Climate Change in Zimbabwe – Information and Adaptation

Now they are, for the most part, faced with ruin. There is less rainfall in the region, and the soil is sandy and low in nutrients. Livestock farming is widespread and cultivated plants must adapt to the dry climate. Earlier, smallholder agriculture functioned acceptably with the use of fallow ground. This is no longer possible due to the prolonged dry spells, inadequate irrigation systems and overuse of the land. The poor quality of the soil is due to droughts, inferior seed and deforestation, among other things, and has resulted in a drastic fall in crop yield in the past few years. The worsening agricultural conditions, which according to renowned experts are an effect of climate change in southern Africa, have resulted in the undernourishment of many Zimbabweans. Numerous women and young girls prostitute themselves in order to ensure the survival of their families. This increases the risk of HIV transmission and accounts for the shortage of labourers during the harvest. Many smallholder families in the region live in a sustained state of hunger, and in most cases the children are malnourished. In the future, Zimbabwe will be perpetually dependent on international food aid. Above all, a reorganisation of the cultivation of staple foods is urgently necessary. Vegetable gardens should be created with local plants which are especially rich in vitamins and minerals, for example horseradish tree (Moringa oleifera), aloe vera and sage. Water supply is a problem which is growing ever more rapidly. Families have dwindling access to water wells and latrines. There are indeed several wells, but they are often missing spare parts and thus cannot be used. The consequence: people drink polluted water and cholera spreads again and again at a tearing pace. In December 2013 and early 2014, the numbers of cholera and typhoid cases rose in large cities and in several rural areas, prompting international organisations to warn of a new epidemic. Mismanagement of local public authorities and widespread corruption resulted, for example, in inadequately purified drinking water being supplied to several high-density areas in Harare. It emerged around the end of January in 2014 that the drinking water supply in Bulawayo, the second biggest city in the country, had become problematic. Here, the political, economic and ecological causes of problems mutually intensified each other. The mayor hoped for good rains to fill up the dammed reservoirs from which drinking water is obtained. The existing water wells are also to now be repaired with help of the local population, and new latrines are to be built. All measures should be planned so that the people can independently help themselves in future. Landscape Topographically, Zimbabwe is a high plateau, also referred to as ‘highveld‘. It rises gradually from the southwest to the northeast and constitutes the majority of the land area. The average altitude is between 1.200 and 1.600 meters above sea level. The highest mountain, Mount Inyangani, is almost 2.600 meters above sea level and is located in the Nyanga National Park in the east of the country. This area is part of the Chimanimani Mountains, which belong to the eastern highlands and extends along the border to Mozambique. It is characterised by a cool, foggy climate and its own mountain vegetation with a high biodiversity. The high plateau slopes down in the Zambezi valley in the north, and in the Limpopo river valley in the south of the country. The vegetation is largely distinguished by a dry savannah. About 20% of the country is classified as lowlands, also referred to as the ‘lowveld’, which lie between approximately 160 and 900 meters above sea level. The Mana Pools National Park in the north of the country is a UNESCO World Heritage site. Climate The current climate is temperate. While a subtropical climate dominates the highlands, there are tropical temperatures in the lowlands in the south and north. The summer heat reaches 30 degrees Celsius in the highlands, and in winter there can be instances of night frost. The average temperature in the capital city Harare is 20 degrees Celsius. The rainy season lasts from October until March. The average rainfall per year is 1.000mm; in that less than 400mm fall in the lowlands, over 600mm in the highlands and over 2.000mm in the mountains. Agro-ecological Zones The current conventional division of the whole country into five agro-ecological zones that mainly relate to rainfall and land utilisation is becoming questionable in light of the effects of climate change. Hitherto existing adaptation strategies regarding regular drought periods are of limited use. They no longer suffice, due to the extent of the changes and the vulnerability of large population groups and different sectors. Recurrent droughts enduringly impair agriculture. Most of all it is small family farms, which perform up to 70% of the field work, which are affected. Their workload is vastly increased, however the harvests are often inadequate for basic