• Blair insists on tough line on Zimbabwe
• Zimbabwe's Ruling Party Faces Internal Disputes as Annual Congress Approaches
• Malawi To Press For Zimbabwe's Inclusion In Commonwealth
• PM tells African leaders: clean up corruption
• Mugabe told: Get house in order
• Citizens take ANZ case to High Court
• Why let the vision dim now when we are so near the goal?
• Youths Petition Commonwealth Over Election Rigging in Nigeria
• Zim haunts C’wealth
• MDC to tackle Chombo head-on
• Dramatic rise in short term interest rates
• Mugabe’s threat to quit C’wealth draws fire
• Chaos reigns in Zim’s education sector
• Kadoma loss threatens political doom for MDC
• Mugabe to drop exit bombshell
• Mugabe contradicts Murerwa on interest rates
• Fed up with good words of intent
• Govt to spend $1 trillion on domestic interest
• Africa’s hope lies in its own people
• Understanding quiet diplomacy
• New facility for importers of fuel
• Region could save $12m in food imports
• Farming turned into a song-and-dance affair
• Will a foreign currency auction system solve forex blues?
• Succession lottery roll-over
• MDC warns of maize crunch in Zimbabwe
• Fuel Prices Fall As Supplies Improve
• Dubious Money Lending Firms Mushroom
• Prospects of Recovery in Tourism Sector Bleak

By Andrew Cawthorne

ABOARD PRIME MINISTER'S PLANE (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair has
pushed aside talk of a compromise on crisis-torn Zimbabwe and insisted its
former colony should remain suspended from the Commonwealth.

"The key thing is to maintain the suspension of Zimbabwe from the
Commonwealth because that sends the right signal of strong disapproval for
what is happening in Zimbabwe at the present time," Blair told reporters on
Thursday.

Blair, heading to Nigeria for the biennial summit of the group of 54 mainly
former British colonies on Friday, said the suspension was a mild reprimand
for President Robert Mugabe after accusations that he rigged his re-election
in 2002, but that something was better than nothing.

"The Commonwealth has got a limit to the power that it can have. But it is
far better to send a signal than do nothing," he said.

Canada suggested on Wednesday the suspension should be maintained but that a
mechanism be created to allow Zimbabwe back in before the next summit.

At the same time, many southern African states have rejected the suspension
and asked that the former Rhodesia be allowed back into the fold
immediately.

In a tough message to the region, Blair said it was ordinary Zimbabweans who
were suffering from the country's economic meltdown and widespread human
rights violations.

"It is particularly important for the players in the region in southern
Africa to exert strong pressure, as I hope they will do, in the interest of
the people in Zimbabwe," Blair said.

"The situation in Zimbabwe has not got better. It is worse. Everyone knows
that the situation in Zimbabwe is a situation caused by the Mugabe regime.
Zimbabwe should be able to feed its own people, it is a potentially rich
country," he added.

Unemployment in the former southern African breadbasket is running at more
than 70 percent, inflation is above 500 percent and millions of people now
rely on food aid.

Political opponents of Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party, in power since
independence from Britain in 1980, are regularly harassed and there are
strict curbs on press freedom.

Mugabe, whose government has forcibly acquired white-owned commercial farms
for redistribution among landless blacks, has accused Britain of colonial
meddling.

But Blair dismissed the charge as patently unfounded.

"You have only got to see the terrible suffering of the people to realise
this has nothing to do with old fashioned debates about colonialism. But it
is simply to do with regimes that don't treat their people properly," he
said.

He noted that Britain had trebled aid to Africa in recent years, had a
record of opposing apartheid in South Africa and gave "a very large amount
of aid" to Zimbabwe in the past.

Blair held back from calling for Mugabe to step down, but said abusive
regimes needed to reform.

"I would like to see all regimes that oppress their people change. But you
have got to accept the limits of what you can and can't do," he said.

Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF, in power since independence 23 years ago, is
facing internal wrangling as it opens its annual congress Friday.
No one within the ruling is expecting that Mr. Mugabe will step down as its
leader. But because of internal disputes, political observers say Mr. Mugabe
has decided he will stay on at the helm of the party. After a meeting of the
Central Committee Wednesday, Mr. Mugabe told state media that many party
leaders had betrayed the founding principles of Zanu PF, and were now only
interested in enriching themselves.

The agenda for the three-day party congress includes an examination of the
economy, which is in its worst state in the country's history, and recent
setbacks in public support, especially in cities.

Zanu PF has lost control of all but one of Zimbabwe's urban centers, but won
two key parliamentary bi-elections to fill vacant seats. All elections in
Zimbabwe are run by the government and there is no independent oversight of
the polls.

On the eve of the congress, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
launched an urgent appeal to the international community for more food aid.
It said current food stocks would run out in the last week of January, and
the World Food Program had not received a formal request from the Zimbabwe
government for further assistance.

