Sokwanele : 1 April 2008

Ten more seats have been announced. This means a total of 141 constituencies have now been formally declared by the ZEC. Zanu PF are still leading by two seats (with a total of 69) and the MDC Tsvangirai are still behind with 2 seats (67 in total so far). MDC Mutambara still have 5 seats.

Buhera West
MDC MT 8527 / ZPF 6773 / IND 290 /

Chikomba West
ZPF 9173 / MDC MT 4609 /

Chipinge South
MDC MT 8248 / ZPF 5085 / MDC AM 1974 / Donga 343 / PAFA 309 /

Chivi Central
ZPF 8228 / MDC MT 6471 / IND 452 /

Dangamvura Chikanga
MDC MT 9965 / ZPF 3654 / MDC AM 1073 / IND 310 /

Magunje
ZPF 4587 / MDC MT 4264 / MDC AM 1607 / UPP 294 /

Mkoba
MDC MT 8590 / ZPF 2334 / MDC AM 619 / IND 373 / IND 158 /

Mutasa Central
MDC MT 9228 / ZPF 4746 / MDC AM 1381 / IND 357 /

Mwenezi East
ZPF 9696 / MDC MT 2477 / IND 588 /

Shurugwi South
ZPF 5058 / MDC MT 1977 / IND 1946 / MDC AM 754 / MDC MT 553 / IND 419 /

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Robert Mugabe 'in talks over resignation'

The Telegraph


By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor, Tom Chivers and agencies
Last Updated: 7:43pm BST 01/04/2008

Advanced talks are believed to be under way between the Zimbabwean
government and opposition over whether President Robert Mugabe should
resign, as results from the country's elections look increasingly likely to
declare an opposition win.

A US State Department official has said that the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) party is in talks with the incumbent Zanu-PF
over Mugabe stepping down.

"I know that there are supposedly at various levels ... discussions
between representatives of the opposition and representatives of the
government," the State Department official said when asked about the talks
between the ruling party and the opposition over Mugabe's future.

The possibility of an end to Mugabe's 28-year rule was increased by
comments from an unnamed official in Zanu-PF, who said that he was trying to
gain agreement from the army chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga.

"He is prepared to step down because he doesn't want to embarrass
himself by going to a run-off," the ZANU-PF source said on condition of
anonymity.

"There is only one person still blocking him, the army chief of
staff."

European diplomats in the capital Harare agreed, saying that a deal
had been done for Mugabe to step aside for opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai.

"Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power smoothly," said one
of the sources.

A second European diplomat said that Tsvangirai had called a press
conference for later in the evening.

"It (the press conference) indicates at least that Tsvangirai feels
secure and that he has something to say."

The latest results from the country's election give the opposition a
narrow lead over Zanu-PF party but there are mounting suspicions of vote
fraud.

With declarations from 131 of the 210 seats in the lower house of
parliament, MDC have 67 while Zanu-PF have won 64.

But no results have been announced in the crucial presidential contest
between Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai.

Although voting finished on Saturday night, the Electoral Commission
has not given any indication of the outcome of the presidential poll.

Independent observers believe that Mr Tsvangirai probably won. But Mr
Mugabe's critics believe the regime is preparing the ground to announce a
falsified result that will place him ahead.

On Sunday night, the president met his military commanders and
security chiefs at his residence in northern Harare.

This group, known as the Joint Military Command, reportedly heard that
Mr Mugabe had lost the poll but the option of conceding defeat was not even
discussed.

The signs are that the Election Commission will release the results
slowly over the next few days, allowing popular feelings to dissipate,
before giving a narrow margin of victory to Mr Mugabe.

But Lovemore Sekermayi, the chief elections officer, said the delays
were simply down to logistical difficulties and the “meticulous” process of
verifying the count.

“The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission would like to advise the nation
that it is currently receiving the presidential results from various
provinces,” he said.

“The verification and collation of these results will commence in the
presence of all candidates or their national chief election agents once all
the results have been received. We would therefore like to urge the nation
to remain patient as we go through this meticulous verification process.”

Zimbabwe opposition, govt deny talks on Mugabe exit

Reuters

Tue 1 Apr 2008, 17:43 GMT

HARARE, April 1 (Reuters) - Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and the
Zimbabwe government both denied on Tuesday that they were in talks to
arrange the resignation of President Robert Mugabe.

"There is no discussion," Tsvangirai told a news conference. He said his MDC
party would not enter any deal before full election results were announced.

Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga told the BBC: "There is no deal.
There is no need for a deal." He added: "There are no negotiations
whatsoever because we are waiting for the presidential results"


ZIMBABWE'S TSVANGIRAI SAYS "THERE IS NO WAY" MDC WILL ENTER INTO DEAL BEFORE
POLL RESULTS ANNOUNCED (Reporting by Marius Bos

Mugabe under pressure to concede

Financial Times

By Alec Russell, Southern Africa Correspondent

Published: April 1 2008 19:44 | Last updated: April 1 2008 19:44

Talks are underway between Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic
Change and some senior security officers in President Robert Mugabe’s regime
to try to gain their support in the wake of the apparent sweeping MDC
victory in last weekend’s elections.

