The Telegraph
By
Peta Thornycroft in Harare, Tom Chivers and agencies
Last Updated: 4:22pm BST
11/04/2008
Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe has banned
all political rallies in
the aftermath of the country's disputed general
election.
The opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
has claimed
victory in the poll, but full results have still not been
announced amid
evidence of vote-rigging.
"We see no reason for
rallies since we have had elections," said
police spokesman Wayne
Bvudzijena.
The first solid evidence of ballot rigging in the
election emerged
when a senior policeman told The Daily Telegraph that
officers marked extra
votes for Mr Mugabe.
Almost two weeks
after polling day, the official result has still not
been announced.
Independent monitors say that Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader
of the MDC, came
first.
But the regime's critics believe that the Electoral
Commission -
chaired by George Chiweshe, a judge and close ally of the
president - will
announce that Mr Mugabe is leading, although probably
falling below the 50
per cent margin needed to avoid a second
round.
"As a party we feel this is a sustained effort on the part
of the
authorities against people who assist the MDC," party spokesman
Nelson
Chamisa said.
"This is an onslaught which is not only
happening in the rural areas,
but even in the civil service as people who
are perceived MDC supporters are
being intimidated."
The MDC
said last night that it would boycott a run-off in the
presidential poll if
one was declared, adding that Mr Tsvangirai won with a
share "much higher"
than the 50.3 per cent it claimed last week.
The police
officer, who cannot be identified for fear of reprisals,
saw a number of
ballot boxes carried into a room at police headquarters in
Harare last
weekend, seven days after the election.
Five or six new recruits
from Morris Depot, all in uniform, then
filled out extra votes for Mr
Mugabe. Ballots for Mr Tsvangirai were
removed, the officer added, to
bolster the president's share of the vote.
"We were in the corridor
and saw the ballot boxes being taken into
Room 96," the officer said. The
police headquaters is only about 300 yards
from Mr Mugabe's office in
Harare.
"We asked somebody who went in there and saw the trainees
filling out
the ballot papers. I am not the only one who knows this, there
are others.
The recruits will do anything they are asked to do. They were
all desperate
for jobs. If they have to beat people they will do
that."
The officer said that senior police commanders were
desperate for
84-year-old Mr Mugabe to hold power to protect their own
interests.
The force, he added, was "very, very corrupt because
surely we cannot
survive on what we earn". Despite recent salary rises,
policemen earn only
£10 a week, before tax.
Shortly before the
election, the ruling Zanu-PF regime changed the
rules to allow police to
"assist voters" inside polling stations. The police
were also responsible
for transmitting the presidential results to the
Electoral Commission's
"command centre" in Harare.
Tendai Biti, the secretary-general of
the MDC, said the party had
evidence of nine million ballot papers being
printed before the election,
despite Zimbabwe's registered electorate of
only 5.9 million.
Figures from the parliamentary election, held on
the same day as the
presidential poll, show that some 2.5 million people
voted.
Mr Biti said: "They want to re-engineer the results. They
have
re-stuffed these ballot boxes. An illegitmate government is in place.
The
failure of the regime in Harare to give in to those who were elected in
our
view constitutes a constitutional coup d'etat."
The
election crisis will be the subject of an emergency summit of
southern
African countries in Zambia's capital, Lusaka, tomorrow. Both Mr
Mugabe and
Mr Tsvangirai could attend, raising the possibility of a public
row.
Mail and Guardian
Godfrey Marawanyika | Harare, Zimbabwe
11 April 2008
05:30
President Robert Mugabe will boycott a weekend Southern
African
summit on the Zimbabwe crisis, state radio said on Friday as the
opposition
called for a general strike to press for the release of election
results.
Mugabe signalled a further clampdown in the country
with a ban
on all political rallies. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
called on the
84-year-old president to stand down.
Mugabe, under pressure since the March 29 election, which the
opposition
insists it won, will be represented at the summit in Zambia by
four senior
ministers, state radio said.
