The ZIMBABWE Situation | Our
thoughts and prayers are with Zimbabwe - may peace, truth and justice prevail. |
Bankers say the latest fall in the Zimbabwe dollar is largely caused by
private sector demand for foreign currency to import fuel.
Until recently, the government was the only legal importer of fuel, but it
has no foreign currency reserves, and has relaxed regulations to allow privately
owned companies and individuals to bring fuel into the country.
Gasoline and diesel fuel are now available to those who can pay in foreign
currency up to 60 cents a liter, about five times more than what it cost when it
was widely available in local money.
People can no longer buy fuel from gas stations, and instead, have to go to a
variety of new outlets, sometimes in the back yards of private homes.
To ease the acute shortage of bank notes, the government said Thursday it
will start issuing travelers checks in large denominations. Starting Friday, the
checks will be accepted as legal tender in Zimbabwe, but will not be valid
abroad.
Meanwhile, the country's economic crisis continues to deepen. In the last
five days, tobacco growers have twice canceled sales of their crop at the annual
auctions, because they are paid at the official rate of 880 Zimbabwe dollars to
one U.S. dollar. Even though tobacco crops have been dramatically reduced,
earnings from tobacco exports contribute a large share to Zimbabwe's foreign
currency reserves.
Zimbabwe's currency went into free fall
Thursday, losing one third of its value since Tuesday, and currently changing
hands at one U.S. dollar to about 6,000 Zimbabwe dollars.
But the councillor hinted at deep divisions among the
MDC councillors,
saying many were pleading to comply with Chombo’s
directives, fearing they
would risk being fired if they did not.
Brian Kagoro, co-ordinator of Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, conceded
that
Chombo was spoiling for a fight and would sack the entire council if
they
chose to forcefully resist his directives.
"Chombo is baiting the
MDC so that he has someone to fight. He wants
to be ZANU PF’s new champion,"
said Kagoro.
He said the MDC councillors had to bear in mind that
they could not
enjoy the "comfort of NGOs (non-governmental
organisations)".
"If they choose to be in active defiance, they
will be fired," Kagoro
said, indicating that the situation at Harare City
Council was " a
microbattle of a broader national struggle that’s going on"
between the MDC
and ZANU PF.
"These battles over Harare are in
my view a foretaste of the sort of
problems the MDC will have if it went into
a coalition government," said
Kagoro.
He said ZANU PF’s
interests in the capital’s affairs were driven
mainly by the fact that Harare
is the seat of power. If, therefore, the
MDC-led council managed to run the
capital efficiently, this could suggest
that the party could run the country
efficiently.
The question is: Can the MDC forge ahead and deliver
effectively
notwithstanding the behaviour and actions of the
government.
"The approach is to ensure that we don’t show our
ability to run the
affairs of Harare because that would demonstrate our
readiness to govern,"
said Gabriel Chaibva, the MDC shadow minister of local
government. "We
understand it’s enemy territory which we have to navigate.
We’re confident
that the people are aware of the machinations of our
detractors who have
been throwing spanners in the way of progress by our
councillors," said
Chaibva.
Analysts this week said the national
law of this country, including
the Urban Councils Act, was crafted to serve
the purpose and interests of a
one-party state. Local authorities enjoy
limited authority in their affairs.
Kagoro said the powers of the
minister under the Urban Councils Act
were clearly undemocratic, and
reflected on the urgent need for sweeping
constitutional reforms in the
country.
For example, the Minister of Local Government approves
council budget.
Without the minister’s consent, councils cannot
effect new service
charges. The minister can therefore play havoc with any
council’s finances
by refusing or delaying to give his approval.
The minister also approves borrowing powers for capital projects.
By not giving approval, the minister can stop any infrastructural
development
within council.
As things stand, analysts said, Chombo has not yet
approved Harare’s
application for borrowing powers since the inception of the
new council in
March 2002.
The new council can therefore not
undertake any major capital works.
Heads of department within the
council are appointed by the Local
Authorities Board, which in turn is
appointed by the minister.
This provision on top positions has
contributed to making councils
political fiefdoms, insiders
said.
"Heads and their deputies are appointed on the strength of
political
affiliation. This means that in reality, the City of Harare is a
key ZANU PF
organ set up by ZANU PF to serve and protect the interests of
ZANU PF.
If the MDC council wanted to work efficiently, it had to
do so in
political harmony with the ZANU PF edifice.
Analysts
said the desire by ZANU PF to control the Harare City Council
has always been
obvious.
In 1997, the Solomon Tawengwa-led council was dismissed by
the
Minister of Local Government for mismanagement.
A committee
headed by Malcom Thompson investigated the issue and
produced a damning
report on the conduct of council business.
The ministry then
appointed a Commission led by educationist Elijah
Chanakira to run the
affairs of the city. The commission derived its mandate
and authority from
the minister and the practice was that the minister would
issue directives to
the commission for implementation.
In other words, critics said,
the minister directly ran the affairs of
Harare City Council and enjoyed his
new authority on Harare, and therefore
never put in motion a programme for an
election of a new council.
The Combined Harare Residents’
Association had to take the matter to
court in 2000 to compel the government
to hold council elections in the
city.
The government challenged
the application by the residents, giving an
impression that it still wanted
to run the affairs of the capital four years
after appointing a
commission.
The High Court ruled that the continued running of
council affairs by
the commission was illegal.
A subsequent
council election gave the MDC a resounding victory, with
the opposition party
winning 44 of the 45 council seats.
Analysts said the government is
on the warpath to check and reverse
the advance of the opposition in the
capital.
It came as no surprise, they said, that immediately after
the new
council was in office, the government issued a directive to the
council not
to dismiss about 700 ZANU PF activists that had been irregularly
employed by
the Commission.
A second directive ordered the
council to refer all issues pertaining
to personnel and finances to the
minister for approval.
FinGaz
Experts call for electoral law review
Cyril
Zenda Staff Reporter
8/7/2003 9:02:40 AM (GMT +2)
AS
Zimbabweans begin the countdown to the country’s sixth general
elections
which could come anytime within the next 18 months, experts from
African
countries have warned that unless the country’s electoral laws are
revisited,
the results of the elections could be subject of more disputes
because the
existing electoral system is not credible.
