Zim Independent
Dumisani
Muleya
OPPOSITION Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan
Tsvangirai,
now leading a faction of the party, was yesterday digging in as
likely
leader of the rival camp, Professor Arthur Mutambara, appeared set to
roll
into the political hot seat.
Inside sources said Tsvangirai was
in a combative mood. He is prepared to
use his residual influence in the
MDC, they say, to fight to the bitter end
to hang on to the leadership in
what has become an escalating battle for the
heart and soul of the
party.
Tsvangirai's spokesman William Bango yesterday talked tough
when asked if
his boss or his emissaries had held any meetings with
Mutambara.
"Tsvangirai can't jump around looking for Mutambara if he
has not said he
wants a meeting with him. Mutambara has not requested such a
meeting," Bango
said.
"If such a request for a meeting is made it
will be considered when it
comes. But let's get this thing right: Tsvangirai
is the president of the
MDC and Mutambara is seeking office on a platform we
don't recognise."
He said Mutambara was an ordinary card-carrying
member who did not deserve
special treatment from "the
president".
Tsvangirai's lawyers this week wrote to the attorney of
MDC deputy leader
Gibson Sibanda's faction in a bid to shore up Tsvangirai's
authority. This
dramatically pushed up political temperatures
yesterday.
Professor Welshman Ncube, MDC secretary-general, a key
strategist in the
Sibanda faction, said: "If they believe they have a
genuine case why don't
they go to court?"
Meanwhile, sources
said, Mutambara continued to prepare himself for a grand
entry into local
politics at the congress of the Sibanda faction.
The former
University of Zimbabwe student leader, a professor of robotics
with vast
working experience internationally, caused a stir in politics this
week
after his return. Mutambara is widely expected to be elected leader of
the
Sibanda faction at the end of their congress in Bulawayo this
weekend.
Mutambara said he was not bargaining to be a faction leader
but a player in
a broad-based movement fighting for
democracy.
Former MDC MP Gabriel Chaibva, who worked with Mutambara
at the UZ as a
student leader, said he had no doubt about Mutambara's
"leadership qualities
and capacity to rejuvenate" the MDC.
But
there are sceptics who say Mutambara might find real politics on the
ground
difficult. They say he has been away for a long time and lacks the
skills to
survive on the rugged political battleground.
Sources said Mutambara
would take over despite fierce resistance from Gift
Chimanikire and his
supporters. Chimanikire has been loudly protesting over
Mutambara's
leadership bid because he wants the job. Indeed, he appears to
think it was
his for the taking.
However, sources said Chimanikire has not been
able to rally the faction
round him to launch a powerful assault on the
leadership.
Zim Independent
PRESIDENT
Robert Mugabe is coming under increasing pressure from his closest
political
and security advisors to talk to British Prime Minister Tony Blair
to
resolve Zimbabwe's multilayered crisis. But his initiative comes at
precisely the moment when Blair has abandoned all prospect of any
rapprochement with Zimbabwe's 82-year-old leader.
Diplomatic sources
said Mugabe's advisors were pushing for a meeting with
Blair in view of
deteriorating material conditions in the country. Zimbabwe
has been in the
grip of a debilitating political and economic crisis for the
past nine
years.
Sources said Mugabe's coterie of advisors - which includes
politicians and
state security agents managing a brittle political
transition - now want
talks with Blair as it appears to them it has become
the only way out of the
quagmire.
"Mugabe's security advisors,
who know exactly what's happening on the
ground, have been telling him it
would be better for him to swallow his
pride and talk to Blair about this
situation," a diplomatic source said.
"They think such a move can
open the way to break the political impasse, end
Zimbabwe's international
isolation and create an opportunity for economic
recovery."
This
explains Mugabe's remarks when receiving the credentials of Britain's
new
ambassador to Harare, Dr Andrew Pocock recently. He said the two
countries
should build bridges. But it comes as Blair, in talks with
President Thabo
Mbeki two weeks ago, is understood to have set his face
against any
dialogue, regarding it as pointless.
At the same time, South Africa -
a regional superpower - is said to be also
hardening its position on Harare
after Mugabe refused to cooperate with
Mbeki in his constitutional plan for
a negotiated political settlement in
Zimbabwe.
Diplomatic
hostility between Pretoria and Harare will almost certainly
intensify after
Mugabe's comments in his birthday interview in which he
implied everybody -
including friends - should "keep away" from Zimbabwe.
Sources said
Mbeki this week asked for the video footage of Mugabe's
interview to study
his remarks and act accordingly. Mbeki, sources said,
held talks with Blair
on a range of issue including Zimbabwe during their
Progressive Governance
summit at Didimala Game Lodge in Hammanskraal, north
of
Pretoria.
Sources said Mbeki told Blair that he had resolved to steer
clear of
Zimbabwe and "let the situation sort itself out". This is said to
be a view
shared by Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo.
Other
influential countries on the international diplomatic chessboard also
involved in the Zimbabwean question like the United States have publicly
shown growing hostility towards Mugabe's government. US president George
Bush recently attacked Mugabe for repression in a State of the Union
address. Already Washington has classified Zimbabwe as one of the six
"outposts of tyranny".
Sources said ambassadors of the most
influential countries represented in
Harare have come to a common conclusion
after initial differences to let
Mugabe "stew in his own
juice".
The diplomatic moves around Zimbabwe resemble what often
happens when an
internal political problem is
internationalised.
Sources said the state security agency, the
Central Intelligence
Organisation (CIO), has of late through formal and
informal liaison missions
with the British been giving clear signals that
Mugabe is ready for talks
with Blair.
A political solution,
sources say, has become the most viable option for
Mugabe's advisors because
they have now come to accept that policy measures
have failed to contain the
crisis.
Mugabe last Thursday gave the clearest signal yet that he was
prepared for
talks with Blair when he told Pocock he should help "build
bridges between
the two countries".
Pocock replaced Dr Rod Pullen
who hurriedly left Harare last month under
unclear circumstances. Although
Pullen cited personal reasons, sources said
it could have been related to
political developments.
A picture of Mugabe walking with Pocock at
State House - accompanied by a
big headline "Let's build bridges, President
tells UK" - was splashed on the
front page of the state-controlled Herald in
a move which could well be a
sign of a change of attitude towards Britain in
Harare. - Staff Writer.
Zim Independent
Augustine
Mukaro
GOVERNMENT appears determined to seize all land still in the hands of
white
farmers including those who survived the onslaught of the
controversial
fast-track land reform.
Sources in the Lands, Land
Reform and Resettlement ministry said government
last week dispatched a team
to Mashonaland West province to establish the
exact number of white farmers
still on farms and serve them with eviction
notices.
Last
Thursday, a team led by permanent secretary in the Lands ministry Simon
Pazvakavabwa served eviction notices on farmers in the Selous area, sources
said.
Farmers in Selous confirmed having received fresh 90-day
notices to wind-up
their operations, a move they said buttressed Minister
Didymus Mutasa's
threat that: "We are still hungry and we want all our land
back and all our
land to be used by our own people."
President
Robert Mugabe and Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono on the other
hand have
called for a halt to farm invasions. The contradictions in
government's
position undermine investor confidence and prospects of
boosting
agricultural production to ensure food security.
An estimated 400
white farmers are still on the land six years after the
launch of
government's chaotic and often violent land reform programme.
Farmers
who were given up to May to vacate their farms include fugitive
Zimbabwean
tycoon and a perceived ally of President Mugabe's government,
Billy
Rautenbach, who owned Marshlands Farm operated by his brother Peter in
the
Karoi area.
"It has been resolved that you move out of the farm on 14
May 2006 as the
land reform is being finalised,'' reads the eviction order
to Rautenbach and
other white farmers that was shown to the Zimbabwe
Independent at the
weekend.
Rautenbach, who is now spending most
of his time in Harare after fleeing
South Africa's Scorpions anti-crime
unit, is viewed as closely connected to
former Speaker of Parliament
Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Mnangagwa is locked in a vicious struggle with
retired army general Solomon
Mujuru for the control of Zanu PF after Mugabe
steps down in 2008.
Eleven other farmers in the area have also been
given eviction notices.
Former Commercial Farmers Union president Nick
Swanapoel is understood to
have received a notice to vacate Avalon farm,
also in Mashonaland West.
More than half of the 18 farmers who remain
in the Selous area are
understood to have been visited by the government
delegation, which
delivered eviction notices.
The majority of the
farmers who had remained on farms had strong links to
Zanu PF either due to
their past involvement with the CFU or their support
for the ruling party
through donations.
Zim Independent
Clemence Manyukwe
A FORMER high
ranking police officer, Senior Assistant Commissioner
Ngonidzashe Gambiza,
has taken President Robert Mugabe to court seeking
reinstatement after his
dismissal from the police force in July 2004 on
allegations of
misconduct.
In papers filed with the High Court, Gambiza said President
Mugabe should
not have consented to his dismissal that was recommended by a
police probe
because the president had not sanctioned the enquiry team in
the first
place, as required by the Police Act.
"The decision to
institute any disciplinary proceedings against a
commissioned officer in
terms of Section 50 of the Police Act should be
preceded by strict
compliance with Section 14 of the Act. In effect, the
president must
sanction any intended disciplinary action against any officer
before it is
implemented," argued Gambiza.
The former head of the Police Internal
Investigations Unit said he had cited
Mugabe as the first respondent "in his
official capacity as employer,
disciplining authority and dismissing
authority in respect of all
commissioned officers as provided in Section 14
of the Police Act".
