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Information officials at the ruling party's headquarters
yesterday confirmed
that the delegation was made up of provincial youth
leadership going to
learn about youth activities in Libya.
"It's
an ongoing inter-party exchange programme," a Zanu PF information
official
said.
"Youth leadership from all our 10 provinces would learn the
youth activities
in Libya and that would be disseminated to our youths
here."
Libya has compulsory national youth service, including
ideological tutoring.
Press reports on Wednesday said the Zimbabwean
nationals aboard a
Russian-made Ilyushin plane, flown by two Libyan pilots,
were detained for
allegedly overflying Kenyan airspace without authority. The
passengers were
detained at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport for three
days after the
plane was intercepted by Kenya's airforce.
Zanu PF
officials said there was nothing wrong with Zimbabwe sending a
delegation to
Libya to acquire skills on self-reliance and patriotism.
"The Women's
League sent their delegation to explore business opportunities
earlier on and
this is actually the second delegation and there is nothing
wrong with it,"
the official said.
These developments come amid reports that Zanu PF
militias hired to thwart
the Movement for Democratic Change-led mass protests
last week could have
cost the ruling party as much as $60 million in
payments.
The over 2 000 militiamen who camped at the Zanu PF
headquarters building
for the whole of last week are thought to have been
paid $30 000 each on
Saturday after their success in blocking MDC
marches.
Zanu PF secretary for information Nathan Shamuyarira however
denied that his
party paid the youths.
The militias were bused
from Mashonaland Central and East to help the
uniformed forces to stop mass
protests intended at forcing President Mugabe
from office.
From SW Radio Africa, 11 June
Bout connection
A
Russian-made plane carrying 57 Zimbabwean passengers from Harare to Libya
was
forced to land in Nairobi, after illegally flying into Kenyan air space.
The
two Ukrainian pilots initially lied about the cargo of the plane and
said
there were no passengers on board. It later transpired that all 57
passengers
were Zimbabwean males between the ages of 18 and 24, and it is
alleged that
none of them were carrying travel documents. After paying a
fine, the pilots
and the passengers have been allowed to proceed. The story
first came to
light in the Kenyan paper, the East African Standard.
According to our own
research, the plane, has at various times been
registered to Cen Sad, a
company based in Tripoli, Libya and Centrafricain
Air which is connected to
Ukrainian Victor Bout. Media reports have
repeatedly linked Bout with arms
dealing and trade in so called "blood
diamonds". It is unclear who owns the
plane at present.
Zim Independent
Zanu PF/MDC in church-led talks
Vincent Kahiya
AS
relations between the ruling Zanu PF and the Movement for Democratic
Change
(MDC) deteriorated further this week, churches in Zimbabwe have been
hosting
inter-party talks in a bid to bring the two feuding sides back to
the
negotiating table.
The Zimbabwe Independent this week heard that church
leaders under the
auspices of the Heads of Christian Denominations held
meetings last month
with the representatives of the two parties to try to
remove impediments
which have prevented dialogue over the past two
years.
The Zanu PF delegation included the party's secretary for
Information and
Publicity Nathan Shamuyarira, Foreign Affairs senior
secretary Willard
Chiwewe, and an officer from the Office of the President
and Cabinet. The
MDC delegation included the party's top three, president
Morgan Tsvangirai,
vice-president Gibson Sibanda and secretary-general
Welshman Ncube, sources
said.
The sources said the clerical
delegation met the two parties separately on
May 22 and there were plans to
have a second round of talks soon. If this
made progress it would be followed
by a third round where representatives of
the two political parties would
come face to face.
The delegation from the church leaders included
Rev Murombedzi Kuchera, Rev
Sebastian Bakare, and Zimbabwe Council of
Churches (ZCC) secretary-general
Densen Mafinyane. The Heads of Denominations
group includes the ZCC, the
Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Conference, and the
Evangelical Fellowship of
Zimbabwe.
These are thought to be the
talks President Thabo Mbeki was referring to
when he told parliament in Cape
Town last week that the two sides were
negotiating.
Details of
what transpired at the meetings were not readily available as
church leaders
have tried to keep their encounters as secret as possible.
All sides agreed
not to comment on the negotiations in the press.
Shamuyarira did not
return calls yesterday.
Contacted this week Rev Kuchera said he did
not have "details on the
meetings". Asked if the meetings took place as
described, he repeated that
he had "no details".
The second round
of talks now hangs in the balance after the MDC civil
disobedience last week
and the subsequent arrest of Tsvangirai on fresh
treason charges. Observers
close to the talks see Tsvangirai's arrest as a
bid by hardliners close to
Mugabe to scupper the dialogue before it gets
underway.
"It is
being strangled in its cradle," a source close to the talks said.
"But with
the current stalemate in the balance of political power the talks
are seen as
the only way forward for both sides."
The latest initiative by the
churches in Zimbabwe to mediate in the
political impasse follows attempts by
African leaders Mbeki, Olusegun
Obasanjo, and Bakili Muluzi in May to bring
the two parties to the
negotiating table.
The three heads of state met
the two party leaders separately during a day's
trip to Harare but there has
not been anything to show for their efforts
apart from the church
initiative.
In March Njongonkulu Ndungane, the Anglican Archbishop
ofCape Town, came to
Zimbabwe leading a clerical/civic delegation to try to
tackle the political
logjam. It is not clear if the latest initiative was
inspired by his visit.
But it is understood he had the support of Mbeki's
office where former
church activist Frank Chikane is a key
official.
The archbishop met civil society organisations and church
leaders during the
trip, and he also paid a courtesy call on
Tsvangirai.
Meanwhile, South African Defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota
told MPs in Cape
Town yesterday that the MDC should not walk away from
dialogue.
"I said last week it is not helpful for the MDC to leave the
talks and go on
to the streets and create an atmosphere as if there was
unwillingness to
negotiate a settlement in Zimbabwe," he said.
The
churches in Zimbabwe, the Independent has been told by some of those
involved
in the current talks, played a hitherto undisclosed but pivotal
role in
formulating dialogue between Zanu PF and PF Zapu resulting in the
Unity
Accord of December 1987.
Zim Independent
Illegal fuel dealers prey on desperate
motorists
Blessing Zulu
THE government appears to have tacitly adopted a
"do-nothing" policy in the
fuel sector as the recently announced agreement
with the Libyans is still
far from a done deal, the Zimbabwe Independent has
learnt.
The Independent heard this week that the deal depended largely on
the
government crafting a plan that would enable it to pay off its debt and
then
pay for new supplies.
"That stage has not been reached and
there is still wrangling over the
transfer of assets to the Libyans," a fuel
industry source said this week.
President Robert Mugabe anno-unced
last year that the government would stop
importing fuel for private players.
The government has not announced any
policy since then but insists that the
fuel sector is strategic and has to
be regulated.
On the ground
the government has allowed the black market to flourish with
private dealers
bringing in fuel.
The absence of policy has resulted in a
multiple-tier pricing regime in
which dealers charge according to demand.
There are the gazetted prices
where petrol costs $450 a litre and diesel $200
for fuel sourced from
Noczim.
On the other hand, there is fuel
from dealers who set their own prices. This
can be as much as US 60c a litre
or its equivalent. There is also a third
tier on the black market where fuel
sourced from garages at the gazetted
price is re-sold in containers of
various sizes at between $2 000 and $2 500
a litre.
Industry
sources this week said 70% of Zimbabwe's fleet was running on fuel
sourced at
prices above the gazetted tariff.
The sources said the government was
expected to make a policy decision next
week to normalise the situation. They
said the three months of chaos in the
industry worked well for the
government.
"Trade on the black market has conditioned motorists to
buying expensive
fuel," said a fuel marketer.
