe that
ZANU PF cannot be dislodged from power. Notwithstanding the
extraordinary
circumstances of the said architects failing to commit such an
important
official pronouncement or statement to paper in order to eliminate
the
danger of variety of interpretation, they defined their own role as
being
that of determining how most benevolently ZANU PF can continue to
administer
the affairs of Zimbabwe well into the future.
In this
context the architects appear to have succumbed to a certain
affliction
which normally manifests itself in a dictatorship - a belief that
their
power is everlasting, fortified by an overwhelming sense of
invincibility.
The names of Nicolai Ceaucescu, the self-aggrandising
communist dictator of
Romania, Emperor Bokassa 1 of the Central African
Republic, who was
sentenced to death for murder and the kleptomaniac Mobuto
Sese Seko of the
Republic of Zaire, immediately come to mind. Bokassa's
death sentence was
commuted to 20 years.
Other notable dictators are
Charles Taylor of Liberia, recently captured in
controversial circumstances
in Sierra Leone, Mengistu Haile Mariam of
Ethiopia, who remains temporarily
ensconced in luxury in our country, Idi
Amin Dada, the butcher of Uganda who
died in exile in Saudi Arabia, and the
former Life President of Malawi, Dr
Hastings Kamuzu Banda.
Somehow, those who surrounded them believed that
the institution of their
power was a permanent feature of the governance of
their respective
countries.
But in Malawi the determination and
courage of civil society, including a
fearless clergy, campaigning in tandem
with 21 vibrant newspapers yielded
dividends. Banda, who fed the bodies of
critics and rivals to the crocodiles
of the Shire River in his heyday, while
locking the more fortunate among
them away in the wilderness of Mikuyu
Prison, was escorted from Sanjika
Palace for the last time in
1994.
In politics no situation is cast in stone, especially where a
people have a
resolve to determine their own final destiny.
According
to Moyo, the unwritten declaration professes an unyielding
obsession with
the need to "reflect Zimbabwe's regional diversity and ethnic
balance
between and among the country's four major ethnic groupings, namely
Karanga,
Manyika, Zezuru and Ndebele in order to promote and maintain
representative
national cohesion, development, peace and stability while
fostering a
broad-based sense of national belonging and identity".
Current popular
opinion tends to question the validity of such ethnic
balancing. It is
suggested that ethnic balancing may have become a trap in
which both ZANU PF
and the MDC are now inexorably ensnared. The MDC's quest
for such ethnic
dexterity has created a long-standing nightmare for the
party. Lately, the
party attempted to recycle Welshman Mabhena, an elderly
politician, and
present him at its congress in March as a potential vice
president of
Zimbabwe, starting in 2008. It appears that ethnicity rather
than merit was
the criterion used in his selection.
Any suggestion that political talent and
general good qualities are
equitably distributed among the Ndebele, the
Zezuru, the Manyika and the
Karanga is, of course erroneous.
The top
positions in any party should, indeed, not be monopolised by one
clan or
tribe. That would be perpetuating a legacy of ZANU PF. But then the
converse
should also be true - that neither should such positions always be
distributed on the basis of a conscious effort to satisfy ethnic aspirations
at the expense of merit.
If it becomes evident beyond reasonable
doubt, for example, that Professor
Jonathan Moyo is Zimbabwe's most
competent and most astute politician, with
a track record of commitment to
service for the benefit of the people, the
average citizen would, without
hesitation and through democratic elections,
endorse his bid for
presidential office. If, on the other hand, they
rejected him for whatever
legitimate reasons, he should refrain from citing
ethnicity for his
rejection.
Such a mature political disposition should emanate from a
basic realisation
that we are essentially one nation, regardless of which
part of Zimbabwe we
originate from.
"One Zambia, one nation" was
President Kenneth Kaunda's mantra as he rallied
his countrymen behind him in
unity and peace on the march to progress and
development after independence.
More significantly, when his compatriots
realised that, despite his good
intentions, their president had quite
clearly run out of both steam and new
ideas they quietly voted him out of
office, as was their democratic right.
Kaunda, now 83 and out of office for
15 years, proceeded to set up the
Kenneth Kaunda Children of Africa
Foundation which pays for food, medical
care and schooling for Aids orphans.
Well respected internationally, he is
now the patron of the Commission on
HIV/AIDS and Governance in
Africa.
Moyo states, "Most level-headed Zimbabweans would agree that it
is unhealthy
to institutionalise tribal and village politics as the current
ZANU PF
clique in power has done."
Indeed, the village politics of
some of our wayward politicians have spawned
some of the national disasters
and potential catastrophes of
post-independence Zimbabwe. Enos Nkala was
inspired by an obsession with
delivering Matabeleland to ZANU PF, while
Mutasa will not hesitate to
alienate his own people in a bid to please ZANU
PF.
Evidence abounds in the long history of ZANU PF to suggest that
Zimbabwe's
ruling party will confront any challenge to itself squarely, if
not
violently, regardless of the location or ethnic origin of the
menace.
As the architects of the Tsholotsho Declaration discovered, to
their utter
undoing, ZANU PF has a track record of ruthlessly dealing with
potential
threats to its political power, regardless of their ethnic
origin.
The group of people who became the victims of Tsholotsho was
multi-ethnic in
its composition. Going back in history, among the so-called
rebels arrested
by ZANU PF and incarcerated in Cabo Delgado in northern
Mozambique in 1977
and 1978 were fighters and politicians from virtually
every part of Zimbabwe
where ZANU PF attracted followers.
Some of the
more prominent of ZANU PF's prisoners in Mozambique were Rugare
Gumbo, who
now serves as a cabinet minister and Augustine Chihuri, the
current
Commissioner of Police. Their provinces of origin are Masvingo and
Mashonaland Central respectively.
After independence ZANU PF's
crusade to deal with perceived enemies has been
similarly multi-ethnic.