Diplomats and MDC officials however denied speculation sweeping Harare that
a deal was all but complete paving the way for Mr Mugabe to step down in a
smooth transfer of power. MDC officials close Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader,
also dismissed a report that Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s president, had
brokered an agreement between the opposition and security chiefs.

The discussions are still in a preliminary stage and are aimed at sounding
out the mood of generals who may be more dovish than the hardline commanders
of the police and armed forces, according to people familiar with the talks.
Simba Makoni, a former finance minister who is Mr Mugabe’s other challenger,
is said to have played a leading role in the sensitive discussions, relying
on his old contacts in the ruling Zanu-PF party.

A key interlocutor is believed to be Solomon Mujuru, the former army
commander and a Zanu powerbroker who it has long been speculated supported
Mr Makoni’s presidential bid from behind the scenes.

The contacts were made as Mr Mugabe was coming under mounting pressure from
his Zanu-PF party to accept he was beaten in the elections as party insiders
pinned their last hopes on a possible presidential run-off in three weeks’
time.

Stunned by results indicating a comfortable victory for the MDC in the
parliamentary and presidential polls, some in Zanu-PF have seized on an
independent projection that Mr Tsvangirai may fall just short of the 50 per
cent plus one vote threshold to avoid a run-off.

The MDC were confident on Tuesday that would be avoided and that final
results would give Mr Tsvangirai more than 50 per cent. But senior MDC
officials conceded that if the state-appointed Zimbabwe Election Commission
(ZEC) substantially fiddled with the remaining results yet to be published,
they might face a run-off.

“The worst-case scenario is a run-off and it’s still a possibility,” said
Ian Makone, the MDC’s chief election strategist. “But I am happy to relish
the idea.”

Three days after the polls closed, results were still only trickling out of
the ZEC, reinforcing the belief among diplomats and analysts that Zanu-PF
was stalling for time as Mr Mugabe considered his options. The latest
official results gave the MDC 67 and Zanu-PF 64 out of the 210 seats in the
lower house.

There were no results given for the presidential race, fuelling speculation
among MDC activists that the 84-year-old autocrat was planning to concede
defeat in the parliamentary race, but still clinging to the hope that he
could avoid losing power to Mr Tsvangirai.

Professor Jonathan Moyo, a former close presidential aide, who ran as an
independent MP, said Zanu-PF politicians were now relying on a run-off but
that they would never win it. “A run-off will annihilate them. There is no
way he [Mugabe] can win it.

“Right now they are trying to see how they can avoid a run-off but it is
inevitable.”

Mood in the MDC has gone from despair on Monday following the news that on
Sunday night Mr Mugabe’s security chiefs argued in favour of fiddling the
results, to optimism on Tuesday.

Professor John Makumbe, a political analyst and outspoken Mugabe critic,
said “behind the scenes” some of the chiefs of staff were talking to the MDC
about “transitional arrangements”.

“He [Mugabe] is still arguing for a run-off, but they [some of his generals]
were telling him there are no grounds for that.”

But diplomats cautioned that, while preliminary talks were under way, it was
far from clear that a deal had been struck. “To give it up to Tsvangirai
would stick in his [Mugabe’s] craw,” said one diplomat.

A projection by the independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network, (ZESN)
underlined the difficulty the ZEC would have in producing a result that gave
Mr Mugabe outright victory. It gave Mr Tsvangirai 49.4 per cent, with Mr
Mugabe 41.8 per cent and his other challenger, a former finance minister,
Simba Makoni, 8 per cent. The findings, based on a random survey of more
than 400 polling stations across the country, have a 2.4 per cent margin of
error.

The MDC fears a three-week campaign for a run-off would see a return to the
state intimidation that scarred the last presidential election in 2002.

But it shares Prof Moyo’s belief that it would be very difficult for Mr
Mugabe to win a second round given that his aura of invincibility has been
shattered by the first-round results, and the scale of the country’s
economic implosion.

Based on the results pinned to the doors of polling stations, MDC officials
said they had few quibbles with the first 131 results released by the ZEC.

They said that, overall, they were confident they had won 98 out of 168
seats, giving them, with 12 or so seats for the other wing of the MDC, a
clear parliamentary majority over Zanu-PF.

Informal Talks Seek Way Out of Office for Zimbabwe's Mugabe

Washington Post

By Craig Timberg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, April 1, 2008; 2:15 PM

HARARE, Zimbabwe April 1 -- President Robert Mugabe's grip on power
continued to loosen Tuesday as a range of informal contacts began between
his inner circle of advisers and opposition figures over how to break a
stalemate resulting from last weekend's election, sources said.

