‘Tsvangirai, Mujuru must act the same’

Source: ‘Tsvangirai, Mujuru must act the same’ – DailyNews Live 23 January 2017

HARARE – Stephen Chan, professor of world politics and international
relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of
London, says it is vital that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and
former Vice President Joice Mujuru, who now leads the fledgling Zimbabwe
People First (ZPF),  project themselves together  if the mooted grand
coalition is to gain confidence of the general populace.

He speaks to Senior Assistant Editor Guthrie Munyuki about this and other
issues and below are the excerpts of the interview.

Q: Do you see Zanu PF finally resolving its rumbling succession issue this
year and what is likely to happen?

A: There are no indications the succession battles will be resolved in the
near future. It would not be surprising, however, if a successor should be
named by Robert Mugabe shortly after the 2018 elections.

Q: Who holds the aces and can there be one more final twist to this saga?

A: This saga has had many twists, but there have only really been two
major factions since the departure of Joice Mujuru. These are the factions
of Emmerson Mnangagwa, and those who oppose Emmerson Mnangagwa -but those
who oppose him cannot decide on a champion who will carry their colours
forward. The problem is that neither faction can decide on a set of
policies to take Zimbabwe forward. If it finally comes down to
personalities and not policies, the future cannot be bright.

Q: Increasingly, Mnangagwa’s backers are coming out in the open expressing
confidence that he will succeed Mugabe, what’s your reading into this?

A: As long as those who oppose Mnangagwa cannot identify and rally around
a candidate, he will be the one who attracts international attention. All
major players, from the Europeans to the Chinese, have dossiers on
Mnangagwa, and outline strategies on how to approach dealing with him.
This is impossible when it comes to the opposing faction. In international
terms, therefore, Mnangagwa is ahead by default.

Q: Some say the Coffee Mug storm is a sign that Mnangagwa still has a lot
to do to win over rivals in Zanu PF, is this a fair assessment?

A: This was stupid. I myself had a coffee mug with the same words on it.
It’s just a personal joke to drink out of such a mug, first thing in the
morning, when the world looks impossible. If people are quarrelling about
this, it makes policy outlooks even more remote. If the mug had the words,
`I will print money’ on it, then there would at least have been a debate
on fiscal policy.

Q: For long we have been told the military will eventually decide Mugabe’s
successor, is this possible when Mugabe clearly says they must not
interfere with their internal affairs?

A: The military cannot be factored out. I doubt they will intervene
directly or visibly, but they constitute a huge factor in Zimbabwean
history and politics.

Q: How do the Zanu PF factional and succession fights impact the party’s
chances in the 2018 national elections?

A: Zanu PF will probably win in 2018, if only because of disillusionment
with the entire political process, including the democratic process, and
because of disappointment over a squabbling opposition.

Q: In what way can the opposition benefit from Zanu PF widening fissures?

A: If the opposition was united, not only as a coalition of parties, but
with united and detailed policies, then it could make inroads on Zanu PF –
particularly if the economy has worsened by 2018. It seems to me, however,
that no opposition leader has anything that resembles a detailed, workable
plan or set of policies. It’s all generalities. There’s not a technocrat
among them.

Q: Morgan Tsvangirai says he has recovered from cancer, how does a
fit-again Tsvangirai change the dynamics of the 2018 elections?

A: Well, one doesn’t recover from cancer just like that. Recovery is a
long-term affair and the body must not be subjected to undue stress – so I
doubt we shall see a fully dynamic Morgan Tsvangirai. But even a fully fit
Tsvangirai will change nothing without a financial plan and, I think, a
clear account of what he failed to do as prime minister, and how he would
do better in the future; and how he would stop his ministers and MPs from
becoming corrupt clones of the worst of Zanu PF.

Q: Can someone else lead the mooted grand coalition other than him given
his popularity with ordinary Zimbabweans?

A: It is not a situation blessed with choice. It has to be Tsvangirai or
Mujuru. For the sake of a decent contest, the two must learn not only to
work together but project themselves together.

Q: Will it be fair to suggest that the state of the economy will also play
a part in deciding who wins the 2018 elections?

A: I think the economy will be a huge factor on people’s minds. It will be
worse in 2018 than it is now. The new bond notes will lead to inflation,
even if carefully controlled and this inflation is not the hyper-inflation
of the bad old days. But those bad old days were under a Zanu PF
government; so if anything even remotely like that starts happening again,
it will certainly dent the numbers voting for Zanu PF.

Basically, from our external analyses, the country is technically
bankrupt. The Chinese know this and are going slow on their own
investment. Coming to terms with the IMF has been helpful, but the IMF
will move very cautiously.

Basically, it seems to me like the condition Ghana faced in the early
1980s. I went to Ghana then, and people were surviving with huge ingenuity
– but nothing worked anymore in the sense we associate with a formal
State.