Bruised Mujuru warns Mugabe

Source: Bruised Mujuru warns Mugabe – DailyNews Live January 24, 2017

Fungi Kwaramba

HARARE – Former vice president and now Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) leader,
Joice Mujuru – who is still smarting from her party’s crushing defeat at
the hands of Zanu PF in Saturday’s Bikita West by-election – says she
still has enough fuel in the tank to topple President Robert Mugabe from
power in 2018.

In a statement yesterday, Mujuru also said the results of the Bikita West
by-election, in which her candidate Kudakwashe Gopo polled poorly, had
still demonstrated that ZPF was minimally set to eat into Zanu PF’s
support base in the eagerly-anticipated 2018 national polls.

The statement came after analysts had said, in the wake of ZPF’s heavy
shellacking in the Bikita mini-poll, that Mujuru was now left with “a huge
mountain to climb” regarding her capacity to defeat Mugabe and his warring
ruling party in next year’s elections.

The analysts who spoke to the Daily News at the weekend had also pointed
out that ZPF’s debilitating defeat meant that Mujuru was now in “a weak
bargaining position” in her delicate and ongoing coalition talks with the
popular and tenacious opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai.

But Mugabe’s former long-standing deputy was defiant yesterday, saying
there were in fact “many positive outcomes” from the Bikita by-election
which was marred by violence and electoral malpractices.

“Yes Bikita could be a setback to some, but to us it is a positive event
for which we are thanking our supporters who came out to support our
candidate.

“We have polling stations where we won. We will use these to understand
what we did well, and where we lost we will invest in understanding why.

“Overall, Bikita strengthens rather than weakens us,” ZPF spokesperson
Jealousy Mawarire said in yesterday’s statement.

“There are key issues that come out of the by-election that we are going
to use in the (2018) elections strategy that we are putting in place as a
party.

“If you want to extrapolate the results and apply them to the whole
country, to say that will be the number of votes we are going to get in
the 210 constituencies in 2018, then you will realise that the 2 453 votes
by Gopo (in Bikita) will translate to 515 130 votes nationally, which is
24 percent of the total votes polled by Mugabe in 2013.

“If you subtract the 24 percent from 61 percent that Mugabe got (in 2013),
you will realise that he would fall short of the 50 percent plus one vote
needed for one to be declared president.

“Assuming all the people who voted for Gopo are former Zanu PF, which is
possible, it makes a compelling argument that a coalition of opposition
forces can dislodge Zanu PF since Mujuru eats into the Zanu PF vote to the
benefit of opposition forces,” Mawarire added.

In the run-up to Saturday’s by-election, violence flared up in the
constituency when suspected Zanu PF thugs, who were brandishing guns, left
for dead National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) candidate Madock Chivasa
and his election agent Thomas Muzuva – as they made their way from a local
shop where they had gone to buy food.

Apart from the violence, observer groups also noted “multiple” other
electoral malpractices, including a high number of assisted voters.

Terrified villagers also said they had ended up voting for Zanu PF,
fearing that they would be dealt with ruthlessly if they disobeyed “chefs”
(Zanu PF bigwigs) – who had allegedly dictated that they vote for the
ruling party.

ZPF was participating in its first elections in Bikita, since it was
launched last year, with political analysts saying ahead of the poll that
it would provide a litmus test for Mujuru.

Former Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition director, McDonald Lewanika, told the
Daily News at the weekend that it was “illogical” to judge Mujuru’s
strength based on the Bikita by-election result only.

“Yes, Mujuru was expected to haunt Zanu PF, but where? Is it in Bikita
West? I think to rule out Mujuru based on Bikita West is faulty logic.

“The expectation has always been that Mujuru enjoyed popularity in
Mashonaland East and Mashonaland Central, and that she also appeals to the
middle class and business.

“So, her power cannot be tested on this by-election alone. If you want to
prove it, you test it in an area she is supposed to be strong, in order to
disprove or ascertain the myths. Anything else is an inaccurate
conclusion,” he said.

But another political analyst, Gladys Hlatywayo, said even taking into
account the reported cases of violence and intimidation in the
by-election, the result was a bad one for Mujuru and ZPF.

“The claim made by Mujuru that she is the real headache for Zanu PF is
probably untrue, given the outcome of the Bikita by-election.

“What is clear is that there is now a strong need for an opposition
coalition if Zanu PF is to be defeated in the 2018 election. In addition,
such a coalition should perhaps be led by a party with the largest
following, and such a party is MDC.

“I would like to think that by refusing to support ZPF, MDC wanted to
gauge the support base of ZPF and be guided accordingly as they negotiate
the terms of the coalition.

“This election outcome will have an impact on the ongoing negotiations and
will probably reduce the bargaining power of ZPF,” Hlatywayo said.

Zimbabwe Democracy Institute director, Pedzisai Ruhanya, weighed in saying
the result of the election, notwithstanding the allegations of electoral
fraud and voter intimidation, meant that Mujuru had lost her bargaining
power in her coalition talks with Tsvangirai.

“Look, Bikita West has always been violent since 2000, and there was an
even more violent by-election in 2001. Yet, Tsvangirai still won it and
went on to repeat the feat in 2008, and had significant votes in 2013.

“So, if we are going to use that as a yardstick, then it is fair to say if
there is to be any meaningful coalition by opposition parties, it has to
have the former prime minister as its face.

“It is all about statistics. This is no longer about assumptions, it’s
about facts. Numbers don’t lie and Tsvangirai has them more than anyone
else in the opposition,” Ruhanya told the Daily News.

Mujuru, who was ruthlessly purged from the warring Zanu PF in late 2014,
together with her close allies who included liberation stalwarts such as
Rugare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa – on untested claims of plotting to oust
and assassinate Mugabe – is working with Tsvangirai and other smaller
parties on a grand coalition which they say will be in place before the
end of this year.

Analysts have also consistently said that a united opposition, fighting
with one purpose, would bring to an end Mugabe’s long rule – especially at
this time when the country’s economy is dying and the increasingly frail
nonagenarian is battling to keep his warring Zanu PF united.

Ruhanya said Bikita West should be a sobering turn for opposition parties
who have been bickering among themselves while the nation is burning.