Why Zanu-PF is taking by-elections seriously

via Why Zanu-PF is taking by-elections seriously | The Herald June 11, 2015

Yesterday, a number of by-elections were held in various constituencies across the country. The vacancies arose when Parliament accepted that MDC-T had expelled a group of MPs who had defected and formed a new political party, the MDC Renewal Team.

MDC-T decided not to participate in the by-elections, citing an unfair electoral system and the Government’s refusal to carry out satisfactory electoral reforms.

Zanu-PF is participating, alongside a host of other smaller opposition parties.

In the circumstances, it’s almost certain that Zanu-PF will win most, if not all, of the by-elections, given that their major rival is boycotting.

Led by Vice President Mnangagwa, Zanu-PF has run a spirited campaign across the constituencies.

But why is Zanu-PF taking these by-elections so seriously when their major rival is not even contesting and the competition is generally weak?

This question was posed to me by a journalist recently.

I thought it was an interesting question worthy of deeper reflection and analysis, certainly beyond a sound-bite that the media is often fond of.

In my opinion, this question has to be analysed from a strategic point of view: what is the strategic value of these by-elections to Zanu-PF?

This may help us to appreciate Zanu-PF’s serious attitude towards the by-elections whose outcome might otherwise appear almost obvious to most observers.

Winning culture, benefits of winning

The first strategic reason is that Zanu-PF knows a team needs a winning mentality and a culture of winning and that only comes from winning electoral contests.

Ancient Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu, famously wrote that opportunities multiply as they are seized.

In other words, success brings more success. Zanu-PF knows this too well. The boycott by their main rival presented an opportunity.

Here was an opportunity to win and they seized it, believing it would bring more success.

As with any political actors, Zanu-PF only cares about winning but it matters little how that win is achieved. It can be by any means, fair or foul. And it can be with or without credible competition. If there is no competition, they will create it. That is why the narrative has always been about Tsvangirai and the MDC, even if they are not contesting.

That is also why the latest narrative was that independents are being sponsored by former Vice President Joice Mujuru.

These actors may not be contesting, but in the Zanu-PF narrative, they are and should be beaten.

Winning gives them a good feeling, more confidence and helps cement the winning mentality.

Zanu-PF is like a football manager who fields his strongest team in all competitions — big or small — because he knows the importance of cultivating a winning mentality in the team. Every game matters. Every game must be won.

This culture of “winning” even by unfair means has strategic benefits for Zanu-PF.

People, especially youth, are attracted to winners. You can see it in other areas of competition, such as sport, where teams quickly develop a large following as they become winners and others suffer as they lose their winning streak.

Political parties too benefit from their reputation as winners, even if it’s considered unfair.

Over the last year, I have spent a lot of hours with young people who support President Mugabe and Zanu-PF, interviewing them to understand what really draws them to a party which many hold accountable for the national ruin.

My desire to learn more about Zanu-PF comes from my strong belief in another of Sun Tzu’s principles: “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy”.

The moral of this is that you must know your opponent, a point I often shared with colleagues in the opposition, although sadly, as I discovered, the great Sun Tzu was neither well-known nor well-received in those circles.

Anyway, in my interviews with young Zanu-PF supporters, I discovered that one of the most common reasons they gave was that Mugabe and Zanu-PF were “winners”.

The young people were resigned to the notion that Zanu-PF could not be beaten. We have to work with what is there, they said.

When I suggested that Zanu-PF uses unfair means to win, some said life was generally unfair and instead of always complaining, others should find ways to prevent the unfairness.

You cannot moan every time, but do nothing about it, they said.

It’s been a useful tour, learning from these younger generations.

I have learned that we now live in a society that is very different from 15-20 years ago when I was at university.

Cheating is no longer frowned upon like before. Those who achieve success by whatever means are celebrated. The end justifies the means.

It’s a culture that celebrates kuvharana (cheating). Friends cheat friends and relatives cheat relatives — everything is fair game.

