• JAG Legal Communique Dated 03 December 2003
• JAG Open Letters Forum No. 198
• Rights Groups Fear Zimbabwe Political Violence Increasing
• IMF Initiates Compulsory Withdrawal Procedures for Zimbabwe
• Analysts condemn Mugabe's speech
• Cold comfort for Mugabe's 'zombies'
• Commonwealth snub of Mugabe a good start on regime change
• Canada Floats Commonwealth Compromise on Zimbabwe
• Zanu-PF summit to look at economy
• African elephant numbers puzzle
• MDC on diplomatic mission in Abuja
• Zim youths leave Botswana to stage resistance

Statistics released by human rights monitors this week show that, while
random violence in Zimbabwe is down, arrests and torture of political
opponents has increased dramatically.
According to medical officials and human rights workers, 14 people needed
hospital treatment during the weekend parliamentary bi-election to fill a
vacant seat in the town of Kadoma, a two-hour drive southwest of Harare.

The victims told human rights monitors they had been tortured by an
organized group of ruling Zanu-PF supporters. The ruling party ended up
winning the off-year election by a wide margin, taking the seat away from
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

Human rights workers compiling statistics from hospital records and
complaints say the pattern of violence has changed since the presidential
elections in March of 2002.

The Human Rights Forum reported that, compared with the same period last
year, the number of random torture cases dropped by half to 500 through
November.

But, a leading human rights activist, who asked not to be named, said
Wednesday torture of targeted victims for political reasons has increased
dramatically.

"These days victims are usually political leaders within their communities,"
he said. Most of them have been tortured frequently." He told VOA that last
year before the presidential election, torture was often random. Now, he
said, the authorities appear to have lists of people who they will arrest in
specifically targeted areas.

IMF Initiates Compulsory Withdrawal Procedures for Zimbabwe

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today reviewed
Zimbabwe's overdue financial obligations to the Fund and decided to initiate
the procedure on the compulsory withdrawal of Zimbabwe from the IMF, after
having determined that Zimbabwe had not actively cooperated with the IMF.
The IMF regrets that the authorities have not adopted comprehensive and
consistent policies needed to address Zimbabwe's serious economic problems.
Economic and social conditions in Zimbabwe have continued to deteriorate
during 2003. GDP has declined by about 40 percent during 1999-2003, and
inflation rose to 526 percent in October 2003, fueled by monetary expansion
and a depreciating parallel market exchange rate. Poverty and unemployment
rates have continued to rise, Zimbabweans suffer from one of the highest
HIV/AIDS infection rates in the world, and the population faces shortages of
basic products, including fuel and medicines. The adverse effects of the
land reform and a drought left two-thirds of the population in need of food
aid in 2002/03, and no significant improvement is expected in the remainder
of 2003/04. The World Food Program has appealed for food aid for Zimbabwe,
but pledges up to this point meet less than half of the estimated
requirements through April 2004.
Executive Directors urged the authorities to strengthen cooperation with the
Fund and to adopt a comprehensive adjustment program that would arrest and
reverse Zimbabwe's continuing economic decline. The IMF staff stands ready
to continue assisting the authorities in this endeavor. The Executive Board
will review Zimbabwe's overdue financial obligations to the IMF again within
six months or at the time of the Executive's Board consideration of the 2004
Article IV consultation with Zimbabwe, whichever is earlier.
Background
Zimbabwe has been in continuous arrears to the IMF since February 2001. As
of end-November 2003, Zimbabwe's arrears to the IMF amounted to SDR 187.0
million (US$273 million), or about 53 percent of its quota in the IMF. Of
the total amount of arrears, SDR 75.6 million (US$110 million) was overdue
to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Trust. Zimbabwe is the
first and only country to have protracted overdue obligations to the PRGF
Trust. Zimbabwe has made only minor payments to the IMF since June 2003, at
the time of the Executive Board's last review, and as a result, its arrears
have increased further.
The initiation of the procedure on the compulsory withdrawal from the IMF is
one in a series of escalating measures that the IMF applies to members that
fail to meet their obligations under its Articles of Agreement. On September
24, 2001, Zimbabwe was declared ineligible to use the IMF's general
resources and was removed from the list of countries eligible to use
resources under the PRGF (see Press Release No. 01/40). On June 13, 2002,
the Executive Board adopted a declaration of non-cooperation with respect to
Zimbabwe and suspended technical assistance to the country (see Press
Release No. 02/28). On June 6, 2003, the Executive Board suspended the
voting and related rights of Zimbabwe in the IMF (see Press Release No.
03/80). While today's decision has no immediate effect on Zimbabwe's
standing in the IMF, it starts a process which could ultimately result in
the compulsory withdrawal of the country from the IMF. During this process,
Zimbabwe will have ample opportunity to improve its cooperation with the IMF
with the aim of addressing the economic decline in the country and resolving
its overdue financial obligations.

