Zimbabwe Mirror - Comment
MDC playing "heads I win
tails you lose"
By Zvenyika E. Mugari
There are
many different hypotheses that have been given by different
political
commentators as to what really led to the opposition MDC routing
the ruling
party Zanu PF in the just ended by-elections in Kuwadzana
and
Highfield.
Efforts to seek comments from Dr Nathan
Shamuyarira on how the party
explains its defeat in the recent by-elections
were unsuccessful. Dr Eddison
Zvobgo, however, declined to comment saying
that commenting on why Zanu-PF
lost to MDC would amount to "working against
my party".
"Why don't you ask Jonathan Moyo or Chinotimba himself?"
he said. Some
people the Sunday Mirror spoke to came up with different
theories to explain
Zanu-PF's defeat. One view was that the credentials and
political profiles
of the individual contestants were a key factor. But the
trouncing of
Munyaradzi Gwisai in Highfield seemed to show that the
individual's worth
did not count for much in those elections.
Others were of the view that the anti-Mugabe sentiment was most
decisive. But
this theory is also problematic in the sense that Zanu-PF
managed to win in
some of the previous by-elections. Yet others placed the
blame squarely on
campaign strategy. For example, were the Zanu-PF
candidates able to
articulate party policies well enough at their campaign
meetings, instead of
concentrating on dolling out mealie-meal packs to
prospective voters (that is
if the allegations doing the rounds these days
were anything to go by)? Did
they understand those policies themselves? How
did they explain the economic
hardships people now face in urban areas? What
has their party been doing
about it and what does it plan to do in the
future to tackle those problems?
One stands to be corrected, but one gets
this uneasy feeling that these
vexing questions remained largely unanswered
by the time people went to the
polls. While each of the above factors may
have contributed to the overall
result one gets the impression that there
are broader issues at play here,
especially when this is considered in the
light of some Zanu-PF victories in
previous by-elections. So what really
went wrong this time? What did Zanu-PF
do or not do right that cost it
electoral victory in these by-elections in
particular? What is most probable
is that Zanu-PF is doing something right.
It has adopted a development
policy with a rural bias, a people-centred and
people-driven development
policy. This is quite evident in the agrarian
reform policy, which has
sought to channel more economic resources to the
farming sector, which
includes the rural areas. A very recent example of this
policy shift was the
hiking of producer prices for the staple maize crop from
$28 000 to $130
000. Some sections of society were bound to be hurt by such a
policy thrust.
The urban-based, white-owned and controlled industrial
establishment was one
such casualty of this policy. The trickle down effect
of this policy meant
that life would be a lot harsher for the urban peasant
now than it was
before. The urban peasant is underfed, underemployed,
under-productive,
underpaid, under whatever else you can think of. And
naturally, this is an
angry electorate less likely to be appeased with a few
bags of maize meal.
The urban electorate holds the incumbent government
accountable for all
their suffering occasioned with the economic decline. It
was to such
disconsolate crowds that Chinotimba and Mutasa went laden with
bags full of
yellow maize meal, it is alleged, to woo them for their votes.
If this is
true then, the electorate, unfortunate for them, proved less
gullible. They
knew that this sudden and "targeted" charitable disposition of
Chinotimba
and Mutasa would not last long enough beyond the election date. So
they
accepted the donations but voted otherwise. The Herald on Tuesday, April
1
led with a front-page story headlined: "MDC wins by-elections",
followed
with a subhead, "Results show Zanu-PF's consistency by maintaining
its
support base". Though acknowledging MDC's victory, the story was really
at
pains to prove that the polling results actually showed that Zanu-PF
was
gaining in popularity in the urban constituencies and that MDC's
popularity
was waning. On the other hand, other publications appeared to
celebrate the
election outcome for the MDC. The question to ask is did the
election
results come as a surprise to Zanu-PF or did the party anticipate
the poor
show in those urban constituencies? If the party anticipated the
poor
results what explanation does it have for its poor performance? Given
that
there are more by-elections lined up for Zengeza and Harare
Central
constituencies, are we likely to see different campaign tactics
being
employed by the ruling party to win those elections? The Zanu-PF
candidates
misjudged the mood of the electorate. They ought to have known
better. On
the other hand, the opposition MDC, by calling for a stayaway on
the eve of
that election and by threatening to call another stayaway if the
outcome of
the election was not in their favour, amounted to declaring a,
"heads I win
and tails you lose" double dealing. The opposition has the
advantage that it
can act irresponsibly and indulge in acts, which sabotage
and further
cripple the economy (stayaways and torching of buses) and still
use the
negative consequences of their actions to turn the electorate against
those
in government. The opposition enjoys a double advantage in that
when
government responds, as indeed any other government should do under
those
circumstances, by sending the police to quell the demonstrations,
the
opposition cries foul. "The government is abusing the repressive
state
apparatus to deny us the exercise of our democratic right," they say.
When
things go haywire in the economy, partly due to such actions, again
they
blame the government. But may I disabuse my friends and fellow citizens
of
Harare of the belief that Tsvangirayi would be more benign in
handling
protestors against his own rule or misrule once the whole state
machinery is
placed under his beck and call. What is most likely, he would
unleash the
police force on the people with greater zeal and enthusiasm. The
lesson
which Zanu-PF should learn from these election outcomes is that the
urban
electorate, though poor, is far from naïve and gullible. Those elected
to
represent the party should be able to articulate party policy in terms
of
how such policy will address the practical short term and long term
concerns
of the electorate. Where things are not going on well, as is the
case right
now, it serves no useful purpose to pretend they are. It is much
better to
accept where their policies went wrong and explain what corrective
measures
will be put in place to arrest the situation from further
deterioration. If
they sincerely believe things went wrong due to no fault of
their party then
they should clearly and most emphatically point out the
source of the social
ills afflicting society. All having been said and done,
the voters want to
know why they should not vote MDC, but most importantly
why they should vote
Zanu-PF. Sloganeering alone won't do the trick.