If Zimbabwe's regime had wanted to maximise public suspicion surrounding the elections, it could scarcely have worked more effectively today. First, there were no results for about 36 hours after polls closed on Saturday. Then the first declarations trickled in this morning.
But they were not for the crucial battle for the presidency between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. Instead, the Electoral Commission chose to concentrate on the election for the lower house of parliament. At 6am, it was revealed that the MDC and Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF party had won three seats each. Five hours later, Zimbabwe learned that the two parties had won another nine seats each. By 4pm, they were level pegging with 19
seats each.
When another tranche of results were disclosed at 7pm, Zimbabweans learned that the two parties were apparently still neck-and-neck with 26 seats each. No hard conclusions can be drawn from these announcements, save that no random declaration of results as and when they became ready could explain them. The Electoral Commission was clearly working to a plan. Experience from previous polls suggests that the results will be disclosed in a careful order to give the appearance of a genuinely tight contest, before Zanu-PF gradually noses ahead. In a café in central Harare today, a businessman listened to the results on his mobile phone, relaying them to rapt customers and staff. Beside him, a colleague greeted every opposition victory by grinning broadly and waving her hand in the open-palmed salute of the MDC. Some of those listeners suspected that the neck-and-neck tally was a bid to give the impression of a close race as a prelude to announcing a narrow victory for Mr Mugabe.
The businessman, though, clung to an optimistic outlook. |
Zim Online
Monday 31 March
2008
RESULTS AT A GLANCE:
ZANU PF
31
MDC (Tsv) 30
MDC (Mut)
4
Indep
-
__________________________________________________________________
HARARE
- Latest Zimbabwe election results as at 6.15pm Monday.
Bulilima
West
MDC (Mut) 3996
ZANU PF
3359
MDC (Tsv) 1658
Harare West
MDC
(Tsv) 7938
ZANU PF 1605
MDC
(Mut) 1079
Indep
366
Beitbridge East
ZANU PF 4741
MDC
(Mut) 2194
MDC (Tsv) 1101
Gutu
South
MDC (Tsv) 5757
ZANU PF
3359
MDC (Mut)
1570
Indep 334
Chiredzi
South
ZANU PF 5147
MDC (Tsv)
2205
MDC (Mut) 1271
Mangwe
MDC
(Mut) 3928
ZANU PF 2627
MDC
(Tsv) 2294
ST Mary’s
MDC (Tsv)
6508
ZANU PF 2464
MDC (Mut)
1183
UPP
171
ZDP
39
ZPPDP 25
Mudzi West
ZANU
PF 9407
MDC (Tsv) 2408
MDC
(Mut) 953
UPP
163
Insiza South
MDC (Mut) 5252
ZANU
PF 4006
MDC (Tsv)
890
PHUMA 171
Harare North
MDC
(Tsv) 6710
ZANU PF
3135
Indep
441
UPP 226
Hurungwe
Central
ZANU PF 4997
MDC (Tsv)
1399
MDC (Mut) 494
Gwanda Central
MDC
(Mut) 4323
ZANU PF 3340
MDC
(Tsv) 1354
Indep
657
PHUMA
94
Indep 85
BIKITA WEST
MDC
(Tsv) 7048
ZANU PF
7029
RUSHINGA
ZANU PF 14 264
MDC
(Tsv) 3772
UPP
578
Mazowe North
ZANU PF 5466
MDC
(Tsv) 2508
MDC (Mut)
717
Indep 363
Luveve
MDC
(Tsv) 3325
MDC (Mut) 3178
ZANU
PF 940
Indep
697
FDU 146
Masvingo
ZANU
PF 4799
MDC T
4450
IND
760
UPP 333
Bulilima
East
MDC (Mut) 3180
ZANU PF
3104
MDC (Tsv) 2181
MT Darwin West
ZANU
PF 18236
MDC (Tsv) 1792
MDC
(Mut) 887
Bulawayo East
MDC
(Tsv) 3587
MDC (Mut) 2525
ZANU
PF 1031
Indep
471
FDU
147
Indep
114
UPP 80
MT Darwin
South
ZANU PF 9105
MDC T
2698
Indep 380
UPP
115
Bulawayo Central
MDC (Tsv) 3786
MDC
(Mut) 3553
ZANU PF
908
Indep 191
PHUMA
162
FDU 74
Indep
63
Shamva North
ZANU PF 10385
MDC
(Tsv) 1354
MDC (Tsv)
1173
Indep
526
UPP 105
Goromonzi South
MDC
(Tsv) 6456
ZANU PF 5305
MDC
(Mut) 1341
Indep
395
1ndep 149
Chegutu East
ZANU
PF 9222
MDC (Tsv) 2724
MDC
(Mut) 1218
Mufakose
MDC (Tsv)
5731
ZANU PF 1252
MDC (Mut)
696
Hurungwe East
ZANU PF 9465
MDC
T 1573
Murehwa West
MDC (Tsv)
7334
ZANU PF 6313
Mhangura
ZANU
PF 11 042
MDC
1647
MDC 716
Kadoma
Central
MDC (Tsv) 8 180
ZANU
PF 2 738
Zvimba West
ZANU
PF 7 281
MDC 3
801
Chitungwiza North
MDC
(Tsv) 7 539
ZANU PF 2
073
MDC (Mut)
734
UPP 47
Zvimba
East
ZANU PF 5 197
MDC
(Ts) 3 554
Zaka West
MDC
(Tsv) 4734
ZANU PF 4
030
PAFA
347
Indep 307
Mudzi
South
ZANU PF 8 202
MDC
(Tsv) 2 735
MDC (Mut) 1
370
UPP 180
Mazowe
Central
MDC (Tsv) 5 573
ZANU
PF (Chimutengwende) 4 136
UPP
119
ZPDP
79
Maramba-Pfungwe
ZANU
PF 14 916
MDC (Tsv)
1 947
Indep
46
Kuwadzana
MDC (Matibenga) 8
763
ZANU PF 2
048
UPP
198
ZDP 58
Goromonzi
North
ZANU PF 5 626
MDC
(Tsv) 4 845
Zaka Central
MDC
(Tsv) 5 972
ZANU PF 4
974
MDC (Mut) 1
255
Indep 289
Gutu West
ZANU
PF 5 054
MDC (Tsv) 4
082
ZANU PF 2 384
Masvingo
Central
MDC (Tsv) 4 905
ZANU
PF 4
793
Indep
327
ZDP
293
UPP
250
**************************************************
Southerton
MDC
(Tsv) 6092
ZANU PF 1 334
MDC
(Mut) 900
UPP
99
Murehwa North
ZANU PF 7 104
MDC
(Tsv) 6 468
Mabvuku-Tafara
MDC
(Tsv) 7 677
ZANU PF 1
901
Indep
543
Indep
261
UPP 93
Mutoko South
ZANU
PF 10 795
MDC (Tsv) 2 897
MDC
(Mut) 762
UPP
200
Highfield West
MDC (Tsv) 7 532
ZANU
PF 1 328
MDC (Mut)
907
ZPPDP 74
Murehwa South
ZANU
PF 9 032
MDC (Tsv) 3
410
UPP 287
Kuwadzana East
MDC
(Tsv) 8 381
ZANU PF 1
388
Indep 150
UPP
85
Masvingo South
ZANU PF 6
365
MDC 3
707
Indep 500
Mt Pleasant
MDC
(Tsv) 3 875
ZANU PF 1 738
MDC
(Mut) 1 426
ZCDP
152
Harare South
ZANU PF 7 111
MDC
(Tsv) 4 389
MDC (Mut)
819
Sunningdale
MDC (Tsv) 7 071
ZANU
PF 980
MDC (Mut) 834
ZANU
PF 634
UPP
87
VP 63
Hwedza North
ZANU
PF 6 267
MDC (Tsv) 3 586
Makoni
Central
MDC (Tsv) 7 060
ZANU PF
4 055
Indep 1 305
Uzumba
ZANU
PF 13 396
MDC (Tsv) 2 156
MDC
(Mut) 814
Hatfield
MDC (Tsv) 9
575
ZANU PF 1 450
Indep
589
ZDP
54
Indep 0
Marondera
East
ZANU PF 6 514
MDC
(Tsv) 2 268
MDC (Mut)
788
Indep 201
Chipinge
East
MDC (Tsv) 7 038
ZANU
PF 4 131
Marondera West
ZANU
PF 4 284
MDC (Tsv) 2
132
Indep 1520
Chegutu
West
MDC Tsv 6772
ZANU PF 3
713
MDC – Mut 750
Goromonzi
West
MDC Tsv 5 931
ZANU PF 6
193
Mutoko North
ZANU PF 6 922
MDC
Tsv 3163
Indep 3023
MDC Tsv
1065
Mutasa South
MDC Tsv 8
207
ZANU PF 3 409
Indep
412
Mutare Central
MDC Tsv 7
284
ZANU PF 2 322
MDC Mut
639
Indep 117
ZPPDP
21
Chipinge Central
ZANU PF 6
377
MDC Tsv 5 862
Zimbabwe Today
New official results
show Tsvangirai and Mugabe level - so why is Mugabe
making plans to
leave?
