Globe and Mail
STEPHANIE NOLEN
From Wednesday's Globe and
Mail
April 1, 2008 at 9:21 PM EDT
HARARE — Zimbabwean President
Robert Mugabe is in the midst of the most
severe crisis of his tempestuous
political career, with factions in his
ZANU-PF party beginning to suggest
that he must leave office.
"It seems there is movement in ZANU-PF, people
reaching out to the
opposition to talk about a deal," said a well-connected
Western diplomat in
the capital. But, the diplomat said, it also would not
be a surprise to see
the government declare victory at any moment, and move
quickly to quash any
dissent.
More than three full days after
Zimbabweans went to the polls, there is no
official winner in either the
parliamentary or presidential vote. The
opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) has repeatedly claimed
victory, but the government says it will
accept none but the official
results released by its electoral commission,
and there is no sign of when
those will come.
The delay is one of two
things. It may be a strategy by the ruling clique in
ZANU-PF to stall the
vote count in order to inflate the party's purported
share before declaring
victory by a narrow margin. Or it may be a reflection
of chaos and frantic
scheming in his inner circle of advisers, who realize
the end has
come.
"Either scenario is very possible right now," the diplomat
said.
A reliable ZANU-PF source told The Globe and Mail of a late-afternoon
meeting at party headquarters in which some losing electoral candidates
openly said that the President must step down. A senior ZANU-PF figure said
that some of those closest to Mr. Mugabe, having seen the electoral results
that confirm his defeat, are fearful for their own future and frantically
discussing if and how to make overtures for some sort of deal with the
opposition.
Last night, Mr. Tsvangirai, in his first public
appearance since the
election, insisted to a gathering of journalists and
diplomats that his
party is not in talks with the government. But in his
cheery insistence that
the MDC will wait for the official tally — "the
people of Zimbabwe have
waited this long for freedom and I think they can
wait far, far longer" —
there was a hint that he believes his party now has
momentum and control.
And in fact, the MDC's tally of votes closely
matches a sophisticated
analysis of poll results done by independent
election monitors.
The official results late last night, with 176 of 210
polling stations
reporting, gave a narrow lead to the opposition — both the
MDC and a
breakaway opposition faction.
Several ZANU-PF insiders told
The Globe and Mail that Mr. Mugabe has refused
to accept the possibility of
a run-off, required if neither candidate has
50-per-cent-plus-one of the
vote, because that would be "humiliating" for a
man who has held the post
for 28 years, and because ZANU-PF, having drained
the last of the country's
foreign-exchange reserves to bribe voters in
Saturday's poll, has no cash
left to mount another campaign.
A key determinant of Mr. Mugabe's other
options is the security and military
apparatuses that have long buttressed
his rule. There is no sign that
Zimbabweans intend to take to the streets to
force him out of power. But Mr.
Mugabe's actions may depend on how much
support he believes he has from the
security forces.
There are signs
that they are split. A retired general, who spoke directly
with air force
chief Perrence Shiri, told The Globe that Mr. Shiri said, "We
cannot just
support him if he has lost." A retired army officer, who remains
well
connected with the forces, said that Mr. Mugabe met with his most
senior
military officers in the early hours of yesterday morning to tell
them he
intended to declare victory and wanted a commitment of their backing
in the
event of unrest. They refused to give it to him, the officer said.
The
senior military staff know that their troops, poorly paid rank-and-file
soldiers who have been hit hard in Zimbabwe's 100,000-per-cent inflation,
"are with the people, not with the President," the officer said. "They said,
'No, we cannot, we will not stand by your side,' " he said, and that
convinced Mr. Mugabe that he needed instead to find a way to negotiate an
exit.
"Because if he is going to announce the results as they are
[with an
opposition victory], he will need some assurances."
Some
regime insiders say that Mr. Mugabe himself is prepared to accept
defeat,
but that some of his security chiefs are blocking him. Augustine
Chihuri, in
particular, the head of the police force, is said to be opposed
to anything
but a declaration of victory.
Two key issues appear to be hardening the
position of members of the ruling
clique, and making them reluctant to
consider any option but a declaration
of victory. The first is potential
prosecution for human-rights abuses and
corruption, either by a new
government or an international body. The second
is their wealth, most of it
acquired through illegal expropriation or
profiteering in the past few
years.
"The question in Zimbabwe now is, What do you own and what do you
lose?"
said a Harare lawyer who acts for several of the most senior members
of
government. "There is a huge system in Zimbabwe now where ZANU-PF
distributes everything. Everything is attached to their name. In fact, it's
not a system, it's a culture."
He said his clients are convinced they
will lose the land they received in
Mr. Mugabe's highly politicized
land-redistribution program, which seized
the vast commercial farms held by
a small number of white farmers and gave
them out, supposedly to landless
black Zimbabweans, but mostly to cronies of
the President.
The
lawyer's view was echoed by a prominent Harare businessman with very
close
ties to the regime. "If Tsvangirai is clear on his land policy, we
won't
have a problem with him, but if he is to give this land back to the
whites,
then we have a problem," he said.
With a report from Shakeman Mugari
New Zimbabwe
By Lindie Whiz
Last updated: 04/02/2008
01:38:08
ZIMBABWE’S opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by
Morgan
Tsvangirai admitted Tuesday that with the partial parliamentary
election
results showing a dead heat with the ruling Zanu PF, seats won by a
rival
MDC faction and independent Tsholotsho MP Jonathan Moyo could play a
major
role in handing them a parliamentary majority.
MDC vice
president Thokozani Khupe told reporters in Bulawayo that their
data
collected at about 80 percent of the 206 contested seats showed they
had
secured 98 seats, Zanu PF 72 with the rival Mutambara-led MDC faction
and
Moyo holding 14 seats.
She said they had no data from the other 20
percent of constituencies –
which might well be won by Zanu
PF.
Flanked by senior MDC officials Eddie Cross and Samuel Sipepa-Nkomo,
Khupe
spoke of “the 14 seats held by our colleagues” – a clear pointer that
both
Zanu PF and her MDC party are considering the possibility none will
have a
sweeping majority, let alone the desired two thirds which would
enable them
to change the constitution.