More than five million people, or nearly half the population, are being fed
by the WFP already. The opposition party's agriculture spokesman, Renson
Gasela, said Thursday, that, even if good rains fell this summer season,
only about 40 percent of the country's farmers have enough planting seed.

      Copyright © 2003, Dow Jones Newswires

      BLANTYRE, Malawi (AP)--President Bakili Muluzi promised Thursday to
intercede on behalf of Zimbabwe with the Commonwealth, saying its continued
exclusion from the organization of the U.K. and its former territories would
only hurt its people - not President Robert Mugabe.

      Muluzi spoke before his departure for a Commonwealth heads of state
meeting starting Friday in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.

      "The position of Malawi is to encourage the international community to
create a window of assistance to Zimbabwe so that the people do not suffer,"
Muluzi told journalists. "The issue of isolating Zimbabwe cannot resolve the
problems in Zimbabwe."

      Zimbabwe was suspended from the Commonwealth's decision-making
councils after disputed 2002 elections which saw Mugabe returned to office
amid allegations of vote-rigging and intimidation.

      When Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo didn't invite Mugabe to
attend this week's summit, Mugabe threatened to pull Zimbabwe out of the
Commonwealth.

      Zimbabwe faces its worst political and economic crisis since
independence from the U.K. in 1980, with inflation running at 526% and acute
shortages of food, gasoline, medicines and other essential goods.

      Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund took the first step toward
expelling Zimbabwe, saying the country had run up arrears of $273 million
since 2001 and wasn't cooperating with them.

      Muluzi's comments came after Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa said he
was leading a campaign to have Zimbabwe reinstated in the 54-member
Commonwealth.

      Muluzi said, however, that some of Zimbabwe's laws, which "are not
meant to benefit the people," should be repealed.

      Mugabe's government has used sweeping new security and media
legislation to crack down on the political opposition and shut down the
country's only independent daily newspaper.

      (END) Dow Jones Newswires

The prime minister made the comments during a speech to business leaders at
the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.

Responding to questions from the audience, Chrétien told delegates that
investors need to know there is rule of law, respect for basic human rights
and fair elections before they invest.

"You need political stability to stop these bloody conflicts that you have
too often in some parts of Africa," said the prime minister. "You have to
have a system to cure that. You know, this is the reality. And the capital
will come."

Chrétien, who has days left as prime minister, arrived in Nigeria Thursday.
Queen Elizabeth will officially open the meetings on Friday.

The political crisis in Zimbabwe will likely dominate the conference.
Zimbabwe was suspended from the Commonwealth last year after President
Robert Mugabe held onto power in elections that were widely viewed as
rigged.
Canada is pushing a compromise position that would see Zimbabwe's suspension
continue, but then be reviewed in six months to a year.

Written by CBC News Online staff

Blantyre - Shortly before leaving home for the Commonwealth Congress in
Nigeria on Thursday, Malawian President Bakili Muluzi warned Zimbabwean
President Robert Mugabe it was time he got his house in order.

"My brother, comrade Mugabe, and his Zanu-PF must realise the world is
changing in the direction of democracy. Laws that don't benefit the people
should be scrapped," he said.

This is the first time an African leader has publicly opposed Mugabe to such
an extent.

But Muluzi said he did not think Zimbabwe should be isolated to this extent
by the international community.

Malawi feels the international community should offer Zimbabwe a window of
opportunity to stop the people's suffering, he said.

Muluzi's comments come amid a great divide among African countries
concerning Zimbabwe's re-admittance to the Commonwealth.

Zambia said on Thursday it would ask for Zimbabwe to be re-admitted.

South Africa's stand is not yet clear.

Muluzi told journalists Mugabe needed to embrace democracy fully in a bid to
stop his country from falling apart completely.

      MORE than 1 000 Zimbabwean readers of the Daily News and its sister
weekly, Daily News on Sunday, will next week petition the High Court under
the Class Action Act to order the reopening of the two newspapers shut down
by the government two months ago.

      At least 1 017 people from various parts of the country had by Tuesday
this week appended their signatures to the petition that is being handled by
human rights advocacy group, the Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights (ZLHR).

      Several thousand more people are expected to have signed the petition
by the time it is filed at court next week.

      Information Minister Jonathan Moyo and state Media and Information
Commission (MIC) chairman Tafataona Mahoso are cited as the respondents in
the petition.

      The petitioners say that the state grossly violated their right to
information as enshrined in the constitution of Zimbabwe and in the
Universal Declaration of Human rights when it shut down the two newspapers
on September 12.

      The petition reads in part: "We as Zimbabwean citizens are being
denied access to diverse information.

      "We are also being denied the other side of news which we used to
obtain from the Daily News and the Daily News On Sunday, hence our right to
freedom of information outlined under the constitution of Zimbabwe and the
Bill of Rights are being trampled by the government's action."