In the papers, Gambiza said he was fired as a
result of differences between
the section he headed and the Criminal
Investigations Department (CID)
Vehicle Theft Squad. He said he was
wrongfully accused of having submitted a
damning report to President Mugabe
detailing alleged rampant corruption at
the Vehicle Theft
Squad.
In 2004, Gambiza instituted legal proceedings against Police
Commissioner
Augustine Chihuri, Home Affairs minister Kembo Mohadi and two
senior police
officers: deputy police commissioner, Godwin Matanga and
senior assistant
commissioner, Mary Masango, before withdrawing the
application and
substituting it with the latest one which includes President
Mugabe.
In the same year, Gambiza won another court case against
Chihuri when the
High Court ruled that his eviction at gunpoint from police
accommodation in
November 2004 was illegal.
On Tuesday, Gambiza's
lawyer, Charles Warara of Warara & Partners, confirmed
that they had
withdrawn the initial court application and submitted another
one that
included Mugabe, but refused to comment further.
Mugabe has not
opposed the application but Chihuri made submissions to the
effect that
Gambiza's sacking from the police force was above board.
The police
commissioner sought the dismissal of the application saying it
was
"hopelessly out of time" as it should have been filed eight weeks after
Gambiza's dismissal in 2004.
"Applicant was discharged as being
unsuitable for police duties in terms of
the Police Act after a board of
inquiry had been set up in terms of Section
50. In terms of Section 50 the
commissioner of police is empowered to
convene a board of enquiry
(suitability) for any member serving the force,"
he said.
Zim Independent
Shakeman
Mugari
THE country's manufacturing sector has lost 42% of its labour force in
the
last two years as companies closed down or downscaled operations due to
a
sustained economic meltdown, worsening Zimbabwe's soaring unemployment,
said
a State of the Manufacturing Sector report released
yesterday.
The annual survey, which measures manufacturing sector
performance and is
compiled by the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries
(CZI), pours cold water
on government's claims that the economy has turned
the corner.
It said the few remaining workers have had their hours
severely reduced
because of capacity underutilisation. The manufacturing
sector has shrunk by
more than 40% over the past three years as the economic
crisis continues
unabated.
The survey said retrenchments and
reduced working hours in the sector had
been caused by low capacity
utilisation which it said was at its lowest.
Capacity utilisation, the
survey said, had plunged due to shortages of
foreign currency, raw materials
and a slump in demand.
It added that fuel shortages and power cuts
had also affected utilisation.
The survey established that only 13% of the
companies that responded to the
survey were operating at above 75% of
capacity.
"Overall, the fact that only 13% of the responding
companies are operating
at over 75% capacity means that most companies are
unable to meaningfully
cover their costs and utilise their standing
capacity," the report said,
adding that this showed that, "the country's
installed capacity is therefore
being grossly underutilised".
The
survey found that most Zimbabwean business people had lost confidence in
the
economy and did not believe that the government was capable of changing
the
country's fortunes in the near future.
"The results indicate a
worrying level of pessimism about the economic
recovery process," it
said.
Out of the managers surveyed, only 16% of respondents shared
government's
claims that the ailing economy would recover between 2006 and
2007, while
19% believed it would only improve in 2008.
A
whopping 49% did not believe that the economy could be turned around
within
the next half a decade to 2010.
"The main reason was that they did
not think there was anything currently
taking place or likely to take place
in the foreseeable future that would
significantly change the economic
fortunes of Zimbabwe by 2010," the report
said.
The survey also
reveals a significant drop in business confidence and that
more people are
more pessimistic than they were in 2000. Optimists dwindled
to only 9% of
respondents compared to 50% in 2000.
It said there were indications
that despite a slight rise in the business
confidence levels soon after RBZ
governor Gideon Gono's appointment, there
were now strong signs that most
see a bleak future for their businesses.
Zim Independent
Ray
Matikinye
THERE is a similarity between the invitation extended to Robert
Mugabe by
the late Jason Ziyaphapha Moyo to return from exile in Ghana in
the late 50s
to participate in the nationalist struggle and last week's
return of Arthur
Mutambara to join mainstream politics.
Mugabe was
elected to an organisational role and he soon became one of
Zapu's most
erudite leaders. He was among a handful of black Rhodesians who
were
well-educated and therefore it was assumed he could lead as a natural
consequence of his education.
Mutambara is an academic too, but
that is where the similarities end. The
likely ascent onto the political
stage of Mutambara as leader of the
pro-senate faction will be both a
blessing and a curse to opposition
politics in Zimbabwe, analysts
say.
Mutambara, a former student activist at the University of
Zimbabwe in the
late 80s, has joined the political fray which has seen
Morgan Tsvangirai and
Welshman Ncube's wings of the dysfunctional Movement
for Democratic Change
pitted against each other.
He has been
widely tipped to take over the leadership of the pro-senate camp
of the MDC
at a congress to be held in Bulawayo this weekend.
But in a statement
released after a marathon meeting with the pro-senate
faction in Harare on
Monday Mutambara appeared to dampen media speculation
by saying that he
would only accept the invitation if it led to the
reunification of the
warring MDC factions. He wanted to lead a democratic
struggle that involved
all democratic forces including civic organisations,
he
said.
Professor Brian Raftopoulos of the Zimbabwe Institute of
Development Studies
at the University of Zimbabwe said Mutambara could be a
good leader if
elected.
"He has a good history as a student
leader but will need time to grow into
the position of national leader,"
Raftopoulos said.
He said Mutambara had the capacity to be a good
leader aided by his appeal
to youths.
"He has got to be prepared
for a long battle to build a national stature
through a vigorous media
campaign to create awareness among the electorate,
especially those in rural
areas in order to compete with the advantage that
Morgan Tsvangirai already
has," Raftopoulos said.
"There is a lot of groundwork to be done to
get him known after a long
absence. Morgan has an advantage because, besides
Mugabe he is the only
other leader with a national profile and
appeal.
"Tsvangirai still feels the national profile he has built
over the six years
the MDC has been in existence before the split would be a
good point in his
favour but Mutambara's presence will create intense
competition for
recognition between the two camps."
But
Raftopoulos said it was going to be an uphill task to build Mutambara's
national profile although Zanu PF has similar problems to build a profile
for whoever was going to replace Mugabe.
He described Mutambara
as highly intelligent but warned that as a
prospective leader Mutambara
would have to deal with "huge challenges" such
as media restrictions and the
laws that subverted individual freedoms.
Eldred Masunungure of the UZ
politics department said Mutambara's entry into
the political fray had
become a major factor in Zimbabwe's political
landscape.
Commenting about Mutambara's organisational capacity
Masunungure said: "He
had the capacity to mobilise against a one-party state
at a time when
challenging the state was unthinkable during a time when
Independence
euphoria was still strong among the academia. He shook the
state apparatus
and is not someone who should be taken
lightly.
Masunungure said it would be extremely naïve of either
Mugabe or Tsvangirai
to take Mutambara for granted.
"But we could
be seeing a polarisation in the Ncube camp just like the spit
that occurred
in the main MDC over the senate elections," he said. "If the
issue is not
handled carefully it will lead to an implosion within the Ncube
camp."
Masunungure said Mutambara had the capability to energise
and invigorate the
MDC - a factor that works in favour of the Ncube camp in
the fight for
supremacy.
But on the other hand, Masunungure said,
"Mutambara's presence is likely to
introduce tension between Welshman Ncube
and Gibson Sibanda and the tribal
factor in Zimbabwe politics needs to be
addressed. That is the reason why
they are eager to get him on board
although this might send Chimanikire back
to the Tsvangirai camp where his
trade union colleagues are."
Masunungure said Mutambara was very
articulate and charismatic judging from
the September 1987 student
demonstration he organised. "He strikes me as a
natural politician who knows
the psychology of the masses. He is someone who
should not be taken lightly
and I think his arrival on the political scene
is a landmark
development."
He said Mutambara was able to infuse the student
leadership with courage
with his charisma.
"He shares the same
articulate trait with Jonathan Moyo but is a strategist
who knows when to
retreat unlike Moyo who plunges into issues headlong,"
Masunungure
said.
"He is more skillful in reading a situation than Moyo and I
understand he
was working with Moyo on his United People's Movement
project."
Former student leader and MDC MP Munyaradzi Gwisai, who was
secretary-general in the SRC led by Mutambara, said: "Arthur played an
incredible role in the history of the democratic struggle of this country.
But I don't have respect for a very dangerous constellation of right-wing
capitalist formations that he is about to become part of."
Zim Independent
Itai
Mushekwe
DESPITE a change in representation, Sweden will maintain its
insistence on
upholding human rights and good governance in its relations
with Zimbabwe.
Newly-appointed Swedish ambassador to Zimbabwe, Sten
Rylander yesterday
said: "The promotion and protection of rights are very
good examples of
endeavours that could ignite dialogue on the need for
national rebuilding.
Human rights are indivisible and no rights are more
important than others."
Rylander made the remarks at the hand-over of
vehicles for a child rights
project in Murehwa.
He reiterated his
country's stance that although relations were strained
between Zimbabwe and
the European Union, Sweden would not abandon the people
of this
country.
"This is why we continue providing development assistance
through civil
society organisations, such as the Human Rights Trust of
Southern Africa
(SAHRIT).
Sweden's support for Zimbabwe covers a
variety of areas, including
humanitarian support in the form of drought
relief and construction of
shelter, civic education, media and culture," he
said
He noted that Zimbabweans have had to contend with a dreadful
six-year
economic recession that has been compounded by a calamitous
political
impasse.
Zim Independent
Paul Nyakazeya
THE Zimbabwe
currency depreciated by an average of 15% against a basket of
major
currencies comprising the United States dollar, British pound, South
African
rand, Botswana pula and Euro on the interbank market in January, a
financial
institution reported this week.