Prominent politicians, Nkomo of Matabeleland,
Muzorewa, Ndabaningi Sithole
and Edgar Tekere of Manicaland, Eddison Zvobgo
of Masvingo and Willie
Musarurwa and President Mugabe's own cousin, James
Chikerema, both of
Mashonaland West, became premier targets. Because PF-Zapu
was the largest
threat on account of its iron grip on Matabeleland, ZANU PF
sought to
neutralise its leadership through the long-term detention of
officials
Dumiso Dabengwa, Lookout Masuku, Sidney Malunga, to mention a few.
While
the hapless Muzorewa ceased to be a serious political threat to Mugabe
or
ZANU PF after April 1980, he was still regarded as a veritable enemy.
When
popular former Gweru Mayor Patrick Kombayi, a wealthy benefactor of
ZANU PF
in Zambia during the liberation struggle, challenged former
vice-President
Simon Muzenda at the polls in Gweru in 1990 he was shot and
seriously
wounded by a CIO agent and a ZANU PF activist.
Zimbabwean politicians,
who seek to jealously guard their own assumed status
as ZANU PF's exclusive
enemies on ethnic grounds while insisting that other
tribes are not genuine
enemies of the ruling party effectively, weaken the
pro-democracy movement
by dividing the challenge to President Mugabe along
ethnic
lines.
Only cohesion and unity of purpose among the Manyika, the Zezuru,
the
Ndebele and the Karanga in challenging dictatorship will alleviate the
current suffering of the people of Zimbabwe. Until that simple message sinks
in the minds of all who seek or claim to spearhead the current struggle
against an authoritarian government, ZANU PF will continue to rule in the
absence of any serious challenge.
FinGaz
NYASHA CHASAKARA
STOCKS bounced back
this week following an improvement in liquidity
conditions on the money
market. However this recovery appears to be
short-lived as the RBZ raised
its accommodation rate to 850 percent, an
indication that it would like to
see tight liquidity conditions continuing
in the market. With the month of
May fast approaching, it is not going to be
an easy job to maintain tight
liquidity.
Over $10 trillion is expected to mature next week but
it is by no means easy
to predict where interest rates are going. Worse
still the RBZ is yet to
give a clear signal how high they are willing to
raise them.
In light of the many inflationary pressures facing our economy,
my advice is
always assume the worst when it comes to interest rates, given
that
inflation is likely to continue rising in the short to medium
term.
Due to the tight liquidity conditions characterising our money
market,
short-term rates are likely to once again spike as banks avoid
punitive RBZ
rates by seeking accommodation from other investors. This will
probably see
short-term rates rise to around 500 percent in down days. In
other words
expect a lot of volatility on the money market in the coming
weeks as banks
try to manage their liquidity.
Investors have now adopted
a short-term view to the market and are unlikely
to accept investments with
tenures of more than 30-days as they seek to
maximise short-term returns.
91-day Treasury bill tender rates remain at 525
percent but are expected to
rise in the short term.
In the short-term the stock market is going to be
a very tricky place to
speculate in. In fact it will favour shrewd investors
who will take
long-term positions. There is no point trying to go against
the tide. There
is now need to seriously look at one's investment portfolio,
particularly
when it comes to the quality of stocks one is
holding.
Right now investor focus is firmly on counters with March
results. Some of
these companies are Delta, Art, Ariston, Cottco, Dawn,
Zimsun, ZSR, Redstar
and Mashonland Holdings. It will be interesting to see
what these companies
will report, particularly because they were trading in
a period in which
inflation was galloping and general trading conditions
were impossible.
Traditionally investors have always bought ahead of
results to avoid being
'left out' and we are yet to see evidence that this
trend is likely to be
repeated. There is simply not enough money to drive
the bulls on the market.
Where has all the cash gone, I wonder. Investors
are buying here and there
but it is really nothing to write home about. It
is also difficult to
decipher trends on the market as a result of the
volatility in our markets.
This week we saw investors reacting positively
to Econet's eight-month
results to February 2006. The results were for eight
months owing to the
change in the company's year-end. Looking at the results
one gets a rare
insight into the huge business opportunities in the mobile
phone industry.
Turnover for the two months of January and February 2006 was
$1.7 trillion
and attributable profits were nearly $400
billion.
Taking a straight-line annualised turnover figure, one gets $10
trillion for
the next 12 months giving an earnings per share figure of $15
527 a share if
the current trading pattern continues. Remember when Econet
last reported
subscribers had just risen from 258 268 to 412 197. Now that
the mobile
network operator has close to over 458 000 subscribers there is
likely to be
a multiplier effect on their numbers going forward.
The
company has positioned itself as a dominant player in the
telecommunications
industry and is certainly not going to disappoint
shareholders if its latest
results are anything to go by. What excites me is
fact that the company
continues to innovate and you can see that they are
trying to keep abreast
with technological developments in the telecoms
industry despite the
shortage of foreign currency.
There is a focus on the future rather than
survival under difficult
conditions. The introduction of broadband services
is one such development
that will increase revenues going into the future.
Mind you this is a high
margin business, which is likely to diversify income
streams as Econet
benefits from its early adopter advantage.
When all
is said and done I see value in the counter and would see it as not
only a
good long-term investment but also a core stock that deserves a place
in any
serious investor's portfolio.
FinGaz
Anthony Jongwe
THERE is
a growing battle for talent worldwide. In Zimbabwe, this skills
shortage is
the key driver of wage inflation, which is expected to increase
in 2006 as
civil servants and other employees make incessant demands for
cost-of-living
salary adjustments. It is this writer's view that here in
Zimbabwe, the
so-called 'brain drain' and the deleterious effects of
HIV/AIDS have spawned
the skills shortage. The 'brain drain' is projected to
continue as long as
the adverse economic conditions persist.
This week's instalment examines
closely the concept of brain drain. It
begins by defining "brain drain" and
proceeds to review literature on the
subject matter.