With evidence increasingly clear that Mugabe came in second, behind
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, news reports and other sources said
members of the president's camp have reached out to the opposition in search
of a deal that would allow him to step down gracefully, while avoiding
prosecution for any crimes committed while in office.
These talks have been tentative and conducted through emissaries so far,
said sources with knowledge of the discussions.

"It's clear that he has lost the vote," said Zimbabwe Independent political
reporter Dumisani Muleya, who said he had conversations Tuesday with several
senior advisers to Mugabe. "They're trying to find some way to resolve this
issue."

The initiative so far has come from Mugabe's camp, said Muleya. Several
officials from the opposition, called the Movement for Democratic Change,
have repeatedly and vehemently denied entering into negotiations with
Mugabe.

"It's not true," said George Tshibotshiwa, spokesman for Tsvangirai. "We are
not in talks with anybody."

Mugabe, 84, who has ruled Zimbabwe since its founding in 1980, has been
under intense diplomatic pressure since Saturday's vote to step down. A
sophisticated statistical model by an independent observation group based on
a sampling of results projected that Mugabe lost that vote by a margin of 49
to 42 percent.

The opposition has repeatedly claimed to have won, both the presidential and
parliamentary elections.

No official results from the presidential vote have been released by the
government's electoral commission, although partial parliamentary results
show that opposition forces were narrowly ahead of the ruling party.

A result of less than 50 percent in the presidential contest could force the
two top candidates into a runoff, but numerous reports say that Mugabe is
seeking to avoid facing a second round of voting that might consolidate
opposition against him.

A range of other possibilities remained as Zimbabweans waited to see whether
a president who has defined nearly every aspect of national life for 28
years would fall. Sources suggested that Mugabe's top advisers, and even the
president himself, remained undecided.

"They are not really unified," said political analyst John Makumbe, a
longtime critic of Mugabe, who said he had direct knowledge of the
conversations between the two camps.

He predicted that Mugabe's departure was imminent. "They know they cannot
make it. They know he cannot survive a second round," Makumbe said.

Zimbabwe parties discuss Mugabe resignation: U.S.

Yahoo News

By Cris Chinaka 1 hour, 31 minutes ago

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition MDC
are believed to be discussing whether President Robert Mugabe should resign
after last Saturday's election, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.

A State Department official said the talks followed projections showing
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai would beat
Mugabe in the election but fall short of the 51 percent voted needed to
avoid a runoff.
"I know that there are supposedly at various levels ... discussions between
representatives of the opposition and representatives of the government,"
the State Department official said.

"I know there were discussions that were going on but we will see what
happens and when it happens," he added.

But MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti strongly denied persistent media
reports, some citing MDC sources, saying the opposition was in talks on a
Mugabe exit.

"I have answered that question a hundred times. I am sick and tired of
answering that question. It's rubbish, absolute rubbish," he said.

Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980 but faced
an unprecedented challenge in the elections because of a two-pronged
opposition attack and the economic collapse of his once prosperous country,
which has reduced much of the population to misery.

A senior Western diplomat in Harare told Reuters the international community
was discussing ideas to try to persuade Mugabe to step down. "But I don't
think there is anything firm on the table."

TALKS "EXPLORATORY"

The diplomat said the aim was to persuade Mugabe to concede defeat and avoid
a runoff in three weeks.

"A lot about what is being said is very speculative, based on conjecture.
What I know is that there are a number of ideas being floated around in the
international community to try to persuade Mugabe to go," he said.

"At the most, if there is anything going on right now, it would be very
exploratory, people probing for opportunities."

Two ZANU-PF party sources said on Tuesday its projections showed Tsvangirai
getting 48.3 percent, against Mugabe's 43 percent, with former finance
minister Simba Makoni taking eight percent.

Independent election monitors projected a similar outcome.

The New York Times Website earlier reported Mugabe's advisers were
negotiating his resignation with the MDC because Mugabe considered the
prospect of a runoff demeaning.

The opposition and international observers said Mugabe rigged the last
presidential election in 2002. But some analysts say the groundswell of
discontent over an economy in freefall is too great for him to fix the
result this time without risking major unrest.

Zimbabweans are suffering the world's highest inflation of more than 100,000
percent, food and fuel shortages, and an HIV/AIDS epidemic that has
contributed to a steep decline in life expectancy.

No official results have yet emerged on Saturday's presidential poll. The
opposition charges that the delay veils attempts by Mugabe to hang on to
power by rigging the vote.

(Additional reporting by Nelson Banya, MacDonald Dzirutwe, Stella
Mapenzauswa and Muchena Zigomo; Writing by Barry Moody; Editing by Matthew
Tostevin)

Mugabe ready to step down: sources

Yahoo News

by Godfrey Marawanyika 1 hour, 14 minutes ago

HARARE (AFP) - Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe is ready to step down after
he accepted he failed to win the country's presidential election, a senior
source in his ruling party and diplomats told AFP Tuesday.

An official in Mugabe's ZANU-PF party said the president was prepared to
step down after 28 years in power but was still trying to win agreement from
the army's chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga.