Cold comfort for Mugabe's 'zombies'

      Harare

      04 December 2003 08:39

Right up to the last moment, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe appeared to
be keeping up his hopes that he might be invited to the Commonwealth Heads
of Government Meeting in Abuja, Nigeria this weekend.

That the Commonwealth summit would coincide with the annual conference of
his ruling Zanu-PF party did not bother Mugabe two weeks ago.

"We look forward to participating at Abuja," he said brightly, a week
before.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo announced last week that the Zimbabwean
leader would not be invited, after finding no evidence that Mugabe had
carried out any reforms to meet the Commonwealth's principles of democracy
and governance.

The Zanu-PF annual conference, a three-day meeting of 3 000 rank-and-file
supporters, was always opened by Mugabe on the Friday of the weekend on
which it was held. This year, however, party officials had hinted he might
speak instead on Thursday -– an arrangement which would allow him to deliver
his speech and head off to Abuja, in case Obasanjo relented at the last
moment.

Reports from travel agents that domestic flights from Harare on Thursday and
Friday had been reduced without explanation added fuel to speculation. One
of Air Zimbabwe's few remaining aircraft was on standby for Nigeria, they
suggested.

However, no official comment was available on what might well be a couple of
coincidences.

Nor was there any hint from Abuja that Mugabe would be diverted from
rallying the party faithful at the conference in the southern town of
Masvingo.

A year since the last party conference, inflation had surged to 526%, gross
domestic product was estimated to have shrunk nearly 20%, over five-million
Zimbabweans were in the grip of a second year of famine and Zimbabwe had
become number 112 in a list of 133 of the world's most corrupt nations.

Only two weeks ago, similar conditions saw thousands of Georgians take to
the streets of Tbilisi and drive out long-standing president Eduard
Shevardnadze. Professor Eliphas Mukonoweshuro of the University of
Zimbabwe's politics department said: "It's a long shot to expect any kind of
autonomous revolt. They're like a pack of zombies. Everything that the
'great leader' says will be cheered by all the delegates."

In the 23 years since he came to power in 1980, he said, Mugabe has got rid
all of the old generation of black nationalist politicians who were his
peers in the resistance against white minority Rhodesian rule, when the
party had a tradition of open debate and public criticism of its leaders.

The wealthy, corrupt ruling hierarchy around Mugabe now were all
beneficiaries of his patronage, said Mukonoweshuro. "They are nothing
without Mugabe. If there was a revolt and they got rid of him, they would
lose everything they have -- including his protection, and some of them
would probably go to jail.

"How can you expect Mugabe's own creations to stand up to him?"

This week, the chances of any important debate neutralised in advance. On
Monday, ruling party spokesperson Nathan Shamuyarira announced that the
conference "will not discuss the issue of succession," local shorthand for
Mugabe's retirement and the choice of his replacement.

Every previous conference since Mugabe approached retirement age had been
preceded by almost identically worded bans by Shamuyarira on such talk.

On Tuesday, Mugabe delivered his annual state-of-the-nation address which
had television viewers wondering which country he was talking about.

"Corruption and dishonesty will not be tolerated," he intoned, a day after
political intervention reversed the eviction of a senior party official from
a white-owned farm he had grabbed for himself.

There would be "rational management" of prices of basic commodities, an echo
of the "fine-tuning" to prices of basic commodities he promised at last
year's annual conference. Fourteen new post offices had been opened this
year, he said, without a word on the strike that has stopped all postal
deliveries for the last three weeks.

"The conference is a non-event. You are not going to get any decisions that
will have any effect on the situation. The problem with Zimbabwe is
political, not economic," said Mukonoweshuro. - Sapa

      CAMBRIDGE, MASS. – Robert Mugabe, the much reviled president of
Zimbabwe, has at last been barred from this weekend's Commonwealth summit.
      Doing so strengthens the political and moral relevance of the group of
54 nations (Britain and its former dominions and colonies, nearly all of
which are African). Symbolically, doing so also undercuts Mr. Mugabe's
legitimacy, and strengthens the forces favoring regime change in Zimbabwe.

      Excluding Mugabe recognizes the great harm he has wreaked on his own
people, on southern Africa, on human rights, and on the image and meaning of
democracy in the Commonwealth and in Africa. The decision to prevent
Zimbabwe's participation in the summit reflects pressure put on President
Olusegun Obasanjo, the summit's host, by Britain and Australia. His decision
has prevented a boycott of the meeting by Queen Elizabeth and the heads of
government in Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and several other
Pacific nations, and thus enabled the Commonwealth to continue to function
as a critical assembly of English-speaking countries across the globe.