There appears to
be several definitions of "brain drain" Some scholars say a
"brain drain"
occurs when people leave home to study abroad, and then stay
abroad (Kwok
and Leland, 1982). Other say it occurs when people work and
study at home
when young, and work abroad when older (Lucas, 1988; Azariadis
and Drazen,
1990). Brain drain is traditionally viewed as the movement of
highly skilled
workers - sometimes referred to as knowledge workers - from
their home
countries to countries that offer them greater opportunities in
their area
of specialty as well as in terms of living conditions and
lifestyle (Tansel
and Gungor, 2003). However, another prevalent form of
brain drain is the
failure of students to return to their native countries
after going abroad
to study. In this instalment we shall use the term brain
drain simply to
mean the emigration of skilled workers - in the default case
emigration
permanently but in extensions to the discussion temporarily.
Africa is
suffering from a brain drain, losing one third of its
professionals to the
developed world. In Zimbabwe, it is estimated that
almost three million out
of the country's total 14 million Zimbabweans, the
majority of whom are
professionals, are living outside the southern African
country (UNDP, 2006).
The figure is estimated to comprise almost half of the
country's working
population. The International Organization on Migration
(IOM) says the
number of persons living outside their country of birth has
doubled over the
last 35 years. It estimates that more than 175 million
people are migrants
worldwide and that one in every 35 persons is a migrant.
"This trend can be
expected to continue in the coming decades," warns IOM.
The focus of most
brain drain studies is usually on researchers, scientists
and engineers
(RSE). This category of knowledge workers can be expanded to
include
medical, information technology, and business professionals (Mosley
and
Hurley, 1999; Arlene Richards, 2001; Janet Scott, 2002). It was
estimated
that in the past 10 years about half of the Ethiopians who went
abroad for
study or training did not return. In 1997 alone more than 1,000
professionals left Zimbabwe for Britain and there were now an estimated 10
000 Nigerian academics employed in the United States. In Ghana and Zimbabwe
three quarters of all doctors migrate within a few years of completing their
medical degree. (Naledi Pandor, 2006). The brain drain issue has received
considerable attention from the Zimbabwean media as a serious economic and
social problem particularly within the context of the protracted economic
crisis. Professor Chetsanga has also investigated Zimbabwe's brain drain
problem (2003).
From a global perspective, the issue of brain drain
is even more pronounced.
In the USA, 12.8 per cent of all US Research and
Development (R&D) workers
in 1993 were foreign-born, and 29.3 per cent
of the R&D workers with science
or engineering PhDs were immigrants
(Johnson and Regets, 1998). Most of the
OECD-born, immigrant scientists and
engineers with science and engineering
doctorates come from the United
Kingdom and Canada. If non-OECD countries
are included, there are three
times as many foreign-born scientists in the
USA from China and twice as
many from India as there are from the United
Kingdom. This reflects findings
(Johnson and Regets, 1998) that Asian
science and engineering PhDs in the
USA far outnumber Europeans and non-US
North Americans and that almost 40
per cent of them make firm plans to stay
(Peter Hall, 2005)
Having
defined brain drain and reviewed applicable literature on the issue,
we now
proceed to identify the key determinants of brain drain.
Understanding these
is key to evolving effective policy interventions. A key
question is why
knowledge workers move from source countries to destination
countries. For
individual migrants, migration offers the prospect of a
better life. For
each individual, there is a net gain wherever the benefits
of life in the
destination country exceed those in the country of origin and
the difference
between the two is not swallowed up by the costs of moving.
Benefits must be
interpreted widely to depend on both income and the range
of other
contributions to an individual's welfare - which, for a researcher,
will
include the interest and challenge of the work as well as the social
and
work environment more generally. It is assumed that workers only move if
they expect a net gain.
Standard economic models (Sjaastad, 1962;
Todaro, 1969) emphasise expected
income differentials as the main driver of
migration. However, non-economic
issues also play an important role in
migration decisions among knowledge
populations (Peter Hall, 2005).
According to Hall, ties of family, friends
and culture will exert a pull to
stay at home though in widely varying
degrees. For others, the attractions
of new experiences and a new start may
be strong. This is particularly true
for academic researchers where research
programmes are usually
self-determined. They will stay at home if, other
things equal, source
country offers a better base than destination country
for pursuing their
interests. A good example here would be the study of
ecological systems,
animal species or natural resources peculiar to source.
Business-based
researchers may stay home, too, if they continue to be
challenged by tasks
at least as interesting to them as they know are
available abroad. In brief,
the key determinants become the nature of the
tasks as well as the
professional environment.
Typically, discussion on the brain drain
invariably leads to an assessment
of the gains and losses associated with
the problem. According to Naledi
Pandor "What this means is that African
countries are funding the education
of their nationals only to see them
contributing to the growth of developed
countries with little or no return on
(their) investment," Although this
outflow is seen as a constructive dynamic
by some commentators, the
situation requires intervention especially if
Africa is to realise its
development objectives.
Studies show that
many immigrant scholars from the developing countries,
particularly from
Asia and Latin America, contribute tremendously in
development processes of
their native countries while still located abroad.
Migrant remittances
constitute a significant source of foreign exchange and
a strong element of
domestic demand in labour exporting countries,
representing a substantial
proportion of their export proceeds and their
GDP, even without counting the
often considerable flows through unofficial
channels. They play a role in
the economy of these countries in the form of
foreign exchange, the lack of
which puts a constraint on their development.
Chenery and Bruno (1962)
consider the lack of foreign exchange in LDC's as
an "external
strangulation" for development, depriving them of the required
capital
imports. Therefore, remittances, whose share in the available
foreign
exchange of labour exporting countries is high, may substitute for
the lack
of other sources, such as proceeds from exports or aid.
The remainder of
this instalment explores some of the policy interventions
that can be
pursued to counter the deleterious effects of the brain drain in
source
countries. According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Zimbabwe should urgently address push factors that have led to a massive
loss of skilled personnel. The UNDP contends that much of the brain drain
bedevilling Africa in general and Zimbabwe in particular, can be attributed
to 'a difficult macroeconomic environment and high cost of living and
taxation affecting disposable incomes and salaries'. The current brain drain
from Zimbabwe should not be viewed solely from the employment problem
created by the conditions of the ongoing economic crisis and ensuing
uncertainties. Smart labour (RSE workers) will be influenced by
international income differentials in making location decisions but they
will also be sensitive to the long-term prospects of being able to pursue
the problems that interest them. Increasing total government R&D
spending or
the share of basic research alone will raise a country's R&D
wages and,
ceteris paribus, retain and even attract (through circular
migration)
knowledge workers. Our Universities are losing experienced
academic
researchers because of poor investments in R&D.