Three European diplomats meanwhile said opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
was ready to deliver a press conference to confirm the news.

"He is prepared to step down because he doesn't want to embarrass himself by
going to a run-off," the ZANU-PF source said on condition of anonymity.

"There is only one person still blocking him, the army chief of staff."

Senior diplomats in the capital Harare meanwhile confirmed that a deal had
been done for Mugabe to step aside in favour of opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai.

"Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power smoothly," said one of
the sources.

A second European diplomat said that Tsvangirai had called a press
conference for later in the evening.

"It (the press conference) indicates at least that Tsvangirai feels secure
and that he has something to say."

Various sources had earlier confirmed that senior members of Tsvangirai's
Movement for Democratic Change party and aides to Mugabe had been holding
negotiations about an exit strategy since Monday.

The talks opened after it became clear that Mugabe, who has ruled the former
British colony since independence in 1980, had been beaten in the
first-round of the presidential election which was held simultaneously with
parliamentary elections on Saturday.

The ruling party source said it now appeared that Tsvangirai had won around
48 percent of the vote -- not enough for an outright majority -- but that
Mugabe did not want to suffer the indignity of going through a second round
run-off with Tsvangirai later this month.

The MDC is confident that it has won both the presidential and parliamentary
elections and is already slightly ahead of ZANU-PF in the legislative count
with two-thirds of the results declared.

However there has still been no official results from the presidential
contest, prompting MDC accusations that the authorities were desperately
trying to cook up a way to keep Mugabe in power.

While there has so far been no significant violence in the aftermath of the
poll, news that Mugabe was ready to step down came after a coalition of
rights groups warned the country was teetering on the brink of anarchy.

In a petition to the regional 14-member Southern African Development
Community and the African Union, a coalition of 18 rights organisations
urged them to exert pressure for the rapid announcement of the presidential
result.

"We... have found it necessary to send this urgent petition to your
excellencies in order to save our country from potentially sinking into
complete anarchy if election results are manipulated," the petition said.

The elections were held as Zimbabwe grapples with an inflation rate of over
100,000 percent and widespread shortages of even basic foodstuffs such as
bread and cooking oil.

The 84-year-old Mugabe, Africa's oldest leader, has blamed the economic woes
on the European Union and the United States, which imposed sanctions on his
inner circle after he was accused of rigging his 2002 re-election.

Tsvangirai makes no direct win claim in first remarks

Monsters and Critics

Apr 1, 2008, 19:35 GMT

Johannesburg/Harare - Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change
leader Morgan Tsvangirai said Zimbabweans had voted for change in Saturday's
elections, without outright claiming victory over longtime leader, President
Robert Mugabe.

Appearing in public for the first time since the combined presidential,
parliamentary and local elections, in which the MDC moved quickly to claim
victory, Tsvangirai said: 'The votes cast on Saturday were a vote for change
and a new beginning.'

'Zimbabwe will never be the same again,' he said.

The 56-year-old MDC leader, while insinuating he had won, said he would
refrain from declaring victory before the official results were announced.

'We will exercise restraint and leadership as we have exercised over the
years,' the longtime opposition leader said, while urging the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission to proceed 'with haste' in the vote count.

Three days after the election, the electoral commission has yet to issue
results from the presidential vote. With over two-thirds of the House of
Assembly (lower house of parliament) seats counted, the MDC had a slight
lead over Zanu-PF.

The MDC claims it swept the polls with 60 per cent of the vote.

'Mugabe's exit will not be meek'

IOL

    April 01 2008 at 05:03PM

Robert Mugabe, having ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist for 28 years,
has a handful of options if he really has lost weekend polls, including
calling troops onto the streets or going into exile.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change is convinced its leader
Morgan Tsvangirai has beaten Mugabe and results from Saturday's contest for
president are being kept back while he cooks up a plan to stay in power.

The MDC is hopeful that Mugabe will concede defeat and retire,
indicating he would not be pursued over alleged rights violations.

He might also try to cut a deal with his opponents to be given some
form of honorary position in recognition of his role over so many decades.



A recent report by the International Crisis Group said: "A negotiated
settlement need not necessarily remove Mugabe," adding: "He might, for
example, serve as a non-executive head of state during a transitional period
until new elections can be held."

Mugabe could potentially go into exile, with his absence from public
since casting his ballot on Saturday fuelling speculation that he has
already fled to a friendly such as his regular port-call of Malaysia or
Namibia.

However long-time Mugabe watchers say his very nature precludes him
pursuing such a meek exit strategy, leaving him with the possibility of
either trying to rig the outcome or look to the army for survival.

Mugabe's spokesperson George Charamba has already hinted at sending
troops onto the streets by saying any premature victory claim by Tsvangirai
would be regarded as a coup, before adding: "We all know how coups are
handled."

Army chiefs have so far remained loyal to Mugabe, with the chief of
staff Constantine Chiwenga saying prior to the poll he would not salute
anyone who not fought in the country's liberation war, a reference to
Tsvangirai.

