Mugabe has been inventive and persistent. His violations built up over years, then months, then weeks, then days. By the end, it seemed as though the rules were changing by the hour, all with the purpose of twisting the democratic verdict he feared, and hoping to guarantee the one he felt he had to have.

He began with a reign of terror against white farmers, but that, though attracting big publicity in Britain and the US, wasn't the nub of Mugabe's assault on politics. The proof he gave of the need for democratic approval was constant harassment of his opponents in the MDC, torture of their supporters, disfranchisement of their voters; bogus legal actions against his chief rival, and the enlistment of the army for himself; expulsion of election monitors he didn't like the sound of, and subversion of many of the rest; sudden invention of new rules to deny the right to vote; incessant, hectoring, righteous intimidation, and the banning of foreign media: all to secure the magic numbers that say this brutal, corrupt old man can claim for the next six years a mandate from the people.

But the people, it seems, were not frightened. We don't yet know the turnout, still less the result. We've seen the long lines, and heard the voices of determination to vote. This is a country with, among other advantages greatly to its credit, an 80% literacy rate. The literacy is more than alphabetic. It doesn't necessarily lead a majority to vote against Zanu-PF, the president's party. But it produces an understanding of what democracy means, and an extraordinary willingness to fight for it against obstacles which, in Europe, could not be contemplated. From a country that dragged only 59% of a sullen electorate to the polls last time, without a piece of barbed wire to cross, one can only say: all hail Zimbabwe.

If the result goes to Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the MDC, that tribute will be unconditional. Such a triumph would show not only that the people had been brave, but that Mugabe was as incompetent an election-rigger as he was an economic manager. If Tsvangirai wins he will face a parliament stacked against him until the next election, and institutions of the state, from the army to the judiciary, packed with Mugabe's placemen. But his legitimacy, against such astounding odds, would be unchallengeable. He would give Zimbabwe an escape from her pariah ranking in the world. There would be no need to contest the result. Monitors from countries that have sided with Mugabe could find no possible reason to say Tsvangirai stole it. He might have at least as strong a mandate as George Bush, if not Tony Blair.

But it's more likely that Mugabe claims the numbers, and here the trouble will begin. Zimbabwe will suffer terrible trials, and continued misgovernment in every sphere. And that's not where the testing ends. The world should prepare for a challenge pitting its own proclaimed belief in democracy against the heroic example set by the voters of Zimbabwe. Let them be our model.

It was just about defensible for the Commonwealth leaders, meeting in Australia last week, to postpone a final verdict. They declined to condemn Mugabe outright, or openly challenge the run-up to the election. If we believe in democracy, it's prudent to wait for the outcome, in all its circumstances, before terminally denouncing the exercise. That's the line the majority took, against the advice of Mr Blair and others, even to the extent of producing a snivelling statement that pretended all sides were guilty of intimidation. This showed extreme, but perhaps cunning, even-handedness.

However, in the event of Mugabe reclaiming power, its honesty will be put to the question. Most of the journalism, black and white, coming out of Zimbabwe has produced a great deal of evidence to suggest the result cannot be deemed fair. The infringements of the run-up have been followed by numerous attacks on the invigilators, continuing through yesterday. The only people who will call that fair are those who find it politically convenient to do so. That's the way South Africa looks like jumping. Other Africans, including Nigeria, may follow. The Commonwealth is full of prevaricators and double-talkers, supported by propagandists who insist that African values - rather like Asian values before them - should not be tested by reference to the values of old colonialist Europeans.

This is a condescending way of denying that there are universal values, and that the honesty of democracy is one of them wherever democracy is on parade: Zimbabwe, India, Singapore, Northern Ireland. If the Commonwealth doesn't stand for such honesty, it stands for nothing. It no longer has an economic purpose, and never did have political power. What remains to it is the defence of political values, to which a Mugabe victory in this election, declared stainless and beyond reproach by Commonwealth observers among others, would be the most cynical insult since Mrs Thatcher stopped her fellow leaders from declaring Nelson Mandela a more rightful leader of South Africa than FW de Klerk.

The range of options available is limited. Now that the Commonwealth heads of government have dispersed for another two years, expulsion of Zimbabwe would be technically difficult. In theory, only the heads, in solemn assembly, can do it; and, on the precedents of Nigeria and Pakistan, only when a democratic government has been overturned by a military coup. The institution has failed to provide itself with the means to deal with a member state that murders opponents, cancels voting rights, kills off political discourse, sends in the militia, and calls the outcome democratic.

If this failure continues to prevail, and a sliver of respectability is thus conferred on Mugabe, the Commonwealth will not deserve to survive. It will have lost its last remaining purpose. Its members should stop pretending its very existence does wonderful things, however hard these may be to show.

But worst of all, it will have betrayed the people who in the last few weeks have suffered more for the cause of democratic representation than any western politician has ever had to do. We get democracy on a plate, and are beginning to yawn. Zimbabweans had to fight for it every day. Does life go on as normal, when their fight has been defeated by violence, crookery and the inert blessing of the world?