Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:33
A SECRET taskforce of security and
electoral personnel has been put in
place to ensure embattled President
Robert Mugabe and his ruling Zanu PF win
an absolute majority in tomorrow's
high-stakes elections. The team, headed
by Central Intelligence Organisation
(CIO) operatives tasked to ensure
Mugabe "wins power, stays in power, and
keeps power", will heavily influence
the already flawed electoral process to
secure a predetermined result,
well-substantiated information obtained this
week shows.
Mugabe's rivals Morgan Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni
yesterday charged
that Mugabe was going to "steal" the polls.
"There is a well-thought-out and premeditated plan to steal the
election
from us," Makoni said. "The credibility of the electoral process is
in
doubt."
Mugabe must win more than 50% of the valid votes cast to avoid
a
run-off. Independent surveys have tipped Tsvangirai to win the poll ahead
of
Mugabe and Makoni. The surveys have all pointed to the possibility of a
second round of polling as Tsvangirai is tipped to get just short of 40% of
the vote.
The working group, which sources say has "electoral
rigging graduates",
will go to any lengths to ensure Mugabe and Zanu PF win
tomorrow. The
presidential poll results, the sources said, would be
manipulated at the
National Command Centre (now renamed the National
Collation Centre) by
security officers.
"There is a team of
security and electoral agents in place to ensure
Mugabe wins," a
well-connected source said. "All sorts of fraudulent
measures will be used
to achieve this, including reducing of polling
stations and ballot papers in
opposition strongholds, slowing down the
voting process, turning away voters
and hence disenfranchisement, having
ghost voters and playing around with
the numbers of ballots.
"They have also been fiddling with the
structure of the already flawed
voters' roll to ensure there are more rural
than urban voters," the source
said. "This team has virtually taken over the
running of elections from the
ZEC (Zimbabwe Electoral Commission) and in the
process will subvert the
people's will."
Evidence that the ZEC was
not entirely in charge of the electoral
process was recently displayed in
public after election fliers under the ZEC
banner were distributed by
unknown people - suspected to be security
agents - wearing the commission's
jackets, claiming there would be cardboard
ballot boxes and permission for
police to help the infirm and illiterate at
polling stations.
The
ZEC was later forced to withdraw the fliers, saying it had no
knowledge of
who was distributing them. Last week it became clear that the
state was
implicated because Mugabe changed the law to allow police to be
involved in
the electoral process, something the January amendment to the
Electoral Act
had outlawed following inter-party talks.
The ZEC also recently hastily
withdrew its voter education officers
from the provinces after realising
ballot papers were printed in colours
different from those it was
advertising. The presidential ballots were
supposed to be white, House of
Assembly blue, senate green and council
yellow.
But when the ballot
papers came, there were three white ones
(presidential, House of Assembly
and senate) and yellow for council
elections, creating chaos.
Revelations of electoral chicanery underway make the defining
elections
appear decidedly rigged to retain Mugabe and Zanu PF in power
despite
deepening unpopularity due to the economic crisis.
However, government
has denied allegations of planning to rig
elections.
The
Independent's sources said yesterday Mugabe's team was working
hand-in-glove
with a group of University of Zimbabwe political science
lecturers,
including Dr Joseph Kurebwa, who was last year seconded by the
CIO to be
editor of the now-closed Mirror Group of Newspapers.
Kurebwa could not
be reached for comment last night.
Information to hand shows that
Mugabe's security and electoral
operatives - using the state bureaucracy and
resources instead of party
structures - have a "winning formula" for him to
secure between 52% and 53%
of the vote.
Mugabe's agents expect he
will get at least three million votes out of
the total valid ballots cast.
There are 5,9 million registered voters,
according to the ZEC.
Initially, Mugabe's agents had calculated that unless something was
done, he
would only get between 49% and 50%. They later suggested a lot of
hard work
was needed to produce a victory margin of at least 52%.
Mugabe's
taskforce has given the main opposition MDC leader Tsvangirai
about 27% of
the vote. They expect Tsvangirai to get a tad above 1,5 million
votes.
Mugabe's team expects ex-Finance minister Makoni to get
slightly above
20% of the vote or just over a million votes.
Mugabe's working group predicts Zanu PF will win 137 seats in the
House of
Assembly, Tsvangirai's MDC camp 53, Arthur Mutambara's MDC faction
18 and
that there would be two independent MPs. The House of Assembly has
210
seats.
In the senate they forecast Zanu PF to win 41 seats,
MDC-Tsvangirai 13
and MDC-Mutambara six out of 60 elective seats in the
upper house.
The sources said there was collaboration between Mugabe's
taskforce
and Kurebwa. Yesterday the senior UZ lecturer in the Department of
Politics
& Administration - with strong CIO links - released a survey
which had
comparable figures to those of Mugabe's taskforce.
Kurebwa said Mugabe would get between 56% and 57% of the vote. This is
similar to the 53% figure by Mugabe's agents. Tsvangirai is set to secure
between 26% and 27% of the vote. Mugabe's taskforce predicts that he will
get 27%. Makoni is expected to get between 13% and 14% of the vote,
according to Kurebwa, whereas Mugabe's team says he will get 20%.
The extent of the collaboration becomes clear when one looks at the
House of
Assembly and senate figures. Kurebwa's figures are exactly the same
as those
produced by Mugabe's taskforce, establishing a clear connection
between the
two. It is said that the data used by Mugabe's working team was
similar to
that used by Kurebwa's group.
In 2005 Kurebwa predicted that Zanu PF
would win 72 seats in the
general election. The party won 78 seats. He also
forecast that the MDC
would win 45 seats; it won 41 seats.
Sources
said Kurebwa's surveys - including the one released
yesterday - are designed
to justify manipulation and rigging of elections by
the state.
By
Dumisani Muleya
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:25
HIGH
Court judge Lavender Makoni last week dismissed an urgent
chamber
application filed by the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) to
stop the
Zimbabwe Independent from publishing a story disclosing details
relating to
the spy agency’s boss, Happyton Bonyongwe. Makoni dismissed the
application
before the Independent had filed its opposing papers.
The CIO last week
obtained the article before the paper had published
it.
The
Independent has since suspended its senior reporter, Augustine
Mukaro, to
facilitate investigations into how the article ended up with the
intelligence service after it appeared to have been sent from his
e-mail.
The Zimbabwe Union of Journalists whose e-mail address was
included in
an annexure to the CIO’s court papers, is assisting with the
investigations.
The High Court judge said she could not hear the matter
because it was
not urgent as the article involved had been previously
published.
“The matter is not urgent …the article has been previously
published
on ZimOnline. If there was serious public alarm and despondency
it would
have occurred already,” she said.
There have been several
stories concerning Bonyongwe in recent weeks
including in the Herald where
he pledged allegiance to President Mugabe and
distanced himself from the
Simba Makoni camp.
In dismissing the application, Makoni said Bonyongwe
had other
remedies available to him if the article was published and did not
reflect
the proper position.
She said the papers which were filed
by the CIO did not establish
serious alarm and despondency, as it claimed,
for the matter to be heard on
an urgent basis.
CIO lawyer Robson
Chihota of Chihota & Associates said since his
urgent application had
been dismissed he was going to file an ordinary court
application to gag the
Independent. The CIO yesterday duly kept the case
alive by filing the court
application to interdict the paper from releasing
details of the
article.
Chihota yesterday wrote to the editor of the Independent
threatening
“criminal prosecution and/or civil damages” if the paper went
ahead and
published the story.
In an application filed yesterday,
CIO Deputy Director-General Mernard
Muzariri in a supporting affidavit to
the suit said: “I restate that there
is no, and has never been any acrimony,
bad blood, power struggles and any
misunderstanding of whatever nature
between myself and the director
general…”.
However, the
Independent is still planning to publish its story
despite continued CIO
efforts to block it.
Bonyongwe through Chihota last week claimed the
story could not be
published as it contained information which threatened
state security.
“Publication of a detailed version would cause irreversible
harm, loss of
cohesion, alarm and despondency, indiscipline and multiplicity
of adverse
consequences, which have the potential of militating against the
operation
and effectiveness of the security organisation,” said Chihota in
the urgent
chamber application that was dismissed. ”I can state positively
that there
has never been any fallout between the CIO director-general and
the
president,” Bonyongwe said in his affidavit.
By Lucia
Makamure
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:24
THE High
Court yesterday ordered the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
(ZEC) to furnish
the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai with a complete copy of
the voters’ roll
ahead of tomorrow’s elections.
Handing down judgement in an application
by the MDC, Justice Tendayi
Uchena said the ZEC should only release the roll
upon payment by the
opposition.
The MDC approached the High Court
to compel the ZEC to release the
roll. It also wanted to know the
composition of the national command centre
and the number of polling agents
allowed inside polling stations.
Uchena ruled that the ZEC should
release the voters’ roll but
dismissed the other issues raised in the MDC
application saying they had
been overtaken by events.
The ZEC has
since announced that there will be no command centre, but
a national
collation centre and all contesting parties would be invited to
send polling
agents.
The commission also assented to the opposition’s demands that
there be
four polling agents from each party at every polling
station.
Uchena said the MDC application on these issues was justified,
but he
dismissed them because the ZEC made pronouncements before he could
determine
the case.
“The MDC’s quest for justice was justified and
had genuine cause for
concern,” Uchena said.
On the MDC’s
application to be furnished with information on where
ballot papers for the
elections were printed and their quantity, Uchena
said: “The ZEC should not
be subject to the control of any person or body.”
He said the law did
not provide for the MDC to have access to
information regarding the printing
of ballot papers. — Staff Writer.
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:22
A
NATIONAL association of the handicapped this week filed an urgent
High Court
application seeking the reversal of the Presidential Powers
Temporary
Measures (Amendment of Electoral Act) (No 2) Regulations 2008
that allows
police officers into polling booths to assist the handicapped
and the
illiterate.
The organisation, the National Association of Societies
for the Care
of the Handicapped, is an umbrella body of disabled people that
promotes and
protects their interests.
“I respectfully submit that
this is an urgent matter as it concerns
important electoral issues which
have to be adjudicated upon before the
elections, which are set to take
place on the 29th March 2008,” said Masimba
Kuchera, director of the
association in his founding affidavit.
The association said Sections 59
and 60 of the Electoral Act as
amended by Act No 17 of 2007 takes away from
applicants the right to choose
who can assist them in the voting process by
imposing police officers upon
them as their sole choice.
“To
safeguard the secrecy of the ballot applicants require to be
assisted by a
person of their own choice, without a limitation from where to
choose,”
Kuchera said in the court application. “They need to be assisted by
someone
whom they can... trust, someone they can confide in and someone they
can
trust with their ballot.”
Kuchera added that the imposition of police
officers on the
handicapped was a gross infringement of their rights to
privacy and free
expression of their political will as they would be forced
to be assisted by
persons that they hardly know.
By Jesilyn
Dendere
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:19
GOVERNMENT has put
security forces on alert ahead of elections
tomorrow to quell anticipated
disturbances if President Robert Mugabe wins.
The move reveals
anxiety within the corridors of power that there
might be anti-government
riots if Mugabe and his ruling Zanu PF win the
polls.
Security
sources said Zimbabwe’s military and police forces have been
placed on alert
ready to act after poll results are announced.
Yesterday police
armoured crowd control vehicles were patrolling the
city while there was
visible movement of police and soldiers in buses and
trucks.
If
Mugabe fails to get 51% of the vote there will be a run-off which
analysts
said he would almost certainly lose.
Opposition leaders yesterday said
government is likely to rig the
elections.
They said they have
unearthed overwhelming evidence of manipulation of
elections.