sustenance of the families. For a few years there has been torrential rainfall in some areas, resulting in flooding. Harvest losses along with nutritional and financial problems are the consequences for family farms. Large-scale farmers practice irrigation farming, for which they often create water supply dams. Of the well over 2.000 dam lakes nationwide, a little over half are under private ownership. Dam lakes which are built and used by the municipalities are regularly examined. In the process it becomes clear that the effects of climate change are affecting the dam lakes; by no means does this only apply to the Kariba dam. In many areas, the scarcity of water is a growing problem. In line with new dam construction projects there are relocations taking place that are being criticised for, amongst other things, the lack of economic and infrastructural prospects for the relocated people; this is the case in Masvingo, for example. The dam construction for the irrigation of large sugar cane plantations that produce for controversial ethanol manufacture has also intensified the troubles of the local agricultural producers. In 2009, Zimbabwe had a CO² emission of a little over 10.600 tons. Some development-political adjuncts and developmental programmes reacted diffidently and are striving for reductions in emissions. Climate change is affecting not only Zimbabwe but its neighbouring countries as well. In the framework of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) they make a concerted effort to find solutions. In addition, there are networks on the continent that exchange information about climate change. There is also regional cooperation in climatic and environmental research, for example on the areas along the border rivers Limpopo and Zambezi. Despite a law on environmental management having been passed in 2002, there is no comprehensive climate policy or national adaptation strategy in Zimbabwe. This law has also not been adjusted since the adoption of the new constitution. A number of state-run programs which deal with the effects of climate change exist in different sectors. In reaction to international reports, climate experts with local government ties criticised the dominance of scientists from other African countries, the United States and Europe in research groups analysing climate change towards the end of May 2014. They demand consideration of local adaptation strategies for the effects of climate change. On a local level, people are developing their own forms of adaptation to the changes in climate. The agro-ecological knowledge, gathered mainly by women over several generations, has acquired a new level of significance. Vegetation Zones The landscape is formed by savannahs. Depending on altitude and rainfall, the landscape is dry savannah, tree savannah or shrub land. While umbrella acacias and so-called monkey bread trees (baobab) are characteristic of the dry savannah, teak woods and mahogany grow in the more humid high altitude areas. Zimbabwe has a large diversity of flora – such as several hundred grass varieties. The country distinguishes itself through its high biodiversity. The government signed the international Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). National parks, reservations and botanical gardens only protect flora and fauna to a limited extent. Their total area constitutes little over 10% of the country’s total land area. Over 300 different species of mammal live in a total of ten national parks. Among them are elephants, lions, rhinos, buffalos, baboons, giraffes, antelopes, zebras, porcupines and hippopotami. Crocodiles and over 130 fish species are to be found in the waters. Apart from lizards and snakes, over 500 bird species add to the diverse animal kingdom. The rise in incidences of poaching – also in the national parks – is a problem that can, in the opinion of local stakeholders, be attributed to the effects of climate change, the economic crisis, and concretely to rampant poverty, and that should be handled by the local rangers. The reality is, however, that the illegal shooting is carried out by international crews with the assistance of individual army members. Ecological Problems Deforestation is one of the grave ecological problems. The bulk of the wood is used for the curing of tobacco – in 2011 alone, over 1.3 million cubic metres of wood were used to cure 127 tons of tobacco. Over 45.000 hectares of forest were required for this purpose, and the reforestation is a problem that can hardly be overcome. According to the Zimbabwean Forestry Commission, the yearly loss of woodland is 330.000 hectares. With 15.5% of export revenue, tobacco is an important source of foreign currency. More than 160 million kilograms of tobacco brought over 590 million US dollars in the last year (2013), however, the increased tobacco production has also had a negative impact on the cultivation of comestible goods. The production of staple food is steadily declining. Besides the USA and Europe, China is the principal customer for dried tobacco leaves.

