The Zimbabwe Situation

In an indication of how blatant election-related violence has become in Zimbabwe, witnesses have described how a 24-year-old man was chased into a police station in Muzarabani, north of Harare, last Sunday and beaten to death.

The man, known only as "Tairos" in police records, is one of at least 25 people the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) claims have died in post-election violence.

Quoting doctors treating the injured, the Sunday Independent reported at the weekend that 7 000 people had been injured in the mounting violence.

In response, two regional delegations visited Zimbabwe this week, one from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and one led by President Thabo Mbeki's chief facilitator, Provincial and Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi.

MDC members said Mufamadi was presented with what opposition and human rights groups say is evidence of worsening Zanu-PF attacks, including video footage showing burned-out homes of opposition supporters and testimony from assault victims.

But the meeting was described as "tense". The MDC has reportedly written to Mbeki protesting against what they see as his bias and this had "put a shadow over this week's meetings", a senior adviser to MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai said.

Witnesses said Tairos, a tractor driver at a government-run farm in the area, was seized from his home and dragged to a police station, where he was ordered to point out policemen sympathetic to the MDC.

Unable to do this, he was beaten to death. Police officers tried to protect him, but they were outnumbered by the Zanu-PF militia, which one witness said, numbered more than 100.

The Mail & Guardian was shown a police report made at the Mvurwi provincial police station claiming the man was killed in inter-party clashes provoked by MDC activists.

The opposition charges police complicity in the continuing violence, but police officers themselves are under threat. They face pressure not to open dockets against Zanu-PF activists accused of violence, officers told the M&G.

Zanu-PF militia have sealed off rural areas to journalists and human-rights groups, while residents wishing to leave have to seek "authorisation letters" from local Zanu-PF leaders.

"We believe the tally is much worse than the 25 dead we can report, because access to some rural and farming areas has been impeded," said MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa.

A private hospital in Harare has opened a "special ward" for victims of violence, a doctor told reporters visiting the facility. Inside the ward dozens of people are nursing injuries, most commonly broken limbs and burns.

As charges of violence escalated President Robert Mugabe met an SADC delegation on Tuesday. Tomasz Salomao, SADC executive secretary, said "the message of the chairperson of the organ on politics, defence and security [Angolan President Eduardo dos Santos] is to urge the political parties in Zimbabwe to participate in the run-off, in full observation of the law".

Salomao's team hopes to meet Tsvangirai, who left Zimbabwe immediately after the elections.
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Mugabe's chief election agent and Zanu-PF's legal secretary, charged that the MDC is arming militia, called "democratic resistance committees", to attack Mugabe supporters, the police and army.

A free election was impossible unless the MDC dismantled these militia, he said this week. "To ensure a peaceful campaign in the run-off period, Zanu-PF calls upon the MDC to dismantle these committees," Mnangagwa said.

Zanu-PF said a combination of Western interference and corruption at the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission had "poisoned the environment against Zanu-PF".

The SADC mission and Mufamadi were also due to meet independent Simba Makoni.

Zimbabwe Electoral Body No Longer In Control - Pan-African Parliament

VOA

By Ntungamili Nkomo
Washington DC
08 May 2008

The Pan-African Parliament has issued a harsh criticism of the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission, saying that body has “long lost its control of the
electoral process” and that “its constitutional obligation has been gravely
compromised.”

The parliament, now in session in Midrand, South Africa, said in a report
made public on Wednesday, that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission had told it
that the second-round presidential contest between Morgan Tsvangirai and
President Robert Mugabe could not be held within the legally stipulated 21
days for logistical reasons.

The report from the Pan-African Parliament quoted the electoral commission
as saying the run-off ballot could be held anytime up to a year from May 2,
when the commission issued its compilation of first-round presidential
results. That was more than a month after the March 29 election, which
seriously damaged the commission's credibility.

The parliament voiced concern at widespread post-election violence, saying
that it was willing to send an observer team to monitor a second-round vote.

Pan-African Parliament elections rapporteur Sunil Makshanand Dowarkansing
told reporter Ntungamili Nkomo of VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe that it is
urgent a solution be found to keep the violence in Zimbabwe from spinning
out of control.

Mbeki, Mugabe Meet On Violence

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:59

SOUTH African President Thabo Mbeki is expected in Harare today to
meet President Robert Mugabe over the spiralling political violence and the
potentially explosive presidential election run-off as pressure mounts on
him to find a solution to the deepening crisis.

The meeting is expected to be tense as Mbeki is under growing pressure
at home and abroad to break the worsening electoral deadlock and secure an
economic recovery plan in Zimbabwe.

Mugabe and Mbeki may seem uneasy bedfellows, but biographers argue
that Mbeki has an “atavistic loyalty” to Zimbabwe’s 84-year-old leader.

Mbeki paid an ill-fated flying visit to Zimbabwe last month when he
said there was “no crisis” here, sparking off an outburst of criticism from
all over the world.

His damage-limitation bid later, saying he meant there was no
“electoral crisis” as a run-off would resolve the stalemate, failed to quell
the crescendo of censure.

Sources said Mbeki would raise the problem of political violence,
inter-party talks and the run-off with Mugabe.

The run-off is unlikely to take place within the scheduled 21 days.
Sources said the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), which met over the
issue on Tuesday, would need at least 40 days to organise the run-off.

ZEC chair George Chiweshe seemed to confirm this when he said this
week: “If the 21 days are not enough we have powers to extend.”

Marwick Khumalo, who led the Pan African Parliamentary mission to
observe Zimbabwe’s March 29 elections, said Chiweshe had told him the
run-off would be delayed, but “not for longer than 12 months”.

Government has suggested it could be delayed by up to a year.

Mbeki is concerned about political violence and would tackle the issue
in his meeting with Mugabe, it is understood.

Mbeki last Friday told African religious leaders in Pretoria that he
would send a team to investigate increasing reports of violence.

He then dispatched a group of retired army generals led by Lt-Gen
Gilbert Lebeko Ramano, former South African army chief in the combined
defence forces, to Harare on Sunday to probe cases of violence.

The group has met government officials, Zanu PF and main opposition
MDC members, civil society and religious leaders.

Sources said the team has gathered massive and compelling evidence of
violence.

It said this has partly prompted Mbeki to meet Mugabe to deal with the
emergency.

The African Union and Sadc this week sent envoys to meet Mugabe over
these problems. The AU discussed the situation this week in Tanzania. The UN
and EU are also seized with the crisis.

On Monday Mbeki sent his mediation team on Zimbabwe led by South
African Local Government minister Sydney Mufamadi to meet Mugabe and ZEC
officials.

The team, that also included Director in the Presidency Reverend Frank
Chikane and presidential legal advisor Mujanku Gumbi also met MDC faction
leaders separately in South Africa on Tuesday.

Sources said Mbeki is pushing for a free and fair run-off while
keeping options for a negotiated settlement in Zimbabwe open.

Mbeki’s other envoy on Zimbabwe, Kingsley Mamabolo, who was in the
country last week, said this week conditions did not exist for a free and
fair run-off. Khumalo also said the same thing.

This view is shared by many in Zimbabwe who are shocked by the
prevailing climate of fear and political violence.

The MDC claims at least 20 of its supporters have been killed, but
government denies some of the murders were politically-motivated.

Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono said a pre-run-off pact was needed
to guarantee a peaceful and secure election environment.

Tsvangirai is yet to officially confirm entry into the run-off,
although he is almost certain to take part conditionally.

He wants a tranquil environment that guarantees Mugabe will accept the
results. Mugabe told Senegalese Foreign minister Cheikh Tidiane Gadio last
week he would accept defeat but also urged Tsvangirai to do the same.

However, Mbeki’s mediation has run into problems with main opposition
leader Tsvangirai’s faction asking him to step aside, saying he is not an
honest broker.

Mbeki has ignored that and is pressing ahead. Sadc has said it
supports him, although the body is divided over this.

Sources said Mbeki’s team met with Mugabe to find out when the run-off
would be held and whether government and ZEC were prepared.

ZEC is said to be not yet ready due to lack of money and logistical
capacity.

Sources said US$60 million is needed to fund the run-off.

The other problem is schools which are used as polling stations and
teachers who function as polling officers are currently open and mostly
working.

While Mbeki and his mediators might make progress with other groups,
they could have serious problems with the MDC.

The MDC fell out with Mbeki after last year’s talks after he said
dialogue had succeeded when the opposition thought it had failed.

Mbeki’s view was that the parties had reached a “substantive
agreement” on all main issues and this was a step forward, although
implementation was not done.

The MDC said the talks were a failure because they did not achieve
main objectives, a new constitution and postponement of elections from March
to June.

They also objected to Mugabe arbitrarily announcing the election date
contrary to the Mauritius terms.

On January 15, Mbeki met Mugabe and Tsvangirai in Harare but failed to
break the deadlock on the Constitution and date of elections which led to
the collapse of the talks.

Between January 17 and 29, Mbeki tried in vain to persuade Mugabe to
meet Tsvangirai to resolve the issues.

On February 13 Mufamadi, Chikane and Gumbi travelled to Harare and
held separate meetings with the two negotiating teams, but that did not
achieve anything as Mugabe had already proclaimed the election date on
January 25, effectively killing off the talks.

Today’s meeting could be critical in determining Mbeki’s future role
in Zimbabwe.

By Dumisani Muleya

Mnangagwa Running Zanu PF Campaign

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:54

ZANU PF politburo member Emmerson Mnangagwa and a clique of ruling
party hardliners are pulling the strings behind the scenes in directing
President Robert Mugabe’s presidential election run-off campaign strategy.

Impeccable sources told the Zimbabwe Independent Mnangagwa and his
team are working with Mugabe’s loyalists within the Joint Operations Command
(JOC) and in the party in a bid to ensure he wins the run-off by fair means
or foul.

Service chiefs and top commanders, including General Constantine
Chiwenga, police chief Augustine Chihuri, prisons commissioner Retired Major
General Paradzai Zimondi, army chief of staff Major General Martin Chedondo,
and Brigadier General David Sigauke have said they would not work under
Tsvangirai if he defeats Mugabe.

The Mnangagwa team has been holding strategic meetings, including one
with state editors last week, to prepare for the do-or-die second round of
voting.

Mugabe was defeated by MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the first round
although the opposition chief did not get the required majority to rule.

Justice minister Patrick Chinamasa, a Mnangagwa ally since the Zanu PF
Tsholotsho power struggle saga in 2004, chaired the meeting with the
state-controlled media editors.

He gave them the editorial guidelines and political agenda to be
followed during the run-off. Mnangagwa attended the meeting and was
introduced to the editors.

The message from the meeting, and all other gatherings over the
run-off, is Mugabe has to be retained while Tsvangirai has to be blocked at
all costs.

Zanu PF hawks are in fighting mood to prevent Tsvangirai from taking
over as they fear he would undermine their economic interests and prosecute
all those accused of human rights abuses.

Tsvangirai recently called for Mugabe and his loyalists to be held to
account for human rights violations as political violence resurged. This has
alarmed Mugabe and his adherents, especially in the army.

The sources said Mugabe — given an eviction notice from State House by
Tsvangirai in the March 29 presidential poll — has tasked Mnangagwa, Zanu PF’s
secretary for legal affairs, to secure his victory by all means necessary.

Mnangagwa is Mugabe’s chief election agent and was his personal
assistant during the liberation struggle.

Sources said Mnangagwa, Chinamasa, former Zanu PF Midlands provincial
chair July Moyo and the war veterans leader Jabulani Sibanda, among others,
had taken over the running of the party’s commissariat and information
departments.

Apart from seizing control of party structures, Mnangagwa and his
group have eclipsed Information and Publicity minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu.

The state editors were told to report to Chinamasa, not Ndlovu.

“Mnangagwa and his group are now in charge of key party and government
departments,” one of the sources said. “Those expelled from Zanu PF after
the Tsholotsho debacle are back in the Zanu PF fold to campaign for Mugabe.”

The Mnangagwa group, the sources said, had sidelined national
political commissar Elliot Manyika from spearheading Mugabe’s latest bid for
re-election after the president reportedly accused him of failing to come
up with an effective presidential campaign strategy in the first round
election.

“Manyika will not play any crucial role in the countdown to the
run-off,” another source said. “He has been sidelined and it explains why he
has gone quiet after the March polls.”

Another casualty, the sources said, was the party’s secretary for
information and publicity Nathan Shamuyarira whose role as Zanu PF’s
official spokesperson was taken over by a sub-committee on information
chaired by Chinamasa.

Chinamasa has since the post-March election been speaking on behalf of
the government.

“Chinamasa told the stunned editors that the shareholder, Mugabe and
his government, were not happy with the way they covered the elections,” a
source said. “He told them that from now on he was in charge of the state
media outlets and that editors should brief him daily on all major political
stories they will be working on.”

Chinamasa’s committee comprises ministers Olivia Muchena and
Sithembiso Nyoni, Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga and information
ministry permanent secretary George Charamba.

Mnangagwa’s close ally and former Zimbabwe ambassador to China
Christopher Mutsvangwa and the publisher of Zimbabwe Today — a
pro-government obscure newspaper — Goodson Nguni, were also drafted onto the
committee.

SA Team Probes Zim Violence

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:50
A GROUP of former South African army generals is in the country to
investigate reports of political violence which is reported to have
escalated after the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission last week released the
results of the March 29 presidential poll.

