via Welcome to the Real World by Eddie Cross – posted 27 August 2013
Three weeks into the new world order created by a ruthless oligarchy in Zimbabwe, they are slowly coming to appreciate that they face some real problems. Firstly they face the challenge of legitimacy. No one believes they won the election – all major western Nations have said that the elections were a sham, restrictions on the old leadership will remain and they emphasize that it cannot be business as usual.
Then there are the economic realities, the Zanu PF manifesto – indigenisation, empowerment and jobs are directly in conflict with each other – if they follow through on their indigenisation programme, capital flight will continue, new investment will dry up and existing business will hold back on everything, including maintenance. Morgan Tsvangirai said they can rig the elections, but they cannot rig the economy and already the markets are punishing them. Cash has drained away from the banks leaving many in dire straights and the economy is again going underground.
The announcement that people need not pay their accounts to local authorities has shrunk inflows of revenue – in some cases by two thirds, overall by half. Councils are unable to pay salaries and to crown it all, the national coffers are empty and the government has, for the first time since 2009, missed a payroll.
Some two months ago, after three years of intense negotiation, the process of reengagement with the multilateral financial institutions started with the President signing the agreements that initiated a Staff Monitored Programme with the IMF. If successful this would have resulted in debt relief for some $13 billion in long overdue debt, a resumption of lending on a concessionary basis by the Funds and the resumption of ability to borrow on global markets.
But the programme lays down stringent and detailed prescriptions for economic management. It commits the State to greater transparency in all its dealings, strict monetary and fiscal discipline and limits on expenditure on major items such as the salaries of the Civil Service. Step out of line and the penalties will be immediate – especially since the major powers in the IMF and World Bank are the same countries that are maintaining political restrictions on Zanu PF leadership and are deeply disappointed in the failure of regional leaders to contain the excesses of the old regime; especially the failure of the whole GPA exercise to deliver a credible democratic transition in leadership.
So the Zanu PF leadership finds itself on very thin ice and if they make one wrong step, they will break through and freeze to death. They simply cannot make good on their promises to pay higher salaries to Government workers and the armed forces, they cannot improve allowances and pensions to war veterans. They have to resume debt collection with tough penalties and they have to persuade a skeptical business world that there is life after the elections and under Zanu PF leadership.
That is a tough call – on the front page of the Daily News today is a photo gallery of the panel of candidates for the Cabinet – every one of them shouting out loud, “here we are, the team that gave you 231 million per cent inflation in 2008, the team that destroyed the economy and wiped out the accumulated cash savings of a century of hard work and enterprise. The team that collapsed the education and health system – halved our life expectancy and brought us the highest infant and maternal mortality in the world. This is the team that tripled our death rate and drove a third of our population into exile.”
These are the characters that before the GNU took their human rights away from them, looted the Reserve Bank of at least $1,3 billion a year, Noczim of $150 million a year and stole $3,4 billion from NSSA over the preceding two decades. These are the very people who took probably the most advanced agricultural system in the third world and smashed it to pieces in a few years; in the process looting billions of dollars in private and corporate assets in total disregard to their own laws and the basic rights of the investors, most of whom lost everything they owned.
Can we really think that this motley crew, who has just pulled off one of the greatest electoral heists in history, will keep their hands out of the till, obey the rule of law and stick to signed agreements? Hardly and until they demonstrate otherwise they have to contend with a hostile global environment of their own making, a totally skeptical business community and a system of economic justice that will punish them instantly whenever they break the rules. It’s scary.
Already traders are holding back on credit lines to local retailers, wholesalers and distributors. Our imports run to $600 million a month and there is a gap between imports and export earnings of about $3 billion per annum. Much of this is funded by inflows and remittances but companies provide local business with informal lines of credit that keep our markets supplied with product. They do so because they trust their local buyers and those buyers have been able to pay on time and in full on a regular basis. Any talk of a resumption of the old fiscal and monetary regime and these lines of credit will vanish and Zimbabweans will be back in perpetual fuel and food queues; back to buying bread in Botswana, good for Francistown, bad for Zanu PF.
Welcome to the real world.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 25th August 2013
COMMENTS
Well Said. We are in for it.
What was the background to this: The announcement that people need not pay their accounts to local authorities has shrunk inflows of revenue…
@Richard: here’s part of it
Sadly a really good aticle Eddie. I cannot see anything but down hill from here with this “motley crew” at the wheel, and I know one investor who has closed down here and others who have been on the wait and see fence have now jumped off and can’t be found,but who can blame them. We are now re assesing our ability to continue in this mess and so are many others who have seen the proverbial light go off at the end of the tunell. When you think about it we have nothing but diamonds in this country and the motley crew own those for their own enrichment. We have no agriculture, we have no oil, we are a land locked country who has to pay dearly for transportation of essentials and are hammered by duties and taxes at our borders and corruption is the only way here now. We have 90% unemployment and yet we are importing Chinese leaches that are stealing the work our own people can do and taking the money out of our country.I guess this is the African way as SADC, AU, and the SA president stand there and tell us it is all ok! I just cannot understand how people can stoop to the depths of supporting this stolen election in the face of imminent destruction.