As tension rose over the
election delay, Zimbabwe police accused
the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change of "spoiling for a fight" and
of deploying 350 youth wing
members around the country.
The 14-nation Southern African
Development Community (SADC)
called the summit in a bid to mediate with the
opposition the MDC, whose
leader, Tsvangirai, has confirmed he will be in
Lusaka.
Tsvangirai called on Mugabe to quit and appealed to
the summit
participants to ensure democracy prevails in
Zimbabwe.
"He should recognise that he has lost and let me
get on with
making our great country great once more," Tsvangirai said in a
statement.
"This is an historic moment for SADC and a
defining moment for
Africa. We can show the world that we, Africa, can solve
our own problems
and safeguard democracy and the rule of law," Tsvangirai
said.
The sense of crisis in the country, which has an
estimated 100
000% inflation and is stricken by grave economic problems,
increased as the
government banned all political rallies.
"We see no reason for rallies since we have had elections,"
police
spokesperson Wayne Bvudzijena said.
Crackdown
The MDC also accused the Mugabe government of stepping up a
crackdown by
arresting a lawyer for simply demanding the release of a
helicopter hired by
Tsvangirai for his presidential campaign.
The helicopter had
been confiscated by police and the pilot, a
South African national, was
detained on March 25 for alleged fraud and
immigration transgressions. He
spent nine days behind bars before being
freed.
"As a
party we feel this is a sustained effort on the part of
the authorities
against people who assist the MDC," spokesperson Nelson
Chamisa
said.
"This is an onslaught which is not only happening in
the rural
areas, but even in the civil service as people who are perceived
MDC
supporters are being intimidated."
The MDC issued
pamphlets calling for a general strike to be
launched on Tuesday until the
presidential election result is announced.
"We call upon
transporters, workers, vendors and everyone to
stay at home; the power is in
our hands. Zimbabweans have been taken for
granted for too long. We demand
that the presidential election results be
announced now."
Amid mounting calls from international powers for the release of
the
election results, Mugabe's Zanu-PF has said there must be a
run-off.
The opposition has ruled out Tsvangirai's
participation in any
second-round vote, accusing Mugabe of launching a
campaign of intimidation
that would affect the true democratic
result.
"The military leaders in the establishment are trying
to subvert
the will of the people," Tsvangirai said this
week.
"This is, in a sense, a de-facto military coup. They
have rolled
out military forces across the whole country, to prepare for a
run-off and
try to cow the population. It's an attempt to try to create
conditions for
Mugabe to win."
Tsvangirai met on Thursday
in Pretoria with President Thabo
Mbeki of South Africa, officials
said.
Mbeki, the regional heavyweight, has come under fire
for failing
to condemn the long delay in announcing the presidential poll
result.
"The meeting went well. The details of it are not at
this stage
for public consumption," MDC spokesperson Nqobizitha Mlilo said,
giving the
first news of the meeting on Friday.
A legal
bid by the opposition to force Zimbabwe's electoral
commission to declare
the result is still under consideration by a judge and
no decision on the
matter is expected until Monday, at the earliest. -- AFP,
Reuters
Times Online
April 11, 2008
The post-election impasse in Zimbabwe is
the subject of an emergency meeting
of the southern African regional bloc in
Zambia tomorrow
Alexi Mostrous
Morgan Tsvangirai, the Zimbabwean
opposition leader, flew to Zambia today
before a crucial summit of southern
African leaders aimed at resolving
Zimbabwe's political turmoil.
Levy
Mwanawasa, the Zambian President, will host an urgent meeting of the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) tomorrow to formulate a
regional approach to the worsening situation. Mr Mwanawasa has been fiercely
critical of the policies of President Mugabe, last year likening the
country’s
economy to “a sinking Titanic”.