Khupe said in all but 27
constituencies tallied, the MDC had calculated that
Tsvangirai would secure
56 percent of the vote in the presidential race,
with Mugabe on 37 percent
and former finance minister Simba Makoni a distant
third with 10
percent.
"We are closely monitoring to see if ZEC [Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission] is
reporting exactly what we have, and figures are correct,"
Khuphe told a
press conference.
She said they were concerned by Zanu
PF's big winning margins in Mashonaland
constituencies, whereas the MDC wins
in its urban strongholds appeared
slim – something that can become a factor
in the presidential ballot.
"We need to verify the Mashonaland votes
where for instance Zanu PF is
getting 14 000 and we are getting 1 000. But
it is also important to point
out that in most instances where we have lost
a parliamentary seat; we have
won the presidential vote. We are the outright
winners," Khuphe said.
Cross said there were "serious attempts" by Zanu
PF to rig the presidential
poll, "but the plan ran into number of problems",
among them “the ZEC's
unwillingness to co-operate”.
“They are
reporting the results truthfully,” Cross said.
He said the other
"obstacle" was diplomatic pressure from foreign countries.
Cross claimed
that security chiefs had also informed Mugabe that they would
not
back
him if he declared himself winner and there were public uprisings.
Cross
claimed a “compromise” had been reached to reduce Tsvangirai’s vote to
under
50o percent, in the process triggering a second round of voting
between him
and Mugabe to take place within three weeks.
Cross alleged that Zanu PF
had "carefully selected constituencies where they
have absolute control and
have been successful in ballot stuffing there”.
He added: “They are
preparing themselves for defeat without disgrace.”
The ZEC and Zimbabwe
government have both cautioned the MDC against making
unofficial projections
on voting patterns, fearing that may trigger violence
if the outcome is
different.
New Zimbabwe
By
Lebo Nkatazo
Last updated: 04/01/2008 22:24:32
THE body running Zimbabwe’s
elections moved to allay fears of vote rigging
on Tuesday, by inviting
presidential candidates or their chief election
agents to attend the
collation of election data from across the country.
The Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission (ZEC) also urged Zimbabweans – still
awaiting full
results after voting in general elections on Saturday – to
remain
patient.
“We want to urge voters to remain patient as we go through this
meticulous
process,” the ZEC said amid growing domestic and international
pressure to
release the results of the weekend poll which the opposition
Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) claims it has won.
The ZEC said
in order to preserve the credibility of the presidential
election ballot,
candidates or their election managers were free to attend
the collation of
data from around the country – a clear indication that the
presidential
election outcome could still be days away from being announced.
President
Robert Mugabe, seeking a sixth term, is pitted against his main
rival, MDC
leader Morgan Tsvangirai, and his former finance minister Simba
Makoni, who
defected from Zanu PF.
The United States, Britain, Canada and five other
European countries urged
the ZEC to speedily announce the poll results amid
claims by the MDC that
Zanu PF was planning to rig the outcome.
The
National Association of Non Government Associations (NANGO) said the ZEC’s
delays in announcing the results undermined the credibility of the
polls.
“NANGO still awaits ZEC to honour its commitment to address civil
society
concerns regarding the number of ballot papers printed, the number
of ballot
boxes, the number of voter registration cards and the number of
postal
voters,” NANGO said in a statement.
“This lack of information
combined with the delay in the announcement of the
election results fosters
civil society’s uncertainty and undermines the
credibility of the election
results. NANGO thus calls upon ZEC to ensure to
resolve the delays in the
proclamation of election results.”
Zimbabwe held four joint elections for
senate, parliament, local government
and president for the first time, a
fact the ZEC has seized on to shield
itself from public criticism over
delays in announcing results.
With official election results still
unknown, and a history of vote
rigging, Zimbabwe may not shake
Mugabe
By PETER WORTHINGTON, TORONTO SUN
Wed, April
2, 2008
In Zimbabwe's last presidential vote in 2002, early
indications were that
Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) would win and
oust President Robert Mugabe.
After
several days of vote counting (and rigging), it was announced that
once
again Mugabe had won (56% to 42%), and that the next presidential
election
would be in six years.
No rational person believed that outcome, with the
possible exception of
prime minister Jean Chretien, who supported Mugabe and
opposed Commonwealth
efforts to condemn the tyranny being unleashed on the
unfortunate citizens
of Zimbabwe.
Last weekend Zimbabwe voted again
-- for the president, House of Assembly
and Senate. This time no American,
British or European Union observers were
invited (or allowed) to assess the
honesty, openness or fairness of the
vote.
Instead, 47 "observers"
from the Southern African Development Community
(SADC) and African Union
(AU) -- would team up with observers from Russia,
China and Iran (whose
democratic credentials are legendary) to ensure the
election was "free and
fair."
By yesterday, there were still no "official" results from
voting that had
taken place on March 29.
Britain's Daily Telegraph,
however, reported that Tsvangirai was eight
percentage points ahead of
Mugabe, but unlikely to win an absolute majority,
thus necessitating another
vote in 21 days.
'A FROG'
A third candidate for president, Simba
Makoni, an independent, whom Mugabe
dismissed as "a frog trying to inflate
itself up to the size of an ox", had
enough votes to deny Tsvangirai the
necessary 51%.
So by Zimbabwe rules, as defined by Mugabe, it is no sure
thing that Morgan
Tsvangirai will be president -- especially when the army
and security forces
have said they will not honour a Tsvangirai
victory.
Also, the "counting" of votes is not yet completed (i.e.
"fixed.")
It turns out that for some 6 million registered voters, 9
million ballots
have been printed.
Tsvangirai has claimed that in 28
rural constituencies, 90,000 names were on
voter rolls that could not be
accounted for.
Where 20,000 mail-in, or postal ballots, were necessary,
the Zimbabwe
Electoral Commission had printed 600,000.
The MDC also
says that for 50,000 soldiers, police and civil servants,
600,000 ballots
had been ordered.
As well as giving police and teachers raises leading up
to the vote, Mugabe
also gave 450 cars to medical workers in a "retention
program," as well as
60 buses, 90 ambulances, and 100 generators for
hospitals.
He distributed 200 computers and TV sets. All 48 hours before
the vote.
GIFTS OF FOOD
In the 2002 presidential election, those
in the countryside voting for
Mugabe got gifts of bags of grain and food --
in a country that was then
near starving.