"The most sinister (option) is that he would declare the results to be
null and void. This would place him in significant conflict with the
opposition who would contest his decision," said Pretoria-based analyst
Chris Maroleng.

"This would have a high degree of violence attached to it, and could
see clashes" between the MDC and forces loyal to Mugabe.

However Maroleng said such an option carried big risks as Mugabe was
no longer guaranteed the loyalty of the armed forces.

"He is receiving diminished support from the security sector who have
been his main backers."

Several reports say Mugabe considered over the weekend imposing
martial law as the opposition had pre-emptorily declared itself the winner.

However he was urged to hold back and allow the count to continue.

On the eve of the vote, state media ran a poll which gave Mugabe 57
percent of the votes against 27 percent for Tsvangirai in a move some
analysts saw as paving the way for an eventual result at odds with
opposition projections.

The exile option was alluded to by Mugabe last year when he
acknowledged speculation about him fleeing to Malaysia, whose ex-premier
Mahathir Mohamad is an old ally.

Uganda's late dictator Idi Amin was given shelter in Saudi Arabia
while former Ethiopian strongman Mengistu Haile Mariam has been living in
Harare since being overthrown in 1991.

In a speech in Harare last August, Mugabe stressed: "I was born, here
I grew up and here I will be buried."

But John Makumbe, an analyst at the University of Zimbabwe, said exile
was most likely scenario.

"What I think he's trying to do is to negotiate the issue of
retribution or whether he will be allowed to stay here, but I don't see him
living in this country for too long because of crimes against humanity,"
Makumbe said.

Tsvangirai, himself assaulted by the security forces last year, has
indicated he has no desire for vengeance.

"If Mugabe would accept the results peacefully and say: 'Look thank
you very much I accept the results... I think a lot of people would say:
'Let's let bygones be bygones," he told Britain's Observer newspaper
recently.

However Heidi Holland, granted a rare interview recently with Mugabe
for a new psychological profile, said he would never voluntarily give up
office.

"I am sure emotionally he is quite incapable of admitting defeat," she
said. "He has built himself up into a world where he can only be right, he
can't be wrong.

"His traditional response to disillusionment or rejection is revenge,
that you can see throughout his career. I don't know who would be able to
persuade him he should accept defeat." - Sapa-AFP

'One man blocks Mugabe's resignation'

 

    April 01 2008 at 08:34PM

by Godfrey Marawanyika

Harare - Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe is ready to step down after
he accepted he failed to win the country's presidential election, a senior
source in his ruling party and diplomats said on Tuesday.

An official in Mugabe's Zanu-PF party said the president was prepared
to step down after 28 years in power but was still trying to win agreement
from the army's chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga.

Three European diplomats meanwhile said opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai was ready to deliver a press conference to confirm the news.

"He is prepared to step down because he doesn't want to embarrass
himself by going to a run-off," the Zanu-PF source said on condition of
anonymity.

"There is only one person still blocking him, the army chief of
staff."



Senior diplomats in the capital Harare meanwhile confirmed that a deal
had been done for Mugabe to step aside in favour of opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai.

"Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power smoothly," said one
of the sources.

A second European diplomat said that Tsvangirai had called a press
conference for later in the evening.

"It (the press conference) indicates at least that Tsvangirai feels
secure and that he has something to say."

Various sources had earlier confirmed that senior members of
Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change party and aides to Mugabe had
been holding negotiations about an exit strategy since Monday.

The talks opened after it became clear that Mugabe, who has ruled the
former British colony since independence in 1980, had been beaten in the
first-round of the presidential election which was held simultaneously with
parliamentary elections on Saturday.

The ruling party source said it now appeared that Tsvangirai had won
around 48 percent of the vote - not enough for an outright majority - but
that Mugabe did not want to suffer the indignity of going through a second
round run-off with Tsvangirai later this month.

The MDC is confident that it has won both the presidential and
parliamentary elections and is already slightly ahead of Zanu-PF in the
legislative count with two-thirds of the results declared.

However there has still been no official results from the presidential
contest, prompting MDC accusations that the authorities were desperately
trying to cook up a way to keep Mugabe in power.

While there has so far been no significant violence in the aftermath
of the poll, news that Mugabe was ready to step down came after a coalition
of rights groups warned the country was teetering on the brink of anarchy.

In a petition to the regional 14-member Southern African Development
Community and the African Union, a coalition of 18 rights organisations
urged them to exert pressure for the rapid announcement of the presidential
result.

"We... have found it necessary to send this urgent petition to your
excellencies in order to save our country from potentially sinking into
complete anarchy if election results are manipulated," the petition said.

The elections were held as Zimbabwe grapples with an inflation rate of
over 100 000 percent and widespread shortages of even basic foodstuffs such
as bread and cooking oil.