“The
army, police and other key security agencies have been put on
alert because
government fears that there could be an eruption of protests
and violence
after the elections,” a senior government official said.
“We have heard
that the MDC and its allies are planning to unleash
violence in the streets
if they lose.”
Senior MDC official Tendai Biti yesterday said: “The
elections have
been militarised. Army tanks are moving in the suburbs of
Harare and an army
from a Sadc country has been put on standby.” He could
however not
substantiate the claims of the standby force.
The
sources said recent statements by Zimbabwe Defence Forces
commander General
Constantine Chiwenga, Police Commissioner-General
Augustine Chihuri, and
director of prisons retired Major-General Paradzayi
Zimondi that the
security agencies would not accept an MDC victory were a
result of the
decisions taken by Mugabe and his security advisors.
Zimbabwean
opposition and civil society organisations, as well as
South Africa’s
governing ANC have condemned the thinly-veiled threats of a
military coup by
service chiefs.
Mugabe has warned he would crush any anti-government
demonstrations.
“Just dare try it,” Mugabe said. “We don’t play around
while you try
to please your British allies. Just try it and you will see.
We want to see
you do it.”
State Security minister Didymus Mutasa
also said government would deal
with protestors.
Police on Tuesday
said they would ruthlessly deal with any mass
action.
By Bernard
Mpofu
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:18
THE opposition was
yesterday battling with the alleged rigging of
tomorrow’s harmonised
elections by President Robert Mugabe, as more evidence
emerged that the
ruling Zanu PF intends to steal the polls.
Both factions of the MDC
and independent presidential candidate Simba
Makoni claimed that the
integrity and credibility of the historic polls was
in doubt as a result of
rigging by Mugabe.
Addressing a joint press conference last night,
Makoni said Mugabe had
come up with a well-planned project to steal the
election through the
creation of ghost voters and manipulation of the voters
roll.
“There is a well thought out and premeditated plan to steal the
election from us,” Makoni said. “The credibility of the electoral process is
in doubt.”
Arthur Mutambara, the president of the other faction of
the MDC, said
the Sadc and the international community should intervene to
stop Mugabe
from stealing the polls.
“All we are asking for is a
free and fair election,” Mutambara said.
“The irregularities we have
uncovered are very fundamental, very serious.
Please Sadc, the other African
countries and the international community,
help us to have a legitimate
election that the losers will not challenge.”
The Morgan Tsvangirai MDC
at an earlier press conference said as a
result of the rigging going on, the
party was told by its electoral expert
that Mugabe would win 58% of the
votes cast. Tsvangirai’s party through its
lawyer Alec Muchadehama was
yesterday expected to file an urgent High Court
application claiming that
Mugabe, using the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
(ZEC), the
Registrar-General’s Office and the Reserve Bank had put in motion
a process
that could secure the outcome for the incumbent.
The opposition said
the polls would be rigged through computerised
manipulation of the voters’
roll.
The MDC said Zanu PF would also use the RBZ under the guise of
paying
for polling officers to bribe the opposition’s agents and had since
militarised the elections by deploying the army throughout the
country.
Tendai Biti, the MDC secretary-general, told journalists in
the
capital yesterday that as part of the rigging process, the ZEC had
reduced
the number of polling stations throughout the country from the 11
000 the
commission initially announced to 8 500.
More polling
stations were designated in the rural areas compared to
the urban
centres.
As a result, Biti said, an urban voter would need 6,1 seconds
to vote,
while a rural one will require 9,2 seconds.
“There is a
disproportionate deliberate allocation of polling
stations,” Biti said. “In
rural areas there will be complete adequacy of
voting time, while in urban
areas it is not going to be adequate.”
The MDC, he said, had appealed
for more polling stations, “but after
we asked for bread we were given a
black mamba”.
Biti claimed that apart from the known polling stations,
the ZEC
intended to establish shadowy stations like mobile ones, which would
present
a “logistical nightmare” for the opposition. Turning to the voters’
roll,
Biti said the ZEC had contravened the Electoral Act by failing to make
available to the MDC a hard copy of the roll.
“It is the ZEC that
is obliged to give us the hard copy not (the
Registrar General) Tobaiwa
Mudede. It is clear to us that the ZEC is not
running this election,” Biti
claimed. “Mudede is an amalgam of the Central
Intelligence Organisation
(CIO) and President Mugabe.”
Biti said the ZEC provided the MDC with an
electronic version of the
voters’ roll, but it was not “data-based,
window-based and cannot be
analysed” because of the software used,
JPEG.
“The electronic version is like a musical disc — Michael
Jackson’s
album, Thriller, track number 1, Bad. You cannot breakdown the CD
and
analyse it,” Biti said.
He, however, claimed that the MDC
experts managed to “crack” the
electronic voters roll and discovered
shocking rigging at play.
An Israeli company, Nirkuv Project Ltd, with
links to the country’s
spy agency Mossad, Biti claimed, compiled the
electronic voters roll.
He claimed that the opposition party’s experts
discovered that in
Harare North constituency alone, 65% of registered voters
are found in one
ward and in that ward, 60% are registered by the ZEC under
a single block
(an electoral usage for voting areas), 81063.
Over 8
000 people are registered under the block and there are no
buildings.
“Physically its an open ground in Hatclife and there are
various
stands pegged on the ground and at stand number 10108 there is a
little
shack where the ZEC claims 75 registered voters reside there. Fifty
of them
are females,” Biti said.
Last week, it was reported that
the voters’ roll still had the names
of long-dead people on it, among them
the late former Law and Order minister
during the Rhodesian era, Desmond
Lardner-Burke, who was born in 1908. His
name was found on a ward voters’
roll for Mt Pleasant.The ZEC also stands
accused of failing to consult
political parties before it delimitated
constituencies as required by
law.
The MDC also questioned why the ZEC had not produced a
consolidated
voters’ roll after the extended voter registration exercise
ended on
February 13.
“We should have a consolidated voters’ roll
by now. We do not want to
have a supplementary voters’ roll. No one is aware
of how many people
registered after the exercise was extended to February
13,” Biti said.
His party queried the ZEC figures that Zimbabwe had 5,9
million
registered voters, saying initially they were informed that there
were 4,2
million voters and later 5,2 million, before it changed
again.
Biti said the ZEC had printed and distributed to all provinces
8,8
million presidential papers in a clear move meant to rig the
poll.
“You can’t print close to nine million ballot papers when you
claim to
have 5,9 million voters even if you assume that there is a margin
of error.
Normally the margin of error should be less than 5%,” Biti
charged. “We
believe there are 4,2 million voters and if you add the extra
three million
ballots papers added by the ZEC, the margin of error goes up
to over 90%.”
As a result of the manipulation, Biti said, Mugabe and
Zanu PF would
win.
“Our experts have told us Mugabe will have an
artificial majority of
58% if his rigging process succeeds,” Biti
said.
The lawyer declined to explain how the party arrived at its
voters’
roll figure and the percentage of votes Mugabe would win. He said
the RBZ
had become the fifth pillar of stealing the elections.
“There are Mossad agents here being paid by the RBZ,” Biti charged.
“The RBZ has deployed 400 of its workers throughout the country to
purportedly pay polling officers. We are aware that the central bank wants
to pay opposition polling agents $20 billion each to be on the side of
Mugabe and Zanu PF.”
During the press conference Biti produced a
letter purportedly written
by a police officer detailing how they are
intimidated into voting for
Mugabe through postal voting.
The
letter read: “…during postal voting our envelopes (with ballot
papers) come
to us with our force numbers on them. Only a fool will vote
freely because
we all know what will happen if you vote for someone not
wanted by the
bosses. The voting does not take place in a secret place, but
in the
presence of the (police) chief clerk.”
Biti said despite the alleged
rigging, the MDC would participate in
the polls and was confident that 95%
of Zimbabweans would vote for it.
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:14
THIS week our business
editor Shakeman Mugari interviewed independent
presidential candidate Simba
Makoni on his Mavambo project and prospects in
the election
tomorrow.
Mugari: Zimbabwe goes to the elections tomorrow, and one
of the issues
that people have raised is that you came on the scene late and
therefore you
are playing catch-up. What’s your response to that?
Makoni: It is quite clear that we started late because I only
announced my
candidature on the 5th of February. Mugabe announced (his
candidacy) in
March 2007. Morgan (Tsvangirai) confirmed by about September.
But we don’t
see it as a major disadvantage because we have been received
very well. You
should have seen the enthusiasm of the people as we went
round. So yes, I
came late but it was forced by other conditions. I however
feel we have had
enough time. People now know Mavambo.
Mugari: What were the conditions
that made you come late?
Makoni: When I was in Zanu PF, we were working
with others over a long
period of time, I could say it goes back to even
1997 or 1999 but more
specifically in the 2000 elections as we were facing
the election. I was one
of the people who were pushing for leadership
renewal in the country and the
party.
This picked up momentum at
congress. We had expectations that we would
go to congress to elect new
leaders but that was not possible for reasons
that everyone is aware of now.
It wasn’t until after the failure at the
extraordinary congress in December
that we started extensive and intensive
consultations both within the party
and outside that led me to announce my
candidature.
Mugari:
Independent opinion polls have been showing that Tsvangirai
will come first
followed by Mugabe and you will be a distant third. How do
you respond to
that?
Makoni: Wait for March 30 when the results are out.
Mugari: I want to know what you think will be the scenario on March
30
after the election.
Makoni: I can tell you that we are romping home to
victory. There are
no two ways about it.
Mugari: Do you mean
you will win so convincingly that there won’t be a
run-off?
Makoni:
There will be no re-run. Tsvangirai will be a distant second
and Mugabe will
be a further distant third.
Mugari: But the numbers at your rallies
don’t indicate as much. Where
are you getting the confidence to make such
bold predictions?
Makoni: From the engagement that I have had with the
people of
Zimbabwe. We have been meeting people from across the country. The
Herald
conceded in the second week of my campaign that Makoni’s
meet-the-people
strategy is working. Zanu PF and MDC are
worried.
Mugari: What makes you think that you can win this
election without a
political party? Other parties have clear structures that
you lack.
Makoni: Because the people of Zimbabwe are not looking for a
political
party. They are looking for a leader; a leader who unifies and
connects with
them. They want a leader who is honest, does not steal, cheat
and lie; a
leader who is not corrupt. That leader is me.
Mugari: You only have a few candidates contesting in the parliamentary
elections. What makes you think that Zanu PF supporters will vote for their
senator, MP and councillors but cast their vote for you as
president?
Makoni: Absolutely. Don’t underestimate the people of
Zimbabwe. There
are Zanu PF and MDC candidates who are campaigning for
themselves in their
respective constituencies but they are telling the
people that when it comes
to the presidency, vote for Simba
Makoni.
Mugari: When you announced your candidature, you said there
were many
people in the Zanu PF leadership behind you. Later, you said there
were no
heavyweights behind you. Just recently you changed again and said
you had
many supporters in the central committee and politburo of Zanu PF.
Is there
no contradiction here?
Makoni: Let me make it clear and I
hope you are going to write this.
This notion of heavyweights is a creation
of you guys in the media. I never
talked about heavyweights. Every single
voter in this country is a
heavyweight to me.
Mugari: Some
observers say that you are a Zanu PF project. The
allegation is that you
have been created to solve the Zanu PF succession
problem. Some say yours is
a plan to rescue Zanu PF from Mugabe.
Makoni: As I have gone round in
Maphisa, Checheche and Nyamapanda no
one has confronted me with this
question of the bigwigs or Zanu PF
succession issue. So which people are
these that you are talking about?
Mugari: What questions are you
confronted with?
