Reuters
Thu 3 Apr 2008,
5:34 GMT
JOHANNESBURG, April 3 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's President Robert
Mugabe has
admitted to his family and advisers that he has lost the most
important
election of his 28-year rule, South African financial daily
Business Day
reported on Thursday.
Mugabe lost control of parliament
for the first time since independence in
1980 and the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) said he had
also been defeated in a presidential
election last Saturday and should
concede defeat.
Business Day said
Mugabe had privately conceded defeat and was deciding if
he should contest a
run-off vote needed because MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai
failed to secure a
clear majority.
"Mugabe has conceded to his closest advisers, the army,
police and
intelligence chiefs. He has also told his family and personal
advisers that
he has lost the election," Business Day quoted an unidentified
source as
saying.
The newspaper said hardliners in Mugabe's
government wanted him to see the
contest through to the bitter end, but that
personal advisers and his family
want Mugabe to quit.
The ruling
ZANU-PF and Mugabe's spokesman were not immediately available for
comment.
Mugabe, known for his fierce and defiant rhetoric, has not
been seen in
public since the vote.
In final results of the election
for parliament's lower house, the Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC) won
99 seats, while Mugabe's ZANU-PF won 97
seats and a breakaway MDC faction
won 10. One independent candidate won a
seat.
Results for
parliament's upper house, the senate, will be issued next.
No official
results have emerged in the presidential vote.
Widely blamed for economic
collapse of his once prosperous nation, Mugabe
has faced growing discontent
with the world's highest inflation rate of more
than 100,000 percent, a
virtually worthless currency and severe food and
fuel shortages.
The
opposition and international observers said Mugabe rigged the last
presidential election in 2002. But some analysts say discontent over daily
hardships is too great for him to fix the result this time without risking
major unrest.
The mainstream MDC faction said its Tsvangirai had won
50.3 percent of the
presidential vote and Mugabe 43.8 percent according to
its own tallies.
(Reporting by Marius Bosch; Editing by Catherine Evans)
Washington Times
By
Geoff Hill
April 3, 2008
JOHANNESBURG — South Africa's
ruling African National Congress (ANC)
yesterday made clear that it expects
the government of neighboring Zimbabwe
to accept the results of Saturday's
election, in which the opposition won an
outright majority in parliament and
could unseat long-ruling President
Robert Mugabe.
Final
results announced early today gave the combined opposition parties 109
seats
in the 210-seat parliament, compared to 97 for Mr. Mugabe's Zimbabwe
African
National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), which has been in power
since
1980. One independent was elected and three seats remained vacant
because of
the deaths or withdrawals of candidates.
Opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai appeared close to victory in the
presidential vote but could
still face a runoff against Mr. Mugabe.
Pretoria's intervention
was striking for its tough tone following years in
which South Africa was
criticized by human rights organizations for its soft
stance toward the
Mugabe government.
In a clear call to the Zimbabwe army, whose
leaders had stated they might
not accept a loss by Mr. Mugabe, the ANC asked
"all institutions of state to
respect the outcome of the election and work
together with the government of
the day to earnestly address the challenges
the country faces."
Presidential, parliamentary and municipal
elections were held in Zimbabwe on
Saturday, but it was only late yesterday,
under pressure from Mr.
Tsvangirai"s opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) that the
electoral commission announced some of the
results.
Ballots were counted at individual polling stations
within hours of the
election, and the delay in announcing results promoted
fears that ZANU-PF
was trying to rig the vote.
Most Western
countries, including the United States, refused to accept the
outcome of
similar elections that returned Mr. Mugabe to power in 2002 and
2005, citing
widespread reports of violence, torture and fraud.
The Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission announced the final results of the
parliamentary ballot early
today but has still not announced the outcome of
the presidential count.
Yesterday afternoon, the MDC unilaterally released
its own estimate,
claiming a victory for Mr. Tsvangirai with 50.3 percent.
MDC
Secretary-General Tendai Biti read out the figures at a press conference
in
Harare.
Mr. Mugabe, he said, had secured just 43.8 percent
with the remaining votes
going to independent candidate Simba Makoni, who
defected from ZANU-PF weeks
before the election.
If these
results are confirmed, it will not be enough to give Mr. Tsvangirai
the
presidency. A winning candidate must achieve at least 51 percent,
otherwise
a runoff must be held within 21 days.
The government had
warned that any attempt to reveal figures before an
official announcement
had been made would be "regarded as a coup d"etat."
Although
Zimbabwe's state-controlled radio and television stations made
scant mention
of the election on last night"s news bulletins, reports from
external radio
stations such as Voice of America, had reached Harare and
Zimbabwe's second
largest city, Bulawayo, and crowds were cheering on the
street and blowing
whistles thought to have been distributed by the MDC.
"It is
incredible, we are free at last, this will be a new start," one of
the
revelers, Mpumelelo Ngwenya said in Bulawayo.
"My family has
lost everything the past few years, there is no work,
nothing, but we can
start again if we know Mugabe has gone."
Unemployment in
Zimbabwe is above 80 percent and the local dollar which at
independence from
Britain in 1980 was stronger than the American currency
now changes hands at
Z$38 million to $1.
Diplomatic sources in Harare said there
appeared to be confusion within
ZANU-PF on how to handle the loss of power,
with a small group of
hard-liners arguing for the election to be declared
null and void.
But with most of landlocked Zimbabwe"s fuel,
electricity and other imports
passing through South Africa, they said that
the warning from Pretoria would
likely put an end to any thoughts of hanging
on.
Zimbabwe"s northern neighbor, Zambia, has backed up the
South African demand
for a smooth change of
government.
In the capital Lusaka, Defense Minister George
Mpombo said last night his
government was "monitoring the situation very
closely."
"We hope they will manage the situation properly,"
he said.