The South African team, sent by President Thabo Mbeki and led by Lt
General Gilbert Lebeko Ramano, a former army chief from 1998 to 2004, has
been in the country since Sunday and has met government and MDC officials,
civic society groups, and other stakeholders.

Sources told the Zimbabwe Independent that the generals this week
interviewed some of the reported victims of the alleged state-sponsored
post-election violence.

The generals, the sources said, recorded testimonials from some of the
victims which will be incorporated in a report they will compile for Mbeki.

This comes amid revelations by former South Africa ambassador to
Zimbabwe, Kingsley Mamabolo, that there was political violence in the
country. Mamabolo — who headed a South African contingent of regional
election observers — told reporters in Pretoria on Wednesday that violence
was rampant and the environment was not conducive for a presidential
election run-off.

"We have seen it, there are people in hospital who said they have been
tortured, you have seen pictures, you have seen pictures of houses that have
been destroyed and so on," Mamabolo said. "You cannot have the next round
taking place in this atmosphere; it will not be helpful, it will create a
whole lot of problems."

Sources said Mbeki sent the army generals on the fact-finding mission
after pressure mounted on him from the opposition alleging state repression
and persecution against its supporters.

"The reports of violence that have been coming from the MDC and civic
society in the past few weeks have pushed Mbeki into action," one of the
sources said. "He told a meeting of African religious leaders that he would
dispatch a team to Harare to investigate these allegations of violence and
within two days of that statement the team left to conduct the probe."

The source said after meeting various stakeholders the generals would
meet Mugabe before concluding their mission.

The probe comes in the wake of the MDC claims that over 30 of its
supporters had been killed by state security agents, Zanu PF militia and war
veterans.

The MDC alleged that political violence was at peak levels in
Mashonaland Central where war veterans were said to have embarked on
witch-hunting expeditions for suspected opposition supporters. However, the
police on Wednesday dismissed the MDC claims as fabrications.

Wayne Bvudzijena, the police spokesperson, said one of the MDC polling
agents the party claimed to have been murdered in politically motivated
violence died from chronic meningitis, tuberculosis and clinical
immuno-suppression. Bvudzijena said Clement Dube died at Mpilo Central
Hospital in Bulawayo having succumbed to illness.

The police said a teacher in Guruve, Percy Muchibwa, whom the
opposition party said had been killed, was alive.

By Nkululeko Sibanda

Civil Servants Get Another Windfall

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:48
THE government last week deposited huge amounts of money in civil
servants’ bank accounts in what appears to be an attempt to buy votes ahead
of the presidential election run-off legally expected to take place on or
before May 23 pitting President Robert Mugabe and the MDC’s Morgan
Tsvangirai.

The civil servants, among them teachers, headmasters and nurses, each
got a deposit of $5,4 billion irrespective of their grades and positions in
government.

The Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ) claimed the deposits
were part of Zanu PF’s vote-buying exercise. The union said the amount
deposited fell far short of what teachers were demanding from the
government.

"It is true that the deposits were met with joy by civil servants,"
the PTUZ secretary-general Raymond Majongwe. "However, the truth of the
matter is that we are now demanding $18 billion for a teacher fresh from
college."

The latest salary increment for civil servants comes barely two months
after Mugabe’s government hiked their salaries just before the harmonised
elections.

Teachers in Bulawayo confirmed the salary increment and said everyone,
irrespective of grades and experience in the teaching service, got the $5,4
billion deposits in their accounts.

"The salary increment were not planned as I got the same amount given
to headmasters and teachers and this shows that this was something not
planned properly," said a teacher who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A source working with one bank in the city said all civil servants
seem to have received the same amount save for the uniformed forces who
received their salaries earlier than teachers.

The government has in the past increased civil servant salaries before
crucial elections in a bid to buy votes.

The latest move to award civil servants a salary increment comes at a
time when Mugabe is believed to have lost the March 29 presidential election
to Tsvangirai.

Meanwhile, most schools opened without teachers in Matabeleland
provinces, as most of them were believed to have left for South Africa.

Majongwe said the number of teachers who did not report for school was
shocking.

"Teachers have left the country while some who were polling and
presiding officers fled accusations of tampering with election results. At
the moment you find a school looking for between 10 and 20 teachers while in
some schools there are no teachers at all," said Majongwe.

By Loughty Dube

Mugabe Has Mountain To Climb

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:44
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe has a mountain to climb if he is to win the
anticipated presidential election run-off against MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai, which is legally expected to take place before May 23.

An analysis of the March 29 presidential election results announced
last Friday by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) shows that it would
be a huge task for Mugabe to beat Tsvangirai if opposition forces unite
behind the former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade
Unions.

An extrapolation of the result reveals that Tsvangirai would win with
an overwhelming majority if all voters who backed independent presidential
candidates Simba Makoni and Langton Towungana in the first round poll voted
for the MDC leader in the run-off.

According to the ZEC results, Tsvangirai polled 1 195 562 votes or
47,9% of total votes cast to defeat Mugabe who garnered 1 079 730 ballots or
43,2% of the votes. Makoni came a distant third with 207 470 votes or 8,3%,
while Towungana got a paltry 14 503 votes or 0,6% of the total ballots cast
in the election.

The presidential result shows that if Makoni’s movement and the MDC
had agreed to field Tsvangirai as the sole opposition candidate, the former
trade unionist would have garnered about 1 403 032 votes or 56,2% and the
run-off would not have been necessary.

So far the other faction of the MDC lead by Arthur Mutambara has
agreed to work with Tsvangirai’s camp, while negotiations with the Makoni
movement were reportedly still in progress.

In terms of Zimbabwe’s electoral laws, a presidential aspirant must
win 50% plus votes to assume office.

Tsvangirai won in four provinces, Harare, Bulawayo, Manicaland and
Matabeleland North, while Mugabe emerged victorious in Mashonaland Central,
Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Midlands and Matabeleland
South.

However, if Tsvangirai was the sole opposition candidate he would have
also won in Masvingo, Matabeleland South and the Midlands. In Masvingo,
Tsvangirai and Makoni’s combined votes would have been 157 230 against
Mugabe’s 156 672.

In Matabeleland South, the MDC leader was supposed to have garnered 71
098 against Mugabe’s 46 156 ballots, while in Midlands Tsvangirai should
have won 172 920 ballots, with Mugabe collecting 166 831.

The results also reveal that the three Matabeleland provinces,
Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland West and Mashonaland East would decide
whether Mugabe or Tsvangirai will win the run-off, but all indications point
to the opposition leader’s victory.

Mugabe does not enjoy support in the Matabeleland provinces.

In Bulawayo alone, where voter turnout was low, Mugabe failed to
garner more than 1 000 votes in seven of the 12 constituencies and came a
distant third in the province. In Bulawayo Central he got 749 votes,
Bulawayo East 855, Bulawayo South 714, Emakhandeni-Ethumbane 858, Magwegwe
672 and Nkulumane 987.

The results also reveal that Makoni was more popular in Bulawayo than
Mugabe. He also won more votes than Mugabe and Tsvangirai in Matabeleland
South.

Political analysts this week said judging by the ZEC statistics, the
three Matabeleland provinces would be key to the winner of the run-off
between Mugabe and Tsvangirai.

Traditionally, the analysts argued, the Matabeleland provinces have
been the fortresses of the opposition.

In the March 29 election, Tsvangirai emerged victorious in Bulawayo
and Matabeleland North against both Makoni and Mugabe. Makoni won in
Matabeleland South.

The MDC-Mutambara faction deputy spokesperson, Abedinico Bhebhe, said
his party was awaiting Tsvangirai’s confirmation that he would participate
in the run-off for it to launch a massive campaign for him. Ncube is the
MP-elect for Nkayi South.

Tsvangirai said he would announce whether or not he will take part in
the run-off once ZEC announces the date of the poll.

"Tsvangirai has to make an announcement that he is taking part in the
polls," Bhebhe said. "Otherwise some of the statements he is making, though
strategic, are at the same time confusing those that want to campaign for
him."

He said the party would campaign vigorously for Tsvangirai once he
enters the race.

"The issues are clear and we will obviously back him and campaign for
him on the ground and we expect all democratic forces to do that," Bhebhe
said.

He said the decision to back Tsvangirai was made by the party’s
national council and, therefore, all winning and losing MDC-Mutambara
parliamentary candidates will campaign for the former trade unionist.

Bulawayo based political commentator Gorden Moyo said while Makoni and
Mutambara can effectively campaign for Tsvangirai, what was important for
them was to lobby the African Union (AU) and Sadc to ensure that the run-off
would be held in a free and fair environment.

"They (Makoni and Mutambara) must add their voice to those urging
Sadc, the AU and the international community to ensure that instruments of
repression are removed countrywide ahead of the election," Moyo said.

Tsvangirai’s MDC claims that Mugabe has unleashed violence against his
supporters in a bid to coerce them to vote for the octogenarian leader.

The party said over 20 of its supporters have been killed by state
security agents, Zanu PF militia and war veterans, while over 5 000 families
were displaced and more than 800 homesteads razed down in the countryside
since March 29.

However, the government denied orchestrating the violence and in turn
accused the MDC of perpetrating it through what it called the party’s
democratic resistance committees.

By Constantine Chimakure

Mugabe Win Will Create Dysfunctional Govt

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:41
THE forthcoming presidential election run-off will create a
dysfunctional government if President Robert Mugabe wins against the MDC’s
Morgan Tsvangirai, a University of Zimbabwe political science professor
Eldred Masunungure has said.

Speaking at a Zimbabwe Union of Journalists election reporting
workshop in Bulawayo this week, Masunungure said Mugabe would not rule
effectively as he would face a hostile parliament and will find it difficult
to run the country and pass laws.

“There is no way Mugabe can rule when his party is a minority in
parliament,” the lecturer said. “He will be in office, but he will not be in
power and will not rule effectively in such a scenario and a government he
would create will be dysfunctional.”

Masunungure, who is also the executive director of the Mass Opinion
Public Institute, said faced with the hostile parliament and a polarised
political atmosphere, Mugabe would have only one choice — dissolution of
parliament and fresh elections.

“President Mugabe’s choices are limited but he can dissolve parliament
and call for fresh elections in the hope that he will garner more seats than
the opposition,” Masunungure added.

The Tsvangirai-led MDC faction won 99 House of Assembly seats, while
Zanu PF has 97 seats and the Arthur Mutambara-led MDC has 10 seats.
Independent candidate Jonathan Moyo won the Tsholotsho seat.

The two MDC factions have since entered into a parliamentary pact that
would see them control the House of Assembly.

“If President Mugabe has to pass laws such as the Finance Bill and if
parliament rejects it, then that would be unacceptable and it would be
difficult to rule the country in parliament’s current state,” Masunungure
said.

By Loughty Dube

20 Farms Seized In Mash West

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:38
SUSPECTED war veterans and Zanu PF loyalists have seized over 20
commercial farms in Mashonaland West in the past fortnight, amid reports
that a countrywide new wave of farm invasions was looming ahead of a
presidential election run-off between President Robert Mugabe and the MDC’s
Morgan Tsvangirai.

The most high-profile person to occupy a farm in Mashonaland West was
the Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Edward Mashiringwana. Last month
Mashiringwana allegedly invaded a farm owned by South African farmer Louis
Fick in the same province.

This was despite a Chinhoyi magistrate’s court interdict barring the
deputy central bank boss from occupying the property. Mashiringwana
reportedly invaded Friedawill Farm in Lions Den, 20km west of Chinhoyi. Fick
told the Zimbabwe Independent yesterday that Mashiringwana had seized his
farm.

"Let me say this in short, our workers are being locked outside the
farm and they are not being allowed access to the animals," Fick said. "We
have lost pigs and crocodiles. Mashiringwana — the deputy governor — is
behind this."

Reports from the farm have graphically described the squeals of
piglets devoured by sows driven insane by lack of food and water. The
National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals which tried to
take food and water to the farm was denied access.

Commercial Farmers Union (CFU) president Trevor Gifford told the
Zimbabwe Independent this week that a group of white commercial farmers in
Chegutu made reports to the police that war veterans and Zanu PF supporters
have forcibly taken over their farms.

"We have reports that over 20 farms have been invaded," Gifford said.
"The owners made reports to the police, but they got no assistance."

He alleged that the police displayed a lackadaisical attitude towards
the invasions, which he claimed were also spreading to Mashonaland Central.

"The situation is so severe, police in Mashonaland West are reluctant
to deal with the invasions," Gifford said. "It is only in a few cases that
the Police Support Unit reacted."

Impeccable sources in the province said police officers were declining
to enter their names in the Report Record Book (RRB) once a farmer made a
report for fear of victimisation by their superiors.

Police spokesperson Wayne Bvu-dzijena said he was not aware of the new
wave of farm invasions.

"We are not aware of those (invasion) reports at the moment,"
Bvudzijena said.

On why police officers were not writing their names on RRBs,
Bvudzijena said it was an administrative issue that must be dealt with by a
police station officer-in-charge.

However, he said with or without officers’ names on the RRBs, the
cases would be investigated.

Gifford alleged that a white couple in Chegutu was assaulted by Zanu
PF youth militia on Monday after resisting the seizure of their farm and
were later admitted at a private hospital in Harare.