In its monthly economic commentary for
the month of January made available
this week, diversified financial
services group, Finhold, said the dollar
fell by 15%, 14% and 11% against
the Zambian and Malawi kwachas and
Mozambican metical
respectively.
The weakening local currency forced prices of both
imported and local goods
up, further creating inflationary pressure on the
economy, the report said.
Sharp drops in international aid, tourism
receipts and exports had put
pressure on Zimbabwe's currency.
The
financial services group said the dollar was likely to depreciate
further,
though at a slower rate following the introduction of the
volume-based
exchange rate system.
"We expect the local currency to suffer further
losses during the course of
the year, more so if fears of food shortages
become a reality," Finhold
said.
The local currency opened the
year trading at $82 300 against the United
States dollar, falling by over
10% during the first three weeks of the year.
The Zimbabwe dollar is
presently trading around $99 201 against the US
dollar.
On the
parallel market, the US dollar is trading at around $145 000 and $155
000.
The volume-based exchange rate introduced by the Reserve
Bank on January 24
has kept the exchange rate fixed due to low transaction
volumes on the
interbank foreign currency market.
"The dollar is
expected to remain relatively stable aided by the
introduction of the
(volume-based) exchange rate management system and the
reduction of the
export proceeds retention period to 30 days," Finhold said.
"However,
in the absence of significant foreign currency inflows, the
crawling rate
may become unsustainable and result in the overvaluation of
the Zimbabwe
dollar," the group said.
Zim Independent
AFRICAN
Distillers Ltd (Afdis) has joined a list of consumer goods producers
and
retailers mourning the erosion of demand due to rising inflation, a
development that could be a precursor to growing consumer resistance in the
country.
Afdis said consumers had hit its bottom line after a
significant reduction
in demand for its products during the first quarter -
particularly the
festive season in December.
"Consumers diverted
expendi-ture to essential goods and services," Afdis
said in a statement
accompanying its interim half-year results.
Sales volumes for the
half-year to December 31, 2005 were 34% below those
for the comparable
period last year, but the group managed to produce
reasonable results under
the circumstances, with net turnover growing by
288% to $348 billion while
attributable income increased by 330% to $117
billion.
Afdis is
involved in the manufacture, importation and marketing of branded
wines and
spirits for distribution in Zimbabwe and export.
The company
maintained a good cash position despite a reduction in sales in
the second
quarter and on-going currency devaluations that have negatively
impacted
upon its cash generation capacity.
Cash generated from operations
amounted to $152 billion. Of this, $123
billion was reinvested in working
capital and $14 billion in capital
expenditure.
"Disposable
incomes will come under further pressure with the result that
the next six
months will be difficult," Afdis said.
With inflation likely to move
higher, the group acknowledged that management
of liquidity would be very
critical to its survival during the second half
of its financial
year.
Zimbabwe's retail sector has been caught unawares by growing
consumer
resistance in the country following five years of
recession.
The biggest retail giant, OK Zimbabwe Ltd, last year
sounded the alarm
bells.
OK Zimbabwe's CEO, Willard Zireva, said
while its turnover for the year to
December 2005 was expected to increase,
sales volumes had come under threat.
"We're beginning to see
resistance from customers to continued prices
hikes," said
Zireva.
Delta Corporation, which enjoys a near-monopoly in the
beverages sector
(beer and carbonated soft drinks), said there had been a
decline in
beverages consumption. - Staff Writer.
Zim Independent
Eric Chiriga
THE
Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe says current power cuts by the Zimbabwe
Electricity Supply Authority (Zesa) have badly affected business in the
sector.
The chamber's chief executive officer, David Murangari, said
a power cut of
four hours translates to an 18-hour loss of
production.
"Whenever there is a power cut, the whole shift is
distorted and time is
lost. Time cannot be reversed," Murangari told
businessdigest.
He said the losses in revenue incurred due to the
power cuts were
"significant".
Murangari said the exchange rate
had also adversely affected operations in
the mining sector.
He
said before the last monetary policy statement there had been no
meaningful
movements in the official exchange rate.
"Movement in the exchange
rate has been sluggish and it needs to be
adjusted," he
said.
However, he said the foreign currency retention levels were now
viable.
In response to the issue of an increase in raw materials
consumption without
a corresponding increase in output, Murangari said at
times raw materials
were used in developing the mines and not getting the
mineral.
"Sometimes you are mining lower grade ore and you use more
explosives and
other raw materials to mine more ore and at the same time
develop the mine
and there is no increase in output."
Murangari
confirmed that they had a meeting with the Reserve Bank last week
in which
they discussed problems in the mining industry.
"We had a meeting at
the Reserve Bank where we discussed the problems
(affecting mines)," he
said, refusing to discuss details of their meeting.
He said
perpetrators of crimes in the sector, particularly smuggling, should
be
brought to book as they tainted the entire industry.
Recently, the
Chamber of Mines wrote to the Minister of Mines, Amos Midzi,
responding to
allegations of smuggling, policing, empowerment and other
issues raised by
the RBZ governor Gideon Gono in his last monetary policy
statement.
Zim Independent
Paul
Nyakazeya
JUSTICE minister Patrick Chinamasa this week poured cold water on
Reserve
Bank of Zimbabwe governor, Gideon Gono's plea to government to grant
amnesty
to fugitive business executives who have skipped the country, saying
Zimbabwe's law only allowed such amnesty after convictions in the courts of
law.
Six bankers fled the country at the height of a financial
craisis in 2004,
facing allegations of externalising huge sums of cash or
illegally dealing
in foreign currency.
Speaking to businessdigest
on Wednesday, Chinamasa said if the bankers had a
case to answer, they were
unlikely to be granted amnesty.
"If one commits a crime or crimes,
justice is supposed to take place,
especially if (the crimes) involve
pulling the economy down. I will not
comment much on that subject as that
would depend upon evidence gathered by
the police," Chinamasa said,
referring questions on the issue to the
Attorney-General's
office.
Chinamasa said he had not heard of any reports suggesting
that Gono had made
a formal request to government to declare amnesty on the
bankers.
"Only the president has powers to grant amnesty. Like I
said, I do not want
to go into detail or comment on that subject because I
haven't got enough
information."
No comment was immediately
available from the Attorney-General's office.
Gono last month asked
government to grant amnesty to business executives who
fled the country at
the height of a crackdown in the financial sector.
"We call upon
government to declare an amnesty to all those who may have
erred and strayed
economically in the past, so that a new beginning can be
worked out after
which any future deviations from the national code of
conduct and ethics
should invite mandatory custodial sentences," said Gono.
The six bank
executives are Intermarket chief executive Nicholas Vingirayi,
Barbican
chief executive Mtuli Ncube and four NMB directors - Julius Makoni
(CEO),
Otto Chekeche, James Mushore and Francis Zimuto.
The six have denied
any wrongdoing but insist they will not return to
Zimbabwe because they are
not assured of a free trial.
Zim Independent
Editor's Memo
Vincent Kahiya
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe's government last year
ordered the destruction of
thousands of homes ostensibly to crack down on
crime and spur Zimbabwe's
economic regeneration.
Suborned economists,
commentators and fellow politicians applauded Mugabe's
plan as the work of a
genius almost deserving of a Nobel Prize for
economics.
Picture
this. The genius Mugabe is invited to give a lecture and he tells
this story
to starry-eyed undergraduates as an illustration of his economics
ingenuity.
"We are constructing brand new houses, mending those
which require to be
mended, where it is necessary to destroy some. But the
thrust is a
reconstruction one, a positive thrust to rebuild
things."
Additionally, there ".will be joy on the part of those who
did not have
homes, joy on the part of those who had homes which could not
accommodate
fully their families. Let's bring about that joy and we shall
erase this
image of a Zimbabwe that is in ruins." (July 15,
2005)
He is surprised why some people do not embrace the joy of
government-induced
domestic destruction so that all may
prosper.
At this point, the auditorium reverberates with thunderous
applause. Here is
a president who turns government forces against his own
citizens, to destroy
thousands of homes to create the aggregate demand
necessary - for housing,
furniture, appliances, etc - and put Zimbabwe back
on the road to
prosperity. Mugabenomics takes academics by
storm.
Scholars start to take an interest in his public statements
and they do not
need to wait long for him to pronounce another theorem.
Eights months later
he offers theorists more nuggets.
"Those who
say printing money will cause inflation are suggesting that you
just fold
your hands and say 'aah, let the situation continue and let the
people
starve'.
"The Good Lord up there has given you a brain and the brain
must function,
not in a stereotyped manner but in a flexible manner ... so I
will print
money today so that people can survive." (February 19, 2006).
Applause!
He will print more to buy foreign currency to import fuel,
food, medicine,
military equipment and more Peugeot 607s. The printing press
at Fidelity,
which is running more constantly than pumps at Jaffrey Morton
waterworks,
needs spare parts. It has to print more notes to buy forex so
the country
can import spare parts for it!
There are notes
everywhere. Companies manufacturing wheelbarrows design "new
models" to
carry notes. Kombis will require trailers or roof racks to store
notes. The
benefits for the downstream industries are immense and
opportunities for
employment-creation limitless. This is not a bad dream but
a 21st century
nightmare.
There is a dangerous pattern of destruction by this
government that we have
been made to believe is for the benefit of the whole
nation. The land reform
we were told was meant to correct racial imbalances,
albeit by first
destroying the very base of this economy in preparation for
a major
rebuilding exercise. That is a farrago of nonsense. Operation
Murambatsvina
was crafted in the same crazy fashion. And then there is a
spirited attempt
to trash our economy by printing money on the pretext that
it will make us
richer.