It is
this writer's contention that the issue of brain drain will generate
intense
debate going forward in view of the raging global battle for talent
that is
unfolding. There is need for more research on the dynamics of brain
drain in
view of globalisation.
lAnthony Jongwe is a Harare based researcher and
writer with a keen interest
in People Management issues. He can be contacted
on cell: 091 713 653
FinGaz
Bornwell
Chakaodza
National Agenda
ONCE again, there was pomp and pageantry when
yet another 'new' economic
recovery programme dubbed the National Economic
Development Priority
Programme (NEDPP) was unveiled last week. As usual,
those who crafted the
'new' economic plan were congratulating themselves on
a job 'well done'. In
the words of the likeable but rather naïve Economic
Development Minister
Rugare Gumbo, "The Government, in partnership with the
private sector and
the Zimbabwe National Security Council (ZNSC) chaired by
President Mugabe,
has boldly grasped the nettle to address, in a holistic
manner, the
challenges facing this country . . .
"In order to achieve
the set objectives of economic stabilisation, inflation
reduction, foreign
currency mobilisation and use, and increased agriculture
coordination with
an adequate supply of inputs and food security, it was
important that
investor confidence and the positive image of Zimbabwe be
restored, key
infrastructure rehabilitated and developed while the
Government's domestic
and external debt would have to be reduced".
Fine words which sound
familiar from our erstwhile Minister of Economic
Development. But words in
themselves mean nothing, they remain just words
unless they are translated
into action. And it is very difficult if not
impossible to see how these
fine words can be translated into reality within
the next six to nine months
in the absence of political normalisation and
the resultant active
involvement of the totality of all Zimbabweans and the
international
community. This reality is the crux of the matter.
What the captains of
industry and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor said
at the launch
ceremony was spot on in terms of their commitment to
partnership with
government and creating a spirit of common concerns with
the aim of seeking
a cure to an economy that is terminally ill.
The problem always is the
lack of faith and confidence by the majority of
Zimbabweans and the
international community in a political system that has
not produced and will
not produce a sea change in people's fortunes unless
reformed or better
still, overhauled.
To me, this really is the bottom line and the sooner
everyone grasps this
simple fact the better for us all.
The
challenges that we are facing in this country and the past record of
these
initiatives require that journalists be sceptical about this 'new'
plan.
Those who spoke at the unveiling ceremony of NEDPP including the
Economic
Development Minister Gumbo were at pains to explain how this
so-called 'new'
economic blueprint was different from the previous
programmes which all
collapsed like packs of cards one after another.
The private sector was
also part and parcel of the previous initiatives. And
the government's
involvement was also at the highest level. So the
misgivings that are being
expressed by many people are not misplaced. It is
well founded in reality.
More so, when there is no political will on the
part of those who presently
wield political power to normalise Zimbabwe's
political
environment.
Vision 2020, Esap, Zimprest, National Economic Recovery
Programme (NERP),
the 10 Point Plan - these are some of the previous
blueprints that never saw
the light of day. And going through this 'new'
one, one can be forgiven for
concluding that what the ministers and their
officials did was simply to
dust off the previous programmes, change the
format and give it a new name:
the National Economic Development Priority
Programme (NEDPP). There is
nothing really new in NEDPP except the new
economic jargon that the
officials threw in here and there to make it appear
'different' from the
past failed initiatives. A question of old wine in new
bottles? Yaah!
Consider this: Vision 2020 and Zimprest among other
documents talked about
the need for Zimbabwe to attract both domestic and
foreign investment so
that the country can export, earn foreign currency,
retool industry, create
jobs and empower the people. All the previous
initiatives emphasized the
importance of investor confidence and the
promotion of a positive image of
Zimbabwe. On paper, these were clear and
visible blueprints and one is at a
loss to find out the differences between
them and the 'new' National
Economic Development Priority Programme (NEDPP).
Of importance is the fact
that the time at which the previous programmes
were put together (before the
turn of the new Millennium) was not as bad and
scary as the current
environment in which we find ourselves now. But the
initiatives failed all
the same. What success can we envisage in a much
worse environment - an
environment in which we have been isolated and
ostracized by the markets
which really matter and the refusal of most
Zimbabweans to buy into a
political system which has sentenced them to
poverty and untold suffering.
Forget about the Look East policy. Who does
not know that the Chinese, for
example are never big spenders. They move in
large groups and their
frugality is legendary. An individual western tourist
can spend as much as a
hundred Chinese put together if not more. Foreign
investment will remain
dead in the water as long as we pursue this so-called
Look East policy to
the exclusion of our long-established and trusted
traditional western
markets.
Putting all our economic policy eggs into
the Look East basket will not
solve our problems. Not in a thousand years!
This is one of the major
reasons why the 'new' economic blueprint will
remain a pipedream.
We are therefore entitled to ask Rugare Gumbo and the
cabinet as a whole:
What is so special about this 'new' economic blueprint
that in the next
three months, Zimbabwe can receive cash investment of
US$2.5 billion? From
where? With no food, no medicines, no fuel, no jobs,
power and water cuts
and economic hardships of sorts for the past six years,
you honestly believe
that in nine short months, the Zimbabwean economy would
have turned around?
Really?
Of course, there is nothing wrong with
giving people hope but it should not
be hope based on illusion and fantasy.
The key point that needs to be made
is that as journalists we will be doing
a great disservice to the Zimbabwean
public and being dishonest as hell if
we do not treat these endless economic
plans with scepticism and
disbelief.