By Bernard Mpofu

MDC Factions Agree To Save Sibanda, Ncube, Nyathi

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:35
THE two MDC factions have agreed to use three House of Assembly
by-elections in Redcliff, Pelandaba-Mpopoma in Bulawayo and Gwanda South to
bring back into parliament the Arthur Mutambara-led camp’s bigwigs Gibson
Sibanda, Welshman Ncube and Paul Themba Nyathi.

Sibanda is the Mutambara faction’s vice-president, Ncube
secretary-general and Nyathi is the secretary of elections.

Sources in both factions, which entered into a parliamentary coalition
last week, told the Zimbabwe Independent this week that the two MDCs have
agreed to field the three opposition leaders in by-elections to be held at a
date to be proclaimed by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC).

This, the sources said, would be done to cement the factions’
coalition agreement.

“Ncube will now stand for the unified MDC in Redcliff while Sibanda
will contest in Pelandaba-Mpopoma and Nyathi will represent the alliance in
Gwanda South,” one of the sources said.

Sibanda, Ncube and Nyathi contested in the March 29 House of Assembly
elections in Bulawayo constituencies and lost to MDC-Tsvangirai candidates.

Parliamentary elections in the three constituencies failed to take
place after the death of the contesting candidates.

Nelson Chamisa, the MDC-Tsvangirai spokesperson, yesterday said the
two factions would field a single candidate in the three by-elections in
line with their coalition agreement.

“The MDC as a united front will field candidates in the Redcliff,
Gwanda and Pelandaba-Mpopoma by-elections,” he said.

Chamisa could neither confirm nor deny that Sibanda, Ncube and Nyathi
would represent both camps in the by-elections.

However, it emerged this week that there has been grumbling in both
factions over the parliamentary coalition.

The sources said senior members of the MDC factions accused Mutambara
and Tsvangirai of signing the agreement brokered by business magnate Strive
Masiyiwa in South Africa without consulting their national councils.

According to the factions’ coalition, the parties acknowledged that
they were two separate formations, but for purposes of consummating the
alliance agreed to vote as one in parliament.

The parties also agreed to have one chief whip and caucus; to vote
together in parliament; to elect a Speaker of Parliament nominated by the
MDC-Tsvangirai camp and a deputy speaker from MDC-Mutambara wing.

None of the parties that contested the March elections was able to win
an absolute majority in parliament on its own, hence the cooperation of the
two MDC factions.

By Lucia Makamure

Standard Editor Arrested

Zim Independent

Local
Thursday, 08 May 2008 20:31
POLICE yesterday arrested the editor of the Standard, Davison
Maruziva, on allegations of publishing statements deemed prejudicial to the
state and contempt of court after publishing an opinion article by MDC
leader Arthur Mutambara lambasting a ruling of the High Court last month on
the delayed release of the March 29 presidential election results.

The Standard edition of April 20-26 this year carried Mutambara’s
article headlined “A Shameful Betrayal of National Independence” in which
the robotics professor criticised Justice Tendai Uchena for dismissing the
MDC-Tsvangirai’s application to compel the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to
release the results of the election.

Maruziva was arrested by detectives from the Law and Order section of
the CID and was charged under provisions of the Criminal Law (Codification
and Reform) Act which deals with publishing or communicating a false
statement prejudicial to the state.

The Standard is a sister publication of the Zimbabwe Independent.

Iden Wetherell, Group Projects Editor of the Zimbabwe Independent and
Standard, yesterday described the arrest of Maruziva as a serious attack on
the media by the government.

“This is a serious attack on both press and political freedom,”
Wetherell said. “The issues raised by Mutambara are all currently part of
the national discourse.”

At the time of going to press yesterday, Maruziva was still in police
custody. His arrest came less than a week after journalists across the world
celebrated World Press Freedom Day.

During the day, May 3, international and regional media bodies slammed
the Zimbabwe government’s continued crackdown on local and foreign
journalists after the March 29 harmonised elections.

The media watchdogs said they were “deeply” concerned by the rising
cases of assault, intimidation and arrests of scribes in the country.

Last Friday, freelance reporter and Action Aid programme officer,
Precious Shumba, became the 10th journalist to be arrested after the
historic polls.

“This media crackdown is a calculated attack on journalists who have
revealed what appears to be the loss of the elections by the ruling party,”
the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said.

The IFJ said it was worrying to note that even the president of the
Zimbabwe Union of Journalists, Mathew Takaona, was a recent victim of the
crackdown when he was assaulted and robbed by people wearing army uniforms
in Chitungwiza.

Another international media watchdog, Reporters Without Borders,
condemned the arrest and detention of freelance journalist Frank Chikowere
last month.

Chikowore, who was released last week on bail, spent 17 days in
custody after his arrest on April 15 while covering a job stayaway organised
by the Morgan Tsvangirai-led MDC to protest the delay in announcing the
result of the presidential election.

The journalist was charged with public violence and for allegedly
torching a bus in Warren Park, Harare.

The police confiscated his laptop, recorder and camera. The Media
Institute of Southern Africa said five other journalists, including Jonathan
Clayton, the South Africa-based correspondent of the UK newspaper

The Times, were arrested and faced various charges after the
elections.

Clayton was deported from Zimbabwe after being detained for eight
nights and fined $20 billion on April 15 for violating the country’s
immigration laws after he declared at Joshua Mqabuko Nkomo Airport,
Bulawayo, that he was a tourist.

A Harare court last month acquitted another British reporter, Steve
Bevan, and New York Times journalist Barry Bearak.

Both were arrested and detained for five days when police raided a
lodge they were staying in on April 3 on charges of covering the March 29
election without accreditation.

But a Harare magistrate acquitted Bevan and Bearak after ruling that
the state had detained the two without producing a warrant of arrest and had
failed to provide evidence that the journalists had committed an offence.

Zimbabwean police also arrested two South Africans working for a
satellite television service company on March 27. They were released on
April 14.

A local freelance journalist Stanley Karombo was detained after being
arrested at Gwanzura Stadium while covering the Independence celebrations.

Currently, Howard Burditt, an accredited Reuters cameraman, has been
held for three nights at Harare Central for possession of a satellite phone.

Zimbabwe has some of the toughest media laws and a terrible record of
harassment of journalists and repression of the media.

Some of the hostile laws include the Access to Information and
Protection of Privacy Act, the Interception of Communications Act, the
Broadcasting Services Act, the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act,
the Public Order and Security Act and the Censorship and Control of
Entertainment Act.

Meanwhile, Information and Publicity minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu
reportedly told the Bulawayo Press Club at the weekend that the government
was planning to tighten controls on the media.

Ndlovu said the government would limit the accreditation of foreign
journalists ahead of the expected run-off presidential election between
Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe expected before May 23.

Black Market, Banks 'fight' For Forex

Zim Independent

Business
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:57
THE battle between parallel market dealers and the banking sector for
the little foreign currency in the country intensified this week as exchange
rates galloped ahead.

The parallel market dealers were this week battling to match rates
that were being offered by authorised dealers.

This has pushed the exchange rate to as high as US$1:$200 million as
the competing markets tried to offer competitive rates to attract foreign
currency holders.

The fragile Zimbabwean dollar which was trading at US$1:$110 million
on Monday last week slumped to $180 million to the US dollar last Friday.

The surge in the rates which reflect how much the Zimbabwean dollar
has lost value within a week followed the liberalisation of the foreign
currency market by central bank governor, Gideon Gono.

In his first quarter monetary policy statement last Wednesday Gono
allowed the Zimbabwe dollar to float on the market. He allowed the market to
determine the exchange rate on a willing buyer-willing-seller basis.

The logic was that this policy shift would kill the parallel market
which has been flourishing for the past four years due to the disparity
between the official and parallel market exchange rates.

The refusal by the government to open the foreign exchange market and
the perennial shortages of hard currency also nourished the black market.

Instead of instantly killing the parallel market the liberalisation
has served to push up the rates because of the competition among the buyers
for the little foreign currency that is still finding its way into the
country.

Parallel market dealers however felt the pinch as they were forced to
narrow their margins to keep pace with the movement of the rate on the
official market.

By yesterday parallel market dealers had pushed their rates to
US$1:$200 million as they tried to match an average of US$1:$210 million
that was being offered by the banks.

Banks were buying the United States dollar at rates ranging from $195
million to $214 million while most black market dealers in Harare were
buying at rates between $190 million and $210 million.

Kingdom Bank was buying the $195 million and selling at $205 million.
FBC Bank, Premier and CFX were buying at $204 million. Their selling prices
were however different. FBC was asking for $205,011 million, Premier ($205
million) and CFX ($206 million).

The highest offer for the US dollar was coming from ABC Bank which was
paying $214 million. The bank was selling at $216,5 million. Standard
Chartered Bank was buying at $208 million, ZABG ($202 million) and Stanbic
Bank ($204 million). The RBZ’s foreign currency purchasing centres were
buying at the average rate of $204 565 727,39.

This week marked the first full week of foreign currency trading by
banks since the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) liberalised the foreign
exchange market last week. The rate movement has been dramatic since trading
opened last Friday.

On Monday, banks were buying the US dollar at rates between $155
million and $170 million while parallel market dealers were offering rates
between $100 million and Z$130 million.

The biggest constraint for the parallel market has been the liquidity
crunch arising from the new cash withdrawal limits set last week by the RBZ
of just $5 billion.

As the cash shortages continued to bite some black market dealers
opted to move their business to the bank transfers where the US dollar was
fetching a good premium. Although not severely hit by the cash crisis banks
also showed signs of failing to cope with the cash requirements for the
foreign currency trading.

Holders of foreign exchange are permitted to liquidate a maximum of
US$150 a day. This limit — which analysts say is a form of interference in
the market — seemed to have created some breathing space for the parallel
market traders who took advantage of the people trying to move huge volumes.

"We are under pressure from the banks. We just have to match the
formal market or we will be out of business," said a foreign currency at
RoadPort who only identified himself as Martin. The sudden movement in the
rate had also hurt the middleman in the parallel market.

A sharp increase in the rate tends to put the middleman under
pressure.

"Everyday I have to debate whether I go home with local currency or
foreign currency because you never know what going to happen in this
market," added Martin.

A survey carried out across Harare showed that most holders of foreign
currency were now opting to sell their foreign currency with banks.

Queues for people selling their foreign currency at banks easily
outstripped queues for local currency withdrawals in banking halls during
the week.

ZABG economist, David Mupamhadzi said there was no reason for people
to risk being caught trading on the parallel market when banks were buying
at higher rates than the parallel market.

"It is a willing seller, willing buyer relationship," Mupamhadzi said.

"There is no justification as to why people will continue selling on
the parallel market." Mupamhadzi said it was now up to the banking sector to
ensure that the system worked efficiently and manage to attract all foreign
currency initially meant for the parallel market.

"The banking sector has to make sure operations are smooth. Some form
of stabilisation will be reached but not soon," he said.

However another economist, Professor Tony Hawkins, said stabilisation
of rates would not be achieved any time soon because of the unsustainable
increases in money supply. "The big question is how long it will continue
before government stops it," said Hawkins. "With the rate that money is
being printed, the rate can only go up and so will inflation. It is a
vicious cycle."

Hawkins said he estimated inflation to be above 400 000% adding that
it was likely to rise further with the new policy.

"There is no production to match the increases in supply of money,"
Hawkins said. "The new policy may see banks starve off the parallel market
but that will not stop the Zimbabwean dollar from losing ground against all
major currencies."

'RBZ Money Printer Will Run Overtime'

Zim Independent

Business
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:52
"We do not have any one way of dealing with Zimbabwe," said the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s acting director for the African
department Benedict Christensen last month.

She was not referring to the sorry state of the economy but the way in
which the authorities continue to implement policies that are sinking the
economy.

She was talking about the government’s over-reliance on printing of
money and domestic borrowing, all of which are key drivers of inflation.

Now they look set to break their own record in the face of salary and
allowance hikes awarded to civil servants and war veterans this month.

Teachers’ salaries were doubled from $3 billion to $6 billion this
month while war veterans’ allowances rose from $1,6 billion to $9 billion.

With a civil service of 200 000 members and war veterans whose number
ranges from 30 000 to 40 000, government now faces a tall order as its wage
bill is set to clock $2 quadrillion this month.

With a waning revenue base government is likely to increase its
reliance on the printer to fund the salary hikes.

There is no doubt the wage hikes will be inflationary.

Both the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) and the IMF have agreed that
money supply has been the major driver of inflation in Zimbabwe.

And inflation for its part has driven government’s domestic borrowing
to astronomical levels.

Economists say the latest wave of increases will push inflation to
unprecedented levels. Eric Bloch, an economist, said government would
attempt to borrow but was likely to be unsuccessful in its bid.

"Government will try to source money from the domestic market. The
problem is government’s poor credit-worthiness," said Bloch.

"They will have to turn to the RBZ for money and the RBZ simply prints
money to lend to government."

Economic commentator, John Robertson, said lenders in the domestic
market no longer have the capacity to meet the needs of government.

"Government has slowly been pinching away the nation’s savings through
very low interest rates, well below inflation," Robertson said.

"They are their own victims. No one has enough money to meet their
borrowing needs," he said.

The cash strapped government borrowed a staggering $5,2 quadrillion in
just two months.