For some young people, the fact that Zanu-PF “cheats” to win is not something they see as a problem.

Zanu-PF knows winning matters; that it demonstrates its power and that this in turn turns fence-sitters in their favour because people tend to go along with winners.

Morale Booster

The second strategic reason is that winning boosts morale and is important for unity and togetherness in team-building.

When a team is doing well, there is less friction between its members.

If MDC-T had won the July 31 elections it is unlikely there would have been the split that happened last year.

Winning gives a façade of unity and harmony in a team. Zanu-PF knows victory in these by-elections will boost team spirit at a time it is facing serious internal challenges.

Zanu-PF knows there are people who may be doubting its capacity given the large-scale expulsions and suspensions that have taken place in recent months.

Winning these by-elections, even if there is little competition, provides sufficient material to build the image that the party remains strong.

Preparation for 2018

An additional strategic reason is that these by-elections help Zanu-PF to start preparations for the 2018 general elections.

Already the party has embarked on a massive voter registration campaign as part of these by-elections. Figures being given show that there were almost half a million voters registered for the by-elections. Since the MDC parties are not involved, it’s a safe bet that most of those newly-registered voters are Zanu-PF supporters. In short, Zanu-PF takes these by-elections seriously because it is playing the long game, with its eyes focussed firmly on 2018.

By the time the new national voters’ roll is compiled and produced, Zanu-PF will be pleased with it.

And in any event, as it participates in the by-elections, not only is it testing the electoral system, it is also adding to its knowledge bank in respect of the conduct of elections.

Tactics, the long game

Politically, Zanu-PF will use the by-elections victories as evidence to prove that it still commands the support and trust of the majority.

It was very pleased with the results of the Afrobarometer Survey which indicated that President Mugabe still enjoyed the support of the electorate and that the opposition was not well trusted. Therefore, victory in the by-elections serves as yet more proof that all is well with President Mugabe’s and Zanu-PF’s leadership.

Further, as I have already said, Zanu-PF is playing the long game and in that regard, these by-elections have become a strategic tool in the 2018 elections. Zanu-PF does not mind going into the by-elections without any serious competition. In fact, it prefers that scenario, and how better than to keep the main rival away, exploiting its “No Reforms No Elections” campaign? And this is how they might do it:

After the June 10 by-elections, more will follow in the next three years leading to the 2018 election.

All Zanu PF needs to do it to fire its unwanted MPs in selected groups from time to time, thereby triggering by-elections. The staggered approach to by-elections means the country will always be in election mode until 2018. Strategically, this will place the boycotting opposition in a tight spot because Zanu PF will not carry out any electoral reforms and meanwhile they will be holding regular by-elections without any serious competition. Before you know it, the 2018 election season will be upon us. At that point, the MDC will be forced to yet again make the difficult decision whether to participate or to boycott the general elections. If they participate without reforms, all the boycotts will seem like a massive waste. If they boycott, Zanu PF will not mind; in fact, they will be pleased with the open goal opportunity.

The MDC-T may not be participating, but for Zanu PF, they and Mujuru are part of the whole game. They are there and a Zanu PF victory will be a victory against them too.

Fear of Failure

Finally, politicians are never cock-sure, even when things look obvious to by-standers. There is always the fear of failure. Something might go wrong. You have to be cautious. If necessary you have to throw the kitchen sink. You approach every election like all others. You cannot be complacent. This fear of failure drives you to invest more and to do more. There is Hurungwe West, a very difficult constituency in which they have had to deploy all their usual dirty tactics against Temba Mliswa. There are Bulawayo urban constituencies, for so long strongholds of the MDC, but now left open by the MDC’s boycott. Nothing is certain in politics. So they have to take the by-elections seriously, lest they lose and face embarrassment. It would be very embarrassing indeed to lose any of those seats when your major rival is boycotting the elections.

Ironically, this boycott actually adds pressure on Zanu PF to win all the elections.

• This article first appeared on Magaisa’s website: www.alexmagaisa.com