Lord help us.
Its only a cry for the defeated imperialist who wishes if
things might happen in their favor we don’t want to be imposed leaders whom we don’t want by the use of these evil deeds of the west being pressurized by people like you who were total rejected by the people of Zimbabwe its better to die with hunger for our beloved Zimbabwe than to be fooled by these imperialist which was resoundingly defeated on July 31
Chandengenda, there were no imperialists in Zimbabwe, and the only candidates in th recent elections were Zimbabweans because that is the law. The reason is, contrary to Zanu PF propaganda, no one in the world barring a few criminal arms dealers and diamond dealers gives a damn about Zimbabwe. Even in South Africa it is only the poor black South Africans who care that there are 2m economic refugees from Zimbabwe. You are on your own about starving in Zimbabwe, because all the economic refugees would rather survive than die. The sooner you oblige us and die starving in a bankrupt Zimbabwe twhose resources have been looted by Zanu PF’s motley crew the better.
these zanyzanu pf people have only very small minds whereby they can only think of themselves , diamonds and zanu pf , chete! they care not a jot about there fellow countrymen and the rest of the world , that is why the have no consept of the millions of economic migrants that are spread around the world because of their policys perhaps the diaspora should stop sending money back to zimbabwe to support relatives then we shall see what happens next?
Eddie! lets hope for the best. I hope they have learnt the lesson and hyper inflation is a thing of the past. If we work together as a nation we can do better.
you are a real idiot my friend, Eddie is talking economics. but fools like you are not expected to understand
the sooner the better
And this is how the cookie crumbles…another day in Africa. The group of corrupt thieving elites made up of politicians and their families continue to fatten themselves and really wouldnt care less what happens to ordinary Zimbabweans. Kunyangwe nyika ikayinda kumawere kana kuvata nemanhede so long as they can continue to line their pockets through the same thievery & corruption that has sustained them for eons, they just wouldnt care less! The premise of their every move is self-preservation and self-enrichment – at whatever the cost. When they scream that this is our Zimbabwe, don’t be fooled to think they mean it for all for us- it is thier Zimbabwe- a country & a people held at ransom.
Good article Eddie.
What options are available in this impending struggle? What can we do – to fight or not to fight? If to fight – how? We have had analysis after analysis – yes things are not looking good. But we now need action – what action? Boycotts?, strikes?, demonstrations?(with intolerant ZPF – dangerous option!!!), a new party? Tozvirevakupiko?
These are the reults of turning around and bite the feeding hand , ZANU rigged and all supporters celebrated , very soon people will understand the role which was being played by MDC T and the difference will be clearly seen ,Zimbabweans wake up and rise ,Morgan will be remembered for a number of reasons .
Chandengenda is Bob’s cousin mfana waAugastin (Mudzakutsaku waitinetsa muhondo). what can he say. The targeted sanctions imposed to only but a selected notorious zunu pf elite by the west (who would want a thief to visit their home?) are now being used to hide behind the finger to justify their looting and failure. These are targeted sanctions, you are only individual Zimbabwe citizens, you are not Zimbabwe.
thats agood comment eddie cross
What to do you ask !! What you should have done, is to have listened
to EDDIE, he has told you exactly what was in store, many many times.
He was right ?. Absolutely 100% right. Morgan is your An San Su Chee
The Polit Bureau is your Burmese Generals. You didn’t listen. Burma was
the first Common Wealth Country to be granted Independence back in
1948, that’s 65 yrs ago, they did the same as Mugabe. Lied, lied, lied.
They had bountiful Natural Resources, OIL and lots of it. These days
it all goes to the Chinese.
You have made so many wrong decisions in the past. You have now run
out options. Morgan will be put in Gaol soon. That leaves you with no
Leader. How will you overthrow your Generals ???? That’s the $64
Question. Their ill gotten gains are already stashed overseas.
Perhaps they will up sticks and leave. Good Luck. Old Kariba Hand.
well done mr cross, wish you were the president of mdc maybe we would be seeing change by now not that strategiless tsvangira, who can not implement a wait and see strategy everyone kana rovha kana mbavha i hopeD by now mdc shld be having a plan to fight back but nxaa nothing zero zero yet millions look up to you im double dissapointed by the stolen vote and lack of fighting spirit
I really want 2 know if there wil be lfe 4 zpf afta Mugabe, cz hw cn we hv only 1 leader 4 such a long tme this mks me turn 2 mdc 4 change
Excellent comment.
Thanks for telling them the truth Eddie, but do they care after being looters and thieves for 33 years? Can you imagine them coming up with innovative ideas after the repeated failure of 33 years? Virtually all them, including the chief architect of vote rigging, Matibili Mugabe, should have retired a long time ago. Appointing them will simply give them an opportunity to STEAL for the last time as there won’t be another.