The experts, who were in
Harare this week to attend a regional
conference on electoral reforms
organised by the Zimbabwe Election Support
Network (ZESN), added their voices
to the chorus for the review of the
country ’s electoral laws.
They strongly advised against Zimbabweans going into another poll
before an
overhaul of the troubled southern African country’s entire
electoral
system.
"For very good reasons, I can understand and even
appreciate why
Zimbabweans should clamour for electoral reforms … without
that, the attempt
to reinvigorate the democratic process will experience a
false start," said
Agyeman-Duah Baffour from the Centre for Democratic
Development in Ghana.
Baffour is familiar with the Zimbabwean
electoral system as he was
part of the Commonwealth Election Observer Advance
Team and later part of
the Commonwealth Observer Team that monitored the 2000
parliamentary
elections. He has also been in the country after the 2000
elections to study
ZESN’s efforts to promote free and fair elections in
Zimbabwe.
"The absence of transparency in the electoral system
accounts for the
lack of mutual trust among (political) parties and
confidence in the
process," Baffour said.
"Maybe time is ripe
for serious, inclusive and honest dialogue in
Zimbabwe. Many conflicts on the
continent have been created by systems that
shunt aside debate because they
are structured as a simple horse race and by
a legislative process that is
representative of one interest group," said
Claude Kabemba from the
Johannesburg-based Electoral Institute of Southern
Africa.
"Reforming the system therefore requires that measures of transparency
are
introduced and enhanced," Baffour said. "The overriding concern in
electoral
reforms, therefore is how to build the confidence of the political
parties
and other stakeholders in the system," he added.
"If Zimbabwe is
contemplating electoral reforms, it is crucial that
such a process be
achieved through dialogue and negotiation between all
interested parties and
groups," said Khabele Matlosa from Lesotho.
Jestina Cumbe from
Mozambique said effective electoral laws are built
around the constitution so
it would be very important that in tandem with
their push for new electoral
laws, Zimbabweans should put constitutional
reforms very high on their
agenda.
"Zimbabweans should have trust in themselves in everything
they do,"
Cumbe said. They know what they want but they don’t have trust
in
themselves."
Edmond Nkalubo from Uganda concurred with Cumbe
that for the electoral
review process to be successful, there would be need
for a constitutional
review.
After the rejection in the February
2000 referendum by the public of a
government-authored constitutional draft,
President Robert Mugabe’s
government has said it will not again put
constitutional reforms on its
agenda as Zimbabweans seem to be more
comfortable under the Lancaster House
ceasefire document currently working as
a constitution for the country.
The regional experts expressed
concern that the Zimbabwean electoral
system does not have in place even some
of the most basic ingredients
accepted the world over as necessary for a
transparent electoral process
such as an independent electoral body to
organise and run all elections in
the country.
Currently all
election responsibilities in Zimbabwe are shared between
the
Registrar-General’s office, the Electoral Directorate, the
Electoral
Supervisory Commission, the Ministry of Justice, Legal and
Parliamentary
Affairs as well as several other government departments most of
whose
objectivity has been subject of a violent debate for
years.
The Zimbabwean electoral system, which is eerily out of sync
with
those in most of the countries in southern Africa, has not even
been
adjusted to meet the recommendations of the Southern African
Development
Community (SADC) Parliamentary Forum which seek to foster
transparency and
integrity in all elections in the region.
Apart
from making an independent national electoral body one of the
basic
requirements, the forum’s recommendations include areas such as
voter
registration and education, access by political parties to the public
media,
campaign process and proper de-limitation to avoid gerrymandering. It
also
covers the role of local and international election observers and
monitors
in elections the results of which would be acceptable to all
interest
groups.
Part of the argument by the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change
in dozens of its election petitions from the June 2000
as well as the court
challenge to the results of last year’s presidential
election have been that
the country’s electoral system provides horse and cat
loopholes for the
ruling ZANU PF to commit massive electoral fraud.
FinGaz
Comment
Ignore the hawks
8/7/2003
8:32:16 AM (GMT +2)
IN the last couple of weeks, Zimbabwe has
largely remained transfixed
by prospects of what appears to be imminent
dialogue between the ruling ZANU
PF and the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change seeking a solution to
the country’s still unfolding crisis.
And the collective national sigh of
relief over prospects of a negotiated
settlement is understandable.
We believe that we are not alone in
saying that this is a rare window
of opportunity for the country to mount a
concerted trawl for solutions and
speed is of the essence. There is no better
time for an inclusive and honest
dialogue in Zimbabwe than now.
It has however since emerged that there are some within Zimbabwe’s
body
politic who are opposed to such a negotiated settlement to the country’
s
long-running crisis. They are now involved in fierce
behind-the-scenes
manoeuvres to frustrate the process. It is panic stations
within the ranks
of these so-called hawks who have exhibited a rash of
impatience against
those agitating for or encouraging dialogue.
Not that we are surprised by this turn of events, but the question
that begs
an answer is why? Who stands to benefit if the mooted talks are
either put on
hold or concerted efforts by all stakeholders for the
political parties to
mend fences completely flop?
Certainly not Zimbabweans who have
suffered under the slow motion and
now accelerating collapse of the economy
and who know that dialogue will
ensure a well-filled pot of ingredients to be
stirred and soothe the economy
’s running sore.
The
international community and Zimbabweans in particular, who wear
the shoe and
therefore know how and where it pinches, have been singing from
the same song
sheet in support of a negotiated process. The mind boggles
therefore as to
why these hawks, whose known objectives are running against
the grain of
national aspirations, should be given room to destabilise a
national process.
They should be allowed to fall by the wayside after being
overtaken by events
or if need be just be forced out of the way.
It goes without saying
that the potential for fissures has always been
there and it was just a
question of time before cracks began to emerge. The
truth of the matter is
that the jittery hawks who do not have a power base
of their own are caught
between reality and insecurity.
