The Devil in the Detail

The Devil in the Detail

Source: The Devil in the Detail | The Zimbabwean

Eddie Cross is MDC MP for Bulawayo South

 

In all the years that I worked as an economist in what was then Rhodesia and subsequently in the Republic of Zimbabwe, I argued in any circles that would hear me, that exchange control was a national cancer, eating away at the economy and destroying value. I had few disciples.

The decision about three weeks ago to take 80 per cent of the foreign exchange earnings of the platinum mining industry into the Foreign Exchange Accounts of the Reserve Bank and replace them in the accounts of the mines with RTGS dollars, at long last triggered a response. The miners went to see the Governor (in his Holy Temple of the Reserve Bank building – logically one of the largest and most luxurious in the Capital), and asked him to reconsider his position as they could not accept the Directive. If the Governor does not do so, I suspect this matter will then go to the Courts for a decision, but the Mining Companies are right to deny the Governor the right to steal their output in broad daylight.

When many countries in Africa came to independence they had little or no knowledge of how the banking system worked. At Independence in Zimbabwe, some people walked into banks demanding money over the counter, only to be told that you had to have “money” in your account. Did the bank really mean that that funny writing in the books was real money? Today it is even more mystifying because it’s just a number on a screen. But the reaction of many leaders in Africa very soon after Independence was to realise what a wonderful thing a Reserve Bank was.

In the “Gono” era of our Reserve Bank the Bank not only committed the sin of printing money on a vast scale until finally the press could do no more and the whole edifice collapsed, like a Baobab in the bush dying of thirst. His second sin was to take a third of all foreign exchange earnings and convert them into local currency at an exchange rate set by the Bank – which of course bore no relation to the real value of the stuff in local currency. Effectively this was a tax on the country’s foreign earnings and the “money” that you received in return was only good for “burning” (an informal sector term) on the local market.

At the height of this wholesale theft of private resources by the Bank a connected individual could get a small allocation of hard currency (say US$5.00), change it on the streets and get a whole pile of local cash, walk back into the Reserve Bank and buy enough foreign currency to buy a house or a luxury car at the “Official” or even worse, the so-called “legal” rate.

In effect, what this was doing was transferring real value and wealth, from those who earned it and made the economy work in the process, to people in the State or even simply holding a connection, political or otherwise, who could access these stolen resources and lodged in the Reserve Bank. The screen used to cover this nefarious activity was a thing called “Exchange Control” and the Bank had a staff of thousands dealing with the allocation of these scarce resources to people who wanted to travel abroad or import goods.

When a political leader left Jail in the mid 80’s after spending three years on trumped up charges, he was met at the gates of the Prison by a senior State Official who took him to breakfast and offered him a bribe to stay quiet and resume work with the regime. The “bribe” was not cash, it was a “foreign exchange allocation” from the Reserve Bank, virtually a token to be exchanged at the bank for hard currency that could then be used to buy imports – all that ex-Convict had to do was to sell it on the market and become an instant millionaire, which is exactly what he did and promptly was appointed a Minister in the very government that had locked him up in the first place.

With dollarization in 2009, the regime has not been able to print money, until recently, but today, money is not just that paper stuff you use on the streets or in the shops but has a dozen other forms. We now have “electronic money”, Debentures, Treasury Bills and other instruments (Bond Notes) which hold value because the State (the Reserve Bank) says so. The problem for the Bank and the regime in power is the dammed market which insists on quietly fixing a real value to whatever we are using as a means of exchange.

So today, as I write, the real US dollar – printed in the US on cotton paper and sold to our banks with real money, is trading at a premium of 35 per cent. This means that if you have “RTGS dollars” in your account – listed as US Dollars, in fact you do not have real currency in your account but a phantom currency which is only worth 65 cents in real money. It is even worse if you have your money in Treasury Bills, then you must discount the TB into RTGS dollars at a 20 to 30 per cent discount and take a form of currency that is only worth 65 cents – total discount is 52 per cent. If you have millions of RTGS dollars in your accounts and you want to get them out of the country, then one way to do that is to buy a share on the local bourse and take the share out to Johannesburg or London where you can sell it for real money – but take a 60 per cent discount in the process.