      Armed police forcibly closed the two titles owned by private
publishing company, Associated Newspapers of Zimbabwe (ANZ), and had their
equipment seized following a ruling by the Supreme Court that ANZ was
operating its newspapers illegally because it had not registered them with
the MIC.

      But the citizens who are now taking the government to court say the
closure of the two newspapers was now forcing them to rely for news on
state-controlled newspapers, radio and television stations.

      Harare businessman Paddington Japajapa, who is leading the citizens,
said: "What the government is doing is muzzling the Press and the citizens
at the end are the ones who suffer because they have been denied diverse
views and different news angles."

      One of the signatories to the petition, Thabiso Makhalima, who is a
constitutional lawyer, said religious groups, political parties, civic
organisations and other interest groups whom the state media denied a
platform to propagate their views had been ruthlessly silenced by the
closure of the ANZ publications.

      Makhalima added: "The lives of the employees of ANZ have also been
jeopardised by government's shameful intolerance of dissent."

      The signatories say they will take their case to the country's highest
court the Supreme Court, if they fail to get relief from the High Court.

      The Class Act empowers a group or groups of people to take collective
legal action to initiate change or to lobby authorities for a certain cause.

      ANZ is the second media organisation to be closed by President Robert
Mugabe's government. Three years ago a private radio station, Joy TV, was
taken off air under unclear circumstances.

      Zimbabwe's Administrative Court, which is a branch of the country's
High Court, last month ordered the MIC to issue the ANZ newspapers with an
operating licence by Novemember 30.

      The MIC however has appealed to the Supreme Court against the ruling.

      Meanwhile Administrative Court judge Sello Nare is expected to deliver
judgment this week on another application by ANZ seeking permission to be
allowed to publish its newspapers pending the outcome of the MIC's appeal at
the Supreme Court.

      Nare, who is president of the Administrative Court in Zimbabwe's
second largest city of Bulawayo had to take over the case after president of
the court in Harare, Michael Majuru, recused himself following allegations
by the state-run Herald newspaper that he had been heard telling his friends
and relatives on separate occasions that he was going to rule in favour of
ANZ.

      AN unemployed man with a family to support and feed who lives in a
home where he cannot afford electricity or paraffin has a vision when he
goes out with an axe and chops down a tree for firewood.

      This man's short term thinking when he destroys a 30-year-old tree in
order to cook a meal is a daily vision called survival.

      A government minister with an expense account, luxury vehicle and
stately home had a vision when he went out and grabbed a productive and
profitable farm because he liked the house and garden and rather fancied
himself as a farmer.

      The short term thinking of the minister was not for the purpose of
survival but a vision based solely on selfish greed.

      When Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo announced that Zimbabwe
would not be invited to CHOGM this week, President Mugabe responded with
short term thinking.

      Speaking at a funeral of all places, President Mugabe first challenged
other African leaders to stand up for him, then threw insults at whites who
he called "a dangerous lot" and threatened to pull Zimbabwe out of the
Commonwealth.

      "If our sovereignty is what we have to lose to be readmitted into the
Commonwealth, well, we will say goodbye to the Commonwealth, and perhaps the
time has now come to say so."

      President Mugabe has tried to make the world believe that his vision
was to give land to the people when the facts on the ground proved that the
only vision was for ZANU PF to retain power - regardless of the cost.

      Pulling Zimbabwe out of the Commonwealth may help soothe President
Mugabe's bruised ego but it will increase our isolation and further
exacerbate the plight of Zimbabwe's collapsing economy.

      In the last week workers and journalists employed by the Daily News
have said they want terminal exit passages from the temporarily banned
newspaper.

      Their daily frustration has overwhelmed them and begun the process of
short term thinking. Accusations and counter accusations between management
and staff are flying and are suffocating the vision which we have all
strived so very hard to find and maintain – that of telling it like it is.

      For three years those of us who wrote for the Daily News did not do so
for either fame or fortune but in the pursuit of truth and a vision of a new
Zimbabwe.

      During those three years we have all made the ultimate sacrifice for
our country. There are few people outside of the ANZ who understand what
these three years have been like.

      We may have been applauded outside of Zimbabwe but have been
ostracised in our local communities. We cannot get other jobs and our
friends no longer think it safe to be seen with us.

      Our children and families have been victimised, we have been followed
and watched and some have been arrested. Others have been repeatedly
harassed by government agents, been held hostage by war veterans, even
beaten and tied to trees with chains by farm invaders.

      Full or part time writers we have stood together in pursuit of the
vision. We have survived and continued as editors have come and gone.

      At times we have worked without pay and have always turned the other
cheek when insults and insinuations were thrown at us by the State.

      Now we are forced to write under pseudonyms for an unknown and unseen
audience and in the process seem to be losing our identities and our
direction.

      The Daily News and her employees have been through hell but throughout
it all the long term vision shone brightly. It was not a one day vision of
survival or a view of selfish, greedy personal enrichment.