The source of discord is that, much
as they may not want to admit it,
they will be rendered irrelevant by the new
political dispensation likely to
be ushered in through a negotiated
settlement. Unfortunately these hawks’
political intolerance belongs to
history’s septic tank — there is no reason
why Zimbabweans should not talk to
find a solution to their problems.
Despite public posturing and
threadbare claims of altruism, nothing
other than their futile efforts to
frustrate the talks provides tangible
evidence that the self-centred hawks
whose political shelf-life is almost up
are doing whatever they are doing for
self-aggrandisement. They do not
inspire confidence across the political
range and they have dismally failed
to exert a dominant
influence.
They are no longer relevant to our situation and should
therefore be
dismissed with the contempt they deserve and like the jokes that
they are.
FinGaz
Are we really ready for change?
8/7/2003
8:40:04 AM (GMT +2)
EDITOR — For us to tear down the current regime
without a desire to
rebuild would be counter productive.
As foggy as
it may seem now Zimbabwe has a future ahead. Beyond the
Zanu PF regime, in
the horizon the clouds are forming and are pregnant with
change.
The question is are we ready for change? For most Zimbabweans the only
future
they can imagine is the removal of the current regime so that
everybody will
make merry. Then what?
We need to set a course beyond that. Kwame
Nkrumah said, " . . . in
this time more than any other we need thinkers —
thinkers of great thoughts,
doers —doers of great deeds …" and this statement
said many years ago still
speaks to Zimbabweans today.
I had the
opportunity to watch a gigantic cargo ship being led out of
a cove by a tug
boat that seemed so tiny in size but pulling this enormous
structure out to
sea.
It made me see that the young people of Zimbabwe whether in or
outside
the country need to step forward to lead Zimbabwe into the
future.
Young people are the wind vane that points to society’s
"popular"
opinion seeing that they are majority.
One of the many
down falls of this current regime was not allowing
their conscience — the
young people — to speak and lead the country into the
future.
I
see Zimbabwe becoming the strong nation that it should be, a
democracy that
is married with its bride — economic prosperity. At the core
of this
renaissance is a caliber of leaders that has a fear of God and a
respect for
people.
You may say that I am a dreamer but I am not the only one.
Nkosi
Sikelela eZimbabwe.
Bangulanyi Ntaisi,
Canada.
FinGaz
And now to the Notebook . . .
8/7/2003
8:36:50 AM (GMT +2)
Nhlanhla Masuku,
Zimbabwe’s super
analyst, was on our one and only ZBC’s programme
Media Watch this week giving
his views on the Zimbabwean media’s coverage of
three different issues over
the past week — the government-induced cash
shortage, the ZANU PF-MDC talks,
and the Zimbabwe International Book Fair.
What a talent! Very few
people are able to be experts in three areas
that are as different as three
days in the sky. We wonder what his
background and qualifications are like
for him to deserve the privilege of
being invited to pontificate on what the
Press should report and how it
should report. Maybe Tazzen Murambadoro (nee
Mandizvidza) knows better.
But to any average Zimbo, it appears
like this man becomes an expert
on anything under the sun as long as he gets
an opportunity to get his
not-so-handsome face on our TV
screens.
Some people just love to appear in the media, whether or
not they have
anything sensible to say. And in Zimbabwe we have too many such
people,
apart from Masuku.
There are others like Killer Zivhu —
one person who would sell his own
grandmother just to get media coverage —
Samuel Undenge and Kurauwone
Chihwayi, just to name, but a few. We will not
mention those same old faces
that seem to dominate brother Supa Madiwanzira’s
Talking Business programme,
as well as the same scrofulous crowds that throng
Mai Chisamba’s show and
other programmes like Teen Scene on our staid TV
station.
There are people who now make it their full time job to
attend those
programmes, not because they have anything meaningful to
contribute, but
simply to appear on TV and put the noses of voyeuristic
neighbours out of
joint. Ndinobuda paTV.
Notwithstanding
the threats about the phasing out of $500 bills, CZ,
like any other
responsible citizen of this country who has been abused for
unacceptably too
long, will not surrender a single red cent of his money to
any bank, unless
the announcement is made by another regime whose integrity
he has no reason
to doubt.
He will keep his little notes under
his pillow until he knows where
the bankrupt Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe will
get enough money to buy enough
paper to print enough new $500 notes to
replace the trillions in circulation
the war cabinet’s taskforce on the cash
crisis is threatening to phase out.
This is really an addled
threat, and serious people will remain
unfazed, especially those that have
queued day in day out to get some measly
amounts, some so ridiculously low
that they can not sustain one person for a
single day, let alone an average
African family.
This clearly shows that some people have run out of
ideas but are just
too proud to admit it.
How can three
ministers — from Finance, Defence and State Security —
exaggerate their
seriousness announcing such spiel? For our own Comical Ali,
people have
gotten used to him and they no longer take him seriously anyway.
We don’t
know if the three ministers have been rehearsing behind the scenes
with a
view to join their Prime Minister.
Some ideas do not really sound
like they are being hazarded by someone
who has been to an economics
school.
Silly suggestions that are mooted by street vendors and
empty-headed
war veterans are suddenly announced as government policy. Jesu
Kristo!
This goes to show us what this country’s leadership thinks
of us
ordinary Zimbabweans — that we are daft beyond redemption.
It therefore should not come as a surprise to anyone that some
enterprising
entrepreneurs have decided to assist the RBZ to print
money.
Zimbabweans are in
a mood for talks. Who
has ever dreamt that a great party like the
Zimbabwe African National Union
(Patriotic Front) would one day ever agree
to engage in talks with
"unpatriotic sell-outs" like the MDC (Movement for
the Destruction of the
Country)? But the two have agreed to talk and every
one is wondering what
they will talk about and for how long. As if taking a
cue from the
politicians, ANZ, the publishers of the "Strive Masiyiwa-owned
Daily News"
also decided to mend relations with the Zimbabwe Republic
Police, whose
spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena had for the past two or so years
vowed never again
to talk to the privately-owned daily.
This is really a commendable
move and we hope ZUJ, IJAZ and possibly
NAFJ, will issue statements
congratulating the two parties for realising on
time that the people of
Zimbabwe are more important than their pride.