The 84-year-old Mugabe, Africa's oldest leader, has blamed the
economic woes on the European Union and the United States, which imposed
sanctions on his inner circle after he was accused of rigging his 2002
re-election. - Sapa-AFP

Zimbabwe fears possible 'state of emergency'

SABC

April 01, 2008, 18:00

Zimbabwe's civil society organisations have petitioned SADC heads of state
to push for the release of full election results.

The eighteen organizations fear that president Robert Mugabe's preparing to
declare a state of emergency. They suspect it's to pre-empt any protests
that may arise from the expected announcement of the presidential elections.

The organizations want SADC governments to discourage Mugabe from doing so.
This comes as riot police and the army continue to patrol the streets in
cities around the country.

Zimbabweans uneasy
Question marks over the outcome of the presidential race are fuelling a
sense of anxiety and frustration on the streets of Harare and throughout the
country. Further compounding this unease is the increased movement of riot
police and the army, especially at busy centres like this taxi rank.

Civil society is concerned that the slow release of results - coupled with
the mobilization of security - may signal the prelude to a state of
emergency.

Security remains tight
"They want to prepare society for a very close tie so that they can
manipulate the outcome and in the process. If people want to express
themselves, they have already deployed the police, and they've already
mounted their guns, says Arnold Tsunga, the Chairperson of the Crisis
Coalition in Zimbabwe.

But police say there's nothing sinister about their heavy presence. "There's
no such instruction of a state of emergency, and we're not anticipating
one," says police spokesperson, Wayne Bvudzijena.

Mugabe's Way Out

Forbes

Lionel Laurent, 04.01.08, 2:45 PM ET

LONDON - With vote-counting in Zimbabwe effectively in limbo, and President
Robert Mugabe reportedly negotiating an exit, the southern African state
seemed to be on the brink of a major turning point on Tuesday.

Mugabe is the only leader Zimbabwe has known since its independence in 1980,
but on Tuesday it seemed as though his violent and economically disastrous
rule was close to an end. With opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
reportedly far ahead of Mugabe following Saturday's presidential and
parliamentary elections, press reports claimed the leader's advisers were
negotiating a possible exit strategy with Tsvangirai.

"Mugabe's security officers are reportedly in discussions," said Andebrhan
Giorgis, a Kenya-based senior adviser for International Crisis Group, but he
was unable to confirm the reports.

The possibility of Mugabe leaving is apparently only at discussion stage,
but it is a sign that tensions in the country have been piling up since the
elections. The ruling Zanu PF party has refused to give a deadline for the
vote count, while Tsvangirai and his MDC party have not shied away from
claiming victory or accusing Mugabe of rigging the elections. (See "Zimbabwe
Presidency Hotly Contested")

Pressure from the international community has also been on the rise. Foreign
Minister Dimitrij Rupel of Slovenia said Mugabe should step down on Tuesday,
adding that to do otherwise would be a "coup d'etat." On Monday, ministers
from major European countries including France and Britain, asked the
Zimbabwean electoral commission to "swiftly announce" the official election
results.

Ultimately, however, the seeds of Mugabe's possible departure have been sown
on a far more long-term basis. Eight consecutive years of economic
contraction, along with inflation rates that topped 100,000% this year, have
only served to erode the close-knit power-base that kept Mugabe afloat. (See
"Zimbabwe Falters Under Mugabenomics")

One of the more potent examples of this came with the election itself, which
saw a long-time member of the Zanu PF party stand as an independent
candidate. Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, left the inner circle of
the Zanu PF politburo in February to compete against Mugabe, a decision that
led the president to label his former cabinet member a "prostitute."

Now it seems Mugabe's fiercely loyal security chiefs are anticipating grave
difficulties if the president forcibly maintains his hold on power. The only
legitimate alternative might be a potentially humiliating run-off election
against Tsvangirai, which could be one embarrassment too many for Mugabe.

Zimbabwe Suspense: Is Mugabe Done?

Time

Tuesday, Apr. 01, 2008 By ALEX PERRY

On Tuesday Zimbabwe entered its third day of waiting for the results of a
general election amid mounting evidence that the opposition had narrowly
defeated President Robert Mugabe — and increasing suspicion that his ruling
regime was trying to rig the results. But as the delay continued,
speculation grew over the reasons for manipulating the results.

Members of the opposition have two theories. The first is that Mugabe is
trying to push himself over the 50% mark and win the election outright —
though they say that is increasingly difficult given the amount of
unofficial results indicating otherwise. The second theory is that the
84-year-old Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 28 years, is trying to
negotiate an exit. That is the more likely scenario, says David Coltart, a
newly reelected member of parliament from Bulawayo. Speaking to TIME by
phone, Coltart said, "It is increasingly clear that Mugabe has lost the
support of the rank and file of the army and the police." The armed forces
have become Mugabe's main support as his popularity plummeted amid the the
country's economy disintegration. South Africa's Mail & Guardian is
reporting negotiations between the opposition and Zimbabwe's military and
security apparatus.

