The Zimbabwe Situation

Harare - Zimbabwe's top court has quashed an attempt by human rights groups
to force President Robert Mugabe's government to make public the contents of
an enquiry into believed atrocities comitted by the army 20 years ago, a
newspaper said on Saturday.

The atrocities were allegedly committed by the army during a security
clampdown in southern Zimbabwe shortly after independence in 1980, against
dissidents committing armed banditry in the Matabeleland and Midlands
provinces.

In 1983 the government created a commission to investigate atrocities
committed against civilians during the operation, but the findings were
never made public.

Human rights groups say the commission was given proof of widespread rights
abuses by the army from hundreds of witnesses.

Mugabe, who was prime minister when the commission was set up, was cited as
the first respondent in the recent Supreme Court application, the state-run
Herald reported on Saturday.

But the Supreme Court dismissed the application, which had been filed by the
Legal Resources Foundation and Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights group. The
paper did not say when the judgement was handed down.

Justice Misheck Cheda ruled that Mugabe could not be compelled to reveal the
findings contained in the report.

"As long as the first respondent declines to publish the report on the basis
of the interest of the state and safety of other persons, he cannot be
compelled to publish the reports," Cheda was quoted as saying.

Thousands of civilians are believed to have died during the army operation,
codenamed Gukurahundi, which the government said was aimed at suppressing an
armed uprising by ex-guerrillas loyal to Mugabe's former political rival,
Joshua Nkomo.

In their application the human rights lawyers also wanted Mugabe to reveal
the findings of another commission tasked with investigating an uprising in
1980 by members of one of two Zimbabwean liberation armies that defeated
white minority rule and brought about independence earlier the same year.

Members of the Zimbabwe Peoples Revolutionary Army, loyal to Nkomo, were
accused of going back to the bush shortly after independence and fighting a
dissident war against the government.

In 1997 the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace, together with the
Legal Resources Foundation, released its own report on the Matabeleland
disturbances entitled "Breaking the Silence".

It chronicled atrocities that took place between 1982-1988 that included
murder, rape, destruction of homesteads and torture on a large scale.

The Herald said five judges had heard the application from the rights
groups, who had argued that after 20 years it was no longer necessary to
keep the two reports confidential.

Harare - State prosecutors dropped all charges on Friday against 52 trade
unionists and their supporters, arrested during nationwide demonstrations
against President Robert Mugabe's autocratic rule and mounting economic
hardships. State attorneys informed Harare magistrate Sukai Tongogara that
they had insufficient evidence to press charges against the group under
Zimbabwe's sweeping security laws. Nearly 90 people, including 14 labour
leaders, were arrested on Tuesday in demonstrations called by the Zimbabwe
Congress of Trade Unions and political reform activists. Police had declared
the protests illegal. The 52 arrested in the capital, including the
federation's top four leaders, were held for two days before they were
brought to court. Tongogara released them on condition they appeared in
court on Friday to face charges of organising illegal demonstrations, which
were later dropped. Brian Raftopoulos, a spokesperson for those released,
said the group will consider filing suit against the police for wrongful
arrest and detention. He accused police of using the country's Public Order
and Security Act for political ends. "They succeeded in stopping our
demonstrations and kept us in detention and off the streets, and maybe that
is the aim at the moment," said Raftopoulos, head of the Crisis in Zimbabwe
Coalition, an alliance of reform groups.

On Thursday, nine protesters were charged with organising an illegal
demonstration in the country's second city, Bulawayo, federation officials
said. They were released on condition they appear for trial on December 3.
More than a dozen others were released without charge on Thursday in the
eastern border city of Mutare. Thirteen protesters remained in custody on
Friday in the central industrial town of Gweru, as police and prosecutors
tried to decide whether to charge them, federation officials said. Zimbabwe
is in the throes of economic and political crisis, with official inflation
running at 526 percent and critical shortages of food, gasoline and other
imports. The often-violent seizure of white-owned farms for redistribution
to impoverished blacks has crippled the agriculture-based economy. Mugabe's
government has also stepped up a crackdown on dissent, arresting political
opponents, harassing labour groups and shutting down the country's only
independent daily newspaper.