Gentlemen…Do not give up on God! I was really dissapointed with the Lord when I heard of the stolen victory of Mugabe and zpf, but after some discussions with Him I have realised that this mugabe guy and his clowns actually had to do this, and they over cooked the chicken, and they know that the whole world knows what they did and basically how they did it and our job is to make sure we keep that allive and drive it home hard as much as we can every day. They need to know that they are not going to be let off the hook for one second and they must be made to squirm as corrupt cheats should. Gone are the days of black against white and colloniasim. This is now a time we should stand up as Zimbabwean men of God and fight for Justice, Peace, and Unity in this our beloved country and to get rid of this scourge of evil that have no place in this land. We need to fight this battle on our knees…GBZ God Bless Zimbabwe.
I agree with all Eddie says,but in my view Mugabe is not the problem.The problem is the ANC.The conversation should be ,why does the ANC approve these rigged elections.You cannot fix what you don’t recognise.
Without the ANC, Mugabe and his corrupt bunch of thugs would have been ten years long gone.
Great article and even better comments, apart from a few buffoons like chandengenda, (what is the weather like on your sad little planet?) Ndichakumamisa ewe, Zvakwana Zvakwana!I have just returned from Zim. I have one word for it – Disappointed! Is this what the boys in the bush fought for, taking on the aerial onslaught of the Rhodesian forces every day? I don’t think so. Are the people of Zim not massively embarrassed about what Zim has become? It is fast becoming one of those poor, dusty, potholed African states in central Africa, when what was inherited in 1980 was the best country in the world with functioning institutions and happy fat faces! The solution- one can only fight a tyrant at his own game. Enough nice legal democratic challenge, i am sorry to say. Unfortunately the only way to beat a thug and his gang is to fight like him, eye for eye, worse even. We need a strongman who will take the new ‘elite’ (ha!) on with force, but this strongman must have a vision and a conscience! We don’t need democracy, not for another 5 years, Zim was not ready for it in 1980 and is still not ready for it, we need a conscientious and benevolent, autocratic ruler who puts the bad guys in jail, recovers the stolen goods and directs immediate change! Who will do this job, show yourself? Option 2 is to go into the bush and take Zim back through some 7.62mm force! Pray my fellow countrymen; white, black, Asian, mixed race (note no Chinese – they are raping us), pray for a strong man to come fight the bad guys!
Mugabe is not the problem.It’s the ANC.If they did not approve the rigged elections Mugabe and his corrupt bunch of thugs would be ten years long gone.
ian you are very right,they are benefiting from this whole mercy
I hear you Mr. Wuranda, but who will do this?
I further add that sadly, very sadly for Zim, the only alternative, other than what mr Wuranda suggests, is for Zim to go the route that Zambia did. Essentially sit doing very little, with nothing happening, no development, abject poverty, scratching in the mud for 30 years. This will give enough time fore Mugabe, his ‘elite’ politicians and generals to die off or become broke (easy come easy go), and for the country as a whole to learn through some hard lessons learnt over time and by denial of the good, basic lives we all deserve. Then slowly slowly we crawl up from the mud, start to accept the things that were fought so hard for during the war (ironically by both sides!), I.e. rule of law, freedom of speech, good macro and micro economic policies, security of property and business ownership and land tenure rights, no corruption, people paying their due taxes, services etc. slowly slowly we will crawl back to where Zambia is today! Maybe then we will be able to export food again to Zambia, instead of begging for it! By then we will stop the racial rhetoric and talk of western imperialists trying to take over our country! Sorry, but I predict this for Zim. Embarrassing, but it is the reality. Well done and thanks ZANU PDF, great job.
Hey Ed. thanks mate. As a black Zimbabwean, I am embarrassed to admit that maybe you are right. Humans only learn the hard way. I am also embarrassed with this talk of ’empowerment’ and indigenisation! We fought the war for this, we should have it by now! i had white ‘rhodie’ friends at school with me and they had been in Zim for 3 or more generations. To me they have as much indigenous rights as I have. I feel embarrassed to talk to them now, knowing these racial, marxist whatever policies will stagnate and slowly destroy out country. What ZANU PDF, indeed all zimbos need to do is stop blaming the west or the whites or the farmers and start taking responsibility for our own actions. It is us blacks (sadly through our friends in ZANU ) who have brought us to our knees. Without taking ownership and accepting our own faults, we will never fully recover. Zim should be a multi-racial country, where one is free to practice what one likes, say what one likes and do what one likes, within a law institution that serves the people! We should scrap this indigenisation law (by all means protect citizens and our own interests), afford all Zimbabwean citizens, white, black etc equal rights, protect their property rights and start the recovery process! We should get commercial farmers back on the land (I know for a fact that there can be enough land for all Zimbabweans, but it must be productive ), Rhodes are probably the best farmers I have ever met, they are not all racists, they just want to farm, so what if they wear shorts and fellies! Heish, I am embarrassed to call myself a Zimbabwean these days.