It is worse now, with
inflation touching 100,000%, if you can believe it,
the worst inflation in
the world with unemployment touching 80%.
The tragedy of a corrupt
Marxist tyrant in Zimbabwe is also a tragedy for
Africa in that Zimbabwe's
neighbours not only tolerate what's happening
there, but condone, endorse
and support it.
Mugabe should be an object lesson on how not to run a
country. But most of
Africa is loath to criticize or rebuke him. It's a
horrible example for the
outside world, which otherwise might be inclined to
invest in Africa.
Mugabe blames whites and Britain for Zimbabwe's descent
into economic and
social hell.
When Mugabe became president 28 years
ago, he inherited a self-sufficient,
flourishing country from Ian Smith, and
is on record thanking Smith for
Rhodesia's economic well-being.
The
myth of Mugabe is that he won independence. He didn't. The real warrior
for
independence was Joshua Nkomo, a jungle fighter rather than a
politician,
and a man who eventually saw Mugabe as a greater menace than
those he fought
against.
Los Angeles Times
To avoid the violence that
has torn other African nations, allow Mugabe to
retire in peace.
April 2,
2008
Elections in benighted Zimbabwe have produced three big
surprises. The first
is that 84-year-old President Robert Mugabe dared to
hold them at all. After
28 years in power, Mugabe has beaten a prosperous
country into ruin. Once a
food exporter, Zimbabwe is hungry, inflation is
running at 200,000% and
rising, unemployment is at 80% and life expectancy
has plummeted. Even so,
most expected Mugabe to succeed in rigging the
presidential and
parliamentary elections to secure himself another term. The
second surprise
is that even his iron control of the security forces (and
truckloads of food
delivered to voters) apparently didn't do the trick. The
opposition claims
victory. That's plausible, though impossible to verify
until the election
commission announces final results.
The biggest
surprise of all is that Mugabe has not declared himself the
winner. Rather,
he has reportedly rejected a runoff election, required by
the constitution
if no candidate garners 51% of the vote, as too
humiliating. Unconfirmed and
sometimes conflicting reports suggest that
Mugabe's forces are negotiating
with the opposition for a power-sharing
agreement that would guarantee the
president immunity from prosecution if he
retires.
However unseemly
the prospect of one of Africa's worst strongmen escaping
accountability,
Zimbabwe's best hope lies in retiring Mugabe and his
entourage to a
luxurious villa outside the country; Namibia is often
mentioned. But getting
him there will require international tact. For the
British, in particular,
mum's the word. Each time Whitehall condemns Mugabe,
it gives him occasion
to charge Britain with trying to reimpose colonial
imperialism. Instead, the
international community could quietly signal that
if power-sharing
negotiations are occurring, the world will support any
peaceful settlement
and work with the victors to rebuild the shattered
country. If talks fail --
or if no offer of immunity or refuge is
forthcoming -- Mugabe might well
cling to power and order the military into
the streets. Bloodshed could
ensue. We've seen this movie before, most
recently in Kenya, and the
atrocities that followed will haunt that nation
for years to come. Zimbabwe
is not plagued by Kenya's deep ethnic divisions.
There is still time to
prevent violence.
In the long run, the only solution to Zimbabwe's agony
is good governance.
Whether Mugabe departs gracefully or dies in office
years from now, Zimbabwe
will need international help to end the culture of
kleptocracy and to learn
from bitter experience how better to govern itself.
ABC Australia
Inflation is so high in Zimbabwe that the currency is
meaningless, life
expectancy is less than 40 years and roughly one quarter
of the population
is infected with HIV. (AFP: Alexander Joe)
If
Zimbabwe is lucky enough to achieve a peaceful transition of power, the
new
government's biggest challenge will be the country's disastrous
economy.
Experts estimate that one third of the population - including
many of the
country's professionals - have left the country in the past few
years.
Inflation is so high that the currency is meaningless, life
expectancy is
less than 40 years and roughly one quarter of the population
is infected
with HIV.
Zimbabwe was once known as the bread basket of
Africa but many white farmers
have now emigrated, some to Australia, and
have no intention of returning.
Farm productivity has crashed, with their
land mostly in the hands of Mugabe
cronies.
So how would a new
government get Zimbabwe get back on its feet?
Allistair Norvall was just
one of the thousands of Zimbabwean farmers who
were forced from their
properties in the first years of this century under
President Robert
Mugabe's land resettlement program by the so-called war
veterans.
"The one day I was speaking to one of the war veterans who
was living on one
of the next door farms and he said to me, 'They should
round up all the
white people and throw them into tanks of acid, and that
would be the way to
sort out the white people'," he said.
He arrived
in Australia in 2003 and shortly after, told Radio National's
Street Stories
how his family was terrorised over 18 months.
"They were furious, the war
veterans on the farm, and they said, 'Right, we
are going to kill a white
manager or their children'," Mr Norvall said.
"At that point I came to
the realisation that it wasn't worth dying for and
that we should look for
another position."
Bread basket to basket case
The country that
was once one of the richest in Africa, based on a thriving
agricultural
sector, is now a basket case.
The farmers that fled have taken their
expertise with them and five years
on, Mr Norvall, for one, has no intention
of retuning to his homeland.
"What we experienced in Zimbabwe I'd be
reticent to go and try that out
again. I don't think we'd go back," he
said.
Tracey Mays has a similar story to tell. She is a migration agent
and a
Zimbabwean who has helped many of her countrymen and women come to
Australia.
"Most of the people that I deal with were farmers who had
been chased off
their land by Mugabe's war vets. They had lost everything. A
lot of them got
out with barely their lives," she said.
"They've had
to deal with a lot of trauma for themselves and their families,
and I think
now they look at their lives in Australia and think, at least we
have a
certain future here or as certain as the future can be, whereas going
back
to Zimbabwe, who knows what's going to happen?
"But I don't think right
now there'd be many that would be thinking about
going
back."
Feeding the people
The unwillingness of farmers to return
to Zimbabwe will be just one of the
challenges facing Opposition Leader
Morgan Tsvangirai - if he does succeed
Robert Mugabe.
Rebuilding a
devastated economy will be a massive task.
