• MDC Press Conference in Johannesburg - Statement
• Something Does Not Add Up in Mugabe's Land Report
• JAG Open Letters Forum No. 169
• JAG Commercials dated 20 October 2003
• MDC Weekend Rallies
• REDRESS condemns attack on human rights lawyer
• Mugabe desperate to find evidence of British 'plot'
• Possible scenarios for Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe Opposition Fears Another Delay in Election Challenge
• Without new constitution, no chance for opposition
• Maputo welcomes fleeing farmers
• Zimbabweans scramble to survive 'Mafia' economy
• Lawsuit against Mugabe aims to expose S.Africa claim
• ‘Mugabe must go’ call from UNI-Africa 18.10.2003
• Lack of foreign currency hampers seed purchases

Business Day (Johannesburg)

ANALYSIS
October 21, 2003
Posted to the web October 21, 2003

Dumisani Muleya
Johannesburg

A REPORT produced by Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's land review
committee has shown his government has been misleading critics over its
controversial land reform programme.

The report, which is yet to be made public, says only 127000 people were
resettled under the state's chaotic fast-track programme and not 300000 as
always officially claimed.

"The committee established that nationally a total of 2652 farms with a
combined 4231080ha had been allocated to 127192 households under the A1
resettlement model as of July 31 2003," the report says.

"As for the A2 resettlement model, the corresponding figures were 1672 farms
amounting to 2198814ha for 7260 beneficiaries," it says.

The government has claimed that more than more than 50000 people were
resettled under the A2 resettlement model compared with the stated 7260, in
the report produced by a team led by Mugabe's former secretary, Charles
Utete. In provinces such as Matabeleland South, there has been a total lack
of take-up of allocated farms under A2.

A lot of farms in Zimbabwe are lying idle and derelict either because people
have no resources or interest in utilising them.

Some of land earmarked for resettling villagers nationwide was seized by
Mugabe's ministers and followers for personal benefit.

On top of farms, the ruling elite also looted more than Z75bn worth of
equipment from whiteowned properties.

While the figures in the long-awaited report, expected to provide a detailed
audit of the land reform exercise and its impact on the economy, do not add
up, the rest of the report is saturated with Zanu (PF) propaganda.

It ignores the link between land reform and economic decline and skates over
the destruction of commercial agriculture. The report also overlooks the
well-documented destruction of infrastructure , the food crisis, lawlessness
and violence.

It also lets Mugabe's top public officials, who unlawfully grabbed several
farms, off the hook and glosses over a whole range of issues such as the
plight of farmworkers and the decimation of wildlife .

Foreign powers and the media are cited as stumbling blocks to the exercise,
not lack of resources and inadequate planning.

President Robert Mugabe, is said to be living in fear of a British "plot" to
kill him and has ordered the Zimbabwe spy agency to do a more "thorough job"
of monitoring the activities of the British high commissioner, as a prelude
to his possible expulsion.

Intelligence sources say Mr Mugabe is eager to collect evidence to justify
expelling Sir Brian Donnelly from Zimbabwe, but has, so far, found none.

His various conspiracy theories against Sir Brian, including one that the
high commissioner has spent most of his time preparing the ground for an
Anglo-American invasion of Zimbabwe, have not been backed up by any tangible
evidence.

But Mr Mugabe believes his Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) is being
incompetent and it has not done much to uncover Sir Brian's alleged
activities, despite a similar order last year to place him under close
surveillance.

Sir Brian is under instructions to advise the Zimbabwean Foreign Ministry
when the high commission's diplomats leave the country, an order which also
applies to the US ambassador on the movements of American diplomats.

Mr Mugabe has convinced himself that Britain wants to kill him after failing
to help the opposition remove him from power in the presidential election
last year, sources said. A special task force of CIO officers will now work
full time on monitoring Sir Brian.

An intelligence source said: "The President believes Donnelly is up to
something no good. He even thinks Donnelly is working with his enemies on a
plot to kill him.

"The problem [for Mr Mugabe] is that there is no grain of evidence to
justify all these fears. There has been none found, as far as I know.
Donnelly is just like any other diplomat."

Mr Mugabe wants to have Sir Brian's meetings with opposition and civic
officials monitored. He also suspects that the diplomat might be reaching
out to army officials and other people close to him to facilitate an
assassination plot.

Asked whether Mr Mugabe might take the drastic action of expelling Sir
Brian, even in the unlikely event that he built a case against the high
commissioner, one source said: "I wouldn't put it past him."

