Zimbabwe and the West Patching Things Up?

Old friends, old enemies

The groundwork for reconciliation was first laid by Zimbabwe’s coalition government, which ruled from 2009 to 2013. Under this unity agreement – whereby Morgan Tsvangirai was prime minister and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) party was in government alongside Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party – the West was able to re-engage with Zimbabwe without dealing directly with the much demonised Mugabe. The fact that Tsvangirai and the MDC-T are now back to being part of the opposition, following their poor showing in the 2013 elections, does not seem to have changed much from either the West’s or Zimbabwe’s perspective.

In fact, the post-coalition ZANU-PF government has already indicated that improving relations with the West is high on its priorities. For instance, finance minister Patrick Chinamasa has already been in Washington DC in a bid to re-engage with international financial institutions, while tourism minister Walter Mzembi was in London earlier this month trying to sell the country as a tourist destination and conduct what he referred to as “commercial diplomacy.”

There are a number of reasons Zimbabwe may be keen to mend the relationship with the West that deteriorated in the late 1990s and was effectively destroyed following Zimbabwe’s fast-track land reform programmes of the early 2000s.

ZANU-PF’s change of heart

Firstly, it seems that calculations amongst high-level ZANU-PF figures as to how they can best position themselves have changed. Until recently, powerful forces within the party, in particular hardliners and ex-securocrats, believed that they could better advance their narrow interests by maintaining the status quo, despite its downsides, such as sanctions.

One reason for this is that amongst both domestic voters and non-Western counterparts, the charismatic Mugabe has largely been able to make his antagonism with the West an effective rallying call and source of legitimacy. However, with the long-standing leader likely to step down before the next election, his protégés are now conscious that sustaining an anti-Western stance in the medium-term could not only be burdensome but risky. Without the octogenarian former freedom fighter at the helm, making enmity with the West pay – in the face of sanctions and an international pariah status – could prove a far harder ploy to pull off. Party stalwarts therefore seem to be coming to the view that their longer-term attempts to hold onto power may be better served by improved Western relations.

One recent sign of this change of heart came earlier this month when Chinamasa, one of Mugabe’s closest aides, struck a highly conciliatory note with foreign investors in a reassuring address that contrasted sharply with his boss’ previous bellicose rhetoric towards Western companies. Not only does this reveal Chinamasa’s attitude, but, given that ZANU-PF policy still tends to be shaped by its leader’s positions, this move also likely reflects the view from above.

A second reason for Zimbabwe’s shift regarding the West could be straightforward economic concerns. With local banks and state coffers running low, ZANU-PF – which is well aware that economic problems tend to increase support for the opposition – knows it will have to access international credits lines and investment to turn around the economy. This explains why soon after the elections Mugabe dispatched his finance minister to Washington for meetings with International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Finance Corporation (IFC) and World Bank.

Zimbabwe’s turn to the US and Europe for economic support is further necessitated by shortcomings in Mugabe’s ‘Look East’ policy. When Zimbabwe was snubbed by the West following the 2000 land reform, Mugabe tried to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia, in particular China, as well the likes of India and countries in the Middle East. But although China has reportedly played a crucial role in helping Mugabe maintain his power, the president’s Look East policy hasn’t led to as much aid and investment as had been hoped. From an economic perspective, looking west again as well makes sense.

Look West

While Zimbabwe has been recalibrating its stance towards the West, many Western countries’ positions have also been shifting. Whereas ten years ago it might have been seen as morally questionable and also insensitive to local pro-democracy protestors to make any form of engagement with Mugabe’s administration, the July 2013 elections opened a new space for fresh foreign policy thinking on Zimbabwe. Although a number of countries claimed that the elections were fraught with irregularities, the endorsements of the African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) regarding the polls no doubt helped provide cover for this policy shift. And since the elections, though also in anticipation of them, there has been a quiet flurry of Western overtures towards Zimbabwe.

In the UK, for example, the Zimbabwean embassy in London not only celebrated Zimbabwe’s Independence Day for the first time in a decade recently, but counted a British representative amongst its attendees. Prime Minister David Cameron has also been determinedly quiet on the issue of Zimbabwe – in stark contrast to his predecessors Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – while the British media has started to question the futility of the UK government’s hard-line stance against Zimbabwe and started to present more positive coverage of Zimbabwe, particularly its land reform.

Belgium meanwhile, the centre of the global diamond industry, successfully lobbied the EU this September to lift sanctions against the state-run Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC). French, German and Dutch ambassadors have also recently expressed a willingness to engage with Mugabe’s new government, with the new French ambassador reportedly telling Mugabe that, “More and more of us in the EU are beginning to share Zimbabwe’s analysis and we now need a new strategy for engaging Zimbabwe outside sanctions.”

Over in the US, despite some initial criticism of the election, Washington has expressed little more than a perfunctory concern with electoral irregularities and could be persuaded to climb down from its position in due course. While down in Australia, which was initially the most vocally critical of the elections, there is a new prime minister who advocates a trade-centred foreign policy and who seems comfortable with the idea of re-engaging with Zimbabwe.

A different legacy

These shifts in the Zimbabwe-West relationship are undoubtedly occurring slowly. From a Western perspective, this might partly be so that pro-democracy and human rights activists who are still determined to see Mugabe defenestrated are not too unnerved. While from a Zimbabwean viewpoint, the cautious speed of change could derive from Mugabe’s reluctance to be seen to be striking a deal with West after years of vehemently decrying its leaders, a stance that has made him a hero in many people’s eyes.

But though slow, there are no shortage of signs that the thaw is happening, and as surprising as they may seem when looking back over the past decade or so of Zimbabwean-Western relations, the longer view over three or four decades perhaps makes it seem less unexpected.

Mugabe and ZANU-PF have long been pragmatists. After all, in the 1970s, Mugabe and ZANU-PF were ‘communists’ reviled in the West, but throughout the 1980s and 1990s, his government became the trustee of Western commercial interests in Zimbabwe. Indeed, this tells us not only that Mugabe is a pragmatist, but also that when he starts using language of rapprochement, we ought to pay attention.

People in both Zimbabwe and the West may be used to demonising or celebrating the supposedly anti-Western Mugabe, but the evidence is increasingly suggesting that he intends to leave a different legacy and that the West may be ready to help.

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