Dr Geoffrey Hawker is the head
of the Department of Politics and
International Relations at Macquarie
University, and the president of the
African Studies Association.
"He
will call for international support and aid, especially from his
neighbours
in the region," he said.
"Countries like Australia are going to be very
important. We have been in
the past, we can be so again."
But how
will a new government feed its population?
"The only answer I can see is
for the close-by countries - and it's South
Africa that matters here - to
come in with emergency supplies. I mean, I
think it's simply as brutal as
that," Dr Hawker said.
"But the agricultural land is rich. Given a little
bit of time, they can get
the crops growing in, the seeds in and that, but
takes a season or so. In
the short term it is emergency relief.
"I
think that is going to be exceedingly difficult. It is true that most of
those white farmers that were there before are not likely to
return.
"I think what that is going to need is an injection of external
development
assistance and technical help with agricultural extension
services."
Dr Hawker says although Zimbabweans have been leaving the
country, fleeing
into Botswana and South Africa illegally, for example, they
often return.
"But it is true, the professional classes are gone - [to]
Canada, Britain
especially," he said.
"I think a lot of them would
return under a new regime and that is one
bright prospect that really does
have a lot of talent out there in the
diaspora that can come
back."
It is a monumental job to rebuild an economy that has been laid
waste, but
Dr Hawker has hope.
"It's a beautiful country. It's rich,
it's fertile, it's had famously an
educated and able people," he
said.
"I know it doesn't look like it at the moment, but they are the
historical
facts of the matter.
"I know there's a huge job to be done
but if the neighbours are willing, and
you've got to include South Africa
here, then sure, it's going to take time
but it can definitely be
done."
- Adapted from a story first aired on PM, April 2.
Toronto Star
Apr 02, 2008 04:30
AM
Craig Timberg
Darlington Majonga
The Washington
Post
HARARE–Some members of Zimbabwe's jittery ruling elite have
concluded that
President Robert Mugabe must step down after apparently
losing an election
last weekend and have begun reaching out to opposition
leaders to resolve
the four-day-old political standoff, according to ruling
party members,
diplomats and political observers.
Mugabe, 84, has
made no public appearance since Saturday, when he pledged
not to rig the
results and to abide by the vote totals. But behind the
scenes, his future
is the subject of wrenching discussions inside his ruling
party, the sources
said.
Though the sources said unofficial contacts between ruling party
and
opposition members were underway, opposition leaders repeatedly and
vehemently denied there were any discussions, or that there would be any
deal with Mugabe before the election results were officially
published.
The presidential election has so far yielded no official
results, and
yesterday the electoral commission, controlled by Mugabe
allies, urged
patience. But a growing list of indicators, including a
rigorous statistical
model based on a sampling of publicly posted vote
tallies, now points to a
victory by long-time opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai, showing he got
something near 50 per cent of the vote, over
Mugabe's roughly 42 per cent.
An independent candidate got 8 per
cent.
A Mugabe loss, if confirmed, would end 28 years of unbroken rule in
which he
took the nation to the pinnacle of African progress before plunging
it into
one of the continent's worst political and economic
crises.
The outpouring of voter rejection Saturday appears to have
overwhelmed the
many political advantages Mugabe enjoyed, including almost
total control
over the flow of information and voter rolls that
systematically excluded
many of his most fervent detractors.
"It's
clear that (Mugabe) has lost the vote," said Dumisani Muleya, a
political
reporter at the Zimbabwe Independent newspaper. In interviews,
several
senior advisers to Mugabe had told him that "they're trying to find
some way
to resolve this issue."
Perhaps the most important group in the
discussions is the leadership of
Mugabe's historically loyal security
apparatus.
The "securocrats," including top members of the police,
military and
intelligence service, reportedly are split over whether to act
to keep
Mugabe in power or to urge him to accept defeat.
A retired
general, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the air force
chief has
refused to back military action to protect Mugabe, while the
police force is
steadfast behind him.
Among the immediate questions is whether Zimbabwe
will conduct a runoff, as
required by the constitution if no candidate tops
the 50 per cent mark.
Tsvangirai asserted at a news conference last night
that he had passed that
point in the first round, making a runoff
unnecessary. But the independent
monitoring group that analyzed the posted
vote tallies projected his victory
as falling barely short of a
majority.
Mugabe is said to be reluctant to engage in a second round of
voting, which
could lead to a wider margin of defeat by consolidating
opposition to his
rule, according to sources and news
reports.
Discussions in the ruling camp were said to be turning yesterday
to the vast
list of decisions that a Tsvangirai government would quickly
face.
Among them: Would he pursue criminal action against Mugabe for
possible
crimes against humanity? Would he purge a military built more to
battle
Mugabe's enemies than outside forces? Would he reverse the land
seizures
that began in 2000 and return commercial farms to their previous
owners,
most of them white?
A ruling party businessman, who spoke on
condition of anonymity, said a
Tsvangirai victory might be accepted if he
agreed not to take away farms
that Mugabe had doled out, to peasants as well
as political cronies.
"If he gives this land back to the whites, then we
have a problem with him,"
the businessman said.
Analyst John Makumbe,
a longtime Mugabe critic, said anxiety within the
ruling party was running
high.
"They are not really unified," he said, predicting that Mugabe's
departure
was imminent. "They know they cannot make it. They know he cannot
survive a
second round" of voting.
Liberal MP Keith Martin, who has
visited Zimbabwe several times in the last
five years, said Canada would
press the opposition to offer Mugabe safe
conduct into exile and legal
immunity.
"That's why he's been hanging around: fear of prosecution,"
said Martin
(Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca).
The political stalemate has
captivated Zimbabweans, especially in Harare,
the capital, where a blizzard
of rumours dominated an anxious day of
waiting.
The president's fall
would be exceeded, in terms of historic importance
here, only by the end of
white supremacist rule in 1980, when the nation was
called Rhodesia and
faced a tenacious guerrilla force led by Mugabe.
He has ruled the country
ever since.
With files from The Canadian Press
Toronto Star
Opposition leader has overcome internal rivalries, ruthless
government
crackdown
Apr 02, 2008 04:30 AM
HARARE–Some people see
Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition
Movement for Democratic
Change party, as a symbol of the struggle against
President Robert Mugabe
and his authoritarian government.