Makoni: The common thread is excitement and enthusiasm
about the
project. I haven’t met people who doubt me or question my
sincerity. What I
know is that some mischief-makers like President Mugabe
and Vice-President
Msika are coming out saying who is Simba Makoni when in
fact they very well
know that I was the chief representative of Zanu in
Europe. I was raising
support for the liberation struggle.
Mugari: Linked to that, Mugabe has been attacking you in a very crude
way.
Why do you not respond to the attacks?
Makoni: Because I don’t operate
at that level. I deal with issues. I
am not silly and trivial. But it all
goes to show the bankruptcy of
President Mugabe. How can a person who
purports to be a leader of a country
in such a crisis sink to those levels
of profanity? That is language not
befitting any mature person let alone a
head of state. I won’t sink to that
level.
Mugari: Do you think
that the elections will be rigged? Ibbo Mandaza,
one of your key
strategists, said as much in an article that appeared in the
Independent
last week.
Makoni: Yes, this matter has been widely publicised. In fact
the MDC
has taken a related matter to the courts. They have said that the
integrity
of the process and the designation of the uniformed forces to
assist people
in the polling stations are questionable. The process of
counting the votes
and the integrity of the voters’ roll are also
questionable.
The national law says that the voters’ roll should have
been made
public by now but the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) is not
committing
to when the roll will be published. The roll that we have
accessed is as of
December 2007 and we all know that from February 6 to the
15 when I
announced my candidature there was a deluge of people who went to
register.
Mugari: So you are convinced that the election will be
rigged?
Makoni: They are so scared. Some of these measures are aimed at
stealing the election.
Mugari: Do you have a Plan B if the
election is stolen?
Makoni: We have one but we will not discuss it in
public.
Mugari: But the people want to know what they will do if
the election
is stolen. Surely you are one of the people in a position to
give that plan
now.
Makoni: We have planned to ensure that the
people’s will is not
negated.
Mugari: As a politician you must
keep your options open. Assuming that
you fail to get the numbers and there
is a run-off between Mugabe and
Tsvangirai who will you back?
Makoni: There will be no run-off and Simba Makoni will win kaOne.
Mugari: Why are you closing those options? Why are you not alive to
the fact
that you might lose these elections?
Makoni: Yes it is a possibility
indeed but it is an unlikelihood. I
won’t waste my time and intellect
thinking about what is not likely to
happen.
Mugari: The
constitution says a president forms a government but you
are saying you will
form a national authority.
Makoni: It’s a matter of words. The
constitution provides for an
executive. That is constituted by elected
representatives. We will proceed
to do that on March 30. We are a unifier.
We will form a government from the
representatives who are not thieves or
crooks.
Mugari: What if the other parties refuse to come into the
alliance?
Makoni: We will still find elected Zimbabweans of integrity
to form a
government.
Mugari: What is you response to Mugabe’s
statement that the opposition
will never rule this country?
Makoni:
This is not his country. Mugabe does not own this country. It
is not his
real estate; he has no title deeds to this country. The country
belongs to
the people who will cast Mugabe into history on March 29. He
should prepare
for that.
Mugari: What will you tell Mugabe if you meet
him?
Makoni: That he must respect the people of Zimbabwe and not insult
them.
Mugari: The commanders of the uniformed forces are
already saying that
they will not accept anyone except Mugabe.
Makoni: I don’t know if the words of one person reflect the views of
the
whole army.
Mugari: But they are the commanders.
Makoni:
They are just individuals. They are just citizens like you and
me.
Mugari: Some people say you are Solomon Mujuru’s person.
They say
Mujuru is part and parcel of your initiative. How do you respond to
that?
Makoni: Why should he be involved? There are many Zimbabweans who
are
involved in this project. This search for big names is for you guys in
the
media. Enjoy it!
Mugari: Do you think Mugabe still has key
people around him?
Makoni: Didn’t you hear Mugabe in Mutawatawa asking
school children
whether they are still with him? Mugabe is not with anyone.
He is alone. I
don’t think he has more than a handful of people in his
cabinet who support
him.
Mugari: A lot of people have
attributed the multiple exchange rates to
the actions of the central bank.
What will you do with the central bank if
you come into power?
Makoni: I have talked about the irregularities of the workings of our
national leadership and institutions. The Reserve Bank is not excluded. The
Reserve Bank has the only factory in this country that does not stop
operating because there is no power. That machine is the money
printer.
All other factories are closed for hours with no power and raw
materials but the factory of the central bank works 24 hours printing
bearers’ cheques. A sound economy should not run like that. The Reserve Bank
should not be buying votes for Zanu PF with mini-buses distributed two weeks
before an election. People have seen the truck-loads of scotch carts, hoes,
ploughs and grinding mills. That is not the function of the central
bank.
Mugari: You are on record as saying that if Tsvangirai thinks
that the
economy will turnaround in 100 days then he is dreaming.
Makoni: No, what I have said is that I believe Tsvangirai is promising
to
solve our problems in 100 days and I have asked for the method he will
use.
What I have seen is that he is promising US$10 billion but I can assure
you
that the amount is not enough to solve the problems that we have.
Mugari: How much time do you need to turnaround the economy? Dr Gideon
Gono
is promising that there will be a new policy after the election to
drive the
economy until 2010.
Makoni: That is very interesting coming from Gono
because remember
according to him this year is the mother of all
agricultural seasons. Why is
he talking about 2010? What has gone wrong with
this season? I am not in a
position to give a time table for the turnaround.
Without a deep analysis of
how this economy has been eroded and how much
damage has been caused by the
quasi-fiscal buying of votes, it will be
difficult to have a timetable. A
timetable is not possible without looking
at how much the lying and looting
of the national assets has been
done.
lOur efforts to interview MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai failed
this
week after his spokesperson George Sibotshiwe postponed
appointments.
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:12
THE will of the suffering
masses versus the gritty determination of
Robert Mugabe to stay in power:
that in a nutshell is the contest taking
place across Zimbabwe this
weekend.
Put another way, how badly do Zimbabweans want to be free
again and
how badly does Mugabe still want to hang onto power?
Who
then will emerge triumphant, the dictator who has robbed
Zimbabweans of most
of their dreams or the people’s determination to free
themselves from
decades of dictatorship, economic privation and social
destitution?
There is no doubt that were the people able to freely express
themselves
tomorrow this would be the end for Mugabe.
The air is pregnant with
expectations for change. But Mugabe has a
time- tested bag of tricks that
could frustrate the will of the people once
more.
Mugabe’s campaign
has lacked the energy and bombast of previous years.
His most
persuasive weapon, namely violence, has been relatively
absent largely
because not many are prepared to maim and kill in his name
anymore.
His message is tired and uninspiring and has been little more than a
history
lesson that has no relevance to the wretched existence of many
Zimbabweans.
This points to the fact that Mugabe can only win this election
by rigging
and nothing else.
The situation on the ground does not point to any
possible reasons why
anyone should vote for Mugabe.
Picture the
following: official inflation is at a whopping 100 580%.
Life under such
levels of inflation can at best be described as a nightmare.
Unemployment is
over 80% and life expectancy is down to 37 years.
The rural areas which
are considered Mugabe’s stronghold have been
worst affected by price
controls and the acute shortage of basic
commodities.
Seed and
fertiliser have been in short supply and Mother Nature has
conspired to
deliver two consecutive poor agricultural seasons. The
financial ruin facing
Mugabe means he has limited resources to buy rural
votes on a nationwide
scale.
So to some extent he can’t afford to buy the rural votes anymore
due
to his own ill-advised policies and of course the effects of Western
sanctions. So the truth is that few will vote for him this time around
because he simply has little to offer. But make no mistake, there are still
some who see him as a hero because they know no better.
Limited
access to independent media, especially in the rural areas,
also means that
some have been victims of government propaganda and will
vote for him for
that reason despite their own personal circumstances
telling a different
story. Those in receipt of Mugabe’s patronage in the
military, police,
traditional chiefs and government will work hard to
deliver victory to
Mugabe so that they continue looting.
Indeed, some voters will succumb
to the seductive effect of free
tractors, computers, buses, combine
harvesters and food and vote for Mugabe.
The huge salary hikes for civil
servants and soldiers were also meant to
purchase their support.
But many more will see Mugabe’s latest acts of generosity for what
they are,
namely desperate attempts to buy their votes.
While accepting these
gifts, they will realise that these inducements
will not change the economic
fundamentals characterised by high inflation,
rapidly declining productivity
and joblessness.
People are tired of handouts and being
made
to depend on a manipulative Mugabe. They want their lives back
and not these
self-serving gifts. Many Zimbabweans in the towns and rural
areas have come
to realise that Mugabe is the problem, not the solution. How
then can he
claim victory under these circumstances?
In this connection, it is
always important to remember that rigging is
not an event but a process that
has been unfolding for the past 10 years to
create an uneven playing field
for the opposition. Of course, the process
reaches its climax on polling
day, and more specifically in the counting of
the ballots. The announcement
by service chiefs that they will not accept
any result other than a Mugabe
victory is both a sign of panic in Mugabe’s
camp and an act of naked
intimidation. But the people are likely to
challenge this.
The last
minute decision to allow police into and around polling
stations under the
pretext of helping the old and infirm will be abused to
favour the
incumbent.
Only in January, Mugabe removed this piece of legislation as
a
concession during the President Mbeki-led negotiations. The fact that he
now
needs this shows how desperate he is to win.
To frustrate
opposition voters in the urban areas, Mugabe has ensured
there are fewer
polling stations compared to rural areas.
This will see a repeat of the
last presidential elections which saw
long queues and many urban voters
unable to cast their votes. He has ignored
opposition calls to rectify this.
And yet the rural voters might have a
surprise for him.
All we can
say is that the stage is set for the final showdown. All
the actors are in
place. The main actors are: “We the people against our
oppressor’’.
And this is a play that we have seen so often across Africa with the
oppressors or rulers standing in the way of change being humiliated.
Remember Kamuzu Banda of Malawi who failed to read the signs and was
humiliated at the polls, and the lovable Kenneth Kaunda. Oh and Polokwane of
course!
This has the look and feel of the end for Mugabe. The
people’s
yearning for freedom appears to be greater than any other force at
the
moment. If his bag of tricks helps him subvert the will of the people
then
this is certainly the beginning of the end.
One thing almost
certain is he will not win in the first round and
might be very lucky to
make it to the run-off. Apart from rigging the only
other thing on Mugabe’s
side is that Simba Makoni and Morgan Tsvangirai will
split the opposition
vote and let him back in by default.
Despite this, there is reason to
believe that the will of the people
will triumph over Mugabe’s wishes. It
would certainly be a disaster for
Zimbabwe if Mugabe stole the election
again. He simply has no capacity to
positively change the lives of
Zimbabweans.
Trevor Ncube is chairman of the Zimbabwe Independent and
Standard, and
CEO of the Mail & Guardian.
By Trevor
Ncube
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27
March 2008 22:09
DURING the countdown to the 2000 general election
President Robert
Mugabe told a rally in Bindura that people from Mbare were
totemless
elements of alien origin and mocked them for supporting the
opposition MDC.
Five years later, Mbare was the first residential
suburb to bear the
brunt of Operation Murambatsvina/Restore Order and just a
fortnight ago
Mugabe described one of his three challengers in tomorrow’s
presidential
election, Simba Makoni, as worse than a prostitute from the
same suburb.
“A prostitute from Mbare is better than Makoni because she
had regular
clients,” Mugabe said at a campaign rally in Mvurwi, Mashonaland
Central.
Mugabe will square up with Makoni, the MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai
and little-known independent candidate Langton Toungana.
Despite having a low opinion on people from Mbare, Mugabe was last
Saturday
in the township to drum up support from the same “totemless”
electorate at
Chashawasha Grounds, while Makoni had a rally in Chitungwiza
the previous
day and Tsvangirai had his on Sunday at Glamis grounds in the
capital.