Harare, Zimbabwe, Monday, March 31, 11.30 am
Latest
official voting figures for the House of Assembly reveal another 18
results,
with the MDC and Zanu-PF now level pegging with 12 seats each.
These
so-called results conflict with the MDC's own figures, which
consistently
show the Tsvangirai faction leading by a large margin.
Sources tell me
that so far the constituency seats are in truth shared out
as follows: the
MDC with 61 per cent, Zanu-PF with 26 per cent, and others
at 13 per
cent.
Of particular interest is the race for the Presidency itself,
between
Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni. My information is that
Tsvangirai is
leading with 58 per cent of the vote counted so far, with
Mugabe on 37 per
cent and Makoni with a disappointing five per
cent.
All these figures, however, mean nothing, because they and those to
come are
in the hands of the two expert poll rig-masters, who have
undertaken the job
of swapping the figures around to give Zanu-PF and Mugabe
a totally false
victory.
The two gentlemen in question are
Registrar-General Tobaiwa Mudede and
Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba.
Already they have reversed a number
of results in Masvingo and Mashonaland
West, where the MDC claim they
recorded a clean sweep.
But all is not
lost. And the Electoral Commission may yet hang back from
announcing a
blatantly fixed set of results. Because Mugabe's
much-relied-upon military
and judicial support is beginning to look a little
shaky.
The Joint
Operating Command (JOC) - a security unit chaired by Mugabe and
comprising
the country's service chiefs - met at five this morning, and last
I heard
was still in session. And what his generals, etc., have had to say
has
shocked Mugabe.
It has been put to him that if his defeat at the polls is
simply reversed,
and called a victory, there will be a very real chance of
violence at or
above the scale seen in Kenya at the beginning of the
year.
My source says that he was told there was no guarantee that the
armed
services could keep down a violent rebellion. In recent years the
forces had
been weakened by resignations and desertions, and many who still
remain are
not zealous Zanu-PF supporters.
This shock for Mugabe came
on top of another blow. Some days ago I
exclusively revealed on this site
his plan to halt the election, if it went
badly, by getting the Supreme
Court to uphold two appeals concerning
disqualified candidates.
The
plan fell in ruins at Mugabe's feet when the Chief Justice, Godfrey
Chidyausiku, having previously agreed to co-operate, changed his mind and
refused to be pressured to give the judgement Mugabe wanted. Chidyausiku is
believed to have sided with Simba Makoni and the Mutambara faction of the
MDC.
During this morning an alternative, even outlandish plan for
Mugabe's future
has been discussed. It would involve an army coup, staged by
Zimbabwe
Defence Forces Chief General Constantine Chiwenga, shortly before
final
results of the election are due to be announced.
The Army would
rule for six months, calling new elections for September, and
allowing
Mugabe to slip safely away to Malaysia where he has huge business
interests.
Thus the old man would avoid being arrested and put on trial by
any new
government.
My source within the JOC told me that if this happens, the
army will appear
impartial and professional, it will agree that the election
was rigged by
Zanu-PF, and everyone will believe that it is in favour of
true democracy..
More developments and "results" as they happen. Keep
checking in.
Posted on Monday, 31 March 2008 at 10:37
Washington Post
By Craig Timberg
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday,
March 31, 2008; 2:57 PM
HARARE, Zimbabwe, March 31 -- Zimbabwe's largest
group of independent
election observers reported Monday that President
Robert Mugabe lost
Saturday's national vote to longtime opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai.
The margin does not appear to have been wide enough to
avoid a runoff, which
occurs automatically if no candidate gets more than 50
percent, according to
the findings of the group, the Zimbabwe Election
Support Network.
The report carries no force of law, but amid
long-standing claims of rigging
by the official electoral commission, the
announcement by the respected
observer group has been eagerly anticipated.
The group's analysis bolstered
repeated claims from Tsvangirai's opposition
party that it has defeated
Mugabe, who predicted victory for himself and his
party.
Based on a statistical model relying on publicly posted results at
435 of
the nation's 9,000 polling stations, the observer group calculated
that
Tsvangirai won 49.4 percent of the vote, with a margin of error of 2.4
percent. Mugabe got 42 percent, and independent Simba Makoni 8 percent, the
group found.
Official results, meanwhile, have trickled in far more
slowly than in
previous elections, heightening fears that the results are
being
manipulated. No presidential votes have been announced by the
electoral
commission, even though thousands of individual polling stations
have hung
their tallies in public view across the country.
The 52
official race results released so far, all for parliamentary seats,
have
been evenly split between the ruling party and the opposition. There
were
210 parliamentary constituencies contested in Saturday's vote.
In the
presidential contest, evidence has been mounting for several days
that
Tsvangirai had surged decisively past Mugabe amid rising frustration at
the
world's worst hyperinflation, 80 percent unemployment and debilitating
shortages of food, medicine, soap, fuel and most other basics of Zimbabwean
life.
Vote totals tabulated by Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic
Change show
him winning 58 percent of the vote, compared with 37 percent for
Mugabe and
the rest for Makoni, party officials said. Party officials did
not release a
comprehensive spreadsheet of polling station or images of the
individual
tally sheets to verify their claims.
Under Zimbabwe's
election rules, a candidate for president must get more
than 50 percent of
the vote. If no candidate reaches that level in the
results of the Saturday
election, voters will be asked to choose between the
top two, probably on
April 19.
A loss for Mugabe, 84, and his Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic
Front party would end the domination of this beleaguered
southern African
nation by a ruling group whose membership has changed
little since taking
control in 1980, after the end of the white supremacist
rule in the former
British colony of Rhodesia.
Global Politician
Guy White - 3/31/2008
The MDC victory in Zimbabwe is
massive. Those on the ground report victories
of almost 2-1 in Robert
Mugabe-favored areas and anywhere between 10-1 to
30-1 in Matabeleland and
other regions that are favorable to Morgan
Tsvangirai.
Tsvangirai, of
the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), won at least 70% of
the vote and
another 5-10% went to Simba Makoni, a former Mugabe ally who
left the
government to run against Mugabe sensing which way the winds are
blowing.
Mugabe expected to lose, but his cronies led him to believe
his situation is
not as precarious as it really is. The President figured
that he can “fix”
the elections by a margin of 5-10% just as he did in
2002.
But inflation went up from 3 digits to 6-digits in the last 5
years, and now
80% of the population has to survive on $1 a day or less.
Other than
government employees, soldiers and those with close connections
to corrupt
politicians, everyone else is starving. The result is that the
anti-Mugabe
vote is nearly uniform.
About half a year ago CNN
reported that it is now common for people to catch
and eat rats. Zimbabwean
Ambassador charged back that rats are a delicacy in
his country - though
videos showed desperate people starving, not feasting
on a tasty
delicacy.
When Zimbabwe was white-run Rhodesia, it was - despite
sanctions from every
country except South Africa - the bread-basket of
Africa. Now, it’s just a
basket-case. As recently as the late 1990s,
Zimbabwe was one of the more
successful countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
Mugabe and the Left, however,
believed it’s not fair that white people have
a disproportionate amount of
farmland and profits.
Mugabe initiated
reforms to confiscate and transfer farms and other
white-owned property to
blacks. The result was a complete collapse of
Zimbabwean farming and of the
economy in general.
Whites were not robbing Zimbabwe, they were keeping
it afloat.
Mugabe reacted by claiming that reforms didn’t go far enough
and pushed for
more confiscations and physical assaults, both by the police
and by the
youth gangs who called themselves “war patriots”, explaining that
the reason
the economy is collapsing is due to white people fighting back to
prevent
re-distribution.
In 2007, inflation was 100,000%. In 2008, it
is estimated to be about
400,000. These numbers are unreal in that they no
longer matter - regardless
how much money you may have had 10 years ago, you
are penniless today.
The Zimbabwean dollar - worth more than the American
dollar when blacks took
over in 1980 - has been devalued several thousand
times in the last half a
dozen years. Even if you had an equivalent of a
million US dollars in 2000,
today it is is worth no more than a few hundred
US dollars.
Blacks blame Mugabe for mismanagement, but they will never
give the farm
land to the productive farmers who actually produced food on
it because race
is the end all, be all for blacks.
Mugabe is
presently sitting in his quarters with his henchmen trying to find
a way to
stay in power. This is a man who murdered tens of thousands of
Ndebele
people (a minority tribe that is opposed to Mugabe’s Shona tribe),
and other
opposition. The gap between real results and victory may be too
big to fix.