Although Tsvangirai (pronounced
CHANG-guh-rye) has missed a number of
opportunities, political analysts say
he is still seen as a hero for
standing up to Mugabe – the country's only
president since independence from
Britain in 1980.
Even though
official results haven't been released, 56-year-old Tsvangirai
spoke as if
he already had been declared president.
"For years we have trod a journey
of hunger, pain, torture and brutality,"
he said at a news conference
yesterday. "Today, we face a new challenge of
governing and rehabilitating
our beloved country, the challenge of giving
birth to a new Zimbabwe founded
on restoration not retribution, on love not
war.''
The self-taught
son of bricklayer, Tsvangirai burst on to the political
scene in 1999 when
he founded the labour-backed MDC.
He led the party to a stunning
near-victory the following year in
parliamentary elections, claiming 57 of
120 seats.
Tsvangirai lost a 2002 presidential election to Mugabe, a poll
widely
believed to have been rigged by the government. Mugabe rejected the
charge
and accused Tsvangirai and his supporters of being stooges for white
racists.
A split in his MDC in 2005 seriously dented his image and
standing, and
Tsvangirai was at risk of fading from the political scene
until last year
when he and other opposition leaders were arrested and
allegedly assaulted
after an anti-government rally.
His supporters
say he suffered a fractured skull after a brutal beating in
police
custody.
Footage of a badly bruised Tsvangirai, his eye swollen and head
partly
shaved, intensified international condemnation of Mugabe's then
27-year
rule.
Shortly after, a Los Angeles Times editorial said
Tsvangirai stood a chance
of "becoming for Zimbabwe what Nelson Mandela was
for South Africa."
Some economic analysts remain skeptical of
Tsvangirai's ability to revive
Zimbabwe's economy, saying he has neither the
experience nor the policies to
do so.
Tsvangirai climbed from trade
unionist to potential president by overcoming
internal MDC rivalries and a
severe government crackdown. His determined
optimism has repeatedly boosted
his supporters' morale despite the pressure.
The opposition leader's
earthy style – focusing on the basic problems
Zimbabweans face amid a
deepening economic crisis – also has compared well
with what some see as
Mugabe's lofty, combative and often remote leadership.
While Mugabe, 84,
has stuck faithfully to his old anti-British liberation
struggle
credentials, Tsvangirai has concentrated on how the MDC would
revive the
battered economy in what was once one of Africa's most prosperous
nations.
At his peak, on the eve of presidential elections in 2002,
Tsvangirai was
considered by his supporters and some Western governments as
Zimbabwe's only
hope of pulling out of a spiral of economic decline and
social unrest.
Since losing that poll and another round of parliamentary
elections in 2005,
Tsvangirai has fought an increasingly disorganized battle
that has seen his
party's street protests crushed and its leaders
harassed.
Tsvangirai was charged with treason in 2002 and accused of
plotting to have
Mugabe assassinated, but was acquitted of the charges.
Political analysts
say Tsvangirai has gained valuable experience in recent
years, especially in
his relations with the outside world and through his
willingness to take the
fight against Mugabe into the
streets.
From the Star's wire services
Christian Science Monitor
Zimbabwe's main opposition leader and President Mugabe's government
deny
behind-the-scenes talks about a power-sharing deal in the wake of
Saturday's
elections.
By Scott Baldauf | Staff writer of The Christian
Science Monitor
and | and a Contributor
from the April 2, 2008
edition
Reporter Scott Baldauf discusses behind-the-scenes talks
about a
power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe.
Johannesburg, South Africa; and
Harare, Zimbabwe - Behind-the-scenes
negotiations between Zimbabwe's ruling
party and the main opposition party
of Morgan Tsvangirai are under way in
the wake of Saturday's elections,
according to several sources familiar with
the discussions.
Under a proposed deal, President Robert Mugabe would
step down, allowing his
ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC)
to share power in a government of national unity, a
senior MDC official
confirmed Tuesday evening.
The official said that
military chiefs, who are allied to Mr. Mugabe and
recently said they would
not salute Mr. Tsvangirai if he was elected
president, had approached the
opposition with the proposal of a national
unity government.
"Such
overtures have been made, but they are still in their infancy. Our
leader
[Tsvangirai] is skeptical about Mugabe's overtures because the old
man is a
skimmer and is cunning," said the official, who spoke on condition
of
anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
A US State
Department official said the talks followed projections showing
Tsvangirai
would beat Mugabe in the election but fall short of the 51
percent of votes
needed to avoid a runoff, according to Reuters.
Both Mugabe's government
and Tsvangirai, however, denied Tuesday night that
such talks are taking
place.
If, in fact, Mugabe is negotiating his way out of office, it will
be a sign
of how far both the 84-year-old liberation leader and his
once-powerful
party have fallen.
A slow, decade-long collapse of the
economy – under the weight of Western
sanctions and self-destructive
economic policies at home – has turned Mugabe
into a deeply unpopular
leader. Even Mugabe's staunchest supporters, the
military and security
agencies, seem to have lost the will to rig elections
in his favor or to
enforce his will on the streets, observers say.
"My sense is that they
were unable to rig these elections, in part because
of a lack of capacity
and motivation by ZANU-PF officials and the security
agencies," says Chris
Maroleng, a Zimbabwe expert at the Institute for
Security Studies in Tshwane
as Pretoria, South Africa, is now called.
Key reforms prevented vote
rigging
Electoral reforms, negotiated under the leadership of the South
African
delegation to the Southern African Development Community, forced
electoral
officials to count votes at polling stations and to announce the
results at
the polling stations, Mr. Maroleng adds.
This prevented
ZANU-PF officials from stuffing ballots later on at the
central counting
offices in Harare. Once the votes were counted, Mugabe's
downfall was
literally written on the wall.
In a press conference on Tuesday night,
Tsvangirai declared victory of more
than 50 percent of the vote and said
that the tallies announced by the
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission jibed with
MDC's own figures from the polling
stations. Tsvangirai joined other MDC
spokesmen in denying any negotiations
were taking place with ZANU-PF, adding
that any such negotiations could only
take place once ZEC had announced the
final results.
'A new Zimbabwe'?