      Nor was it a vision of sour grapes or political perpetuation. It was a
long term vision of truth, democracy and good governance. God forbid that
vision dims now, so near the realisation of the goal.

      By The Litany Bird.

Daily Trust (Abuja)

December 4, 2003
Posted to the web December 4, 2003

Jibrin Abubakar

The concerned Youths Alliance of Nigeria, an amalgamation of 18 Youth
associations, has written a petition to the secretary-General of the
Commonwealth demanding sanctions against President Obasanjo over the
April/May elections in Nigeria.

A copy of the petition made available to Daily Trust says: "The Commonwealth
Observer Group which monitored the April 12th , 19th , and 3rd May, 2003
elections, reported wide spread malpractices, fraud and rigging, and of
course concluded that the elections were neither free nor fair."

It says that in so many respects, reports were strikingly similar or even
worse than the one returned on Zimbabwe's election.

"Obasanjo was allowed to get away with it. Indeed, rather than being
ostracised and shunned"' Obasanjo is being propped up by the same
commonwealth which has even offered him its most prestigious post of
chairmanship," it said.

The group regretted that the Commonwealth action of allowing president
Obasanjo to go scot free is like giving legitimacy to an illegitimate
government.

The Youths therefore demanded that the Commonwealth: "strip Obasanjo of his
can - do - no - wrong status, condemn his undemocratic actions, antics and
inactions, reschedule the CHOGM to a more suitable venue (where genuine
democracy thrives) and punish Obasanjo and his cronies for serially raping
democracy."

The petition has been copied to Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, the Queen
of England and Head of the Commonwealth of Nations, all presidents of member
nations, Prime Minister, Tony Blair, Dr. Kofi Annan, UN Secretary - General,
Dr. Nelson Mandela, former president of South Africa, Dr. Mahathir Mohammed,
former prime Minister of Malaysia, as well as Mr. William Jefferson Clinton,
former president of the United States of America.

      Gono, who started work on Monday, is expected to deliver a new
monetary policy statement within a fortnight.

      The government has in the past made no secret about its desire to keep
interest rates down to ensure the containment of its domestic debt as well
as to support production.

      The money market has been defying the low interest rate direction the
monetary authorities have sought to chart.

      The RBZ has, since May, been largely rejecting Treasury Bill bids as a
means of keeping the rates down, but this has put upward pressure on the
short-term investment rates which shot up as a result of the shortage
created by low TB holdings by financial institutions.

      Short-term interbank rates had opened the week at around 150 percent
but were spurred on by a tight market, which experienced huge shortages
amounting to $133 billion, over 330 percent up from last week’s closing
level of $30 billion.

      "It’s a big shortage," said Nyika Chidemhe, a money market analyst
with Highveld Financial Services.

      Dealers said banks were looking for money "at whatever cost" in a
market they said had been mopped up by year-end corporate tax payments.

      "I think it’s going to be short-lived," Nyika said. "I expect the
Reserve Bank to come up with measures to force rates down."

      RBZ director responsible for the financial markets, Stuart Kufeni, was
reported to have convened a hurried meeting late Tuesday afternoon amid
speculation that the central bank was considering injecting funds into the
market.

      12/4/2003 7:26:17 AM (GMT +2)

      THE ruling ZANU PF annual conference kicks off today in Masvingo amid
heightened anxiety over the state of the economy, which is ironically put
squarely on the shoulders of the party which has ruled Zimbabwe since
independence from Britain in 1980. Even though details of the agenda for the
conference are still sketchy, it is hoped that the state of the economy,
which has been collapsing under the party’s stewardship, takes centre stage.

      The frightening economic slump must have raised the pressure for the
ruling party, whose policies seem to have lost contact with reality.
Nothing, despite what the politicians might think, is more pressing than the
issue of the deteriorating economic situation in Zimbabwe today.

      This has since been confirmed by none other than the Minister of
Finance and Economic Development, Dr Herbert Murerwa, who three weeks ago
produced worse-than-feared economic data. He projected a gross domestic
product contraction of 13.2 percent.

      Zimbabweans, who have so far felt the sharpest edge of the knife under
the economic turmoil, will surely not be expecting too much if they demanded
that the conference should, in a departure from tradition, focus on economic
revival. Such demands would be in order even on ZANU PF, a party that has
all along been seemingly doing everything for political expediency.

      The long suffering Zimbabweans are fed up with good words of intent
that more-often-than-not come out of such conferences but do not usually
translate to much — they need action. It is therefore at this conference
that ZANU PF should assure disillusioned and frustrated Zimbabweans that it
has strategic vision and clarity of thinking that will allow it to rekindle
confidence in the sickly economy.

      It is time for the party, justifiably blamed for the country’s
economic woes, to have self-introspection with a view to cleaning up its act
and stimulate the economy. Otherwise the once revolutionary party risks
leaving a terrible legacy, characterised by obsolete socio-political and
economic structures.