The sources said a story, probably planted in Mr Mugabe's main mouthpiece,
The Sunday Mail, blaming Sir Brian for causing Zimbabwe's crippling fuel
crisis, should be seen more as being a result of the regime's frustration
over its failure to get hard evidence to back its imaginary theories.

A few days before publication of the story, Mr Mugabe is said to have met
his top CIO officials, who report to him directly, for a wide-ranging
meeting which also covered Sir Brian.

The high commissioner was accused in the newspaper of causing the fuel
crisis to plunge the nation into chaos and ignite internal resentment ahead
of the Abuja Commonwealth summit in December.

A Foreign Office spokesman yesterday described The Sunday Mail article as
"complete and utter rubbish".

The spokesman said: "It would be laughable if the realities of economic
collapse were not so serious for millions of Zimbabweans." Sir Brian has
written to The Sunday Mail in the same terms.

An oil industry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "If you
can believe the story, then you can believe anything. These are the kinds of
reports that make us a laughing stock of the world.

"Let's be serious about solving our economic problems by first getting the
basics right."

      It would mean a shift in the centre of gravity of political power, and
historical precedents - South Africa and the Soviet Union among them -
suggest that when a geriatric party that has wielded unrestrained power for
many years relinquishes even a part of it, it quickly disintegrates and
dies.

      This scenario would be a high-stakes gamble for both par

      ties, and for that reason may - just - tempt them into accepting.
Again, historical precedents indicate that when parties are deadlocked, as
these are, they will only enter into an agreement if both think they can
win.

      Scenario 4.

      Mugabe's long dominance of Zanu-PF has stunted the growth of his
subordinates, so there is no successor of any stature. This despite the fact
that Zanu-PF has 17 PhD graduates in its ranks. The problem is all have
become corrupt and subservient yes-men - in the words of one senior
diplomat: "a confederacy of the damned".

      A further complication is that Mugabe will want someone he can trust
to continue protecting him when he loses the immunity from prosecution that
goes with the presidency. That makes the Speaker of Parliament, Emmerson
Mnangagwa, his first choice.

      Mnangagwa is a Mugabe loyalist who headed Zanu-PF's intelligence
services for many years, which would couple him with any charges Mugabe
might face - a good insurance against possible betrayal. The problem is he
is highly unpopular within the ruling party and in the country at large,
which makes him a potential loser.

      Given these prospects, Mugabe may well decide that the succession
contest is going nowhere, that all the options are too risky and he would do
better to stay on as executive president himself.

      In that case, Zimbabwe's decline would continue on what I have
referred to as the "Zairisation" road - a long, steady slide to becoming
another Congo.

      Scenario 5.

      There is another alarming possibility. Two weeks ago the chief of the
Zimbabwe Defence Force, General Vitalis Zvinavashi, made a move to enter the
political arena following the death of Senior Vice President Simon Muzenda.
At the same time the word is that there has been a massive increase in the
size of the Zimbabwe Defence Force.

      Put those two factors together and one sees the possible prospect of
an internally managed military option. The recent, to-hell-with-it closure
of the Daily News, threats to other independent newspapers, and the arrest
and beating of trade union leaders strengthen such suspicions.

      Consider the following possibility.

      Supposing Mugabe names General Zvinavashi as senior vice president,
then at the Zanu-PF conference in December (no fixed date yet) announces
that he intends retiring at year's end, and that, in terms of the
constitution, Zvinavashi will take over as acting president to organise a
new election within 90 days.

      Should such an announcement take place before the Commonwealth summit
on December 5-8, would the Commonwealth leaders not be likely to readmit
Zimbabwe to membership?

      But then supposing, after taking over as acting president, Zvinavashi
were to announce early next year that the country was too unstable to hold
an election, that he was suspending the constitution and would retain
control with military backing until stability could be restored and an
election held. Which, as one sees in Pakistan, could be years.

      Forgive me if I have a nasty suspicious mind, but I have seen too many
political shenanigans in my time not to include this among the possible
scenarios.