In recent days, Zimbabwe’s
political limbo has moved into violence, as gangs
of Mr Mugabe’s loyalist
thugs roam the country invading and destroying the
few remaining commercial
white-owned farms, while the military has been
deployed to co-ordinate an
intimidation campaign against opposition voters.
Mr Tsvangirai's
opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),
claims it won
Zimbabwe's presidential elections on March 29 and accuses Mr
Mugabe of
delaying the results to orchestrate a run-off.
It has called on southern
African leaders to force Mr Mugabe to step down
before the violence worsens.
“The lives of all pro-democracy actors are not
safe,” Tendai Biti, the MDC
secretary-general, said.
Mr Tsvangirai has travelled around Africa this week
in an attempt to shore
up support against the ageing dictator. On Wednesday,
he saw the President
of Botswana but it was yesterday's meeting with
President Mbeki of South
Africa that was the most crucial.
Mr Mbeki
has previously advocated a policy of “quiet diplomacy” towards
Zimbabwe, but
that strategy has been criticised recently by allies in Africa
and the
West.
An MDC spokesman said today that the meeting with Mr Mbeki had
“gone well”
and that they were “cautiously optimistic” about the outcome. Mr
Tsvangirai
would be a full participant in tomorrow's summit, he added,
reiterating that
the opposition leader’s election win made him a “head of
state”.
In Harare, the High Court is due to rule today on whether the
election
results must be made public.
According to his spokesman, Mr
Mugabe “was eagerly waiting for the [election
commission] to complete its
ballot votes verification freely without any
interference and without
pressure not to release the results.”
“It is not true that the president
nor Government is holding the Zimbabwe
election results,” he
said.
Bright Matonga, the deputy information commissioner for Mr Mugabe’s
Zanu
(PF) party, told CNN that he believed opposition politicians would be
“cowards; if they did not contest a runoff”.
Unwilling to allow Mr
Mugabe to slope off into retirement, those supporting
him – including the
military – have taken the reigns, unleashing an
orchestrated campaign of
terror against opposition activists, election
observes an ordinary voters in
an attempt to secure Mr Mugabe victory in a
second-round
poll.
White-owned farms were the first targets of the violence that
insiders say
is being co-ordinated by 200 handpicked military and
intelligence officers
loyal to the President.
Police have also
arrested Mr Tsvangirai’s lawyer. Innocent Chagonda, who
successfully
defended Mr Tsvangirai from treason charges in 2004, was seized
on charges
related to a helicopter hired for the MDC.
He had apparently demanded
that police release the aircraft, which had been
confiscated, when he was
arrested for “interfering with police work”, the
opposition said.
The
MDC said the arrest yesterday was part of a wider campaign to clamp down
on
the Opposition in the wake of the elections. “As a party we feel this is
a
sustained effort on the part of the authorities against people who assist
the MDC,” it said.
“This is an onslaught which is not only happening
in the rural areas, but
even in the civil service as people who are
perceived MDC supporters are
being intimidated."
Comments
Dear
SADC Members,
This is a simple matter of choosing to do the right thing.
It is an
opportunity that does not often present itself - when a leader who
has run
his country into the ground, and the population - yes the
population, not
some outsider force - speaks loudly and clearly against him
through the
ballot box, without resorting to vandalism, violence and
destruction.
It is the story of a proud, honest and peaceable people, who
need a little
international assistance of honest and courageous men to help
them shed
themselves of the shackles of greed, fear and a power hungry
leader.
I suggest that if you do THE RIGHT THING when you have the chance
this
weekend at SADC, you will be remembered in history for a very long time
to
come. Similarly I expect, if you do NOT do the right thing, you might
also
be remembered, but not for as long, and certainly without honour or
respect!
The choice is yours, and it will take COURAGE to do the right
thing. Do you
have any?
