From SAPA (SA), 10 December

SADC ministers meet on Harare crisis

Harare - Ministers of five Southern African nations began a meeting in Harare on Monday in a bid to resolve the country's political crisis. Lilian Patel, the Malawian foreign minister and chairman of the Southern African Development Community's task force on Zimbabwe opened the conference, saying members of the 13-nation economic bloc were "greatly concerned by what is going on in this country". There was also a tacit admission by Zimbabwean foreign minister Stan Mudenge that his government was for the first time facing strong criticism from African states demanding Mugabe end political violence and ensure presidential elections due by April are free and fair.

In a lengthy speech at the opening of the two-day meeting, Mudenge repeated the government's charge that the British government was "managing and manipulating" international action against Zimbabwe. "We are aware of strategic decisions in Brussels to try and conscript other players to turn the entire African continent against us, and the sinister effort to turn our SADC friends against us," he said. He said he believed SADC was in support of Zimbabwe's case, but, he added, "even if not," the government would win. "We would face anybody, because might is right," he vowed. His remarks referred to criticism in the last two weeks from South Africa, including President Thabo Mbeki who appealed to the international community to "act urgently" to ensure free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. Mbeki said the situation in Zimbabwe was "deteriorating" and warned of an outbreak of civil war if people were denied the right to vote freely.

The SADC meeting follows the passing in the US Congress last week of the "Zimbabwe Democracy bill" which imposes sanctions targeted specifically against Mugabe and other officials responsible for "the deliberate breakdown of the rule of law." The European Union has also started diplomatic mechanisms that will allow it also to impose sanctions against Zimbabwe. Patel said the meeting was part of a series of diplomatic initiatives to end the crisis in Zimbabwe, but she clearly separated SADC from the stronger Western form of sanctions. "We in SADC would like to make it clear that we do not support sanctions," she said. "Sanctions would cause untold suffering to scores of Zimbabweans, as well as to other people in our region." US officials have pointed out that the Zimbabwe Democracy bill, yet to be signed into law by President George Bush, will stop Mugabe and senior aides and their families from travelling to America, and freeze their bank accounts there.

Last week South African officials confirmed that Mbeki was "losing patience" with Mugabe and said he should not any longer expect protection from South Africa. The SADC meeting in Harare was a follow up to a two-day regional summit here in September where the presidents of five nations listened to representatives of several bodies linked to Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF party, as well as to civic rights bodies and farm union officials. It ended with what diplomats said was an ambiguous conclusion that softened the pressure on the government. However, they say that following Mbeki's strong remarks, Harare is likely to be delivered with much firmer demands for compliance with international calls for the restoration of the rule of law. The SADC task force is one of a series of international diplomatic initiatives that have brought Mugabe's regime into widening isolation over state-driven lawlessness that began in February last year with violent invasions of white-owned farms by Mugabe's militias of war veterans, and a campaign of repression that has continued since then.

From The Mail & Guardian (SA), 10 December

Mugabe to "tough it out"

Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe is likely to "tough it out" and appeal to black South Africans over President Thabo Mbeki’s head, in response to the South African government’s ditching of its "quiet diplomacy" policy

Further intensifying the country’s isolation, the United States Congress adopted the Zimbabwe Democracy Act by an overwhelming majority. Diplomats said Mugabe was most likely to respond to the pressures by projecting himself to black South Africans as "a Pan Africanist hero" and "toughing it out, at least until he has won a further six-year term". He has already tried to strike a posture as Africa's revolutionary crusader against globalisation and the relics of white imperialism, setting an example to the region - particularly South Africa – on how to conduct land reform. Diplomats said another possibility - although remote - was that Mugabe would make cosmetic changes to appease Mbeki. A small group of wealthy white farmers who have backed Mugabe to win forthcoming elections may be brought on board, with at least one being offered a Cabinet seat. A minister able to speak a South African language, such as Ndebele-speaking Zanu PF party chairperson John Nkomo, currently Minister of Home Affairs, may be charged with improving Harare-Pretoria relations. In the past week Mugabe has ditched the centuries-old rule book of diplomatic practice by permitting his hard-line Minister of Information, Jonathan Moyo, to pillory targeted Western diplomats in the state-controlled media, in addition to launching a war of words on Pretoria. Danish ambassador Ole Moesby and British High Commissioner Brian Donnelly were vilified.

The day Mbeki let it be known he had finally lost patience - Mugabe's worst external setback in years - the new Supreme Court bench under former minister Godfrey Chidyausiku handed the Zimbabwean president a predicted internal triumph in the form of 4-1 endorsement of the "fast track land reform programme". The last hopes that internal pressure could bring change were destroyed on Monday by the newly reconstituted Supreme Court. Envoys and jurists said only external pressure could ensure anything resembling clean presidential elections next year. Chief Justice Chidyausiku cleared the government of all wrongdoing despite the murder of 39 farmworkers and nine farmers in two years of what Mugabe calls the "Third Chimurenga" or civil war. It was unreasonable to expect the government to "bring about a totally crime free environment", said Chidyausiku. He added that land reform "is a matter of social justice, not strictly speaking a legal issue". Three newly appointed Mugabe sympathisers backed Chidyausiku's finding, which now clears the way for summary redistribution of 5 000 white-owned farms to 300 000 Zanu PF supporters. Human rights lawyer Adrian de Bourbon said the ruling marked "the end of the road" for farmers’ attempts to fight through the courts. Anyone attempting to defend human rights from now on "runs a very severe risk of not getting a fair adjudication", he warned.

However, Zimbabwe's legal community were ringing in their praise for the personal courage and moral integrity of Appeal Judge Admed Ibrahim (61), who issued a dissenting judgement. Ibrahim rejected demands that he resign earlier this year, despite warnings by Minister of Justice Patrick Chinamasa that "anything could happen" following death threats from Mugabe's war veterans. In his minority ruling, likely to be reprinted in legal journals around the world, Ibrahim accused the government of coming back to Judge Chidyausiku with the same arguments that had been rejected by the previous Supreme Court bench under Judge Anthony Gubbay. He said that on the evidence put before the Supreme Court by the Commercial Farmers’ Union it was impossible to say law and order had been restored. "Haphazard squatting cannot form part of a lawful programme of land reform," he said. "It is not the function of the courts to support the government of the day. The courts' duty is to the law and the law alone. They may never subvert the law. To do otherwise would create huge uncertainty in the law."

De Bourbon's warning that internal means of legal redress were running out was echoed by Professor Tony Hawkins of the University of Zimbabwe’s business school. He believes there is little hope the local business community will exert internal pressure for reform, despite the worsening economic crisis. However, Zimbabwe remained vulnerable to South African pressure on transport, fuel and electricity, said Hawkins. "The economic pressures will continue to intensify in the months ahead, but this government is going nowhere until the elections. If Mugabe wins he will have to try and do something - I don't know what - to reverse some of the things he is doing now. Undermining the dynamo of the economy - agriculture - will not fully hit us until next year or the year after. "We haven't felt the full effect of financing the budget deficit by the tax on savers, and the exchange rate policy." Institutional investors are currently receiving a maximum of 30% returns in the face of nearly 100% inflation, which Hawkins describes as "a concealed tax". "There will also be a substantial outflow of skills post election," said Hawkins. Despite the country’s economic decline, political entropy and increasing international isolation, no challenge is expected to Mugabe’s leadership at next week’s Zanu-PF congress in Victoria Falls. An orgy of anti-Western and anti-South African rhetoric is expected when close on 14 000 delegates turn up in the resort town