"If the government
increases the price now to say $1 000 a litre, it will
not hurt the motorist
much since he has been buying the fuel at well over
that price," he
said.
He said the government was aware of the policy error it made in
March when
it increased the price of fuel without addressing the supply
side.
"The government will only make a price adjustment after it has
put in place
deals that will bring in meaningful volumes. It is foolish to
increase the
price of a commodity that is not available," he
said.
However, police this week maintained that selling fuel above
the gazetted
price was still illegal.
Zim Independent
Deported Libyan 'spy' expected back in Zim
Charlene
Ambali
FORMER Libyan diplomat Yousef Murgham, who was feared dead after
his
deportation from Zimbabwe last year, is alive and well, his lawyer
Jonathan
Samkange said this week.
Last week the High Court confirmed a
provisional order granted last year
which ruled that Murgham's deportation
was illegal and that the government
should repatriate him to Zimbabwe. The
state did not challenge the
provisional order and a confirmation ruling was
made in default last
Wednesday.
Samkange this week said Murgham
was currently in Libya and would be heading
back to
Zimbabwe.
"Murgham is in Libya and would be coming back," said Samkange.
He said the Department of Immigration was agreeable to
Murgham's return to
Zimbabwe.
At the beginning of the year his
family, which is still in Zimbabwe, said it
had lost touch with him since his
deportation and feared him to be dead.
The Department of Immigration
in August is alleged to have breached the law
by deporting him to Egypt
instead of handing him over to officials in Libya.
Murgham was
deported after the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO)
declared that he
was a security threat to Zimbabwe. The CIO, reports said,
accused Murgham of
working with British intelligence and the Movement for
Democratic Change and
alleged that he was thwarting government efforts to
procure fuel from
Libya.
In his defence against the deportation, Murgham wrote a letter
on April 16,
2002 to President Mugabe claiming that he had helped the ruling
party to
campaign in the 1990 presidential election. He said he had arranged
for a
meeting between Mugabe and Nathan Shamuyarira, Zanu PF's secretary
for
information, and a Libyan official, Mussa Kosa. The meeting resulted
in
Libya contributing US$100 000 towards Zanu PF's presidential
election
campaign in 1990.
Murgham came to work in Zimbabwe as a
counsellor at the Libyan embassy. He
resigned in 1993 but remained in the
country.
Zim Independent
Zanu PF divided over Chigovera successor
Mthulisi
Mathuthu
THE search for another Attorney-General has already begun with
senior
members of the Zanu PF politburo divided over who to promote to fill
the
post after Andrew Chigovera resigned two months ago.
Zanu PF
divided over Chigovera successor
Individuals in President Mugabe's inner
circle are reportedly unhappy with
the acting AG, Bharat Patel's handling of
the on-going treason trial of MDC
leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the party's
secretary-general, Welshman Ncube, and
secretary for agriculture, Renson
Gasela who are facing charges of plotting
to assassinate
Mugabe.
But others understand the need for professionals to be in
charge if the
growing catalogue of state setbacks are to be
reversed.
Well-placed sources this week said Justice minister Patrick
Chinamasa
favours Minister of State Enterprises and Parastatals, Paul
Mangwana, who is
also his ex-deputy.
Others reportedly favour Johannes Tomana.
Tomana is a partner in Muzangaza, Mandaza &
Tomana law firm, who are
Information minister Jonathan Moyo's personal
lawyers, something which could
load the dice against him.
Denying
links to the race, Tomana said he would put his money on Patel to
land the
job.
"The hunting ground is obviously at the AG's office and Patel
will most
likely land the job no matter what happens."
Other
parties involved on the sidelines are Zanu PF secretary for land
and
resettlement Enos Chikowore and Speaker of parliament Emmerson
Mnangagwa.
Chikowore is reportedly at loggerheads with Mangwana with
whom he has
clashed over administrative and land issues in Kadoma East where
the latter
is MP.
As the secretary for land reform in the
politburo, Chikowore has reportedly
teamed up with Mnangagwa to convince
Mugabe that Mangwana will not be
forcible enough to represent the state in
land cases lined up in the courts.
Chikowore is thought to see
Mangwana, who is also the secretary for
administration in Mashonaland West,
as an unreliable ally in the AG's post.
Moreover there are fears that
Zanu PF will find it difficult to regain the
peri-urban Kadoma East seat in
the event of Mangwana resigning to take the
post of top government
lawyer.
While Chikowore may be distrustful of Mangwana, Mnangagwa on
the other hand
reportedly sees the exit of his old friend and school mate
Chigovera as the
work of his predecessor as AG, Chinamasa.
Reports
have suggested Chigovera was forced out after criticism from
Chinamasa that
he was insufficiently robust in his prosecutions, but this
has not been
confirmed and neither of the two have commented on the
circumstances
surrounding Chigovera's departure.
According to sources, Mnangagwa
and Chikowore would rather have Patel stay
on as the acting AG till the end
of the treason trial, by which time a
candidate could have been
identified.
In an interview on Wednesday, Mangwana said: "When I
retire from politics I
will certainly wish to go back to law but I haven't
heard about the
intention to reassign me now. In any case I enjoy my current
job."
Zim Independent
Zimbabwe to top world inflation index
Conrad
Dube
ZIMBABWE will have the world's highest inflation rate this year,
with
consumer prices expected to rise by over 300% as the economy continues
to
collapse, according to forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU).
The EIU says Angola, another crumbling African economy, would
have inflation
of 115% followed by Iraq whose consumer prices are likely to
rise by 75%.
At the other extreme, Hong Kong's consumer prices are
poised to fall by 2,5%
from 3,70% in 2003, the fastest rate of deflation in
the world, the report
says.
But economist Eric Bloch said real
inflation was currently over 300% and was
likely to reach the 400% level in
the next four months. The official rate in
April was 269%.
Bloch
said: "The official infla-tion rate is wrong as it is calculated
according to
an average person spending basket which applied in 1994 but
spending patterns
have changed very considerably with items such as food
having far higher
proportion of total spending. Food inflation is currently
exceptionally
high."
He said the rate was also wrong as it was calculated on prices
based on
officially controlled prices while people were buying products
either in
different packaging or on the black market where costs were way
above
official prices.
The decline in agricultural output by about
60% in 2003 would lead to a
steady contraction of industry as the decline in
commercial farming feeds
through to the rest of the economy, the Commercial
Farmers Union reports.
Growing foreign currency shortages and fuel at a
time of price controls,
falling purchasing power and triple-digit inflation
would push up production
costs, creating an extremely difficult economic
climate for companies and
mines, the EIU says.
It said as a
result, most companies would scale down their operations and
shed labour, and
real GDP was expected to contract by a further 8,8% in
2003.
The
economic decline would slow in 2004, because many firms would already
have
scaled back their operations substantially, the EIU says.
The EIU said
there could also be some limited recovery in food production,
as the
remaining commercial farmers and small-scale farmers increase
maize
production.
The CFU estimates production throughout the
commercial sector to be reduced
by 70% from what it was in
2002.
Maize production has been reduced to just 80 000 tonnes from
810 000 tonnes
in 2003 while soya beans should go down to 30 000 tonnes from
162 000 in
2000.
The CFU said tobacco was down to just 65 million
kgs from 229 million kgs in
2000.
New farmers are not achieving
their production levels due to lack of
knowledge, skills, inputs, and
finance, it says, so that they do not have
capacity to replace production
levels that previous commercial farmers were
at.
Zim Independent
Airzim in costly airport crash
Blessing Zulu
AIR
Zimbabwe risks paying millions of dollars in compensation to Zambiana,
a
Zambian private airline, for damage to one of its planes caused by an
Airzim
driver, the Zimbabwe Independent has learnt.