Ant Williams, Johannesburg, South
Africa
Is there not way outside countries can help oust this foolish
dictator. I
understand the thinking of the people loyal to Magabe, as they
see their
comforts sliding away from them and they want to maintain their
lifestyle,
but even a really stupid person can see that the country is
falling into an
abyss of poverty. You can see Magabe has lost the the plot
in a big way, but
it is unfortunate that he can't see it.
GOD HELP THE
POOR COUNTRY OF ZIMBABWE
A.Lynott, Cape Town, South Africa
I
wouldn't hold my breath that something concrete will emerge from this
summit. There was a similar summit last year after Tsvangirai was badly
beaten by Mugabe police. The summit was largely a whitewash. In fact, after
the summit Mugabe was emboldened enough to tell the world to "go
hang".
Charan Muzaya, London, UK
SABC
April 11, 2008,
17:00
David Dlamini, Gaborone
Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai says he will definitely be at
this weekend’s Southern African
Development Community (SADC) emergency
summit in Lusaka,
Zambia.
Tsvangirai, who is currently in Botswana, has confirmed that he
will be
attending tomorrow's emergency meeting of the SADC heads of state.
Tsvangarai says he will also make a presentation to the summit about, what
he terms, the dire situation in Zimbabwe, which has made him “a prime
security target in his country.”
Tomorrow's emergency summit in
Lusaka is seen as a make or break for the
Zimbabwean election stand-off.
Thirteen days after the election, Zimbabwean
citizens still don't know who
won the presidential election.
Tsvangarai arrived in Botswana on
Wednesday, fuelling speculation that he
sought temporary political refuge.
He hopes the summit will make it possible
for him to return to Zimbabwe. But
the MDC leader ruled out any possibility
of a presidential run-off, instead
putting his faith in SADC.
Analysts believe the SADC summit will call for
the release of election
results to avoid further tensions. The summit is
seen as a first concrete
response by African leaders to avoid a fall-out.
Despite some differences,
there is general agreement that failure to defuse
the situation will affect
the entire southern African region.
Sydney Morning Herald
Mark Metherell
April 12, 2008
THE Zimbabwean farming
leader Trevor Gifford speaks calmly in
his clipped accent of assaults on the
dwindling band of whites clinging to
their farms.
An elderly farmer
has disappeared in the Chipinge district, he says. The
farmer's vehicle was
halted by the roving bands of "war vets".
"His tyres were punctured. He
was taken from the car. He has been abducted,"
Mr Gifford said on Thursday
night.
A search by local farmers, white and black, had so far failed to
locate the
man, who is in his 70s.
"Last night another farmer [was]
forcibly evicted by a war vet who has been
living on his land since the
invasions of 2000." The invader and others had
slaughtered the farmer's
pedigree bull for meat and taken 340 litres of
diesel.
The night
before, a mob had invaded a farmhouse in Mashonaland, north-west
of the
capital, Harare, and "totally trashed and looted" the place.
Mr Gifford
estimates 60 farmers have been evicted and 100 have been affected
by the
surge in land occupations triggered by the apparent election defeat
of Robert
Mugabe.
Another farming couple emailed friends last Sunday to report that
"a
lorryload of war vets arrived at our gate to take over our land,
equipment
and cattle. It is now 6pm and they have been singing their war
songs at our
gate and more and more of them have arrived".
When the
Herald called the property on Thursday, the farmer, speaking in
hushed tones,
said things were "tense" and pleaded not to be identified.
After years of
home invasions, evictions and killings, a dwindling band of
white farmers
hang on in Zimbabwe. When Mr Gifford is asked why they stay,
he says: "It is
very simple. For a large majority of us we have been here
several
generations. We are not British, or American or Australians … We are
African,
we are Zimbabweans. This is our home. We believe we have the same
rights as
other Zimbabweans."
Mr Gifford, the president of the Commercial Farmers
Union, says the mobs of
farm invaders, wearing ZANU-PF T-shirts, will
typically gather outside
target farms chanting slogans including: "Down with
Britain, down with
America, down with whites."