Yes, I agree with Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono when he said
that "it is
not the responsibility of President Mugabe, the government and
the private
sector only to make things work but that the totality of all
Zimbabweans
beginning with the media will need to join hands and pull in one
direction,"
But I am sure the good governor does appreciate the fact that
the last thing
we need is a media that is a pipe organ for government and
politicians.
We need a press that is dedicated to the watchdog role.
Intelligent
scepticism can, and should be compatible with a basic belief in
progress and
it will be a big strategic mistake on the part of those charged
with the
responsibility of resolving the problems confronting this economy
if all
they expect from the media is praise-singing and sunshine stories.
That
produces neither light nor shade nor understanding of the processes.
Journalists are the country's eyes. They help the drivers of the process see
the pitfalls, see the unseen and know the unknown, change course, refine
things but with the train still on the rails and moving forward. I have no
doubt that the Reserve Bank governor and all the captains of industry would
agree with this position.
The active involvement of the totality of all
Zimbabweans not just those
aligned to the ruling party or submissive and
pliable is a very important
point. The economic meltdown that we are
experiencing and which can rightly
be described as an implosion can no
longer be left to one party to 'manage'.
Partisan posturing always hinders
progressive ideas and helps obscure the
real issues. The whole of the
private sector and civil society must buy into
the blueprint to avoid the
cynicism of 'it is theirs not ours'. After all,
we are all
Zimbabweans.
I see this as one of the greatest challenges facing the
'new' economic plan.
One does not have to be an economist to know that the
economic nosedive of
this country around 1997 and even earlier was heralded
by the almost
pathological refusal of government to listen to
well-intentioned warnings
and advice.
Esap, unbudgeted payments to
war veterans, our involvement in the DRC war
and of course the unplanned and
chaotic land reform programme are the major
events and bad decisions that
kick started and accelerated the economic
crisis and eventually sealed our
fate.
Talking about private sector buy-in, it is important to emphasise
that the
process should not only be confined to organisations and companies
such as
the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI), the Zimbabwe
National
Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC), Employers' Confederation of Zimbabwe,
Delta and
Dairibord Zimbabwe Limited.
Representatives of successful
companies such as TA Holdings Limited and
others must be taken on board. The
authentic labour body, the ZCTU needs to
be seen as a partner not as an
opponent if there is to be a successful
implementation of
NEDPP.
Candour, frankness and full frontal discussion: these are
essential for
peace, stability and change.
And of course, the full answer
to our nation's crisis will have to include,
whether President Mugabe likes
it or not, MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai.
Politics is at the heart of this
crisis. Zimbabwe is now a failed state and
President Mugabe has no option
but to seize the bull by the horns and either
pass on the torch or enter
into a political dialogue if the economy is to
completely heal and the
country prosper again. There is absolutely no other
way.
Anything else
including these unending economic blueprints will merely be
tinkering with
the edges of the nation's predicament and prolonging the
suffering of the
Zimbabwean people.
borncha@mweb.co.zw
FinGaz
No Holds Barred
THE one and only
"Doctor" who many say reading through his articles is like
wading through
glue will not agree with me. But the fact is that generally
speaking, the
role of the media is grossly misunderstood throughout the
world, moreso, by
the most despotic governments.
This makes journalism dangerous especially
under repressive and
authoritarian regimes where political cartoons and
jokes at the leadership's
expense are treason. Stories are told of how
diabolical soldiers and secret
servicemen devoid of any human kindness
murder critical editors and
journalists. They do this at the behest of
dictators who do not know what it
means to use power with sufficient
caution.
And as we edge a little closer towards World Press Freedom Day on
May 3, we
should not forget to remember that only last year, as reported by
Reporters
sans Frontiers (RST) , 63 journalists were killed the world over.
The
Committee for the Protection of Journalists (CPJ) puts the figure at a
conservative 47. Whatever the exact figure, even a single death through
murder is one too many. As if this was not enough, many more journalists are
languishing in various prisons throughout the world as "dangerous criminals
against the state". Their crime: they dared tell it like it is. It is for
the same reason that for journalists there is always the constant threat of
death and torture.
The situation is far from rosy in Zimbabwe where
we have witnessed the
systematic bullying and intimidation of the media
particularly under that
political sadomasochist, Jonathan Moyo, who got
pleasure from inflicting
pain on journalists and political opponents. Moyo's
vision of Zimbabwe was
one in which people do not have a right to express
their feelings, fears and
dreams. Newspapers were arbitrarily closed down
and journalists arrested on
flimsy grounds.
And it was always going
to be next to impossible not to clash with a system
as punitive as
Zimbabwe's if journalists do their job properly because it
inevitably earns
them the hostility or even hatred of the establishment. In
one form of
intimidation, the powers-that-be try to exert their influence
even on
independent newspapers by ratcheting up pressure on newspaper owners
to
depose critical editors and replace them with pliant ones. As one of the
scribes I wear the shoe and therefore know how and where it
pinches.
Of course the all-knowing "Doctor" earlier on alluded to,
together with some
ZANU PF apologists who will not be deterred by the minor
accident of total
ignorance from penning a definitive opinion on anything do
not see it that
way. To them it is as if the media is responsible for the
wars, conflicts,
diseases, failures, dictatorships, corruption, greed, crime
and dishonesty
that characterise the African continent today.
This is
why up to this very day when there is unanimity that for Africa to
have a
decisive rupture with its authoritarian present, the first sign of a
new
life should be the removal of media censorship and the chain-laws that
reinforce it, the "good doctor" is unbelievably bent on tightening the
screws and the restrictions so as to guide journalists piercing self-serving
government secrecy in search of the truth and information.
It is not
difficult to discern the motive of this seemingly arbitrary attack
on the
media. Contrary to what they say, it is not hatred for falsehoods
that
inspires these laws. It is hatred for freedom of the press, free speech
and
indeed what the US-based Freedom Forum calls free spirit for all people.
All
this is done to protect the political leadership on whom much flattery
is
constantly lavished and in turn appreciated as can be seen through the
Zimpapers titles and ZTV, which is as boring as watching the grass
grow.