The cause of the increased deforestation in previous years has also been the advancing poverty in the wake of the economic crises since 2002. Cuts in electricity supply, which is generally generated using hydropower, have led to increased use of wood for cooking, heating and lighting. In the densely populated urban areas, wood charcoal trade is flourishing; and its production in the urban hinterland ensures the survival of many impoverished people living in those areas. They operate under the risk of paying fines, because illegal felling of trees is punishable. In order to improve the social and ecological standards in the timber industry, the Zimbabwean government introduced a certification system in May 2012 which meets international standards. Only 200 official licences are now granted annually. The electricity supply in the country is covered by imports from South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Yet Zimbabwe often faces difficulty in paying the costs incurred. Fluctuations in current and electricity outages cause problems again and again in industrial plants, which turn to diesel generators as a substitute. Their ability to cushion the loss of production is, however, quite limited. Rural areas are barely electrified, and over 50% of the energy needed nationwide is generated with wood. Degradation of the cultivated areas and heavy soil erosion are among the consequences. In December 2013, a program (ZIM-Fund) with several donors and managed by the African Development Bank provided 17 million US dollars for the development and extension of electricity supply. The ecological problems are intensified by illegal gold panning in river valleys. This is a pre-colonial technique of utilisation of resources, but many people, faced with crop failure, poverty and a lack of alternative sources of income, feel they have no other option but to participate in gold panning in the dry season. Numerous deep holes in river beds and on riverbanks lead to erosion damage and desertification. Comparable ecological problems are caused by illegal diamond prospecting, which is also conducted by many as a way of securing their livelihood. Both have a negative impact on the rivers. In addition, higher rates of evaporation of the water lead to higher temperatures, which in turn negatively affects agriculture. According to the African Development Bank, public authorities must make a more concerted effort to handle the recession of surface water and ground water. The World Bank also calls for more transparency in administrative processes and better coordination of national, regional and local bodies. Only then can the environmental conservation and water laws, as well as their associated reforms, be implemented and the planned support programs financed. The cholera epidemic of 2008 showed just how necessary such programs are. While the development of the water supply and sanitary infrastructure was exemplary until the end of the 1990s, today only 67% of rural residents and 54% – 78% of urban residents have access to clean drinking water. Due to gender-specific division of labour in rural areas, women and girls are mainly the ones in charge handling the problem of water supply. Torrential rainfall, a result of climate change, caused flooding in February and March 2014. In individual regions of the country, approximately 65.000 small-scale farmers were relocated because of the rising water levels in water reservoirs and the limited capacity of dams. International aid organisations undertook the provision of necessities for those who had been relocated, with international donors facilitating the funding. At the beginning of April 2014, international experts feared that the Kariba Dam in the north of the country may burst under the pressure of increased volumes of water after extremely heavy rainfall. Roughly 3.5 million people along the lower stretch of the Zambezi in Zimbabwe and Mozambique were affected by the aftermath. Socio-geographical Conditions Currently, Harare is inhabited by a population of around 1.7 million people (2011). The second largest city is Bulawayo in the western part of the country, with just under 700 000 residents. Mutare, in the east, has around 180 000 residents. A legacy of the colonial period is the division into cities and nearby townships (now known as ‘high-density areas’). These were the residential areas of black labourers and their families. After political independence was won, these townships developed into urban settlements with several hundred thousand inhabitants. For instance in Chitungwiza, close to Harare, there are officially at least 350 000 residents. The area is faced by a serious housing shortage, especially since the destruction of living quarters by state security forces (known as Operation Murambatsvina) exacerbated the problem in 2005. Officially, this was supposed to result in the clearance of slums, but as a matter of fact, it simply resulted in over 750 000 people around the country becoming homeless. Tens of thousands of farm workers were stranded in Harare alone; they had lost their jobs and accommodation during the redistribution of farmland in 2000. Poverty and unemployment brought about the use of municipal areas for the cultivation of maize and vegetables. In 2009 approximately several hundred hectares of land within the urban area of Harare alone were cultivated. The current rate of urbanisation officially lies at 3.4%. The transportation connections of the rural settlements is, compared to other regions in Africa, relatively good. The dirt roads are predominantly solidly built, and the national roads between the large cities are tarmacked. Most of the roads within the cities are (still) tarmacked as well. Nationwide, the road network spans over 95.000 kilometres, of which around 18.000 kilometres are tarred. The railway system, covering just under 3.000 kilometres, links mainly large cities such as Bulawayo, Harare and Mutare relatively consistently. The condition of the rails and the rolling stock is, however, rather poor and refurbishment is urgently necessary. The rails, built during the colonial era, only see limited usage today; passenger transportation and transportation of cargo has shifted to the roads. Significant international and regional airports are to be found in Harare and Bulawayo respectively. In addition, there are over a dozen small airports with tarmacked runways and over 180 without tarred landing strips. In the road system there are qualitative differences between the earlier communal areas and the farming areas of large-scale farmers. Within cities, the differences between the neighbourhoods of the urban middle- and upper-class, and the densely populated residential areas of the majority of the population can be traced back to town planning under colonial rule. During the last decade, the government hardly invested in the maintenance of the road and railway systems, as the African Development Bank discovered in 2011. The rural