      If that means having a no-holds-barred conference that even risks
splits and raising the ire of the old guard, so be it. We know only too
well, just like some founding members of the party, that talking straight
could lead to crossed lines. It has been a sad trait of the ruling party
that it is often those who want to make a change for the better who are
challenged and put on the defensive and not people who are bent on
preserving an untenable status quo. The fate of those who in the past
suggested workable austerity economic measures is only well-documented. They
were labelled economic saboteurs!

      Be that as it may, fear of being thrown out of the party or
stigmatised as economic saboteurs should not in any way shrink the resolve
of those well-meaning party members, if there are still any, from pushing
through economic revival to the top of the agenda. They should not be
intimidated by it.

      If anything it should strengthen their moral conviction as they unite
around the position that economic turnaround, and lack of implementation of
past key economic policies, are addressed. This can only be done by
flexible, courageous and evolutionising politicians — a rare breed in
Zimbabwe today.

      12/4/2003 8:00:25 AM (GMT +2)

      As the upward trend in domestic government debt and interest rates
continues, interest payments on domestic government debt are set to rise
from $152 billion this year to $996 billion in 2004.

      Domestic interest payments are expected to account for 11.4 percent of
total expenditure next year, up from 10.5 percent this year.

      The stock of domestic debt has risen from $44 billion in 1998 to $346
billion at the end of last year and is expected to end this year at about
$700 billion.

      In order to manage its domestic interest payment burden, government
intends to restructure its debt by replacing Treasury bills with government
stocks, which have not been issued for several years. Insurance companies
and pension funds are likely to come under pressure to take up the bonds in
order to meet prescribed asset requirements.

      Currently, domestic debt is dominated by two-year treasury bills,
which account for over 60 percent of the total debt. Most of these bills
will be maturing next year.

      Under the current dual interest rate policy, Government is expected to
continue capping interest rates on its borrowing instruments.

      Reflecting the gover-nment’s low interest rate policy, 91-day Treasury
bill yields this year have averaged 50 percent against an average inflation
rate of 365 percent.

      In comparison, in the year 2000, 91-day Treasury bill yields averaged
65 percent against while the average inflation rate was 56 percent.

      While domestic debt has grown significantly in absolute terms, the
ratio of domestic debt to GDP has fallen steeply over the past three years,
dropping from a peak of just over 50% in 2000 to an estimated 16 percent
this year. Again, this is reflection government’s strategy of keeping
interest rates low under a hyperinflationary environment. With Government
likely to continue controlling interest rates, the ratio of domestic debt to
GDP is expected to fall below 10 percent next year.

      In short, by controlling interest rates in a hyperinflation
environment, Government has managed to avoid falling into a debt trap.

      But this strategy cannot be pursued indefinitely. Our economic policy
makers need to be reminded of Stein’s Law — a famous law in economics —
which says: "Things that can’t go on forever, don’t". Meanwhile, the
statutory limit on government borrowing from the Reserve Bank is expected to
rise from $60 billion this year to $220 billion next year.

      Government is allowed to borrow 20 percent of the previous year’s
revenue in the form of an overdraft.

      Revenue receipts are projected at $1.1 trillion this year.

      Because of its highly inflationary nature, most governments have moved
away from overdraft borrowing from their central banks.

      Money market rates soar

      Short -term rates were on the rampage this week, with inter-bank
overnight rates skyrocketing to unprecedented levels of between 310 percent
and 320 percent yesterday.

      This situation has been caused by corporate tax-induced shortages in
the money market, with daily shortages of as high as $144 billion being
recorded on Monday.

      It appears interest rate volatility is becoming a common feature of
the local money market.

      In the past 30 days, overnight inter-bank rates have risen to 200
percent, plunged to levels of 75percent only to rise again to the current
levels of above 300 percent.

      Undoubtedly, markets would certainly welcome the central bank’s
intervention to prevent the prevailing wild interest rate gyrations.

      Meanwhile, the future of the Reserve Bank’s dual interest rate policy
has been thrown into uncertainty.

      In his 2004 budget statement on November 20, the Finance Minister said
government would continue to pursue an interest rate policy that seeks to
encourage growth on one hand and reduce inflation on the other hand.

      However, recent government statements have cast doubt on the efficacy
of this policy by saying that two-tier interest rates (and two tier exchange
rates) cannot promote economic activity.

      It would be interesting to see what the forthcoming monetary policy
statement will have to say in the wake of these statements.

      12/4/2003 7:50:36 AM (GMT +2)

      Africa is richly endowed with natural resources in sharp contrast to
the plight of its citizens enthralled in numerous ineffective systems.

      The natural resources are so abound that it really pains to see their
plunder while deserving Africans live in abject poverty.

      Ironically in the 1960s, Africa was comparable to Asia but now, less
than half a century later, most African economies are a hopeless basket
case.

      In addition to the perils of civil wars, millions of Africans live on
less than US$1 a day. The major differences arise from the characteristics
of the people who live in the two continents.

