From BBC News, 24 July

Comment from The New York Times, 25 July

The Travails of Zimbabwe

All of southern Africa has an interest in seeing a free and fair election next year in Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe seems prepared to reduce his once hopeful nation to violent ruin in a desperate bid to cling to power. Washington and its friends in the region and beyond need to take steps now that will make possible a level playing field throughout the campaign. Mr. Mugabe, who has been in power for 21 years since he led Zimbabwe to independence from white rule in what had been Rhodesia, will be seeking a fifth term in April 2002. He has allowed violent attacks on the independent press, the courts and white-owned factories and farms. Nearly 50 farmers, farm workers and opposition activists, black and white, have been killed in the past year and a half.

To its credit, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change remains dedicated to constitutional procedures. Its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has called on the outside world to send observers now to begin monitoring the campaign. Western nations and their African friends should find a way to respond to his plea. They should insist on the establishment of an independent electoral commission and on the ability of the independent media to operate unhindered.

Zimbabwe's political turmoil has already exacted a terrible cost. Joblessness approaches 60 percent, inflation is close to 70 percent, and the health care system is collapsing in the face of one of the world's worst AIDS epidemics. Most multilateral aid has already been suspended. Secretary of State Colin Powell, on his trip to Africa in May, set the right tone when he forthrightly called on Mr. Mugabe to "submit to the law and the will of the people" in a free and fair election. There is bipartisan support in Congress for legislation that would condition any resumption of aid on fair elections, restoration of the rule of law, a demonstrated commitment to a lawful land reform program and withdrawal from the war in Congo.

Washington needs to follow through in the coming months, working closely with South Africa and other regional democracies whose own economies and political stability are closely tied to Zimbabwe. The fact that Zimbabwe has journalists who risk bombing and torture, judges who risk beatings and opposition activists who risk jail and murder is evidence of the enormous courage of Zimbabweans who want to rid their country of an obsolete tyranny. They will need the scrutiny of the outside world if they are to stick to their strategy of constitutional change.

Comment from Business Day (SA), 24 July

A Basic Lesson of Democracy

Johannesburg - "We are tired of this violence and what we want now is just to vote and see the terror going away," is the sad cry of one Thomas Nyuke of Bindura, a victim of Zanu PF orchestrated political violence in Mashonaland Central. He was beaten up by a Zanu PF mob last week and suffered serious head injuries. He is recovering at Bindura Hospital. The cry by Nyuke epitomises the lamentations of millions of Zimbabweans who have borne the brunt of Zanu PF's wrath since it lost at least 57 seats to the opposition in last year's parliamentary election. Zimbabweans are being punished for exercising their freedom of expression and supporting a political party of their choice.

The message all around is clear: Zanu PF has not given up violence as a campaign strategy despite losing three parliamentary seats in the high court, all nullified because of its terror tactics prior to and during the election period. What this tells us is that Zanu PF is not prepared to give up power. By engaging in violence Zanu PF is succeeding in alienating many people. The nation has increasingly become restive due to the non-arrival of the proverbial pot of gold which independence promised. It is now common knowledge that a huge number among the more enlightened in the war veterans' camp are disgusted by Zanu PF's co-option of the likes of Joseph Chinotimba and others in its invasion of farms and companies. This has created a serious rift in both the police and the armed forces.

Zanu PF is simply pushing its luck too far by alienating the professional core in the uniformed forces. Recent history is replete with examples where the uniformed forces chose the side of right. Zanu PF needs to learn a very basic lesson of democracy: violence will not win it votes. This should have been the time to learn, but instead it has opted to retreat into guerrilla warfare, thus buttressing the racist slur that democracy does not work in Africa.

From The Sunday Independent (SA), 22 July

Mugabe shores up bureaucracy ahead of polls

Harare - President Robert Mugabe is tightening his grip on key state institutions ahead of presidential elections due in April next year. Mugabe has appointed officials of unquestioned loyalty in the army, the police and the judiciary in the past few months and this week to the state-run Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC), which still enjoys a monopoly over broadcasting. The monopoly of radio especially, which reaches the widest audience in Zimbabwe, gives the ruling Zanu-PF party an enormous head-start in elections. The opposition's activities are rarely covered on either state radio or television. In the past few months, Mugabe has replaced five of the six editors in the state-run Zimbabwe Newspapers (Zimpapers) stable, which publishes both daily and weekly newspapers. The latest victim was Steve Mpofu, the editor of Zimpapers' second-largest daily newspaper, the Chronicle, which is distributed largely in Zimbabwe's second largest city of Bulawayo. He was fired last week without explanation.