Zimbabwe Opposition Fears Another Delay in Election Challenge Challiss McDonough Johannesburg 21 Oct 2003, 16:07 UTC      AP Paul Themba Nyathi, left, and David Colthart The main opposition party in Zimbabwe is getting ready for its court case challenging last year's presidential election. The case is scheduled to go to court in about two weeks, but the party fears it could be delayed yet again. Two senior leaders of the Zimbabwean Movement for Democratic Change told reporters in Johannesburg that they are afraid the court case challenging the election could be put off again if there is not pressure from the international community to keep the trial on schedule. The opposition party filed its court case in April of last year, after President Robert Mugabe was declared the winner of an election that several international observer missions called deeply flawed. MDC spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi said the party has had to file several legal motions just to get the case into court, despite a provision in the country's Electoral Act requiring election disputes to be handled quickly. "The very fact that it has taken over 18 months for the case to come to court is a serious indictment against the state of Zimbabwe's democracy," he said. Both the South African embassy and the Zimbabwe Council of Churches have been shuttling back and forth between the Movement for Democratic Change and President Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party, in a joint attempt to get some kind of dialogue going. So far they have had little success. There are reports that so-called "talks-about-talks" are happening at some level, but it is not clear how much progress they are making. Critics have said the electoral challenge is increasing tensions in Zimbabwe and interfering with attempts to mediate talks between the opposition and ZANU-PF. Movement for Democratic Change officials dismissed that criticism. Mr. Nyathi says the MDC is exercising its democratic right to challenge the election. The party's secretary for legal affairs, David Coltart, said it has offered to postpone the court action if there is a breakthrough in talks with ZANU-PF. But he says dropping the case completely is out of the question for now. "The case is in fact our only peaceful weapon, and so we cannot drop that case unless we can be assured that the discussion, the talking process is irreversible," he said. Mr. Coltart says he is afraid ZANU-PF and government officials are not taking the case very seriously. He says the High Court has not yet appointed a judge to handle the trial, even though the opening arguments are scheduled for November 3. The opposition official says he does not believe the electoral challenge will lead to a solution to what he calls the Zimbabwe crisis. With the economy on the brink of collapse, he says, the two sides will have to hammer out some kind of political solution long before the court case is over.

Without new constitution, no chance for opposition

Wilson Johwa

Harare - Zimbabwe's main constitutional change pressure group has taken its
campaign to a new level, demanding that the next general election be held
only under a new democratic constitution. The National Constitutional
Assembly (NCA), a grouping of civic groups, labour unions, churches and
opposition parties, says to get into another election before changing the
rules would be self defeating. "Zimbabweans would be foolish to go into
another election without a new constitution," says chairperson Lovemore
Madhuku. "The current government is not accountable because there is nothing
in the constitution to make it accountable." Zimbabwe is in the grip of its
worst political and economic crises, blamed on the country's long-serving,
all-powerful executive president with a limitless number of terms of office.
Last year the president, Robert Mugabe, won his fifth election since
independence under a cloud of controversy that he stole victory through
intimidation, violence and mass disenfranchisement. The opposition is
contesting the outcome of this election in court.

But the problems go beyond one man. Zimbabwe has not had a popular
constitution since gaining independence from Britain in 1980, following a
protracted liberation struggle against the rebel Rhodesian government of Ian
Smith. The country has been operating on the ceasefire document, signed at
Lancaster House in London, Britain, in 1979 and subsequently amended 15
times. Political analysts in Zimbabwe say a skewed electoral playing field
has helped the ruling party dominate all elections held since 1980. "You can
have a 100 elections under the current constitution and they will all be
stolen," Madhuku says. Elections in Zimbabwe are run by civil servants and
verified by an ineffective Electoral Supervisory Commission appointed by the
president who also has the power to validate and invalidate elections. Thus,
in effect, the constitution allows the president to be both referee and
player.

One of the constitution's major weaknesses is that the presidential election
and parliamentary elections do not have to be held simultaneously. The
presidential term is six years while parliamentarians are elected for five
years. Furthermore, the gap between the two elections is growing. The last
parliamentary election was held in 2000. The presidential election took
place two years later. The next parliamentary elections will be in Mar. or
Apr. 2005 while the presidential election will be in 2008. This two-year
interval between the two elections will swell to five years by 2020,
potentially making the country ungovernable. Madhuku says to reject voting
under the current constitution is not akin to boycotting elections. "We are
saying let's disturb the electoral process under the current constitution.
If an election is called, we will disrupt nomination through mass action."
But the ultimate decision to participate will be left to the political
parties themselves, he says.

Launched in Jan. 1998, the NCA spearheaded the successful campaign against a
new ruling-party-drafted constitution in Feb. 2000, giving President Mugabe
his first ever electoral defeat. Twenty months after its formation, the NCA
gave rise to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) which has since become
the country's main opposition party. Since then the two organisations have
sometimes had an uneasy relationship. "At the moment, the relationship with
the MDC is fine, we are agreed on these principles," Madhuku says. "But we
don't trust that they will be with us on this point." "Political parties are
opportunistic," he says. "When they see power they abandon principle." The
second round of talks between the MDC and Zanu PF aimed at halting the
country's decline has been on and off since March. Madhuku says if the MDC
believe these talks will offer them a chance at power they are likely to
forget about a new constitution.

