Self-sufficiency is a source of some pride in Zimbabwe.
The multinational brands common throughout the world for staple foods are
much less in evidence in Harare or the second city, Bulawayo, than elsewhere in
Africa.
Mugabe faces elections amid economic collapse and food
shortages
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The years of sanctions following Ian Smith's Unilateral
Declaration of Independence - the vain attempt to sustain rule by a tiny white
minority while the rest of the continent embraced independence - were ironically
responsible for substantial domestic industries.
Of course, an uncomfortably large proportion are still owned by whites.
But whoever holds the purse-strings, the brand-names are no longer in
evidence: whether domestic or foreign, the shelves of most foodstores are
worringly bare.
Prices up, supply down
The landmark presidential election is only weeks away, but Zimbabwe's economy
continues to worsen.
Prices more than doubled in 2001 - inflation was 112% - and the price
controls instituted by the government on a widening range of products have taken
retail prices to below the cost of production.
Thus the shortages - and the thriving black market for everything from
laundry soap to the maize-based staple, mealie meal.
Meanwhile, what produce there is continues to leak across the border.
The official exchange rate is 55 Zimbabwe dollars to one US dollar.
But traders from Zambia, Mozambique and elsewhere use the "parallel market"
rate of Z$300 to the greenback to buy low in Zimbabwe and sell high at home.
A success story...
The situation is quite a turnaround.
Once the economic success story of Southern Africa, Zimbabwe was the regional
breadbasket, the only southern African country to export food to Ethiopia during
the drought in the 1980s.
Both sides claim they hold the answers to rebuilding
the economy
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Its economy was doing well, its people were well educated and richer than
many of their regional peers.
Foreign investment was by African standards plentiful.
And it was - relatively - free of the endemic and high-profile corruption
which caused huge problems for many other African countries.
...Now a basket case?
But over the past five years things have got harder as urban areas ceased to
create jobs and rural areas felt the pressure too.
International Monetary Fund rules meant public investment was starved -
although the growing default on loans meant Zimbabwe was cut off from further
funding in 2000.
Cronyism by political elites increased, and the war in the Democratic
Republic of Congo and the focus on land reform has been used to try to divert
attention from domestic tribulations.
Now, according to one Southern African economist, the country is "a financial
basket case".
The economy contracted 4% in 2001. "The crop has been lost this year,
production has been lost, earnings are gone," he said.
Shuttered
The desperate push by the core of the ruling Zanu-PF party to ensure victory
for President Mugabe on 9-10 March has taken its toll.
Many farm workers have been left
homeless
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For the outside world, most of the attention has been on the seizures of
white-owned farms.
The effect on export earnings has been severe. But it has also displaced
thousands of black farmworkers, and what little activity continues on the farms
is limited to inefficient subsistence farming.
And much of the choicest land has gone either to party supporters, or to
Libyan and South African backers to pay for scarce fuel and power.
The disruptions caused by Zanu-PF's internal divisions and increasing
paranoia have hit industry just as hard as agriculture.
The price controls introduced in October last year mean many factories never
reopened following the long Christmas-New Year break.
The factories on Harare's outskirts are having trouble
surviving
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That made the unemployment rate even worse. On the government's own count,
about two in every three Zimbabweans is out of a job.
Closures happen for non-economic reasons too. In the past few months a number
of businesses have been attacked by Zanu-PF supporters if their employees or
owners are not party members.
And exacerbating the whole situation are periodic fuel shortages, which since
1998 have largely been caused by the need to supply the military's hugely
unpopular involvement in the war in Congo.
Beggar your neighbour?
The side-effects are hitting its neighbours.
South African president Thabo Mbeki's reluctance to go beyond quiet diplomacy
in encouraging better governance from the coterie surrounding Mr Mugabe has won
him few friends.
Zimbabwe could threaten Mbeki's 'African
renaissance'
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Although between them Mozambique and South Africa supply three quarters of
South Africa's energy needs, neither will act to pull the plug.
Within South Africa, the rand continues to weaken, partly through fears that
the troubles to the north could spill over.
Thousands of Zimbabweans try to cross the border illegally every month.
And further afield, the ambitious plans for the "New African Partnership for
Development" (NEPAD), of which Mr Mbeki is the main proponent, call for massive
inward investment.
But the turmoil in Zimbabwe threatens to stifle the inflows before they
begin.
Even Mr Mbeki's brother Moeletsi is complaining his sibling is letting Mr
Mugabe off too easily.
No easy answers
But what to do? Europe and the US are planning "smart sanctions" to penalise
the upper echelons of Zanu-PF.
But if they are imposed before the election, any chance of monitoring the
poll will disappear.
Even if they were, it will be months before they bite.
And assuming a Zanu-PF victory, it is only a matter of time before the
economy melts down altogether.
If the opposition Movement for Democratic Change can somehow win despite
violent repression - as the majority of Zimbabweans probably hope - the IMF will
be back.
Donors and investors may follow - but at a cautious distance.
Either way, it will be a long time before Zimbabwe can pick up the pieces
again.