The central bank governor, Gideon Gono, last week revealed that the
latest domestic debt figures now stood at $6,8 quadrillion.

The additional $2 quadrillion that government will require every month
to pay for salaries and allowances will increase money supply to
unprecedented levels and make inflation shoot through the roof.

The last inflation figure was availed in January when inflation stood
at 100 580%. The 165 000% credited to February was unconfirmed.

The money supply figure has been more elusive. It was last released in
December when it rose to 64 113%.

"I imagine that money supply should be almost as equal as inflation,"
Bloch said. "I think is has grown by an additional 20 000% on top of the 64
113% recorded last December."

During his first quarter last week Gono said the coming period would
be very inflationary.

A breakdown of the payments shows a dire situation. Teachers alone,
numbering between 90 000 and 100 000, will need an estimated $600 trillion
for their May salaries.

The rest of the civil service looks set to get $850 trillion while war
veterans’ allowances will see government forking out over $400 trillion a
month to push the total to $1,8 quadrillion.

The tally is not inclusive of operating expenditures to finance fuel,
electricity and food imports, capital expenditures, lease of buildings,
running of hospitals and operation of vehicles. It does not include
preparations for the presidential run-off. Then there is the huge interest
on the existent debt.

Government’s woes are not over. They face the very real prospect that
teachers will continue to strike until they are awarded the $18 billion a
month salaries they are demanding.

Apart from the bloated wage bill there is also central bank’s
quasi-fiscal operations like Agricultural Mechanisation Programme,
Agricultural Sector Productivity Enhancement Facility, Basic Commodities
Supply Side Intervention, are some of the programmes that the bank has
embarked on.

Oswell Binha, chairperson of the Harare Chamber of Commerce said
unnecessary expenditure has led to hyperinflation.

"Unwarranted public expenditure to cover deficits in a national
production system that we business could easily fill were it not due to the
lack of foreign currency, has been a major cause of hyperinflation," Binha
said.

"Government will soon have to learn the hard way that they might have
the authority to do as they please in every sector of the economy and
control almost everything but they are not in charge of inflation,"
Robertson said. "Inflation is the one thing they cannot control and have
failed to do so."

Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe secretary-general Ray Majongwe
said the $6 billion teachers had been awarded was far from adequate and said
they would push for an $18 billion monthly salary.

"We are not holding government to ransom," Majongwe said.

The situation could become more critical in the next few months
because of the grain deficit Zimbabwe has. Government will need to import
thousands of tonnes of wheat and maize because the resettled farmers have
once again failed to produce enough.

The biggest problem however is that the current global food shortages
mean that Zimbabwe will have to buy the wheat and maize at very high prices.

With virtually nothing in the foreign currency reserves the government
will inevitably have to print more Zimbabwean dollars to buy the little
foreign currency on the black market.

By Kuda Chikwanda and Jeslyn Dendere

No Pricing System For Tobacco

Zim Independent

Business
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:47
ZIMBABWE’s tobacco auction floors opened last week after protracted
squabbles between the farmers and government over price and exchange rates
to be used.

Even as the auction continues at the floors this week farmers were
still grumbling that they have been short-changed by the government.

Business reporter, Bernard Mpofu spoke to the president of the
Zimbabwe Association of Tobacco Growers (ZATG), Douglas Mahiya, about the
problems in the sector.

The ZATG represents indigenous tobacco farmers who took over land from
evicted white commercial farmers in the land reform programme.

Mpofu: Why is it that every year we have this stand-off between
tobacco farmers and the government over pricing. I mean every year the two
parties have to fight before the floors are opened.

Mahiya: The problem is that there is no clear pricing system that we
can stick to. There is no clear-cut communication structure between the
farmers and the authorities that set the price. There is no permanent link
between the two.

As farmers we don’t want to make our representations to the
responsible authorities before the selling season starts because we are
aware that by the time we get to the floors things would have changed
because of inflation.

We want a price that takes into account inflation figures. How can a
kilogramme of tobacco cost less that a bottle of soft drink? Why should gold
producers be treated differently from us tobacco farmers?

Mpofu: But the argument has always been that you farmers get
subsidised inputs and there is no way you can demand a market price for your
crop.

Mahiya: The issue is about inflation. Everyone is being affected by
inflation. You must also realise that there is nothing like free inputs for
us tobacco farmers.

The whole of last year we could not get Compound C fertiliser from the
formal market. We had to scrounge on the black market where the prices are
high. Why then should government deny us a market price?

The National Incomes and Pricing Commission is also a problem because
they are setting prices of commodities that are not available in the shops.
In the end it is us the farmers who suffer. By inputs I don’t mean
fertiliser only but also food for workers . Workers need sugar and mealie
meal which can be bought on the parallel market.

Mpofu: But the fact is that you farmers still get soft loans from the
banks at 20% per annum when inflation is around 165 000%.

Mahiya: That is true but you must look at how much that money is
worth. For example I know of farmers that got $25 billion for 25 hectares of
tobacco. That money is not even enough. The other problem is that the money
comes very late when it has already been eroded by inflation.

Mpofu: How much does it cost to produce a kilogramme of tobacco?

Mahiya: When farmers got the loans it was costing $30 billion per
hectare. Now it is about $170 billion. These are just rough estimates. If
the government wants to peg a price they must provide full loans that cover
the costs of production. At the moment we are just not getting enough money
even though it comes as cheap loans. The industry is hugely
under-capitalised.

Mpofu: But again you still get equipment under the farm mechanisation
programme where you have very concessionary payment terms.

Mahiya: That is not true. The people who are distributing the
equipment don’t know much about the industry. We the genuine farmers are not
benefiting at all. Most of the equipment is not getting to the intended
beneficiaries. How can a mere government official sitting in some office
know what the farmers here really want? There has been no survey to
establish what the tobacco farmers want.

This process must be done through unions because we know what
each member needs to increase production. Without the unions
government officials cannot target correctly.

Mpofu: Have you ever raised the issue of the disparity between the
prices of tobacco in Zimbabwe and other regional countries like Malawi with
government?

Mahiya: Yes there is a big difference. When the auction floors in
Malawi opened the price was US$11 per kilogramme. Now it is ranging between
US$7 and US$11. In Zimbabwe farmers are getting US$4. Our argument is that
the Zimbabwean farmer works very hard under very difficult conditions but he
gets little in return.

Mpofu: What is the situation at the floors now?

Mahiya: Farmers have started delivering but they are doing so in
protest. We need the money to start preparing for the next season. We need
to start preparing the seed beds. We have no choice but to deliver the
tobacco to the floors.

Mpofu: What do you think should be the ideal price of tobacco?

Mahiya: It’s not what I think should be the price but rather what
other farmers in region are getting. If others are getting between US$7 and
US$11 then we must be able to get the same. We also need a good support
price — a progressive pricing mechanism.

Mpofu: Could the slump in tobacco production have something to do with
these perennial pricing wars.Mahiya: Of course. You will notice that last
year we produced 100 000 000 kgs but this year the production has gone down
to 70 000 000 kgs. It might get worse if the pricing problems continue.

Mpofu: After so many years of fighting nothing has really changed in
the pricing system. It’s still the same. Do you sometimes feel that the
government just does not care about the problems in your sector?

Mahiya: No, the government cares but the problem is with some people
in the government. There are people who are not doing what they should be
doing. There are people who are feeding government with false information
about our concerns. Government is therefore making wrong decisions because
it is being fed false information.

Mpofu: Who are these people who are feeding government with lies?

Mahiya: There is no need for names now but you should know that these
are people who are responsible for giving information and advice to
government.

Mpofu: Some of your members say that they have not been paid their
bonuses for last year’s production. Is this true?

Mahiya: Part of the money was paid but we are still owed. If we had
got those bonuses in time everything would have been better because we would
have managed to produce more.

Coal, The New Gold

Zim Independent

Business
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:41
OVER the past year or so, listed coal and iron ore stocks have
attracted fierce attention, in line with a rotational switch out of equities
exposed to copper and, most certainly, uranium, and more recently, to gold
and silver.

A similar pattern has been seen in agricultural prices, where future
prices for wheat more than doubled since the start of 2007, but have since
plunged to multi month lows; soybeans have been recently trending sideways;
corn has moved gradually higher and, recently, rice has exploded
exponentially higher on panic-buying and country hoarding.

Physical agricultural prices and precious metals prices moved higher
mainly as "crisis" plays as the US moved aggressively into a deflationary
phase after August 2007, when the subprime mortgage bond crisis took hold.

US rate-cutting weakened the dollar further, providing a floor for all
dollar commodity prices. Some agricultural prices also benefited from
ongoing government support for increased production of biofuels.

Since early March this year, investment and speculative players have
increasingly indicated a growing belief that the global credit crisis is
moving closer to a floor, and, more recently, that US rate-cutting is
nearing an end, underpinning a dollar that should at least find a floor.

But energy prices have remained high not least on signs that oil
suppliers are prepared to do little, if anything, to increase output, and on
persistently growing demand from emerging markets, led by China.

The structural increase in demand for energy raw materials (led by
oil, natural gas and coal) has spurred persistent increases in prices for
the past decade.

Price trend lines have occasionally moved into mania mode, in line
with similar developments in other commodity prices (rice currently;
uranium, last year), and even in some equity markets (the Shanghai Composite
Index is currently half its level of October 2007).

In line with increasing recognition that commodities are an
identifiable "asset class", seven years into the commodity prices
supercycle, investors and speculators are increasingly sophisticated in
sector rotation.

Where oil majors and big gold stocks have long been known and
recognised as equity investments, the newer wave of capital flows has
identified listed coal stocks and listed iron ore stocks as the plays of
2008 — so far at least.

Oil and gold stocks were earlier plays. Precious metals (with the
possible exception of platinum) are taking a breather as the US’s reflation
theme appears to be moving towards consolidation.

Prices for listed base metal stocks (led by copper) are lagging
developments in listed coal and iron ore stocks mainly due to prior
performance, in acknowledgement that many base metal mining costs are
substantially lower than base metal prices.

Prices for listed oil stocks are close to highs, underpinning strong
investor sentiment toward energy raw materials.

The economics for coal (and a number of other commodities, not least
iron ore) are dictated by the physical logistics of moving huge tonnages of
bulk commodities.

The seaborne coal and iron ore markets are dominated by relatively few
players that have spent literally decades of poor pricing developing pricing
mechanisms that are currently powerful and effective. In general, coal
prices have doubled in the past year.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest diversified resources stock,
recently announced that it was concluding metallurgical coal contract prices
for 2008 that were 206% to 240% higher than 2007 prices. — mineweb.

Chickens Coming Home To Roost

Zim Independent

Opinion
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:10
IT is a sad reality but a fact that if farmer X has 43 cattle and
farmer Y owns 48, the latter would be considered wealthier than the former.

In football they say that to be a champion, one has to beat the
champion. And in politics one has to beat the president to become one.

So is that not what Morgan Tsvangirai did in the March 29 elections?
In fact he is tipped to be the next Zimbabwean president after the run-off
to be held on a date still to be announced.

According to the official figures released by the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commision last week, Tsvangirai led the presidential race as he garnered
47,9% of the total votes cast whilst Robert Mugabe, his closest rival
collected 4,7% less with 43,2% of the votes.

This automatically means a run-off and Zimbabweans are bracing
themselves for this two horse race.The question of what each of the
contenders is going to do is what matters.

For the old horse Mugabe, age seems not to be on his side in that it
makes him unappealing and also difficult for him to win back the favour of
the electorate.

He has now resorted to violence in "dealing with" the rural population
who shocked him by voting for the opposition.

Previously rural areas were perceived as Zanu PF strongholds but it
seems the tide has turned.

It is however almost impossible with the current socio-economic crisis
for those who initially voted for the opposition to change their minds and
vote for Zanu PF.

I would think it more possible for those who voted for the latter to
change and vote for the former.

As for Tsvangirai, he should remain calm and composed whilst his foes
ponder over how to woo back the electorate.

The only thing is to come back, begin countrywide rallies to explain
and articulate the MDC’s stance and strengthen the people’s resolve to kick
out this dictatorship.

Indeed the chickens have come home to roost. Tsvangirai’s rule is
imminent.

By Taddious Manyepo writes from Harare.

Tsvangirai Now Image Of A New Zimbabwe

Zim Independent

Opinion
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:55
ONLY a few weeks ago, Zimbabwe celebrated its 28th Independence
anniversary and for the first time since the end of colonialism, citizens
wondered whether their vote would be counted;

whether their civil rights would be protected by a government that was
born from the womb of racial oppression; whether justice would prevail and
the promise of Independence would still be honoured.

Zimbabweans have now been officially informed after a month of anxiety
that only two individuals remain standing and when the storm eventually
passes, only one of them will remain standing as President.

Who will it be? Who best captures the imagination of the Zimbabwean
people? What does Zimbabwe need at this juncture in its history? If Mugabe,
then what next? Can you imagine what Zimbabwe will be like in five years
with Mugabe at the helm? If you cannot, then you still have a chance to
voice your opinion.

The real difference will come when people choose to be engaged in the
debates of the time and become the change they want to see.

Anyone who does not believe that Mugabe offers the change they want to
see, there is no other choice than voting for and supporting Morgan
Tsvangirai.