I have always believed that for journalists it is what it is, be it
good,
bad or ugly. Which is why I find it quite some feat for the
journalists at
Zimpapers or ZTV to have done what they have done: the
difficult task of
looking at the depressing, lengthy economic crisis,
joblessness and grinding
poverty through some veil or more appropriately
rose-tinted spectacles when
the misery index tells its own tale. They
confuse reality with illusion, yet
facts are supposed to be sacred in
journalism. They even talk of an economic
turnaround when there is none and
of a bumper harvest when hunger stalks the
nation etc. The journalists in
these institutions have reduced themselves to
megaphones for the
politicians' conspiracy to lie to the nation about the
state of affairs in
the country. Suffice to say it is absurd for the
journalists in these
institutions to continue to debase themselves this way.
Unfortunately the
issue of media censorship by the government also touches
on the very core of
democracy because it is not possible to establish a
vigorous democracy
without two of its cornerstones - access to information
and the right to
free expression. Without these two, it can be anything else
but
democracy.
As observed by Thomas Blanton, author of White House E-Mail:
The Top Secret
Computer Message the Reagan-Bush White House Tried To
Destroy, the concept
of freedom of information is changing from the purely
moral stance as an
indictment of secrecy to one with more wide-ranging
value-neutral meanings
chief of which is bringing about more efficient
administration of
government. Simply put, it helps foster a transparent and
accountable
government by among other things exposing waste, fraud, abuse
and criminal
activity.
In Zimbabwe stories that immediately come to
mind are those on the abuse of
the VIP housing scheme, and the War Victims
Compensation Fund, Willowgate
scandal, farm grab scandal, United Merchant
Bank scandal, etc. The media did
its job but the major problem has been,
except for one case, persistent lack
of action by the authorities even after
the information is obtained and
presented.
Of course I will be the
first to admit it. News is susceptible to
manipulation. And indeed, we have
seen flashes of sensationalism in the
independent media to downright
falsehoods, unfairness and bias in the state
media where as I have said
before, Jonathan Moyo, erased the distinction
between reporting and creative
writing.
Examples abound. First there was the surrealistic article about
anthrax mail
supposedly targeted at Jonathan Moyo (published in The Herald
on January 10,
2002). Secondly, there was that work of popular fiction that
is fit for a
James Bond script (published in The Chronicle of April 22,
2002) about the
MDC planning to bomb high-rise buildings in Harare and
Bulawayo to
fast-track Morgan Tsvangirai to State House. I remember how,
after reading
the article in The Chronicle I laid the paper down because I
could not
continue reading. I felt a deep sense of sadness for journalism -
a
profession for which I have a passion.
All I'm saying is that
journalists in Zimbabwe are aware that it is not just
a question of a free
but fair, accurate, balanced and non-partisan press as
well. As said by
Charles Overby, the then chairman of Freedom Forum: there
is a tendency to
pit a free press against a fair press. But it should not be
one or the
other. It needs to be both.
It is as simple as that. And those Zimbabwean
journalists who are like
Ukrainian philosopher Olesksa Tikhy's "thinking
particles of the universe,"
are only too aware of this. They know that a
free press has the
responsibility to be fair. Hence the concerted efforts to
establish a
self-regulatory independent media council.
The million
dollar question is, if the media is playing such a crucial role,
why then do
some within the Zimbabwean government feel it necessary to come
up with
objectionable pieces of legislation that make it difficult for
journalists
to carry out their duties without fear or favour? Given the need
for
transparency, the need for people to participate in governance and
decision-making processes and the fact that government policies should be
open to public scrutiny and debate, do restrictive media laws not smack of
ever-shrinking accountability? Are these the actions of a government that
does not have anything to hide? Do these people have a desire to consider
the interests of a rapidly changing Zimbabwe?
Indeed, if the media
fulfills mankind's most basic need to know and the
survival of democracy
depends on the free flow of ideas and information, why
doesn't Zimbabwe, as
a constitutional democracy let the freedom speak?
FinGaz
Kumbirai Mafunda
PROMINENT
construction and industrial group Murray and Roberts (M&R) has
shut down
four of its branches as Zimbabwe's economic crisis reaches
catastrophic
levels.
M&R's chief executive officer Canada Malunga told The
Financial Gazette this
week that although opportunities for infrastructural
projects were abundant
in the country, the risk for some of them was now so
high that they could
not be viably undertaken.
M&R was therefore
discontinuing operations at its Bulawayo, Redcliff,
Bindura and Chiredzi
branches.
The Chiredzi branch was the leading concrete dam and canal
contractor in the
Lowveld.
Malunga said the construction giant had taken
the decision to wind down the
Chiredzi operations after recording shrinking
business opportunities in the
area.
He said raw and building material
shortages emanating from Zimbabwe's
foreign currency crisis had severely
crippled the construction giant's
operations.
"We have decided to do
away with our mechanical business due to diminished
opportunities over the
years," said Malunga.
The mechanical division, which falls under
M&R's contracting operations,
comprised management of major structural
and mechanical engineering
projects.
The electrical division, which
is also being discontinued, was involved in
major infrastructural,
electrical and telecommunication projects in a number
of
industries.
"That business is no longer core," Malunga said of the
mechanical and
electrical operations.
The M&R boss said the
construction sector, which heavily relies on imported
raw materials, had
been hardest hit by the country's economic crisis, which
is characterised by
record-high inflation of 913 percent, a hard currency
squeeze and energy
constraints.
"The construction industry has been the worst affected by
hyperinflation,
and the market has diminished over the years," Malunga
said.
He said M&R had already moved all its equipment to Harare while a
"harmonious" retrenchment of the affected employees was being
finalised.
Malunga said M&R's structural steel fabrication facility,
which supplies
structural steel to the construction and telecommunications
industries,
would remain open.
FinGaz
Rangarirai
Mberi
THE Zimbabwe dollar fell for the first time in three months on the
official
interbank foreign currency market yesterday, going down a marginal
one
percent.
The Zimdollar traded at $101 193.6, down from $99
201.80, after trades on
Tuesday exceeded the US$5 million required to move
the exchange rate.