He may try to share power. He may try to just declare victory
and back his
declaration with military power, though soldiers have shown
some
independence recently and may not want to maul down their own relatives
just
to keep Mugabe from facing murder and genocide charges in criminal
court.
Mugabe knows that if he leaves the President’s quarters in
anything but a
coffin, he’s likely to spend his finals days in prison, so
he’ll do anything
possible to stay in power. Whether anything is really
possible remains a
question.
MDC is a more moderate party right now
because they are trying to get
Western support and later Western aid if they
come to power. Their “brain”
is really Roy Bennett, a white man. But Bennett
is mistaken if he thinks the
treatment of whites will improve if MDC comes
to power. MDC may not force
confiscations, but neither will Mugabe anymore -
just about everything was
already taken from whites. Tsvangirai will not
return anything to whites.
And eventually, he’ll double-cross “the white
devil” Roy Bennett.
The few remaining whites should just leave Zimbabwe.
As for blacks, life
will probably improve somewhat under MDC with the influx
of foreign aid, but
it will never be as good as during the “old days”.
Zimbabwe is now Africa,
totally Africa.
Guy White writes on
issues of race. He can be reached at
guywhiteusa@yahoo.com. Visit his blog at
http://guywhite.wordpress.com
Official results from Zimbabwe's general election are trickling in amid speculation about vote-rigging.
Voters from across the country have been sending the BBC their experiences and observations after the elections.
Are you in Zimbabwe? Send us your experiences by text on +44 7786 20 50 85 or use the form below - and let us know if you do not want your full name to be published.
17.44 GMT, Harare: Louie has sent us this account: "Police have already been deployed on the streets in Harare and are telling people not to assemble, to keep quiet. I have never been this afraid before."
17.31 GMT, Chiredzi: Picket e-mailed us to voice his concern "after voting on Saturday the counting process started immediately and was finished by about 2200hrs. At about 0300hrs all results from the constituency were collated at the command centre. By early morning we knew who was going to represent us in parliament. But to my surprise the results for Chiredzi West have so far not been announced. One can only wonder as to what is taking place."
16.53 GMT, Harare:Vusumuzi e-mailed to say "after having rejoiced that the regime is going down we're now hearing that they've actually won. We heard that Mai Mujuru had lost the Mount Darwin seat but the results show that she has won instead. We no longer know who to trust. Just the thought of going back to Mugabe's rule is so depressing."
16.46 GMT, Zimbabwe: Clemence contacted us with his concern over vote rigging "the voting was fine in my constituency and the MDC won with a very big margin. Now to my surprise what I am hearing on TV and Radio is totally different. I believe they are just starting to rig the vote."
16.42 GMT, Harare: N. Dzimbabwe e-mailed to express his hope for the country "If ZANU is/was rigging the vote then Chen Chimutengwende would not have lost. I understand the MDC's disappointment that the landslide victory they promised is not happening. This seems to be a tight race and I'm glad that no one party will have absolute majority. The future of my country looks much brighter than it was before the elections."
15:53 GMT, Harare: James e-mailed to say he believes Mugabe is up to his old tricks again. "Mugabe wants to announce the results at night so that any dissension is quelled by the soldiers he is deploying in the volatile urban areas. There is no way that he can win with the present state of the country."
15:32 GMT, Harare: Rainman e-mails us to say voting was generally peaceful and free. "People talked freely - even in the voting queues - of their discontent at Mugabe rule. They openly said they would vote for change and if it didn't come it would have been stolen from them."
15:26 GMT Glen View, Harare: Anderson told the BBC that there was clear evidence in his constituency of intimidation by police and soldiers. "There was a heavy police presence at polling stations. Conversation was not allowed among voters, cell phones had to be switched off. The whole atmosphere was tense. If this was the psychological warfare in an urban area, I can only imagine what it was like in rural ones."
15:08 GMT, Gweru: Zvenyika reports via e-mail that in remote districts of Zimbabwe there are no road networks and the Zimbabwe electoral commission has to rely on tractors to get around. The logistical challenges means it is unrealistic to "expect the ZEC to collate, verify the results and publishing them any faster than they are doing without compromising the validity of the entire election system," he says. "Throughout the voting exercise, I did not once see or hear about any international election observer or accredited journalist visiting any of the remote polling stations."
15:07 GMT, Gweru: Mabasa, a Zanu-PF supporter e-mails in to say that he witnessed a "free" election characterised by "peace and tranquillity". He told the BBC that he was not particularly worried about the delayed results: "The MDC are celebrating now but I think it is premature. Let them wait for the official result to be announced."
14:59 GMT, Harare: "The real fear now is that the government is holding back the official results to incite violence," says Mukonikoni by e-mail. "This would give them reason to impose some kind of martial law."
14:30 GMT, Harare: Thokozani e-mailed to say people are anxious about the delays in the results. "We are tired of suffering at the expense of a few selfish individuals. I hope the world just doesn't turn a blind eye as has happened before. We need help," he says.
14:28 GMT, Harare: Patrick voted yesterday for the MDC. He contacted us to say: "When the results started coming through there was real excitement, cell phone networks were jammed with people exchanging results. Now the excitement is dying down, as the results are showing the MDC and Zanu-PF are tied. People are beginning to feel that there has been some trick by the government."
13:54 GMT, Mutare Lazarus e-mails in to say that if people feel election results have been rigged, "people will burst with anger and probably demonstrate or become violent".
13:51 GMT, Harare Thomas told the BBC of his fears: "My constituency is Harare central. I think the results are there and they are taking their time. I feel they are manipulating the numbers. I fear a win for Zanu-PF. We really fear that. We know for sure that in the urban areas Zanu-PF will not win. But what about elsewhere?"
13:42 GMT Zvishavane: Kudzie e-mailed to say: "People here are very anxious. We have been accessing many websites and using our phones to try to get the results. The critical challenge is the abuse of the state security forces. They have been deployed in most places. Helicopters were flying just over our town a few days before elections. I have not met anyone who is backing Mugabe. And yes we are all very nervous."
13:25 GMT Ndondandishe from Harare e-mails in saying that in Glen Norah there has been no reported violence and claims that the MDC has taken the constituency by a big margin: "We want change - and sure enough change has come. I phoned my parents in the rural areas of Masvingo and they said MDC has also won there, even though the official results have yet to be announced. That used to be a Zanu stronghold, but not anymore. We are tired of prices that go up everyday."
13:21 GMT An anonymous voter from Gweru e-mails in to express concerns: "The delay is becoming dubious, it seems they are trying to cook figures."
13:03 GMT, Harare: Shingie contacted the BBC to say: What worries me is that the results have not been published yet. Those working at the polling stations claimed counting was completed yesterday morning. How can it take so much time to verify? We are anxious and the longer it takes the more likely it seems that the 'verified' result will be far from the actual result."
10:43 GMT, Harare: Wilma e-mailed us to say: "They are already rigging the results, judging from the announcements on radio and television. It truly pathetic for Mugabe to keep holding on to power when it is pretty obvious that he has lost."
09:55 GMT, Zvishavane: Dhewa e-mailed us to say he believes "something fishy is going on". He says: "I understand the counting of the votes started soon after the polling stations were closed. So what puzzles me is the delay. Heavy deployment of riot police and other armed forces really shows something is being cooked up."
08:53 GMT, Gweru: Willard Nyamubarwa contacted the BBC to say voting was very straightforward and peaceful. But he is concerned about the delay in the publication of results, and that there is a tense atmosphere as people wait to find out the final results. Willard is also concerned that that MDC is saying it has won ahead of official results.
0837 GMT, Harare: Adam e-mailed us to say there is great concern that results are being manipulated by the government.
08:37 GMT: MDC supporter Munya texts in to say: "We are happy, enjoying a landmark victory despite the delay in announcing results."
07:57 GMT, Harare: Dumiso e-mailed to say: "The voting was peaceful, the only concern is the delay of the results. This will cause some problems if the opposition lose the at the end of the day. We want to change now."
07:13 GMT, Harare: Tawanda e-mailed us to say that he thinks the MDC won the election at all levels. "But the important thing is no longer who won but whether Mugabe will be willing to accept defeat," he says.
06:52 GMT, Harare: Esther e-mailed to say there have been unprecedented events - with no main news bulletin on Sunday night. She believes it is because the results are simply too embarrassing for Zanu PF.
The BBC has not been allowed to send reporters into Zimbabwe. Some names have been changed to protect their identities.
HARARE , 31 March 2008 (IRIN) -
Zimbabwe's rural areas, once viewed as
strongholds of the ruling ZANU-PF
party, are backing the opposition party,
the Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC), according to intial results from
the March 29 poll.
The sharp
move away in support for President Robert Mugabe's ruling party,
is
resulting in a slew of senior government memebers losing their
parliamentary
seats in such provinces as Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland
West - Mugabe's
home province - Mashonaland East, Manicaland, Masvingo and
Midlands
province.