For the first time, President Mugabe goes into an election without
knowing its outcome and this must be an experience for him.

The people of Zimbabwe appear to be serious in reclaiming their
heritage and in actively shaping their future.

The first step into a new future was the transformation of Zanu PF
into a minority party.

In as much as Mugabe had wanted the election to be about the past,
albeit oblivious of his record, the people of Zimbabwe seem to have other
ideas.

Mugabe offers no new ideas but would like to take Zimbabwe back to
1979 to recapture the rare moment when Zimbabweans broke down colonial
barriers with the hope that the country would be inched closer to the ideals
that informed the revolutionary struggle.

Mugabe huddled with brilliant minds of his day, some of whom have been
condemned to retire in abject poverty, and embarked on a journey that was
expected to transform the exclusive colonial state into an inclusive one.

It was obvious then that there was a fierce urgency to change the
course of history.

Mugabe was not elected in 1980 to just make history but deliver on the
promise of Independence.

Now 28 years later, it must and should not be enough just to look back
in wonder at how far Zimbabweans have been reduced to become spectators
while the country has been sliding into a dangerous economic and political
quagmire, but it is time to seriously think about whether Mugabe still is
best suited to take the country forward given the journey still to be
traversed.

Predictably, Mugabe has already offered himself for the final showdown
against his own record.

It would be wrong to suggest that Mugabe’s competitor is Tsvangirai
for it is really his own record.

Twenty eight years in office is a long time for anyone to run on his
record and yet it is not obvious that Mugabe has accepted that he should
take some responsibility for plunging the country into an economic abyss.

Zimbabwe is at a historic and defining crossroads and the run-off
provides yet another opportunity for Zimbabweans to pronounce their opinion
about what time it is in Zimbabwe. Is it Mugabe time or is it time up?

This year and this election come at a time of great challenge and
promise.

Zimbabwe is challenged and citizens find themselves fearful of their
own government and less respected globally than at anytime since
Independence.

It is a time for change that citizens can believe in. I am not
convinced that if in the rare chance that Mugabe is re-elected, hope will be
restored and the country can be put back to work.

Accordingly, Zimbabweans have another chance to turn the leaf and
choose a fundamentally different future not only in terms of policies and
style of leadership but a chance to heal a divided nation.

It must be accepted that some of the challenges that confront the
country that have been made worse by President Mugabe and his
administration, existed long before he took office but were not met for
decades because of a post-colonial political system that has failed the
Zimbabwean and African people.

I refer to challenges like health care; energy and environment, ethics
and political morality, education, rural development, the economy, rule of
law, urban policy, poverty, security, and civil rights.

We must accept that President Mugabe is a skilled politician who is
now a master at employing textbook campaign strategies and tactics. However,
the country requires a break from the failures of his administration and it
is time to be honest about the challenges that Zimbabweans face.

Zimbabweans need to be told what they need to know and not what they
already know about the vices of colonialism.

This election is really about the future and not the past. As
Zimbabweans prepare for the run-off, it is important that they resist from
surrendering their future to a president whose world view is a threat to
prosperity for all, opportunity and justice.

We all know that in Mugabe’s mind, winning elections and staying in
power means everything. But going forward, even people who may have doubts
about Tsvangirai must realise this is a time when differences must be put
aside in the interests of advancing Zimbabwe’s promise.

Some have proposed a government of national unity as a solution but as
President Mugabe has said before, competition is healthy and it should not
be the case that losers end up miraculously as winners just
because they control the arsenal to intimidate others.

The people of Zimbabwe need to move forward and it seems that for
better or worse, Tsvangirai is the chosen one and history must allow him to
lead and define his own agenda without the fear of the ghosts of the past 28
years.

Any supporter of Zanu PF must surely be aware of what time it is and
it is not too late to smell the coffee and in the interests of the country
send the message to President Mugabe that he is alone in the run-off and the
real final push is in the making.

The country should mean more than the fate of Mugabe and now is a time
when only two names are on the menu of Zimbabwean voters to eloquently
convey a message that it is time for President Mugabe to look for another
career.

Zimbabwe needs change and the mere fact that the name of Tsvangirai is
still on the ballot means for the first time, Zimbabweans are ready to break
from the past and textbook politics that President Mugabe is good at.

By Mutumwa Mawere: A Zimbabwean born businessman based in South
Africa.

This Violence Must Stop Now

Zim Independent

Opinion
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:47
PRESIDENT Mugabe stated, as he cast his vote on March 29, that he
could not live with his conscience if he were to rig elections.

That sounded like a lofty moral position that many Zimbabweans in
their experience will have scoffed at. They could not remember a single
election since 1980 that could escape the tag of "rigged".

The countrywide violence that is currently going on is worse than a
technical rigging of elections. In this violence, innocent Zimbabweans are
being brutalised, tortured and murdered.

In the majority of these instances those perpetrating these dastardly
acts claim to be doing so to secure Mugabe’s victory in the event of a
run-off of the presidential elections.

Other perpetrators justify these terrible acts on the basis that those
who voted against Mugabe had no right to do so.

The end result of this violence is to force people either to vote in a
certain way or not to vote at all.

The army unashamedly staged what is referred to as "Operation
Mavhoterapapi". (Operation how did you vote?) No army spokesperson has
denied the presence of this evil operation.

Hundreds of people who have sought refuge in churches, and party
offices show terrible scars of torture. They are spiritually, physically and
emotionally devastated. These are our people. These are Zimbabwean men and
women, boys and girls who had hoped that their vote would rescue them from
years of misery inflicted on them by Zanu PF’s blind and directionless rule.

These are our citizens who have experienced only two forms of violent
governments in their lifetime. A hundred years of colonial rule left them
humiliated with their humanity impugned.

Twenty-eight years of Mugabe’s rule has injured and harmed their
aspirations.

The question we all ask is why? Why inflict so much pain on innocent
people whose crime seems to be their desire to change their dire
circumstances through the vote?

They come from as far afield as Uzumba Maramba Pfungwe. Some are from
Lupane, Beitbridge, Buhera, Insiza, Matobo etc.

The story is the same: men came into their homes, sometimes at night,
sometimes during the day to inflict retribution because they voted for the
MDC.

All these perpetrators have been identified as Zanu PF activists led
by one or two soldiers plus the usual war veteran.

Heads have been severely cut with pangas, bodies burnt with melted
plastic or lacerated with barbed wire or some other sharp instrument. They
have been displaced from their homes.

Homesteads have been burnt to the ground.. As the cold winter
approaches they are in despair. Some have been murdered leaving widows,
widowers, orphans and distraught relatives to contemplate the future without
their loved ones.

The struggle for one person one vote was supposed to confer total
sovereignty to the people. The vote ensures that all Zimbabweans achieve
equality in exercising the right to vote for who should lead them.

Mugabe tells us that a vote for the opposition is a wasted vote, thus
predetermining what our choices should be.

The beatings, torture, murder and banishments, one must conclude are
designed to achieve this terrible objective. This is vote rigging of the
worst kind.

The vote, according to Zanu PF, is valid only if it has been given to
them. Perhaps that explains the pressure that is being exerted on villagers
by so called war veterans who claim that villagers voted "wrongly" when they
voted for the opposition.

We can all quibble about statistics, namely how many people have been
killed, how many have been tortured, how many have been injured and how many
have been displaced.

These are cold, faceless numbers. What should be of major concern to
us is the humiliating nature of violence.

It is its brutalising effect on our persons that should worry us.

If a government that fought colonialism, ostensibly to restore its
people’s dignity, is complicity in the physical violation of the bodily
integrity of its own people, then what was the purpose of the liberation
struggle?

After 28 years in which our people have witnessed Gukurahundi,
Murambatsvina, chronic food shortages (people go hungry for days on end) and
all forms of violence during elections, can we sit back and claim to be free
people?

I appeal to all of us to think seriously about the reconstruction of
our state. We should all examine whether a presidential run-off under these
conditions of violence would be the best way of reconstructing our state.

Our population is too traumatised for a proper electoral verdict to
occur. We need to find a deliberate way of de-escalating tensions in our
country. It should not be beyond us to initiate dialogue around these
issues. It took ZEC 34 days to announce the results of the March 29 poll.

The void created uncertainly and spawned the climate of violence
currently engulfing the country.

As a result the whole electoral process has been severely compromised.

We will need extraordinary measures to restore confidence in a process
that has never enjoyed popular acclaim in the first case.

Whatever is the case ,the immediate task is for the state institutions
tasked with the responsibility of protecting the citizens to stop the
violence immediately.

Paul Themba Nyathi :Director of Elections in the Mutambara formation
of the MDC. He is writing in his personal capacity.

Violence Won't Rescue Mugabe

Zim Independent

Opinion
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:38
PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe will need more than violence to win the
anticipated presidential election run-off against MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai,
political analysts have said.

The analysts have argued that the 84-year-old Zanu PF leader has in
the past used violence but failed to garner support prompting him to rig
elections to secure victory for himself and the ruling party.

Mugabe lost the March 29 presidential election to Tsvangirai, but the
opposition leader failed to garner the mandatory 50% plus votes to avoid a
run-off.

According to results released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
(ZEC) a month after the poll, Tsvangirai won 47,9% of the votes cast, Mugabe
43,2% and independent candidate Simba Makoni 8,3%. Another independent
candidate Langton Towungana garnered 0,6% of the vote.

In terms of the country’s electoral law, a presidential run-off should
be held by May 23 — 21 days after the announcement of the first-round poll
results.

"Violence alone cannot win an election for Mugabe," said University of
Zimbabwe political science lecturer Brian Ngwenya.

"In the 2000 parliamentary and 2002 presidential elections Zanu PF
stole the elections after violence had failed to deliver the desired
results."

Ngwenya said that despite the post-March 29 election violence
allegedly being perpetrated by state security agents, Zanu PF militia and
war veterans, Tsvangirai would cruise to victory.

"The tide of change is so strong and cannot be stopped by violence,"
Ngwenya argued.

He said as long as the run-off is observed by the international
community, Tsvangirai would triumph against Mugabe who has been in power
since Independence in 1980.

"There is no way Zanu PF can win a transparent election in Zimbabwe
considering the mess in which the country is in," Ngwenya added.

A Harare-based political scientist who spoke on condition of anonymity
said Mugabe needed more than violence to win the run-off.

"Despite the terror campaigns by the militia in the rural areas, Zanu
PF is going to lose dismally in the run-off," the analyst said.

He argued that Zimbabwe’s political, economic and social crisis would
spur the electorate to dump Mugabe whom they blame for the country’s ills.

"The economic and social service conditions in Zimbabwe have made
Mugabe unelectable," the analyst said.

"In the eyes of the electorate, a vote against Mugabe is a vote for
better social and economic conditions."

Another analyst, Michael Mhike, recently told the Zimbabwe Independent
that the violent Operation Mavhoterapapi (where did you vote?) would not
work.

"The electorate is resolute — Mugabe must go. No amount of murder,
torture and assault will discourage the people of Zimbabwe from voting out
Mugabe and Zanu PF."

Mhike said the electorate would reject Mugabe in the same way the
Matabeleland region has been snubbing him since Independence in 1980.

"Despite unleashing the Gukurahundi in the 1980s in Matabeleland,
Mugabe and Zanu PF lost each and every election that has been held in the
region," Mhike said.

"This time around, the electorate throughout the country has rejected
Mugabe and the same will apply in the run-off."

During the Gukurahundi era, over 20 000 civilians were killed by the
North Korean-trained Five Brigade in what the government claimed was a
counter-insurgency operation against PF Zapu dissidents in the Matabeleland
and Midlands provinces. Mugabe is yet to apologise for the disturbances
despite Zanu PF and PF Zapu in 1987 becoming a united party.

The closest he came to offer an apology was when he described the
Gukurahundi era as a "moment of madness".

But political scientist and academic Eldred Masunungure is of the view
that Mugabe can in fact win against Tsvangirai through force.

He argued that violence has always been Zanu PF’s traditional tool
whenever there is a tight contest.

"Zanu PF has realised that violence was the missing factor in the
just-ended elections and this time around they are going to use it to ensure
victory for Mugabe," Masunungure argued.

"In the March election Mugabe used buses, computers, generators and
enhanced civil service salaries, but still he lost. For them, violence is
the only means for a clear win for Mugabe."

Masunungure said the first round election revealed to Zanu PF that
inducements did not achieve anything, and that violence had previously
delivered the results for the party.

He said Zanu PF would plug all loopholes before the run-off to secure
Mugabe’s victory.

"They will put in motion all measures that were not there on March 29
to ensure a Zanu PF victory," he added.

He argued that Tsvangirai has not been dominant in the Mashonaland
provinces and the current violence could be used by Mugabe to consolidate
his dominance in those areas.

While other analysts acknowledged that the alleged deployment of
soldiers, war veterans and youth militia in the countryside was
intimidating, they argued that the electorate was determined to see an end
to Zanu PF’s misrule and lack of social development policies.

The MDC spokesperson, Nelson Chamisa, alleged this week that over 20
supporters of the opposition party have since been killed throughout the
country by Mugabe’s soldiers, youth militia and war veterans.

The party also claimed that 5 000 families have been displaced and
over 800 homesteads burnt down since the first round of election.

"This is a humanitarian crisis of gigantic proportions which now needs
the intervention of the United Nations. It is a disaster that the
international community is ignoring," Chamisa said.