Sources at Air
Zimbabwe said a driver using a tug at Harare International
Airport on Sunday
rammed into a stationary Zambiana Beechcraft, which has
been grounded since
then.
"It is an embarrassing thing because Air Zimbabwe has continued
to ignore
basic safety regulations," said the source.
"The person
who was driving the tug was not licensed. The national airline
has continued
to ignore basic safety rules. The national airline has been
told to pay for
damages to the plane and also for loss of revenue and this
will run into
millions of dollars," the source said.
Civil Aviation Authority of
Zim-babwe (CAAZ) director-general Karikoga
Kaseke yesterday confirmed the
accident.
"We received the report and we are already investigating
the matter," Kaseke
said.
"On the issue of compensation, it is
natural that airlines seek compensation
but it depends on the outcome of
investigation," he said.
Acting director for Airports and Business
Development Jerry Ndlovu, said it
was premature to comment on the
investigations.
"I cannot confirm that our driver had no licence. It
is tooearly to
com-ment. The per-son involved has been sus-pended pend-ing
investigations."
This comes as the crisis-ridden national airline has
been forced to reduce
its domestic fares in the face of serious competition
both regionally and
internationally.
A source at Air Zimbabwe said flights had been drastically reduced.
"We used to have three flights
per week to London but they have been reduced
to two and normally very few
passengers board our planes," said the source.
Air Zimbabwe has also
been fighting a losing battle on domestic routes
because of competition from
South African Airways (SAA).
"The management has been forced to
combine the Bulawayo and Victoria Falls
routes owing to stiff competition
from SAA," said the source.
Air Zimbabwe this week announced it had
reduced domestic fares by about 40%
to remain competitive. Passengers have
been declining due to poor and
erratic service.
Air Zimbabwe
management did not respond to questions faxed to them.
Zim Independent
Court still to rule on Aippa challenge
Staff
Writers
THE Supreme Court judgement in the case between the Independent
Journalists
Association of Zimbabwe (Ijaz) and the Minister of State for
Information
Jonathan Moyo has not been released three months after the court
said it
would be ready.
The journalists' lawyer, Sternford Moyo, has
written to the Supreme Court
seeking an explanation for the late delivery of
the judgement.
"In your letter of 13th March 2003, you indicated that
judgement was not
going to be ready for about a month or slightly over," Moyo
wrote to the
Supreme Court registrar, Mrs Mazabane.
"As two and a
half months have lapsed since your letter and the matter has
been awaiting
since November 1, 2002, we are seriously concerned that delay
has gone beyond
limits that we may be able to explain to our clients without
your
assistance.
"It is clearly in the interests of the administration of
justice that we
give to our client some form of explanation for the delay,"
he said.
The Supreme Court has not yet responded to the letter.
Chief Justice Godfrey Chidyausiku, sitting with the full
bench of the
Supreme Court, reserved judgement on the matter last
November.
Aippa was the first significant Act President Mugabe signed
after his
re-election in the 2002 presidential election.
Ijaz, in
the constitutional suit, challenged the powers of the Media and
Information
Commission to compel journalists to register and clauses
relating to the
"abuse of journalistic privilege", which include publishing
what the
government deems to be falsehoods. The Act is over-particular about
the
protection of personal privacy and makes it unnecessarily long
for
journalists to obtain information from public bodies, they
say.
Since November the government has tabled amendments to Aippa to
tighten the
legislation and address issues raised in the constitutional case.
The Bill
went through parliament on Wednesday.
Zim Independent
Compensation demand delays burial
Blessing Zulu
THE
saga of Stephen Tonera, a former employee of opposition Movement
for
Democratic Change (MDC) MP Roy Bennett, has taken another twist with
the
police saying the relatives of the deceased were refusing to bury his
body.
Last week police spokesperson Wayne Bvudzijena said he doubted
the
authenticity of reports that Tonera had been murdered or that his body
was
still in the mortuary.
Tonera was allegedly beaten to death by
suspected state agents after the
March 18/19 MDC-organised mass stayaway. He
died on March 20 on Bennett's
farm in Ruwa.
Bvudzijena this week
confirmed that Tonera's body was still at the mortuary.
"Last time I
checked with Ruwa police station but the case was handled by
Epworth police
station," said Bvudzijena.
"I can confirm that the body is still at
Harare Central Hospital. The
post-mortem was conducted but the relatives are
refusing to bury the body
because they want to be compensated," said
Bvudzijena.
He said asking for compensation violated the laws of the country.
"It is illegal under the law to ask for compensation but
there is nothing we
can do to force them to bury their
relative."
Bennett said the person who committed the crime was well
known but nothing
had been done.
"The person is linked to the
Central Intelligence Organisation and sometimes
is hired to train the
Presidential Guard. This is the reason there has not
been any meaningful
development in this case."
Bennett said it was only after the
publication of the story in the Zimbabwe
Independent last week that the
Criminal Investigation Department showed an
interest and interviewed
witnesses.
Zim Independent
Unknown firms, unknown fate
ZIMBABWE has not yet
decided the fate of six firms it threatened to seize
over accusations they
supported an opposition-led work boycott last week, a
government minister
said yesterday.
Trade and Industry minister Samuel Mumbengegwi said this
week that the
unnamed firms would have their licences revoked and expatriate
work permits
cancelled.
But Mumbengegwi yesterday said in South
Africa that no decision on the
companies or their workers had been
taken.
"When I made a statement in Harare... I indicated... that we
were carrying
out further investigations into these companies," he said on
the sidelines
of an economic summit in South Africa. "Depending on our
findings, we will
take appropriate action."
He declined to name
the businesses concerned or whether they were local
or
foreign-owned.
"We don't know whether they are international or
local companies. It's very
difficult to know if a company is local or
international just by looking at
its name."
Mumbengegwi is in
Durban for the Africa Economic Summit - an invitation-only
gathering of
business and political leaders, where Zimbabwe is firmly off
the
agenda.
Once the bread basket of Africa, Zimbabwe's economy is in
tatters and
political tensions are mounting.
Meanwhile, Finance
Minister Herbert Murerwa said in Durban yesterday
goverment was reviewing key
data to determine whether it would need a
supplementary budget this
year.
Murerwa said although the government's reform programme was
going well,
inflation - already close to 300% - could go higher before prices
levelled
out. "As you know, when you decontrol, the tendency of prices is to
go up
but... if you have the right policy to control inflation, prices
will
stabilise." - Reuter.
Zim Independent
Mugabe runs riot to stay in power
Dumisani
Muleya
LAST week’s nationwide five-day mass action confirmed that
President Robert
Mugabe’s government has effectively lost the battle for the
hearts and minds
of Zimbabweans and is now relying on brute coercion to
maintain its rule.
Despite applying saturation propaganda, ominous
threats and legal blockages
to prevent the protests, Mugabe’s regime still
failed to prevent the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from
organising rolling mass
action which paralysed the country for five
consecutive days.
Analysts say despite Mugabe’s claims that it was a
flop, the mass action
provided the clearest evidence yet that Zimbabwe now
practically has a
condominium leadership: one that commands the forces of
repression and the
other that controls the popular will of the
people.
In his remarks in an interview with the South African
Broadcasting
Corporation last weekend, Mugabe insisted that the mass action
was a flop
because it was designed to oust him from power but
failed.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai said Mugabe’s reaction revealed
panic in
official circles. “It is a matter of public record that Zimbabweans
from all
walks of life overwhelmingly responded to the first stage of our
final phase
of democratic resistance,” he said.
“The call by the MDC
for a national shutdown and mass action represents a
national effort to
challenge an unpopular regime. This was the first dose of
action in the final
phase of the people’s collective push against this
regime under our code, the
Final Push.”