The presidential, legislative and council elections
campaign entered
its last week last weekend with parties and independent
candidates lining up
numerous rallies throughout the country in a last
attempt to garner support
The real race, everybody believes, will be
the presidential election.
At Mugabe’s rally in Mbare, the party had to
use Zupco buses to ferry
people from neighbouring residential areas to beef
up the crowd. About 10
000 people had to wait in sweltering heat for
Mugabe’s arrival five hours
after the rally was scheduled to start.
Of importance to the electorate who gathered at the grounds was how if
Mugabe secures a sixth term would he solve the country’s economic crisis as
persistent water, electricity and transport problems haunt
urbanites.
However, when Mugabe took to the podium he repeated his now
customary
tirade against the opposition MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai,
Britain and the
few white people still in Zimbabwe.
The 84-year-old
Mugabe said the MDC was committing treason by
assisting former colonial
master Britain to effect a regime change.
“It is treasonous for the MDC
to continue to help the British so that
they have any influence here,” he
said before vowing that the opposition
would never rule Zimbabwe.
Mugabe said: “They want to rule this country. That will not happen as
long
as we are still alive, those of us who fought the liberation struggle,”
Mugabe said.
Mugabe threatened to take over British-owned companies
in retaliation
to targeted sanctions against his cabinet and senior Zanu PF
and government
officials.
“They want to deport sports people like
Benjani Mwaruwari yet they
have 400 companies here, but we didn’t take them.
After the election we are
going to do something,” Mugabe said.
Few
economists believe there are still 400 British companies operating
here.
Most put the figure at half that. Mugabe said that his government
would
implement in full the Indigenisation and Empowerment Act, which
require all
foreign-owned companies to cede 51 % ownership to blacks.
The president
accused business people of increasing prices of basic
commodities as a means
to frustrate the urban electorate so they vote for
the opposition.
“These companies are joking, they don’t know us. We ask them, are you
with
us or you are you working for someone else?” Mugabe asked.
He said the
companies have been getting “cheap” foreign currency from
the Reserve Bank
to import raw material and spares.
“The business people are lying to us
about the high cost of production
yet they are getting foreign currency from
the Reserve Bank in return for
them not to increase prices.”
Mugabe
said at the rally that the cantral bank had helped government
to acquire new
ambulances, generators and scanning machines for all major
hospitals in the
country.
He also presented 10 buses as part of the 35 buses donated by
government to Harare Province as part of the “People’s Buses” government
project. The generator project is called “The President’s Light”.
The RBZ was represented at the handover ceremony by Dr Millicent
Mombeshora,
a divisional chief and one of Governor Gideon Gono’s advisors.
The
president declined in his speech to address the issues of urban
poverty,
unemployment and poor service delivery, which are part and parcel
of the
daily lives of Mbare residents.
Unemployment is currently above 80%
while a substantial number of
urban people now depend on food aid
Large piles of stinking uncollected garbage which was evident at
Matapi
flats, a few metres from where Mugabe held his rally, are a clear
indication
of poor service delivery by the government.
At the Chitungwiza rally,
Makoni - who addressed close to 3 000
people – said Zimbabweans should vote
for him if Zimbabwe is to get out of
the economic woods.
He said
his opponents, Makoni and Tsvangirai, do not have plausible
manifestos to
extricate the country.
Makoni dismissed as a joke a promise by
Tsvangirai that his party
would bring normalcy to the country’s economy
within 100 days of being
elected to power.
“Those who promise that
things would become normal in 100 days after
they win are daydreaming,”
Makoni said. “Zimbabwe’s problems cannot be
resolved in such a short period
of time. We need a united Zimbabwe to work
together and find solutions to
our problems. Tsvangirai and Mugabe have no
capacity to do so.”
The
former Sadc executive secretary said Mugabe had played his part in
liberating the country in the first 15 years of Independence. He added that
Mugabe should retire to his Zvimba rural home.
“We are saying to Mr
Mugabe you have played your role. Your time is
up. You should retire and go
home to Zvimba and tell tales to your nephews,”
Makoni said amid
ululation.”
The ex-Finance minister said he had the support of most
Zimbabweans
and was not worried by Zanu PF claims that no bigwigs from the
ruling party
were behind him.
“Mr Mugabe and his party have gone
vulgar insulting me. Some are
challenging me to show them the bigwigs behind
me,” Makoni said. “Let me
make it clear, the bigwigs are the people of
Zimbabwe who thronged voter
registration centres after I announced my
presidential ambitions on February
5. The people of Zimbabwe yearning for
change are the bigwigs.”
He said he had support in the Zanu PF central
committee and politburo.
“Even in the MDC (Tsvangirai formation)
national executive I have
people backing the Dawn/Mavambo/Kusile project,”
Makoni said. “We are not
alone in the project as Mr Mugabe is
claiming.”
The former Zanu PF politburo member explained his policy on
land
reform and foreign policy.
He said if he wins he would
institute a land audit that would see
multiple farm owners evicted. He
categorically denied that he would return
the land to its former white
owners.
“The land belongs to Zimbabweans. We will make sure that the
land is
equitably distributed. There is no room for multiple farm owners and
lazy
farmers. We should ensure productivity on the land,” Makoni said. “In
the
early 1990s we used to feed ourselves, but we are now importing maize
from
countries like Malawi and Zambia. Is our government not ashamed of its
poor
policies that has reduced its citizens to beggars when they could feed
themselves 12 years ago?”
Tsvangirai’s rally on Sunday was attended
by close to 30 000 people.
He told his supporters about what his party
would do if it wins the
elections. Among the things he promised is the
restoration of the
impartiality of security institutions which he says have
become partisan in
seeking to protect Mugabe’s rule.
“Let me say to
the police, the civil service, the military and to the
CIO, you have nothing
to fear. We are going to be a government that will
respect national
institutions,” Tsvangirai said. “There are some people in
the civil service
who vow I will not be president of Zimbabwe. “I am not
imposing myself as
president. I am going to be elected by the mandate of the
people of
Zimbabwe. Therefore, any amount of threats, any amount of
intimidation and
any amount of threatening death will not be the issue.”
Tsvangirai
vowed his party would resist any attempts by Mugabe to rig
the
elections.
“We expect the enemies of justice to engage in every trick
in the
book,” he said. “We are ready for them; all of us. We are ready for
all
those who would like to subvert the people’s victory. We are ready for
all
those that would like to subvert the will of the people of
Zimbabwe.”
He said the threats by the country’s service chiefs to
block his
presidency was not the common position among all the security
forces.
“I have been assured that in spite of individual utterances by
individual members of the security forces, the army, the police and the CIO
are behind the people.”
The MDC last week alleged that the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission had
devised ways to rig the elections on behalf of
Mugabe. The party alleged
that ZEC had printed nine million ballot papers
when the country has 5,8
million registered voters. It also alleged that it
printed 600 000 postal
votes ballot papers when about 20 000 were expected
to vote through postal
voting.
By Constantine Chimakure and Lucia
Makamure
Zim Independent
Local
Thursday, 27
March 2008 22:06
The RBZ was represented at the handover ceremony by Dr
Millicent
Mombeshora, a divisional chief and one of Governor Gideon Gono’s
advisors.
The president declined in his speech to address the issues of
urban
poverty, unemployment and poor service delivery, which are part and
parcel
of the daily lives of Mbare residents.
Unemployment is
currently above 80% while a substantial number of
urban people now depend on
food aid
Large piles of stinking uncollected garbage which was evident
at
Matapi flats, a few metres from where Mugabe held his rally, are a clear
indication of poor service delivery by the government. At the Chitungwiza
rally, Makoni — who addressed close to 3 000 people — said Zimbabweans
should vote for him if Zimbabwe is to get out of the economic
woods.
He said his opponents, Makoni and Tsvangirai, do not have
plausible
manifestos to extricate the country.
Makoni dismissed as
a joke a promise by Tsvangirai that his party
would bring normalcy to the
country’s economy within 100 days of being
elected to power.
“Those
who promise that things would become normal in 100 days after
they win are
daydreaming,” Makoni said. “Zimbabwe’s problems cannot be
resolved in such a
short period of time. We need a united Zimbabwe to work
together and find
solutions to our problems. Tsvangirai and Mugabe have no
capacity to do
so.”
The former Sadc executive secretary said Mugabe had played his
part in
liberating the country in the first 15 years of Independence. He
added that
Mugabe should retire to his Zvimba rural home.
“We are
saying to Mr Mugabe you have played your role. Your time is
up. You should
retire and go home to Zvimba and tell tales to your nephews,”
Makoni said
amid ululation.”
The ex-Finance minister said he had the support of
most Zimbabweans
and was not worried by Zanu PF claims that no bigwigs from
the ruling party
were behind him.
“Mr Mugabe and his party have
gone vulgar insulting me. Some are
challenging me to show them the bigwigs
behind me,” Makoni said. “Let me
make it clear, the bigwigs are the people
of Zimbabwe who thronged voter
registration centres after I announced my
presidential ambitions on February
5. The people of Zimbabwe yearning for
change are the bigwigs.”
He said he had support in the Zanu PF central
committee and politburo.
“Even in the MDC (Tsvangirai formation)
national executive I have
people backing the Dawn/Mavambo/Kusile project,”
Makoni said. “We are not
alone in the project as Mr Mugabe is
claiming.”
The former Zanu PF politburo member explained his policy on
land
reform and foreign policy. He said if he wins he would institute a land
audit that would see multiple farm owners evicted. He categorically denied
that he would return the land to its former white owners.
“The land
belongs to Zimbabweans. We will make sure that the land is
equitably
distributed. There is no room for multiple farm owners and lazy
farmers. We
should ensure productivity on the land,” Makoni said. “In the
early 1990s we
used to feed ourselves, but we are now importing maize from
countries like
Malawi and Zambia. Is our government not ashamed of its poor
policies that
has reduced its citizens to beggars when they could feed
themselves 12 years
ago?”
Tsvangirai’s rally on Sunday was attended by close to 30 000
people.
He told his supporters about what his party would do if it wins the
elections. Among the things he promised is the restoration of the
impartiality of security institutions which he says have become partisan in
seeking to protect Mugabe’s rule.
“Let me say to the police, the
civil service, the military and to the
CIO, you have nothing to fear. We are
going to be a government that will
respect national institutions,”
Tsvangirai said. “There are some people in
the civil service who vow I will
not be president of Zimbabwe. “I am not
imposing myself as president. I am
going to be elected by the mandate of the
people of Zimbabwe. Therefore, any
amount of threats, any amount of
intimidation and any amount of threatening
death will not be the issue.”
Tsvangirai vowed his party would resist
any attempts by Mugabe to rig
the elections.
“We expect the
enemies of justice to engage in every trick in the
book,” he said. “We are
ready for them; all of us. We are ready for all
those who would like to
subvert the people’s victory. We are ready for all
those that would like to
subvert the will of the people of Zimbabwe.”
He said the threats by
the country’s service chiefs to block his
presidency was not the common
position among all the security forces.
“I have been assured that in
spite of individual utterances by
individual members of the security forces,
the army, the police and the CIO
are behind the people.”
The MDC
last week alleged that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission had
devised ways to
rig the elections on behalf of Mugabe. The party alleged
that ZEC had
printed nine million ballot papers when the country has 5,8
million
registered voters. It also alleged that it printed 600 000 postal
ballot
papers when only 20 000 were expected to vote through postal voting.
But the
ZEC claims it needs the extra ballot papers to address unexpected
shortages
on polling day.