New Zimbabwe
By Fikile Mapala and Torby Chimhashu
Last updated:
04/03/2008 03:48:53
ZANU PF lost control of Zimbabwe’s parliament on
Wednesday in the biggest
power shift since the country won independence from
Britain in 1980.
Official figures showed the two rival Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC)
factions had won 105 seats in the 210 seat
parliament, with one going to
Professor Jonathan Moyo, an independent. Zanu
PF was trailing on 94 with 10
more seats still at stake.
The MDC
split into two factions in 2005. The faction led by founding leader
Morgan
Tsvangirai has the lion’s share with 96 seats so far, and nine went
to the
other faction led by Arthur Mutambara.
The MDC’s dramatic win in
parliament saw seven ministers fall by the wayside
as the party penetrated
deep into Mugabe’s traditional rural strongholds.
Justice Minister
Patrick Chinamasa was the first to face the music in Makoni
Central,
Agriculture Minister Joseph Made was sunk in Makoni West and Women’s
Affairs
and Gender minister Oppah Muchingura was simultaneously rejected in
Mutasa
Central – all considered safe seats for Zanu PF going into the
election.
Energy Minister Mike Nyambuya ran out of power in Mutasa
North, Mines
Minister Amos Midzi was dug out of Epworth and veteran Chen
Chimutengwende,
the Minister of Public and Interactive Affairs, was sent
packing in Mazowe
Central.
Voters delivered further carnage, driving
Transport Minister Chris Mushowe
out of Mutare West.
The MDC, having
swept 11 contested seats in the second largest city of
Bulawayo, may yet
claim an eighth member of Mugabe’s outgoing cabinet –
Information Minister
Sikhanyiso Ndlovu -- when voters go to the polls in
Mpopoma constituency
where the election was delayed by the death of Milford
Gwetu, a Mutambara
MDC candidate and incumbent MP.
The MDC’s stunning success in the
hinterlands –for long the bedrock of
Mugabe’s success – was the key to
unlocking Mugabe’s stranglehold on power.
Zanu PF yielded in Masvingo,
Manicaland, Midlands , Mashonaland East and
Mashonaland West where Mugabe
previously enjoyed sweeping dominance.
Analysts say a collapsed economy
and rising poverty connected rural
populations with the change message of
the opposition.
Business Day
03 April 2008
Wilson Johwa and Karima
Brown
SA
IS closely involved in behind the scenes attempts to stabilise Zimbabwe
in a
process that officials have described as “delicate and sensitive
”.
Although foreign affairs said it would comment only once
all election
results had been finalised, Business Day understood that as the
facilitator
in the regionally mandated talks to stabilise the situation in
Zimbabwe, SA
was in continuing contact with the main contenders in the
presidential race.
The intention was to persuade the parties to either
conduct a run-off
election later this month or negotiate an amicable
settlement for President
Robert Mugabe.
“The situation is very
delicate and sensitive and SA will not join the
chorus of calling for all
sorts of things about the results while we know
that will not solve the
matter,” sources close to the process said.
President Thabo Mbeki was
believed to be involved in secret negotiations
with sections of the security
establishment to stave off possible military
intervention in the event that
Mugabe loses to the leader of the Movement
for Democratic Change, Morgan
Tsvangirai.
The African National Congress (ANC) also yesterday urged
state institutions
in Zimbabwe, including the army, police and intelligence
services, to
respect the outcome of Saturday’s
election.
The party’s secretary-general, Gwede
Mantashe, said the ANC made the call
because the elections were an
“emotional” issue and called on all
Zimbabweans to act within the
law.
Mantashe would not be drawn on speculation that Mbeki was trying
to broker a
deal involving some generals in the Zimbabwean
army.
Presidential spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga dismissed reports of
SA’s
involvement in the Zimbabwe process as complete “fabrication”. He said
SA
was merely part of the Southern African Development Community -led
initiative to stabilise Zimbabwe.
However, it is understood that
SA was worried about the possibility of
violent clashes should voters on the
ground be under the impression that the
results were being withheld so they
could be rigged.
SA was said to be working hard at helping
Zimbabwe manage the situation that
had the potential of turning thousands of
Zimbabweans into refugees
overnight.
Reports from Zimbabwe point
to heightened security, particularly in the
major centres and along the
country’s borders. Military personnel in
civilian clothing had been deployed
within the customs department on the
Zimbabwe side of the Beitbridge border
with SA.
Military intervention by some sections loyal to Mugabe had
always been a
threat as Tsvangirai was never fully accepted as a
“legitimate” leader.
Meanwhile, MDC secretary- general Tendai Biti
this week indicated a change
in attitude of his party towards Pretoria by
publicly thanking Mbeki for his
role in midwifing the unfolding
transition.
Institute for Security Studies African Security Analysis
Programme head
Wafula Okumu warned that too much focus was being placed on
getting rid of
one person. With Hopewell Radebe
Business Day
03 April 2008
Mariam
Isa
A
LEGITIMATE change of regime in Zimbabwe is likely to generate
international
goodwill and immediate financial support for the country’s
battered economy,
top US rating agency Standard & Poor’s said yesterday.
It would
also be likely to have positive spinoffs for SA and other countries
in the
region, through both improved foreign investor perceptions and
flourishing
trade, said Konrad Reuss, S&P’s MD for SA and sub- Saharan
Africa. “If
you have regime change in Zimbabwe and a government that has
legitimacy,
there would be a significant amount of goodwill on the
international side,”
he said.
“That would be a favourable context to do a deal with
creditors in the
international community, such as the International Monetary
Fund, the World
Bank, or the African Development Bank.”
News late
yesterday showed President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu (PF) party had
failed to win
the election for the first time in nearly three decades,
losing to the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
“If the election and the
outcome truly reflect the people’s vote it would be
a very positive signal
for SA and the region in general,” Reuss said .