Early returns announced by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
(ZEC) late on
Monday, indicated the MDC, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, and
ZANU-PF were tied
on 19 parliamentary seats a piece. There are 210 elected
parliamentary
seats.
The ZEC's announcement of the election results
appears to be developing a
pattern where both of the main rival parties
remain tied in the number of
seats they have won, although no results by
late Monday had been announced
from urban areas, seen as bastions of support
for the MDC.
Tendai Biti, the MDC secretary general, told IRIN they had
been collating
their own results from polling stations and determined that
"We (the MDC)
have garnered more votes in rural areas than in urban
areas."
"In Manicaland province, we have won 20 out of 26 seats with most
of them
being rural. In Masvingo province, we claimed 15 seats out of 26.
There are
no variations between our own figures and those announced by ZEC.
The worst
case scenario for us would be a run off but we are confident that
we will
romp home to victory."
George Chiweshe, a retired army
officer and ZEC chairman, told journalists
at a briefing in the capital
Harare he was opposed to the opposition party
and the media announcing
unofficial results.
"I do not understand the impatience of stakeholders
including journalists
both foreign and local."
Delay in
results
He defended the delay in announcing the results as a consequence
of the
holding of combined elections.
"We are doing 210 House of
Assembly constituencies, 60 senatorial
constituencies in addition to more
than 1,000 municipal wards plus the
presidential election.
"This
should all things being equal, take four days but it has taken us 48
hours.
In other countries where we have observed elections, they take longer
as the
job requires more time," Chiweshe said.
There were no indications late on
Monday about which way the presidential
ballot was heading and wether, after
28 years in office, Mugabe's presidency
would end and Tsvangirai installed
as his successor.
The MDC, which went into the elections divided, has
seen one sided support
for Tsvangirai's faction.
President of the
pro-Senate faction, Arthur Mutambara was defeated in
parliamentary elections
in Chitungwiza, a dormitory town outside the
capital, while his deputy,
Gibson Sibanda lost in Bulawayo as did the
secretary general, Welshman
Ncube.
[ENDS]
Reuters
Mon 31 Mar 2008,
18:23 GMT
By MacDonald Dzirutwe
HARARE (Reuters) - Concern grew on
Monday that long delays in issuing
Zimbabwe's election results hid attempts
by President Robert Mugabe to cling
to power by rigging.
Almost 48
hours after polls closed, only 52 of 210 parliamentary
constituencies had
been declared, showing Mugabe's ZANU-PF party one seat
ahead of the main
opposition MDC. Two of his ministers lost their seats.
No results
were announced for the presidential vote, in which Mugabe faces
the most
formidable political challenge of his 28 years in power.
"It is now clear
that there is something fishy. The whole thing is
suspicious and totally
unacceptable," said MDC (Movement for Democratic
Change) spokesman Nelson
Chamisa.
Mugabe, 84, is under unprecedented pressure from a two-pronged
attack by
veteran MDC rival Morgan Tsvangirai and ZANU-PF defector Simba
Makoni, who
both blame him for Zimbabwe's ruin.
Official results
showed ZANU-PF with 26 seats, MDC with 25 and a breakaway
MDC faction with
one.
There was a chorus of concern over the delays, including former
colonial
ruler Britain, the European Union and both opposition
challengers.
The MDC said unofficial tallies showed Tsvangirai had 60
percent of the
presidential vote, twice the total for Mugabe, with more than
half the
results counted. Private polling organisations also put Tsvangirai
well
ahead.
In his first public comments since the vote, Makoni
criticised the way
results were being announced. "We are very worried by the
manner in which
things are unfolding," he told
Reuters.
CONCERN
The Save Zimbabwe Campaign, a coalition of civic,
political and religious
groups, also expressed concern at the delay which it
said "gives reason to
Zimbabweans to suspect that the electoral process is
being manipulated by
the incumbent."
Although the odds seemed stacked
against Mugabe, in power since independence
in 1980, analysts believe his
iron grip on the country and solid backing
from the armed forces could
enable him to ignore the results and declare
victory.
Tsvangirai and
some international observers accused Mugabe of stealing the
last
presidential election in 2002.
Zimbabwe is suffering the world's highest
inflation of more than 100,000
percent, chronic shortages of food and fuel,
and an HIV/AIDS epidemic that
has contributed to a steep decline in life
expectancy.
The MDC said its tally showed it had won 96 parliamentary
constituencies out
of 128 counted. Makoni had 10 percent of the unofficial
presidential vote
count. "In our view, as we stated before, we cannot see
the national trend
changing. This means the people have spoken, they've
spoken against the
dictatorship," MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti
said.
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Public Affairs Minister Chen
Chimutengwende both lost their seats.
The state-run Herald newspaper
accused the MDC of "preparing its supporters
to engage in violence by
pre-empting results, claiming they had won". The
government has warned that
any early victory claim would be regarded as an
attempted
coup.
Mugabe blames Zimbabwe's collapse on Britain and says Western
sanctions have
sabotaged the economy.
He rejects vote-rigging
allegations.
Electoral Commission chairman George Chiweshe said the delay
in results was
due to the complexity of holding presidential, parliamentary
and local polls
together for the first time.
In previous elections,
most results have been released by this stage.
British Foreign Secretary
David Miliband said in a statement there should be
no unnecessary delay in
releasing the results. "The international community
is watching events
closely," he said.
A spokesman for the European Commission said it would
be "opportune" for the
electoral commission to publish final results as soon
as possible "to
demonstrate its independence and to avoid unnecessary
speculation."
Two South African members of a regional observer mission
said the delay in
announcing the election results "underscores the fear that
vote-rigging is
taking place".
Reuters
Mon 31 Mar
2008, 17:54 GMT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States expressed
concern that Zimbabwe's
election results were being delayed, and urged the
country's electoral
commission on Monday to put aside any partisan
sympathies and ensure all
votes are counted "honestly" from last weekend's
presidential poll.
There were growing concerns in the African country
that long delays in
issuing election results masked attempts by President
Robert Mugabe to cling
to power by rigging the outcome.
"We have seen
some results, but are concerned that the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission is
delaying the annoulcement of election results," said White
House spokesman
Tony Fratto.
"We're urging the election commission to count every vote
honestly and to
release results quickly that reflect the will and
preferences of the people
of Zimbabwe," he said.
State Department
spokesman Tom Casey pointed to a long list of
irregularities in the run-up
to Saturday's poll, including an over-printing
of ballot papers, which he
predicted could make vote counting problematic.
"It is no secret that the
Zimbabwean electoral commission has a partisan
cast to it and we would
certainly hope that regardless of the partisan
sympathies of any members of
that commission, that they would again follow
the letter and spirit of the
law," he said.
The latest counts showed Zimbabwe's opposition to be even
with President
Robert Mugabe.
Asked to comment on the elections over
the weekend, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice told reporters: "The Mugabe
regime is a disgrace to the
people of Zimbabwe and a disgrace to southern
Africa and to the continent of
Africa as a whole."
Casey and other
U.S. officials declined to comment specifically on the
election results
released so far and said they were waiting for a clearer
picture to
emerge.
"We want to wait and see what results the Zimbabwean electoral
commission
does produce," said Casey.
Asked whether he was worried
about the possibility of post-electoral
violence in Zimbabwe, as happened
after the disputed Kenyan election last
December, Casey said violence did
not serve anyone's interests.
"At the same time, we understand that the
Zimbabwean people have suffered
greatly under President Mugabe's leadership.
We have seen many instances
where the will of the people has been thwarted,"
said Casey.
"We are concerned about the situation and we certainly hope
the election
results as reported by the Zimbabwean electoral commission do
in fact match
the will of the Zimbabwean people," he added.
BBC
19:07 GMT, Monday, 31 March 2008
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said the "eyes of the world" are on
Zimbabwe
and said that its election results should be published without
delay.
He said it was also important that the elections were "seen to be
fair".
Official results show seats are split between the ruling Zanu-PF
party and
the Movement for Democratic Change, who say the results are being
rigged.
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg urged the PM to increase pressure for a
"swift and
transparent" declaration of results.
Downing Street said
Mr Brown had discussed the situation with South African
President Thabo
Mbeki on Monday, but would not give details of the talks.
Seats
split
MDC official Tendai Biti has told the BBC that results from
Saturday's
general election have started to trickle in - 36 hours after the
polls
closed - but he claimed they were being rigged.
Bright Matonga,
from the ruling Zanu-PF party, told the BBC he was confident
that Mr Mugabe
would be re-elected and Zanu-PF would retain its majority in
parliament.
The MDC says its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai has won
60% of the vote, against
30% for Robert Mugabe.
Official results
suggest both sides have 26 parliamentary seats each so far.
Mr Mugabe has
denied repeated MDC claims that he would rig the polls.