Zim Independent
Business
Thursday, 27 March 2008 22:03
BANKS are in trouble after the Reserve
Bank of Zimbabwe this week made
a U-turn on measures it introduced to save
the sector from collapse after
the liquidity crisis that hit the country two
months ago.
The central bank told financial institutions on Tuesday
night that
overnight accommodation rates had been hiked from 1 200%
to
4 000% for secured lending while unsecured lending rates were raised
from 1 650% to 4 500%.
The punitive rates are meant to mop up
excess liquidity which
saw the market having an average surplus of $1
quadrillion over the
past seven days.
The measures spell disaster
for a sector that has been in turmoil
since the beginning of the year,
according to economists.
There are fears that there will be a liquidity
crunch soon after the
elections.
The RBZ also pushed statutory
reserve ratios back to 50% barely two
months after they were reduced in the
first quarter monetary policy to 40%
to allow banks some breathing space
after a disastrous three months in the
banking sector.
The central
bank also accused banks of deliberately accumulating
surplus.
“All
this liquidity lying idle on the banks’ positions could have been
channelled
towards funding of productive activity in the economy,” said the
central
bank in a circular to banks.
“With immediate effect, the holding period
for the liquidity
management bonds has been adjusted upwards, from the
current seven days to
three months.”
Analysts say the new measures
would put banks under pressure.
“Banks will be in a crisis. The excess
liquidity was buoyed by huge
increases in government and electioneering
expenditure which we expect to
end this week,” said Witness Chinyama,
Kingdom Bank economist.
“The post-election period is likely to coincide
with a reduction of
government expenditure and the onset of a liquidity
crunch of great
magnitude.”
The turmoil in the sector has hurt both
the banks and clients who have
been forced to endure several hours queuing
for cash.
The money market surplus hit $1,5 quadrillion on Thursday
last week,
and averaged $1 quadrillion this week before the new monetary
measures.
However, the surplus dropped to $559 trillion after the RBZ
measures
were introduced.
Building societies, with poor records in
the high-density housing
cooperative schemes, will be levied statutory
reserves of 40%, up from 10%.
In his last monetary policy presented in
January Reserve Bank governor
Gideon Gono said the bank had no appetite to
inject inflationary liquidity
into the system through the accommodation
window.
“In order to promote discipline in the banking sector’s
assets-liabilities management regimes, all interest for previous
accommodations have to be paid in full prior to any new borrowings or
rollovers of past loans,” Gono said.
The new monetary measures and
the raising of maximum withdrawal limits
would fasten the liquidity crunch
soon after the elections, Chinyama said.
The central bank plans to
review the maximum withdrawal limit from
$500 million to $4 billion with
effect from April 4.
Chinyama said cash movement would be one-way
because the negative real
interest rates will force depositors to withdraw
their cash as soon as the
limit is hiked.
“Unless interest rates
become very attractive prompting clients to
hold their money with banks,
banks will be heavily stressed,” he said.
University of Zimbabwe
economist, Professor Tony Hawkins said the new
measures were an admission of
guilt by the Reserve Bank that it has injected
excessive liquidity into the
economy.
“It is an admission that they injected too much money
financing vote
expenditure, vote buying and civil servants salaries. They
are now trying to
avert an almight explosion soon after the elections. Banks
will be
squeezed,” said Hawkins.
Hawkins said banks would fail to
honour their obligations if the
Reserve Bank does not intervene soon after
the elections.
He accused the central bank of implementing inconsistent
policies that
have damaged the financial sector.
“That is the way
the Reserve Bank operates, no steady path at all.
They lurch from one
extreme to another. They are experts at engineering
inconsistency. Every
move they have made in the past six months has created
extreme volatility in
the markets,” he said.
Zimbabwe Allied Banking Group economist,
Newatiwa Mudzingwa, said the
combination of measures introduced by banks
would kill all corporate and
individual borrowings.
“The cost of
borrowing will go up. To avoid the RBZ’s punitive rates,
the sector may be
forced to depend on inter-bank borrowing at rates of
around 3 000%. It means
none will be able to borrow or have an appetite to
do so,” Mudzingwa
said.
Statutory reserves time deposits and buybacks were increased from
35%
to 50%. Merchant banks will pay 50% on call deposits while statutory
reserves for discount houses were upped from 35% to 50%.
The new
measures, if left unchanged after the elections, will mean
more trouble for
the banking sector which has been advised by the central
bank of the
decision to suspend and wind down concessionary interest rate
facilities on
June 30 this year.
The RBZ intends to suspend the Basic Commodities
Supply Side
Intervention facility while it winds down the Agricultural
Support
Productivity Enhancement Facility.
The sector fears that
the RBZ will garnish accounts of banks with
outstanding amounts on the cheap
fund.
This would force banks to borrow under the punitive overnight
accommodation rates.
Kuda Chakwanda and Paul Nyakazeya
Zim Independent
Business
Thursday, 27 March 2008 21:59
“WE are two very good
tailors and after many years of research we have
invented an extraordinary
method of weaving a cloth so light and fine that
it looks
invisible.
As a matter of fact it is invisible to anyone who is too
stupid and
incompetent to appreciate its quality.” The captioned passage is
derived
from a popular fairy tale; Emperor’s New Clothes.
It would
appear that after roughly ten years or so Zimbabwean
entities, in a snake
like manner, shed their old skins and grow new ones.
The technical or
marketing term for such an exercise is re-branding.
In the past two
years, a number of companies, particularly banks, have
undergone an identity
transformation. In some instances it involved newer
Vision & Mission
Statements, payoff lines and re-fashioned logos, whilst in
other instances a
name change was also undertaken.
Finhold changed its name and all
collateral to ZB. All its
subsidiaries, including the Intermarket Group,
followed suit. FBCH, CBZH and
Kingdom also undertook similar
exercises.
Another ZSE-listed company that has been recently re-branded
is Circle
Cement, now known as Larfage Cement.
This new name
reflects the majority ownership and control of the
company which is held by
the Lafarge Group of France.
Zimsun Ltd, which is now seeking to
fulfill its dream of being a
pan-African hotel management group, sought and
was recently granted
shareholder approval to change the name of the company
to African Sun Ltd.
The rationale was that the new name appropriately
captures the African
dream which started off with acquisition of the The
Grace Hotel in Rosebank
in South Africa a couple of years back. The dream is
now turning into a
reality.
Next was FML, which formally changed
its name to Afre Corporation.
Afre is the short version of the name. In full
it reads as Africa First
ReNaissance.
The new identity besides
showing that Africa is beckoning also
highlights ReNaissance Financial
Holdings’ control of the financial services
group.
Why do
Zimbabwean companies feel the need for new clothes every now
and then? For
those aspiring to conquer Africa, the “Zim” part of the name
is regarded as
extra baggage that makes maneuvering difficult.
Many pioneers,
particularly the old Finhold which ventured into
Botswana with the Zimbank
brand, will attest to this fact.
Even ABCH, which does not have a
‘Zimbabwe’ in its name, still
apportions a fair amount of their lucklustre
showing in Zambia to the
“Zimbabwe Effect”.
Consequently most
entities stepping into the region are doing so,
after shedding the Zim in
their names or taking up new ones altogether.
For instance, ZSR
Corporation bought new clothes labeled as StarAfrica
as it set its sights
firmly on establishing its ‘star foot print’ in Africa.
However, for
local shareholders the make-over does not immediately
imply a change in the
performance of the companies.
In fact, most of the things associated
with the companies like
reputation, business operations and management,
besides business cards
hardly change.
More like an old wine in a
new bottle type of scenario and perhaps
just as fruitless as the more normal
reverse of this situation is said to
be.
This week we look at the
12 months to December 31, 2007 financials of
FML, now in a new frock as
Afre.
Total income amounted to $363,9 trillion, representing a 189
348%
growth from the prior year. Firmly buttressing this performance was a
195
200% increase in investment income at $362 trillion.
Other
income streams recorded rather unimpressive growth, with the
core net
written premium of $1,3 trillion having grown by a paltry 30 533%.
Actuarial income of $75,7 billion was 145 658% higher than the $52
million
attained in 2007.
Profits after tax of $301 trillion were realized with
policyholders
laying claim to $194 trillion, leaving shareholders with $71
trillion after
stripping out minorities.
Of the $71 trillion, $6,6
trillion was derived from operations; $48,1
trillion was in the form of
unrealized gains from equities and $16,6
trillion from gains on property
investments.
Going forward, the group plans on attaining its pan
African vision by
using African Actuarial Consultants as the
trailblazer.
Currently, the unit is working on mandates from the Zambia
State
Insurance and the Professional Insurance of Malawi.
This
regional adventure story line is not new.
It has been peddled since
listing in 2003. That said, however, we have
to give the new team now
steering the Afre ship the benefit of the doubt.
Zim Independent
Business
Thursday, 27 March 2008 21:57
THE possibility of
mayhem in business in the event of a victory by
incumbent President Robert
Mugabe in tomorrow’s election looks almost
certain with the economy already
showing signs of further meltdown.
Economists have warned the
possibility of a severe crisis if Mugabe
wins the elections.
Prices
have been rising steeply in the past two weeks as inflation
continues to
skyrocket. Prices of basic commodities have increased by an
average 240% in
the past two weeks.
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) continued to
suffer heavy losses for
the second week in a row ahead of the
elections.
A lot of businesses have shut down in the run-up to the
elections with
some companies indicating that their opening will depend on
the outcome of
the poll results.
The Zimbabwean dollar this week
continued with its dramatic drop
against major currencies. Confidence in the
business sector is at its lowest
levels following Mugabe’s threat that he
will crack down on businesses that
overcharge and take over 400
British-owned companies after the elections.
Economic commentator Eric
Bloch said it was highly likely that most
mining and manufacturing
businesses would not re-open unless radical changes
are implemented by
Mugabe upon being re-elected.
“On the basis of his track record, such
radical changes would not
occur,” Bloch said.
The ZSE has been
losing an average of between 5-8% daily in the past
10 working days as fears
heightened of another five years under Mugabe’s
rule.
The fears
have heightened on speculation that the elections are likely
to be
rigged.
“The ZSE is very volatile. It reacts to news of a looming price
blitz,
what more of news of a Mugabe victory and another five years of bad
policy
making, deep-rooted suspicions and conspiracies that only hurt the
market?”
said one Harare-based economist.
Stock market investors
off-loaded their shares and raked in their
profits in the longest bear run
recorded on the local bourse this year.
Investors are now holding on to
foreign local currency or investing in other
non-volatile investment
destinations such as real estate.
Other investors opted to liquidate
shares they held in other volatile
counters to opt for more stable counters
like Old Mutual and PPC.
Production also hit rock bottom this week with
industry sources saying
it had declined to below 5% as many businesses shut
down and adopted a “wait
and see” attitude in the wake of new threats by a
Mugabe of a government
takeover made against business.
The signs of
trouble are already showing. Expert estimates show that
Zimbabwe’s gold
production will drop to three tonnes this year. The Chambers
of Mines has
said Zimbabwe has an installed capacity to produce 125 tonnes
of gold
annually.
The exporting sector is already bleeding after the central
bank failed
to release their foreign currency.
University of
Zimbabwe economist Professor Tony Hawkins said Mugabe’s
victory would
prolong economic ills which are already characterised by
hyperinflation,
negative real interest rates, an overvalued exchange rate
and a very high
budget deficit.
Hawkins said inflation was likely to reach 500 000%
adding that
history has shown clearly that Mugabe is not capable of reviving
the economy
which has slumped by 60% over the past decade.
“He will
be forced into leaving,” Hawkins said.
“If he wins, the economic will
be in deeper trouble than it is now. An
international rescue package will be
required and those offering it will not
negotiate with him. The price of
such a rescue package is his leaving.”