Several years ago,
Zimbabwe’s political and economic woes had knock-on
effects on SA’s
financial markets, but analysts say global investors have
become more
discerning.
Reuss said major western donors such as the US and the
European Union would
also be likely to step in with significant capital
injections to resuscitate
Zimbabwe’s economy.
But he believes it
will take time before the private sector pumps large
amounts of money into
the country, which has been mired in a recession for
nearly a decade and is
saddled with external debt of about $5bn.
Domestic debt is about double
the size of Zimbabwe’s gross domestic product,
and inflation is rising by
more than 100000% — making it the world’s
highest.
An Africa
London-based analyst who did not want to be named said it would
probably not
take too much effort or time to pull Zimbabwe’s economy back
out of its
abyss.
“All you would need, given the right supportive factors, would
be an
injection of external funds to stabilise the country and stop growth
in
domestic debt,” the analyst said.
“Zimbabwe’s economy still
has long-term positives going for it. It has the
best human capital in
Africa, vast commodities wealth and an infrastructure
that wouldn’t take
much to start again.”
IOL
April 03 2008 at
06:42AM
By Fiona Forde
Senior members of
Zimbabwe's security forces and Zanu-PF have met
Robert Mugabe to persuade
him not to contest a second round of elections
while Simba Makoni paves the
way for a government of national unity.
The ruling party on
Wednesday lost control of parliament and it is
expected that the official
presidential results will force Mugabe into a
run-off against Morgan
Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC), despite Tsvangirai's
insistence that he won the lion's share of the
vote - 50.3 percent,
according to unofficial results.
Advisers to Makoni, the former
finance minister, said negotiations
were laying the groundwork for a
government of national unity that would
include not only the MDC, but also
Zanu-PF. Makoni would take on a senior
role with extended executive
powers.
"Simba wants to be at the top," said Godfrey Chanetsa,
Makoni's
right-hand man and a former spokesperson for Mugabe.
"He didn't enter this campaign to play second fiddle. He came in to
lead.
"This country doesn't need regime change now. It needs
new leadership.
And many people believe Simba is the man who can bring this
country to the
level that it should be."
But the likelihood of
Tsvangirai handing over the reigns to Makoni,
who won only a fraction of the
vote, is slim.
"But this is not about numbers," Chanetsa said. "The
eight percent is
an illusion. Many people were afraid to vote for Simba,
afraid of letting
Zanu-PF in the back door and losing their chance of
getting rid of Robert.
But if they got rid of Robert, do you still think
they would see Morgan as
the right man for the job?"
Zimbabwe
needed a transition, Chanetsa said.
"If (Tsvangirai) goes it alone
he would be dealing with a very
unstable structure for the next 10 years
because the dismantling of the
entrenched Zanu-PF structure will take a long
time.
"But we can avoid conflict if we go the route of a government
of
national unity."
Makoni has the support of moderate Zanu-PF
members.
"A lot of people have gone down," Chanetsa said, referring
to many of
the old guard who lost their parliamentary seats, among them
Mugabe
loyalists Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Public and
Interactive
Affairs Minister Chen Chimutengwende.
Chanetsa said
many in the ruling party saw in Makoni a man who could
help them bridge the
divide between the Mugabe era and what followed next.
But it is not
only ruling party members who will look to Makoni for
security.
Retired army major and current Makoni adviser Kudzai Mbudzi said
senior
members of the country's security forces were also considering their
futures
as they encouraged Mugabe to step down, in his own interest and in
theirs.
"The military runs the presidential campaign in this
country, and they
gave feedback to Mugabe that he was not to
run.
"They don't trust Tsvangirai, but they also knew that Mugabe
would be
heavily defeated in a second round. And with Simba backing Morgan
in the
event of a run-off, they knew it was time for a
compromise."
It is understood that in return for reasoning with the
84-year-old
leader to bow out gracefully, the role players want an
understanding that
"the status quo and the present status of Zanu-PF would
not be totally
destroyed. And Simba can give them that
assurance".
Under Zimbabwean law, 21 days must lapse after the
results have been
officially announced before a second round can take place.
Makoni's men
believe that provides an ideal window of opportunity for Mugabe
to step
down. "Stepping down is his only alternative to impending defeat,"
Mudzi's
defeat.
In the event that he does, Chanetsa was
confident that any future
government will allow Mugabe to reside peacefully
in the country he fought
to liberate.
"He is no Charles Taylor.
And there is no point in us looking back. We
want to move
on."
This article was originally published on page 1 of
Pretoria News on
April 03, 2008
Business Report
April 3, 2008
By Peter Apps
London - Having long
written Zimbabwe off as one of the least appealing
investment destinations,
international investors are starting to show
interest as they suspect the
end of President Robert Mugabe's rule is
approaching.
After
iron-fisted farm seizures and slum clearances raised fears over the
safety
of outside holdings, even risk-hungry investors avoided an economy
with 100
586 percent inflation.
But sentiment is starting to shift after Mugabe
failed to win a clear
majority in elections on Saturday, paving the way for
a likely run-off with
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan
Tsvangirai.
"It looks like the endgame is very close," said Renaissance
Capital
strategist Richard Segal. "There is certainly more interest.
Hopefully we'll
have a unity government, with a reasonable stance on
property rights. That
could work out quite well for foreign
investors."
Renaissance, a Russian investment bank aiming to become
Africa's market
leader, says it has been pushing Zimbabwe as a good
opportunity for six
months, with interest rising in the run-up to the
polls.
Renaissance snapped up a stake in CBZ Holdings sold by Absa last
year, while
African Banking Corporation says Citigroup has approved a $25
million (R195
million) purchase of a 20 percent stake.
Segal said the
end of Mugabe's 28-year rule could see a donor conference
bringing in about
$1.5 billion of foreign aid.
And two-thirds of the 3 million Zimbabweans
who had left during the economic
crisis could return over time, he said,
potentially bringing home between $2
billion and $3 billion.