Nevertheless, Zimbabwe citizens say they will not be surprised if Mugabe
finds a way to stay on. "Nothing is going to happen," says one resident of
Bulawayo, who asked not to be named. "He is clinging to power because he has
so much to lose." If Mugabe were to leave office, they point out, he could
suffer the fate of Charles Taylor, the former President of Liberia, who is
now awaiting trial in the International Criminal Court.

Officially, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has thus far released results
for 131 out of the parliament's 210 seats. According to that preliminary
count, Mugabe's Zanu-PF won 64 seats, while the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) won a total of 67. But five of those opposition
seats went to a splinter faction that has broken off from the MDC and its
leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, Mugabe's main rival.

The commission has yet to release any results on the presidential poll, held
simultaneously on Saturday. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a
non-governmental group, said a sample it conducted of 435 polling
stations—5% of the total—showed Tsvangirai winning 49% of the presidential
vote, Mugabe 41% and Simba Makoni, a former finance minister who split from
Mugabe, 8%. If final results show that no candidate received more than 50%
of the vote, Zimbabwe's electoral law would mandate a run-off between
Tsvangirai and Mugabe within three weeks.

Mugabe was once a darling of Africa for his overthrow of white supremacist
rule in what was then known as Rhodesia, and was praised in the West for
Zimbabwe's excellent education system and relative prosperity. More recently
he has become a failure and an embarrassment. Zimbabwe's economy has
collapsed: unemployment is 80%, inflation is 100,000%, and up to 3 million
Zimbabweans have fled the country. Mugabe regularly rails against
homosexuals and a Western conspiracy to recolonize Zimbabwe. His regime is
riven with corruption, with senior figures allotting themselves large tracts
of farmland seized under Mugabe's anti-white land reform process. Wealth
depends on political power in Zimbabwe, and in the run-up to the vote,
senior regime figures, including the head of the army and the prison
service, ordered their officers to vote for Mugabe and vowed that, even if
he lost, the security services would continue to support him.

Now the delays in releasing the results have prompted speculation that the
regime is attempting to fix the poll. There are ample grounds for suspicion:
elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005 were marred by violence and rigging. In
Washington on Monday, U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey urged
that the results be released. "The opportunities for mischief increase the
longer the delay is between the elections and the announcement," he said.
Earlier in the day, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described Mugabe as
a "disgrace," while British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned that the
"eyes of the world" were on Zimbabwe. Most foreign observers and journalists
have been banned from covering the election.

Aside from the slow drip of parliamentary results, there has been no word
from the regime since Saturday's vote. Neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai have
appeared in public, nor released any statement. Senior ministers are also
staying hidden and not answering their telephones. Riot police have been
deployed on the streets of the capital, Harare. There have been no clashes
so far, but the limbo in Zimbabwe leaves residents there, and observers
abroad, anxious about how it will end. With reporting by Howard
Chua-Eoan/New York

Poll Count Drags On As Mugabe Plays for Time

SW Radio Africa (London)

ANALYSIS
1 April 2008
Posted to the web 1 April 2008

Lance Guma

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission continued presenting official results at a
snails pace Tuesday, amid speculation that Mugabe's regime was playing for
time after a shock election defeat to the MDC. Unofficially the opposition
has won enough seats to form the next government but as Macdonald Lewanika
from the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition observed, figures can still be
manipulated for the presidential vote.

Lewanika spoke to Newsreel from the ZEC command centre and says although the
results are coming in, province by province, the commission is not
announcing them in that order. They are picking results randomly and jumping
from one province to another, to present a picture showing the MDC and Zanu
PF running neck and neck.

Lewanika also said discrepancies were emerging between what ZEC is
announcing and the figures the opposition and independent groups have for
most constituencies in Mashonaland Central and West. The winning margins for
Zanu PF in the two Bindura constituencies were cited as examples, as were
the winning margins of Zanu PF in Goromonzi and Vice President Joyce Mujuru
in Mount Darwin West.

Pressure groups and the MDC have already demanded the V11 forms that were
signed by the contesting parties at the close of counting at the polling
stations. Although these were requested on Monday the state controlled
electoral commission has not yet provided them. Fears are also mounting that
any inflated Zanu PF victories will be used to shore up Mugabe's
presidential vote count and force either a second round run off with Morgan
Tsvangirai, or simply to declare Mugabe the winner by the slimmest of
margins.

The advantage for Mugabe is that he could then use his presidential powers
to dissolve an opposition controlled parliament. In the absence of official
clarification the speculation is endless.

Mugabe’s sister and the white farmer

The First Post
 Tuesday April 1, 2008

Zimbabwe's beleaguered President Robert Mugabe has not only recalcitrant
voters to cope with. He also has to deal with a personal tragedy. His elder
sister, Sabina Mugabe, died in hospital on Sunday, after a long illness.

Sabina served her brother's Zanu-PF party for 20 years as an MP. But she is
best remembered for the manner by which she acquired a previously
white-owned farm in Mugabe's controversial land redistribution programme.