"The vote on Saturday was a vote
for change, for jobs, and to build a new
Zimbabwe," said Tsvangirai, the
former union leader, at a press conference
in Harare. "There is no way the
MDC can enter discussions with ZANU-PF until
ZEC announces the
results."
Even so, diplomats in Harare confirmed that negotiations were
in fact going
on. An African diplomat, who refused to be named, said the
deal had been
brokered by South Africa, but added that it was unlikely that
the MDC would
agree, considering Mugabe's political history of reneging on
agreements.
"Remember in 1987, Mugabe lured [the rival militia movement]
ZAPU to form a
government of national unity but went on to 'swallow' the
party," says the
diplomat. "Tsvangirai is old enough to remember
that."
Experts say it would be naive to assume that Mugabe or the ZANU-PF
will
simply hand over the keys to the government after losing an election.
These
negotiations, if they are occurring, will be part of a longer process
of
ensuring that ZANU-PF continues to play a role in Zimbabwe's government,
even if the MDC takes power.
"I think that Robert Mugabe has lost the
election, but he has not lost
completely the House of Assembly," says Gordon
Moyo, director of Bulawayo
Agenda, a coalition of civil society groups in
Bulawayo. "So in these
negotiations, he may be telling MDC: 'You will not be
able to pass any major
constitutional changes through Parliament. We are
going to block you.' It
would be better to have a peaceful
transition."
• A journalist who could not be named for security reasons
contributed from
Harare.
New York Times
By THE NEW
YORK TIMES
Published: April 2, 2008
HARARE, Zimbabwe — President Robert
Mugabe’s decades-old control of Zimbabwe
seemed to erode further on Tuesday,
as diplomats, analysts and opposition
members contended that talks were
under way for the 84-year-old leader to
step down after trailing in
Saturday’s election.
Morgan Tsvangirai, who appears to be leading in
Zimbabwe’s presidential
election, speaking to reporters in Harare on
Tuesday.
Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition candidate who appears to be ahead
in the
voting, denied in an evening address that his party had been in
discussions
over Mr. Mugabe’s resignation, saying he would “not enter into
any deal”
before the vote results were officially announced.
But his
denial was at odds with a flurry of accounts that the two sides were
having
discussions about a possible transfer of power.
The nation’s election
commission has yet to release any results in the
presidential race, only a
steady trickle of outcomes in contests for
Parliament. But a projection by
an independent civic group, based on data
from polling stations, gives Mr.
Tsvangirai a lead of about 49.4 percent to
41.8 percent, raising the
prospect of either outright defeat for Mr. Mugabe
or a runoff should neither
one win a majority.
Indeed, The Herald, Zimbabwe’s state-run newspaper,
reported Wednesday
morning that “the pattern of results in the presidential
election show that
none of the candidates will garner more than 50 percent
of the vote, forcing
a re-run.”
Mr. Mugabe, who has governed Zimbabwe
with an iron grip for the past 28
years, has allowed the uncertainty about
the election to continue for more
than three days, defying widespread
expectations that he would declare
himself the winner rather than relinquish
power.
The fact that he and the country’s security forces have so far
remained on
the sidelines hinted at the possibility this impoverished nation
of about 12
million, with its collapsed economy and nearly worthless
currency, could be
on the verge of historic change.
Mr. Mugabe was
advised by the leaders of the armed forces to engineer a
second-round
runoff, according to a Western diplomat who spoke on condition
of anonymity.
But Mr. Mugabe, one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders,
responded that it
would be a humiliation, the diplomat said.
A resignation by Mr. Mugabe
would be a stunning turnabout in a country where
he has been accused of
consistently manipulating election results to
maintain his lock on
power.
Even Mr. Tsvangirai’s address to the nation, in which he
confidently
predicted victory, stood in a stark contrast with the state of
the
opposition just a year ago, when Mr. Tsvangirai and 49 other
antigovernment
protesters were sent to a Harare hospital after being
arrested and beaten by
the police for holding a protest meeting.
“The
chiefs of staff are talking to Morgan and are trying to put into place
transitional structures,” said John Makumbe, a political analyst and an
adviser to a coalition of civic groups. Mr. Mugabe “is dependent on the
state’s coercive apparatus, and if these chiefs tell him this is the way
things are, he doesn’t have a leg to stand on.”
“The chiefs of staff
are not split; they are loyally at Mugabe’s side,” Mr.
Makumbe said. “But
they are not negotiating for Mr. Mugabe. They are
negotiating for
themselves. They are negotiating about reprisals and
recriminations and blah
blah blah. They are doing it for their own
security.”
A businessman
with strong associations with the ruling party, the Zimbabwe
African
National Union-Patriotic Front, said the military chiefs discussed
several
options with the humbled president, including the out-and-out
rigging of the
election, moving along to a rigged runoff and even possibly
“eliminating”
Mr. Tsvangirai.
Harare, the capital, was abuzz on Tuesday with such
so-called insider
accounts, each one undoubtedly taking new plot twists as
they went from
secondhand to thirdhand and further on.
A variety of
people were included as intermediaries between the two sides or
as
compromise candidates for vice president.
South Africa’s president, Thabo
Mbeki, was frequently mentioned as a broker
between the sides, and some
versions had Mr. Mbeki in the city.
The sheer variety of the accounts
cast some doubt on them all. While most
renditions had President Mugabe
relinquishing power, others said he was
stubbornly hanging on and about to
appear on TV to declare victory.
Tendai Biti, the secretary general of
the Movement for Democratic Change,
Mr. Tsvangirai’s party, called the
stories about secret talks “all rubbish.”
He added, “Assuming there were
talks, I wouldn’t tell you. But there were no
talks.”
Neither President
Mugabe nor Mr. Tsvangirai had made a public appearance
since election day
until Mr. Tsvangirai’s Tuesday evening press conference.
He said he did not
mind the tedious wait for results: “Robert Mugabe has
said he’s an honest
man. I hope that when the results are announced it’s a
true reflection of
the vote and that there’s no reason to investigate
fraudulent
activities.”
In 2002, Mr. Tsvangirai said he was robbed of the presidency
when a
last-minute deluge of votes fell Mr. Mugabe’s way.