ZANU-PF is the party of
Mr Mugabe's ruling regime, which in 28 years since
the overthrow of
white-dominated government has presided over the
accelerating decline of what
was once the meat and maize bowl of southern
Africa.
Now Zimbabwe
produces about 300,000 tonnes out of the 1.8 million of maize
it needs to
feed its own people, Mr Gifford said, and the number of
commercial farmers
has dropped from 4600 in 2000, when farm invasions began
in earnest, to
500.
David Dorward, of La Trobe University in Melbourne, has analysed
Africa's
upheavals for 50 years and says land occupation has stirred unrest
in
Zimbabwe since the early colonial days of the 1890s, when the British
rulers
began doling out to white settlers huge slabs of the most fertile
land.
Dr Dorward says the "war vets", men from the towns who are too
young to have
fought in the 1970s civil war, are being orchestrated by the
Mugabe regime
in a bid to intimidate the Opposition party, the Movement for
Democratic
Change.
We’ve just had word that 27 busloads of Zanu PF supporters are in Victoria Falls preparing to go through the border into Zambia before tomorrow’s emergency meeting.
You know what this means… images of hundreds of ‘adoring fans’ adorning TV screens everywhere, convincing some African nations that Mugabe is loved.
No one knows these people will have had their bus fare paid for and all their food covered as well and a nice new shiny Mugabe T-shirt to go with. They aren’t on the ‘gravy-train’; they’re on the ‘gravy-bus’.
The opposition leader, Robert Mugabe, has a long history of using taxpayers’ money to prop up his regime. His election rallies and his birthday parties show seas of ‘happy’ faces, but the crowds are all swelled out by school children, vendors and anyone else who can be bribed or bludgeoned into attending.
He had a bit of a problem during his campaign leading up to the March 29th elections because people refused to attend, so at least five rallies were cancelled. I saw one news article at the time which really made me laugh: it reported that school holidays had been a major problem for him, because he couldn’t round up school-kids to swell the crowd.
No doubt these 27 busloads are off for a long weekend of shouting and screaming in support of Robert Mugabe, all paid for by the taxpayer. One long fun great weekend away - but with a potential cost for years afterwards.
I was also told that they had asked Bulawayo police to provide them with protection up to Victoria Falls (the drive to Vic Falls is through Matabeleland - Mugabe is at his least popular in this region). The police apparently refused: said they had no fuel or transport but I like to think that’s a polite way to say ’shove off’.
It’s going to be a long nerve-wracking weekend.
Please send those emails and work hard to get others to do the same. Thank you so much everyone, for your words of support and efforts to try and help.
Please click here to visit our action alert. Please take action.
Financial Times
By Alec Russell in
Johannesburg
Published: April 11 2008 15:18 | Last updated: April 11 2008
18:25
President Robert Mugabe on Friday night abruptly bowed out of
Saturday’s
regional summit on Zimbabwe’s crisis amid mounting pressure from
his
neighbours to release last month’s election results.
His decision
to snub the summit of southern African leaders, which he has
traditionally
liked to dominate, was the first public sign of weakness by
the 84-year-old
autocrat since the elections two weeks ago.
It came as the security
forces intensified a week-old crackdown, banning
political rallies “with
immediate effect”.
Leaders of the 14-nation Southern African Development
Community are
expected to push for the release of the presidential results
but to steer
clear of putting concerted pressure on Mr Mugabe, still less
backing
opposition demands for him to step down.
Last night, 13 days
after the polls closed, the state-appointed Zimbabwe
Election Commission had
still not released the results, even as state-backed
militias continued to
intimidate supporters of the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change in an
apparent attempt to scare them from voting in a
possible
run-off.
Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, is attending the meeting in
the Zambian
capital Lusaka. Mr Mugabe had also been planning to attend but
last night
the government backtracked.
Mr Mugabe’s decision is a boon
for Mr Tsvangirai as it will allow him to
make his case to the region’s
leaders out of the shadow of the old
liberation leader who has routinely
held his peers in his thrall at such
meetings.