Mr Brown said:
"The eyes of the world will be on Zimbabwe today and tomorrow
and I think
two things are very important.
"First of all that the election results
appear and appear quickly so that
people know what's happening on the ground
and nothing is delayed. And
secondly that the elections are seen to be
fair."
'Kenyan-style stand-off'
Foreign Secretary David Miliband
said millions had turned out to vote at the
weekend and "their voice must
now be heard".
"The next few days are critical for the future of
Zimbabwe," he said.
"It is vital that this election should chart a course
for Zimbabwe chosen by
the people of Zimbabwe."
Mr Clegg, whose
party is the third biggest in the UK, said: "There is a very
real threat of
a Kenyan-style stand-off between the opposition and Mugabe's
regime which is
potentially even more dangerous, given the fragility of the
Zimbabwean
state.
"Gordon Brown must seek urgent discussions with Thabo Mbeki and
other
leaders of the South African Development Community to ensure that
maximum
pressure is applied to ensure a swift and transparent declaration of
results."
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague told the BBC Britain
could not
pretend it had the answer - as so much depended on Zimbabwe's
neighbours -
South Africa in particular.
But he added: "I think if he
[Mugabe] declares victory on the basis of a
rigged result and from
everything we can see that would be the only basis on
which he could achieve
a victory - we do need then an intensification of the
international pressure
on Zimbabwe, on the Mugabe regime."
BBC diplomatic correspondent Bridget
Kendall said Mr Brown's words had been
carefully chosen, as Britain - the
former colonial master - was always
worried about being accused of
meddling.
The prime minister's spokesman has hinted at possible increases
in aid for
Zimbabwe, but if the election is deemed to be stolen, officials
admit there
is very little Western governments can do about it, she
added.
Instead it is likely they will look to other African countries to
mediate or
use leverage to try to manage or salvage the
situation.
Financial Times
By Alec
Russell, Southern Africa Correspondent
Published: March 31 2008 18:41 |
Last updated: March 31 2008 18:41
When President Robert Mugabe held a
crisis meeting on Sunday night to
consider his options in the wake of
mounting evidence of an opposition
victory in the weekend’s elections, it
was not with his cabinet, nor with
the officials of his ruling Zanu-PF
party.
Rather he met the “securocrats” – Zimbabwe’s heads of
intelligence, military
and security, and according to diplomatic sources
their advice was just
about as hardline as it has been in every government
decision since they
assumed a prime role in running the country some years
ago.
“In the JOC [Joint Operations Command] meeting there were two
options on the
table for Mugabe: declare victory on Sunday night or declare
martial law,”
said a diplomat who spoke to two sources privy to the
meeting.
“They didn’t consider conceding. We understand Mugabe nearly decided
to
declare victory. Cooler heads have prevailed,” he added, saying a
decision
was taken to rely on the state-appointed Zimbabwe Election
Commission to
delay the release of results, then try to fix the result in
the counting
process. The defiant stance is in keeping with the recent
record of the JOC,
which has held increasing sway over government decisions
since the
presidential election in 2002.
Diplomats and Zanu-PF
dissidents say it is this body which will be decisive
in steering the
autocrat’s stance in the political crisis engulfing Zimbabwe
after
Saturday’s elections.
With this in mind, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the
opposition Movement for
Democratic Change, who according to independent
tallies of the vote is
sweeping to victory in the presidential race, has in
the past 24 hours put
out feelers to the military. He is hoping that with
results from polling
stations showing Zanu-PF has been all but routed,
increasingly the thoughts
of the military chiefs will turn to their own
future rather than that of the
regime.
In the countdown to the
election, heads of the police and the army said they
would not take orders
from Mr Tsvangirai if he won. According to sources
close to the opposition
leader, he has sent a message to Solomon Mujuru, a
former army commander and
a powerbroker in Zanu-PF, asking what “guarantees”
the military might want
from a new administration. As of Monday morning he
had not received a
response.
Military officers hold senior positions in civilian bodies such
as the Grain
Marketing Board, the Electoral Supervisory Commission and the
Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe. According to a report last year by the
International Crisis
Group, the JOC oversaw the government’s strategy in the
regional attempts to
mediate between Zanu-PF and the
opposition.
Publicly, senior figures in Zanu-PF are putting a brave face
on the
situation. But privately they were stunned, analysts say, by the
results
which, according to independent monitors, signal their first
electoral
defeat since they took power at independence in 1980. However Mr
Mugabe
decides to respond, with the economy in freefall, most appreciate
that their
control on power – and the access to business opportunities and
state
patronage that has given them – cannot last much longer, say
insiders.
One of the critical questions for Zimbabwe now is whether the
military
commanders can rely on their subordinates to obey orders if the JOC
and Mr
Mugabe decide to initiate a clampdown on the opposition, as they have
done
before when under pressure.
In the event of Mr Mugabe claiming a
disputed victory, an outbreak of
widespread violence, as happened in Kenya
in December under similar
circumstances, seems unlikely. Zimbabwe does not
have Kenya’s combustible
ethnic divide, and opposition leaders are keen to
avoid giving the
government an excuse for a crackdown. But the party fears
that the security
might use isolated cases of protests to impose a state of
emergency.
Mr Mugabe has been careful to try to retain the military
commanders’
loyalty. In a speech a year ago he praised the security forces
as “the
vanguard of our revolution and national integrity” and hailed their
“critical role in buttressing our economic activities”.
But diplomats
and analysts have long speculated that many in the lower ranks
of the
security forces are increasingly disillusioned with the regime, given
that
their families, like most Zimbabweans, are suffering hardship. “Mugabe
is in
the hands of the military command and they are in the hands of the
soldiers,
and they sense that the rank and file are not wholly loyal,” said
one
diplomat.
Guardian
The outcome of the Zimbabwe elections depends largely
on the armed forces.
Previously loyal to Mugabe, they are now showing signs
of dissent
Andrew Meldrum
March 31, 2008 5:30 PM
As
Zimbabwean authorities announce the official election results in dribs
and
drabs, the nation is on tenterhooks as the results of the crucial
presidential and parliamentary elections hang in the balance.
No
matter who is announced winner of the presidential race - Robert Mugabe
or
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai - the Zimbabwean military and police
will play a key role in making sure that the result is not challenged by
angry demonstrators.
Just a few weeks ago General Constantine
Chiwenga, the army commander, and
Augustine Chihuri, the police
commissioner, gave extraordinary public
pledges that they would not obey
orders from anyone except Mugabe. In the
past 48 hours the army and police
have displayed that loyalty to Mugabe by
maintaining a heavy presence
throughout Harare, especially in the populous
townships which are hotbeds of
support for the opposition. Helmeted riot
police, armoured personnel
carriers and vehicles topped by water cannons
have patrolled the townships,
a clear warning to the opposition against
taking to the streets to challenge
the results.
Yet the loyalty of the military and police to Mugabe may not
be as secure as
it seems at first glance. While the top generals and other
officers have,
indeed, benefited from the largesse of Mugabe, the rank and
file in the army
and police have suffered under poor pay and working
conditions. Police
appear in shabby uniforms and it is well-known they
cannot afford to keep
their families adequately fed and decently housed.
Mugabe, aware of the
disgruntlement, last month granted hefty pay raises to
his armed forces.
However, with inflation running at more than 100,000%, the
army and police
officers are well aware that their pay increases are worth
less every day.
Many in the security forces say privately that they are
dismayed by the
blatant politicisation of their once professional bodies.
They are aware
that they may be held responsible for human rights abuses,
including
torture, committed during Mugabe's rule.
Although the state
media continue to report on the steadfast loyalty of the
security forces,
some independent media outlets have reported that the
chiefs of the armed
forces have briefed Mugabe that the army, air force and
police cannot be
counted on to crack down on any angry demonstrators
protesting against what
they believe is a "stolen election". If the security
forces waver in their
support for Mugabe, it could well be a decisive
setback for his continued
rule.
Institute for War & Peace
Reporting (London)
31 March 2008
Posted to the web 31 March
2008
Joseph Sithole
Harare
In what can best be described as a
shock result, President Robert Mugabe and
his ruling ZANU-PF party are about
to announce victory for Mugabe in the
parliamentary and presidential
elections, according to unofficial results
leaked from the ZANU-PF and
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, command
centres.
But sources
within the ZEC centre - newly christened the National Collation
Centre - say
Mugabe clearly lost the election to his opposition rival Morgan
Tsvangirai,
polling only 20 per cent of the vote. He is also said to trail
Simba Makoni
who garnered 28 per cent.
Tsvangirai is said to be leading but just
failed to get the requisite 50 per
cent plus one vote. According to ZANU-PF
sources at the collation centre,
ZEC is about to announce that the ruling
party won by 111 seats, with some
rural constituencies recording huge
victories for Mugabe.