Bloch said if Mugabe is
re-elected but failed to implement radical
changes, he would find himself
hounded out of office.
“Although Zimbabweans are very peaceful and a
revolution is not the
way forward, if things do not change, it is almost
certain that a revolution
will occur in the near future.”
Mugabe
went on the offensive this week threatening to take over
British-owned
companies.
This further entrenched the widely held view in the
international
market that Zimbabwe was not an investor-friendly
destination.
Analysts say that statement coupled with the new
Indigenisation and
Economic Empowerment Act will make it impossible for
Zimbabwe to get foreign
direct investment especially if Mugabe remains in
power.
Consumers are feeling the effects of a further reduction in
production
through steep price hikes by retailers.
In just one
week, the price of 750 ml of cooking oil shot up from $80
million to $125
million a litre, while fuel rose from $52 million to $56
million a
litre.
Two litres of Mazoe Orange Crush increased from $30 million to
$80
million while a 2-kg of dressed chicken rose from $80 million to $170
million.
Transport fares went up from $15 million to $20 million
and then $30
million in less than a week. Mugabe’s government has presided
over 10 years
of consecutive economic decline due to poor policy making and
inconsistent
policies which have scared off investors.
The dearth
of foreign investment has compounded the crisis in an
economy. Instead of
reforming, Mugabe has become more reactive by putting in
place price
controls. This has caused company closures.
John Robertson, an
independent economist, said Mugabe’s attempts to
control market forces and
commandeer the economy were similar to attempts to
control gravity adding
that no government in the world was strong enough to
control market
forces.
“Trying to control market forces is like trying to control
gravity.
The market serves those who respect it and it hurts those who
oppose it,”
Robertson said.
“If you respect gravity, you won’t get
hurt. If you don’t respect it
and jump out of the window, you will get hurt.
Understand market forces so
they work for you, like gravity, instead of
against you. Mugabe believes he
can control them though, it’s
tragic.”
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) this week announced new
policy
measures that are likely to cause more problems for the
banks.
The measures which included raising accommodation rates and
statutory
reserve requirements for banks were made after the market surplus
hit one
quadrillion dollars.
This followed an astronomical increase
in money supply last week to
cover salary increments for civil
servants.
The bulk of the money was printed to fund the election
expenses and
the farm mechanisation programme which analysts have attacked
as vote
buying.
“Mugabe has tremendous and damaging influence on
people like (RBZ
governor Gideon) Gono who wanted to devalue and to run the
economy with very
little intervention,” Robertson said.
“Mugabe
tells him to print money and not to devalue and he has to
follow
instructions if he wants to keep his job.”
The RBZ, credited with
printing large sums of money to fund recurrent
government expenditure
remains mum on the latest money supply figures.
However, market surplus
doubled from $429 trillion to $950 trillion
signalling a very dangerous
position that could stoke hyperinflation to
higher levels.
The
situation was enough reason for the central bank to panic. On
Tuesday last
week, when the market surplus figure hit $950 trillion, the RBZ
could get
investments worth only $3,2 trillion — a figure representing 0,3%
of excess
liquidity. The domestic debt surged to $1,6 quadrillion.
By Kuda
Chikwanda
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 21:00
THE enactment by
President Robert Mugabe of Statutory Instrument No 46
of 2008 being the
Presidential Powers (Temporary Measures) (Amendment of the
Electoral Act)
regulations of 2008 summarises everything that is wrong with
this weekend’s
election in particular and Zimbabwe in general.
The above
regulations seek to amend Sections 55, 59 and 60 of the
Electoral Act
Chapter 2:13 as amended by the Electoral Laws Act Amendment No
17 of
2007.
Amendment No17 to the Electoral Act, which became law on January
11,
was a piece of law negotiated between the MDC and Zanu PF during the
Sadc-sponsored talks facilitated by President Thabo Mbeki.
That
piece of legislation was agreed to and signed by the parties in
Pretoria on
October 30 2007 and presented to Sadc through Mbeki on the very
same
day.
Before the Sadc dialogue, the law allowed policeman and members of
the
defence forces to assist the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and
most
importantly allowed policemen to be present at any polling station.
Further,
in terms of section 59 and 60, the presence of the police was
required when
an official assisted a physically incapacitated
voter.
During the Sadc negotiations, the MDC’s position was that the
police
had been abused and used systematically to generate intimidation and
threats.
What Mugabe has therefore done in the above regulation is
to bring
back the old order and allow police officers back into polling
stations but
most importantly allowed incapacitated voters to vote in the
presence of
police officers.
Quite clearly, the re-enactment of the
old law confirms the presence
of the mischief that we had dealt with in the
Sadc dialogue. The mischief
being that police are indeed used as a weapon of
intimidation in the Zanu PF
power retention agenda.
Secondly, it is
unacceptable that Mugabe, a participant in this
election, can change the
rules of the game when the game is being played.
Thirdly, sight must
not be lost of the fact that it was parliament
that enacted the new law on
December 20. For Mugabe to place himself above
parliament and bulldoze his
way, as he has always done, reflects the
sickness of this
establishment.
How can one man be above the law and play god with all
of us? This
election represents a turning point for Zimbabwe. Mugabe has no
right to
privatise the same and treat this nation as Zimbabwe (Pvt)
Ltd.
In our view, Mugabe’s regulations are unlawful in that he has
usurped
the laws of ZEC under section 192 of the Electoral Act. Over and
above,
Mugabe’s appetite for making presidential decrees is unacceptable as
it is a
clear breach of the rule of law.
By Tendai
Biti
Tendai Biti is MDC secretary-general.
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 20:09
I WAS interested to see
the “leaked results” of the Mass Public
Opinion Institute (MPOI) survey
regarding who would win this weekend’s
presidential election.
My scepticism of the survey results published on Studio 7 and in the
Zimbabwe Independent recently is based on the fact that in 2005 the MPOI
conducted a survey and then kept the result secret “because some of your top
people didn’t like it”, in the words of Professor Eldred Masunungure,
director of MPOI.
The survey conducted then was a snap survey in
Harare on the issue of
the senate election. The survey was taken in
September 2005, one month
before the disastrous split of the MDC over this
issue.
Masunungure told me that some 75% of respondents in Harare were
in
favour of participating in the senate election, and that this is what
“some
of your top people” were not happy about.
The MPOI therefore
suppressed that result, and the entire world was
allowed to come under the
impression that Zimbabweans as a whole rejected
the senate project. This
impression was false — and Morgan Tsvangirai’s
sudden volte face in August
to reject anything to do with the senate was
publicly supported by the
MPOI’s silence on its findings.
So now we have the MPOI declaring that
Tsvangirai will win the
presidential election, with Mugabe coming second and
Makoni third, while
over 30% of voters still keep their vote their
secret.
Since more than 30% of respondents would not say which
presidential
candidate they would vote for, I do not believe this poll to be
a very
reliable indicator of the actual election result. Was it leaked to
campaign
for Tsvangirai?
By Trudy Stevenson
Stevenson
is the MDC’s outgoing Harare North MP.
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 19:51
THE Matabeleland region
will decide the country’s next leader in
tomorrow’s polls where Morgan
Tsvangirai of the MDC and independent
candidate Simba Makoni are challenging
incumbent President Robert Mugabe,
analysts have said.
Mugabe
and his ruling Zanu PF were earlier this year poised to cruise
to an easy
victory against a divided MDC, but the entry of Makoni into the
presidential
race on February 5 changed the expected outcome of the polls.
Analysts
argued that Makoni has since gained significant support in
urban areas where
the elite is strongly rooting for him, while Tsvangirai
had made inroads in
rural areas were traditionally Mugabe and Zanu
PF-dominated.
Makoni, the analysts said, received a major boost earlier this month
when
former Zapu intelligence supremo and politburo member Dumiso Dabengwa
broke
ranks with Mugabe to join his camp.
But as the struggle to win votes by
the three top presidential
candidates rages on, Matabeleland has emerged as
a deciding factor for the
crucial election, as whoever wins in the three
provinces in the region is
likely to occupy Zimbabwe House.
The
analysts, however, said anyone between Mugabe, Makoni and
Tsvangirai who
wins Matabeleland, should also garner substantial support
from other regions
of the country.
The electorate in Matabeleland has always voted en
masse for one party
since Independence in 1980. The region voted for PF-Zapu
in 1980 and 1985
and changed allegiance to the MDC in 2000.
Gwanda-based analyst, Themba Nxumalo, said Matabeleland by virtue of
always
voting en bloc would decide the next president.
“The candidates will
split the votes countrywide and the winner will
be decided by the
Matabeleland vote and this time around the region will
become the
kingmaker,” Nxumalo said.
He said indicators were pointing to a Makoni
victory. Presidential
contestant in 2002, Paul Siwela, said the Matabeleland
vote was likely to be
won by Makoni, but was quick to add that the former
Sadc executive secretary
did not enjoy much support from other provinces,
including Manicaland where
he hails from.
“It is not true that
Matabeleland will decide the outcome of the whole
election, but as things
stand Makoni will lead in Matabeleland. However,
that vote will not count
for much,” Siwela said.
He said if any of the three candidates won a
third of the total votes
cast in other provinces, Matabeleland would then
decide the outcome.
Ernest Mudzengi, the national director of the
National Constitutional
Assembly (NCA), said it was a fallacy that Makoni
would win outrightly in
Matabeleland and suggested that the region would be
bitterly contested by
the former Finance minister and Tsvangirai.
“It will not be true to say one candidate will easily win in
Matabeleland,
but the elections will be heavily contested and there is no
one candidate
who will get an absolute majority,” Mudzengi postulated.
“Whoever wins will
win by a small margin and that will be insignificant to
the whole national
picture.”
Mudzengi tipped Tsvangirai to win the presidential polls if
they were
free and fair.
Bulawayo-based political activist Gorden
Moyo said Matabeleland was
not a deciding factor and will only play an
endorsing role for the new
president.
Moyo is the director of
Bulawayo Agenda, a think-tank.
“Matabeleland does not decide an
election but only blesses a leader,”
Moyo said. “If Matabeleland had the
power of deciding an election,
Tsvangirai would be the president of Zimbabwe
as he won almost everything in
Matabeleland (in 2000). The region only
blesses an election.”
He added that the Matabeleland region had few
voters compared to other
parts of the country. He said votes from the region
would be divided between
Tsvangirai and Makoni.
Moyo, however, said
Tsvangirai would win more votes nationally than
Makoni.
“The mood
in Matabeleland has changed. Makoni will win crucial votes
in Matabeleland,
but still he will come out a distant third in the whole
national picture as
Mugabe will win the majority of the votes followed by
Tsvangirai,” Moyo
predicted.
“What has happened is that Tsvangirai’s image in
Matabeleland has been
damaged by the (Arthur) Mutambara faction in the
region over the failed
unity talks.”
The three Matabeleland
provinces have 1,1 million voters out of 5,9
million..
Bulawayo has
313 459 voters, Matabeleland North 345 264 while
Matabeleland South has 342
280 voters. The three presidential contestants
have in the last two weeks
been campaigning heavily in the region.
First to come to the region was
Makoni who addressed a crowd of about
4 000 enthusiastic supporters to whom
he promised a new beginning and
focused on the marginalisation of the
region.
Tsvangirai was the second presidential candidate to visit the
region
and promised the people that he would set up a Gukurahundi Fund to
mitigate
the effects of the 1980s government-engineered atrocities against
civilians.
This week, Mugabe was in Bulawayo and addressed a rally at
Stanley Square
where he invoked the late Vice-president Joshua Nkomo’s name
and said the
people of the region should vote for Zanu PF to protect the
1987 Unity
Accord.