Media Institute of Southern Africa (Windhoek)

November 21, 2003
Posted to the web November 21, 2003

Windhoek

The following statement was issued on 20 November 2003 by acting High
Commissioner for Human Rights Bertrand Ramcharan:

"The acting United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights expresses his
concern regarding reports that more than 100 trade unionists and civil
leaders have been arrested on 18 November 2003 during a protest
demonstration in the capital Harare.

Last month, the Commission on Human Rights' Special Rapporteur on the
promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression,
Ambeyi Ligabo; the Chairperson-Rapporteur of the Commission's Working Group
on Arbitrary Detention, Leila Zerrougui, and the Special Representative of
the Secretary-General on human rights defenders, Hina Jilani, also expressed
concern regarding the arrest of more than forty trade unionists during a
national protest demonstration.

The Acting High Commissioner appeals to the Zimbabwean authorities to take
all necessary measures to guarantee the rights of the detained persons and
to secure their right to freedom of opinion and expression in accordance
with the fundamental principles as set forth in the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights and reiterated in the international human rights norms and
instruments".

Zimbabwe Independent (Harare)

November 21, 2003
Posted to the web November 21, 2003

Tendai Biti

THE budget statement presented yesterday by Finance minister Herbert Murerwa
is once again an indictment of Zanu PF rule.

It shows beyond doubt that this government has failed. It is a populist
budget, underpinned by dishonesty and hypocrisy.

It is dishonest in that it fails to address the three fundamental
macro-economic issues of the exchange rate, inflation and negative interest
rates. It is hypocritical in its attempt to disguise its crude populism.
More importantly, it is a vehicle for the continued reproduction legally and
extra-legally of Zanu PF.

Of immediate procedural concern is the fact that the blue book, which
contains the actual revenue and expenditure estimates, was not made
available by the minister. This is unconstitutional, and technically means
that the budget has not been presented. Zanu PF thus does not even have the
capacity to present the budget, much less implement it.

The severity of the crisis is such that there was some hope of new ideas,
but sadly the budget statement provides no evidence of any sort of change on
the government side. On the pivotal macro-economic management issues in the
current crisis, the budget statement failed to make clear any position.
Decisions on these crucial areas are held over to the RBZ governor's
monetary policy statement, which is promised by mid-December.

If the minister took seriously for a moment his statements about not being
able to continue doing business as usual, the need to act expeditiously and
to build confidence in the government's policy stance, he would surely have
grasped the nettle of articulating policies to fight what he said was the
country's number one enemy - inflation.

When the RBZ governor pronounces on monetary policy and inflation, there can
be very little hope of any policy change. The very first action in the week
after the new governor's appointment was to pump huge amounts of liquidity
into the market, a certain formula for increasing the rate of inflation.

Another major issue the minister correctly identifies is the need to expand
export revenues. The statement rightly notes the loss of competitiveness of
the mining industry due to a fixed exchange rate in the face of rampant
inflation. The solution is to devalue the currency, but instead of this the
statement talks of "recapitalisation" of the export industries. This means
worsening the fiscal deficit without changing one iota the lack of incentive
to export.

Incredibly, the statement also makes clear that "quasi-fiscal" expenditures,
which in 2003 amounted to an astronomical amount of over 3,5% of GDP, are to
be prohibited. This means that the payments to gold and tobacco producers to
compensate them for the inadequate exchange rate will be discontinued.

These payments had fallen to well below the levels required for viability
and it was widely expected that there would either be an across-the-board
devaluation in the budget or else an increase in the special allowances for
export sectors. As they are to fall away, the total demise of two of
Zimbabwe's prime export industries - gold and tobacco - is now certain.

In the face of this implication in his statement, how can the minister be
taken seriously on any claims about economic recovery?

The minister also ducks the crucial issue of interest rates in the budget
statement. The tired description he gives of measures to achieve a supply
side response makes it clear that the economically irrational notion of
suppressed interest rates is going to continue.

The nation has been told about supply side response for three years and
during that time GDP has actual contracted by minus 30%. And despite
whatever supply side measures are touted, the budget statement itself is
anticipating a further decline of minus 8,5% in GDP in 2004.

Keeping interest rates below inflation, and pretending that the "leaks" such
an adverse incentive structure creates can be controlled, is one of the
major causes of the present crisis. When there is a gap between interest
rates and inflation, economists talk of "negative real interest rates".