This strange economic theory has its
roots deep in the facile mantras of
nationalism and sovereignty. There is no
place for common sense here. Our
poverty does not stem from lack of paper
money but because we do not have
resources of intrinsic
value.
Simple economics denotes that people need resources to live
and live well.
Money is exchanged for resources. The value of money is what
it will buy,
and that value is fairly constant. The value of a banknote is
in the eye of
the beholder. If there's confidence in the currency then
printing more of it
allows the creation of wealth. If you print too much
then confidence
collapses and you're in trouble.
Imagine that
Bill Gates writes you an IOU for US$100 000. That IOU has worth
because you
know Bill Gates has money, land, and resources to back it up.
It's currency.
Now imagine a beggar on the street hands you an IOU for $100
000: it's
worthless, because you know he doesn't have anything worth $100
000 to back
it up.
Zimbabwe can't get richer by printing more money for the same
reason a
homeless guy can't get rich by writing IOUs. Just being a country
doesn't
give you the ability to create value and worth. It's as simple as
that.
Zim Independent
Dumisani
Muleya
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe's lengthy interview was on Sunday night
screened on
state television to mark the occasion of his birthday on Tuesday
when he
turned 82. He spoke on a wide range of issues, which might act as a
reality
check for Zimbabweans.
He raised numerous issues ranging from
history, economics, politics, HIV and
Aids, his own personal health, and his
succession, to slavery and
colonialism, neo-imperialism, alleged plots to
oust his regime, the
dominance of the global order by the West and the
United Nations reform
agenda.
He attacked US President George
Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair
for interfering in Zimbabwe's
internal affairs. African leaders were
described as cowards for failing to
tell Bush and Blair "to go to hell"
after they rejected Mugabe's disputed
re-election in 2002.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, Nigerian
leader Olusegun Obasanjo and
others who tried to help to resolve the local
crisis were told to "keep
away".
Zimbabwean ambassador to South
Africa Simon Khaya Moyo has been clumsily
trying to do damage limitation by
denying Mugabe was referring to Mbeki and
others when he said they should
keep away.
Posing as a moral knight, Mugabe also whined about
cultural and moral
decadence in Zimbabwe. He lashed out at gay people and
youths who ape
western culture.
Cabinet ministers came under fire
for corruption and incompetence.
The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) was described as a monster and a
political instrument for regime
change. Mugabe insinuated the IMF was
recently working to to remove his
regime. He said the IMF has never helped
Zimbabwe even though his government
in the past secured balance-of-payments
support from it.
On
economic policy, Mugabe firmly rejected orthodox ideas - "bookish
economics"
as he calls it - and vowed to pursue his own voodoo
prescriptions. He said
he would continue to print money to alleviate
socioeconomic hardships. This
coming from a supposed economist!
Exonerating himself from any
failure, Mugabe blamed capricious weather
conditions and sanctions for the
economic crisis in Zimbabwe. He tried to
portray Zimbabwe as a victim of
external aggression.
On a lighter note, he said his doctors had told
him his health was good, to
the extent that his bones were like those of "a
28-year-old boy".
He said he usually goes for checks twice a year and
encouraged citizens to
follow suit without saying what he is doing about the
collapsing health care
system.
Mugabe also spoke about soccer,
slamming the Zimbabwe Football Association
for failure, and what he had
bought his wife, Grace, for Valentine's Day.
Now to return a verdict
on Mugabe's interview: it provided the clearest sign
yet that he is rapidly
losing his grip on reality. His detachment from
events on the ground and the
situation around him shocked many.
Mugabe appeared off message and
handcuffed to the past, thus confirming he
is beyond his sell-by date as a
leader.
His analysis of the current political and economic crisis was
based on a
flawed premise, and was, in the end, neither interesting nor
convincing. Due
to the lack of structured analysis, Mugabe was found wanting
and exposed on
real issues, especially to do with the economy. He struggled
to articulate
fundamental political, policy and institutional issues
underlying the
prevailing crisis.
Eventually, Mugabe - assisted
by a rather apologetic interviewer - just
turned the show into a platform
for a blame game now typical of his regime's
head-in-the-sand
politics.
While denying he was an autocrat, Mugabe managed to prove
he was not only a
political dictator but also an intellectual one as well by
refusing to
listen to other people's ideas.
Describing others as
intellectual slaves, he also failed to realise that, in
fact, he himself is
a prisoner of shibboleths of the past. This is made
worse by his tendency to
reason by conclusion on issues.
However, Mugabe's interview provided
interesting insights into his
make-believe world. It showed he is rigidly
opposed to reform. It also
indicated what he thinks about African leaders,
including Mbeki: that they
are not revolutionaries, but
cowards.
The interview also exposed his threadbare grasp of modern
economics and his
struggle to get to grips with global dynamics. It helped
to confirm the
wholesale abdication of reason and a complete breakdown of
common sense in
government.
Mugabe avoided certain telling
issues, including the fact that currently
state institutions and government
departments - a vast swathe of the
bureaucracy - have collapsed due to
leadership and policy failures. This
explains why the functions of a number
of ministries are now performed by
the central bank which has assumed a
quasi-fiscal instead of a monetary
policy role.
Mugabe could also
not explain why government has lost capacity for effective
policy
formulation and implementation, something at the heart of the current
system's virtual collapse.
Apart from endorsing the current local
government system, Mugabe did not say
why government is failing to deliver
even basic services - water,
electricity, education, roads, transport and
health care - the sort of
things that make any political administration
legitimate.
In the end, the interview was a yarn-spinning endeavour
that only helped to
confirm Mugabe is now a past master of politics and man
of the past.
Zim Independent
By Priscilla
Misihairabwi-Mushonga
RECENTLY in parliament I tabled a motion to commemorate
the death of
Corretta Scott King, wife of the late Dr Martin Luther King
Junior.
I felt it was important to find a way of honouring an individual
who has
been a role model and inspiration to oppressed people around the
world.
Throughout her life she fought against prejudice, violence and
inequality.
She spoke out for the marginalised and championed their human
rights.
Like her husband, Corretta's passion for equality and social
justice never
wavered despite the hostile political environment in which
these goals were
pursued.
The passion that she and her husband
demonstrated permeated throughout the
US civil rights movement. It
galvanised its structures, mobilised the
grassroots and inspired individuals
to stand up and fight for their basic
rights.
Corretta's death has
prompted me to reflect on the history of our own
liberation struggle and the
manner in which it is being fought today.
To peacefully advance
progressive and democratic change in a society
deliberately structured to
promote the interests of a particular group,
which aggressively guards its
status and interests, requires not just unity
of purpose among those waging
the struggle, but also an individual
commitment to act outside of the group
construct and engage in individual
protests about the state of
society.
When Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat to a white
person, she was not
acting in accordance with a carefully-structured plan of
civil disobedience.
Her action was instinctive, reflecting her own
sense of anger, offended
dignity and degradation.
Her own
personal experience provoked her to take a stand against a system
which
denied her basic rights, denied her dignity and forced her to live as
a
second-class citizen in her own country.
When I reflect on the
courageous individual actions of people like Parks, I
question why similar
individual acts of protest are so rare in today's
Zimbabwe.
Part
of the reason is no doubt due to the framework of repression that has
been
created, and the consequent climate of genuine fear that it has
provoked.
This in itself, however, does not fully explain the phenomenon.
In my
view, the answer also lies in the systematic manner in which President
Robert Mugabe and Zanu PF have eroded people's pride for their
country.
A study of the history of civil disobedience in various
contexts illustrates
the close relationship of passion and pride with
individual acts of courage
and protest.
To imbue a sense of pride
and passion, people need to be empowered, they
need to feel that they are
playing a part in shaping the society in which
they live and they need to
believe that the government and its institutions
are geared towards
promoting and protecting their basic rights.
In Zimbabwe, the vast
majority are cognisant of their exclusion and
remoteness from the
institutions and processes which impact on their every
day
lives.
There is no connection to the centre or a sense of belonging.
This umblical
cord has been deliberately cut off by the current regime. To
them
nationalism is an exclusive concept. They have deliberately constructed
a
dichotomy of which the guiding ethos is" "you are either with us or
against
us".
Anyone who holds views which are at variance with
the status quo is
instantly labelled a "traitor" or "enemy of the
state".
Zanu PF's privatisation of the liberation struggle in the
post-Independence
period is a manifestation of its myopic definition of
nationalism.
In the eyes of the Zanu PF leadership, they - and not
the people - possess
ownership of everything associated with the liberation
struggle.
They contemptuously ignore the fact that it was the people
of this country
who secured our Independence and not a clique of
individuals. Only the
people can own the liberation agenda.
The
deliberate attempt to disconnect the people and deny them a sense of
ownership over a shared history is further reflected by the flagrant refusal
by the government to formulate a constitution, in full consultation with the
people, which encapsulates the guiding principles and values of our fight
against Ian Smith's Rhodesia.
The government regularly waxes
lyrical on the importance of patriotism and
yet denies the people the
processes and instruments that are necessary to
foster national pride and
patriotism.
A constitution should be a symbol of national pride. It
should act as the
catalyst for fostering a culture of national unity and
identity.
In Zimbabwe, our much-amended constitution is simply
tailored to suit the
whims of a ruling clique.
One of the biggest
challenges facing the MDC is how to restore the patriotic
fervour that Zanu
PF has diluted. We need to reawaken people's pride and
passion for Zimbabwe.
To do this, we first have to reconnect with the people
and ensure that they
have a sense of ownership of our agenda for peaceful
and democratic
change.
We must bridge any gaps that have developed between the party
leadership,
the party structures and the people. The people must feel
empowered, valued
and part of the national effort to revive Zimbabwe's
fortunes.