Tsvangirai said it was not surprising that Mugabe’s regime
reacted with
further repression. “True to form, the regime responded with the
predictable
brute force and mass reprisals. But, as expected, this failed to
stop the
people from demonstrating their unflinching support for the MDC,” he
said.
Tsvangirai said while Mugabe pretended to be unfazed by the mass
action, “he
was busy marshalling his forces of repression against the
sovereign will of
the people”.
However, despite the brutalities
inflicted upon them, the people’s spirit of
resistance was not broken, he
said.
“Throughout the world the struggle against tyranny and the
retrieval of
stolen freedom and liberty has never been a single event, but a
traumatic
process of relentless sacrifice and utmost dedication.”
In a
further exhibition of defiance, Tsvangirai warned of further measures
against
Mugabe soon.
“Consequently, the peaceful mass action that we embarked
upon is the
beginning of new multifaceted phase towards a permanent
resolution of the
crisis.
“From now onwards we will embark on rolling
mass action at strategic times
of our choice and without any warning to the
dictatorship. Whereas in the
past our mass action concentrated on stayaways,
we have now entered a
qualitatively different phase where we have added
peaceful marches to
confront the dictator on the streets of every city and
every town.”
Tsvangirai said contrary to Mugabe’s claims that he had
prevailed, “the
dictator is now cornered and reduced to using the hit and run
tactics of a
bandit against defenceless people.
“Mugabe has now been
exposed as a violent and illegitimate dictator with
absolutely no pretence to
any semblance of civil mass support,” he said.
“The current phase of the
people’s mass action had demonstrated to Mugabe
where his power lies. He is
now under no illusion about this. His power now
lies completely in the forces
of repression supervised by a coterie of his
bootlickers.”
While
affecting to regret using teargas to disperse peaceful demonstrators,
Mugabe
justified his repression on the pretext of maintaining law and
order.
Analysts say if Mugabe did prevail over the MDC through the use of
excessive
force, then he only managed to score a Pyrrhic victory — a triumph
which is
as costly as defeat.
But analysts say it was not even that
because the mass action managed to
shut down the whole economy for a week
while Mugabe held sway in the
streets, courts and media where he tenaciously
fought the protests with
batons, whips, teargas, court orders, and
propaganda.
Although government put on a brave face and claimed it was
business as usual
notwithstanding that businesses were closed, it was clear
the economy had
ground to a halt. The only offices which opened consistently
for the whole
week were those of government that produce nothing of
value.
After propaganda had failed to prevent the mass action, Mugabe
unleashed the
police and the army — the building blocks of his power base —
to avoid a
direct challenge to his rule.
It appears government is now
resolved to use the intelligence agency,
police, army, prisons — which at
times operate like concentration camps —
and the ruling party’s militia
squads to defend itself. Critics say this is
largely because people have
withdrawn en masse their consent to Mugabe’s
rule due to his unmitigated
leadership failures. But by deploying the army
to suppress public protests,
he all but confirmed that his legitimacy was
shrinking despite official
claims to the contrary.
Analysts said the protests further showed that
Mugabe — now viewed as a
prisoner of events — desperately lashing out at his
opponents — is clinging
to power by his fingernails.
Political analyst
Brian Raftopoulos said the mass action revealed the ugly
face of an
increasingly brutal regime and official fear of demonstrations.
“The mass
action highlighted and proved that this government is
illegitimate,” he said.
“That is why it is now increasingly relying on force
to remain in power. Its
determination to use coercion to keep itself in
control shows that it is
afraid of its own people.”
Raftopoulos said the mass action also
indicated that despite its failure to
mobilise a critical mass of people to
confront the regime in the streets,
the MDC “actually has popular support on
the ground”.
MDC spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi said the lashing out by
government and the
subsequent deployment of security forces was an admission
that Zimbabwe has
become a quasi-military regime.
He said the move was
a “massive defeat for government and victory for
democracy”. Although it had
overwhelming support, MDC failed to bring large
numbers of people onto the
streets.
Observers said this was largely because the party had not put in
place a
strategy based on a realistic assessment of the situation and tactics
that
could match the demands of the circumstances.
The opposition had
also not been able to identify and exploit weaknesses of
the regime. Analysts
say despite its semblance of strength, government is
riddled with fundamental
— some even say fatal — flaws, which include
bureaucratic and personal
rivalries and institutional inefficiencies.
This had made the system less
effective and more vulnerable to changing
conditions and organised
resistance. But the MDC has not been able to
capitalise on this and deepening
popular disaffection caused by the
prevailing economic crisis. Instead, it
appears to be blowing with the wind
and relying on an anticipated spontaneous
uprising. Unless the MDC puts in
place a realistic strategy on mass action,
it will continue to appear
opportunistic and too inept to organise a coherent
campaign of resistance
against an increasingly insecure regime.
Zim Independent
Economic fallout is Mugabe’s nemesis
WITH the
government advertising daily its sense of deep insecurity and the
Movement
for Democratic Change confident that the nation looks to them for
change it
would seem we have reached a stalemate in our national affairs.
The state has
the power to coerce but it manifestly lacks
popular
legitimacy.
Despite the recent wave of arrests and assaults,
the situation is becoming
more precarious for the incumbents. They clearly
have no solutions to a
deteriorating economic situation which is arguably,
more than the MDC, their
nemesis. And last Friday’s cold shoulder from the
IMF will only compound
their sense of isolation.
Nobody in the
international community is taking NERP seriously, nor does it
deserve to be
taken seriously at home. It has already missed several key
targets and is
much too closely bound up with Zanu PF’s damaging land
seizures. In any case,
donors have made it clear they will only be receptive
when all parties in
Zimbabwe agree on a national recovery plan. That
excludes finance ministers
presenting the plausible face of a regime
committed to economic sabotage at
every level.
There is a growing sense in South Africa, at last reaching
into the inner
levels of the ANC, that the ruling class in Harare is now
beyond the pale.
The brutal crushing of last week’s protests have helped that
along.
And the welcome awakening of black Americans and West Indians to
the reality
of the Mugabe regime’s delinquency, as signalled in messages last
week, can
leave the government in no doubt as to its diminishing
international support
base.
Resorting to solidarity messages from
fringe groups like Coltrane Chimurenga
’s December 12 gang or the Rev Walter
Fauntroy’s National Black Leadership
Round Table only serves to emphasise how
strained relations with the real
world have become.
Tying up MDC
leaders in legal red-tape on transparently vexatious charges
will simply
underline the problems of a government unable to offer solutions
to pressing
problems and instead lashing out at those who can.
We report this week on
the tentative negotiations, mediated by the churches,
going on behind the
scenes. It must have been to this initiative that
President Thabo Mbeki was
alluding when he told parliament in Cape Town last
week that the two sides
were talking to each other.
Morgan Tsvangirai’s arrest is likely to
scupper any progress there, and
indeed could have been designed to do so by
the hardliners around Mugabe who
fear for their own
survival.
Meanwhile, Tsvangirai’s plan to force through a
presidential-poll rerun
within the mandatory 90 days after Mugabe’s departure
— his focus for any
talks unveiled to G8 diplomats last month — is frankly
unhelpful.
The talks should be designed to establish a democratic
framework for
elections and future governance. The restoration of
professionalism in the
army and police, the establishment of independent
electoral mechanisms, a
credible voters’ roll, the repeal of Posa and Aippa,
and the establishment
of a transitional authority, representing both sides
and endorsed by
parliament, should be the aim of any such negotiations, not
the replacement
of Mugabe by Tsvangirai.
The MDC leader’s assurance
that all the other things will flow from his
election is frankly as
unconvincing as it is unacceptable.