Mugabe recently appointed Enoch Kamushinda, a staunch ruling party supporter and successful businessman, to take charge of the board of Zimpapers. Munyaradzi Hwengwere, another Mugabe loyalist, was this week moved from the president's office to take charge of the Zimbabwe Broadcast Corporation's (ZBC) radio and television news department. Hwengwere, 32, was a presidential spokesperson before his appointment to head the newly created Newsnet, a department at the ZBC. He holds a political science degree and postgraduate qualifications in media studies.

His appointment has riled many experienced journalists at the ZBC who felt sidelined by his appointment. Apart from his postgraduate media qualifications, Hwengwere has never worked as a journalist. His appointment was, nonetheless, seen by many analysts as an obvious effort by Mugabe to tighten his grip on the broadcast media ahead of the elections. "Look, we are not talking about professionalism or media experience here. Mugabe can't afford to take chances. That's why he needs someone from within his office to take charge of the news business at the ZBC," said Professor Masipula Sithole of the University of Zimbabwe in Harare.

Five other obvious loyalists were recently appointed to other key positions in the ZBC's sensitive news department. Sithole said Mugabe wanted trusted and malleable officials in strategic positions in the media ahead of the elections. He had lost faith with those axed because they had been in charge of the ZBC when the ruling party nearly lost parliamentary elections to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change last year. "Although all these people have done their best in the past as Mugabe's henchmen, they seem to have not done enough to satisfy him. They are now paying a price for Mugabe's desperation to remain in power," said Lovemore Madhuku, an analyst at the University of Zimbabwe.

Mugabe also stepped up efforts to politicise the army and the police this week. Reports said all non-commissioned war veterans in both the army and the police had been promoted at least one rank. Their salaries had also been doubled. Constantine Chiwenga, an army commander, has been touring army barracks urging soldiers to rally behind Mugabe for next year's elections. He was reported to have promised all soldiers that new jobs in the army would be reserved for their children. Mugabe has also recently appointed seven new judges with strong links to the ruling party to Zimbabwe's high court. Mugabe is expected to confirm the appointment of Godfrey Chidyausiku as chief justice soon. Chidyausiku has been acting chief justice since the dismissal of white Chief Justice Anthony Gubbay in March. He is also expected to appoint another loyalist to the high court to replace Nicholas MacNally, a white judge who retires at the end of this year. But analysts say even these measures will not keep Mugabe in power unless he also addresses the bread-and-butter issues that are becoming critical to his country, which is facing increasing shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency.

The incident was the latest in a violence-wracked campaign for the July 28/29 parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Bindura. Police could not say what sparked the exchange of fire, which began when Tsvangirai and other top opposition leaders arrived in the constituency on Sunday afternoon. About 100 militant young Zanu (PF) supporters attacked the 13-car motorcade with stones, and burned one of the vehicles, the privately owned Daily News reported. The newspaper said five MDC supporters were injured, one of them seriously. Tsvangirai was in Bindura to help MDC candidate Elliot Pfebve campaign for the parliamentary seat, which he lost in elections last year after months of often bloody intimidation. The by-election was called after Bindura's MP, Border Gezi who was also minister for youth, gender and employment creation was killed in April in a car accident.

From The Financial Mail (SA), 20 July

ANC brains slug it out over Zanu and the MDC

Key ANC intellectuals have gone head to head to lobby for different approaches to the crisis in Zimbabwe.

MP Pallo Jordan favours the path of "quiet diplomacy", belittling debates in SA as "much ado about Zimbabwe", while ANC-aligned businessman Moeletsi Mbeki says the situation in SA's northern neighbour poses "the greatest threat to national security our young democracy has yet faced". Mbeki outlines several polar options SA can take: "We could prop up the Zimbabwean economy and ask others to do the same in the hope that Zanu-PF will in the meantime beat the population and the opposition into quiet submission." Or: "We could help the opposition to resist intimidation in the hope that this will persuade Zanu-PF to respect democratic processes and therefore hold free and fair elections and accept their outcome."