Maybe with the ZANU
PF/MDC talks on, the not-so-confident police
spokesman can rest assured that
there would be fewer inquiries that would
put him out of shape, so the
armistice comes at the right time!
CZ wonders who else is talking
to who.
cznotebook@yahoo.co.uk
FinGaz
Political sobriety panacea to Zim’s crisis
8/7/2003 8:48:52 AM (GMT +2)
The "final push" ge-nerated a lot of
debate and controversy in the
national discourse especially in regard to its
impact on Zimbabwe’s
transitional politics.
Much of the discourse
has unfortunately been narrowed to an analysis
of its success or
failure.
I don’t intend to get myself embroiled in that sort of
debate because
it is now only of academic interest.
It is easy
to critisise the "final push" ex post facto. That is not
the intention here,
but to redirect the discourse in a way that will
positively transform the
agenda of Zimbabwean politics.
Suffice to say there are various
schools of thought emerging in the
national discourse and much depends on
one’s "inarticulate major premises"
to borrow a phrase from Roscoe
Pound.
In his last published article entitled "Schools of thought
on
successful stayaway" the brilliant Prof Masipula Sithole (may his soul
rest
in peace!) proffered three schools of thought then forming on the
national
discourse in the aftermath of the MDC two-day stay away that
preceded the
"final push".
Much of his analysis, in my view, is
still valid in the aftermath of
the "final push".
I identify
with his third school of thought called "Ripe for
mediation" which is worth
quoting at length.
"Ripe for Mediation: the third school of thought
suggests that for the
first time since the controversial presidential
election, a conducive
environment now exists for a ‘meaningful national
dialogue’ between the
ruling party and opposition party.
The
situation is now "ripe" for mediation, to borrow a concept from
Johns
Hopkins’ William Zartman.
This school of thought argues in its
optimism that the stayaway
demonstrated that there is now a condominium or
dual presidency or authority
in this country — one wielding the power of
coercion, while the other wields
moral and popular power.
We
suspected it all along, at least since the referendum defeat at the
beginning
of 2000. This is time to talk. This is time for a
‘national
dialogue’".
I propose to develop this school of
thought (I suppose that’s the best
honour I can bestow on my late uncle, for
he never lived to do it himself)
by drawing parallels with the South African
transitional experience from
which Zimbabwe can benefit a lot.
The aim is to show that the objective situation in and outside the
country
and the dynamics at play are generally supportive of constructive
national
engagement in Zimbabwe.
South Africa has been enmeshed in a
marathon political and
constitutional impasse for the greater part of the
20th century.
From the establishment of the Union of SA in 1910
political forces
with different ideological approaches to many
constitutional, political and
socio-economic issues have been at
loggerheads.
The result has been the emergence of a conflict and
violence-based
socio-political culture of even greater intensity than what we
have
witnessed in this country in the past three years.
In a
phenomenal twist of events from about February 1990 the ideal of
a "new"
South Africa became a common unifying symbol to an overwhelming
percentage of
the South African population.
Although there has been ambiguity on
what the "new" should entail,
what stands out clear is that it was the first
time in the country’s history
that belligerent political forces acknowledged
the importance of
co-operating among themselves in order to find workable
means of solving the
socio-political and economic questions bedeviling the
country.
The different definitions of the "new" South Africa were
especially
evident at the first multi-party negotiations. The congress for a
democratic
South Africa (CODESA), where parties agreed on general concepts
but fiercely
disagreed as soon as details were discussed.
Dr
Willem de Klerk (to whose research I am greatly indebted)
indentifies four
factors that laid the foundation for or led to negotiations
in South Africa,
namely:
lapartheid had collapsed;
lpressures within the country;
linternational politics pushed the door open for negotiations; and
lleaders generated the power to make
a mental leap.
I propose to deal with these one by one and to show
how present-day
Zimbabwe enjoys an almost identical mood and situation as
1990 South
Africa — a mood and situation conducive for national
dialogue.
Apartheid disintegrated as a result of its political
bankruptcy and
the sheer numbers of its enemies.
The
"orderliness" which apartheid was intended to create failed
miserably because
the majority of South Africans and the rest of the world
rejected
it.
Black nationalism spurned apartheid by championing the rights
of black
people in their fatherland.
The complexity of apartheid
betrayed unholy bungling because systems,
procedures, structures,
complexities and absurdities tried to conceal
dishonesty.
It had
also become costly to maintain an authoritarian regime
especially at a time
when international aid was suspended.
It is only fair to say that
in like manner, the Zimbabwean government
is caught up in complexities and
absurdities that will wreck vengeance on
the system in the manner that
apartheid was destroyed by its own immorality.
It is clearly an
anoma-lly for us to have a dual party parliament and
a single one-party
government.
An ideal situation will be a situation whereby the MDC
has ministerial
posts in government directly proportional to their
representation in
parliament.
It is an anomaly for our
constitution to give the ruling party an
unfair advantage over opposition
political parties by giving the president
the power to appoint 30 MPs by
special procedure, who invariably are party
functionaries.
The
President has a disproportionately large franchise and a party
winning a
majority of the 120 seats (ie. at least 61) may still find itself
in an
overall minority if the President belongs to another party and
appoints
persons belonging to his party to fill the seats.
It is an
absurdity for the ruling party to then use its unwarranted
majority in
parliament to enact unjust oppressive laws and rigidly insist on
the rule of
law.
This is one reason why Parliament has lost much of its respect
and
dignity because the provision for the appointment by special procedure of
30
MPs is a drastic attack on the principle of universal suffrage which is
the
cornerstone of a democratic political system.
Equality of
supprage is one principle, among others, on the basis of
which the provision
for 20 parliamentary seats reserved for whites under the
original Lancaster
House Constitution fell foul of internationally
recognised democratic
standards.
The "Third Chimure-nga" has exposed the government for
what it is,
especially with reports that a clique or kleptocracy of ruling
party
functionaries benefited more than the intended
beneficiaries.
It is not wide off the mark to say the government’s
violent land
reform programme did not achieve much other than the alienation
of the
government from international donors and financiers.