Zanu PF needs to be locked into a
process of democratisation that has the
support of regional leaders and the
international community. Sidelining Zanu
PF will simply alienate the
governing class and its military allies.
Let’s hope good sense prevails
and that Tsvangirai thinks again. He appears
to have been the victim of some
ill-conceived advice. But he can be sure
that whatever criticism civil
society may have of his rapid-transition
project, it will be nothing like the
sympathy and support he will have
garnered by the courage and determination
he has shown this week and last.
It is a measure of the government’s
crass stupidity that it has focused the
nation’s and the world’s attention on
the plight of a democratic fighter
chained and dressed in prison garb when he
has been convicted of nothing
more than giving Zimbabwe’s brutal kleptocracy
a much-needed reality check.
It appears unable to understand that imprisoning
freedom fighters has never
in this country’s history prevented change.
Zim Independent
Eric Bloch Column
Lies and threats accelerate
economic collapse
FROM the point of view of the Zimbabwean economy, last
week’s mass protests
called by the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to
motivate President
Robert Mugabe to retire, were catastrophic. The economy
has been
progressively weakened over the last six years, almost wholly due to
the
acts of omission and commission of government. By 2003 an economy which
had
been showing great promise of growth and virility, was fragile
and
debilitated. Desperately struggling to survive, it was then ambushed
and
beaten last week by both the MDC and government, bringing it even further
to
its knees.
The issue of whether or not the president should retire
is not relative to
the futility of, and destruction by, the mass protests.
(It takes a great
and wise man to know when it is time to go, and to do so
gracefully). The
point in evaluating the merits or otherwise of a mass
protest structured to
comprise work stoppages and stayaways, accompanied by
peaceful
demonstrations and marches, is whether or not such protests have
any
prospects of success and, if so, whether those prospects would outweigh
a
barrage of negative consequences. The answer must be a categoric no on
both
counts, and it is therefore regrettable that the MDC did not take
cognisance
of that negative before embarking upon an ill-conceived path which
achieved
nothing other than to devastate the economy.
That the MDC may
have done so with a sense of desperation, through its
awareness of a
near-total absence of genuine democracy, law and order, and
good governance
is understandable but most unfortunate. Not only was it
evident that Zanu PF
would cling to power by any means and that, therefore,
the protests would be
doomed to failure, but at the same time the only
conceivable outcomes of the
protests in the form adopted by the MDC were
greater hardships for the
populace, further abuses of law, greater
decimation of the economy, and a
discrediting of the MDC and much of the
good that it espouses.
How can
the MDC credibly pursue certain actions in the Zimbabwean courts
whilst it
concurrently flouts other court orders, no matter that it may have
been
immoral and undemocratic of government to seek such orders, and many
may
disagree with the court’s determinations? But the MDC can’t “have its
cake
and eat it”! As a result of its trying to do so, some inevitably
ponder
whether the MDC’s policies on the preservation of law and order are
not as
distorted as those of Zanu PF and, if so, whether there is any future
for
Zimbabwe. Such doubts further weaken the already frail confidence of
the
business community and of investors, causing them to hold back from the
very
actions necessary for economic wellbeing and recovery.
Worse
still was the quandary with which many of the population were
confronted.
There are indications that great numbers were desirous of
supporting the
proposed peaceful protests, perceiving a need to voice their
strong objection
to the manner in which government pursues policies which
they consider to be
most objectionable. They wished to voice their distaste
for the manner in
which government seeks to assure its grasp for all time on
the tools of sate
control, for the destruction that government has wrought
upon the economy,
with consequential ever-intensifying suffering for
millions, and for
government’s determined misuse of law to further its
objectives. But those
who wished to support the protests also knew that they
could not afford to do
so, and that they and their families would greatly
suffer from doing
so.
They were fully aware that most employers could not afford to pay
wages to
those that did not work for their businesses were already battling
to
survive and that battle would be far greater with the loss of a
week’s
production. With real inflation running well over 300% (as compared to
an
official year-on-year inflation rate in April of 269,2%), few workers
have
been able to accumulate any savings to sustain them and their
families
through a week of protests.
Nevertheless, in practice very
large numbers did stay away from work. They
did so reluctantly due to their
awareness of resultant intensified economic
hardship.
But they did so
either because they could not access transport to work (for
most commuter bus
operators feared the of risks of attacks on them and their
vehicles by
extremists trying to assure a total stayaway), or because they
were victims
of intimidation, or they feared that they would become victims
of
intimidation. So tens of thousands stayed away from work, not in order
to
support the MDC protests, but in the absence of an acceptable
alternative
and, in so doing, knew that they were subjecting themselves and
their
families to the ills of intensified poverty.
Government
certainly did not cover itself with glory, and its conduct and
misconduct
will impact very negatively upon the economy. First, it
demonstrated to the
populace and to the world that despite its protestations
that democracy
prevails in Zimbabwe, the reverse is the case. This became
evident when
actions proved that despite all contentions to the contrary,
Zimbabwe is
effectively under martial law, even if not declared. How else
can it be
explained that Zimbabwean soldiers demanded sight of people’s
identity
documents, even to the extent that they went to numerous homes
in
high-density areas and subjected residents to near-inquisitions?
Possibly
the police have such authority, but what empowers the army to do
so?
Secondly, abusing its authority over the state-controlled media,
government
promoted such blatant lies that even the most gullible could not
have been
deceived. After the first day of the scheduled protests, the
government
media trumpeted that the stayaway had been “a total flop”. They
alleged that
virtually all businesses were open and that economic normality
prevailed.
But the next day the same media proudly announced that most banks
had
reopened (How could they do that if they had not been closed?), and
that
most of the businesses that had been closed on the previous day were
again
operational. But yet another day later the same media bewailed the
extent to
which businesses were closed, and alleged that that was due to
connivance
and conspiracy between white-owned businessmen, the MDC and the
British
government.
If, as previously stated, the businesses were all
open, how is it that they
were all closed? And if it was white-owned
businesses that were guilty of
confrontation with government, how is it that
banks in which government is a
major shareholder were closed, as were
industries partially owned by the
ruling party, and others owned by leading
members of Zanu PF, and some
departments of Zimpost? Must one now assume that
Zanu PF government and
parastatals are composed of white, British
conspirators? Surely not! But
such spurious lies further destroy Zimbabwe’s
image at home and abroad,
deterring investment, discouraging trade,
alienating donor support, and
curbing tourism.
But that did not
suffice! The economy was struggling, but not yet dead! So
ministerial venom
and threats were let loose against the private sector. At
least two, and
possibly more, ministers announced the intent to revoke
licences of
businesses that were closed during the protests. In doing so
they disregarded
the fact that many businesses are not required to have
licenses (There is no
requirement for manufacturing industries to have any
form of operating
licence. They are required, for reasons of health and
safety, to be
registered under the Factories Act, but not to be licensed).
And, insofar as
businesses are required to be licensed, those licences are
issued by
municipalities, not by government, and the legislated qualifying
requirements
for licences do not prescribe mandatory continuous operations
of the
licensees.
Most of all, government saw fit to disregard the fact that the
businesses
that were closed were, with almost no exception, precluded from
operating
because of the extent that worker absences prevented effective
operation, or
because the businesses were the recipients of threats of dire
consequences
if they remained open. So businesses had to close, and others
understandably
succumbed to intimidation and threats, rather than have the
businesses,
their owners, and such staff as were present, placed at
risk.
Government threats of withdrawal of licences were, no matter how
devoid of
substance, yet another demotivant for the business community and
for
investors and, therefore, another nail in the economy’s coffin. The
MDC’s
actions were ill-advised and economically destructive,
butgovernment’s
responses were evenmore so. Its lies, through its media, and
its threats,
have undoubtedly accelerated Zimbabwe’s already rapidly
approaching economic
collapse.