This time,
the two sides agreed that the results at each polling station
would be
posted once the votes were counted. Observers for the Movement for
Democratic Change photographed each tallying of the votes, and the party’s
early calculations of the vote gave it a lead of 60 percent to 30
percent.
“Morgan came and told us that Mugabe will concede,” said
Lovemore Madhuku,
who heads the National Constitutional Assembly, a
collection of civic
groups. Mr. Tsvangirai briefed its leaders before his
press conference. “He
believes he has won. But what if Mugabe also believes
he has won?”
Officially, most results for the 210 Parliament seats have
been announced:
Mr. Mugabe’s party has so far won 79 seats, compared with 77
for Mr.
Tsvangirai’s, and 5 for other candidates.
Many Zimbabweans
have known no other leader except Robert Mugabe. He was a
hero of the
nation’s independence struggle against white minority rule, and
he was
hailed during his early years in power for policies of racial
conciliation
and the health and education advances he had brought to those
denied them
under colonial rule.
But Mr. Mugabe has also been a ruthless autocrat who
has unleashed campaigns
of murder and terror against his opponents, analysts
and critics contend.
In 2000, he ordered the takeover of white-owned
farms, a decision that cast
Zimbabwe into an economic free fall that seems
to have no end. Inflation now
runs at 100,000 percent.
About a
quarter of the population has fled. Most of those remaining behind
are
unemployed. Zimbabwe is a paradigm of destitution.
“People are dying for
change,” said Mark Tichagarika, a driver in Harare.
“Everyone is talking
about the election, at work, in the bus queues, in the
shops. When will we
finally get a change?”
He considered his own question. “Only the old man
knows.”
Graham Bowley contributed reporting from New York.
Oh My News
Appeal for
restoring democracy in Zimbabwe
Masimba Biriwasha
Published 2008-04-02 18:14 (KST)
India's National Alliance of People's
Movements (NAPM) has condemned the
"delay tactics" in announcing election
results that are being employed by
President Robert Mugabe's
government.
"While upholding the democratic right to dissent and protest,
we denounce
and condemn this effort by Mugabe to hold back the election
results," said
Dr Sandeep Pandey, the national convener of NAPM and Ramon
Magsaysay awardee
in 2002.
"Zimbabwe has been reeling under the
repressive and undemocratic actions of
President Robert Mugabe over the past
28 years," he said.
Despite indications that the presidential and
parliamentary elections held
recently were won by the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change, putting
to an end, at long last, the dictatorial rule
of 84-year-old President
Mugabe, there's been a suspicious and prolonged
delay in the announcement of
the voting results.
"The move towards
democracy in Zimbabwe is held in suspension. People's
movements in India
demand that the election results be announced at the
earliest, and not
tampered with," said Magsaysay.
All over the blogosphere, bloggers are
calling for Zimbabweans to exercise
peace and calm till the results are
announced so as not to give Mugabe to
unleash violence against the people
using the state's armed forces.
"It might be that in the dark, you
reconcile yourself to the idea that your
light is the only one in the
darkness, and that it must be hidden behind
your eyes because the winds
would blow it out," said Martin Meenagh on
sokwanele.com.
"Because
there are more people like you than you realize and there is more
sense to
what you want than you might see in the shadow of evil. One day,
your faith
in your free Zimbabwe will take wing," he added.
Results of elections
held on Saturday in Zimbabwe are yet to be announced,
raising levels of
tension and anticipation within the country and
internationally.
President Mugabe's 28 year rule has all but crippled
the country, reducing
it to a laughing stock throughout the world. The
country is currently
experiencing the worst inflation rate in the world, now
pegged at over
150,000 percent.
According to the UN, Zimbabwe has the
lowest life expectancy in the world.
Female life expectancy stands at 34
years, while for males it is 37 years.
The political and fallout in
Zimbabwe has had a ripple bulldozer-like impact
on other sectors in the
country that whoever is declared the winner will
have their work cut out for
them.
However, it is clear that retaining Mugabe as the leader of the
country will
only result in more of the same, meaning more suffering for the
majority of
Zimbabweans.
Many Zimbabweans, particularly in urban
areas and in the Diaspora are
convinced that if Mugabe steps down, the
country will be able to get back on
its feet.
"It's clear that
[Mugabe] has lost the vote," said Dumisani Muleya, a
political reporter at
the Zimbabwe Independent newspaper.
But as it is, the long-suffering
people of Zimbabwe will have to wait as
patiently as they have wait for the
fortunes of the country to turnaround
under the leadership of
Mugabe.
It's amazing how one man's hand can be a grip on a whole people's
destiny
for so long.
Toronto Star
With violence in the air,
everyone's wondering how the military will react
to election
Apr 02,
2008 04:30 AM
Olivia Ward
Foreign Affairs Reporter
As Zimbabwe's
strongman President Robert Mugabe clings to power amid
widespread claims
that the opposition won last Saturday's poll, the fate of
the destitute
country lies in the hands of its security forces.
Mugabe's friends and
foes fear the official results could touch off
explosive violence if he
orders a crackdown on the opposition, or protesters
rise up and clash with
security forces.
The result of the back room debate among top security
officials is now a
life and death matter for Zimbabwe's future.
"The
military has an enormous stake in the outcome," said Zimbabwe-born
security
expert Knox Chitiyo on the phone from London.
"Behind the scenes there
are moderates who believe it's better for Mugabe to
step down and avoid a
bloodbath. And hardliners who are ready to crush the
enemy once and for
all."
Mugabe and military officials have said they would not accept a
victory for
the opposition, opening the way for a bloody crackdown and
street protests.
However, political analyst John Makumbe told Associated
Press that he had
learned from military sources they would respect the
results of the
elections.
But, says Chitiyo, who heads the Royal
United Services Institute's Africa
Program, "the country is highly
militarized, with the military having a hand
in everything from the grain
marketing board to the banks. They are thinking
not just about loyalty to
Mugabe, but their own survival."
Members of the security forces have also
benefited far more than ordinary
Zimbabweans from the redistribution of
formerly white-owned land, a plan
that had disastrous results for the
economy.
Reports of talks between Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main
opposition
party, and a former army chief hinted that Mugabe might accept a
deal to
hand over power peacefully without prosecution for alleged crimes
ranging
from brutal repression to corruption and mismanagement that has
bankrupted
the once prosperous southern African nation.