The
result has been galloping inflation, a cash crisis, biting foreign
currency
shortage, rising unemployment, general economic decay and
resentment against
the government.
The government moo-ted one "New" Economic Recovery
programme after
another but none ever bore fruit.
It has now
become ubundantly, clear to most Zimbabweans that the
government, on its own
and by itself has no capacity to woo back
international aid and restore
investor confidence.
The Bretton Woods institutions have their
problems in respect to our
interest but it is naïve and unrealistic to
believe that we can do without
them.
In my view, it is a
question of knowing the nature of the beast and
mapping a way
forward.
The government has been suspended from the Commonwealth
Council of
Ministers and has also been stripped of its voting rights by the
IMF and
World Bank.
This is a manifestation of how the
"orderliness" that the system
intended to create has failed
dismally.
Negotiations in South Africa also took place because of
pressures
within the country for renewal and change.
The ANC as
a powerful factor in South Africa could no longer be
ignored because it had
come a long way and now enjoyed overwhelming support
from the black
majority.
Like present-day Zimbabwe, 1990 South Africa has some
kind of dual
authority in that that de jure government still held power, but
de facto,
the ANC had a kind of veto
namely
that there were no winners and no lossers. The middle course
won the
argument. While the ANC had its two-stage process adopted, it had to
drop its
insistence on a referendum. In return for accepting the ANC’s
two-stage
process, the apartheid government won on federalism and the
adoption of the
constitution by the constituent Assembly.
Reminiscing on the
seed, germination and birth of the South African
process, one realises that
perharps the negotiation process had to mature
first, perhaps the time was
not yet ripe for the political groupings to
realise that no-one could "go it
alone’. The fact is that CODESA was a first
trial run which, although serving
a purpose, was doomed to end in deadlock.
Looking back, political leaders
would perhaps also agree that, at the early
stages of negotiations, they were
possiby not as skilled as they
subsequently became and had an insufficient
sensitivity to what is called
"process": to maintain progress with
negotiations which reaching "win-win"
compromises along the way. In
retrospect, it is clear that the South African
constitutional negotiations
process, starting on very weak legs with CODESA
had come to maturity in the
MPNP. The lessons had been well learnt and taken
seriously.
An intersting development arising from the many bi- and
multi-lateral
negotiations, which should be a lesson for Zimbabwe’s political
leadership,
is the pragmatism that had become evident in political, economic,
and
constitutional discussions in South Africa. All the parties had in some
or
other way undergone a shift from a dogmatic ideological political
approach
to a more pragmatic, flexible approach. It is especially since 1992
that the
emphasis increasingly fell on problem solving rather than dogmatic
approach
to issues. The pragmatism opened the door for mutually acceptable
solutions
and a constitutional framework which few people would have
predicted at the
commencement of negotiations. The process by which the South
African
constitution was born is now being acknowledged globally as one of
the most
extraordinary phenomena of modern-day constitutional
history.
Here in Zimbabwe, some voices are calling for caution
on the part of
the MDC. Naturally, transition politics is characterised by
uncertainity,
increasing violence, suspision, occassional despair, and the
consolidation
of power base. There will also be constant "constituency
pressures", whetehr
in the form of high expectations or criticism that it had
"sold out" F W de
Klerk ran a risk of rejection by radicals in his
constituency; N Mandela
also ran a similar risk of rejection by the black
masses. The danger of
losing political power and leverage is omnipresent in a
political
negotiation process but the political will to succeed, combined
with
patience, endurance, and oftern sheer will power will make the success
of
the process possible. It is my hope that this is going to be the case
in
ZImbabwe.
FinGaz
Zim faces huge cereal deficit
Staff
Reporter
8/7/2003 9:03:48 AM (GMT +2)
ZIMBABWE still faces
a huge cereal deficit of 1.3 million tonnes
despite some positive gains in
production achieved in the last agricultural
season, a local financial
institution has said.
In its economic report for June 2003,
Intermarket Holdings Limited,
said although cereal production was up 65.5
percent over the previous year,
more grain needed to be imported to plug the
shortfall.
"Although the cereal gap has improved significantly this
season, the
1.287 million tonnes gap requires sufficient capacity to
close.
"The cereal deficit will limit throughput to livestock and
dairy
farming this year.
"Food security remains in jeopardy in
the medium-term, with hopes
pinned on emergency food aid," the report
said.
Total maize output is anticipated to be about 803 000 tonnes.
Of the
1.3 million tonne deficit, maize accounts for 55 percent.
Wheat imports this year are estimated to be around 298 000 tonnes, as
the
winter wheat currently being planted is expected to produce only 90
000
tonnes, down from 160 000 tonnes last year.
According to the
report, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)
and World Food Programme
(WFP) said the government would only be able to
import 370 000 tonnes or 37.8
percent of the aggregate maize deficit due to
the shortages of foreign
currency.
"Thus 610 000 will have to be covered by emergency food
aid
facilities."
Cereal production has over the years been
severely affected by the
chaotic land reform, critical shortage of
fertiliser, fuel and seed.
The controversial land reform displaced
most large-scale commercial
farmers who traditionally accounted for 95
percent of wheat produced
locally.
Poor producer prices have
also compounded the problem.
FAO and WFP estimate that nearly 5.5
million people in Zimbabwe will
be in need of food aid in 2003/04
season.
Provinces critically affected with food insecurity are
Manicaland,
Midlands, Matebeleland North and South.
The urban
population is, however, more vulnerable because of the
deteriorating
macro-economic conditions that heve eroded real incomes.
FinGaz
US$200mln set aside for food
aid
Staff Reporter
8/7/2003
9:04:41 AM (GMT +2)
BULAWAYO — The World Food Programme
(WFP) has budgeted
US$200 million (Z$164.8 billion at the ruling exchange
rate) to buy food
relief for Zimbabwe.
Luis Clemens,
the WFP spokesman in Zimbabwe told The
Financial Gazette on the sideline of
food relief distribution in Tsholotsho
last Thursday that figures for
Zimbabwe and other four southern African
nations hit by food shortages had
been worked out.