Zim Independent
Muckraker
Mugabe’s feet of clay showing
cracks
PRESIDENT Mugabe briefly visited the planet Earth last week for an
interview
with the SABC. But he revealed he had not been Earth-side for a
while by
offering delusional answers to many of the questions put to
him.
“The economic situation now in Zimbabwe is not so bad — it was much
worse
during the war of liberation — we were living in the forest and eating
wild
berries,” he claimed. As a reader pointed out, the man was comparing his
own
personal situation in 1975, when he was detained in a Frelimo camp,
with
2003, not the situation of his 12 million people. For them the
government is
dramatically failing to deliver the basic essentials for their
lives.
Indeed, with its voodoo economics it is almost entirely responsible
for
their predicament. Possibly Mugabe’s intention is to reach the point
where
12 million people are consigned to the forests, living off wild
berries. But
unfortunately there are not sufficient forests and certainly not
sufficient
berries!
Here’s his response to another question from the
SABC’s Phil Mo-lefe,
arguably one of the corpora-tion’s least demanding
interviewers:
“I do not want to teargas my youth... I do not want to
increase the
suffering of my people... but they have been
misled...”
So it’s OK to teargas people who have been “misled”? Surely
it is the duty
of a leader to explain to his people if and when they are
being “misled”? A
leader who is respected for his achievements will be able
relatively simply
to counter any attempts to mislead the people, after all he
has complete
charge of all terrestrial TV, 99% of radio, and 50% of
newspapers. It is not
a privilege of a leader to brutalise his population
because someone is
“misleading” them.
Mugabe made contradictory
comments on the war veterans and their role in
farm occupations. One minute
he claimed that war veterans were operating
without any control or prompting,
in the next he used the word “we”.
And just in case there were those
unaware of his degrees in violence, he
reminded viewers: “I can still
punch!”
Molefe provided a text-book example of how not to conduct an
interview.
There was not a single challenging question. Instead he asked
Mugabe all the
questions he was happy to answer, even reading out the Clare
Short letter
saying Britain was no longer trapped in the cage of colonial
guilt.
“How was that letter received by your government?” Molefe asked.
It was a
gift to the president and looked suspiciously as if it had been
supplied to
Molefe by the President’s Office. In reply to other questions,
when Mugabe
couldn’t find the right words Molefe helpfully supplied them.
Mugabe was
allowed to get away with assertions that “whites rallied openly
behind the
opposition” in the 2000 referendum as if it was some sort of
offence. Nor
was he tackled when he openly admitted the illegality of land
invasions,
saying “we took it by force”.
Useful to have it on the
record. But surely SABC can do better than this?
Molefe was completely out of
his depth. Bring back Supa!
Do you recall all those articles in the
government press telling us how
isolated the US and EU were in opposing
Mugabe; that the world could be
divided into black supporters and white
racists? Key to this view was the
claim that Commonwealth countries in the
Caribbean were among his greatest
admirers. We are therefore pleased to bring
you the following comments from
the Jamaica Observer headed “It’s time for Mr
Mugabe to go”.
“People who actively supported the southern African
struggles against
institutionalised racism and white minority rule are likely
to be deeply
hurt, ashamed even, by the antics of Mr Robert Mugabe, the
president of
Zimbabwe. Jamaicans, and West Indians in general, would be
counted among
these people. Race and history would have made people of this
region
empathetic with the peoples not only of Zimbabwe but all of southern
Africa,
including South Africa, Namibia, Angola and Mozambique.”
The
paper explained Jamaica’s role in Zimbabwe’s struggle for freedom and
the
presence of Bob Marley at the Independence ceremony which served to
further
cement the Jamaica/Zimbabwe relationship.
“Zimbabwe began its
Independence with much promise, not withstanding a few
lop-sided arrangements
to appease the old order,” it continued. “But we had
all assumed that Robert
Mugabe stood on a higher moral plane. History and
circumstance had ordained
it so. As it has turned out Mr Mugabe, the bush
war hero, has feet of clay.
But worse, he has become that much-caricatured
leader in the post-colonial
period. He represents a political process
encased in venality, while the
society crumbles around him.
“Mr Mugabe has attempted to mask his final,
and absolute, corruption by
playing to the legitimate issue of landlessness
among the country’s black
majority population. It is a fact that a handful of
white farmers controls
over 90% of the country’s best land, the spoils of
colonial conquest. It is
beyond debate that reform is necessary. But in Mr
Mugabe’s hands the land
issue is a chimera. It is not a genuine attempt of a
modern, tolerant and
democratic society to come to grips with a real problem.
Rather, Robert
Mugabe has found a theme which he can milk linguistically for
the
perpetuation of his own power. He in the process declared a willingness
to
trample the rights of his people and undermine institutions, most of
which
survive as mere facades. Mr Mugabe does more. He marches on his
people’s
future and on our own dreams. He diminishes Zimbabwe as well as
those who
also felt that the struggle was also theirs. He weakens the
Diaspora.
“Mr Patterson, our own prime minister, should rally his
Caribbean Community
counterparts for our region to publicly tell Mr Mugabe
that he has become
not only a liability to his own people, but a public
embarrassment. They
must advise him that it is time to go.”
This
editorial, published last week, follows hot on the heels of an equally
robust
statement last week by African Americans. Mugabe’s attempt to divide
the
world into black and white on the Zimbabwe land issue has run its
course. The
black diaspora now see him for what he is: a ruthless despot for
whom land
has been a handy tool to hold back the democratic tide.
‘The
limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom
they
suppress.” That pertinent reminder comes from the newzimbabwe
website
(www.newzimbabwe.com). The
website is managed by former Daily News reporter
Mduduzi Mathuthu, now based
in London. It contains some interesting reports.
Another quote worth
recalling has been sent in by a reader dismayed by the
events of last week.
It comes from Winston Churchill who recalled in his
autobiography, The
Gathering Storm, the futility of appeasing dictators.
“If you will not
fight for the right when you can easily win without
bloodshed, if you will
not fight when your victory will be sure and not too
costly, you may come to
the moment when you will have to fight with all the
odds against you and only
a small chance of survival. There may be even a
worse case: you may have to
fight when there is no hope of victory, because
it is better to perish than
to live as slaves.”
We haven’t come to that yet. But Zanu PF appears
determined to block the
means of peaceful change. People with views that
reflect those held by the
ruling party have been distributing leaflets to
businesses in Borrowdale
warning “unrepentant white Rhodesians” that they
will be targeted for
violence if they continue to support the
MDC.
“For a long time we have been registering the houses of all racist
former
white Rhodesians,” the leaflets say.
“Now the mass action will
be directed to your doorsteps. Prepare for
teargas, destruction of
properties. You have enjoyed enough.
“Prepare to run if you don’t stop
the MDC hooliganism. We are no longer
Kefas.”
Whoever wrote this is
advertising his links to the people who control the
teargas. With such
obvious clues, it isn’t too difficult to establish the
connection between
these threats and those contained in leaflets distributed
in the city centre
last week. The cowards who control the levers of power
are the same people
who directed the violence last week against Zimbabweans
exercising their
democratic right to protest against a criminal regime. We
know who they
are.
One of these cowards surfaced in the Herald last Saturday calling
for the
editors of the Independent to be “thrown in jail where coup plotters
like
them belong”.
This pathetic individual, who purports to be
“Nathaniel Manheru”, imagines a
coup-plotter behind every Bush — or is it
Blair? He appears obsessed by
toilets. He has one very old lavatorial joke
and he repeats it several
times.
His need “to go” is understandable.