Foreign currency purchases were seen at US$6 197 727.30
against sales of
US$6 142 736.27.
Daily trades had recently been
averaging US$600 000-US$700 0000.
This is the first time the exchange rate
has moved since January 24, when
the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe introduced
measures that tie the movement of
the rate to actual daily volumes
traded.
The measures have been criticised by exporters as a virtual cap on
the
exchange rate, but central bank governor Gideon Gono this week denied
fixing
the rate, saying it was up to the market to bring in the volumes
required to
move the rate.
The interbank rate however still lags rates on
the parallel market, where
dealers quoted the US dollar at a mid-rate of
$217 000 yesterday.
FinGaz
Rangarirai
Mberi
CENTRAL bank governor Gideon Gono's recent statements on interest
rates
point to further rate hikes ahead, but critics say he is unlikely to
get the
result he desires from his aggressive rate policy if government
cannot tone
down its borrowing. Gono raised the accommodation rate by 50
percentage
points to 800 percent after the markets closed on Monday. Shares
moved only
a touch lower on Tuesday in reaction, reflecting how the markets
have taken
the new move on rates.
Warning that Zimbabwe was
"confronted with the threat of high inflation",
Gono has sent out a clear
signal that he is not any closer to reaching the
"end of the line" on the
rate front. Following the release of March
inflation data, up a record 913.6
percent, Gono had remained silent, raising
speculation that central bank now
felt it had exhausted the rate hike as a
tool against
inflation.
RBZ's hawkish stance on rates has driven the bank rate to 800
percent from
95 percent within only a year, but without gaining any ground
on inflation.
But Gono said on Monday he would "continue to maintain a tight
monetary
policy stance, characterised by maintenance of positive real
interest rates
and short money market positions", remarks analysts say point
to more rate
hikes ahead - and further damage for industry.
"It was a
surprise but maybe not really a surprise. After he had given the
market the
silent treatment, we thought something else was afoot. But it
seems we are
continuing on that same old path and if there is no support
from all sides,
these rate hikes will ultimately cause even more damage," an
analyst said
yesterday.
Analysts say this new attempt will not help RBZ slow
inflation, blaming
government borrowing for much of the credit expansion.
Even if banks raised
their own lending rates, there would be no impact on
inflation as business
has long stopped borrowing from banks, where lending
rates are now over 650
percent.
"I think the policy is self-defeating
because on one hand you discourage
borrowing by companies and on the other
you want to curb speculative
borrowing yet the government is the main player
by borrowing to pay interest
on its debt," University of Zimbabwe professor
of business Anthony Hawkins
told Reuters.
The 91-day TB rate has been
at 525 percent for over a month, and Gono said
the market should not expect
"a one-on-one link" between the accommodation
rate and the TB and OMO rates
as the real rates on the Treasury Bills and
OMO bills were already well
above inflation.
Gono has cautioned players to "pitch their sales strong
enough to withstand
the inevitable liquidity storm that ordinarily comes
with the vigorous
anti-inflation thrust the Reserve Bank will continue to
maintain, until the
job is done".
FinGaz
PERSONAL GLIMPSES
JUST
how impervious the ruling elites are to the sensibilities of the people
is
demonstrated by press reports last weekend about extravagant and
non-performing Harare Commission chairperson, the embattled Sekesai
Makwavarara, rushing off in a panic to enlist the First Lady, Grace Mugabe's
support to enable her to keep her lucrative
job.
Despite having caused countless ructions because of
her lack of any
demonstrable leadership capabilities and her
single-mindedness in exploiting
her position only to enjoy a lavish
lifestyle, Makwavarara remained unmoved
and unconcerned as long as she was
assured of keeping her job. As far as she
was concerned, the ratepayers of
Harare could shout until doomsday about her
endless bungling and profligacy
and she would not give a hoot as long as her
position was not
threatened.
Not once, amid the countless outcries her ineptitude and excesses
sparked,
did she feel she owed the residents of Harare an explanation. She
did not
call a single press conference to clarify her position or to
reassure the
residents that she would make amends. It was business as usual
as she
thumbed her nose at the struggling masses in the city who, in the
absence of
any service delivery, were obliged to continue paying through the
nose to
finance Makwavarara's and her fellow commissioners' extravagant
lifestyles.
As last weekend's press reports showed, the Chairperson of
the Commission
that is supposed to be running the affairs of the City of
Harare was only
galvanised into a reaction of any kind at all when the hue
and cry about her
shopping and spending sprees reached a crescendo even in
the official press.
But then, instead of doing the honourable thing and
owning up to the people
to whom she is accountable, Makwavarara chose to run
to "Mother Grace" to
enlist the First Lady's support. Memo to First Lady:
The struggling masses
would view your influencing the President to protect
non-performers and
parasites as a hostile act.
It is a sad reflection of
how far things have gone out of control that
Makwavarara is not the only
holder of high office in Zimbabwe today who
feels neither a hint of guilt
nor a pang of conscience about being in public
life only to pursue
self-interest and self-enrichment. Her shameful example
is the norm rather
than the exception. The nation is, in fact, being milked
dry left, right and
centre by crooks posing as patriots and revolutionaries.
These greedy and
corrupt individuals are responsible for exacerbating and
prolonging the
deprivation and suffering of the generality of the people who
are not
connected to the extensive political patronage network. It's
criminal but
the powers-that-be continue to look the other way. For how long
can this
continue?
These leeches have become so daring at doing anything they want
for
self-aggrandisement and personal gain that one wonders whether they are
answerable even to the head of state and ruling party. There have been
numerous instances when the culprits in the endless scandals and rackets
that have been exposed within government have been identified and the public
has expected them to be brought to book. But everyone now knows what happens
to these fraudsters who pose in nationalistic and patriotic clothing. Their
cases are always swept under the carpet and some are even rewarded with more
lucrative posts. That is why despite the fact that the Anti-Corruption
Commission is reported to be investigating Makwavarara and the Harare City
Council, it would not be surprising to learn that they have been exonerated
despite the mountains of evidence against them. The impoverished and
long-suffering residents of the city can cry blue murder but their protests
will fall on deaf ears. We have seen enough examples of this pretence of
going through a probe before.