MDC officials
speculated the boycott might reflect a concern in Mr Mugabe’s
inner circle
over the loyalties of some of his generals, but analysts
suggested he more
probably realised that he faced uncomfortable criticism
from the region,
possibly for the first time.
The MDC raised the stakes ahead of the
summit saying it would not take part
in a presidential run-off. It was not
clear if this was merely a negotiating
tactic but Mr Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party,
which has ruled since independence in
1980, seized on the announcement and
said it was preparing to take part in a
second round.
The MDC says
that Mr Tsvangirai won an outright victory in the March 29
presidential
election, but independent projections suggest that he may have
just fallen
short of the clear majority he needed to avoid a second round.
Human
Rights Watch, the US human rights group, said that Saturday’s meeting
was
SADC’s “last real chance” to resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe.
The
government of South Africa, the region’s dominant power, which has long
believed in “quiet diplomacy” and not challenging Mr Mugabe in public, has
in the past 24 hours adopted a more robust stance and called for the release
of the results.
President Thabo Mbeki, who less than a week ago
infuriated the MDC by
describing the situation as “manageable”, met Mr
Tsvangirai to discuss the
crisis on Thursday on the latest stop on the MDC
leader’s tour of regional
capitals.
Mr Mbeki has faced calls this
week from his own party, the ruling African
National Congress, to take a
tougher line towards Mr Mugabe.
Jacob Zuma, Mr Mbeki’s bitter political
rival, who ousted the president as
head of the ANC last December, called
earlier in the week for the release of
the results.
South African
officials are touting the idea of a government of national
unity as a
compromise solution, with Mr Mugabe staying on for about a year,
but the MDC
dismisses the idea of agreeing to an extension of the president’s
rule.
New York Times
By CELIA
W. DUGGER and GRAHAM BOWLEY
Published: April 12, 2008
JOHANNESBURG —
Zimbabwe’s authorities have arrested the lawyer for the
opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai, the main opposition party said Friday,
intensifying the
nation’s political crisis as reports emerged that the
government had banned
all political rallies in Harare, the capital.
The opposition has accused
the government of conducting an increasingly
aggressive crackdown on
dissent, saying Friday that as many as 1,000 people
across the country had
been assaulted or arrested since the disputed
elections of March
29.
"In the rural areas, they are terrorizing people and arresting them
without
charges,” said Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for the main opposition
party,
known as the Movement for Democratic Change.
“It’s on a
massive scale,” he said, particularly in areas where President
Robert Mugabe
did not do well in the elections. "They’re almost turning
those into war
zones."
The scale of the crackdown could not be independently verified,
but Amnesty
International reported Thursday that it had “information about
widespread
incidents of postelection violence, suggesting the existence of
coordinated
retribution against known and suspected opposition
supporters.”
Beyond that, Zimbabwean state radio said Friday that the
police had banned
all political rallies in the wake of the country’s
political stalemate, news
agencies reported. The Zimbabwean police accused
the opposition of "spoiling
for a fight" by deploying hundreds of youth
members across the country, and
banned a Movement for Democratic Change
rally planned for Sunday, Reuters
reported.
Mr. Tsvangirai’s lawyer,
Innocent Chagonda, was held by the police after
authorities seized a
helicopter that was meant to ferry Mr. Tsvangirai, a
presidential candidate,
around during the elections, said Nqobizitha Mlilo,
another opposition
spokesman. The South African pilot was arrested, Mr.
Mlilo said, but has
since been released.
“The police have not released details, except for
saying that he insulted
them during the negotiations for the helicopter,”
Mr. Mlilo said.
With the results of last month’s presidential election
still being withheld
by the government, Mr. Tsvangirai has begun a round of
international
diplomacy in advance of a weekend meeting of southern Africa’s
heads of
state to address Zimbabwe’s political crisis.