      The decision also delivered a rebuke to President Thabo Mbeki,
Mugabe's most outspoken defender and his main protector in the Commonwealth,
and could presage Zimbabwe's complete ouster from the club. Mr. Mbeki has
tried to pit African members of the Commonwealth against non-African
members, but that battle has now been lost. For the past 18 months,
Zimbabwe's membership has been suspended, but that suspension hardly changed
Mugabe's methods at home.

      Under Mugabe's autocratic leadership from 1980 until the late 1990s,
Zimbabwe boasted a prosperous economy based on agriculture and mining;
excellent race relations between the 12-million strong African majority and
100,000 whites, a handful of whom dominated the cultivation of commercial
crops and employed 400,000 African farm workers; domestic peace; a strong
judiciary; and a political system that Mugabe controlled but that observed
most of the usual democratic norms.

      Since 1998, because of Mugabe's increasingly corrupt and capricious
rule, however, his dispatch of 11,000 soldiers into the Congo, and attacks
on the commercial farming mainstay of the country, Zimbabwe's economy has
collapsed. About half of all Zimbabweans now go hungry, and widespread
starvation is likely in the months to come because of the destruction of
farming incentives and the lack of gasoline and diesel fuels. Annual
inflation is running about 900 percent, the country has exhausted almost all
of its foreign-exchange reserves, 80 percent of adult Zimbabweans are out of
work, AIDS is devouring the working class and driving life expectations to
under 35 years, hospitals and schools no longer function, and the government
regularly issues bizarre decrees that only worsen the economic and financial
mess.

      Mugabe allegedly rigged the parliamentary elections of 2000 (which his
party nevertheless only won narrowly) and last year's presidential poll.He
has discharged a raft of independent and honest judges and replaced them
with hacks. His henchmen bombed and then recently shut down the nation's
only independent daily newspaper. There are no independent TV or radio
stations.

      Nearly 300 political opponents have been killed this year, and their
followers deprived of internationally donated food. The leader of the main
opposition party is being tried on a trumped-up charge of treason, mainly
for contesting the presidential election against Mugabe.

      Regime change could be accomplished with ease - with African and
international effort.

      President Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have asked Mbeki to
abandon several years of quiet diplomacy and constructive engagement and
forthrightly to condemn Mugabe and the harm that he has inflicted on his
people and on Africa's image.

      There are a number of things Mbeki could do besides exerting his moral
authority. South Africa could cut off neighboring Zimbabwe's access to
electric power and imported petroleum. Mbeki could delegitimize Mugabe (as
has the Commonwealth) by ousting Zimbabwe from the Southern African
Development Community, or from the African Union, and by speaking out. He
could intervene militarily - and there are precedents for doing so in
Africa, such as Tanzania invading Uganda in 1979 to oust Idi Amin, or the
West African military intervention in Liberia and Sierra Leone in the 1990s
to put down insurgencies.

      But Mbeki refuses to chastise his fellow African head of state. Today,
Zimbabwe's main exports are the hordes of people fleeing across borders to
neighboring countries. Millions now work or try to work illegally in South
Africa or Botswana. The economic and political prospects of South Africa
itself are thus undermined by Mbeki's inexplicable refusal to act.

      The Commonwealth has a chance to stiffen Mbeki's resolve, and to
promise material and military support if South Africa removes Mugabe, averts
further chaos, and thus helps to return Zimbabwe to democratic rule. Respect
for Africa, assistance from the G-8 nations and the Commonwealth, and the
future of its peoples await positive decisions in Abuja.

      • Robert I. Rotberg is president of the World Peace Foundation and
director of the intrastate conflict program at the Belfer Center at
Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

BBC

 