But the incontinent repetition of lies
about journalists rather gives this
particular author away. After all, who
else do we know called Nathaniel? He
has been speaking recently about
“unrepentant racist Rhodesians”. Having
bored readers of the Sunday Mail to
tears with his creepy-crawly CIO tales,
he is now imposing himself on the
Herald under the unoriginal rubric of “The
Other Side”.
We are only too aware whose side he is on. The losing
side!
The Mirror’s proprietor Ibbo “Six Farms” Mandaza has got a bee in
his bonnet
about our reporter Mthulisi Mathuthu who is accused of “wallowing
in the
murky business of personality-bashing and malicious
mudslinging”.
This arises from a story about problems experienced at
Sapes. Our news
editor Vincent Kahiya was also abused for reporting on a
court case brought
by former Sapes director, Mafa Sejanamane, now branded
“sacked”, “bitter”
and “disgraced” by the angry author of the Sunday Mirror’s
“Behind the
Words” column.
We shouldn’t have listened to Sejanamane
was the short message. He obviously
had an axe to grind.
What Mandaza
doesn’t appear to appreciate is that the Independent’s story
was based almost
entirely on court documents. The outcome of the case was
reported very fully,
not to say ad nauseam, in the Mirror.
As for the funding wrangle at
Sapes, should Mathuthu really be branded
“psychotic” for mixing up Danida
with Norad?
Nobody here is out to get the Mirror whatever its stagnant
Zanu PF agenda.
Those levelling the accusation of trying to “tarnish”
Mandaza’s image should
first consider what his paper permitted the deeply
deranged David
Nyekorach-Matsanga, formerly of the Lord’s Resistance Army, to
say in its
advertorial pages about the Zimbabwe Independent in January. Talk
about
psychotic! The Sunday Mirror should remember the adage about glass
houses.
This is becoming a really interesting place, a reader points out.
The only
country in the world where your largest note — $500 — can’t buy you
a beer,
which is $650. A roll of single-ply toilet paper costs $1 000. There
are
approximately 72 sections on the average roll, so it is cheaper to take
your
$1 000, change it into $10s, do the necessary with 72 of them and get
$280
change.
As you can see, our readers are a busy
lot!
Finally, a reader in South Africa has asked us to compare the
following
remarks.
Ian Smith: “Never in a thousand
years…”
Robert Mugabe: “Never, never, never, ever…”
Strange how
those pronouncing their unyielding resistance to change don’t
survive much
longer!
Zim Independent
Zimbabwe's economy implodes
Ngoni
Chanakira
ANALYSTS say last week's five-day stayaway will increase
unemployment levels
and exert more pressure on an already fragile and
contracting economy.
However, Harare executive mayor Elias Mudzuri says
Zimbabweans have already
suffered enough and therefore have "nothing to lose
anymore".
Last year more than 400 companies closed shop making at least
350 000
jobless.
Agriculture has seen a further 500 000 being made
redundant sending the
country's unemployment figure up to 75% - the highest
in the region. South
Africa's unemployment rate is 30%.
The mass
action organised by the major opposition party, the Movement for
Democratic
Change (MDC) resulted in commerce and industry grinding to
a
halt.
The stayaway overshadowed the National Economic
Consultative Forum (NECF)'s
deliberations at the prestigious Harare
International Conference Centre on
Friday to discuss the country's tattered
image and solicit ideas for
economic progress.
The NECF,
comprising 150 "top business executives" appointed by President
Robert Mugabe
to advise on economic recovery, admitted that all was not well
in
Zimbabwe.
The organisation said dialogue was needed in Zimbabwe to
arrest various
issues such as incessant macro-economic instability and
serious balance of
payments problems attributed to a decline in exports from
US$2,5 billion in
1998 to US$1,3 billion in 2002.
The NECF also
admitted that there was a "declining quality of life among
Zimbabweans as a
result of high unemployment, declining real incomes and
deterioration in the
quality of public amenities including health, transport
and
education".
Mugabe however told the SABC on Sunday night - two days
after the event -
that the mass action had "failed totally" and Zimbabwe was
being "demonised
for being principled especially on the land
issue".
The president however admitted that he had "highly-educated
experts" in his
government as economic advisors who were "not addressing
major issues
timely".
Commenting on the latest cash crisis facing
Zimbabwe Mugabe said: "We have
highly-educated experts who think a situation
must be handled or addressed
in a normal way. They demand bookish rules and
bookish norms. We are in a
state of war and we must look at vital points. We
are going to overhaul the
situation soon."
Economist John
Robertson said it would prove very difficult for Zimbabwe to
"overhaul the
situation soon" and "get back on track" because the economy is
crippled
anyway.
In an interview, Robertson said: "The economy has been
crippled further
after the stayaway. However, when you are barely moving some
people cannot
even tell the difference."
He said what worsened the
economic crisis was that the political front was
also a cause for
concern.
Mayor Mudzuri, interviewed by allAfrica.com in Washington DC
en route to the
second annual international mayor's conference in Denver,
Colorado, last
week said: "Harare people have nothing to lose by going to the
streets.
Actually it's a demonstration to say the government is not treating
them as
normal human beings…I wouldn't call it a strike; it's a demonstration
to
show that the government is no longer for them. The health system
has
collapsed. There is no money in the banks. There is no food in the
shops.
There is no sugar. Almost everything is not there, which means that
the
government has seriously failed and the people are now saying, 'Enough
is
enough'."
Several companies have already hinted that Zimbabwe
needs to improve its
macroeconomic fundamentals for them to survive let alone
earn elusive
foreign currency for the nation.
The companies are
struggling to exist and made losses for the year ended
December
31.
In statements accompanying their results the companies hinted
that this
financial year could prove another nightmare for
them.
Companies such as Hippo Valley Estates Ltd (Hippo), National
Foods Holdings
Ltd (Natfoods), Pretoria Portland Cement Company Ltd (PPC) and
Zimbabwe
Sugar Refineries (ZSR) have already warned that their performance
would be
disappointing if the economic climate did not change. Some of them
have
embarked on shifts and laying off employees.
Zim Independent
Taking Stock - No better time to invest than now
With
Barbican Asset Management
WHILE the general investor expected inflation to
surge upwards, no one
expected it to rise this high. This has made almost
everyone believe that
the worst is yet to come. A loaf of bread has suddenly
become a luxury in
most households. Unbelievable isn't it?
During the
great Asian financial crisis one investment advisor's remarks got
the vote to
be the quote of the year. All the advisor said was: "Difficult
times are here
not only to see us suffer but also to make us think better
and prosper in
them…"
There is no doubt these are the hardest times ever in Zimbabwe
but is there
no opportunity to prosper in them? This week we take a look at
the various
investment avenues in our economy amid these difficult
times.
Money market
The money market has of late been
underfire mainly because of the negative
interest rates that prevail in this
market. Official inflation figures are
hovering around 270% while money
market rates are around 65% on average. One
wonders if true inflation can be
tracked and out-performed by any investment
returns.
Money market
rates have in the past six months risen from 30% in January to
an average of
65% todate. In some instances rates of up to 90% have emerged
in the market.
With the current cash crisis in the banking sector, rates in
excess of 90%
will soon emerge. Maybe these are some of the opportunities
arising out of
the present difficulties.
For short-term investors, that is for
investments as short as one to two
weeks, this could be the best market
otherwise their funds lie idle,
especially given that it is a bit difficult
to move into and out of other
markets such as the equities and property
within such short time periods. It
therefore follows that investors with
investment horizons as short as seven
days either go into the money market or
they sit on their money. But there
are opportunity costs of sitting on
cash.
Rates in the money market are likely to remain on the upside
for a longer
period of time due to current shortages. This market could be
used as
resting place by high-risk takers (stock market investors) when the
equities
market is on a retreating phase especially after a prolonged bull
run.