The debate, in the latest edition of the ANC journal Umrabulo, is the most public signal of differences within the ruling party on what has become one of its most important foreign affairs challenges. President Thabo Mbeki appears to have been swayed by the tougher, more principled options voiced in his ranks and by the demands of realpolitik. Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was party to a swashbuckling resolution at the Organisation of African Unity summit last week, which gave Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's land policies the green light and failed to object to the manifest rights abuses by the State.

Reports said Mbeki worked hard to scotch the resolution, and got it toned down to an anodyne statement saying it was important for land talks between the UK and its former colony to continue. The President realised the damage the Ministers' resolution would have on the African Union's first road-show at the G8 meeting in Genoa this week.

In complete contrast with ANC establishment views on Zimbabwe, Moeletsi Mbeki writes: "In its misguided drive to stay in power whatever the wishes of the people, Zanu-PF has decided it will stop at nothing." He says the racialising of an economic crisis poses a security threat to SA - the campaign against white landowners was the start of a target-and-neutralise mission against various strata of Zimbabwean society. White farmers, then black farmworkers and the black urban working class have already been singled out as problematic groups. Why not the Ndebele next, "for no other reason other than that they are Ndebele".

He says the only reason the Matabeleland murders of the Eighties did not result in mass migration to SA was apartheid-era border controls. "This is no longer the case. Huge African population movements across SA borders are feasible." This, he argues, is the security threat to the ANC, and perhaps the moral threat too. "The ANC's founding principle is nonracism and opposition to ethnic politics," Moeletsi Mbeki reminds his comrades. Whereas the ANC leadership has sought, on occasion, to paint the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) as johnny-come-latelies, he points out that senior cadres from Zipra (Zanu-PF's military wing) have joined the opposition MDC, and that its leadership is comprised of seasoned trade union leaders.

In the previous edition of Umrabulo, the writer "Denga" (a pen-name once used by Joe Slovo, but which now floats among senior ANC leaders) said the MDC reflected an "impatience born of inexperience in revolutionary struggle" and "has played into the hands of the recidivists: the Rhodies both within Zimbabwe and in influential positions in SA and Britain." But whereas the ANC once refused to meet the MDC, the pace of engagement has increased. ANC sources suggest the party is trying to export the idea of a government of national unity to Zimbabwe. The balance of power in Zimbabwe is delicate. Denga argues that while a "significant section" of Zanu-PF has used its position for enrichment, the party still has a democratic, revolutionary heart, and can be saved.

Jordan reveals in his paper that he has, thus far, led party thinking on Zimbabwe. Treating Mugabe's government as despotic is wrong, he says: "Whatever its faults, the government led by Zanu-PF is a government elected by the majority of Zimbabweans in inclusive, nonracial elections." SA's decision to exercise quiet diplomacy has kept the doors of dialogue open. "As far as we know, not a single land seizure has been halted and not one life saved by the sound and fury emitted by Bush and Blair," says Jordan. "Diplomacy is about shaping and influencing the context in which another government makes its decisions."

From The Zimbabwe Standard, 22 July

$100 000 for presidential voters roll

Most Zimbabweans could fail to access the voters’ roll for next year’s presidential election because of the astronomical fees being charged by government for a copy of the roll. According to the latest Government Gazette, which was released on Friday, those intending to access the roll will have to fork out $100 000 for a copy. "Copies of the printed roll for the presidential voters roll may be obtained from the offices of the registrar-general upon a payment of a fee of a hundred thousand dollars," reads the gazette.

Voters rolls for Harare, Bulawayo and Chitungwiza will cost $20 000, while those for Gweru, Mutare, Kwekwe, Masvingo and Redcliff will each be going for $15 000. Voters rolls for Kadoma, Chegutu, Gwanda, Victoria Falls, Bindura and Kariba will cost $10 000 each. The minister of justice, legal and parliamentary affairs, Patrick Chinamasa, could not be reached for comment yesterday. The MDC, however, condemned government over the high cost of the voters roll. MDC election director, Paul Themba Nyathi, said the high fees were calculated at restricting the voters roll to a few people.