roads used for long-distance transport and for the transportation of heavy loads in particular require extensive refurbishment. Time and time again, serious accidents with numerous casualties have occurred on these roads. In the last few years, there have been punctual development projects for the development of infrastructure such as those of the World Bank and different Scandinavian donor organisations, among others. Impact of Climate Change There has been lively speculation among experts about the impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. In the process, the poor harvests of recent years have been linked to the rise in temperature and to aridity of the climate. The rise in temperature in the last century of almost 0.5 degrees Celsius lies below the global average of 0.74 degrees Celsius, but has already caused devastating losses. What is problematic about this cause analysis is not only the fact that the increase in temperature in Zimbabwe has led to problems for agriculture, but that worldwide, in contrast, it has not prevented agricultural economics from substantially increasing agricultural production. The deficits in agricultural policy in the African country are virtually ignored. The bleak state of the agricultural sector is only evoked by a failed land reform and ownership policy, which hinders the development of a commercial agriculture and promotes perseverance on a subsistence level. In the course of the land reform, land of established white farmers was revoked and distributed to new owners with good political connections, whose interests, however, seem much less to be in a productive utilisation of the land. The land is currently unprofessionally and inefficiently used. Furthermore, the allocation of the land, which took place on an extremely dubious legal basis and runs the danger of continuously being subject to reform, in small sections hinders the expansion of commercial agriculture which has a high productivity potential with the usage of modern agrarian technology on large areas of land. Long-term investments require stable funding conditions; ownership rights to secure credit and loans are, unalterably, a part of that. This shortcoming cannot be remedied through state agricultural aid, which in any case contributes to driving farmers to be dependent on public authorities and abets corruption. Lastly, the supplier industry is in poor condition for modern agriculture in Zimbabwe. According to the Economic Freedom of the World Report of 2010 Zimbabwe is at the bottom of the list in the world ranking, with 3.57 index points; whereby the country is amongst the ten worst performing countries for each individual criterion in the assessment. Under the criterion for legal system and property rights, Zimbabwe takes up position 123 with 3.57 index points. Germany, with 8.17 index points, is number 14 in the ranking under this criterion. The agricultural problems in Zimbabwe cannot be overcome through a bolstering of agricultural authorities. In light of the inglorious role which state-run institutions there play in relation to economic development, this approach could perhaps achieve the opposite. What helps most of all against climate change is a change in politics. At long last, parameters which allow an acclimatisation to environmental changes, as in other nations, must be established. Just at the beginning of July the government recommended ‘financial crop insurance’ as a ‘suitable measure’ against climate change. Some local politicians of the ruling party see climate change as an “instrument of the colonialists to once again unlawfully take possession of the land”. A clarification for the general public practically never takes place. Although information and education to strengthen and promote environmental awareness have a high priority in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art.6), their value has so far been underestimated in Zimbabwe. The main focus of the debate on adaptation and prevention measures is still principally on the technical side. At the same time, it is precisely the educational sector, with its long tradition of and experience with the conveyance of social rules, norms and behavioural patterns, which offers important solution approaches to advance necessary social change. The way to a post-fossil society requires new education concepts, which impart more skills in the creation of social change and innovative everyday technology. Potential Solutions Faced with the no longer preventable climatic effects, larger efforts to form a culture of security and resilience in Zimbabwe must be made. In order for this to succeed, educational approaches that support a heightened risk awareness and risk perception, as well as the acquisition of suitable skills for readiness in case of catastrophes and disaster management must be established. Here, both governmental and civic players are equally in demand. The integration of radio, television and print media, mobile telephony and the use of the web 2.0 also offer many possibilities. Measures for acclimatisation should be more tightly linked to catastrophe precautions. Preparing the Zimbabwean population for the consequences of climate change necessitates two approaches: • Adaptation and Prevention Measures: the rural population should receive intensive instruction and training in the ‘new forms of agriculture’. These ‘new’ forms need to be accepted by the general public and the government, do without large and expensive machinery, require few resources (e.g. fertiliser), be practised successfully in other AU countries, and also be accepted by the church. The agricultural traditions in Zimbabwe must be taken into account. • Information and Clarification: As previously mentioned, much of the population is not aware of the causes and effects of climate change. The need for adaptation and mitigation measures has also not been explained by the government. Even several Members of Parliament are unfamiliar with the correlations. Clarification and information should be oriented towards state law in order to be successful, and must conform to the level of education of the rural population. New ground must be broken in the area of communication (e.g. graphic novels/comics). The use of traditional forms of communication such as story-telling must also be taken into consideration. Prevention and clarification will increasingly be of importance. The sensitisation of the population as well as the political decision-makers and business representatives, the collaboration with think tanks, the promotion of renewable energy and lastly the inclusion of Zimbabwe once again in the international climate and energy policy dialogue should be at the forefront.

Alfred Obed Rankomise is an independent South African writer and analyst. The opinions and views expressed in this article are the responsibility of the author. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung does not necessarily subscribe to the opinions and views.