However, the police deny that there was post-election violence and has
since challenged anyone with such information to furnish the force with
details.

In the countdown to the 2002 presidential election, the Human Rights
Forum said there were 11 456 cases of gross human rights violations
perpetrated by Zanu PF militia against the MDC.

Many of the violations involved murder, rape and torture. The forum
said the violence was systematic, co-ordinated and occurred in all
constituencies throughout the country, with the rural areas being the worst
affected.

Ruling party politicians, the forum noted, made numerous inflammatory
statements that encouraged violence. Mugabe won the presidential election by
400 000 votes against Tsvangirai, who challenged the result in court
claiming rigging. The courts are yet to make a ruling on the former trade
union leader’s application.

Fears abound that the 2002 violence would be surpassed this time
around as the odds are stacked against Mugabe who is seeking a sixth term in
office.

By Lucia Makamure

Comment: When Will This Violence End?

Zim Independent

Comment
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:14
REPORTS of violence continue to pour in with claims by the opposition
that at least 20 innocent villagers have been butchered to death in the past
month.

Hospitals have provided the best evidence of this violence.

They are teeming with victims of this senseless terror.

The afflicted carry all manner of injuries including broken limbs,
burns, lacerations and badly bruised buttocks.

Their tales are consistent with systematic terror and they have all
pointed accusing fingers at Zanu PF supporters, police, army and other
security forces.

Zanu PF’s story of violence is well-ducumented.

Civic groups monitoring the situation have said that the situation is
deteriorating with each passing day with hundreds of people requiring relief
aid after being displaced from their homes.

There are reports of military deployments in the countryside and the
setting up of torture bases in Mashonaland Central and East.

The Zanu PF government — not for the first time — stands accused of
fighting its own people and inflicting pain on those accused of not
supporting the perpetuity of President Mugabe’s rule.

As accusations continue to pour in, state institutions accused of
violence have concomitantly raised the tempo of denial.

Firstly the government denied that there was any violence around the
country.

Then there were accusations that it was the opposition perpetrating
the violence and not security personnel and Zanu PF supporters.

This week the army sent us a statement advising that the military had
nothing to do with the violence across the country, but people are
complaining about being beaten by soldiers.

In between, there have been statements by government officials
suggesting that the police and Zanu PF supporters had a right to beat up
opposition supporters upon “provocation”.

We heard the same defence of institutional violence from the highest
office when Tsvangirai together with opposition and civic leaders were
bludgeoned by police last year.

They would be “bashed” again if they provoked the police, President
Mugabe said.

Last Saturday State Security minister Didymus Mutasa was quoted by the
Globe & Mail of Canada justifying some of the beatings.

Mutasa said the MDC members were attacked only when they seriously
provoked Zanu PF supporters.

“They are being beaten because they are provoking people,” said
Mutasa. “People don’t cease to be human because of an election. They still
get irritated by an act of provocation and beat they will, if they are
angry.”

Voila! But what kind of leadership is this from a minister entrusted
with the security of the country?

Ordinary villagers have ceased to be human because they have been
turned into instruments of terror by senseless politicians.

The attempt at brushing away the violence or justifying it in the name
of maintaining law and order has however failed to conceal the phenomenon
which is attracting a bad press for Mugabe and Zanu PF.

There has been a sprinkling of stories in the state media trying to
link the opposition to the violence and some suggesting that a couple of
farmers had used pepper spray to inflict harm on a whole battalion of war
veterans.

It would be foolish for the government to expect to arouse local and
international sympathy from this feeble attempt to portray themselves as
victims — with all the might of state institutions on call.

The history of Zimbabwean politics is littered with violence whose
bloody trail leads to the doors of state institutions.

This past record of terror can never be laundered by denying the
self-evident state culpability.

History has also shown that political violence does not always just
erupt.

It is caused by influential people and institutions for selfish ends.

It is usually poor people who are used as pawns by so-called political
liberators.

There are parts of the country where violence has erupted every time
there is an election.

This is a disturbing trend which seems to suggest that there are
politicians who now regard violence as an acceptable political process and
part and parcel of the Zimbabwean political culture.

They also regard pain, misery and death as an occupational hazard in
the political game. It is not surprising therefore that those who murdered
MDC activists and farmers six years ago are walking free.

But this has to stop forthwith because there is no society which has
ever developed and prospered on the back of the sort of violence we are
currently experiencing in the country.

We welcome efforts by the international community to probe the extent
of the violence in the country.

This undertaking must ultimately ensure that violence stops.

It is the duty of politicians to show some kind of maturity without
inciting acts of more violence, which brings misery to some while others
revel in it.

Any government that makes it its business to wage war against unarmed
civilians does not deserve to lead such a people.

The Zanu PF government was rejected at the polls because of its
culpability in the current crisis.

Adding violence and terror to its already tainted CV will not improve
the situation. It’s time for a change.

Zimbabwe needs to move forward.

Candid Comment: Ominous Sign On The Horizon

Zim Independent

Comment
Thursday, 08 May 2008 19:05
AS Zimbabwe charts the rough political seas in the aftermath of
elections which left President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF vanquished,
there is an ominous sign on the horizon: danger ahead.

Mugabe and his ever-shrinking clique of militant Zanu PF diehards,
after recovering from the electoral shock, are now in a renewed fighting
mood.

Their public statements, menacing rhetoric, threats and, of course,
state- sponsored violence paint a gloomy picture of the situation.

With reports of a nationwide campaign of violence becoming all the
time more undeniable, the country is going through not just a touch-and-go
period, but a dangerously rough patch.

The last time it happened was in 2002. Prior to that there was the
reign of terror in the western region soon after Independence.

In both those situations thousands of innocent civilians died at the
hands of what are supposed to be their liberators and leaders.

That makes the situation such a sad tale.

Joshua Nkomo warned in the 1980s that the culture of violence Zanu PF
had brought into Zimbabwe would not end.

If he was alive today he would be feeling vindicated. It’s a disgrace
most Zimbabweans are only starting to complain now about this regime when
others saw the problem way back.

Although Mugabe’s government achieved a lot in the past, it has
succeeded in undermining its own legacy through Stone Age politics and
monumental leadership and policy failures.

It is very difficult to find parallels of such magnitude of failure in
the region.

If only Zimbabweans had rejected violence at the beginning this may
not be happening now. But the idea is not to look back but forward.

However, looking into the future without a historical perspective
produces distorted images and results in fatal denialism.

Being in denial is Zanu PF’s stock-in-trade. Anyone who read Emmerson
Mnangagwa’s statement on elections last Saturday would know what I’m talking
about.

According to Mnangagwa, who featured prominently during the 1980s low
intensity civil war in the western region, Mugabe and his party lost because
of a flawed electoral process, disenfranchisement of voters, the bribery of
electoral officials by the MDC, and huge sponsorship of the opposition by
Britain, the United States and Australia.

In other words, Mugabe and Zanu PF’s defeat had nothing to do with the
material social and economic conditions of the voters, according to
Mnangagwa.

Their defeat has no link with the chronic shortages of food, fuel,
foreign currency, drugs, electricity, water and basic goods.

It has no connection at all with high employment, poverty and
suffering. It’s all the fault of electoral flaws, bribery, "hostile" media
and western detractors.

But it is these objective conditions on the ground which Mnangagwa is
airbrushing, combined with the self-evident fact that Mugabe and Zanu PF are
now unelectable, that will bury the incumbent regime.

There is no regime in recent history that has survived elections in
such economic conditions.

Zanu PF also denies there is state-sponsored violence. They denied
this in the 1980s, 2000 and 2005. But their crass denials are no longer
taken seriously.

That’s why a South African investigation team is currently in the
country to probe the issue. The African Union sent an envoy to Harare this
week to raise the issue of violence, among a wide-range of others concerning
the electoral crisis rocking the country.

A Sadc delegation also flew in this week as the flurry of diplomatic
activity intensifies. South African President Thabo Mbeki is also coming
today to Harare for the same reason.

The United Nations is almost on full alert over Zimbabwe. African and
World leaders now keep Zimbabwe firmly on the radar.

Their interests are varied and competing but the current crisis is the
entry point.

The elections crisis is set to deepen as the presidential poll run-off
is now unlikely to occur within the scheduled three weeks.

This will paralyse the already troubled country.

The realignment elections have been going on since January, a new
record for Zimbabwe.

In the meantime, political violence will escalate. Unless the
international community intervenes there will be heavy casualties in the
process. The warning signs are there.

ZEC last week finally announced presidential election results more
than a month after voting, declaring no outright winner, which thus
necessitates a runoff between Tsvangirai and Mugabe.

Mugabe wasted no time in saying he would contest the runoff — his last
and only chance of political survival after being defeated by Tsvangirai in
the first round of voting.

It is incongruous that Mugabe anxiously wants to contest a runoff he
is almost certain to lose, while Tsvangirai wants to avoid the poll he is
all but assured of winning if the election is free and fair.

This sounds illogical, but there is method in their madness.

For Mugabe, this is the only chance he has to survive, but Tsvangirai
can afford to think twice about it. After all, he triumphed in the first
round by a credible margin and can vacillate while shuffling a deck or
spinning a wheel.

Mugabe is damaged goods — he can’t win a free and fair election.

But if Mugabe does succeed this time, he should get an entry in the
Guinness Book of Records for stolen elections, much like controversial
Canadian politician John Turmel, who made history for contesting and losing
the most polls — 66 by October 2007.

Erich Bloch: Forex Reforms Will Aid Productivity

Zim Independent

Comment
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:32
IN last week’s monetary policy statement (MPS), the governor of the
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), Gideon Gono very courageously sought once
again to address the devastatingly negative consequences of foreign currency
shortages.

Government’s appallingly mismanagement of the economy for more than
ten years has had catastrophic repercussions.

In the MPS Gono identified 20 key challenges to Zimbabwe’s domestic
environment, over and above diverse global challenges which impact upon
Zimbabwe.

Foremost of the local challenges enumerated by the governor, apart
from the challenge of food shortages, was shortages of foreign exchange and,
as a by-product thereof, fuel, electricity and basic commodity scarcities,
as well as insufficiencies of agricultural inputs and compromised heath
delivery systems.

Allied to all these challenges, he made reference to the export sector
underperformance, due to "foreign exchange constraints". (In fact, as wholly
correct as that is, the underperformance occasioned by inadequate
availability of foreign exchange has devastated the productivity of
virtually all economic sectors, and especially so the manufacturing,
agricultural, mining and tourism sectors.)

There have been innumerable causes of the paucity of foreign exchange
that bedevils Zimbabwe, including government’s foolhardy, near-total
destruction of agriculture, which has resulted in not only minimal foreign
currency earnings, as compared to the wealth of forex that previously flowed
from the export of tobacco, grains, beef, tea and coffee, cotton, and much
else.

Compounding that predominant shrinkage of forex generation has been,
amongst much else, the near total alienation of the international community
in general, and first world developed countries, the Bretton Woods,
institutions, and the international investment and banking communities.

In so doing, including recurrent failures of Zimbabwe to settle
funding debts, almost all international financial aid has been withheld from
Zimbabwe.

Balance of payments support was discontinued, aid was markedly
reduced, banks withheld lines of credit, and foreign direct investment (FDI)
dwindled to a trickle.

Zimbabwe has unhesitatingly accused, and vehemently condemned, the
world at large for imposing "illegal" sanctions, albeit without foundation,
save and except that the USA’s Zimbabwe Democracy Act obligates that country
to veto funding to Zimbabwe by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the
World Bank.

However, one of the greatest causes of the Zimbabwean forex drought is
that government has steadfastly refused to recognise the need for foreign
currency exchange rates to move realistically, in relation to inflation,
failing which all viability of exports is destroyed.

The appropriate movement in exchange rates is a prerequisite for
exporters to be able to recover inflation-driven increases in production and
operational costs, failing which production for export is grievously
impaired.

But government has dogmatically resisted meaningfully devaluations,
obdurately ignoring the cataclysmic consequences.

As a result, at different times RBZ has desperately sought to address
the issue, but its ability to do so has been severely restricted as, in
principle, in terms of prevailing legislation, exchange rates are determined
by the Minister of Finance.

The constraint is fortunately not absolute, and hence at one time RBZ
was able to operate foreign currency auctions, and about a year ago
introduced a Drought Mitigation and Economic Stabilisation Fund, succeeded
more recently with a Overnight Investment Window, both of which facilities
enabled RBZ to supplement the inadequate exchange rates with abnormally
great interest rates.

As commendable as the intents of these measures were, they could only
have some limited palliative effect, rather than to heal the intensely
counterproductive repercussions of the government determined, specious
exchange rates.

Now Gono and his team have resorted to a far more substantive measure
to counter the ill-effects of government’s exchange rate policies.

It is far from a total resolution, for constraints continue to
prevail. Effectively, for the last four years the governor has had his hands
handcuffed, been thrown in the deep end, and expected to survive.

The handcuffs still prevent him from swimming freestyle, and
distances, but in his latest MPS he found a way to tread water, and even
swim a length or two.

In order to restore viability to exporters, and thereby ensure
enhanced foreign currency generation, Gono announced two significant,
interrelated foreign exchange market reforms.

The first is designed to avail exporters of viability-related exchange
rates.