China
invested $1.6 billion in Zimbabwe last year, it says, and analysts say
this
may increase.
Zimbabwean equities already look cheap, according to
analysts, and there is
enthusiasm for stocks such as cellular operator
Econet and retail and hotel
chain Meikles Africa.
African equities
rose 60 percent last year and the continent expects ongoing
growth of 7
percent, but Zimbabwe has long bucked the trend. Its gross
domestic product
(GDP) has contracted each year since 2000, bottoming out at
10.4 percent in
2003. The International Monetary Fund expects GDP to fall
4.5 percent this
year.
Bond brokerage Exotix said it had received new inquiries for
prices of
Zimbabwean traded debt, although as far as it knew none existed.
The nation
had outstanding medium- and short-term debt of $4.3 billion, it
said, 95
percent of it official debt with multilateral lenders.
Given
the scale of the slump, most are cautious. Some say it would take much
more
than Mugabe's exit to tempt them in. The presence of Zanu-PF names in a
unity government could further spook investors.
With Kenya's debacle
fresh in the mind, one Africa fund said it was refusing
to comment on
Zimbabwe, while another major bank said it would not talk for
fears over
staff safety.
"It's not a place we will rush to take a look at," said
Aberdeen Asset
Management emerging equities fund manager Andrew Brown.
"You'd have to see
inflation come under control and the business environment
improve. Political
change might be the catalyst, but we want to stand back.
It's more the sort
of place you would find private equity."
Others
have taken a dip. London-listed Mwana, which has a nickel mining
project in
Zimbabwe, climbed 20 percent in early trade on Tuesday on talk of
an MDC
victory.
"Once [Mugabe] goes, there will be a rush to get in," said one
South African
analyst. "People who are already positioned will make a lot of
money."
UK-based Lonrho last month unveiled plans to raise $140 million
to expand in
Zimbabwe.
With its gold, nickel, platinum, palladium and
ferrochrome reserves,
Zimbabwe could benefit from continued high global
commodity prices, but huge
constraints remain.
Analysts warn that the
electricity system is failing to supply a
manufacturing sector that has
shrunk by 70 percent, ruling out a sudden
spike in production.
Even
with high global food prices, the devastated agricultural sector would
also
be difficult to resuscitate.
"There are questions over property rights,"
said analyst Mike Davies at risk
consultancy Eurasia Group. "People are
going to be cautious given the
history of land grabs. It will take time to
clear that sentiment."
Business Day
03 April 2008
THERE
IS a whiff of miracle about Zimbabwe. It is beginning to seem just
possible
that one of the ugliest regimes in Africa, and one of its most
tyrannical
leaders, could soon be peaceably and democratically removed from
power and
office.
It seems almost unreal that after so long, and after so much
damage ,
President Robert Mugabe may soon no longer be with us. And that
Morgan
Tsvangirai, who we have seen beaten and insulted by Mugabe’s thugs,
will be
the next president of Zimbabwe.
For Zimbabweans it must
all seem like a dream. Poverty-stricken, mostly
hungry and desperate, their
country has turned its back on them. Now, by
having the fortitude to stand
once more in a queue and the courage to make a
mark somewhere other than
under Mugabe’s picture, they just may be getting
their country
back.
When you think of the millions of Zimbabweans who have fled and
who could
not vote, the scale of Mugabe’s and Zanu (PF)’s defeat in the
general
elections last weekend becomes apparent. They were hammered.
Zimbabweans
should be proud of themselves.
It would also be
remiss not to allow President Thabo Mbeki to take a bow at
progress so far.
Mbeki’s handling of the crisis in Zimbabwe divides neatly
into two — the
period before and since 2006, when he was given a mandate by
the Southern
African Development Community to mediate talks between Zanu
(PF) and the
opposition. Mbeki and his administration have been assiduous in
carrying out
their task, and he was able to report to Parliament in his
state of the
nation speech this year : “Over the past year, we carried out
the mandate of
SADC to assist the political leadership of Zimbabwe to find a
lasting
solution to the challenges they face.... In short, the parties
involved in
the dialogue have reached full agreement on all matters relating
to the
substantive matters the parties had to address.”
It is highly unlikely
now that, having herded Mugabe and the rest of the
Zimbabwean body politic
into a corner, SA would accept anything other than
compliance with the
election result.
In the parliamentary election the result was official
yesterday afternoon —
Zanu (PF) has lost, according to the Zimbabwean
Electoral Commission, its
majority in parliament. That is surely cause for
celebration by any
democrat. And it is clearly only a matter of time before
it is officially
confirmed that Mugabe has also failed to be re-elected
president. What a
time!
In the immediate aftermath, it is to be
hoped that Zimbabweans can keep
their thus-far commendable cool. The world
must ready itself for a rapid and
massive injection of food aid to Zimbabwe.
Winter is approaching and as much
seed as possible needs to be planted ahead
of next summer.
There will be time for grand reconstruction plans and
monetary reform. For
now, having stood up for democracy, Zimbabweans need to
be spoiled and
fussed over by the rest of the world.
www.theherald.co.za
Dieketseng Maleke HERALD
REPORTER
ECONOMIC growth, democracy, freedom and a new leadership are
some of the
things some Zimbabweans living in the Eastern Cape would like to
see in
their country before they would consider moving back
there.
Harare-born Winnie Tafirenyika said she planned to go back home as
soon as
everything stabilised in Zimbabwe.
“That country is my home
and I hope it will be under a new leadership which
will help people get jobs
and have a stable future.”
She hoped for huge corporate investment and
for other Zimbabweans working in
other countries to return.
Jack
White, who lived in Zimbabwe for 40 years, said: “I would like to see
Zimbabwe back as the bread basket of Africa, as it was the second-biggest
maizeexporting country after South Africa.”
White said he missed the
lifestyle of Zimbabwe, which was “laid-back”.