We cannot afford to be complacent and take it for granted
that the people
will simply back the MDC because it offers an alternative to
Zanu PF. This
would be political folly. We have to get out there and inspire
the people
with our patriotic zeal and vision for Zimbabwe.
We
need to make our vision the bedrock for a revival of national pride. Only
then will we see the acts of individual protest that, taken collectively,
will help us to re-claim the democratic space that has been taken
away.
* Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga is MDC parliamentary
spokesperson.
Zim Independent
By Bruce Gemmill
AS a
dispossessed farmer and one who is determined not to be driven into
exile, I
fervently believe I will one day soon be back on my farms and begin
the long
haul of bringing them back to life.
We produced tobacco, deciduous fruit
and weaners. Just before our eviction
we were in the process of applying for
export processing zone (EPZ) status,
having made the decision to go into
greenhouse production.
All we produced was exportable.
When I
return to my farms, which I do from time-to-time, the situation is so
different from what it used to be. It is silent, empty and has the feeling
of a graveyard, full of memories and sadness.
Getting the farmers
back onto their farms and into production makes economic
and humanitarian
sense, nothing else does.
I employed 170 people as regulars, who in
turn supported about 1 000
dependants. Most of my regulars are now located
in the nearby communal land,
they say, waiting for me to return. I keep in
contact. They have no jobs or
money and are chronically short of
food.
A high proportion of them are reported to have died. I am
informed there are
now only four settler families left on my farms plus two
beer selling
outlets. Land reform? No, it is denial and
destruction.
Large-scale commercial agriculture in Zimbabwe has a
substantial comparative
advantage over countries in the northern hemisphere
with whom we seek to
trade.
We have the ability to produce and
sell a wide range of agricultural
products both fresh and processed at
highly-competitive prices. We have a
climate that allows us to produce crops
all year round.
A rainfall pattern that usually produces sufficient
runoff water to be
stored for use in the dry season and adequate good
quality arable land, both
high and lowveld.
We also have long
daylight hours, a large rural labour force (currently
unemployed) who are
flexible and capable of high productivity, and most
importantly of all
(until it was forced to disband) a competent and
competitive commercial
farming community which could hold its own anywhere
in the
world.
The tobacco industry exemplifies this comparative advantage
very well.
Starting in 1980, this industry fought its way back to a
leading position in
the word market. It became a world-class industry,
respected and trusted by
both the trader and the
manufacturer.
Today it is in ruins, Brazil has taken over our market.
A properly
reconstructed large-scale commercial agriculture will in addition
to
providing food security at home, be able to seek out and exploit
opportunities in the dynamic and fast-changing world food
market.
It is not entirely the fault of the white farming community
that we do not
have a black farming community capable of taking over
abandoned commercial
farms.
The Zanu PF government has existed
for 25 years and during that time it has
made no effort to correct that
imbalance.
Large-scale commercial farming was a national asset, even
though it was in
private ownership.
The same description would
apply to the mining industry and tourism. All
qualify as national assets
because they exploit the natural resources and
bring benefit to all
Zimbabweans, either directly or indirectly.
"Land is the economy and
the economy is land" was a vacuous statement, on
par with "never in a
thousand years".
Land has no intrinsic value; it only has value when
you grow things on it,
extract minerals from it, build on it or persuade
tourists to come and look
at it and what grows out of it.
"Land
is the economy and the economy is land" can be understood when used in
the
context of a tub-thumping electioneering speech. But when used in the
context of everyday life in the modern world in which we struggle to survive
and compete, it is irrelevant nonsense.
Only after the present
political debacle has been sorted out and brought to
a credible conclusion
can a serious debate about our return to economic good
health get
underway.
It is imperative that the reconstruction of large-scale
commercial
agriculture is at the epicentre of this debate. It is known and
accepted
that the disruption of commercial agriculture is the genesis of
this
country's economic collapse, therefore the corollary must be its
reconstruction if we are serious about getting out of the present
morass.
To pretend that we can manoeuvre our way around this
contentious political
hot potato is dishonest and delusional. From the
platform created by a
recovered large-scale commercial agriculture, we can
diversify and expand
into a more industrialised and organised economy. There
are no shortcuts on
offer.
The reconstruction of commercial
agriculture should not be done in a
piecemeal manner, as some members of the
present government seem to be
contemplating. It simply won't work.
Agricultural problems can only be
solved by pragmatic agricultural
solutions.
What we put together this time must last for generations -
a truly massive
undertaking.
It is estimated an investment in the
region of US$15 billion will be
required to restore the industry to where it
was in year 2000. This figure
excludes the cost of refurbishing and
reconstructing the upstream and
downstream service
industries.
This money can only come from the international donor
community. Assistance
of this scale will be predicated on proof of judicious
and corruption-free
disbursement. The scale of destruction wantonly carried
out by the
government is mind-boggling.
The Reserve Bank governor
(Gideon Gono) spends a lot of his time advising us
that he can navigate the
economy out of its present straits by fiscal and
financial manipulation. He
knows very well he is dealing with the symptoms
and not the
cause.
He gives the game away when he goes to plead with the
president on behalf of
the 5% of commercial farmers still left on the
farms.
This plea has interesting implications. If a mere 5% can alter
the course of
events, should he not be telling the president: "Get the
remaining 95% back
on their farms and the country's problems are
solved"?
This of course will not happen. In Zanu PF circles, it is a
heresy to tell
the truth. The law of unintended consequences is clearly on
show in the
aftermath of this politically-engineered
catastrophe.
The obscene comparison between the undeserving rich
minority and the
deserving poor majority was not planned or even
intended.
The government was totally unaware of the complexities and
finely tuned
forces that are constantly at play in the industry called
large-scale
commercial agriculture.
Once the avalanche of
economic collapse started, there was nothing the
government could do to stop
it; a massive loss of face was unthinkable. I do
not see how the government
can survive the present crisis.
* Bruce Gemmill is a dispossessed
farmer and land activist.
Zim Independent
By Itai
Masotsha Zimunya
ON October 4 1989 at the University of Zimbabwe arose one of
the most
noteworthy acts of resistances to President Robert Mugabe's rule.
The
students' union rose against the one-party state agenda and compelled
Mugabe
to act on corrupt government chefs.
Arthur Mutambara was the
union president and Munyaradzi Gwisai secretary. It
is this era of student
activism that gave the duo fame.
Today Mutambara is set to lead the
pro-senate faction of the MDC. However,
it is my contention that Mutambara,
however learned or intelligent, may be
soiled by the political remnants and
stumps in that faction. In the end he,
like Jonathan Moyo, could emerge the
greatest loser. After the fateful
October 12 2005 split, the MDC factions
espoused different ideologies,
meanings and political
promises.
The Gibson Sibanda-led faction is reported to cherish
dialogue and a
non-confrontational approach to engaging dictatorship. On the
other hand,
Morgan Tsvangirai's faction believes in a systematic and mass
engagement of
the regime, including mass defiance and protest
actions.
It is another thing whether both factions have the capacity
to launch a
serious challenge against the dictatorship or succeed in
bringing about the
much-needed socio-economic relief using their
strategies.
Another realistic perspective of Zimbabwe's reform could
be a reformed Zanu
PF that implements all that the people are asking
for.
Mutambara's ascendancy to the MDC presidency would bring with it
high
expectations to those who know or have interacted with him. In 1989, at
the
University of Zimbabwe, and as members of the Shadreck Ghutto's informal
socialist school, the Mutambara-led union challenged several government
positions, including its silence on corruption, the need to notify the
police of a planned meeting, and the one-party state agenda among other
issues.
The famous statement of October 2 1989 that made
Mutambara, Gwisai and
others famous did not only incite massive
demonstrations, but invited the
terror of the government. The statement
read:
"They (the riot police) harassed and terrorised students
indiscriminately
throughout the campus, randomly tear-gassing halls of
residence, wantonly
clobbering and brutalising students and threatening to
use gunfire when
necessary . . . Comrades, this is state terrorism at its
worst!
"Yes, we did not apply for permission and we will never apply
for permission
from anyone in this country to hold a seminar at this
university . . . To
them, the ruling dogs of imperialism, academic freedom
involves the narrow
acquisition of knowledge, domination of knowledge and
who should be taught
by whom . . .
"It is a government which
displays brute neo-fascism only comparable to that
of (apartheid) South
Africa before its own unarmed defenceless students.
It's our strong
submission that this institution of government has thus been
rendered
completely disreputable and hence the incumbents have completely
lost
legitimacy.
"Who in this government can have the audacity and
credibility to criticise
the De-Klerk regime in South Africa? Or are we even
worse than De Klerk? Ian
Smith never banned political seminars at this
university . . .
"That one fought for this country does not justify
them to loot, plunder and
wreck the economy of Zimbabwe let alone stifle
people's democratic rights .
. . You can't push a cat into a corner - after
all we are not cats but
tigers! Defeat is not our agenda!"
The
statement angered the Education minister who branded Mutambara and his
colleagues "hooligans, drunkards and megalomaniacs . . . anti-patriotic and
anti-nationalistic in nature".
Some students were arrested and
detained on allegations of being a threat to
the government and the people
of Zimbabwe because they had "connived with
foreign politicians to tarnish
the image of the country". The detention was,
however, set aside by the High
Court.
On October 5 of the same year, Morgan Tsvangirai, then the
secretary-general
of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, issued a
solidarity statement
rebuking "the authorities responsible (who) have
developed so much
uncertainty in themselves that they cannot even show
tolerance and
rationality in dealing with our own children". Tsvangirai was
arrested and
detained for six weeks for this solidarity.