She was known to tour farming areas in her black Mercedes, looking for
choice properties, and in 2002 she visited the 400-acre Gowrie Farm of Terry
Ford, in Norton, 40 kilometres west of Harare. Sabina told Ford that she
wanted his farm. Ford refused to hand it over.

Later that year a gang of so-called war veterans began to threaten Ford, but
the farmer, described by friends as a 'gentle giant', still refused to go.
After a night of further threats, his body was found by neighbours in the
morning. He had been badly beaten, then shot in the head.

Ford was, by most counts, the tenth white farmer to lose his life in the
cause of land reform in Zimbabwe. It was claimed at the time that Sabina was
in no way connected.

Our silence is deafening

Justice Malala: Monday Morning Matters

Published:Mar 31, 2008

What will we say when our children ask what we did to end Robert Mugabe’s
dictatorship?

When our children learn the history of post-colonial Africa, they will be
confronted with a case history: Zimbabwe.

They will learn how the bread basket of Africa descended into chaos, with
the highest inflation rate in the world.

They will learn that about four million Zimbabweans fled hunger and
political persecution.

They will learn about a kleptocracy that lined its pockets while the poor
died.

This will not be a history lesson. It will be a dissection of a massacre.

By the elections of March 29 2008, our children will read, the average life
expectancy of a Zimbabwean woman was 34 years and that of a man 37.

Television footage of that day will show women with babies on their backs
crawling under barbed-wire fencing into South Africa in the hope of finding
food, safety and a life for their children.

Election day 2008 will be a slice of tragic history.

Our children will learn that, in a country with one of the highest literacy
rates in the developing world and blessed with a vibrant press for more than
two decades, only two daily newspapers inside Zimbabwe reported on these
elections.

Both were owned by the state and neither published a single positive story
about the opposition in the run-up to elections.

On that day, election observers from Europe and the US were banned from the
country. Only SADC observers were allowed in.

Our children will learn that during the previous election the South African
observers were beaten up by police. And that those bandaged heroes declared
as free and fair an election universally condemned as rigged.

Election day 2008 will be remembered for the fact that broadcasters such as
Sky News filed their stories from Beit Bridge in South Africa because they
were banned from entering Zimbabwe. Independent stations such as South
Africa’s e.tv were also banned.

Our children will learn that police inside the polling booths “assisted”
Zimbabweans to vote. They will read that these same police had, for 10
years, put a stop to any kind of democratic activity by the opposition or
civil society.

They will learn that, only a year before these elections, the same police
officers destroyed the homes of thousands in President Robert Mugabe’s
inhumane “Operation Murambatsvina”.

Our children will learn that these same police beat opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai to within an inch of his life only a year earlier, forcing him to
seek medical treatment in South Africa.

At this point our children will ask the teacher (perhaps a Zimbabwean who is
a naturalised South African): “But what did our parents do? What did South
Africa say when all this was happening?”

And our children will learn that for nine years the president of South
Africa pursued a senseless, immoral policy of “quiet diplomacy”.

In essence, the policy meant that South Africa chose to be friends with
Mugabe, aiding and abetting the dictator while desperate Zimbabweans fled
torture and imprisonment.

They will learn that Nelson Mandela, the iconic first president of the new
and democratic South Africa, spoke out about leaders who clung to power at
the expense of their people and was told to shut up; that Archbishop
emeritus Desmond Tutu spoke up and was vilified by the dictator Mugabe, the
South African presidency and its acolytes.

And they will learn that most South Africans expressed neither outrage nor
shame at what was happening just across their border; that they went about
their business without a care.

Our children will learn that a good man, Father Paul Verryn, gave refuge to
hundreds of Zimbabweans in his church in central Johannesburg. And they will
learn that police raided the church and arrested refugee children as young
as five months old.

By the time our children ask what South Africans did about this outrage,
Zimbabwe will be just another African country paying off massive debt to the
World Bank when it could have been a beacon of peace, prosperity and hope.

The silence of your parents, the history books will say, was deafening.

About Justice Malala

Justice Malala is one of South Africa's most respected political
commentators and journalists.

A former newspaper editor, he is currently a media consultant and is the
resident political analyst for independent television channel e.tv.

Malala was an executive producer on Hard Copy I and II, a ground-breaking
television series on SABC 3 which recently won the Golden Horn Award for
best television series.

Malala was founding editor of ThisDay, the quality, upmarket South African
daily newspaper which was launched on October 7 2003 and folded a year
later. Between 1999 and 2002 Malala was the Sunday Times Correspondent in
London and New York.

Malala was awarded the Foreign Correspondents Association’s Award for
Outstanding Journalism in 1997. He also won the Adult Basic Education Book
of the Year Award for his novella, Before the Rains Come, that year.

His work has been published internationally in newspapers such as The
Guardian, The Independent, Financial Times, Institutional Investor, The Age
and The Observer.