The country is smaller than
South Africa, so it was easier to get to know
people.
“For the
country to develop and have a bright future, it must be under a new
government. Zimbabwe needs skills development, economic rebirth and all of
this will take a few years to be done,” White said.
Former Zimbabwean
farmer Harley Knott, who lives in St Francis Bay, said he
had lost
everything in 2006 and decided to move to SA.
“I would like to return if
there is going to be democracy and everything is
not controlled by the
government.”
He was positive about the future in Zimbabwe, under
different leadership.
Peter Hoffman was born in Kadoma, Zimbabwe, and also
moved to St Francis Bay
after his farm was taken from him by the Mugabe
government. He said he
missed Zimbabwe and would move back if there was
change.
“I would like to see absolute democracy in that country as it has
the best
resources, especially in agriculture, and the people there are
lovely,
friendly and hard workers.
“The challenge I had to meet when
moving to South Africa was to start from
nothing after my farm was taken
away from me by force.”
“I have accepted this country as my home and I
will be forever grateful
because it took us in, but Zimbabwe is
home.”
Emma White said the country‘s future would depend on the outcome
of these
elections. She said she would go back to Zimbabwe if given the
chance and
when things improved in that country.
“Even though I was
born in England, Zimbabwe is my home because I grew up
there. It is a
special country.
“I miss Zimbabwe and the economy, the healthcare. The
people should receive
help. They need food.”
Robin Masocha said he
would only go back home when there was stability.
“Zimbabwe used to be
the bread basket, but now it is the worst economic
basket case in Africa.”
he said. He believed that if the MDC came into power
things would improve
“but that won‘t take one night”.
Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said:
“If the MDC is victorious, a window
of opportunity will be opened for the
reconstruction of Zimbabwe. One hopes
the world will come out in
support.”
The first task in Zimbabwe‘s transition would be to attract
people who had
left the country, and some e would return if there was a new
government.
“Some will come back to Zimbabwe immediately after a new
government has been
appointed and some will go back a bit later,” Matshiqi
said.
Thursday, April
03, 2008
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
With the results of Zimbabwe's elections
up in the air, the world can only
hope that its people will remain calm
while the situation works itself out.
The nation of 12 million people
held presidential and parliamentary
elections Saturday against a backdrop of
economic disintegration. This
situation is the result of 28 years of what
became dictatorial rule by
Robert G. Mugabe, the country's 84-year-old
president. The tottery leader
was seeking another term in
office.
What had been a flourishing African economy with mineral wealth,
profitable
agriculture and light industry has descended under Mr. Mugabe's
cold hand
into inflation that has made its currency valueless, unemployment
inestimably high and millions of people requiring external food aid to avoid
starvation.
Mr. Mugabe had two opponents: Morgan Tsvangirai, a
veteran opposition
leader, and Simba Makoni, the nation's former finance
minister. The
electoral commission said the opposition party won control of
parliament,
but it reported no results on the presidency. Mr. Tsvangirai
claimed
yesterday that he had won 50.3 percent. The nation's state-run
newspaper,
meanwhile, said no candidate had gotten 50 percent and that a
runoff vote
was expected.
Zimbabwe's security forces, with a
reputation for a heavy hand that can
become brutal with no prompting, remain
on high alert. Several possible
outcomes seem likely: 1) Mr. Mugabe retires,
or "shares power" from a
symbolic position with Mr. Tsvangirai; 2) a runoff
election is held between
Mr. Mugabe and Mr. Tsvangirai (and the incumbent
tries again to cook that
one); 3) Mr. Mugabe, backed by the security forces,
announces that he won,
whatever the actual results were, and the people of
Zimbabwe are sentenced
to more of the same awful conditions.
The
problem with the third possibility is that Zimbabwe's people might truly
blow up, as the Kenyans did when they thought President Mwai Kibaki had
stolen their elections.
The best outcome would have Mr. Mugabe leave
the stage completely. Even
then, Zimbabwe would need a long recovery period
to get back to where it was
even a few years ago. The world would be asked
to help, and it should. In
the short term, Zimbabweans should remain calm,
and not wreck the country
any more than Mr. Mugabe already
has.
Patience is hard to maintain, but it's still the best course at this
point.
First published on April 3, 2008 at 12:00 am
Washington Times
By David R.
Sands
April 3, 2008
In September 1983, President Reagan hosted
Zimbabwean Prime Minister Robert
Mugabe at the White House, praising the
three-year-old southern African
country as a bulwark against Soviet
influence and praising his guest for his
"wise leadership in healing the
wounds of civil war."
A quarter-century later, the 84-year-old Mr.
Mugabe, now the country's
president, is fighting for his political life.
Once one of the richest
countries on the continent, Zimbabwe today suffers
from a shattered economy,
plunging health and social indicators, bitter
internal divisions and
international sanctions that have left its leader and
his regime a pariah in
the United States and the West.
In
post-colonial Africa, dominated by a string of political "big men,"
perhaps
no one rose so high or fell so far as Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the
Jesuit-educated carpenter's son who has dominated political life since the
end of white rule in the country once known as Southern
Rhodesia.
The high hopes of the Reagan administration have given
way to bitter
denunciations in the George W. Bush
administration.
"The Mugabe regime is a disgrace to the people of
Zimbabwe and a disgrace to
southern Africa and to the continent of Africa as
a whole," Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice told reporters last week
during a Middle East tour.
And with opposition parties claiming
they have won the March 29 presidential
and parliamentary elections, Mr.
Mugabe and his ruling Zimbabwe African
National Union-Patriotic Front
(ZANU-PF) party now stand accused of not even
being able to rig an election
competently.
"ZANU-PF's core of power is so weak now that once
they start down the path
of reforms, they will not be able to control the
process," said David
Coltart, a top figure in the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change
(MDC), on a recent Washington visit.