As any first-year economics student would know, the problem with negative
real interest rates is that they destroy the basis for savings, investment
and growth in the economy and create the conditions for speculation and
accelerating currency depreciation and inflation.

Just as Zanu PF has no respect for the rule of law, it has no respect either
for the laws of economics. These may not be written down in statute books,
but economic laws nonetheless apply in the real world. "Cheating" by trying
to manipulate one economic lever has inevitable consequences elsewhere in
the economy.

In this case, the cheating allows the well connected to enrich themselves,
while ordinary people's lives are devastated by hyperinflation, loss of
jobs, shortages of food and the collapse of the health and education
services.

Turning to the budget itself, it hardly merits detailed analysis for the
simple reason that it is based on totally unrealistic assumptions about GDP
and inflation. If Zanu PF manages to cling onto power, there will be one or
probably two or more supplementary budgets in order to raise expenditures to
somewhere near keeping pace with ever accelerating inflation.

As usual, the inflation assumptions underlying the budget, are not made
explicit: lack of transparency is after all one of the hallmarks of the Zanu
PF government. However, working back from figures that are provided in the
statement, it would appear that the assumption is that inflation will
average around 570% in 2004.

The ministry's inflation estimates, however, are totally at variance with
the policies of rigorous control on foreign currency, negative real interest
rates and a continued significant budget deficit. The domestic funding of a
very significant budget deficit provides the underlying inflationary
pressures in the economy.

The problem for the budget formulators is the government's denial that it is
its own policies that are responsible for the acceleration of inflation. To
admit as much would require much higher inflation to be assumed as a basis
for the budget.

Evidently it is considered less embarrassing by Zanu PF to have patently
absurd numbers for the national budget than to admit that inflation is going
to move to above a 1 000% in 2004. Our estimate is that if Zanu PF continues
in power and maintains the policies described in the budget, inflation in
2004 will rise be above 1 000% before midyear, and will probably average at
least 1 200% for the year as a whole.

Needless to say, the impact of inflation at these levels will be
devastating, not least on the expenditure categories in the budget. To take
some examples from the budget for 2004: Health was allocated in 2003 (after
the supplementary) $122 billion, and has been allocated $701 billion in
2004.

That's a nominal increase of 475%, but a fall in real terms of minus 56%.

Even though Zanu PF is apparently content to see the health service totally
collapse (even going to the extent of arresting medical personnel to
accelerate the process), it seems likely that there will be a return to
parliament for a supplementary budget in 2004.

It is notable that the repressive sectors - Defence and Home Affairs - while
also due for expenditure reductions in real terms, are much smaller than the
decimation being inflicted on the health sector. The expenditure on
repressive wages alone is 20% more than the entire budget of the health
sector.

Similar analyses could be made of every other sector and expenditure
category. The amounts allocated are simply inconsistent with the terrifying
inflationary prospects implied by the macro-economic policies and budge
deficit. A case in point is civil service wages: these have been increased
significantly in nominal terms. Civil servants will experience a reduction
of real purchasing power of their wages of more than 40%. If they find this
unacceptable and protest, on present form they will also be arrested.

Also of major concern on the expenditure side is the fact that 15% of the
budget (a staggering $1,3 trillion) has been entrusted to the Minister of
Finance as an unallocated reserve. This is dangerous and unconstitutional.

It means that government can spend such a large amount of money without
parliamentary scrutiny. We have pointed out before that the unallocated
reserve represents a special Zanu PF slush fund and should thus be
delegitimised.

On the revenue side, the budget statement makes some acknowledgment of the
unfairness of workers with salaries well below the poverty datum line being
taxed at the top marginal rate of 45%. The income tax threshold has been
raised to $2,4 million, but in view of the prospect of inflation rising to
over 1 000% before mid 2004, this gesture is also hollow as it will soon be
overtaken by events, and poor people will once again have to pay income tax.

Once the MDC is in power, we will link the tax threshold to an independently
monitored, regularly updated poverty datum line.

It is no surprise that the 2004 budget statement is completely lacking in
any coherent economic ideas. Nonetheless, given the severity of the economic
crisis that the country faces, there was always the hope before it was
presented that the government might try to reverse its past policy stance.