The sources said in Mugabe’s traditional
strongholds, such as Uzumba Maramba
Pfungwe, he won with huge margins of
more than 30,000 votes, with Movement
for Democratic Change, MDC, president
Tsvangirai getting as few as 2,000
votes.
But commentators say it
would be something of a miracle if Mugabe and his
party had secured the
victory, given more than 85 per cent unemployment,
serious food shortages
and a collapsed health delivery system.
IWPR could not get the exact
percentage by which Mugabe will be said to have
won but the sources said
there would not be a run-off, as ZANU-PF will claim
Mugabe has clinched more
than 50 per cent of the total number of voters
cast.
Some of the
ruling party’s heavyweights that have fallen include Minister of
Women
Affairs Oppah Muchunguri, Agriculture Minister Joseph Made, Justice,
Legal
and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Minister of
Energy and
Power Development Mike Nyambuya, and Information Minister
Sikhanyiso
Ndlovu.
The supposed election results, if ZEC goes ahead to announce
them, are
likely to be condemned locally and internationally. The election
will be
viewed as stolen because of voter intimidation and allegations of
vote
rigging.
There are already reports coming from the United States
saying sanctions,
currently targeted at Mugabe and his close associates,
would be intensified
if the ballot were not free and fair. The same is
likely to come from
Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other
western countries.
But what is more worrying now is how Zimbabweans are
going to receive the
result, especially after the MDC has been saying it
“has won this election
beyond any reasonable doubt”.
Zimbabweans cast
their votes at the weekend amid indications the poll was
already stolen,
with reports of stuffed ballot boxes being discovered in
Mashonaland Central
and Masvingo provinces. The opposition parties and
independent candidates
had already alleged that Mugabe was going to rig this
election to avoid a
humiliating loss.
The MDC last week uncovered gross irregularities in the
voters’ roll,
showing thousands of voters supposedly living on what turned
out to be open
ground. According to the voters’ roll, 65 per cent of voters
registered in
Harare North live on a piece of land that used to belong to
the Ernest
Kadungure housing co-operative.
However, upon visiting the
area, the MDC found that it was one of the areas
where shacks were
demolished during Operation Murambatsvina, when the
government destroyed
homes in areas that were perceived to be MDC
strongholds.
The
Pan-African Parliament, PAP, at the close of voting on March 29, raised
concerns with ZEC chairman George Chiweshe.
In a letter to Chiweshe,
PAP Election Observer Mission leader Marwick
Khumalo said it saw no evidence
that there were any residents in Ward 42,
which is deserted land with a few
wooden sheds, despite voters from that
deserted ward being listed on the
voters’ roll. The Crisis Coalition of
Zimbabwe, CCZ, has said whatever the
outcome of the results of the general
elections, the process will not be a
true and legitimate expression of the
democratic will of the people of
Zimbabwe.
CCZ spokesman McDonald Lewanika said civil society in Zimbabwe
deplored the
recent comments by service chiefs saying that they would not
accept the
election of any presidential candidate but Mugabe.
Army
commander Constantine Chiwenga and head of the prison services retired
Major-General Paradzai Zimondi announced they would not salute anyone but
Mugabe, while police chief Augustine Chihuri said he would not accept an
opposition victory.
Lewanika also condemned statements by Mugabe, who
has been using threatening
and intimidating language in speeches to the
electorate.
In Bulawayo, Mugabe told a rally that voting for the MDC
would be a waste of
time and that he would not allow the opposition party to
rule Zimbabwe.
Tsvangirai said in an interview recently that if Mugabe won
the election,
“it’s dead end for the country”.
Once-prosperous
Zimbabwe is suffering from the world's highest inflation
rate of more than
100,000 per cent, chronic shortages of food and fuel, and
an HIV/AIDS
epidemic that has contributed to a steep decline in life
expectancy.
Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of an IWPR-trained
journalist in Zimbabwe.
Financial Times
By Alec
Russell, Southern Africa Correspondent
Published: March 31 2008 20:11 |
Last updated: March 31 2008 20:11
Concern mounted on Monday that
President Robert Mugabe was determined to
defy evidence of a defeat in
elections as the state-appointed election
authority issued results showing
the ruling Zanu-PF party taking a narrow
lead over the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change.
As the Zimbabwe Election Commission said that
Zanu-PF had 26 seats to the
MDC’s 25, it emerged that Mr Mugabe held a
crisis meeting with his security
chiefs in the joint operations command on
Sunday night to plot how he could
stay in power. This followed the release
of results from polling stations
which showed the president was heading for
defeat for the first time since
independence in 1980.
The JOC,
which consists of the heads of intelligence, police and the
military,
considered imposing a state of emergency or a unilateral
declaration of
victory by Mr Mugabe, before opting to rely on the ZEC to
falsify the
results during the count, according to a diplomat who spoke to
two sources
privy to the meeting.
In an apparent reflection of the turmoil in Zanu-PF,
there were dissenting
voices at the meeting. A former senior Zanu-PF
official and an official from
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
told the Financial Times the
meeting saw a debate between “hawks” and
“doves”.
But they agreed with the diplomat that the upshot of the meeting
was not
defeatist. “I think they [the security chiefs] are trying to work
out what
the situation will look like in a few days and are trying to stall
for time
by delaying the results,” said the former Zanu-PF
official.
Details of the meeting emerged as western officials urged
regional
governments to consider the possible consequences of their refusing
to
condemn a “stolen” election, diplomats said. These included the damage to
their reputation and a fresh flood of refugees across Zimbabwe’s borders
fleeing the country’s economic meltdown if Mr Mugabe stayed in power.
Concerns were mounting on Monday night that the authorities were considering
falsifying the final figures, as 48 hours after polls closed the ZEC had
issued details on only 51 seats.
The MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai,
exchanged angry words with the Angolan
head of the observer mission from the
Southern African Development
Community, the regional grouping, at a meeting
late on Sunday night after it
issued a statement endorsing the election as
“peaceful” and “credible”.
MDC sources said the South African delegation
was unhappy with the statement
but only two members of the South African
opposition Democratic Alliance
publicly criticised it.
Independent
election monitors say that, based on the results of about
two-thirds of the
polling stations, Mr Tsvangirai had won about 55 per cent
in the
presidential race, with Mr Mugabe on 36 per cent and Simba Makoni, a
former
finance minister, on 8 per cent.
The joint presidential and parliamentary
elections have posed the greatest
challenge to Mr Mugabe’s 28-year rule.
Among the losers in the parliamentary
race, according to ZEC’s official
results, was the justice minister, Patrick
Chinamasa. Independent monitors
say at least six ministers lost their seats.
According to results collected
by the MDC from polling stations, the results
from 128 of the 210
constituencies gave Mr Tsvangirai 60 per cent, Mr Mugabe
30 per cent and the
MDC 96 parliamentary seats.
Financial Times
Published: March 31 2008 19:18 | Last
updated: March 31 2008 19:18
It should be clear already that Robert
Mugabe’s time is up. Unofficial
results from Saturday’s elections point to a
resounding defeat both for
Zimbabwe’s leader of 28 years and for the ruling
Zanu-PF party. Even in his
rural strongholds, despair and economic ruin have
cost Mr Mugabe once
reliable support. After years of opposition, Morgan
Tsvangirai and his
Movement for Democratic Change have come out on top. That
they did, despite
gerrymandering, vote-buying and intimidation, as well as
an electoral
register heaving with ghosts, is testament to the bravery of
Zimbabweans and
resilience of their hopes.
Unfortunately that may not
be enough. By Sunday morning most results were
pinned up outside polling
stations. They should have been collated and
announced at national level
shortly thereafter. Instead they have been
trickling in. This is cause for
concern. There is no way Mr Mugabe can
plausibly claim to have won.
Nevertheless, it looks possible that
Zimbabweans will be drip fed another
rigged Mugabe victory by an electoral
commission packed with
loyalists.
There are few sticks that the west has not wielded already in
a failed
effort to prise Mr Mugabe out. Neighbouring countries have helped
to prop
him up and given him little cause to fear. Out of office there is
every
chance that prison awaits him and his acolytes. They have everything
to lose
from standing down and – they may be calculating – nothing to lose
from
sitting tight. The cost of such an outcome for Zimbabwe, and Africa as
a
whole, would be enormous.
For Zimbabweans the coming days may
determine whether the transition from Mr
Mugabe’s rule will lead to state
collapse and conflict or to recovery. At
stake for Africa is the credibility
of its institutions and their commitment
to the rule of law. Any attempt by
African governments to close ranks around
Mr Mugabe will be greeted in the
wider world with disdain. South Africa is
especially vulnerable both to the
potential fall-out from chaos in its
northern neighbour and further damage
to its diplomatic reputation. Thabo
Mbeki, the outgoing president, pledged
to deliver free and fair elections in
Zimbabwe through mediation. In this he
has already failed.