The United Nations food relief agency
presented its budget
estimates for the new financial year in early July at a
meeting held in
Geneva after the government’s
appeal.
"For our emergency operation (EMOP) we have
budgeted at
least US$200million for Zimbabwe, which is subject to change as
reports of
individuals who are vulnerable and disadvantaged keeps trickling
in," said
Clemens.
Over US$500 million is needed by
the WFP to feed over
eight million people in southern
Africa.
Last Thursday, Cleme-ns, together with other
WFP officials
and food relief implementing agencies, witnessed 641 households
consisting
of 2 885 people collecting food handouts in drought-stricken
Tsho-lotsho
district.
Clemens said a new criteria
had been put in place to
ensure that only deserving people access food
relief.
"The new framework now caters specifically for
those who
did not harvest, have no income, livestock and remittances," he
said.
The criteria has however, left many villages
alleging that
they were being denied food because of petty
reasons.
Some villagers pleaded with the WFP officials
to revise
their food distribution system to include more people, saying most
villagers
in Tsholotsho had not harvested anything.
Clemens was however, quick to point out that the current
food shortages in
the country could be easily averted if the government
stripped the Grain
Marketing Board (GMB) monopoly to import maize.
FinGaz
Price controls: a cure ‘worse than the disease’
LOVEMORE KADENGE
8/7/2003 8:33:27 AM (GMT +2)
IN the ideal
sense, and if used "properly" price controls can be used
to protect consumers
against high prices.
Controls can be used to cushion, especially the
low income groups,
against declining real incomes as prices continuously
escalate. Price
controls seek to guarantee the disadvantaged of access to
basic goods in an
inflationary environment characterised by supply
constraints. Controls hold
out the promise of protecting consumers against
unaffordable prices.
In the short- term, price controls may seem
appealing but this may be
superficial. In the long-term, costs of price
controls could prove deadly.
They can be the wrong prescription.
Their prolonged use may prove damaging to the economy at large. They
may be
effective in the short term, particularly if used on only or a few
basic
goods. If used on one or a few goods, it may also be feasible for
government
to subsidise the particular producers and monitor compliance
by
retailers.
Effectiveness is likely if producers are
subsidised and business
continues to be viable. Price controls should be the
last resort in times of
emergencies. The fact is that price controls never
work for a long time,
otherwise evasion against the system emerges. They can
only offer temporary
benefits at best.
Their effectiveness
depends on a number of issues such as length of
use, nature of the good,
organisation of the industry, degree of government
enforcement, price
monitoring mechanism, general state of the economy and so
on. Evasion against
the system, which is ever present, also depends on the
same
factors.
General price controls are often imposed when the public
becomes
alarmed that inflation has run out of control. Price controls may
make a
positive contribution by calming these fears, particularly if
patriotism can
be counted to limit evasion. However, such benefits are not
likely to be
long term.
Also, while controls are in place,
measures against the root causes of
the inflationary situation and supply
constraints have to be found,
otherwise controls become long-term, which is
an unhealthy situation.
Controlled prices, however, should be
reviewed regularly to make sure
that business remains viable. While they can
sound a good intention on the
part of government, results of price controls
do count, to a greater extent.
Well-intentioned motives only are not enough.
Controls should be beneficial
to the greater majority of people.
The appeal of price controls is easy to explain, especially on the
part of
government. There is a strong emotional attraction for price
controls as a
way for government "to do something" or "to be seen to be
doing something"
about the highly inflationary environment.
In the case of Zimbabwe,
the current price controls were implemented
as from August 2000. The controls
were supposed to be in place for only six
months.
There was
debate as to whether this was a viable attempt to solve the
problem of high
prices. From the side of the government, controls were seen
as a viable
solution to cushion consumers whose real incomes are still fast
declining.
Other stakeholders such as the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ)
argued for
price monitoring instead. There was intense debate from different
quarters as
to the possible benefits of using price controls.
However, despite
these debates, government went ahead to implement the
price controls, which
have remained in place up to the current period. The
number of goods under
price controls has increased over time.
Given the long time in
which controls have been in place, it’s high
time government takes stock of
the impact of the current price controls. An
impact assessment should be done
so that a decision has to be made as to
whether to continue or remove the
controls. The viability of the levels of
the controlled prices should be
assessed.
It is important for government to make a periodic review
of the
controlled prices so that business continues to be viable; otherwise
the
system induces increased evasion. Price controls do not guarantee
supplies.
They may actually reduce supplies in the official market as black
markets
emerge.
Although government seems to be convinced that
the public has
benefited from the use of the price controls, an average
person would argue
otherwise. There isn’t much evidence to suggest the
benefits of price
controls so far. Instead, the situation of consumers has
deteriorated
further. There have been more problems than benefits of these
price
controls. There has been untold human suffering. The following are some
of
the effects that have been observed this far.
Price controls
have failed to cushion the majority of the consumers.
The result has been a
sharp deterioration in living standards. There has
been increased waiting
time as consumers spend a lot of valuable time
queuing for bread and other
basic commodities whose prices are controlled.
The search costs for most
basic goods are very high as supplies are very
limited in the official
market.
Controls have resulted in distortions in the economy that
have caused
output and social welfare to diminish. Less is being produced
because it has
become more profitable to produce other products, whose prices
are not fixed
by government at a low level. The profit incentive has been
removed on the
goods whose prices are controlled.
For instance,
bread is less available in the official market but is
found on the black
market while other products whose prices are not
controlled are available in
the official outlets.
Since the advent of the current price
controls, shortages of goods
whose prices are controlled have become
prevalent. For instance, mealie-meal
and sugar can no longer be found on the
official market. Surprisingly, large
quantities of these goods are available
on the black market where the prices
are exorbitant. The black market prices
are presumably even higher that what
would attain in a free
market.
From the viewpoint of industry, price controls have made
it
unprofitable for domestic producers to increase output through
more
expensive processes. Production costs have escalated. Fuel supplies
continue
to dwindle. Foreign currency shortages have worsened. Price controls
have
led to a shift in the allocation of resources. Some of the
industrialists
have argued for control of the input costs. They have turned
away from the
production of price-controlled goods. As the general economic
environment
continues to deteriorate, more evasion has taken
place.