      In addition to the people, there are the structural problems which
hamper African progress. Let us, in this article, concern ourselves with the
application of the African on his resources before we briefly look at
structural problems.

      Despite interference from developed nations, which many African
politicians want to highlight, our worst enemy is ourselves.

      Nobody but ourselves can fight for our cause, so the harder we try to
resolve human and structural systems the better.

      Most African economies have been through some form of colonialism.
During the colonial period, the owners of capital were the Europeans and it
is in these economic entities that Africans found formal work.

      Since these entities belonged to the then Europeans, a colonial
culture developed.

      This culture dictated to every worker that the economic entity belongs
to the foreigner and you have nothing to do with it except slaving therein
for little or no reward.

      The worker therefore resorted to working only when there was close
supervision.

      Once the supervisor turned to look the other side the worker did his
own thing.

      It is this culture that independent Africa inherited and perpetuated,
even after the ownership of economic interests had shifted to the
indigenous.

      Still the employee thinks that the organisation which he/she works for
makes him/her slave. He/she therefore cannot identify with its goals.

      How then can economic progression be realised if people are not
putting their very best in organisations; which entities, when aggregated
realise economic objectives? From political colonialism followed political
patronage from African brothers in governments.

      Workers are employed more on political considerations than merit.

      You realise quasi government organisations being run by "politically
correct individuals" and they in turn appoint among their ranks politically
correct subordinates.

      Once political considerations are applied in selecting individuals for
work, accountability mainly is focused on political concerns and less on the
realisation of work goals.

      Objectives of organisa-tions are prostituted for political gain and
noble ideas never see the light of day as the primary objective of the
African politician is power.

      People’s allegiance to a particular political party and ideology is
rewarded as opposed to pursuing organisational and economic objectives.

      The communication throughout the organisa-tion is clear, your
performance is not worthwhile but political allegiance.

      This conduct spills over to public companies where the executives, in
a similar way, offer lucrative remuneration packages to their right hand men
while leaving the rest to wallow with paltry salaries.

      And as this syndrome sinks deeper into the economy, it is performance
of the economy that suffers. Many African economies are very vulnerable to
economic shocks like foreign currency problems, energy supply problems and
international relations problems.

      These economic and political shocks usually result in massive
retrenchments as companies rationalise their operations to suit the
political and economic dictates.

      The main worry should go to the retrenched and in this respect the
effort to cater for these people by the South African government through the
recently launched Expanded Public Works Programme should be commended. It is
a burden on the fiscus but at least a step in the right direction.

      In conclusion, it maybe useful to quote the NEPAD positioning document
where it says "… the hopes of Africa’s people for better life can no longer
rest on the magnanimity of others". Only Africans can better themselves!

      John Nyamunda is a Harare based freelance writer who can be contacted
on jnyamunda-@yahoo.co.uk

      Commentators on South Africa’s relations with Zimbabwe, especially on
the current crisis, regard Zimbabwe as a province of South Africa. The
arguments proffered on why South Africa is not acting tough on Zimbabwe i.e.
the liberation movements brotherhood, African culture’s respect for adults
and the elderly and the uneasy relations in the ruling Tripartite Alliance,
are plausible. It is not easy though to understand how respect for adults by
President Mbeki has anything to do with his handling of the regime in
Zimbabwe, as he is known for his tongue lashings.

      In the heated atmosphere that surrounds the issue of Zimbabwe, the
tendency to pose as high priests at the inquisition, hungry for the blood of
the accused, has taken root — as though to demonise and punish is the way to
solve the most difficult problems. In this situation, as in war, the truth
soon becomes a casualty.2

      This message was meant for critics of the South African government.
And no punches were held! There could be more to quiet diplomacy than this
African traditional respect for adults by a team of a rainbow people who
spent most of their time in exile, some outside Africa!

      To understand the anxiety of the South African government over the
MDC, critics have suggested that it is prudent to view it in the context of
an advent of labour backed political parties in the region. It is
significant to note that Frederick Chiluba’s labour-backed MMD took over
government in Zambia, and across the Zambezi River Morgan Tsvangirai, who
like Chiluba, was secretary general of the ZCTU, was headed for State House.
The prospect of COSATU following suit across the Limpopo with a former
secretary general who is still very much popular with the grassroots could
have been undesirable to Pretoria!

      Another view is that the glaring imbalances in Zimbabwe 20 years after
independence are similar to those in South Africa nearly 10 years after
apartheid. The South African government could not be seen not to be taking
the side of the poor and powerless. It is most likely that when the people
rise up to challenge the status quo, the South African government, like its
neighbour across the river, will use the same measures to retain and
consolidate power.

      President Mugabe received a hero’s welcome and a standing ovation at
the funeral of Walter Sisulu. This suggests that the grassroots in South
Africa identify with him and his struggle. Indeed, the grassroots outside
Zimbabwe see the suffering and human rights abuses as inevitable and
expected in a struggle. In this case, one cannot condemn President Mugabe
without alienating the electorate.