Mr. Mlilo
confirmed that Mr. Tsvangirai had held talks on Thursday with the
South
African president, Thabo Mbeki, as he sought international help to
persuade
Mr. Mugabe to step aside after 28 years in power.
Mr. Tsvangirai claims
to have won last month’s election outright, but Mr.
Mugabe’s party has
demanded a recount of the vote, even though no official
results have yet
been released.
Mr. Mlilo, the opposition spokesman, said Mr. Mbeki and
Mr. Tsvangirai spoke
“broadly and in depth on the various issues” during
their meeting.
Until now, Mr. Mbeki had refused to meet with Mr.
Tsvangirai, but his
influence is believed to be strong with Mr. Mugabe, and
he could be an
important broker in the dispute.
Still, it is unclear
whether Zimbabwe’s neighbors — many of them with
political or fraternal
bonds with Mr. Mugabe, a hero of Zimbabwe’s
liberation struggle against
white rule — can or will do much to defuse the
tense standoff.
It was
not even clear whether Mr. Mugabe would attend. Tomaz Salomao,
executive
secretary of the Southern African Development Community, which is
arranging
the gathering, said he could not confirm whether Mr. Mugabe would
go to
Lusaka, Zambia, where the meeting is being held. "At this time, I don’t
know," he said.
On Thursday, the opposition party, the Movement for
Democratic Change,
decided that Mr. Tsvangirai would not take part in a
runoff vote because it
had determined he had won the disputed election
outright.
After waiting almost two weeks for an official announcement of
the outcome
of Zimbabwe’s presidential election, Tendai Biti, the
opposition’s secretary
general, accused the governing party, led by Mr.
Mugabe, of carrying out “a
constitutional coup d’état.”
Independent
monitors say Mr. Tsvangirai won the vote, though probably not by
enough to
avoid a runoff.
Celia W. Dugger reported from Johannesburg, and Graham
Bowley from New York
The Australian
Peter
Oborne | April 12, 2008
ON the night after Zimbabwe's presidential
elections 14 days ago, a British
diplomat, Philip Barclay, witnessed the
count at the little outpost of
Bikisa deep in rural Masvingo.
This
part of the country is the heartland of Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe
African
National Union-Patriotic Front. In the five presidential elections
since
independence in 1981 the people of Bikisa voted solidly for Mugabe and
there
was little expectation of anything different this time.
Barclay reports
feeling faint with amazement when it became clear that the
largest pile of
votes was for Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition
Movement for
Democratic Change. Just 44 people in Bikisa voted for Mugabe,
against an
overwhelming 167 for Tsvangirai.
Reports from other areas soon made it
clear that Bikisa was not exceptional
and that Mugabe had been voted out of
power in a political earthquake. By
late in the afternoon on March 30, the
day after the election, the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission, an independent
body charged with overseeing the poll,
was in a position to make a cautious
estimate of the result. It judged that
Tsvangirai had secured almost 60 per
cent of the vote, more than double that
of Mugabe with 27 per
cent.
Sources say that when this news was brought to the President his
first
reaction was genuine incredulity. He is so out of touch, and so used
to
winning elections, that he had felt confident of a comfortable
majority.
Incredulity swiftly turned to anger and Mugabe grimly ordered
the Electoral
Commission to declare him the victor. This command was
resisted by very
brave election officials. They received unexpected support,
however, from
senior personnel within the Zimbabwe state security apparatus,
fearful of
the public order consequences that would certainly flow from such
blatant
fixing of the result.
At this stage South Africa's President
Thabo Mbeki tried to solve the
problem. Reportedly Mbeki also wished the
result to be rigged, though not as
blatantly as Mugabe. He seems to have
proposed that the Electoral Commission
should sharply downgrade Tsvangirai's
share of the vote, sharply upgrade
Mugabe to a more respectable 40 per cent
and dramatically increase the share
of the vote enjoyed by renegade ZANU-PF
presidential candidate Simba Makoni.