He claimed that his government has purchased 400
new cars to be
distributed to doctors throughout the country to alleviate
their transport
problems.
At the rally, Mugabe also revealed that
the government had
substantially increased salaries for nurses and doctors
after negotiations.
Mugabe took a swipe at Tsvangirai and vowed that he
would never rule
the country.
“Tsvangirai will never, never, ever
rule this country and those that
are voting for Tsvangirai are wasting their
vote, it’s a waste of time
voting for Tsvangirai and come March 29 we (Zanu
PF) will emerge
victorious,” Mugabe said, waving his fist in the air, amid
ululation from
the crowd.
Mugabe also took a swipe at the MDC and
said the British were using
the party.
“The MDC has recalled whites
who were in South Africa to come and
contest the Umguza constituency. Don’t
they have any black person who can
contest apart from Joubert and Goosen?”
said Mugabe drawing laughter.
The two MDC factions are fielding white
candidates in Bubi
constituency. David Joubert represents the Tsvangirai
faction in the
constituency while Alex Goosen represents the Mutambara
faction. Mugabe said
Zanu PF was in trouble in Marondera constituency where
another white was
causing havoc.
“We are getting reports from our
people in Marondera who are in
trouble with another MDC white man, Ian Kay,
who speaks fluent Shona and our
people are saying he is using money to buy
votes,” the president alleged.
By Loughty Dube
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 19:45
WHEN he was forewarned
by the seer to “beware the Ides of March”,
Julius Caesar, the Roman ruler,
did not take it seriously.
Indeed, when the Ides of March did
arrive, Caesar said to the seer in
jest that the Ides of March had come,
implying that contrary to his warning,
nothing had happened.
The
seer acknowledged that the Ides of March had indeed come but he
still warned
that they had not gone yet.
And, sure enough, later that day, the Roman
general met his end at the
hands of Brutus and Cassius.
Ever since,
the Ides of March, an otherwise ordinary expression
signifying the 15th day
of March, has carried an ominous meaning.
For most, it is an expression
that has come to signify impending doom
during the month of March.
President Robert Mugabe must, surely, wonder whether March 29
represents the
modern day version of the Ides of March as he faces the
sternest challenge
to his long reign by adversaries in Morgan Tsvangirai and
Simba
Makoni.
It is difficult to comprehend what, if anything, would be
served by
giving Mugabe another term of office.
For a man who was
once great, is this not the case of one step too
far? It is a shot at the
title that he did not have to take.
After 28 years, the aggregate of
which has produced mass poverty and
despair, it requires more than a stretch
of the imagination as to what
exactly he can achieve in the next five
years.
Those of us who follow the oldest of sports, the sweet science,
know
that, perhaps, the greatest weakness of any fighter is the inability to
acknowledge when to hang the gloves.
Few of the greatest boxers
have been able to retire in their prime.
Instead, they have pushed on, well
beyond their finest days. And they have
suffered for it.
Somehow,
the old game has a force of attraction that perhaps can only
be truly
appreciated by those few men who have the courage to step into the
ring.
Perhaps it is the money.
Perhaps it is just the love
of this oldest of games.
Perhaps it is just the yearning for the
spotlight which retirement
seems to wipe off once they are out of the
ring.
Perhaps they just cannot bear watching the younger fighters
hogging
the limelight which they once enjoyed in abundance during their
prime.
But all too often, when they fail to heed the call of
retirement, and
step into the ring, they bring tears to our eyes.
The spectacle is too painful to the eye: watching the tired, haggard
and
diminished warriors — mere shadows of their former selves. It is, too
often,
a pitiful sight.
They saw it that October night in 1980 when the man
universally
acknowledged as The Greatest, Muhammad Ali, succumbed, in his
twilight
years, to a young and fitter Larry Holmes, himself a former trainee
who
idolised The Greatest.
It is said that Holmes might not have
fought the man he had idolised
for years — he would not have wished to
exploit what were clear weaknesses
in an ageing master of the
ring.
But the lure of the big fight, the lure of money and most of all
the
undying ambition of The Greatest to relive the glory days and make
history
conspired to make the fight.
Those of us who idolise Ali
would not have wished him the punishment
he received that October
night.
Those who witnessed the fight say, at some stage, even Holmes
eventually reduced the tempo to avoid further damage to his old
master.
In Round 11, the battle was stopped, much to the relief of
those
watching, who, it is said, could hardly bear witnessing the sad demise
of
man they all called The Greatest.
Ali didn’t have to take that
fight — he was already the greatest in
many eyes. But he, too, fell for the
lure of the final shot at glory.
But The Greatest was not the first and
certainly not the last of the
brave men that trade leather to fail that
test.
His old nemesis, George Foreman, made a comeback at age
45.
Another great warrior, Evander Holyfield, is still fighting, well
into
his 40s, against many of his admirers’ wishes.
We winced
recently when news broke that Holyfield and that other
great, Mike Tyson,
intend to fight again.
Why, we ask? Perhaps, it is the money.
But surely, this is a battle of old warriors that no-one seriously
wants.
They ought to know, as most fans do, that their finest days are
behind them
and they have nothing more to offer.
And that too has an uncanny
resemblance to the old warrior of
Zimbabwean politics.
It is too
sad, way too terrible, to witness the demise of the old
master, Robert
Mugabe, still lumbering in the ring — a clear failure to
resist the lure of
the last big fight.
His main opponents are young, fit and popular. Both
once idolised
Mugabe during his prime.
They once sat in his corner
and admired him, hoping one day they would
step into his boots. They never
thought they would have to fight him. They
probably would not have wished to
fight him.
But the old warrior is too overwhelmed by that spirit that
fighters
find hard to resist — an attempt, perhaps, to recapture the glory
days.
There is nothing more that Mugabe can offer. He might boast the
stamina that men of his age can, at best, vaguely remember.
But,
listening to him, even the voice is slow, tired and betrays a
tortured soul.
Not even the memories of a glorious past can put a veil on
the disaster
around him.
This is a fighter who, like the great Ali, needed an honest
corner-man
to throw in the towel to save him from further punishment and
humiliation.
This is the pugilist who requires realistic advisers to tell
him there was
nothing more he can offer.
But they have either been
silent or screaming hysterically in his
defence — you have to wonder if they
are not selfishly pushing him for
further humiliation.
Because, you
see, even if he “wins” by some technicality it has become
apparent that the
best days are behind him.
For, if nothing else, the economy itself is
the greatest voter here;
the biggest voice of them all. Clearly, it is
saying “no more”; it is saying
“no, Robert, there is nothing more you can do
to make me better”.
In politics, as in boxing, the lure of another
great fight can be too
powerful to resist. But the ability to know when to
give up is a necessary
part of self-preservation.
As Mugabe goes
into the election, we cannot help but visualise the
old, tired warrior
taking unnecessary punishment from his adversaries.
But then, you pause
and remember that there is always the danger — the
risk of what a
beleaguered fighter might do in that ring.
We saw it on that night of
June 28 1997, when Tyson, himself a former
great, resorted to raw
animalistic behaviour, when he bit Holyfield’s ear.
Yes, when the going
gets tough, as it surely is for Mugabe, the old
warrior could yet get very
nasty.
That would be sad but the use of extra-legal methods will hardly
be a
surprise, given that the old fighter really finds himself in a very
difficult position at the moment.
And here, the external referees
will have to call time. They will have
to show that the
old warrior
cannot get away with such behaviour.
l Dr Alex Magaisa is based at the
University of Kent Law School and
can be contacted at wamagaisa@yahoo.co.ukThis e-mail
address is being
protected from spambots, you need JavaScript enabled to
view it or
a.t.magaisa@kent.ac.uk
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 19:40
THERE are a few visible
parallels between the March 29, 2008 election
and that of 1980 which ushered
Zanu PF into power.
The UANC led by Abel Muzorewa had been in
office and was enjoying
considerable support in the urban centres. They
confidently held
the-mother-of-all rallies at Zimbabwe’s ceremonial home of
politics in
Highfield.The four-day gathering was dubbed the Huruyadzo Rally.
Translated,
huruyadzo means “the biggest of them all” which was Abel
Muzorewa’s slogan.
The rally rightly lasted four days. All the boys born
during the four days
at the rally were named either Abel or Tendekai or
both, Abel Tendekai being
the Bishop’s first names and the super patriots
being what they are named
their sons Abel Tendekai Muzorewa as the first
three names. Girls were
dutifully named Janet, The First Lady’s
name.
For those living in towns, it was beyond imagination that the
Bishop
would lose an election to guerilla leader Robert Mugabe. The little
bit they
knew about the guerilla leader was negative information broadcast
on
national radio and television.
There were special programmes
like “Umwe Anoti” on the vernacular
radio station whose purpose was to
portray Mugabe as a communist terrorist
who had no respect for the rule of
law and as such would just take the
country back to the Dark Ages. In
response to all this Mugabe said he was
unmoved by that criticism and was
quite aware of the misinformation being
spread amongst Zimbabweans. He
however said he was confident that one day
the world would know the truth
about him and the war of attrition that Zanla
and Zipra were waging against
Ian Smith.
True to the guerilla leader’s prediction, Zanu PF polled 56,
PF Zapu
(Joshua Nkomo) 20, UANC (Abel Muzorewa) 3 and Zanu Ndonga
(Ndabaningi
Sithole) 1. That was 70%, 25%, 3,75% and, 25% respectively.
Someone within
the rank and file of UANC should have been kind enough to
tell the Bishop
that he was way past his shelf life and that it was time for
the liberation
movements to usher in a new political dispensation.
Interestingly history is on the verge of repeating itself. Morgan
Tvsangirai
has since 1999 been in the trenches of opposition politics
telling
Zimbabweans not to worry about the falsehoods being spread about him
and his
party. He has had no access to either radio or television which are
both
government controlled. Simba Makoni is telling Zimbabweans the same
about
himself and the Mavambo initiative. Both men have left President
Mugabe and
Zanu PF to say what they have to say about the opposition, March
29 will set
the record straight. In 2000, who in Zimbabwe except maybe
Tsvangirai
himself and a handful of faithfuls would have imagined that a
party formed
barely half a year earlier would almost beat Zanu PF a party
that had been
in existence since 1963.
The Zanu PF party manifesto — of potholes,
empty supermarket shelves,
inflation upwards of 150 000%, 90% unemployment,
a shrinking foreign
investment base, dereliction on once highly productive
farms, a population
of over three million disenfranchised Zimbabweans living
in the Diaspora —
has gifted the opposition all the support they currently
enjoy. If the
police should want to arrest anyone for wanting to “donate”
the country back
to the whites as President Mugabe says, they should arrest
the runaway
inflation, the non performing parastatals and the corruptly
cancerous RBZ.
Forget Morgan and Simba, forget Gordon and George.
President Mugabe’s
number one enemy is the country’s state of the economy as
carefully authored
by successive archaic and narrow minded policies deeply
rooted in the Zanu
PF imagined war against the British and the Americans.
Once a respected
orator President Mugabe is now delivering speeches that are
devoid of depth
and substance. Apart from calling Morgan Tsvangirai a
stooge of the British
and Simba Makoni a sellout, Mugabe does not have much
else to say. It should
not have been allowed to end this way.
In
2000 the ruling party used the land redistribution manifesto and
the
Professor Jonathan Moyo coined “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again”
cliché. Both are now tired and boring and any man who attempts to use them
in the 2008 plebiscite does so at the peril of their own
embarrassment.
There is not a single Zimbabwean that has ever spoken
against the
spirit of land redistribution. It was the chaotic manner, hence
the term
jambanja, with which the exercise was executed that all Zimbabweans
including the progressive forces within Zanu PF itself had a problem with.