With immediate effect, RBZ introduced a "willing-buyer,
willing-seller, priority-focused twinning arrangement in the foreign
exchange market", whereby authorised dealers (banks and like licensed
institutions), will match sellers and buyers of foreign exchange, guided by
a pre-determined priority list set from time to time by RBZ (initially
comprising utilisation of the foreign exchange transacted for the
importation of food and food production requisites, fuel and electricity,
non-food industrial inputs, public and commercial transportation, school
fees, business travel, professional fees, medical related goods, and diverse
other specified items).

Exchange rates determined by the willing-buyer, willing-seller
transactions within the interbank market will be applied to the purchase by
RBZ of mandatorily surrendered foreign exchange.

Moreover, trading within the interbank market on the willing-buyer,
willing-seller basis applies now not only to sales of foreign exchange (in
excess of mandatory surrenders) by exporters, but also to NGOs, embassies,
international organisations, Zimbabweans in the Diaspora, and other foreign
currency holders.

Reinforcing the considerable benefit of sellers obtaining somewhat
more realistic exchange rates than heretofore (notwithstanding that such
rates may not wholly recognise the real value of foreign exchange), the
governor also announced that the heretofore mandatory surrender by exporters
of 35% of export proceeds to RBZ will be subject to reduction to
performance-linked surrender thresholds.

Exporters who manage to enhance their export performance will be
entitled to retain a greater portion of their forex earnings to fund their
operations, provided that they utilise their foreign currency retentions
within 21 days of receipt.

A 10% increase in exports over March 2008 levels will lower the
mandatory surrender to 25% of forex earnings, and for each further 5%, of
export growth, the surrender level falls by five percentage points, up to a
30% increase in exports, which lowers the surrender levels to 5%, and if the
export incremental exceeds 35% of March, 2008 levels, the mandatory
surrender will be as low as 2,5%.

Not only will these new foreign exchange policies restore viability to
most exporter operations, and thereby yield greater usage of productive
capacity but, in addition, the greater foreign exchange earnings, and the
enhanced retention thereof by the exporters, should considerably reduce
volumes of unlawful trading in the foreign currency parallel and black
markets.

As a result, although there will be significant continuing trafficking
in those markets, the months ahead should witness progressively increased
exchange rates therein.

This increased productivity should result in some substantive
containment of the gargantuan hyperinflation plaguing Zimbabwe.

Inevitably, however, those positive developments will only materialise
over a period of time, as there is an unavoidable lead time until the
enhanced exports materialise.

Muckraker: The Vituperations Of A Sore Loser

Zim Independent

Comment
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:18
IS there anybody in the state media who will tell us the truth? The
ultimate deception was a Herald heading on Saturday which claimed there was
"No Winner" in the presidential election.

So the man who came first did not win? Well, none of the candidates
secured an absolute majority. Therefore there was "No Winner".

So that’s how it works? And if President Mugabe had won 47% of the
vote and Morgan Tsavangirai 43%, would the Herald have told us there was no
winner?

Putting aside this gross dishonesty for which we waited six weeks,
there was another bit of electoral news on the same page: "Brown humiliated
in UK council polls".

So the news of a local government setback for the Labour leader in the
UK eclipses the manifest humiliation of our own leader whose pathetic 43% of
the poll was the best he could do after blandishments, threats and
inducements on an epic scale?

Perhaps the worst dimension to all this was Zanu PF’s claim that the
results "did not reflect the genuine expression of the will of the
Zimbabwean people". This was after Mugabe had told us (when he thought he
was winning) to accept the results with good grace.

Emmerson Mnangagwa complained about anomalies, malpractice and
inflation of opposition figures.

"The anomalies revealed a pattern in the management of the electoral
process which was biased against Zanu PF and in favour of the MDC,"
Mnangagwa claimed.

In other words all the things Zanu PF used to get away with are now
the subject of bitter disputation!

Zesn was accused of being a conduit for British and American funds
used to bribe electoral officials. Did the police find any evidence of that
in their raid on Zesn’s offices two weeks ago?

"In short Zanu PF and all its candidates, especially its presidential
candidate, feel aggrieved and were greatly prejudiced by attempts by the MDC
and its sponsors to tamper with the electoral system," Mnangagwa declared.

Again, has this been proved? Or is it, as we suspect, the
vituperations of a sore loser? We thought the lengthy sifting of votes in 21
constituencies was designed to produce the smoking gun Zanu PF was looking
for. Evidently it proved elusive.

Tafataona Mahoso was equally bitter with voters.

"What Dr Gono did not reveal (in his latest monetary statement) is the
shocking fact," Mahoso said, "that a very significant minority among our own
people, 47% of those who voted in the recently concluded harmonised
elections, in fact voted for the very same foreign-sponsored party which
asked for and received the curse of illegal sanctions upon the people…The
continuing existence of such a foreign-sponsored party and the existence of
such a significant minority who elected 99 sanctions-loving MPs into our
parliament now constitutes a national scandal…"

Mahoso obviously hasn’t learnt Rule No 1 in politics: Never insult the
voters.

He is evidently one of those who view the people as unreliable and in
need of reconstitution.

He is unable to grasp the fact that sanctions were the product of a
systematic assault upon voters in 2002 which is now repeating itself.

There will be no respite for Mahoso or Gono as long as they persist in
supporting a brutal and delinquent regime.

And is our information correct, that Gono was among the recalcitrant
gang of service chiefs and others who beseeched Mugabe immediately after the
poll not to surrender to the democratic outcome? A clarification from the
governor would be useful.

Meanwhile, we were amused amidst the gloom to hear that Gono "waved
his magic wand once more" in his monetary policy review to "bring relief to
the majority of Zimbabweans". His statement was "just what the doctor
ordered", the Herald declared.

Herald reporters who engage in such Pollyanna reporting should ask
themselves what happened on all the previous occasions he got his wand out.

He may tickle their fancy with that wand of his but the country is no
better off. So stop trying to fool the public.

And by the way, where else has a central bank governor changed policy
on the back of advice from a joker?

Gono confessed that he increased cash withdrawal limits after taking
advice from ZTV’s Dr Zobha.

It is not surprising though because both doctors never read for their
PhDs.

Zobha awarded himself one for playing the fool while Gono had one
bestowed on him for managing royal accounts.

A Doctor of Patronage taking advice from a Doctor of Folly.

At least Zobha has the decency to cover his face in a mask.

The other joker still believes he is doing fine even when inflation is
200 000%.

It was good to hear recently from a genuine war veteran, Wilfred
Mhanda, who is able to comment with some authority on the depredations of
the imposters who terrorise our land.

He has been quiet for a while.

But he came out with guns blazing last weekend in the Johannesburg
Sunday Independent.

He said that "an orgy of violence" had been unleashed by state
security forces, "complemented by war veterans, youth militia and Zanu PF
enthusiasts".

"The Mugabe regime descended on the defenceless people of Zimbabwe as
retribution for voting for change," he told the newspaper. "Command
structures for the campaign of violence are now fully operational.

Mugabe’s illegitimate and repressive rule has degenerated into a
fascist dictatorship reminiscent of Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge reign of terror in
Cambodia…It is a crime against humanity and an abomination for former
liberation fighters to indulge in retributive atrocities and human rights
abuses against the people they fought to liberate."

And we read on Monday that a farmer who tried to defend himself from
brutal assault by a "war veteran" by using pepper spray now faces charges of
assault.

In other words people are not able to defend themselves from attack by
marauding thugs.

Mhanda was right: Zimbabwe is a fascist state where human rights are
not protected.

It is a shocking state of affairs and little wonder that the
international community are responding with a set of appropriate measures.

Gono should tell us why he thinks the victims of state violence should
support him in his campaign to have sanctions lifted.

Didymus Mutasa is always good for a laugh.

His latest joke is that Mugabe will win the run-off.

"Our candidate is definitely going to win the election," he declared
last weekend.

And how did he know this? Well, the MDC’s supporters will remain the
same in terms of numbers, he claims, while all those tens of thousands of
Zanu PF supporters who didn’t vote on March 29 will turn out for the
run-off.

"This time all of them are going to vote for their candidate," Mutasa
said, adding ominously: "We are talking to them."

He is of course delusional. Zanu PF used every inducement in the book
to get its supporters out on March 29.

And with all the resources of the state behind it, not to mention the
threats of retribution, it still couldn’t win.

Now that Mugabe has been shown to be beatable, it’s the MDC supporters
who will come out in strength. People have suddenly realised they can make a
difference.

And ask yourself: Would you vote for a party that beats the living
daylights out of you and your family, kills your livestock and burns down
your home?

Mutasa says the MDC is a "pathetic party led by liars".

Was it the MDC that faked a letter from Gordon Brown promising support
for regime change? Was it the MDC that invented the story about Rhodesians
coming back to take command of the security forces? We know who the liars
are. And they’re not in the MDC.

With regard to tactics, Mutasa says "we are going to follow a
different pattern altogether this time". The country is already feeling it!
And watch out for the "rigorous training exercises" the ZEC will be running
for polling officers.

Mutasa is not the only Zanu PF joker. Sikhanyiso Ndlovu who hasn’t won
an election since 2000 thinks that criticising Aippa or Posa represents
contempt of parliament.

This, he suggests, is because both laws had bipartisan support.

He was speaking at the Bulawayo Press Club.

This is one of several myths Zanu PF repeats. Nobody in their right
mind would support Aippa or Posa unless they were trying to prop up a failed
state.

But the Sunday News which carried his remarks didn’t tell us what
questions journalists asked from the floor — if any.

The Bulawayo Press Club needs to find its voice.

Just because its members are happy to accept the minister’s patronage
shouldn’t emasculate them entirely.

Ask him when he’s going to find a seat other than in the bar? And
which media houses have a "malicious approach" when asking questions of
government?

What childish nonsense! We suspect he is talking about those that
have, with the rest of the nation, rejected the pretensions of ministers who
have created a desert where there was once abundance.

How much information has Aippa released into the public domain and how
can journalists seriously support a measure that has been used to close down
newspapers?

Ndlovu told Quill Club members in Harare last year that he would
investigate cases where state newspapers treated individuals as guilty of an
offence even when they had not been convicted.

It is routine professional procedure everywhere to regard a person as
innocent until proved guilty.

But Ndlovu has been unable to report any progress.

Just this week the Herald was declaring certain farmers guilty on its
front page. Mere allegations had become facts.

And what does the minister think of the language used by Nathaniel
Manheru in the penultimate paragraph of his weekly piece last Saturday?

What does he think about editors who have no say in what appears in
their newspapers? He wasn’t asked, it seems.

We were interested to see Grace Mugabe on TV last week donating
provisions to families who lost their homes in recent political violence in
the Mayo resettlement area. Among the items handed out were 233 pairs of
shoes. We weren’t told if they were all hers.

The First Lady condemned political violence and pointed out that no
one could become president through violence and destruction.

For whose benefit was that declaration? The footage showed her handing
out goods to Zanu PF supporters.

She castigated some regional leaders for betraying the goals of
liberation movements and dancing to the tune of neo-liberals and the Western
agenda.

She also attacked "sell-outs" who did not stand by "the founding goals
of the struggle".

Who could she be talking about and where is she getting this
half-baked nonsense?

First ladies should avoid partisan politics.

In particular they should avoid attacks on neighbouring leaders whose
generosity we now depend upon because their policies work and ours don’t.

Anyway, what does she know about the "founding goals of the struggle"?
We want to know what happened to that Iron Mask farm taken from an elderly
couple ostensibly to house street kids.

Grace was reported as saying that even if Zanu PF loses the
elections — presumably meaning the run-off — she would not leave the country
because she was born here.

Does she know something we don’t? Or can she read the writing on the
wall?

She’s obviously not just a pretty face! But she needs to lose that
awful Zanu PF outfit that’s been knocking around in her wardrobe since 2005,
according to the designer label.

A reader has written in with a flash of inspiration: Why doesn’t Gono
copy the Post Office and issue "Standard" money.

That’s to say a currency with no denomination, just colour-coded. Then
he could announce, say every week, the values for the different colours. It
would save a bundle in printing costs!

Editor's Memo: Public Media Is For The Public

Zim Independent

Comment
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:07
ON Tuesday Zimbabwe Broadcasting Holdings’ website (www.newsnet.co.zw)
carried a small story that the Minister of Information and Publicity Dr
Sikhanyiso Ndlovu had toured ZBH Pockets Hill and at the end of the tour
gave an address to the ZBH board.

This address was also broadcast on Monday night on News @ Eight.

"It is the duty of the national broadcaster to highlight various
programmes that the government has implemented in pursuit of empowering the
majority of its people," Ndlovu said.

Ndlovu urged Zimbabweans to tune in to the Gweru-based Voice of
Zimbabwe radio station rather than simply depend on foreign radio stations
"which are being used by the opposition to tarnish the image of the
country".

Ndlovu also implored the ZBH board to portray President Mugabe in a
"positive light" to ensure that he wins the pending presidential election.
He also said he would soon pay the Zimpapers board a visit to drive his
point home.

This is deplorable behaviour coming just after World Press Freedom
Day, a day set aside by the United Nations to remind governments — including
ours — of their duty to respect and uphold the right to freedom of
expression enshrined under Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights.

It is wrong for public media to act as the mouthpiece of the ruling
elite.