"In a normal democracy, the voters roll is a constitutional entitlement. However, in a flawed democracy like ours, the government goes out of its way to deny the electorate its democratic rights. The amount being charged for the presidential voters roll is designed to restrict access to the voters roll. We wonder why government wants to do this. It shows that there is something wrong with the voters roll. The MDC will make sure the people of Zimbabwe are not denied their democratic rights by finding a way for people to access that voters roll," said Nyathi.

Nyathi said government had not charged for a presidential voters’ roll in the past and was doing so now because of the serious challenge posed by Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC candidate for the presidential election. "Democracy is expensive but the taxpayer has already paid for democracy so why should they be charged for it. You cannot try to cover cost of a democracy by charging the people. They pay for that through the taxes collected by government," said Nyathi.

Over the years, a number of people have failed to vote because of a defective voters rolls. While others fail to find their names on the rolls, some have found their names registered with the wrong constituency or their names misspelt. In fact, the voters roll has been at the centre of Zanu PF’s rigging mechanism. Last week, members of the Zimbabwe Council of Churches, meeting in Victoria Falls, expressed to the registrar-general Tobaiwa Mudede, their concern over the state of the voters roll and the need for a free and fair elections.

From The Financial Mail (SA), 20 July

Finance minister Makoni on the skids

Payback from his policies won't occur until new team takes over

Harare - Harare is thick with rumour and speculation that Finance Minister Simba Makoni is on the way out, though whether he will jump or be pushed is unclear. In the past month, the government-owned Herald and Sunday Mail have missed few opportunities to put the boot into Makoni, criticising his public comments about the overvalued Zimbabwe dollar and slamming his (stalled) plan for an export incentive that would in effect devalue the currency by 54%.

When he took office a year ago in President Robert Mugabe's post-election reshuffle, Makoni, and a handful of other "technocrats", promised a fresh approach to the country's economic crisis. In their 12 months in office, the technocrats have had remarkably little impact. Labour Minister July Moyo and Tourism's Francis Nhema have wisely maintained low profiles. Industry Minister Nkosana Moyo tried his best for eight months before resigning. Agriculture Minister Joseph Made has presided over the increasingly chaotic land resettlement programme, insisting that there will be no food shortage this year. In the past two weeks he has been forced into a humiliating retreat with Makoni appealing to donors for food aid.

There is more to the speculation about Makoni's future than his fall-out with some Zanu-PF heavies over exchange rate policy. On Monday, government announced that inflation had rebounded to a 20-month high of 64% last month. The announcement came on the same day Barclays Bank Zimbabwe cut its prime lending rate to 32% - half the inflation rate. In the parallel market, the Zimbabwe dollar slipped close to Z$200 to the US unit, nearly four times its official value and three times its level when Makoni took office. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe added to the gloom, warning of the dangers of excessive monetary growth, running at over 65%/year.

Nor can Makoni blame others for the monetary policy debacle for which he and RBZ Governor Leonard Tsumba must accept responsibility. The game plan, in Makoni's November budget, was to impose hugely negative real interest rates designed to keep down the cost of government borrowing, while also forcing down civil service wages dramatically. Both strategies remain in place, though how much longer the wage strategy can hold, given inflation, is unclear. At the start of the week, three pay disputes underlined growing pressure from the shopfloor for new and bigger wage hikes.

For as long as he is prepared to ignore the adverse impact of his easy money policy on savings, investment, inflation and the exchange rate, Makoni can probably maintain negative real interest rates. The real payback from this strategy will be felt only next year, by which time a new Finance Minister, central bank Governor and probably a new President will have to try to pick up the pieces. Though his economic strategy is in tatters, Makoni has support from some of the business community, especially those white businessmen who like to see themselves as leaders of the private sector. It is they, unable or unwilling to get their heads around the idea of a government led by Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who are punting a government of national unity and the postponement of elections. But the people demanding chinja (change) are in no mood to be fobbed off by businessmen who, for the most part, have escaped relatively unscathed from Zimbabwe's political and economic crises.