Despite immediate uncertainty, there is an
inevitability, born of the voters’
verdict and popular defiance, about the
regime’s demise. No one outside
Zimbabwe can claim credit. Zimbabweans have
faced a lonely struggle. In the
last resort, they may have no option but to
take to the streets to save
their country from a creeping coup.
SW Radio Africa
(London)
31 March 2008
Posted to the web 31 March 2008
Lance
Guma
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa became the first Zanu PF
heavyweight to
be defeated in the country's harmonised parliamentary,
senate, council and
presidential elections. As the first batch of official
results were released
by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Chinamasa was
beaten by little known
MDC Tsvangirai candidate John Nyamande. Only a few
months ago Nyamande was
the interim chairman of the MDC United Kingdom
Province, before he decided
to go back home and seek a parliamentary seat.
Nyamande told Newsreel, 'I'm
over the moon. I cant believe it.' He says he
did not expect to beat the
Justice Minister who was backed by state
resources.
Nyamande said the MDC had won overwhelmingly in Manicaland at
both senate,
council, parliamentary and presidential level. Although the ZEC
is
announcing the results in trickles Nyamande said their supporters already
know they won. 'It's difficult for our people to contain their feelings and
we urge them to remain calm,' he added. In another set of results released
later in the day, another government Minister Chen Chimutengwende lost in
Mazoe Central to MDC Tsvangirai candidate Shepherd Mushonga. Chimutengwende
who is the Minister for Public and Interactive Affairs lost in a province
that has traditionally tended to favour Zanu PF.
Meanwhile Zanu
PF candidate and science and technology Minister Olivia
Muchena, retained
her seat in Mutoko South while Mugabe's nephew Patrick
Zhuwawo won in Zvimba
East. Other notable Zanu PF winners were Vice
President Joyce Mujuru, Stan
Mudenge, Saviour Kasukuwere, Nicholas Goche and
Webster Shamu. On Monday
late morning the MDC claimed that out of 128
constituencies tallied so far
they have won 96 and that party leader Morgan
Tsvangirai has 60 percent of
the presidential vote. Robert Mugabe is
trailing with 30 percent while Simba
Makoni is third with 10 percent.
By early afternoon the results being
announced by the ZEC were still
tallying with the MDC's own figures. Biti
said they now had more seats in
the rural areas than urban ones. In figures
released by the ZEC for 52
constituencies, Zanu PF was leading by one seat.
The MDC claims Zanu PF will
soon run out of positive results to announce. A
website calling itself the
Independent Results Centre, and we must stress
this is completely
unofficial, has the MDC leading with 117 seats, Zanu PF
50 and the
Mutambara/Makoni bloc on 20. Tsvangirai is said to have 58
percent of the
presidential vote, Mugabe 37 percent and Makoni 5
percent.
Posted at 8:26am on 01 Apr
2008
A former New Zealand High Commissioner to Zimbabwe believes Robert
Mugabe
will have prepared an escape plan if he loses power.
President
Mugabe, 84, faces the biggest challenge of his 28-year rule and is
seeking a
sixth term in elections held at the weekend.
Almost two days after polls
closed only a fraction of the 210 parliamentary
constituencies had been
declared, showing Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF party one seat
ahead of the main
opposition party, Movement for Democratic Change.
There is international
concern that the figures have been rigged, and no
results have yet been
announced for the presidential vote.
Chris Laidlaw has been a
Commonwealth observer of the previous three
elections in Zimbabwe.
Mr
Laidlaw says Mr Mugabe has done everything he can to rig the vote, but
there
may have been an internal revolt by previously loyal officials.
He says
Mr Mugabe will probably have to leave Zimbabwe.
Mr Laidlaw says if Mr
Mugabe loses, it is not clear who will be in a
position to lead
Zimbabwe.
Copyright © 2008 Radio New Zealand
Monsters and Critics
Mar 31, 2008, 18:34 GMT
Harare - A team of 19
monitors from the Pan-African Parliament (PAP) on
Monday gave a qualified
thumbs-up to Saturday's election in Zimbabwe, in
which President Robert
Mugabe's 28-year rule hangs in the balance.
The PAP election observation
mission told a press conference in Harare it
had noticed several
irregularities but said these 'were not so major as to
compromise the flow
of the electoral process.'
'However, the mission is concerned that two
days after the closure of the
polls, the overall outcome of the elections
remains unknown,' Marwick
Khumalo, the chairman of the mission,
said.
'The post-election phase, including the announcement of results,
remains a
concern and needs to be closely monitored,' he added.
Among
the irregularities noted by the PAP observers were the handing out by
Mugabe
of tractors, ploughs and other gifts on the campaign trail.
'The timing
of such generosity was unfortunate,' said Khulamo, who also
decried
statements by the country's security chiefs vowing they would not
salute a
Western 'puppet' - Mugabe's term for his two main opponents -
MOrgan
Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and former
finance
minister Simba Makoni.
'These statements violate the professional ethics
of the security forces and
goes against the spirit of the democratic
electoral process by its
intimidatory nature,' said Khumalo.
The
Movement for Democratic Change has claimed an outright victory in the
polls,
but official results are still pending.
zimbabwejournalists.com
31st Mar 2008 17:01 GMT
By a Correspondent
LONDON -
The International Bar Association (IBA) today called upon Zimbabwe’s
electoral authorities and accredited international observers to take all
steps necessary to ensure that the will of the electorate is not
thwarted.
"The catalogue of serious irregularities reported ahead of the
March 29
elections suggests that yet again Zimbabwe will not have free and
fair
elections," said Mark Ellis, Executive Director of the International
Bar
Association.
"Most international observers and media have been
denied permission to
observe this process. However, the Zimbabwean
government has allowed the
African Union, Southern African Development
Community and other selected
entities to observe. They should not fail the
Zimbabwean people by endorsing
a process that falls below acceptable
standards," he said.
"Zimbabweans have for years shown remarkable
restraint in the face of the
systematic denial of their rights and the
subversion of democratic process,"
Ellis said. "They have endured a series
of deeply flawed elections but kept
their faith in democracy. Now there are
signs that voters are losing their
patience with fraudulent elections, which
could lead to violence."
He added, "It is, therefore, imperative that the
foreign observers speak out
strongly against all irregularities in this
election."
The IBA said that credible local and international
organisations have
reported extensive pre-election irregularities, such
as:
· gerrymandering;
· inaccurate voter rolls;
·
violence and intimidation of opposition political parties and civil
society;
· overproduction of postal ballots for police, military,
diplomats, and
electoral officials and the absence of an independent process
to count the
postal votes so as to prevent multiple voting;
·
inadequate polling stations in urban areas;
· bias against the
opposition in the state-run media;
· permission for police to be present
inside polling stations in breach of
the recent SADC-brokered
agreement;
· politicized distribution of government-controlled food, and
other
benefits and government resources; and
· denial of observer
status to significant regional bodies, including the
SADC Lawyers
Association.
Guardian
Of the various dubious courses that remain open
to Zimbabwe's leader, the
worst is the Musharraf gambit
Simon
Tisdall
March 31, 2008 4:00 PM |
Elections supposedly give
voters the right to choose. But after 28 years of
increasingly dictatorial
rule, economic mismanagement, human rights abuses
and international
sanctions, the choice of what kind of future awaits
Zimbabwe still rests
with one man: Robert Mugabe.
The 84-year-old president's hold on power, once
both legitimate and
unchallengeable, has been severely weakened by his own
failures, isolation
and paranoia, and now by an apparently stunning
electoral reverse. All the
stuffed ballot boxes in the world may not drown
out Saturday's cry of rage.
Yesterday's official silence concerning the
presidential election results
suggests even the most expert vote-riggers,
their dubious skills honed in
earlier stolen contests, are at a stand over
how to make defeat add up to
victory. That will not stop them trying. The
whole crooked regime has too
much to lose, and to fear from possible
reprisals, to give up without one
last fiddle.
But as of now,
Mugabe's choices will determine how things go in the critical
next few days.
Breaking the habit of a lifetime, he could choose to concede
defeat and bow
out gracefully. A deal with the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change
guaranteeing him protection from future harassment or
domestic legal action
would be seen by many as a small price to pay for a
peaceful transfer of
power.
South Africa or some other friendly neighbour might be counted on
to afford
him a retirement sanctuary in return for an end to the strife that
adversely
affects them all. But past performance, informed by innate
stubbornness and
pride, suggests Mugabe will not freely take this
route.
Alternatively Mugabe could try to elevate himself above the fray,
depicting
himself as a mediator or arbitrator between the warring
parliamentary
factions of the MDC and Zanu-PF. Temporary power-sharing
arrangements might
then be discussed.
"A negotiated settlement need
not necessarily remove Mugabe," the
International Crisis Group said in a
report this month on Zimbabwe's
prospects after the polls. "He might, for
example, serve as a non-executive
head of state during a transitional period
until new elections can be held."