But no. Even if Zanu PF had legitimately won the last two elections, which
it did not, they have forfeited the legitimacy to govern by choosing and
implementing such destructive economic policies.

It is only when there is a total change of regime that the economic
reconstruction and recovery which Zimbabweans are crying out for can
commence. The MDC's economic blueprint - Restart - will tackle the deep
economic crisis through a comprehensive five-year programme of fully
co-ordinated fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, sectoral and trade polices.

The objectives of Restart are to reconstruct the social fabric and economic
infrastructure, stabilise the macro-economy, recover levels of savings,
investment and growth and begin to transform the economy and society to
eliminate social exclusion and achieve equitable, inclusive national
development.

The sooner MDC assumes power, the sooner Restart can begin addressing the
crisis and bringing hope to the people of Zimbabwe.

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LUSAKA, Zambia (Reuters) -- Zambia's central bank governor on Friday tried
to woo foreign farmers, including white landowners forced to leave Zimbabwe,
to the country with an offer of free land in a bid to revive the
agricultural sector.

Food shortages have affected a number of countries across southern Africa in
the past two years, increasing governments' eagerness to attract commercial
farmers with access to the capital needed to create large, productive farms.

"There are two areas where a total of 200,000 hectares of farmland is ready
for occupation," central bank governor Caleb Fundanga told journalists. "The
government is ready to give farmers from 50 hectares to 2,000 hectares
depending on the size of the land they want."

He hopes crops such as vegetables and roses will reduce Zambia's dependence
on copper and cobalt mining.

Treasury data shows that 70 percent of Zambia's arable land is not being
used.

Fundanga said some established farms were also up for sale or lease to
interested investors, but gave no further details.

He said Zambia had invited over 100 foreign and local farmers to an
agricultural investment conference starting on Monday in a bid to boost the
agricultural sector.

Growing numbers of white farmers have already settled in Zambia, bringing
more than $100 million in investments with them, a Zambia Investments Centre
official said last month.

Many white commercial farmers have left Zimbabwe since the President Robert
Mugabe's government began a programme of seizing land for redistribution to
landless blacks, often accompanied by violent farm occupations.

Neighbouring Mozambique has opened its doors to around 60 commercial farmers
fleeing Zimbabwe, hoping to shore up its rural economy, infrastructure and
tackle dire poverty.

"We are trying to encourage agriculture so that it can complement foreign
exchange earnings from mining. We would like the farmers to grow export
crops such as maize, vegetables and roses," Fundanga said.

Zambia is emerging from a severe food shortage that affected more than 14
million people at its peak earlier this year. The impoverished country has
put agriculture at the top of its agenda, seeking to boost output and
farming skills.

Lusaka - Non-oil producing Zambia has begun fuel exports to Zimbabwe and the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and will spend US$73.4 million improving
crude storage and processing facilities, senior government officials has
said. Separately, the oil minister said Zambia hoped to build a pipeline
from the Copperbelt town of Ndola to Lubumbashi in the Democratic Republic
of Congo to improve exports of petroleum products to the vast central
African country, possibly with help from Iran. A senior government official
said Zambia was exporting fuel to Zimbabwe to help that country to avert a
fuel shortage that is crippling economic activity in Zimbabwe as it faces an
unprecedented political and economic crisis. "Zambia started to export
petrol to Zimbabwe in August at the request of that country's government
officials," said the official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of
anonymity. The official did not give details on how much petrol had been
exported to Zimbabwe. But Energy and Water Development Minister George
Mpombo told parliament late yesterday that Zambia had exported five million
litres of petrol in October alone to the Democratic Republic of Congo and
"other neighbouring countries." "In October we exported five million litres
of petrol to the Congo and other neighbouring countries," Mpombo said. "Iran
wants to help us to put up a pipeline from Ndola to Lubumbashi," Mpombo
added, but gave no further details.