It was
all very different when Mr. Mugabe first came to the world's notice.
A
schoolteacher by profession, Mr. Mugabe earned a law degree while serving
a
10-year prison sentence for opposing the white-dominated Rhodesian regime.
While in prison, his 4-year-old son died of malaria, but government
officials refused the prisoner permission to attend the
funeral.
Released from prison, he fled to neighboring
Mozambique, becoming a key
figure in the militant guerrilla movement that
eventually forced the
capitulation of the minority government of Rhodesian
Prime Minister Ian
Smith. The struggle for majority rule claimed an
estimated 30,000 lives.
Becoming prime minister of the newly
christened Zimbabwe in 1980, Mr. Mugabe
at first preached a message of
reconciliation and racial harmony. Citing the
country's productive economy
and thriving agricultural sector, Mr. Mugabe
said he had "inherited the
jewel of Africa."
In a direct appeal to the fearful white
minority, he said in January 1980,
"Stay with us, please remain in this
country and constitute a nation based
on unity."
The
country enjoyed broad international support under Mr. Mugabe and was
seen as
a sharp contrast to the apartheid regime in neighboring South
Africa. During
his first decade in power, the economy grew steadily,
infant-mortality rates
were cut nearly in half, and average life expectancy
increased from 56 years
to 64 years.
Productive white landowners, key to the economy,
were allowed to keep their
often-sizable holdings. "There is a place for you
in the sun," Mr. Mugabe
told them.
After a change in the
constitution, Mr. Mugabe was easily elected president
of Zimbabwe in
1987.
But there were also early signs that Zimbabwe's leader
did not willingly
share power.
In 1982, Mr. Mugabe had a
falling out with fellow rebel leader Joshua Nkomo,
whose rival Zimbabwe
African People's Union (ZAPU) had a political base in
the country's
Ndebele-speaking south. Mr. Mugabe, from the ethnic-Shona
north, ordered the
country's North Korea-trained army into the southern
provinces, in an
operation that killed an estimated 25,000 people, including
large number of
civilians.
Memories in Matabeleland and other Ndebele
strongholds of the attacks have
not faded, and many believe Mr. Mugabe has
clung to power for so long for
fear he will face human rights charges
springing from the three-year
campaign should he leave
office.
Relations between an increasingly authoritarian Mr.
Mugabe and the West
deteriorated in the 1990s, underscored by the decision
of the new Labor
government of Prime Minister Tony Blair in 1997 to stop
funding land-reform
programs allowing lower-income blacks to purchase
acreage from large
landowners, most of them
white.
Britain complained that many of the buyers of the land
were relatives and
cronies of Mr. Mugabe, a pattern of insider dealing that
critics say has
only accelerated in recent years.
The
dispute also intensified Mr. Mugabe's public complaints about the West,
especially Britain, the former colonial power. The president has blamed much
of the country's recent economic problems on U.S. and European
sanctions.
"Blair, keep your England, and let me keep my
Zimbabwe," Mr. Mugabe told a
U.N. summit in Johannesburg in
2002.
South African author Heidi Holland, who is completing a
biography of Mr.
Mugabe, said the president appeared to her in a lengthy
recent interview to
be a resentful, insecure man, one who never got over the
perceived British
slight.
"He realized Britain had cast
him adrift. His problem with Britain was on
the scale of a big, family
quarrel," she said in an interview with the
German DPA news
agency.
Life in Zimbabwe deteriorated sharply after Mr.
Mugabe unexpectedly lost a
2000 constitutional referendum designed to
increase his hold on power. The
regime's campaign against domestic
opposition, including top MDC leaders,
intensified, while forced land
seizures and economic mismanagement drove the
country to the edge of
collapse.
The economy has imploded, shrinking by 5.1 percent
in 2006. Unemployment is
estimated at around 80 percent, and the
international financial agencies say
Zimbabwe has the world's highest
inflation rate at 100,000 percent. After
rising throughout the 1980s,
average life expectancy has plummeted to 37
years for men and 34 for women,
owing in part to a raging HIV/AIDS epidemic.
The country once
known as southern Africa's breadbasket now is dependent on
foreign food aid.
Neighboring South Africa and Botswana have had to deal
with a flood of
Zimbabwean refugees fleeing political repression and
economic hardship back
home.
Even Mr. Mugabe's iron grip on the country's security
forces and ruling
ZANU-PF party have been sorely tested in recent days. A
ZANU-PF dissident
broke with the president to run in Saturday's presidential
election.
Mr. Mugabe, who compared himself to a boxer in the
most recent campaign, has
shown repeatedly in the past his ability to face
down challenges to his
power.
But as the votes slowly
trickle in and the opposition makes repeated claims
of victory, the
president has been uncharacteristically quiet.
ROBERT GABRIEL
MUGABE
President of Zimbabwe
Born: Feb.
21, 1924, Kutama, Zvimba District,
Rhodesia/Zimbabwe
Education: Bachelor's degree, University of
Fort Hare, South Africa;
bachelor's degree, University of London; multiple
degrees, University of
South Africa
Family: Wives Sally
Hayfron (died 1992), and Grace Marufu; three children,
Bona, Robert Jr. and
Bellarmine
Career highlights: Schoolteacher, Rhodesia and
Ghana, 1955-60; joins
opposition to Rhodesia's white government and helps
form the Zimbabwe
African National Union (ZANU), 1960-63; sentenced to 10
years in jail for
"subversive speech," earning a law degree while in prison,
1964-74; elected
head of ZANU, 1974; elected prime minister in "independence
elections" after
the end of white rule, 1980; launches military campaign
against opposition
parties in Zimbabwe's Ndebele-speaking south, 1982-85;
elected president
after a power-sharing deal creates the ZANU-Patriotic
Front, or ZANU-PF,
1987, re-elected in 1990, 1996 and 2002; voters reject a
constitutional
referendum to give the government more power, 2000;
government accelerates
seizures of white-owned farms, causing widespread
economic hardship, 2001;
ZANU-PF wins parliamentary elections amid growing
international condemnation
and sanctions, 2005; runs for fifth term as
president, 2008.