      It would be interesting to see to what extent the Zimbabwe debate will
become an election issue in South Africa. With the recovery of the South
African currency whose fall critics once attributed to the Zimbabwean
crisis, the opposition in South Africa can only argue on principles.

      In the region, South Africa knows well to go by consensus. After the
Lesotho debacle of 1998 and the polarity that resulted out of the DRC
crisis, South Africa knows that it has to act by consensus; otherwise it
will be treated like an ungrateful big bully in the region. Pretoria
appreciates that it has to shake off the "Big Brother" image.

      Similarly in the context of Africa, apart from NEPAD and the AU, there
is a tussle for leadership of the continent. South Africa wants to house the
AU Parliament while Libya is also interested in the same.

      With the possibility of Africa getting a permanent seat in the
expanded UN Security Council, South Africa may soon be fighting it out with
some other African country. To get these positions, South Africa needs more
than its economic muscle. It needs to be seen as a champion of Africa and
the Third World that stands up to the West. It has to be "truly African".

      During the tyrannical reign of Sani Abacha in Nigeria, South Africa
had a diplomatic row with Abuja emanating from President Mandela’s protest
at the execution of the Ogoni leader Ken Saro Wiwa, that resulted in one
Nigerian minister taking a jibe at Mandela, saying he was the African head
of a white country, meaning he was a puppet of the powerful white minority.
President Mbeki and the ANC government would not want to be seen as such.

      It is ironic that those Zimbabweans at the forefront of criticising
Pretoria’s position on Zimbabwe are quick to point out that Zimbabwe’s
descent into hell was precipitated by Harare’s ill-advised adventure in the
DRC. If it was wrong for President Mugabe to use the principles argument to
join the fray in the DRC instead of being practical, why is it not right for
President Mbeki to be practical and avoid the principles argument in quiet
diplomacy? Is it because Zimbabweans want to have their cake and eat it?

      President Mbeki and the ANC may be short on principles but they are
very practical. To understand quiet diplomacy demands a study of the ANC.
While many in South Africa were expecting the ANC to act tough on the
National Party during the transitional period, it chose to give the
apartheid regime an exit route, a safe landing.

      The ANC chooses pragmatism as an alternative to what they call
"Megaphone Diplomacy". President Mbeki himself had unpleasant experiences in
Zimbabwe, Angola and Zambia during their struggle and if he were vengeful he
would be taking it personally against Harare and Luanda. But no, he is too
smart for that. He once asked critics of quiet diplomacy in South Africa
what they expect him to do. No one could come up with any realistic
strategy.

      He asked what he would do if he threatened President Mugabe, whom he
described as very sensitive to criticism — which everybody knows, and the
man digs in his heels or tell him to go and hang. What will he do? Erect an
electric fence as President Festus Mogae is doing in Botswana?

      While many expect South Africa to be using its economic leverage on
Zimbabwe, it is unrealistic to expect it to be going it alone. While Festus
Mogae and Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal are on record for condemning Harare,
they have since been voting with the rest of the Third World against tougher
measures on Zimbabwe!

      It is significant to note that a number of development meetings
between donor European counties and recipient SADC and African countries
failed because the Africans and later Africa, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP)
countries insisted on Zimbabwe’s equal participation.

      To expect South Africa, which is a member of the community of
developing countries, to have gone against the grain is to expect too much.
In African wisdom, to cross a crocodile infested river, you cross in single
file. Pretoria does not need to agree and support Harare to tolerate its
wayward neighbour. Quiet diplomacy is about influence and patience. Those
following post-apartheid South Africa’s strides in world politics would
appreciate her tenacity in consensus building.

      Over the past few years, South Africa managed to rally support for a
judicious AU as opposed to the outlandish idea of a single country, the
United States of Africa as proposed by the eccentric Brother leader, Maummar
Gadhafi. Many counties including, Zimbabwe initially ridiculed NEPAD but now
if there are still countries opposed to NEPAD, they are doing so in their
closets.

      The role any country in the region can play can best be seen through
the role of SADC. SADC’s intervention is limited by the absence of any
functional and relevant structures that respond to the present crisis. The
AU avoids discussing Zimbabwe because they see it as a North-South issue.
The UN cannot, as the Third World perceive President Mugabe as a hero, as
demonstrated by the standing ovation he received in Johannesburg at the UN
Summit on Sustainable Development and similarly in New York at the UN
Children’s Summit. The Zimbabwe issue has at some point threatened dividing
the EU as from time to time, others like France tend to differ on the way
forward.

      In a democracy such as South Africa is trying to create, the citizenry
form their foreign policy, foreign policies by design are driven by
self-interest. As argued above, South Africa’s foreign policy on Zimbabwe as
seen through quiet diplomacy is influenced by the nature of the conflict in
Zimbabwe, the reality of politics in the Third World, the grassroots
politics in South Africa and Pretoria’s ambitions as a growing world power.