It is
from this history that we draw our assertion that, while we celebrate
Mutambara's entry into full-time politics, his past may haunt his
future.
Firstly, the statement of October 2 1989 remains true today
and the first
question is: will Mutambara remain so confrontational and
militant in his
political approach to Zanu PF? Any deviation from this
mass-based political
approach, which does appear to be the idea of the
pro-senate MDC faction,
might soil his revolutionary
history.
Secondly, Mutambara might find it challenging to work with
people whose past
was at variance with the principles he espoused. A senior
official of the
pro-senate group was a senior legal officer of the
University of Zimbabwe
who contributed immensely to the suspension of other
student leaders like
Brian Kagoro and Tendai Biti, among many who championed
the same cause as
that of Mutambara.
Thirdly, Mutambara, though
he has every right and freedom to join and
associate with any person of his
choice, must not forget that political
power comes from the people. It is
the same Tsvangirai who as
unsophisticated as he was in 1989 who came to
Mutambara's rescue and was
incarcerated for that.
While not
suggesting that Mutambara must pay back Tsvangirai by siding with
him, any
moves towards negotiating with Zanu PF will quickly discredit him
so much
that he will go to the political abyss like Moyo, whose rich
political past
was soiled by his fellowship with the ruling party.
Most of the above
scenarios, even if realistic, pose lesser damages to
Mutambara's political
career. His greatest fall could come when he follows
his party's policy of
engagement with Zanu PF. Such an engagement might lead
to a government of
national unity, and under such an arrangement, history
will take its
toll.
Zanu PF, being the stronger party in the talks, will want to
maintain a
powerful position in the new power-sharing
structure.
In conclusion, like the scholars of old, we leave it to
time. What we can
firmly assert though is that the people of Zimbabwe are
not looking for
oratory or high-class people but a person that would resolve
the current
socio-economic crisis. That is why, as in the Christian Bible,
Lord Jesus
was born of unknown parents and in a cattle kraal.
The
saviour's coming may not necessarily be high-sounding or wealthy. But
they
who stand with the people and for the people may get the people's
assent to
the throne of power. We wait to see the tiger in Mutambara.
* Zimunya
is a Harare-based socio-economic researcher..
Zim Independent
Dumisani Ndlela
WHEN the country experienced a 500 percentage
points decline in inflation
from an all-time high of 623% in January 2004 to
124% in March 2005, even
the most hardened pessimists believed Zimbabwe was
out of the inflation
abyss.
But how wrong they were.=
Since
2005, inflation has soared unabated, coming close to the all-time high
of
2004, after reaching 613,2% year-on-year for January.
To many observers
of monetary developments, the problem was simply one of
imprudent fiscal
policy, and persistent nagging of the central bank by a
government not used
to austerity.
But some monetary analysts say the central bank has been an
accomplice in
stoking inflationary fires and burning the economy down by
accepting
government directives to print money.
Reserve Bank of
Zimbabwe governor, Gideon Gono, last week made a rare
admission that the
central bank had printed a whopping $21 trillion to
purchase United States
dollars for repayment of IMF arrears to stave off the
imminent expulsion of
the country's membership to the Bretton Woods
institution.
This is
besides cash printed to raise money for grain and fuel imports, as
well as
for other quasi-fiscal operations by the RBZ.
The government last year
borrowed heavily from the central bank mainly for
grain imports against the
backdrop of drought as well as for fuel imports,
implying that cash from the
central bank was used again to buy foreign
currency.
Money printing
stokes money supply growth which provides impetus to soaring
inflation.
Money supply expanded from 177,6% in January 2005 to
411,5% in November of
the same year, according to latest figures released by
the central bank.
There are fears among economic players that the money
supply growth figures
might be understated, but a number of factors might
contribute to this.
Money supply is the generation of new money - in
other words, an addition to
stock of money already in
circulation.
While the major reason for such growth in Zimbabwe has been
credit to the
government, banking institutions have become major
contributors to
government debt through statutory reserve requirements,
which stood at 60%
of deposits in 2005 but were reviewed downwards to 45% in
October.
This large chunk of money from banking institutions sits at the
Reserve Bank
earning no interest, and has largely been lent to the
government to meet its
expenses. This quasi-fiscal operation has been
condemned by the IMF.
Giving reasons for the expansion in money supply,
Gono said: "The
collectivity of Zimbabweans must realise that this high
growth in money
supply was occasioned by printing of $21 trillion to buy
foreign currency to
pay the IMF."
Independent economic consultant,
John Robertson says: "These are political
decisions with (negative) economic
consequences. The people are paying the
price; it's a big price to
pay."
While it has become clear to everyone that large-scale money
printing would
lead to high inflation, the threat of such an outcome is
still not real to
the government.
President Robert Mugabe this week
pledged to print more money, arguing that
the government could not watch
while people starve.
This is not a sound economic argument, as the
president himself admits that
Zimbabwe's economic woes no longer require
text book solutions.
But printing money cannot be a solution to the
current economic crisis.
Large-scale money printing propels high
inflation, which is the equivalent
of a drastic loss of the purchasing power
of money.
Robertson says inflation has been "the main consequence" of the
government's
money printing venture, and people's savings over the years are
eroded and
become valueless.
"Hard work is destroyed and damages the
country's ability to invest," said
Robertson.
In other words, the
very same people the government insists it is trying to
save through money
printing are picking up the cost of that decision through
skyrocketing costs
for basics and even non-essential commodities.
The inflationary cycle has
made it unattractive to hold the local currency
when costs of goods and
services go up almost everyday. What this means is
that rather than saving,
people are now making sure they spend their little
incomes as fast as they
can, on goods.
The population, in order to avoid the inflationary effect,
flees the
domestic currency as a store of value, and instead shifts their
wealth into
hard currency and durable goods.
This explains why the
parallel foreign currency market has continued to
thrive, despite the RBZ's
efforts to destroy it.
The problem is compounded by the fact that there
are serious shortages in
the economy. Scarcity, by nature, generates
inflation, and this adds the
impetus to a problem the government is already
exacerbating through money
printing.
Fuel is in very short supply, as
is maize-meal, the country's staple food,
as well as foreign currency, sugar
and cooking oil.
A power shortage has also become another spot of bother,
with intermitent
blackouts now a common feature in the country.
All
this creates opportunities for arbitrage or outright corruption in the
trade
of scarce commodities, especially in cases where middlemen are
involved, or
where ruling party and government heavyweights are entitled
access and have
to resell later to the general public.
This has further fuelled inflation
in the economy, with the general public
bearing the brunt.
But the
inflation risk emanating from skewed economic policies has not only
affected
individuals; it has cut across the broad spectrum of the economy -
industrial and commercial operations are mourning.
Robertson points
out a particular risk likely to be suffered by the
financial sector. When
inflation accelerates, Robertson says, it leads to
poorly performing
financial assets. Interest rates have not moved up as much
as inflation has
done, Roberton says, arguing that this poses a serious
threat to the
well-being of investments.
Noticeably, what the situation in Zimbabwe has
done is to move institutional
and private money parked in bonds and deposits
into equities and real
estate.
The stock exchange and real estate
have performed considerably well under
the circumstances, but Robertson
worries about the sustainability of bullish
sentiment on the stock market
when companies are haemorhaging from fuel
shortages, power cuts and foreign
currency shortages.
Analysts say nothing else except austerity measures
will rescue Zimbabwe
from the inflationary abyss. Only tighter monetary and
fiscal policies will
reduce inflation expectations and reinstall confidence
in the local
currency.
Zim Independent
By Eric Bloch
FOR
more than a century, agriculture has been the foundation and the
mainstay of
the Zimbabwe economy. By 1997, when the economy was at its most
optimum in
over 30 years, agriculture constituted more than 18% of Gross
Domestic
Product (GDP), was the source of almost a quarter of the country's
foreign
exchange earnings, and accounted for about 23% of total formal
employment.
For more than 15% of Zimbabwe's population, agriculture was the
source of
their livelihoods and well-being.
Regrettably, those were the
circumstances of yesteryear, but are certainly
not those of the present day.
Over the last eight years agriculture has been
decimated, most of its
contribution to the economy wiped out, and not only
has that had devastating
repercussions upon farmers, farm workers, and their
families, but has had
disastrous consequences for the economy as a whole. In
those eight years,
more than 4 000 farmers and their families have been
evicted from their
homes, more than 300 000 farm workers have become
unemployed, and with their
families and other dependants have become more
than three million additional
persons who are struggling to survive below
the poverty datum line and are
suffering great malnutrition,
under-nourishment and allied
ill-health.
Foreign currency earnings have fallen sharply, with
exportable tobacco
production having fallen from 237 million kg in 2001 to
an anticipated less
than 50 million kg in 2006 (and much of that being of
considerably lesser
quality). So too have exports of beef, citrus, tea,
coffee and many other
agricultural commodities declined, gravely worsening
the availability of the
critical foreign exchange necessary to keep the
wheels of the economy
turning, and required to address the needs of the
populace.
According to the 2003 Utete Land Report, Zimbabwe's total land
area is 39, 6
million hectares of which 33,3 million hectares (84%) are
reserved for
agriculture. Of that agricultural land, almost half (16,4
million hectares)
constitute communal lands, and the remainder is supposedly
for commercial
farming (16,9 million hectares), inclusive of newly-settled
A1 and A2
farmers. Regrettably, latest available estimates indicate that
cultivated
commercial farm lands currently approximate a niggardly 850 000
hectares
only, with the remaining more than 16 million hectares lying
fallow.
Very clearly, Zimbabwe's economy has lost its backbone, being
agriculture.