For communities to engage in meaningful political discourse and hold
their governments accountable, they must have free, fair, pluralistic and
professional media. And the minister pretends not to know this.

The public media should not be active political players aligning
themselves to a political movement or be partisan by providing free
campaigning space for a particular political party or candidate.

Ndlovu said ZBH should remind citizens of where they are coming from
so that they understand more about the biting sanctions which were
supposedly called for by the opposition MDC.

This sort of thinking is worrying, especially with the amount of
reports on political violence in the last two weeks.

In the Rwanda genocide in 1994 where nearly a million people were
butchered on ethnic lines, radio stations were used to promote the killings
through hate speech.

Anyone who has watched the movie, Hotel Rwanda will remember the
hisses of radio presenters of a fictional radio station, Hutu Power, telling
Hutus that the time had come to "cut the tall trees" — a reference to Tutsis
who are taller than the Hutu.

An outstanding case of hate speech during the Rwanda genocide was
Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) — a radio station accused
of playing a key role in creating the atmosphere of charged ethnic hostility
that allowed the genocide to occur.

RTLM was not created overnight. It was a gradual process that started
off as a popular station with mild incidences of hate humour and then hate
propaganda against Tutsis.

It moved up a gear to inciting violence and finally went as far as
identifying targets for slaughter.

Two executives of RTLM, Ferdinand Nahimana and Jean-Bosco Barayagwiza,
were charged with genocide by the UN International Criminal Tribunal for
Rwanda in 2003.

This is the process our nation must guard against. Radios and
newspapers don’t kill people, but they plant the seeds and ideas of hatred
for people to act on.

The nation is at a fragile point in our history and in its delicate
moment it is easy to degenerate into another Kenya.

Suggestions from the minister that public media should support this
cause of one political party should be strongly repudiated.

The March 29 presidential results released by ZEC showed that
President Robert Mugabe managed only 43,2% of the vote against Morgan
Tsvangirai’s 47,9%.

Other candidates shared the rest. This result should say something to
Ndlovu. Not the whole nation wants Mugabe.

The public media should not abuse its mandate by trying to sway public
opinion by creating a fictitious wonderland where Mugabe alone is the dear
leader.

He has been rejected overwhelmingly in Bulawayo and Harare, and in
many rural constituencies.

Public media should not be used to launder Mugabe’s soiled image or
rehabilitate his delinquent party which is now effectively the opposition.

Public media must represent expectations of the nation and not a few
discredited monarchists.

Public media relies heavily on national coffers for its survival. The
use of public media to achieve one’s political ends is synonymous with
dictatorships.

It is abuse of taxpayers money and this is not acceptable in
democratic societies.

Sovereignty is to do with freedom from outside interference — the
right to self-govern.

The minister should know this freedom must extend to ZBH and Zimpapers
boards. They are not Zanu PF property.

As we celebrate our 12th birthday as a newspaper this week we continue
to strive to protect the freedom of expression and provide a platform for
all progressive forces to participate in national discourse.

Zanu PF should prepare itself to a new culture in which they are
definitely going to lose their leverage in controlling news content.

As the opposition they will be chasing after media space to air their
views. This has not dawned on Ndlovu who appears caught in a time warp in
which he believes his party will rule forever.

Zim Independent Letters

Terror Campaign Unacceptable
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:11
THE brutality against defenceless citizens by Zanu PF in the terror
campaign to stay in power is unacceptable.

If by voting, the people are applying for incarceration, then the
entire world must stop holding elections after all.

This cruelty must stop now. How in Africa are people expected to have
their voices heard? Even denialists like Thabo Mbeki ought to be sensitive
to Zimbabweans who have expressed their will on who should govern them.

People should remember Zimbabwe does not belong to Mugabe and Zanu PF
or the retrogressive so-called liberation movements in the region but to all
Zimbabweans who obviously want to see nothing but bread and butter on their
tables.

For Sadc statesmen to blame their ineptitude on the West when in
Zimbabwe, for example, the British relinquished power years ago, after which
Mugabe took over, without a clue of how to manage the economy, is very
irresponsible and grossly inhumane.

If Sadc continues to be supportive of Zanu PF while it continues
murdering innocent citizens with impunity, then there is no reason for its
existence.

Probably it is the UN which should move towards rescuing desperate
Zimbabweans who are suffering under Mugabe’s dictatorship.

The Zimbabwean situation can only be solved through a truth and
reconciliation initiative and of course punishing all the violators of human
rights.

Andrea Sibanda,

South Africa.

---------------
Liberalised Exchange Rate Not In Good Faith
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 18:02
THE Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono liberalised the foreign exchange
rate.

The reason was to remove distortions in pricing and availing foreign
exchange in the formal market, so he said.

At first glance it appears his policy shift is excellent, but a closer
look will show that the whole saga is not about good intent. The timing is
very suspicious.

Gono at one time shouted from the top of his voice that devaluation
was never going to be the answer.

Perhaps at that stage he wanted to prove to his principals that he was
not an economic saboteour.

Simba Makoni was a victim of the same policy. So, now who is fooling
who?

Reading between lines one would discover that Gono has advised his
principals that the presidential poll run-off has put Zanu PF at a
crossroads and the only way to oil the campaign machinery was to get foreign
exchange quickly from the market.

In order to attract a lot of foreign exchange as quickly as possible,
he has decided to match the parallel market.

The money will probably be ear-marked for the payment of foreign
rigging experts such as Israeli agents and international propaganda
publications such as New African magazine.

The money will most likely also be used for the purchase of campaign
materials and guns from China.

The other portion of the money will be used to purchase motor vehicle
fuel and jet fuel for campaign purposes.

The list is endless and for this reason one cannot fail to see this
conspiracy by Gono. Therefore the liberalisation of foreign exchange by Gono
is not in good faith.

Nizola Shiri,

Harare.

--------------
The Winds Of Change Are Coming
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 17:58
THERE comes a time in the course of events on this earth as God
ordained them that a period of transition should take place in the order of
things.

This entails what some would call “nature taking its course” in that
no matter how we as humans resist the dying of a loved one for instance, the
call of nature will be too great for our efforts of trying to save.

This is because for the whole earth and all that is in it to remain in
balance, the Creator has put in motion cycles in which organisms operate.

The only problem with this set up is that the creation is an unwilling
participant in this cycle and unwilling to acknowledge the fact that that
whilst there is a beginning, there is inevitably an end.

This is symptomatic of the Zanu PF system which not only refused to
acknowledge that humans beings cannot live forever by endorsing Robert
Mugabe for president at their congress, they refuse to acknowledge the fact
that the tide has changed and that they can no longer claim the tag of being
the ruling party.

Whilst they possess a lot of resources and resolve to live another
day, they can only go so far as the cycle of life can permit because they
also are not immortal or invincible despite their best efforts to state to
the contrary.

Their best hope as an organisation would be to enter into negotiations
with the “new” movement and somehow hope to survive by not disappearing
completely as did Kanu and Kenya, and Unip in Zambia.

The opposition’s win is not a sign of their political prowess, rather
it’s the affirmation of the workings of nature as exemplified in the
momentum for the independence of most African states in the colonial era
which inevitably became independent.

The opposition therefore need to be warned not to take the route of
its predecessors for when the winds of change do come they will not leave a
stone unturned.

N Munekani,
Gutu.

---------------
Where Are Our Leaders?
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 17:56
I WAS so excited when the MDC won the elections last month, but now
they are nowhere to be seen, here in Zimbabwe.

We are suffering more and more, but they are not here to tell us what
to do, and to stand up for us.

We are left guessing as to what is going to happen, and even if they
really care about us ordinary people at all.

I hear that Morgan Tsvangirai says it is not safe to come back. But we
are all here, us who voted him to be our leader!

I do not expect the leader I voted for to run away at the first sign
of danger. That is not the type of a person I voted for.

Please, MDC, bring us your leaders now and get us out of this mess. We
cannot wait any longer.

Theresa Shoko,

Harare.

------------
Teachers Being Attacked
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 17:53
AN MDC member in Mashonaland East province has confided to Murewa
Community Development Trust (MCDT) that teachers in Murewa, Mudzi, Mutoko,
Uzumba, Maramba, Pfungwe and other areas in the province are the latest
victims of ongoing violence perpetrated by the war veterans and the youth
militia.

He noted that the situation in Mashonaland East remains dire as
teachers in many schools are being accused of working for the opposition.

The MDC official also said that many youths who are targets have left
their villages, a strategy that he said is meant to dilute the effectiveness
of MDC campaign machinery during the presidential run-off.

An assessment carried out by MCD-T at 15 schools indicates that a
number of teachers have not turned up for duty for fear of what will befall
them if they return to their schools.

The teachers being targeted are those who also collaborate with the
Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ).

In the 2000 and 2002 general elections, teachers in Mashonaland East
suffered the most from State-sponsored violence, leading to the temporary
closure of a dozen schools.

We call upon the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Education to
condemn political violence in the schools system.

We also call upon the government to address the worsening humanitarian
crisis and assist the people who have lost homes in Mudzi, Macheke, Mutoko
and Uzumba.

An interview with a secondary school headmaster in Murewa whom we
cannot name for his safety revealed that some teachers have requested
ermegency transfers as they cannot return to their schools fearing for their
lives.

The government has got primary responsibility to protect the rights of
the rural voters whose rights are being violated.

The Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare must take
immediate steps and compile a list of people who need assistance with
blankets, food, housing and clothing.

We call upon the politicians sponsoring violence to desist from such
acts and urge them to respect the sanctity of human life.

The ongoing Operation Wavhotera Papi (Who Have You Voted For) being
instigated by the army is barbaric and inimical to democratic practice.

Advocacy Department,

MDC-T.

-----------
Open Letter To Mbeki
Letters
Thursday, 08 May 2008 17:41
I WRITE this letter to enlighten you of the correct situation
prevailing in the country you have tended to have so much interest in
although not in a completely impartial and progressive way.

You may be wondering who I am since I seldom write to people like you
who are seemingly detached to people on the ground.

I am the downtrodden, the hungry, the frustrated, the letdown unheeded
voter, the oppressed, the dispossessed by Murambatsvina, the orphaned and
dehumanised by self-imposed rulers, the unemployed, the tortured, the raped
and the peaceful Zimbabwean who has his patience stretched to the limit and
who feels that he cannot take it anymore to the point of death.

I refuse to call yours "quiet" diplomacy on Zimbabwe for yours is not
quiet but loud in its vulgar, uncaring and insensitive nature in respect of
the citizens of this country.

When a true friend of Zimbabwe’s downtrodden majority, President Levy
Mwanawasa called you to attend the Sadc regional bloc’s extraordinary
meeting on Zimbabwe you chose to pass through Zimbabwe for reasons best
known to yourself.

Of course you will state that you wanted to hear from the horse’s
mouth the situation prevailing at the time and that you were best suited to
do so as the appointed mediator.

But sir, an honest mediator and broker does not come out of such a
meeting speaking in complete harmony with one party to the conflict he is
purporting to solve.

Simple rules of diplomacy will tell you a simple answer such as "I
have no comment at this juncture since I am still to meet with other heads
of state" would have sufficed to the inquisitive reporters.

But you chose to be very loud in your unwavering support for the
ruinous and manipulative regime in Zimbabwe.

For you to concur with the assertion that there was no crisis in
Zimbabwe, smacked of one drowned in the opium of his mentor’s cellar.

Now after being quizzed in New York on what you meant, you responded
by quipping that there was no electoral crisis and as usual you were
"misquoted".

Even that statement you purport to have actually said is absurd as the
failure to announce election results weeks after they have been held
constitutes a crisis in my book.

Your insistence to the United Nations to allow Sadc and AU to deal
with Zimbabwe’s problems is instead a dishonest ploy to protect the regime
in Zimbabwe while the world permanently waits for a solution from you which
will never come.

Even if you say you are dealing with the problem and have produced a
violent-free election, what about the post-election period?

The machinations and antics being perpetrated by the regime are clear
for all to see but you choose to hear no evil nor see no evil. What a shame!

You seem to want to see more bloodshed and killings to genocidal
levels for you to agree that there is a real crisis at hand.

It is the likes of you who tacitly believe that in Africa there is no
crisis until there is an exchange of gunfire and mass killings.

But one does not need high levels of intellect to know that one life
lost is one life too many.

We know this and we have chosen to be a peaceful people but
unfortunately we have been let down first by the regime and by those like
you.

What is progressive Mr Mbeki, for your regional blocs is to have
proper peer review mechanisms not just in name only or those meant to
appease those who rightfully see it necessary to scrutinise us.

We need to turn our regional blocks into self- scrutinising and
correcting bodies.

An extension or development of such bodies would culminate in the
formation of a regional election body that runs member countries’ elections
as opposed to sitting governments’ appointed commissions doing so.

Such an electoral body would have members drawn from member countries
seconded by their parliaments.

Since most conflicts emanate from election disputes such a body would
ensure transparency and impartiality.

This, in my view is a proactive way of dealing with potential
conflicts.

Let me conclude by offering my solution to the Zimbabwean question you
refuse to admit is a crisis.

It is essential that the regime in Zimbabwe should not only recognise
MDC but accept the will of the people which clearly mandated the MDC and
Morgan Tsvangirai to form the next government.

Robert Zinyohwera,

Harare.

Cases of political violence mount