However, from the point of view of government, these adverse
results
are some form of sabotage and lack of cooperation on the part of
industry.
Government also attributes some of the shortages to the drought
conditions.
Surprisingly, a lot of the goods that are no longer
available in the
official market are readily available in some of the
neighbouring countries
such as Botswana, Zambia and Mozambique. For instance,
Olivine cooking oil
produced locally is sold in Botswana while imported and
expensive cooking
oil is available in our shops.
Some of the
commodities with controlled prices are still available on
the official market
but with tremendous decline in quality and standards. As
producers complain
of high production costs — mainly due to foreign currency
shortages,
escalating fuel prices and the generally high inflation
environment, one of
the simplest forms of evasion that has taken place is
the deterioration in
quality and standards.
Quantities have been reduced, some of the
crucial ingredients have
been reduced and others altered, the weights have
been reduced, others
increased and some of the essential flavours have been
removed.
Non-compliance to product standards has been very high. For
example,
powdered soap no longer has much foam, liquid soaps have become too
weak and
solid soaps are now smaller. Some of the products are cut into
pieces and
each piece sold at the controlled price. Much of the bread and
buns have too
much yeast and less flour and other ingredients. Some of the
goods now
appear under a different name to justify evasion of the system. The
standard
loaf of bread is no longer readily available in the official
outlets.
The "artificially" low prices have worsened the situation
of the
majority of consumers, especially low-income earners who were
actually
supposed to benefit from the controlled prices were it not for the
expanding
black market. The poor standards of some of the controlled
commodities are a
health hazard.
In real terms, there has been
no strict adherence or compliance to
price controls. Monitoring of standards
and quality has also not been
effective. It is not very clear whether there
is any effective quality and
standards monitoring mechanism in place. In any
case, such monitoring is
unlikely to be effective where controls are general,
long term, supply
constraints continue to worsen and the economic conditions
continue to
decline. Under such conditions, there is need for government to
take a stock
check of the viability of price controls. Otherwise the supposed
"cure"
becomes worse than the "disease".
Government should
monitor the standards of commodities whose prices
are controlled; otherwise
the purpose of the controls is defeated. Products
whose prices are controlled
should be defined by the government with respect
to their size, standards and
quality. Monitoring for compliance should be
regular and effective. There is
a lot beyond the imposition of controls.
Part of this is the monitoring of
quality and standards after the imposition
of controls.
Most of
the commodities with controlled prices are traded on the black
market, except
those that are not tradable on the market. The magnitude of
the difference
between the controlled prices and the black market prices is
so wide that the
incentive for trading on the black market continues to be
high. In this case,
the black market is likely to remain for a long time.
Consumers, due to
desperation, are forced to buy goods on the black market.
While official
inflation is quoted at an artificially and relatively low
level, an expansive
black market has mushroomed and flourished. There is
need for government to
revise the issue of price controls or to ensure,
through government mechanism
that the system works for the benefit of the
majority.
However,
despite their failure or difficulties, price controls may
become extremely
difficult to lift, once imposed. There is usually political
resistance to
lifting price controls. As such, the return for a very
short-term "benefit",
consumers end up paying a very heavy long-term price.
There are monetary and
nonmonetary costs to this. If the government removed
price controls when the
inflationary environment has not stabilised or
supplies have not normalised,
the situation may sound politically
unfavourable.
If government
continues the use of price controls, given some of the
effects that have been
observed, the benefits are really not there for the
majority of the people.
History shows that the use of price controls, where
the economic environment
is deteriorating, damages economies and
significantly does harm to the vast
majority of buyers and sellers who
depend on them, especially the most
disadvantaged and the poor.
Lovemore Ka-denge is president of the
Zimbabwe Economics Society
News24
Nepad: Africa's responsibility
13/06/2003 17:14 -
(SA)
Durban - African political and business leaders took a small
step this week
to move Nepad off the drawing board, agreeing a shared
responsibility to put
its bold policies into action.
But some
delegates at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Africa summit expressed
concern
over its slow implementation and lethargy of many African states
about making
the New Partnership for Africa's Development work.
More than 700
government, business and civil society representatives met in
the East Coast
city for a three-day summit to discuss progress achieved
on
Nepad.
President Thabo Mbeki, current president of the African
Union, emphasised
that Africa was moving forward.
Speaking on Friday -
the final day of the summit - he made a firm commitment
that concrete
progress would be made to bring peace and security to Africa,
making the
continent attractive for investment.
This included the resolving
conflicts and tensions, over the next year, in
the Democratic Republic of
Congo, Sudan, Liberia, Burundi and Zimbabwe.
Projects
"We will
make those advances on the African continent."
Various Nepad projects
would be implemented over that period.
"Those who have been impatient,
who have thought something that effectively
started two years ago must be
producing results now, will see those results.
"Results that will give
this message of Africans doing something to take
charge of their own lives,"
Mbeki said.
Although there were no firm commitments from business, the
heads of some of
Africa's largest companies accepted a responsibility to help
drive the
process, and to set an example for good corporate governance on
the
continent.
Adebayo Ogunlesi, global head of investment banking at
Credit Suisse First
Boston, said it was important that African business and
investment
institutions set the standard for others to follow.
The
continent was beginning to create African corporate giants that could
lead
the investment drive and show the rest of the world there were
attractive
opportunities in Africa.
Nepad's goals, he stressed, would not be
achieved without partnership
between government and business.
Ogunlesi
said the meetings held at the summit clearly showed there was
"something
different about Africa now than (in) years before".
In 2002, the business
community gave Nepad a ringing endorsement, but had
wanted to see moves on
implementation.
A survey conducted ahead of this week's gathering found
that while 80
percent of those who attended last year's meeting were now more
optimistic
about the economic outlook for Africa, three out of four were
growing
impatient with Nepad's progress.
US-based pharmaceutical giant
Pfizer's senior vice-president Robert Mallett
said business delegates had
stressed the importance of companies setting
standards for
governance.