SOURCES: Government of Zimbabwe; British
Broadcasting Corp.; U.S. State
Department; Associated Press
AfricanLiberty.org , AfricanLiberty.org
Published
04/03/2008 - 2:40 a.m. GMT
ABOUT THE
AUTHOR
AfricanLiberty.org
Website:
http://africanliberty.o...
Email:
franklin@imanighana.org
Dollarisation
may be a strange term for continental Africans who have never
experienced
hyperinflation of One Hundred Thousand Percentage Points, but to
members of
the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce [ZNCC], the word evokes
familiar
echoes of despair. In this landlocked Southern African country that
shares
borders with South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia and Botswana, the
American
Dollar, known popularly as The USA, is competing for legal and
illegal
circulation in daily transactions. ZNCC members, bankers,
industrialists,
academics, economists and interested citizens disagree on
the acceptability
of 'dollarisation' in an economy that has contracted by
almost Seventy
Percent since year 2000.
Dr DanielSteve Hanke, former economic adviser to
Ronald Reagan and now
professor of applied economics at the prestigious
Johns Hopkins University,
recently published a report in which he accuses
Reserve Bank [RBZ] governor
Dr Gideon Gono of steering Zimbabwe in a course
of fiscal and monetary doom,
calling for the bank's dissolution. This
hypothesis seems to dovetail with
Friedrich Hayek's that an institution that
causes a problem – by introducing
commandist-type anti market controls –
cannot proffer any sustainable
solutions since it is itself an integral part
of the problem. Gideon Gono,
by admitting that he has authorised his
Fidelity Printers to churn out in
excess of Three Hundred Trillion Zimbabwe
dollars, seems to fulfil Hanke's
prophecy of self-destruction.
ZNCC
members are therefore justified to feel confused by Dr Gono's
insistence on
managed exchange controls that on one hand stifle the
industry's ability to
create foreign currency reserves, while on the other
they authorise ZIMRA –
Zimbabwe Revenue Authority -, fuel stations, hotels,
Air Zimbabwe and the
Passport Office to charge for their services in USAs.
Infact, it is
impossible to conceive how thousands of 'poor' Zimbabwean
citizens cross the
borders everyday to buy groceries, furniture, electronic
goods and cars in
foreign currency when RBZ fails to supply Letters of
Credit to local
business for importation of critical raw materials. In the
midst of this
policy confusion, both Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority
[ZESA] and
Grain Marketing Board [GMB] are struggling to pay for power and
grain
imports respectively due to a shortage of 'official' foreign currency
while
the USA has common presence in the streets of Harare and
Bulawayo.
University of Zimbabwe lecturer Dr Innocent Matshe argues that
Dollarisation
is a global phenomenon that touches on sensitive political
nerves of
sovereignty. Even if Dr Gono wanted to, he would not convince a
government
that is already hostile to Americans to accept 'their money' as
official
tender, as the country would lose more that it would gain. Like
Hanke, Dr
Matshe asserts that it is stabilising the local currency that is
more urgent
than legalising the USA. Ironically, he observes that the
economy already
sits on foreign bonds and assets, so Dollarisation is not
that strange after
all. Economic Analyst Dr Daniel Ndlela also concurs that
Dollarising is a
short-term solution with few benefits. Although he seems to
agree that
hyperinflation is a manifestation of failed state policies,
eliminating the
RBZ is not recommendable, because both Mozambique and Zambia
managed to
regain monetary sanity through their respective central banks.
Rather, he
proposes a reconstitution of RBZ- as in East European cases where
Currency
Boards were used in conjunction with 'unofficial' use of foreign
currencies.
It is not possible, he adds, for Zimbabwe to 'officialise' local
use of USAs
and Rands without seeking authority from the American and South
African
monetary authorities.
MaraMarah Hativagone, current president
of ZNCC, reflects the typical state
of self-resignation and despair that
correctly portrays ZNCC members as
victims of an all too powerful,
domineering bully policy control
environment. Her argument exposes
fundamental a weakness of command and
control economies – they ignore the
ingenuity of citizens to respond to the
natural dictates of demand and
supply. Mrs Hativagone questions the wisdom
of banning Bureau de Changes
while frog marching unwilling citizens to sell
the USA to a central bank
that offers a rate One Thousand times below what
the 'real market' offers.
"The government expects us to pay for duty, buy
petrol and pay for passports
in foreign currency," she questions, "where do
they think we are getting
that money from?" Her members have another
problem: the National Income
Pricing Commission [NIPC], a fundamentalist
state institution run by
dogmatic bureaucrats who impose price controls on
consumer goods and
services yet completely ignore the supply cycle.
Public Relations
consultant James Maridadi observes that Dollarisation is
more of a political
problem that calls for a political solution rather than
monetary policy
engineering. If part of this 'political solution' is
dissolving NIPC and the
current regime of fiscal and monetary authorities,
global banking icon Nigel
Chanakira argues for a case of engagement rather
than confrontation. "Our
role as business is to impose our influence on
politicians," he says. Mr
Chanakira' s father is a former diplomat, and with
Nigel's investment stakes
high – currently on the verge of placing his
stocks on the New York Stock
exchange – one can understand why he maintains
a politically correct
perspective on banking issues, particularly the RBZ.
His colleagues - Dr
Mthuli Ncube, James Mushore and Nicholas Vingirayi are
fugitives from
justice for hitherto unspecified banking malpractices known
only to RBZ
strongman Gideon Gono who generally resents criticism. Political
opposition
parties also accuse him of starving business of 'cheap' foreign
currency to
import critical raw materials while favouring to spend millions
importing
agricultural equipment, computers and generators for president
Robert
Mugabe's electoral campaign. Nevertheless, Nigel Chanakira insists
that it
is the role of business to call politicians to account.