Makoni is Mbeki's choice as the next
president of Zimbabwe. There is some
evidence that he is also supported by
the US State Department. A highly
intelligent and well-educated man, Makoni
was a member of Mugabe's inner
circle for many years, while maintaining warm
links to foreign observers and
exercising care to evade personal
responsibility for the worst of the
regime's atrocities.
He stood for
the presidency only after being given the green light by Mbeki
earlier this
year. Unlike Tsvangirai, a former miner of incredible courage
but with
little formal education, Makoni is the kind of politician who
appeals
profoundly to the bureaucratic mind. Mbeki, quietly backed by the
US, hoped
to induce Mugabe to step down and get Makoni to stand in his
stead. This
plan had definite logic. Makoni, though he will never be
forgiven by Mugabe
for what the President sees as an act of unspeakable
betrayal, retains the
strongest links with ZANU-PF. This means he would
probably be acceptable to
the senior generals and police who hold the key to
Zimbabwe's immediate
future and to whom Tsvangirai's MDC is repugnant.
By the start of this
week it was beginning to be clear that the Makoni
wheeze was not going to
fly. The trouble is that - like many politicians
beloved of the official
class - Mbeki's protege lacks mass support. The
failure of the South African
intervention means a stalemate in Zimbabwe.
Basically, Mugabe has only three
options and time is running out.
The first of these is to mount a coup
d'etat, the solution that is preferred
by Mugabe's inner circle.
Significantly, it seems to be favoured by
Constantine Chiwenga,
commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and by air
force chief Perence
Shiri, Mugabe's relative and close ally.
It must be borne in mind that
senior figures such as these do not merely
stand to lose power if Mugabe
wins. They also face the prospect of being
brought to justice for the crimes
of the Mugabe regime. It was Shiri, for
instance, who led the North
Korean-trained Fifth Brigades in the
Matabeleland genocide of the early
1980s.
The problem with the idea of a coup d'etat is not really the
international
condemnation that would inevitably result. The Southern
African Development
Community might not like it, but under the prostrate
guidance of Mbeki it
would never lift a finger.
The true problem is
different: there are reasons to doubt whether commanders
such as Shiri
(whose Chinese MiG fighters were buzzing low over Bulawayo in
an act of
naked intimidation when I was there two weeks ago) have the
support of their
troops. There is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that
ordinary soldiers and
police officers, even some members of the feared
Central Intelligence
Organisation, have turned against Mugabe. Director of
intelligence Happyton
Bonyongwe is said to be quietly supporting Tsvangirai.
Mugabe's second
option is to declare the recent elections null and order a
rerun. There is
strong evidence that the President is preparing the way for
this.
He
is already taking revenge, for example, on the hapless Electoral
Commission,
several of whose members have been arrested during the past few
days. In a
marvellous irony, they are being accused of rigging the result
against
ZANU-PF.
If the President calls a second election, it will be marked by
all
theintimidation and horror that toacertain was extent lacking on March
29.
Mugabe's Green Bombers, his licensed torturers and murderers who bear
close
comparison to Adolf Hitler's Brownshirts, are already off the
leash.
Finally, Mugabe could stand down. Here one key ingredient would be
a
guarantee that he - and the scores of murderers and torturers who are
linked
to him - can live the rest of their lives in the peace and
tranquillity they
have denied so many others. Granting Mugabe immunity from
prosecution is
hard to engineer and would be unpalatable for some. Others
may judge it well
worthwhile.
Meanwhile, everyone waits for the old
man's next move.
I am told by a friend who runs one of Zimbabwe's few
remaining factories
that the mood among the workforce has changed sharply
during the past few
days. Hope turned to bemusement; then, on Tuesday
morning, to a silent,
pervasive sense of terror, as if something horrible
might be just about to
happen.
The Spectator
Friday, 11 April 2008 20:34
UK
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