Equities market
The 200 000 point mark which the
industrial index surpassed recently
appeared to be a mere dream in the past
few months. Very few investors are
convinced that the index could be heading
for the 350 000 mark before
year-end -- this is how most of them are left out
as the few continue to
harvest profits.
It is interesting to note
how price controls are dying a natural death. Most
companies had been finding
the going tough because of these price controls.
The "death" of price
controls is therefore expected to enable affected
companies to report
respectable earnings in their next reporting period.
In light of the
on-going fuel and power shortages, mainly because of foreign
currency
shortages, don't you think we are yet to hear about two or more
devaluations
before the end of the third quarter? The implication of this on
exporting
counters is obvious.
We therefore expect most companies to report
higher earnings in their next
reporting and this is expected to push their
share prices even higher. As
the March reporting season is coming to an end,
it would not be a surprise
to see the market retreating in the next few
weeks. Investors should take it
as an opportunity to take positions before
the next reporting period.
Property market
Property prices
have been on the upside for the past three years. Rentals
have also risen in
sympathy. This is also a good investment avenue if one
does not mind the
investment period, which is in most instances long.
With no solid
policies to contain inflation in sight, inflation will
continue to gallop,
and so will the prices of properties. As the current
economic turmoil is
likely to be with us for at least another three years,
inflation will
continue to gallop - this makes any property a cheap
buy.
Conclusion
It is always safe and wise to board a
wagon when it is stationary otherwise
you are left behind. Likewise,
investors should consider taking positions
urgently otherwise they lose out.
Remember that when the wagon stops you can
always disembark to stretch your
feet but again, remember to get back before
it restarts the journey.
Zim Independent
Letters
Signs of fear are evident
ALLOW me
to draw attention to developments over the last few days. The Zanu
PF
government has demonstrated how vulnerable it feels in a land where
the
people do not support it. They have to rule by force, using all
the
brutality at their disposal in the form of a very partisan police force
and
army. Any new government will have to take a close look at what they
inherit
in those circles and weed out any dissenters.
They have
demonstrated how weak they are by bringing out all the police and
army and
even bussing in mercenaries from the rural areas to terrorise the
population
because of their fear that perhaps there are some police and army
personnel
who can't be trusted. It was reported that Nathan Shamuyarira said
they had
done that because the police wouldn't cope.
What confidence! A tremendous slight on the police's capability.
All that hardware that
was on display was there for two reasons: to
intimidate the people into not
heeding the call to a democratic peace march
and to crush anyone who dared to
obey a call by the opposition, which gets
stronger by the day.
I
have heard the opinion expressed that the government, in demonstrating
how
vulnerable it feels, will now maintain the police and army in a state
of
high alert and have the military hardware always in sight. It is
obvious
that fear is the motivating force in Zanu PF.
Fear Drives
Dictators,
Harare.
Zim Independent
Letters
Bull elephant, king
BULL elephant,
king of kings, scourge of Rhodesian sellouts, conquistador of
filthy British
puppets, silky manipulator of the masses, master of judges,
panzer fuhrer of
green bombadiers, liberator of farms, mystical mirror of
the nation, emperor
of the media, child of the ancestors, wondrous worker of
economic miracles,
instant T-shirt designer, BA in violence, great puff
pastry. (Do you think
I've got his attention now? He loves this stuff.)
Greetings, grovels and
genuflexions... Fancy a little flutter on the
presidential stakes? I'm
prepared to bet you in crisp new Zimbabwe notes,
not this grubby forex you
have, that by June 30, 2004 you will be Il
Caudillo presidente no
more.
Oh you'll still be around, the TV talkshows need you. But you
will, I
regret, only be an elder statesman.
No more flying first
class trips to kiss and cuddle with Chirac, no more
Machiavellian addresses
to an adoring African Union, no holidays in Kuala
Lumpur or those naughty
little shopping trips with Grace.
Look, don't let it get you down.
I'm sure Morgan Tsvangirai will allow you
certain perks: free phone calls to
chums (Muammar Gaddafi in Libya,
Professor Moyo in jail, Patrick Chinamasa in
Mudzi, Kim Jong Ill in North
Korea and so on).
And perhaps a
year's subscription to the Economist to give you a nostalgic
chance to cross
check where it all went wrong.
Shame.
Paul
Tingay,
Pomona.
Zim Independent
Letters
Zanu PF will finally fall
WHO wants
to be seen or photographed at Heroes Acre?
In the more trying times
ahead, stressed but sober-minded Zimbabweans will
easily recognise the
symptoms of extreme desperation that the Zanu PF
hierarchy is resorting to to
save themselves for a while longer from their
inevitable exposure and
collapse.
Soon perhaps they will be asked to show their party
membership credentials,
but conceivably in different circumstances to those
known to them before.
Zanu PF has no coherent answers, durable plans
or excuses to justify their
persistent misgovernance, abuse and looting of
the nation and its people.
Tail-saving is now their foremost agenda item.
The question often arises -
who really wants to be photographed for historic
purposes paying homage to
the self-anointed hero at his acre when inevitable
circumstances come to the
fore?
That the president had difficulty
in attending to and dealing with the truth
and his future as revealed in his
recent Mbeki- sponsored and stage-managed
SABC TV interview is a matter that
would escape only a Zanu PF comrade.
Mental analysts will tell anyone
that the body language of shut eyes,
evasion, the loss of meaningful words,
expansive pauses, subject matter
deviation, denial and waving hand gestures
send messages of debility,
insecurity or of gross hallucination and of an
ingrained lying syndrome.
It is now inevitable that Zanu PF will
finally fail and fall. Even President
Mbeki cannot save them for much longer
unless he wants to promote an earlier
than expected dethronement on the
global stage, and in his own country.
In the silent absence of sane
and meaningful intervention from the professed
civilised democrats of the
world, Zimbabweans must now understand that the
Zanu PF chain of command will
spill as much blood as they can to retain
power and loot to further excuse
themselves from any future accountability.
To regain their natural
rights and democratically driven purposes,
Zimbabweans must understand that
to recover their rights Zanu PF must be
engaged on their own territory and in
clearly understood terms, and in a
manner that will deliver their hopes and
dues.
Zanu PF "heroes" are inherently endowed to run fast when not
gathered in
drug-crazed masses, or when they have no weapons readly available
to protect
themselves from overdue retribution.
How many soldiers
and policemen now go home with any confidence about their
futures in their
once proudly worn uniforms?
Walter Hurley,
Pretoria.
Zim Independent
Letters
The real rate of inflation
I READ
with fascination your article last week about RBZ governor Leonard
Tsumba and
the rate of inflation in Zimbabwe. The shortage of notes in
Zimbabwe is an
excuse for the government to print more money in an attempt
to buy itself out
of debt (which by the way is synonymous with staying in
power!).
All
this fiasco achieves is hyperinflation as savings become worthless by
the
day. If you think Tsumba's annual inflation rate (269%) is high, just
watch
out! I think it is already running at 365% per annum. It doesn't take
a
bigger brain to work out that some goods that sell for $100 today will
be
bought for $200 in just 100 days from now.
What a coincidence!
- 365% per annum inflation seems awfully close to the
present country debt of
$354 billion. Let's just for ease of mathematics
assume that the country's
debt is $365 billion. On that basis, when the
national debt reaches $1 000
billion then your inflation rate will be 1 000%
per annum.
If that
is right then for every $4 billion pumped into the economy per day
we will
have a 4% hike in annual inflation. Even if I ignore compounding,
that means
the real annual inflation rate for Zimbabwe is 365 x 4 = 1 460%
per annum
already!
I think it's time the ruling party got real and simply
capitulate gracefully
by holding a proper fair and internationally monitored
election.
The only alternative is blood on the walls.
MM,
UK resident.