But both
Tsvangirai and the Zimbabwean government have denied that they were
negotiating the resignation of Mugabe, a one-time independence hero who has
ruled the country for 28 years.
In a New York Times opinion piece
yesterday, South African journalist Heidi
Holland – granted a rare interview
with Mugabe – described the 84-year-old
autocrat as a "precariously balanced
figure" who is capable of sacrificing
the welfare of the country for his own
sense of righteousness.
Canadian Jim MacKinnon, who has visited Zimbabwe
regularly for the past
seven years, said that under Mugabe, violence has
become predictable.
"In 2003, there was a women's organization that held
a demonstration on
Valentine's Day and handed out roses to the police. It
was completely
non-political, but they broke it up with tear
gas."
MacKinnon, the southern Africa co-ordinator for Oxfam Canada, said
that the
presence of former ruling party minister Simba Makoni as a
presidential
candidate helped to keep violence in check during the
campaign.
"Makoni had a certain amount of the security forces behind him,
and it was
very clear they were not behind Tsvangirai."
What would
happen if Tsvangirai were declared winner is unsettling his
supporters, as
well as Mugabe's. While no official results have been issued
on the
presidential poll, Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, and a
split-off opposition party, have a narrow lead over Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the
parliamentary voting.
Before the election, police chief Augustin
Chihuri said: "We will not allow
any puppets to take charge," a reference to
Britain, which some of
Zimbabwe's pro-independence allies blame for plotting
to overthrow Mugabe.
"At this point, our gains should never be reversed,"
Chihuri said.
For many of Zimbabwe's 12 million impoverished people, the
gains are few and
dwindling as inflation tops an unprecedented 100,000 per
cent, and those
with jobs have to choose between buying food or walking to
work.
Zimbabwean security expert Martin Rupiya told the BBC that,
although many in
the security forces are loyal to Mugabe, 30 per cent or
fewer are actually
politicized. "The rest are suffering with the
people."
icWales
And the consequences have been shocking
Apr 2 2008 by Tomos
Livingstone, Western Mail
Peter Hain, the former anti-apartheid
campaigner and Cabinet Minister, calls
for the world to act now to help
Zimbabwe
AS BRITAIN’S Africa Minister eight years ago I recall being
asked what would
happen to Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe. It will get worse
and worse was my
prediction, unfortunately proving distressingly and
horribly true.
Mugabe has stolen elections before. But, in this latest
one, the verdict of
his long-suffering people has been resounding which is
why announcement of
the official results have been held back so that they
can be moulded.
But no amount of poll rigging (including using dead
voters), intimidation or
brutality against opponents could hide the bravery
of Zimbabweans in
resolutely voting against him, as confirmed by independent
monitors.
For the first time Zimbabweans could see results as they were
posted up in
their own community. For the first time, they have been able to
safeguard
the ballot by sending results to independent monitoring centres
which show a
clear win for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.
This
is a moment of truth for its African neighbours. An African solution to
this
African crisis is needed now, even more than before, when prevarication
and
complicity from African leaders has enabled Mugabe to persist with his
despotic rule.
Though embarrassed by Mugabe, they have deferred to
him as the heroic
liberation leader of decades ago rather than the corrupt
tyrant he became.
In so doing they have turned their backs on the people. It
was left to
Nelson Mandela and Archbishop Tutu to give voice to
principle.
For me this has been painfully poignant. I was thrilled at
Mugabe’s 1980
landslide win in the country’s first ever democratic election
after
generations of racist white minority rule.
But over the past 10
years especially, Mugabe has savagely prostituted the
freedom struggle he
once led so ably. With murder, torture, maiming,
incarceration and
intimidation of opponents, he copied the very techniques
of repression used
against him.
This was once the jewel in Africa’s crown, a beautiful and
hospitable land
to visit, with the highest standards of education on the
continent, good
infrastructure, and a strong economy.
Yet Mugabe has
all but destroyed the country, turning a booming agricultural
sector – a
breadbasket not just for his people but surrounding nations too –
into a
barren wasteland, with food imported and its distribution manipulated
to
garner political support for the ruling clique.
With incompetence and
corruption institutionalised, inflation has surged to
a mind-boggling
100,000% (the necessary currency notes for bread today being
heavier than
the loaf itself). Unemployment is a staggering 80%, power cuts
are rife and
starvation widespread.
The impact on neighbours has also been
destabilising. Millions of refugees
have escaped into South Africa and other
nations, with all the pressures
that means.
His black tyranny is an
ugly stain on Africa, almost as abhorrent as the
white tyranny of apartheid
I and my parents fought so hard to defeat.
What people have been
unwilling to acknowledge about Mugabe is that he has
never been susceptible
to diplomacy. I recall trying to disabuse some of my
Foreign Office
officials of this, and also arguing with friends in southern
African
governments.
The truth is that Zimbabwe represents a colossal failure of
diplomacy – for
Britain, for South Africa, the EU, UN, Commonwealth – for
everyone
concerned. And the consequences have been shocking.
Already
there are reports that Opposition MDC leaders have gone underground
because
their lives are in danger. The MDC say they are determined to avoid
another
Kenya, and have urged their supporters to remain calm – despite
increasing
provocation from Mugabe’s forces. A prominent MDC leader and
newly-elected
MP, Mrs Sekai Holland (a grandmother who was savagely beaten
last year, and
who is now in hiding) sent out this message, “Non-violence is
our battle
cry. That will empower us to deliver the Zimbabwe we want.”
The
international community must insist that the democratic verdict is
upheld
and that there is an orderly transfer of power, with Mugabe and his
elite
offered a safe passage if they wish. This requires global engagement
from
the United Nations in New York to Beijing (which has been bankrolling
Mugabe
as it buys up the country’s rich resources).
Above all, it requires
Zimbabwe’s neighbours in the Southern Africa
Development Community to engage
and speak with the same voice of democracy
as should Europe and the UN.
Pretoria could if necessary pull the plug on
the regime by calling in debts
and banning economic assistance.
Meanwhile there should be an
international movement of solidarity with
Zimbabweans and against Mugabe,
both to support local resistance and to
lobby governments and global
institutions.
The people of Zimbabwe need our help. And they need it
now.
Peter Hain is MP for Neath