Equally, he says if the MDC think the current constitution will lead them
into power they will stick to it. "They have some faith in the current
constitution since they have managed to win elections under it." Nine months
after formation in 2000, the MDC won 57 of the contested 120 parliamentary
seats. Since then the party has scored major victories in council elections.
However, MDC spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi says the party is committed to
constitutional reform. "The only way forward for Zimbabwe is through
constitutional reform," he says. Nyathi adds that the decision to contest
elections is made by the MDC's national executive. "We will cross that
particular bridge when we get to it." Meanwhile, Zanu PF spokesperson Nathan
Shamuyarira says the 2005 elections will go ahead as scheduled and that the
ruling party has no plans to adopt a new constitution. He accuses the NCA of
indecisiveness. "They were the ones who rejected the constitution we put on
the table in 2000. They don't seem to know what they want," he alleges.

Maputo welcomes fleeing farmers

By Reuters

Maputo - Commercial farmers fleeing harassment and economic collapse in
Zimbabwe were helping to shore up the rural economy of Mozambique, Helder
Muteia, the agriculture minister, said at the weekend. The government had
already granted permission for 60 farmers from Zimbabwe to settle in Manica
province, which borders eastern Zimbabwe. "They are doing a great job,"
Muteia said. "They are investing not only in agriculture but also in
building infrastructure such as roads and bridges." About 100 farmers have
applied to cultivate land in Manica, but Muteia said Mozambique was looking
for investment in all its provinces and had 34 million square kilometres
available. He said the farmers from Zimbabwe would produce tobacco,
potatoes, maize, sunflowers, meat and dairy products. A number of farmers
have settled in northern Niassa province under the joint South
African-Mozambican Mozagrius project, although Sweden stepped in as the main
partner after South Africa withdrew from the scheme. "They are giving all
the help in reformulating and reorganising the project and, in the future,
maybe in financing the farmers," Muteia said. "Banks see financing
agriculture as a high-risk business and farmers as not paying their debts.
We have to work to change that and this means having legislation and courts
that function properly."

JOHANNESBURG, Oct. 21 — Zimbabwe's main opposition party said on Tuesday its
court challenge to President Robert Mugabe's 2002 election victory would
undermine South Africa's claim that the poll was legitimate.
       A legal affairs spokesman for the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) said a petition filed with a Harare court would refocus world
attention on Zimbabwe's political and economic crisis when the court hears
it on November 3.
       ''We believe it was important to set out for the region, in
particular for the South African government, why we disagreed with the
observer mission statement that the outcome was legitimate,'' David Coltart
told reporters in Johannesburg.
       South Africa's observer mission said last year that the outcome of
the March presidential elections should be considered legitimate despite
condemnation from the 54-nation Commonwealth, non-governmental organisations
and regional parliamentarians.
       South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki has said he favours ''quiet
diplomacy'' to resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe, mired in allegations of
political repression and an increasingly desperate economic crisis after 23
years of Mugabe's rule.
       ''President Mbeki might talk of things moving in Zimbabwe. Unless he
himself gets up and makes things happen, the situation in Zimbabwe can only
get worse,'' said MDC spokesman Paul Themba-Nyathi.

CONSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGE
       Coltart said the case would challenge constitutional flaws in the
election, which returned Mugabe, 79, to power until 2008.
       He added that if the court did not accept the MDC's request to set
aside the result, the party would bring in evidence of electoral fraud,
ballot stuffing and violence against MDC supporters by those loyal to the
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party.
       ''We hope it refocuses world attention on the nub of grievance...this
is about misgovernance. It's about an illegitimate regime,'' he said. ''Even
if we lose the case as a result of (judicial) bias our political objectives
will nevertheless have been achieved.''
       Talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC collapsed a year ago after MDC
President Morgan Tsvangirai filed the court challenge against Mugabe, the
Minister of Justice and election officials.
       But Themba-Nyathi said the talks, which he described as neither alive
nor dead, could be put back on track if Mugabe's government truly desired
change.
       ''There should be talks and those talks should yield some kind of
transitional arrangement which ushers in a new constitutional dispensation
leading to the holding of free and fair elections,'' Themba-Nyathi said.
       Church groups and South Africa's high commission are acting as
intermediaries between ZANU-PF and the MDC, which has led a number of
strikes and protests against Mugabe -- resulting in treason charges against
top MDC leaders.