Instead of feeding itself and the region, Zimbabwe must now
import, year
after year, the greater portion of its food needs, with massive
consequential inflationary impacts, and necessitating diversion of very
scarce foreign currency.
The near total collapse of agriculture has
had vast negative effects upon
all other sectors of the economy, with
diminished demand of that sector of
goods and services provided by the other
economic sectors, massively reduced
consumer spending power,
non-availability of foreign currency, and much
else.
In a supplement
to the fourth quarter 2005 Monetary Policy Review Statement,
the governor of
the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Gideon Gono identified that
over and above
ensuring an adequacy of funding for the agriculture sector,
nine other
policies must be ensured to boost production. He stated these to
be:
* Halting further illegal land invasions;
* Respecting
private property rights;
* Stringent enforcement of the law without fear
or favour;
* Comprehensive development of the country's irrigation
capacity;
* An efficient agricultural pricing system that fully takes
into account
production costs;
* Continued government support to
farmers, especially in terms of access to
finance;
* Full utilisation
of every inch of allocated land;
* Significant recapitalisation of Agri
Bank to allow for the provision of
medium to long- term agricultural
financing; and
* Establishment and consolidation of well- structured
agricultural support
institutions, as well as the unification of farmers'
representative bodies.
Unfortunately, much of Gono's prescription of
agricultural recovery has
fallen upon the deaf ears of the very persons who
most needed to listen,
including the Minister of Agriculture and Rural
Development, Joseph Made,
Minister of State for National Security, Didymus
Mutasa, Minister of State
for Land and Resettlement Programmes, Flora Bhuka,
and Minister of Home
Affairs, Kembo Mohadi. Had they listened to, and
heeded, Gono's words, they
would have ensured that illegal farm invasions
ceased forthwith, but they
continue to occur.
Mohadi should ensure
that the Zimbabwe Republic Police enforce law and
order, instead of which
farm invasions continue unhindered, and private
property of white commercial
farmers continues to be vandalised and
misappropriated.
If government
genuinely wishes for recovery of the agricultural sector, and
thereby the
recovery of the economy as a whole, it needs to face up to some
unpalatable
facts. It needs to acknowledge that its land reform programmes
have been a
dismal failure, instead of its specious recurrent declarations,
ad nauseum,
of the great success of land reform. It needs to reform its land
reform!
If there is a real desire on the part of government to bring
about a
positive transformation of agriculture, government will strive to
implement
that which was agreed at the 1998 Harare Donor Conference, and
again agreed
at Abuja in 2001 instead of spuriously justifying its reneging
of those
agreements by unfounded allegations of contractual breach by
Britain and its
allied states in the European Union.
To do so, it
must enable any, be they black or white, Ndebele, Shona or
other tribe, male
or female, to access on merit a farm, not exceeding a
specified
size.
To that end, any whose farms have been expropriated should be
entitled to
have one farm, within size constraints, returned to them. Any
not wishing to
resume farming should receive fair compensation, timeously,
for the land and
the improvements thereon, and for all moveables, inclusive
of those as have
been vandalised, destroyed or stolen. (Such compensation
would, in terms of
the Harare and Abuja agreements, be partially funded by
the international
community.)
All land acquired by the state should
be promptly resettled, but not to
those whose qualifications are nepotistic.
New settlers should, without
exception, be those who are possessed of, or
have access to, all necessary
skills and resources to work the lands to best
advantage, and not as only
"weekend get-away destinations", away from the
hustle and bustle of urban
life.
And, most critically, all who are
availed of farm lands, must be vested with
real and negotiable tenure,
either in the form of title deeds, or 99-year,
assignable leases. Without
effective ownership, there can be little
motivation to develop and enhance
the lands, and there is no collateral to
support essential operating
borrowings. For five years government has talked
of issuing 99-year leases
but, to date, all that has sped forth from
government on vesting of any farm
tenure has been talk, but no action.
Zim Independent
Muckraker
President
Mugabe this week remained as vague as ever about his succession
plan and his
departure from office. There wasn't much of national importance
to be
gleaned from his rambling Reflections at 82 interview on Newsnet. To
prompt
his spineless ministers to start making their own plans and get out
of his
shadow, he will need to clearly state that he is stepping down in
2008. He
has been vague on that point. Why does one who is so fluent on all
other
issues want us to have to guess at what he is trying to say about
quitting
office?
The second point about succession derives from the vagueness
referred to
above. Mugabe said when the time came Zanu PF should be able to
find a
replacement. Like he said last time around, he talked about
campaigning
having to be done openly instead of "clandestine
manoeuvres".
"There is time to campaign," he said, "but campaign at the
right time and
not become divisive and over-ambitious, with secret meetings
taking place
and denouncing and denigrating others and so on." In other
words, campaign
my way and for whom I say.
The clearest he came to
saying what this entailed was when he said the
leadership is elected at
congress. But that can only work if people feel
that there are equal chances
for all and that the rules are not arbitrarily
changed to suit the whims of
those at the top. It is difficult to foster
openness in an organisation that
is not democratic. Moreover, Mugabe himself
is squandering a good chance to
foster a culture of smooth transition. He
obviously is failing to build that
legacy in the party at a time when he is
still able to influence events. We
should not be surprised when Zanu PF
disintegrates with his
departure.
There was Dr Tafataona Mahoso rambling on again about how
journalism is such
a bad profession just because during his long sojourn in
the US he read that
CIA agents often operated as journalists and vice versa.
Writing in his
Sunday Mail column this week, his conclusion was that
journalists are being
used by "imperialist powers" in their war on
terror.
Mahoso has also reached the enlightened conclusion that the
Mahommed
cartoons, first published in Denmark, were a deliberate imperialist
plot "to
frame" the Muslim world.
In other words to him there is
nothing called free flow of information or
freedom of expression and
conscience. Everything must be seen through his
jaundiced eye as he
masquerades as a licensing agent and a moral Father
Superior at the Media
and Information Commission.
In his rage on behalf of similarly intolerant
brothers in the Middle East,
Mahoso, who until recently was a media lecturer
at the Harare Poly, is now
happy to denounce journalism as "a pretentious
profession". Why then is the
good Dr making a living out of such a
profession? We would not want to
remind him of how he has since shed his
socialist pretensions and embraced
capitalist symbols like moving around in
a chauffeur-driven 4x4 in the city
centre.
Are these not the fruits
of a pretentious profession Doctor? Still we will
call your bluff and say
show us one so-called real profession and we will
show you a thousand rotten
apples!
Ranga Mataire, formerly Lovemore, says he has had three
interviews with
President Mugabe since becoming a journalist. In these
encounters he has
discovered that the president is a "principled and
unquestionably patriotic"
father figure for the youths.
He is
entitled to his views. We were however touched by the fawning
confession
about how the guy sees himself. Mataire says he was very nervous
when he
first met the president, a meeting he says was facilitated by Zanu
PF
information chief Nathan Shamuyarira. "It's not so common for a simpleton
like me to be afforded such an opportunity," he remarked.
It's not
every day that you encounter this level of honesty. Unfortunately
the nation
won't get any wiser from interviews conducted by simpletons
either.
Mahoso has been complaining about the "neo-liberal"
opposition in Zimbabwe
poking fun at Zimbabwe's increasing trade with the
Far East. He referred to
Malaysia as among those Zimbabwe was now doing
business with. The centre of
gravity in the global capitalist system was
shifting eastwards, he claimed,
and Zimbabwe had recognised the shift as a
strategic moment for
geo-political and economic reorientation.
On
Friday the Herald quoted the new Malaysian ambassador, Cheah Choong Kit,
as
remarking that trade between the two countries remained flat. President
Mugabe appeared to agree pointing out that planned beef exports to Malaysia
had not taken off.
In other words, despite Mugabe's numerous visits
to Malaysia, trade between
the two countries has not grown in any
significant way. We all recall the
fate of YTL's proposed investment at
Hwange. It would be useful to quantify
the sum total of Malaysian investment
in Zimbabwe since the "Look East"
policy was launched.
Mahoso
evidently doesn't have the figures although that doesn't stop him
making
dramatic claims!
In this connection, Transport minister Christopher
Mushohwe was asked by the
Sunday Mail what measures he was taking to address
Reserve Bank complaints
that Air Zimbabwe was losing money hand over fist on
its routes to the Far
East.
His answer was less than inspiring. "If
such suggestions are made," he said,
"let them be brought to us and if they
are proved correct Air Zimbabwe will
take corrective
measures."
Mushohwe likes to position himself as the architect of Air
Zimbabwe's "Look
East" thrust. But he needs evidence to be brought to him by
the Reserve Bank
before he will accept that the routes he inspired are not
paying.
Here we can see that Zimbabwe's bid to keep abreast of what
Mahoso calls
geo-strategic reorientation has badly backfired. Instead of the
profitable
airline it used to be, AirZim is now a threadbare tool of
politicians
pursuing investments that produce no dividends. Anybody watching
Malaysian
investment trends will know where much of it has gone: South
Africa, a
country that works. And China's interest in the rest of Africa far
exceeds
its dabbling in Zimbabwe.
We liked remarks by Masvingo
governor Willard Chiwewe condemning fresh farm
invasions in the province. He
called on law enforcement authorities to act
against people who continue to
act illegally in occupying new farms.
"We do not know where the missing
link is with regards to continued reports
of fresh occupations of farms,"
Chiwewe said.
Can anybody assist him?
Somebody else needing help
is Attorney-General Sobusa Gula-Ndebele. He has
called on the courts to
impose stricter bail conditions to avoid accused
persons skipping the
country. This comes in the wake of Benjamin Paradza's
disappearance.