Zambia meets all of its fuel needs by importing crude and refining it at
Indeni, the country's only refinery, which is 50 percent owned by France's
Total TOTF.PA . It also exports surplus supplies. Mpombo also said Zambia
would rehabilitate crude oil storage and pumping facilities. "The facilities
for handling crude oil and processing feedstock are in poor state ... a lot
of rehabilitation and replacement works need to be done and we need US$63.4
million for Tazama," Mpombo said. The state-owned Tazama stores and pumps
Zambia's crude oil imports via a pipeline from the port of Dar-Es-Salaam to
Ndola, where another state firm, Indeni Oil Refinery refines the crude oil.
"We are sourcing funds through bilateral and multilateral arrangements ...
similarly for Indeni there need to rehabilitate a number of very important
equipment at the refinery. "It is estimated the refinery needs an injection
of $10 million," Mpombo said. Mpombo said Iranian state oil utility,
Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO), would start to supply Zambia with crude
oil after signing a one-year contract, with the first consignment of 90 000
tonnes expected in January.

Dear Family and Friends,

We have become a zero society and are struggling to keep up with all the digits these days. We all look at prices and say to ourselves, "is that a hundred thousand, or a million, or a billion?" My calculator has only got a 10 digit display so once I get to 9.9 billion I'm in trouble. My mind boggled when I sat listening to our 2004 budget which was all in billions or trillions of dollars and in desperation I turned to my dictionary to see just how many zeros there are in a "trillion" dollars. I wrote it down carefully and then counted digits. A trillion has 12 zeros after it !

Zimbabwe's budget for 2004 lost all credibility for me in the first half of the first sentence when the Minister of Finance began his presentation by saying : "Sanctions imposed on the country have worsened the economic environment..." His statement was interrupted by jeers, groans and calls of disapproval from the House who know very well that it is only 79 top government officials who have had sanctions imposed on them and not the eleven and a half million people of the country.

Before presenting the budget, Finance Minister Murerwa outlined what can only be described as utter chaos. He talked about the near collapsed state of virtually every government owned sector and asset including the airline and airports, railways, mines, schools, hospitals, grain marketing board, fuel procurement facilities, roads, water, sewage and government owned buildings. The Minister spoke of "runaway inflation," "rampant environmental degradation" and collapsing infrastructure across the entire country. He told us that inflation would rise to 600% by Christmas and to 700% by the end of April 2004 and said that this was not in line with inflation in other Southern African countries whose average inflation is just 14%. I sat forward in my chair with my pen poised as the Minister began to outline how he was going to rescue the country from this unspeakable disaster but didn't write much as I soon discovered that what he was presenting was a beer, football and strong arm budget.

The second highest amount of our national budget was allocated to the Ministry of Defence who were given 1.27 trillion dollars. The Minister's words were met by such roars of disapproval that the Speaker had to repeatedly call for order in the House and then the sentence had to be read again. Unbelievably the Minister allocated 1.4 billion dollars to the country's national football team for their match against Tunisia and later announced that tax on cigarettes and beer had been reduced. It seems that the solutions to Zimbabwe's problems are that we can smoke and drink ourselves to death and watch football on television while being guarded by well armed police and soldiers. Assuming of course that we can afford a television which now costs more than a 4 bedroomed house on an acre of land cost just 2 years ago.

To people outside Zimbabwe, this may all sound quite amusing but for those of us living here it is a nightmare. Our government have completely lost the plot. They join our state owned television station whose motto is "When it happens we will be there." ZBC television were not there at all this week when 360 trade union leaders, activists and civic leaders were arrested for trying to protest. ZBC TV did not report the protest itself, nor the arrests or 3 day detentions of the country's most highly respected people. Neither the government nor ZBC told us that the post office workers have been on strike all week, instead they flighted a new propaganda jingle about land and another for the country's tax collection authority.

In a strangely absurd way, the 2004 budget for Zimbabwe gave me hope because now the collapse of the country is crystal clear for all to see and with that in sight, the end becomes inevitable. I'm off to see if I can find a policeman to watch me while I have a beer and a cigarette and watch football! So, from our trillion dollar cloud cuckoo land, until next week, with love, cathy.

Copyright cathy buckle 22nd November 2003. http://africantears.netfirms.com
My books on the Zimbabwean crisis, "African Tears" and "Beyond Tears" are available from: UK contact handzup_02@hotmail.com ; Australia and New Zealand: johnmreed@johnreedbooks.com.au ; Africa: www.kalahari.net www.exclusivebooks.com