This way his stature as a liberation hero
and founding father could be
safeguarded.
But this course resembles
the option Mugabe rejected last October when
leading party members urged him
to stand down in favour of a younger
candidate. The sheer scale of his
rejection at the weekend may alter his
thinking. More likely, he will dig in
his heels again.
Mugabe's third choice is to insist, against all the
evidence and the
convictions of international observers, that he has won his
re-election
battle, or at the very least forced a second round run-off
against his main
opponent, the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai. If he takes this
path - and the
longer the results are delayed, the more likely it appears
that he will -
then Zimbabweans will face a choice in their
turn.
Under the intimidating eye of the security forces, voters can bow
to the
oft-brandished threat of violent retribution and passively accept
what
amounts to daylight robbery, as they have been obliged to do in the
past.
Or, less probably, they can take the Kenyan route, counting on
sustained
popular resistance to force the president to back
down.
Mugabe anticipated such a turn of events during the campaign and
warned of
bloody consequences should his opponents take to the streets.
Kenya would
"never happen here", he said. So far, at least, the army has
remained true
to its paymaster. If ordered to crack down, it will. The
consequences would
be terrible for Zimbabwe and the wider
region.
Mugabe's final choice, and possibly the most destructive, may be
termed the
Musharraf gambit, after Pakistan's current president: when facing
electoral
difficulties, and if all else fails, declare a state of emergency,
impose
martial law, suspend parliament and the courts, and rule by
presidential
decree with the support of the armed forces. Locking up your
opponents, or
failing to protect them from assassins, are optional
extras.
Mugabe would probably be loth to shed the trappings of democracy,
which have
long served as window dressing for his growing absolutism. But
with senior
ministers within Zanu-PF losing their seats, and with the
party's loyalty
increasingly strained, the pretence of pluralism or even
oligarchy may no
longer be affordable. Out-and-out dictatorship would be the
logical result.
It is still Mugabe's choice to make. But Zimbabwe's
political fundamentals
changed irrevocably at the weekend. His options are
narrowing fast and may
soon evaporate altogether. Only one thing seems
certain: when the end
finally comes, he will be the very last to accept
it.
VOA
By Chinedu Offor
Washington
31 March 2008
In official results released by
the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the
(ruling) MDC is tied with (the
opposition) ZANU-PF, with each having won 12
parliamentary seats so far. As
results continue to trickle in, English to
Africa reporter Chinedu Offor
spoke with reporter Fazila Mohammed in Harare
about the mood in and around
the capital.
“People seem very confused, some are celebrating, some feel
the result
should have come out…people on the ground are trying to go about
their
normal business, but on the streets the talk is all about the results
not
coming out.” She says the security rings around the city of Harare and
other
parts of the country put in place before the polls have been
relaxed.
“Right now people are moving about. Starting last night, in a
township
called Highfield, people were already celebrating; people actually
waited
outside polling stations demanding to see the results. But in terms
of
security, there [were] lots of riot police which were dropped off on the
streets of Harare last night, but it seems the police are quite relaxed with
the people.”
Mohammed says Zimbabwean electoral authorities are
appealing for calm and
patience from the people as they await the results.
“According to ZEC
(Zimbabwe Electoral Commission), they are saying it will
take some time;
they are also saying that by the end of today, they are
hoping to come out
with the presidential results at least, and the rest they
will continue
after that.”
Southern African Centre for Survivors of Torture
Statement by the Southern African
Centre for Survivors of Torture (SACST)
regarding the impact and import of
organised violence and torture on
Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections, and
prospects for post-election
reconstruction.
The Southern African
Centre for Survivors of Torture (SACST) is a
non-governmental organisation
based in Johannesburg dedicated to the
promotion and provision of medical,
psychosocial and legal services to
primary victims/survivors of organised
violence and torture. The SACST
flagship project, the Zimbabwe Torture
Victims Project (ZTVP), was
established in 2005 to provide assistance to
torture victims and survivors
fleeing deteriorating and abusive conditions
in Zimbabwe.
Since 2005, SACST / ZTVP have assisted hundreds of
Zimbabwean victims and
survivors of organised violence and torture. There
are now over 20,000
Zimbabweans who have applied for political asylum,
despite widespread and
ongoing constraints to access the process. To date,
fewer than 300 have been
granted refugee status – although SACST believes
than many more are indeed
eligible.
Conditions for free and fair
elections?
There has been considerable media coverage dedicated to assessing
the
conditions for free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. In recent elections
(i.e. 2000, 2002 & 2005), there has been overwhelming empirical evidence
that levels of organised violence and torture, primarily sponsored by state
agents and / or surrogates or proxies, have increased significantly during
the run up to elections. Levels of violence in between elections have also
remained unacceptably high.
According to our colleagues from the
Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum, more
than 600 incidents of torture were
recorded in Zimbabwe during 2007. This is
corroborated in our recently
released report, Victims of organised Violence
and Torture in Zimbabwe
attending Refugee Reception offices in South Africa:
Prevalence &
Associated Features. Since 2001, the Forum has recorded over
30,000
individual violations. This does not represent the sum of violations,
but
only that which has been recorded by a smattering of largely
under-resourced
human rights NGOs who are members of the Forum.
This situation has
directly contributed to a massive internal displacement
within Zimbabwe, as
well as an unprecedented exodus of its citizens to South
Africa and
elsewhere. This, in turn, has resulted in the disenfranchisement
of hundreds
of thousands of Zimbabweans who no longer have an opportunity to
exercise
their right to vote in these upcoming elections. As seen elsewhere,
organised violence and torture in Zimbabwe has been utilised as a political
weapon designed to manipulate election outcomes in favour of incumbent
political powers.
In the run up to the 29 March 2008 elections, media
reporting on incidents
of organised violence and torture has noticeably
decreased suggesting that
it is not being employed as a tactic in the same
way as in previous
elections. Nevertheless, SACST urges the media to take
note that reports of
violence and torture continue to be received. According
to the Zimbabwe
Peace Project (a member organisation of the Forum), for
example, over 1775
incidents of political violence have been recorded by
their monitors since
November 2007 (up to early March 2008).
SACST
reminds observers and commentators of the Zimbabwean situation that
analysing conditions for free and fair elections requires a broader and
longitudinal perspective on electoral conditions and the factors influencing
them and cannot be reduced to a narrow set of factors around polling day.
Such an approach necessarily includes experiences of election-related
violence (pre and post-election). In this
context, organised violence
and torture have played a powerful role in
transforming the political
playing fields in Zimbabwe, as well as elsewhere.
The impact of prior
experiences has not been addressed and has not
dissipated, but rather the
situation is compounded by continuing abuses, as
well as ongoing and
widespread impunity for the perpetrators of such
violations.
Stopping
organised violence and torture and an end to impunity
Beyond this election,
it is evident that there can be no stable and
prosperous future in Zimbabwe
without meaningful efforts to firstly
eradicate ongoing incidents of
organised violence and torture, and secondly
to address the impact and
repercussions of organised violence and torture,
through the provision of
services to victims and survivors (including an
opportunity to have their
stories heard without fear of repercussion), and
to employ processes that
ensure those responsible for these violations are
held to account.
In
accordance with the Johannesburg Declaration (signed by over 60
Zimbabwean
Human Rights organisations in August 2003), the SACST calls on
Zimbabwe’s
political leadership to demonstrate the required maturity to
honour these
most basic commitments as an integral component of rebuilding
this fractured
nation.
A copy of our recently released report, Victims of organised
Violence and
Torture in Zimbabwe attending Refugee Reception offices in
South Africa:
Prevalence & Associated Features can be obtained from
SACST, by calling 011
339 4476/4728/4798 or emailing Lynn Merckel, lrmerckel@gmail.com
.
For further
information, please call:
Dr. Fazel Randera – Chairperson – 083 633
7180
Mr. Piers Pigou – Board member – 083 3817150
IOL
March 31 2008 at
08:35PM
South African helicopter pilot Brett Smyth, who was
arrested in
Zimbabwe last week, was released on Monday until his next court
appearance
in Harare, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
said.
Roy Bennett, treasurer-general of the Zimbabwean opposition
party,
told Sapa he believed Smyth would be back in South Africa
soon.
The verdict in his case would be given on Tuesday, Bennett
said.
"He is with his family and friends in Harare at the moment
and will
appear in court tomorrow (Tuesday)."
Smyth was
released after his legal counsel, Innocent Chagonda, asked
for the charges
against him to be dismissed.
During an appearance in court on
Monday, he was charged in terms of
the Immigration Act for overstaying his
welcome in the country.
Smyth was initially
arrested on fraud charges as he was preparing to
ferry MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai to election rallies.
The charges were withdrawn on
Thursday, after the state failed to
bring the case in court within 48 hours,
as stipulated by Zimbabwean law. -
Sapa