Benchmark
South African policies should be used as a
benchmark for companies across
the continent, and workshops were being held
to share these experiences, he
said.
But, Ghana-based Ashanti
Goldfields chief executive Sam Jonah warned that
investment would not flow to
Africa unless the right political strategies
were in place.
In that
sense there was no alternative to Nepad, but unless those
principles - of
good governance, democracy and the rule of law - were
vigorously implemented,
benefits would be seriously undermined.
"Unless we gear our efforts at
creating the conditions that will stop
capital flight, and just as
importantly will stop brain drain... all efforts
to bring foreign direct
investment here will be futile," he said.
Speaking earlier, South African
Trade and Industry Minister Alec Erwin
heralded a closer working relationship
on Nepad between the Africa and the
G8 group of industrialised
countries.
This included monthly meetings, and a recent commitment by the
G8 to give
African countries greater access to their markets.
Group of
Eight
One should not underestimate the contact between the Nepad
Implementation
Committee and the secretariat, and the G8."
Replying to
a statement that the WEF summit had not produced any firm
outcomes, he said
that this closer relationship with the G8 and with
business was exactly what
the meeting was about and what Nepad required.
However, not all the
delegates were happy with the progress achieved in
making Nepad
work.
Ghanaian private sector development minister Kwamena Bartels told
reporters
much still had to be done by African countries and international
partners to
make Nepad work.
Some Africans leaders had not delivered,
in particular on the peer review
mechanism.
But, he said, the recovery
plan must not be allowed to be held back by the
poor performance of those
countries - a feeling shared by most participants
at the meeting.
Only
15 of the 53 member countries in the AU have so far signed up for
Nepad's
peer review mechanism, which will allow for progress in adhering to
Nepad's
policies to be monitored.
The annual summit will to Maputo, Mozambique,
next year.
News24
Leakey 'surprised' at Nepad
07/08/2003
18:53 - (SA)
Johannesburg - Retired Kenyan politician
Richard Leakey on
Thursday labelled the New Partnership for Africa's
Development (Nepad) "an
excellent idea", but said he was surprised it had not
achieved more.
"The Nepad idea is an excellent idea, but it
will only work if
there is consistency ... I am surprised more has not been
achieved," said
Leakey, who is in Johannesburg to deliver a lecture
celebrating the birth of
his paleo-anthropologist father Louis Leakey on
August 7, 1903.
Leakey, who endured an attack with whips and
clubs by members of
the youth wing of former Kenyan president Daniel arap
Moi's ruling Kanu
party in 1996, is scornful of limp political
wrists.
"I don't think political soft-pedalling and placating
will help.
It is good that Africa demand, of its own, better, but there seem
to have
been a lot of limp-wristed responses," he said, mentioning the crises
in
Zimbabwe and west Africa as examples.
"The partnership
with the West is being held back."
The former Kenyan
opposition MP, said he knew that when he
formed his party, Safina, in 1995,
his name held clout.
"I was very discouraged with what was
happening in Kenya at the
time and I wanted to see if, from a position of
political advocacy, I could
make a change. Also, I knew that, in a sense, I
had an external status and
thought I might be heard more loudly because of
that."
There are few who would argue that this was a
misinformed
theory. The Leakey name is almost synonymous with a myriad
of
paleo-anthropological discoveries. His father, mother, wife and
daughter
have all made impressive contributions to the way we understand our
own
ancestry.
Louis Leakey was born in Kenya to English
missionary parents and
might never have made it to a paleo-anthropological
dig, according to his
son.
"The First World War intervened
(in Louis Leakey being sent, as
a boy born to English parents, to school in
Britain). He had no formal
education and lived among people who had little
Western influence. If it
hadn't been for the First World War he might have
... become a preacher like
his parents."
Instead, still in
his 20s, Louis Leakey was awarded a PhD for
his work stemming from finds he
made on excavations in east Africa.
In 1932, he stunned the
world by claiming that fossils he had
found there were those of our oldest
true ancestors.
His theory that man came from Africa and not
Asia was severely
damaged in 1935 when geologist Percy Boswell accompanied
Louis Leakey on his
next expedition but could not find the excavation sites
again.
Later, Louis Leakey redeemed himself in the eyes of
the
scientific world, and his Africa-is-home theory is now generally
accepted.
Richard Leakey, by a side route, followed in Louis
and Mary
Leakey's footsteps and made some important paleo-anthropological
finds.
The most impressive of these being the discovery in
1984 of
"Turkana Boy", the nearly-complete skeleton of a Homo erectus boy,
and 1985
discovery of the first Australopithecus aethiopicus
skull.
"I didn't want to go into that field myself. I felt
that my
parents had done so well in it and there wasn't much for me to do.
Now my
daughter, Louise, is also in it. She seems sincerely interested. It
comes
from home environment."
"No, I don't think there is
a gene," he laughs.
Despite the major finds, Leakey soon left
paleo-anthropology,
taking on Kenyan conservation issues between 1989 and
1994 and then going
into politics, leaving that and taking on corruption in
his country's civil
service. Now he is "thoroughly enjoying my second year of
unemployment".
Not that he has been idle.
In these two years he has done some consulting, lectured at the
United
States' Stoneybrook University, "taken time to think" and begun
writing
another book.
"I am also trying to develop a vineyard in
Kenya. I'm not idle,
but I am not harassed."
Having time
to think and plan, Leakey has kept the new Kenyan
government, under President
Mwai Kibaki under his watchful eye.
He acknowledges that the
Kibaki government got off to a "pretty
ropey" start, inheriting massive
economic and political problems from Arap
Moi, but Leakey believes that the
seven months Kibaki has had at the helm
could have produced
more.
"While I can only sympathise it is time now to demand
more
action, more leadership ..."
Which brings us back to
Nepad.
Leakey says there is a growing need among Africa's
youth to see
their political leaders assume responsibility and enjoy fewer
perks.
"There is a growing thought among the youth that,
'What right to
political leaders have?' They want to see more accountability.
That is
certainly true in Kenya."
"I might go into
politics again," Leakey muses.