NigelTherefore
what is it that Zimbabwe Business proposes as the way
forward? Liberal
economist Professor Friedrich Hayek cautions in 'The Road
to Serfdom': "The
fundamental principle that in the ordering of our affairs
we should make as
much use as possible of the spontaneous forces of society,
and resort as
little as possible to coercion – is capable of an infinite
variety of
applications." For ZNCC members, Dollarisation is not just a
symptom of 'the
spontaneous forces of society', but an inert, yet
unexpressed acceptance to
be viewed as a manifestation and a backlash of the
rise and rise of
market-defying totalitarian control of exchange policies by
Dr Gono's RBZ.
Until Zimbabwe reverts back to the pre-2000 era where
legislators and
business were natural protagonists of the free market
economy, Dr Gono will
continue to buckle under the negative principalities
of commandist policies
motivated by sinister political motives responsible
for creating a deficit
in the foreign exchange market. What choice does
Zimbabwe business have
other than not just exposing the failure of monetary
authorities but also
demanding a return to free market justice? Muffled
cries camouflaged in
retarded egotistical complacency, diplomatic talk and
political correctness
will never restore, as Dr Matshe advises, the 'value
of local currency that
must act as the basis for monetary confidence'.
Progressive modern-day
entrepreneurs like financial whiz kid Nigel
Chanakira, food preservatives
genius Marah Hativagone, telecom engineman
Strive Masiyiwa, refrigeration
icon Callisto Jokonya, platinum king Jack
Murehwa and beverage mogul Johnson
Manyakara have reason to fear for their
corporate lives. In having to deal
with Reserve Bank governor Dr Gideon
Gono, their corporate fate lies in the
fidgety hands of a man who at this
stage wields more authority than the four
ministries of defence, finance,
economic planning and home affairs combined.
Nevertheless, intellectuals,
academics and we analysts owe it upon the
future of our country to expose
the evil of a totalitarian policy
environment for what it is and the first
step in this noble call to duty is
to demand the restoration of RBZ's core
business as a regulatory, rather
than a commandist authority. End.
ABC Australia
3 April, 2008
China has invested heavily in its resource-rich African ally,
Zimbabwe. It
is Zimbabwe's most important trading partner and has been the
biggest
beneficiary of President Robert Mugabe's anti-western 'look east'
policy.
But last year, reports emerged that Beijing was having second
thoughts about
Mr Mugabe and was abandoning Zimbabwe except humanitarian
aid.
Presenter:Sen Lam
Speaker: Dr David Dorwood, former head of
the Africa Studies Institute at La
Trobe University in
Melbourne.
LAM: David Dorwood China's relations with President Mugave
hark back to the
1970s war of independence. What do you make of reports that
Beijing has cut
Mr Mugabe adrift?
DORWOOD: Well I think that's
probably overstating it. What Mugabe was hoping
for was continuing flow of
untied aid to Zimbabwe to prop up his government,
and that the Chinese have
not given carte blanche on. Zimbabwe was in
arrears to the IMF and had, has
all kinds of financial problems and it was
hoping for a Chinese bail-out. On
the other hand the Chinese are still very
active in the resource market in
Zimbabwe.
LAM: Nevertheless though are there indications that perhaps
Zimbabwe may be
more trouble than its worth for the Chinese?
DORWOOD:
Oh yes, I mean I think the Chinese aren't so much pulling out as
taking a
lower profile in the expectation that it's only really a matter of
time
before Robert Mugabe goes and they want to secure their resources with
new
administration and therefore are sort of taking less of an active role
in
propping up the ZANU-PF and Robert Mugabe.
LAM: And Dr Dorwood with an
economy as dysfunctional as Zimbabwe's doesn't
it become increasingly
difficult to do any meaningful business with
Zimbabwe. So what does this
give the Chinese?
DORWOOD: Well you see Zimbabwe is a major producer of
things like platinum
and platinum is a catalyst in the refracting of oil.
China has an energy
problem, it wants to you know process its own oil
therefore it has to have a
secure source for platinum. China has strategic
investments in Zimbabwe,
those are going to persist irrespective of the
government.
LAM: Well the question which arises now of course is that if
there were to
be a change of government in Zimbabwe and Morgan Tsvangarai
does replace
Robert Mugabe what are the implications for Beijing because
already they've
been reports of anti-Chinese sentiments among ordinary
Zimbabweans?
DORWOOD: The anti-Chinese sentiments are found throughout
sort of a lot of
that part of central Africa because China has encouraged
small businessmen
to go in and they're often seen as being exploitative, as
being less than
honest, there's been anti-Chinese feelings in Zambia, Malawi
as well as
Zimbabwe. Yes, that's a bit different, I think small shopkeepers
and Chinese
small businessmen in that part of Africa may find it's time to
reconsider
you know locating somewhere else. But in terms of the big mining
interest,
that's a different scale altogether and the new administration if
it comes
in under Morgan Tsvangarai is still going to have to deal with the
Chinese.
And it's desperate for investment and employment and therefore it's
not
going to sort of rock the boat too much.
LAM: So really for
pragmatic reasons the new government if it is a new
government of Morgan
Tsvangarai it won't try to punish China for being close
to the Mugabe
regime?
DORWOOD: No it'll make pragmatic decisions I expect. As I say
that isn't
going to protect sort of Chinese shopkeepers from irate mobs
necessarily.
LAM: But might there be greater involvement from Beijing if
there were to be
a new government because the new government might offer
better
administration for the future?
DORWOOD: Yes and I think the
other thing about it is that Zimbabwe has
become really quite dysfunctional.
The Chinese need to have reliable
infrastructure as well as you know a
steady sort of basically more honest
government to deal with.