Let's hope the courts ignore calls from the state to
deny individuals their
right to liberty, whatever the charges, or to tighten
bail conditions. The
state repeatedly loses cases because the charges are
politically-driven or
simply poorly framed. Very often the state simply
doesn't have a case.
The recent lifting of remand conditions against
Mathias Ndlovu in the Cabs
fraud case is an example of how not to proceed.
Chief law officer Joseph
Jagada admitted the state was not sure who the
complainant was!
It cannot in the circumstances expect the courts to take
a tougher view.
And references to Paradza and businessmen skipping the
country should
include the obvious fact that most left because they did not
see any chance
of a fair trial in today's Zimbabwe. The Attorney-General's
office appears
not to have woken up to that salient
point.
Gula-Ndebele, opposing a court application by the Law Society,
said there
was no reason for anyone to become a fugitive from justice if
they were
innocent.
Indeed. But supposing there is no
justice?
Justice Chinembiri Bhunu, a senior High Court judge, was quoted
last week as
saying politicians should not relocate political battles to the
courts, but
should go to the people to canvass their support in order to win
or retain
political office.
"Let me warn those who want to use the
courts to gain political power that
it is not the duty of the courts to
spring anyone into power or to maintain
anyone in power," Bhunu said last
Monday at the opening of the High Court
circuit in Masvingo.
"Those
wishing to do so should go to the people to garner support because it
is the
people who can give them such power and not the courts."
Doesn't this beg
the obvious question: What is an aggrieved party supposed
to do if the state
denies them an opportunity to test the people's will? If
it manipulates the
voters' roll for instance or uses coercion as an
electoral weapon? What if
the ruling party abuses its position in government
to produce a flawed
election result? Isn't it then the duty of the courts to
rule on the
freeness and fairness of the poll? Isn't that their
constitutional
obligation?
What we are beginning to see in a number of recent
pronouncements is a
judiciary that appears unwilling to fulfill its
constitutionally-mandated
function on the grounds that the issues before it
are political. As if
anything is not nowadays!
Gula-Ndebele for
instance believes that locking somebody up without bail for
21 days was
"reasonably justifiable in a democratic society". But the
judiciary appears
reluctant to admit that this constitutes a serious
usurpation of its
authority. Why is it so silent on this fundamental threat
to liberty when
judges have been happy to express views on a range of other
matters?
Perhaps the most misleading of Gula-Ndebele's claims in
opposing the LSZ
application was that some countries hold suspects for much
longer than 21
days. He is absolutely right: China, Cuba, North Korea,
Belarus, Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Vietnam, and Sudan all have provision for
lengthy detention without
trial. So did South Africa before 1994. But those
are not useful benchmarks.
As for his suggestion that the state was the
best judge of what constituted
national interests, we can see from Zanu PF's
trail of misrule that this is
a claim that needs serious interrogation, as
the academics would say.
Somebody else needing serious interrogation is
the Russian ambassador to
Harare, Oleg Scherbak. He was quoted in the Herald
as denouncing sanctions
against Zimbabwe saying "ongoing developments in
your country are purely an
internal issue".
He should be asked the
same question as judges seeking to deny citizens
justice in the courts. What
do people do to resolve their problems if the
government denies them freedom
of expression or electoral fairplay? Why is
Russia intent upon siding with
the forces of repression against those
seeking a democratic order?
"
Russia intends to continue to energetically promote finding comprehensive
solutions to problems facing the continent," the ambassador assured us. But
this will remain cheap talk so long as Russia does nothing to promote
democracy or human rights. What assistance has Russia provided to civil
society in Africa as distinct from selling arms to repressive regimes?
Scherbak should provide some answers. The interview was headed " Russia: A
steadfast friend of Africa". In fact Russia is a friend of African
governments, not the people. Let's not forget Sekesai Makwavarara's visit to
Moscow.
Will all those who took President Mugabe's promotion of
certain women to
high office as an indication of enlightened policy please
note the views of
one of his speech-writers.
Nathaniel Manheru last
Saturday took exception to comments by Mavis Makuni
in the Financial Gazette
on Thabo Mbeki's role in the Zimbabwe crisis. He
asked whether her comments
were not a case of "PMT senselessness".
So much for gender sensitivity!
And the Independent's Dumisani Muleya got it
in the neck for examining the
diplomacy around Zanu PF/MDC talks in 2004.
Again, the very mention of the
word "Mbeki" had Manheru frothing at the
mouth.
We should not be
surprised. The President's Office was hotly denying the
existence of the
South African-promoted talks - first reported in the
Independent and
culminating in a constitutional draft signed by both
negotiators - right up
until the point this month when Mbeki announced he
had a copy of the draft.
Now the Independent has been proved right and
Manheru wrong. But he is
proving a sore loser!
What has Zambia's Foreign Affairs minister been
smoking? He told his
Zimbabwean hosts recently that he had driven 50km
outside Harare and was
"exceedingly impressed by what I saw. People are
really serious about
farming contrary to press reports that the land is not
being utilised
effectively".
As anybody else driving 50km outside
Harare, in any direction, would find it
very difficult to find any evidence
whatsoever of agricultural activity, we
can only assume the Zambian minister
was high on political solidarity -
which as we know can be somewhat
mind-altering.
Put together with the recent expulsion of Zimbabwean
opposition members for
simply talking to each other in Livingstone, we
should make sure the world
knows that Zambia is not a safe place to hold a
conversation and that its
ministers, in addition to deluding themselves, are
inclined to delude others
as well!
Zim Independent
Comment
LET us spare
a thought for the sad state of our manufacturing sector. A KM
Financial
Services/CZI survey for 2004-5 released yesterday is yet another
illustration of unmitigated failure in what was once one of Africa's most
developed industrial sectors. More distressing though is the huge slump in
business confidence and with it prospects of a quick economic
regeneration.
The survey says in the period under review, 54,5% of
responding companies
operated at 50% or more of capacity. About 40,5%
reported operating at
between 50% and 74% of full capacity. Only 13%
reported operating at 75% and
above of full capacity.
It must be
noted that the capacities reported were on an eight-hour-day,
five-day-week
basis. Under normal circumstances the manufacturing sector
operates three
eight-hour shifts. The statistics from the survey can safely
be divided by
three to give a more realistic capacity utilisation rating.
The country's
installed capacity is therefore being immensely underutilised
and this is
manifest in the quality of products available and the myriad
products that
have disappeared from shop shelves. Reduced capacity
utilisation has seen a
slump in employment. The manufacturing sector can
only absorb 42% of optimum
number of industrial workers. The knock-on effect
of workers' reduced
disposable income and buying power is haunting
manufacturers whose goods are
staying longer on the shelves.
Zimbabwe , despite its central location in
the Sadc region with 300 million
potential customers, has lost its export
competitiveness, being reduced to
exporting 91% of products to the region
with Zambia taking up 29%. Business
to key trading partner South Africa has
slowed down to 22% of exports.
The survey says this is a major indicator
that our manufactured products are
losing competitiveness in the much bigger
world out there. Coupled with
misdirected militancy in foreign policy
direction, Zimbabwe has also lost
key traditional markets in the West where
the country was exporting fresh
produce, meats and meat
products.
Companies that have remained open have to make do with
intermittent water
and electricity cuts. Fuel is expensive and supplies have
remained erratic
for over seven years. There is the high cost of money and
the clear and
present danger posed by hyperinflation, currently at 613% and
headed for 1
000% by year-end.
Rushed fiscal and monetary policy
directives have exacerbated the situation.
Manufacturers have expressed
their disquiet at constant policy shifts,
especially in the foreign currency
retention regime. In the end, the
efficacy of systems put in place cannot be
properly evaluated as changes are
announced sporadically leaving no room for
forward planning.
The decline of the manufacturing sector since 1998 has
been horrifying. That
decline is an economic tragedy, as the country has
lost opportunities for
growth. Zimbabwe is the second most industrialised
country in Comesa, with a
central geographic location that facilitates
access to markets of more than
300 million people. The gains made between
1990 and 1998 when the country
pursued prudent economic policies have been
sacrificed to political
expediency and governmental
mismanagement.
Neighbouring countries, despite their obsequious support
for President
Mugabe, have now taken advantage of Zimbabwe's foolhardiness
to grow their
economies.
The greatest tragedy which precipitated the
fall in industrial production
has been the collapse of agriculture, the
foundation on which all else was
built. By the end of 2003, agricultural
output was, at best, 40% of 1998
production levels.
Observers believe
that the further decline in output has since cut current
production to a
quarter of pre-land reform levels. As agricultural incomes
diminished, so
too did consumer spending on industrial outputs. And as the
demand for those
outputs became less and less, the demand by some industrial
enterprises upon
other industrial enterprises also diminished.
A combination of poor
central bank policies on the cost of money and foreign
currency retention
together with populist policies like price controls and
then inflation, have
all worked to pull down production. These are sure
symptoms of a very sick
economy.
All talk of recovery - expounded in voluminous documentation by
the central
bank in the last 30 months - is treacherous dishonesty. The
reality of our
situation is at manufacturing plants. Even without scientific
studies, a
drive into the heavy industrial areas in Bulawayo and Harare will
show
evidence enough of a ruined economy. Machines have fallen silent,
abandoned
factories are overgrown with grass, roofs have rusted and gates
have been
chained for extended periods. Workers who used to be employed in
these
places are at home and industrialists have taken their business acumen
elsewhere across our borders.
At the CZI congress in Nyanga last
year, business and government promised to
work together under a system akin
to the Business Unity of South Africa
where government, capital and labour
unite for economic development. This
could be a key factor in restoring
business confidence but nobody in
government seems to be listening.