African elephant numbers puzzle

By Alex Kirby BBC News Online environment correspondent The news may not be as good as it seems A study of African elephants suggests they may be more numerous than they were four years ago, scientists say. They think there are from 400,000 to 660,000 elephants across the continent, with large numbers in southern Africa. But the scientists, from IUCN-The World Conservation Union, are interpreting their findings with extreme caution. They say one explanation may be that the elephants are fleeing to protected areas to try to escape human pressure, thus giving an unduly hopeful picture. They say habitat loss and competition between people and elephants for resources remain among the principal challenges in elephant conservation. The scientists are members of IUCN's African elephant specialist group, and their study, the African Elephant Status Report, updates one produced in 1999. More questions than answers It is the latest in a series derived from a database on African elephants which since 1986 has been compiling information from the 37 countries where the animals live. Ivory poachers remain a potent threat The 1999 report concluded there were at least 300,000 elephants in Africa, and possibly as many as 487,000. The updated version says the higher figures may be partly explained by reported increases in savanna elephant populations in Botswana, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. But one of the report's authors, Julian Blanc, said the increase revealed little about how populations were faring at the continental level. He suspected there could be a more worrying explanation for the apparent population growth - that the elephants were crowding together for safety. He said: "Most elephant surveys are restricted to protected areas, and it is precisely to protected areas that elephants flock when their range is compressed by expanding human populations. "A high concentration of elephants in protected areas can give a misleading impression of increasing numbers." Huge unknowns This crowding under pressure, known as "hyper-aggregation", occurs in some other species, and was identified among North Atlantic cod shortly before the collapse of Canada's Grand Banks fishery in the early 1990s. There are still gaps in scientists' knowledge The authors say there are other possible reasons for caution in interpreting the figures: one is that they are based on data from just over half the total area where elephants may live. So much more work needs to be done in the unsurveyed areas to arrive at an accurate picture of changes in population. Julian Blanc said: "We now have estimates covering a much larger area than we did five years ago - and that alone can go a long way in explaining differences in numbers - but there are still huge gaps in our knowledge." The update's regional estimates show a wide variation, and considerable uncertainty: Southern Africa: from 246,000 "definite" to a "speculative" total of 300,000 animals Eastern Africa: at least 118,000 elephants, and possibly 163,000 Central Africa, with huge expanses of unprotected elephant range: somewhere between 16,500 and 196,000 animals West Africa: perhaps only 5,500 elephants, and at most 13,200. Julian Blanc told BBC News Online: "We know there are large, stable - in places perhaps increasing - elephant populations in southern and eastern Africa, where the amount of monitoring effort is greatest. "But even in these two regions there are countries - notably Sudan and Angola - with large areas of possible elephant range but about which we have virtually no information. "This uncertainty not only applies to numbers. Although we have reported an important contraction and increased fragmentation in elephant range in many parts of the continent, it is impossible to say whether this is a recent phenomenon or simply the result of the availability of better information. "At this stage, even with better information, it remains very difficult to disentangle real changes from perceived changes in elephant populations."

By RYDER GABATHUSE
04/12/03
FRANCISTOWN: Francistown might soon feel relief from the burden of thousands
of illegal Zimbabwean immigrants as youths from that country plan to return
to their homeland to stage “a mammoth march against the government of
President Robert Mugabe”.

Zimbabwean youths have grouped themselves under the auspices of Youth Arise
Zimbabwean Crisis Movement. Youths form the bulk of illegal Zimbabweans in
the city.

They said they were readying themselves for a “massive anti-Mugabe campaign”
planned for Plumtree on December 22 - Zimbabwe Unity Day. The youths
expressed concern at the hard life ordinary Zimbabweans faced and pointed
out that a loaf of bread cost Z$4,000.

They added that most Zimbabweans could not send their children to secondary
schools because it was too expensive.

Members of the Youth Arise Movement - linked to the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) - also handed over a letter in which they were seeking
assistance. “The Youth Arise movement is seeking your help in anyway you can
in order to provide our members with T-shirts and banners for the
anti-Mugabe campaign, which will commence on December 22,” the letter
states.

The youths have also indicated that anti-Mugabe marches would continue until
further notice. “We would appreciate any form of assistance as we too are
concerned about so many illegal immigrants in your country”.

The youths said protesting was the only way to solve the problems of
Zimbabwe. Response to the call for the protests were good and “the guys
willing to go”, the youths said.

The meeting place for the aliens has been the temporary bus and taxi rank,
as well as the new delayed bus terminal. Most of the “boys” made a quick
buck washing cars and doing menial jobs.

The other meeting place for Zimbabwean youth is the area around the Dumela
Industrial site where some of them sleep. They confess to sleeping on
cardboard boxes and wearing plastics collected from dumping sites that they
used as their beds and blankets.

The police are not aware of Zimbabwean youths assembling in Botswana for
anti-Mugabe demonstrations across the border. Central Police Station
Commander Superintendent Dinah Marathe only indicated that her office has
recently received a number of Zimbabweans fleeing from their country
claiming political refugee status.

She further stated that her officers have been working hard to flush out
illegal aliens from the city. She warned that most of them were
sweet-talkers who would freely hand out wrong information.

“We deal with illegals on a daily basis and in most cases they simply
mislead you”, she observed.

Last Saturday, a 22-year-old Zimbabwean student and opposition activist fled
into the country saying that his life was in danger. Jason Zulu Chavura
claimed that he jumped the border into Botswana because the dreaded Central
Intelligence Organisation operatives were targeting him for his political
activities - Mmegi