Source: Zanu PF infighting risks unrest, instability – DailyNews Live
Gift Phiri 10 October 2017
Zanu-PF appears split between supporters of Grace Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa
HARARE – The infighting at the top of President Robert Mugabe’s ruling
Zanu PF party is spreading to elements of the bureaucracy and security
establishment, and the harsh words being exchanged and the absence of
democratic politics risk provoking a backlash that could bring great
political instability and incidents of sporadic unrest, a respected
think-tank has said.
With the two vice presidents at each other’s throats while First Lady
Grace Mugabe picked up where she left off in disposing of former Vice
President Joice Mujuru and now targeting Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa
in a succession free-for-all, the clashes have brought what NKC African
Economics describes as a new, dangerous threat.
While the weak and sycophantic Vice President Phelekezela Mphoko joined
the attack on his colleague in the hope of gaining some small favour from
Mugabe and his “Lady Macbeth wife”, who has now declared war on Mnangagwa,
the open infighting was spreading down the ranks of the military and the
security establishment, polluting the political environment and posing a
significant stability threat, NKC analyst Gary van Staden warned
yesterday.
Mugabe has done little to stop the shredding of his party’s top
leadership. In fact, he added some fuel to the fire himself in what has
become a standard Mugabe tactic when succession talks erupt – confuse,
divide and keep on ruling.
“It is going to become increasingly difficult to sort the political
signals from the succession noise in the coming months as Zanu PF
continues on its fractious path: pitting the top leadership of the party
against each other in a succession race that will ultimately be decided by
one man – Mugabe,” Van Staden said.
“His choices will be dictated by other issues, including the reaction of
the military and security establishment to his plan, which ties his hands
perhaps more than the succession rivals appreciate.
“Meanwhile, well-placed sources in Harare are concerned that the
infighting at the top of the party could spread to elements of the
bureaucracy and security establishment and create tensions that could
easily lead to incidents of sporadic unrest and increased political
instability.
“The economic woes besetting the country do not help the situation, and we
have already seen incidents where the army and the police clash. Under
similar circumstances one would expect the opposition to make some headway
amid the growing chaos and disunity in Zanu PF, but the opposition has
troubles of its own which suggests it will not be able to take advantage
of the situation.”
Academic and analyst Pedzisai Ruhanya said “the signs of authoritarian
erosion and possible authoritarian breakdown of a competitive
authoritarian regime are now as clear as a goat’s behind.”
He said the party was convulsed by “elite discohesion” with Grace taking
them down one-by-one including the repressive State apparatus or coercive
apparatus.
“We are in the midst of the foggy or grey zone of the political transition
in Zimbabwe,” Ruhanya said.
Van Staden said there is no doubt that Grace has now declared a fresh war
against a sitting vice president, having successfully ejected Mujuru from
the party in 2015 with a cocktail of deceit, manipulation and outright
fabrication that she fed her doting husband who is no stranger to
manipulation himself.
Piers Pigou, southern African director of the International Crisis Group,
said: “I suspect we will see one of two things; either a serious push back
against the VP and his support base … or something more `balanced’ in
the latest instalment of Mugabe’s traditional modus operandi.”
Pigou said Mugabe will have to calculate if it is in his interests to
decapitate Mnangagwa’s Team Lacoste.
Van Staden said Mnangagwa remains the most likely successor, “but Ms
Mugabe will use her tried and tested political poison on him too.”
“While he will prove far more resilient, Ms Mugabe has clearly decided he
must go as he stands in the way of the succession narrative she favours.
Mnangagwa, however, has powerful military and security sector allies and
the support of the major military veterans’ association which has already
warned that it will not tolerate another bout of her dirty tricks.
“Also in the mix is the faction known as Generation 40 (G40) that
implicitly supports Ms Mugabe’s efforts because it suits their agenda of
imposing a new, younger generation of leaders on Zanu PF. The G40 is not a
`Grace for president’ fan club, and she would be seriously mistaken to
believe it is.”
The G40 under the leadership of Jonathan Moyo – among others – has its own
agenda and ambitions and handing the presidency to Grace is not on it.
“While claims and counter claims of attempted poisonings and other shady
back-alley politics make interesting, if distracting, media highlights,
the real issue is the succession struggle,” Van Staden said.
“All this assuming Mugabe will step down anytime soon.”
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