That is the problem faced by the Mining Companies.

The Mugabe regime that is once again in total control of the State after the rigged and manipulated election in 2013, has succeeded in destroying all the gains made during the short period (4 years) when they were forced to share power with the MDC. They have completely undermined the fiscal stability created by the MDC, and in the process, have caused a massive cash shortage on the market, they have taken so much real money out of the market using various means such as Treasury Bills, that nearly all Banks are technically insolvent again. They have reintroduced exchange controls and in the process forced everyone back into the shadowy grey markets of the informal sector and they now want to destroy our exporters by taking their earnings in hard currencies and replacing them with local currency, which although denominated in USD bears no relation to the USD and is rapidly losing its value in the markets.

It is now clear from official statistics that we are heading for a complete collapse similar in many ways to 2008. Our budget deficit which started in 2013 when it came in at US$500 million has risen to US$1,6 billion in 2016 and it now looks as if it will exceed US$2 billion in the current year. By December I expect our RTGS “dollars” to be worth half of their real counterparts, inflation of a similar magnitude will follow and in 2018 Zimbabweans will again be dealing with hyper-inflation and the collapse of their incomes and assets.

Worse of all, many leaders in Africa treat the Reserve Bank as “their” bank and draw money at will. Last week we learned that the First Lady bought two more homes in South Africa for nearly US$10 million – paid by the Reserve Bank whom we know also made the resources available for baubles like the famous diamond ring. When the President flies out of the country he takes millions of dollars (real dollars) out with him, all from the Bank, he does not account for this money and the gravy train accompanies him.

If the Courts do not put a halt to the lunacy in the Reserve Bank and allow exporters and others who bring in foreign exchange, to retain their earnings and sell their hard currency at real market value on the local market then the collapse will accelerate because no company, unless it is state controlled Marange Diamonds, can survive if the State takes 80 per cent of their earnings and devalues them by half or more in the process.

 

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COMMENTS

WORDPRESS: 2
  • comment-avatar
    MPC 2 weeks

    One does not need to be an economist to work out whats going on. Every blighter on the street knows, except those in govt that are dreaming and scratching their heads plying new tricks.
    I could inform of potential solutions as a minion with a few A levels but it would fall on deaf ears and blind eyes.
    There is little hope in a circus when you have more clowns than performers or artists! The show will eventually close as bankrupt and that is where we are heading right this minute!

  • comment-avatar
    Him 2 weeks

    I bow to you being in the country I am not. Yet put it to you that the regime is not an idiot or naive as can be construed from your post. In fact it is extremely shrewd. No regime lasts for ever and if the pickings can be good while the gravy boat is full, like as you refer to buying mansions in SA (you also seem to be certain that the treasury financed these). Come the day of the rope and the lampposts (Mussolini Style) If you can escape, you have nice nest egg that somebody else has paid for. It’s like roulette with yourself and some humans revel in this form of risk – they play with loaded ball, dice, or one chamber empty. After all seem better than working for a pittance. What is the bigger pity over the modus operandi, the general populous usually cannot and never will see this, so they blindly put up with the situation nay support it. To an extent because; if life is damn awful, to just be alive tomorrow is a reward, a bonus to be celebrated, because their bench mark is so low, lower then this is nothing and starvation. Meanwhile of course, those who benefit from the ever open purse, hold the keys – thus keeping the unclean to there stations in life. It is self perpetuating until an unseen factor comes to play – death – bankruptcy – jealousy – 3rd party intervention – then “End of the world as we know it captain”. The Ceausescu’s are an example of this, even on the fateful day the security people told them “To leave now”, as it was they left in wooden boxes, the window in time perhaps 5 minutes.