Land redistribution was the correct thing to do, but done at the wrong time
by the wrong people and the result naturally is at variance with the
aspirations of the country. Jambanja literally translated means chaos devoid
of order, transparency and accountability.
The Professor Mandivamba
Rukuni Report, the Dr Charles Utete 1, 2 and
3 reports, and the Flora Bhuka
Report all attested to the chaotic manner in
which land redistribution was
carried out. Today the level of dereliction on
the farms and the mere fact
that Zimbabwe has been reduced to a net importer
of maize from Malawi, yes
Malawi and Zambia, is testimony that all is not
well on the farms.
I am yet to hear of a country where every cabinet minister, deputy
minister,
permanent secretary and all senior party officials are commercial
farmers.
This is a certain recipe for disaster. The erstwhile gentlemen in
the
military have weighed in with a dimension that smacks of hypocrisy and
narrow mindedness both at their worst. Seeing that their benefactor
President Mugabe stares defeat in the eye, they have proffered a thinly
veiled coup d’etat threat by hinting that they will not salute anyone not
President Mugabe.
Why I find this particularly nauseating is that
in 1980 at
Independence when most of these soldiers from both Zipra and
Zanla were
attested into the Zimbabwe National Army, they saluted and took
instructions
without incident from General Peter Walls.
Yes, Peter
Walls who a few weeks earlier had been commander of the
Rhodesian forces
which were responsible for the bombing of Nyadzonia,
Freedom Camp and many
others which resulted in the deaths and maiming of
thousand upon thousands
of black Zimbabweans. I find it sad that one
Zimbabwean
brother
finds joy in saluting Peter Walls, and yet sees problems in
saluting a black
compatriot whose only “crime” is holding a political
opinion divergent to
that held by the status quo.
Ken Flower was on the other hand in charge
of the Special Branch under
Ian Smith and was again head of the Central
Intelligence Organisation in
independent Zimbabwe. Ken was as white as white
can get and like Walls was a
descendent of the British. Security agents on
both sides of the divide
saluted and took orders from him with zeal. How
hypocritical can black
Zimbabweans get?
When you salute a
President, you are not necessarily saluting the
individual but the Office
that he or she holds. That is why when they cease
to hold the office; they
also cease to enjoy the salute. It’s that simple.
Maridadi is a Harare
based political activist and freelance
journalist.
Zim Independent
Opinion
Thursday, 27 March 2008 19:34
THE 29th of March 2008 is just around the
corner. This day is
rightfully seen as D-day for Zimbabwe.
The
country has been hurtling downhill for almost a decade now, with
those in
power totally clueless about how to staunch the deterioration.
There seems
to be a common view that the Zimbabwean problem is essentially a
governance
one. Those old enough to remember the Rhodesian situation and
that of South
Africa prior to 1994, will know that even with all the
economic creativity
of the best brains in the land, when political
management becomes
anachronistic, economic dysfunction is the upshot.
In Zimbabwe, we have
a regime that ascended to power on the back of a
very strong anti-colonial
sentiment that found expression in the War of
Liberation of the 1960s and
1970s. For a while, the regime basked in the
image of being liberators,
while a significant population savoured the
euphoria of Independence. In
that euphoria, regrettably, the sense of the
future was lost.
The
majority of the citizens naively surrendered their power and
responsibility
to be part of governance to the new rulers, the liberators.
Here were people
who had gone out to fight an oppressive colonial system.
They were brave,
patriotic, selfless Zimbabweans. They had finally prevailed
over a stubborn
minority regime. They were heroes. Herein lies the
provenance of our present
day woes.
There were early signs that indicated that, left unchecked,
our
liberators could become oppressors. Soon after Independence, fellow
liberators were called counter-revolutionaries and were hounded out of the
system until we ended up with a “dissident” situation. The rest, as they
say, is history.
Matabeleland and the Midlands provinces became
killing fields and
anyone who spoke with a click became a “dissident”! In
Harare, Matabeleland
was derisively referred to as “Ngale”, a clear
indication that it was
regarded as a far-off place with “funny” people. It
was the Kosovo of
Africa. In those heady days people got blinkered by the
mantra of “Pasi
naNgomo!” There was murderous zealotry for Mugabe and Zanu
PF, even when it
was clear that what was happening were signs of a
revolution losing its way.
It became sacrilegious to say anything remotely
critical of Mugabe and Zanu
PF. You were either with them or you were a
“dissident”! After the 1985
elections, miffed by being rejected in
Matabeleland, Mugabe addressed a very
poorly attended rally at
Barbourfields, at which he said, “The people of
Matabeleland have to choose
between war and peace. By voting for Zapu, they
have chosen war. They are
going to get war!” Anyway, that war was already
ongoing as the depredations
of Gukurahundi dated back to 1982.
The point is that Zanu PF
manipulated ideology and a gullible ethnic
majority and used scare tactics
to entrench its rule. Liberation history was
redefined and re-written to
give an impression that they, and they alone,
were the bearers of its
greater purposes. Academics and intellectuals fell
over each other in a bid
to reinforce the revolutionary project according to
Zanu PF.
In the
1990s, Zanu PF made an ideological shift by adopting the
Economic Structural
Adjustment Programme (Esap). However, politically, it
remained
unreconstructed. It resisted any calls to open up political space.
Unfortunately, Esap created more problems than it solved. Zanu PF failed to
convince the population as to why things were not working out. Then economic
questions became political questions. A whole chain of events followed,
leading to the formation of the MDC with Tsvangirai as the leader.
The viciousness and ferocity of Zanu PF’s attack against the MDC in
general,
and Morgan Tsvangirai in particular, was one actuated by a sense of
betrayal. The revolution was now eating its own children. Mugabe has vowed
that the MDC would never rule Zimbabwe. MDC is a puppet of the west. Zanu PF
liberated the country. They invented freedom in Zimbabwe. They have the
right to rule until donkeys grow horns, no matter how much they wreck the
country.
They fought colonialism. They brought freedom and
therefore the nation
should turn a blind eye to their obvious fallibilities.
Anyone who
criticises Zanu PF is an agent of imperialism. In their scheme of
things,
patriotism has a Zanu PF definition. The fact that they “delivered”
Independence grants them exclusive rights to know what is good and what is
bad for Zimbabwe. We see the service chiefs carrying out a pre-emptive coup
by announcing that they will not salute “stooges”, and that is not seen for
what it is. A national election is a constitutional process for change of
leadership. Subverting it by extra-constitutional means amounts to a coup
and that is treasonous.
Now, we have seen how Zanu PF got where it
is today. In comes the MDC,
which at one point carried the hopes of millions
of Zimbabweans across the
globe. The MDC split in 2005 in circumstances that
were tragic. Ostensibly,
it was on the issue of whether or not to
participate in senatorial
elections. A process was undertaken to arrive at a
decision about the
matter. The outcome of that process is known. Morgan
Tsvangirai could not
have it. He remarked that he was not going to accept
the result even if it
meant the breakup of the MDC! He stormed out of the
venue, called a press
conference and told a big lie. He said that there was
a toss-up in the vote
and he had used his casting vote in favour of those
who opposed
participation. MDC was therefore not going to participate in the
elections.
From then on things were never the same for MDC.
Like
Mugabe in the 1980s, Tsvangirai mobilised support on an ethnic
card,
accusing rivals of tribalism when issues were very clear. Like his
former
master in Zanu PF, he was adept at calling names, alleging that
rivals were
agents of Zanu PF. Again, as in the case of Zanu PF,
“progressive” academics
and intellectuals, at home and in the diaspora,
rallied behind Tsvangirai.
Innuendos and insinuations were made that
Matabeleland politicians had a
history of treachery.
One academic even blatantly accused President
Thabo Mbeki of wanting
to sideline Tsvangirai in favour of his (Mbeki’s)
“homeboy” (Welshman
Ncube). Issues of violence in the MDC were conveniently
ignored. When Trudy
Stevenson was savagely attacked by Tsvangirai’s thugs,
his own commission of
enquiry euphemistically referred to infiltration by
the CIO! It is
instructive to note that this commission had in it “prominent
and
respectable” lawyers. The only credit to Tsvangirai during this
forgettable
episode is that he was so embarrassed he had to delay publishing
the report.
I am not sure that he finally made it public.
Then
there was the Lucia Matibenga drama. It was hard to find any
appropriate
description of how wicked the whole thing was. You have a whole
party
president shamelessly removing a popular leader to anoint a friend’s
wife in
the same position. And when people
protest he unleashes his thugs.
Women were clobbered in broad daylight
in the centre of Harare for
attempting to demonstrate at Harvest House.
This is the same place
where many senior MDC leaders were beaten and
bruised for daring to query
certain things. Today, as was the case with Zanu
PF, anyone who criticises
Tsvangirai and the MDC is regarded as a Zanu PF
agent or plant. Nobody has a
mind of their own. Tsvangirai is said to be the
brave face of opposition in
Zimbabwe. He pioneered opposition politics in
Zimbabwe. Therefore his path
can or should only lead to State House. Is this
not just the reverse side of
a Zanu PF coin? How history repeats itself, and
in worse forms!
I
have heard the argument that now is not the time to focus on
Tsvangirai’s
shortcomings. Energy and attention should be trained on Mugabe,
who is
regarded as the greater evil. Only when Mugabe has been removed will
some
things be “corrected”. This can meaneither of two things.
Tsvangirai
must be given some opportunity (rewarded) to taste glory
for his bravery.
But it could also mean that Tsvangirai is a meal ticket
because of his
“popularity”. He, however, could be dispensed with after
victory and be
“released to graze in the commons”.
I am not sure if the world of
politics has things that simple. He has
already gone on record saying that
he possesses the keys to the MDC.
Are these just the rantings of a
dullard or they are ominous signs of
a schemer who is looking well beyond
“tasting”?
The theory of his malleability must be tempered with
historical
precedent. Daniel arap Moi used to be ridiculed by the more
lettered in Kanu
before the death of founding president, Jomo Kenyatta. He
was not given a
chance on succession. What happened? He did succeed
Kenyatta, not for one
year, not two tears, not 10 years, but 23 years!
Politicians dig in; digging
them out is a Herculean task.
Lovemore
Madhuku is not to be outdone in this “nhingi chete, chete!”
syndrome. He
wrote a piece recently in the Financial Gazette in which he
rooted for
Tsvangirai because he (Tsvangirai) is the embodiment of civil
society
principles and values. He tried to prepare people for Tsvangirai’s
impending
defeat by saying that the election is not for change but just to
signpost
the direction civil society wants to go. It is a most bizarre
argument.
Tsvangirai believes he will win (which, in the unlikely event that
he did,
would be a disaster for Zimbabwe). What Madhuku said must have
unsettled
Tsvangirai’s inner self. Madhuku’s support for Tsvangirai is
predicated on
history, which is that Tsvangirai and his civil society
acolytes started the
struggle for democracy in independent Zimbabwe.
They have a programme
of a set of principles and values that represent
the aspirations of the
people of Zimbabwe. It is this programme that nobody
else, save Tsvangirai
and Madhuku, can implement. He says that Makoni does
not represent the
aspirations of Zimbabweans, perhaps because he was not at
the so-called
people’s convention that led to the formation of the MDC.
How different
is this thinking from Zanu PF? Basically, Madhuku sees
himself and those
around him having “right” in their pockets. It is only
they who can define
what is good for Zimbabweans. Apart from the fact that
this is an insult to
even those that Madhuku claims to represent, it is a
giant lie that
opposition to Mugabe started with Tsvangirai. For all their
challenges,
there was Zum, Forum, Zanu Ndonga, etc. Within Zanu PF Mavhaire
openly
called for Mugabe’s retirem