The culture of official deceit,
subterfuge and outright fabrication, all in
a bid to avoid acknowledging
situations as they are on the ground is so well
established that there are
even designated bootlickers-cum- hatchet men at
the ready to savage anyone
who perceives a different reality. These attack
dogs are themselves
beneficiaries of the ruling party's patronage system and
will therefore not
countenance anyone who rocks the boat and thus threatens
their positions at
the feeding trough.
Makwavarara's case is such an unfortunate example of
official imperviousness
to public opinion because of the high-handed manner
in which she was
catapulted to the top position in the Harare City Council.
She has done far
worse than the first popularly elected executive mayor of
Harare, from whom
the ruling party demanded and got its pound of flesh.
Although she was
touted as someone who had been roped in to put things back
in order,
Makwavarara has only succeeded in being a symbol of ZANU PF's
bullying
tactics and refusal to accept its rejection by urban voters. She
has failed
spectacularly to deliver as chief executive of the city and as a
trailblazer
supposed to demonstrate what women can do when appointed to key
decision
making positions.
Some people have charged that the press
has judged Makwavarara too harshly
and that pointing out her shortcomings
and deploring her excesses has
amounted to failure to support the push for
gender equity. I beg to differ.
Affirmative action, gender quotas and
protocols should not be about
appointing puppets to leadership positions to
enable them to catch up with
the males in the areas of corruption, avarice,
inefficiency, insensitivity
and lack of accountability. Those who are
fortunate enough to clinch these
positions are supposed to bring new
perspectives and dynamics in terms of
dedication to service,
professionalism, humaneness, integrity and fair play
for the benefit of the
people they are supposed to serve.
Makwavarara has never shown herself to
be concerned about or aware of any of
these ideals. She has predicated her
presence at Town House entirely on
Local Government Minister, Ignatius
Chombo's noblesse oblige. The minister
had his own ulterior political
motives for installing a clueless sycophant
to do his biding but this cannot
be described as gender sensitivity by any
stretch of the imagination. It is
an insult to the women's cause in that a
capable woman somewhere who should
have clinched the post on merit has been
held back while residents were
forced to endure and finance the comedy of
errors staged by the odd couple
of Chombo and Makwavarara.
FinGaz
TWO years ago,
July 29, 2004 to be exact, we warned in our editorial
entitled, Wither The
Golden Leaf, about the imminent collapse of the key
tobacco
sub-sector.
Given the terrifying decline in tobacco production - a
microcosm of falling
production in agriculture, the engine that once powered
the economy now
grappling with rising inflation, falling industrial and
employment levels -
we stated that it was all gloom and doom. We foresaw
very tough times ahead
for the sub-sector.
Our fears were not without
foundation although government apologists felt
that they were exaggerated.
Unfortunately, those fears have come to pass.
The sector faces an uncertain
outlook as can be exemplified by the initially
slow-motion but now
progressively accelerating decline in tobacco
production.
And what is
the upshot of it all? As the situation stands, tobacco
production this year
is projected at an estimated 45 million kg, just a
paltry 18 percent of its
pre-crisis levels when the country produced 250
million kg in 1999, which
accounted for 33 percent of its foreign currency
earnings. In real terms,
this was close to $700 million even as prices on
the international market
were relatively soft due to the rise in the global
supply of tobacco. The
fall in the production and decline in the quality of
tobacco is
disappointing but not unexpected.
Opinions on the reasons for this
disturbing trend are starkly divided. Those
opposed to the approach, style
and form of the land reform exercise, which
they said was a recipe for
disaster, feel that the facts and figures on the
sorry state of tobacco
production are attributable to the chaotic nature of
the agrarian reforms
which failed to strike a careful balance between legal
security and economic
flexibility to provide optimum opportunity to achieve
their strategic
objectives. And to these critics, the deep-seated crisis in
the tobacco
sub-sector reads more like a chronicle of a catastrophe
foretold. Of course
government dismisses this as a see-through red-herring
by those caught
between reality and insecurity in the face of the land
reform initiative.
Others still, blame the trend on crippling agricultural
inputs, a by-product
of lack of planning and upside-down priorities on the
part of the government
which we have decried time without number.
Whatever the reasons for the
decline, this is a worrying trend because it
can only have serious
ramifications for the battered economy. Indeed, not
only will it exacerbate
the economic meltdown but the decline in the
production of tobacco, the
country's erstwhile premier export commodity
together with gold also becomes
more frightening when looked at in the
context of the absence of critical
balance of payments support following the
fallout between Zimbabwe and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) over
policy issues. This is moreso, coming
as it does against a backcloth of a
marked slowdown in overall export
performance.
The other issue is that although it has been argued that the
quality of
Zimbabwe's tobacco, geared for the unmanufactured international
leaf market,
should protect the country's market, there is now the real
danger that the
country could lose its markets if the declining production
continues
unabated.
True, the locally produced tobacco has over the
years had a wonderful
footprint on the international markets. Having
established a reputation for
quality, Zimbabwean tobacco has enjoyed a
customer pull. There has always
been a gap for the local leaf especially for
blending purposes by
international cigarette manufacturers.
Be that
as it may, international buyers need guaranteed supply because they
are in
it for the long haul. They do not buy tobacco on an ad hoc basis. And
given
what is happening in Zimbabwe right now, chances are they could look
elsewhere for fear of being caught flat-footed in the event of the local
industry collapsing. It is a matter of prudence for any business that
supplies of raw materials or even finished products be constantly
reliable.
It is not far-fetched therefore to postulate that the steep
drop in tobacco
production might have sent such shock waves to the
traditional markets that
they could already be casting around for
alternative suppliers to avoid
disruptions to their operations due to the
Zimbabwean drag. The risk of
tobacco export market loss therefore looms
large for Zimbabwe. This should
be of grave concern because it would not be
easy for the country to
recapture those markets once they have been
lost.