      As presented, South Africa believes in consensus and exit routes. This
means critics of quiet diplomacy ought to be convincing the citizens of
South Africa who unfortunately revere Harare, to see the other side of
developments north of the Limpopo. This means in our view an effective
lobbying strategy should not just focus on institutions but common citizens.

      When there is outrage in South Africa, the region and the Third World,
governments will act on their errant neighbour. Those unable to act in the
face of domestic pressure will simply lose support. "No collateral no gain."
South Africa and other regional governments need to be helped to act. And
the help can only come from the affected or victim citizens, in this case
Zimbabweans.

      It is only fair to appreciate that responsible governments are
accountable to their electorate and would only take instruction from their
people. Moral arguments are not enough reason to cause the taking of
unpopular decisions on behalf of the electorate. Zimbabweans can testify to
this. Zimbabwe entered the DRC adventure ostensibly on moral grounds but
Zimbabweans, who are now paying the price for the ill-advised decision, did
not support the move. This does not mean that Africans, indeed Zimbabweans,
are averse to supporting friends in need. They need to be part of the
decision. And they can only do this from the point of information.

      If the people of Khayelitsha, Soweto, KwaMashu etc think Zimbabwe’s
newspaper of choice, the Daily News, is an illegal newspaper operated by the
former colonial master to undermine a legitimate African government, it
would be very difficult for any government to act otherwise, morals or no
morals!

      1Tony Rich, Legacies of the Past? The Results of the 1980 Election in
Midlands Province. Zimbabwe, in: J.D. Peel & Terence Ranger (eds.) Past and
Present in Zimbabwe, Manchester University Press in assoc. with Journal of
the International Africa Institute, Manchester: 1983, p. 48.

      2 His speech published by the Guardian

      FFCZ managing director Collen Magurah said the facility was aimed at
making the importation of fuel by companies and other organisations cost
effective as they would not be prejudiced of potential income as is the case
when they pay fuel suppliers for the commodity upfront.

      He said the FFCZ facility offers fuel importers the opportunity to
earn interest on their money while waiting for the delivery of the product.

      "We have introduced this facility after realising that most people
cannot import fuel because of the stringent conditions placed by foreign
fuel suppliers," said Magurah.

      One of the fuel suppliers’ conditions is that importers should pay for
the commodity upfront, at least 10 days before it is delivered.

      "This requirement has acted as a barrier to most institutions and
companies wishing to import fuel because there is an opportunity cost
involved by paying upfront for something that will only be delivered 10 to
14 days later," added Magurah.

      It may take anything up to a fortnight for fuel imports to land in
Zimbabwe.

      Magurah noted that, because of the requirement to pay upfront, local
fuel importers were being forced to forego interests that could be earned if
that money was invested on the money or equities markets.

      "For instance, where an importer is asked to pay $100 million in
advance before the consignment is delivered, he or she forfeits at least $15
million a month or $500 000 a day in interest, money that could be earned if
it was invested on the money market," he said.

      Investments on the money market are currently fetching anything in the
region of 120 percent interest per annum.

      Because of the exchange rate vagaries and high risk involved, most
fuel suppliers are demanding payment upfront to facilitate the importation
of the scarce commodity.

      Under this facility, FFCZ does not import any fuel but only provides
guarantee equivalent to the amount invested with it.

      A company intending to import fuel would approach FFCZ and invest with
the financial services group an amount not less than the value of the fuel
it intends to import.

      FFCZ would then provide a guarantee to the fuel supplier. Upon
delivery of the commodity, FFCZ will pay the supplier for the fuel and the
importer will get interest that would have accumulated during the time they
would have waited for the fuel.

      "The beauty of the facility is that the importer does not spend
anything until the fuel is delivered and all the interest earned from the
investment is paid to the investor," said Magurah.

      "All they have to do is to invest money with us for the whole month
and give us their schedules for that money and we guarantee supplies," he
said.

      FFCZ only pays the supplier on presentation of a delivery note from
the importer confirming the delivery of the commodity.

      Zimbabwe is reeling under the throes of crippling fuel shortage,
spawned by swingeing foreign currency shortages that have rocked the country
for the past four years.

      The FFCZ facility comes in at a time when the government has just
deregularised the fuel sector allowing companies and other organisations
that can afford, to import their own fuel.

      12/4/2003 7:37:05 AM (GMT +2)

      As the latest jingle designed supposedly to tout the "spectacular"
success of the government’s land reform programme continues to raise hackles
across the nation, one angry and hungry cynic commented scathingly; "With
the powers-that-be-evidently regarding the serious business of productive
farming as a song-and-dance affair, is it any wonder that millions of
Zimbabweans are starving?"

      As one of those millions fighting the losing battle of trying to keep
the wolf away from the door, I am in total agreement with this doubting
Thomas’s observation.

      If you have sat before your television set watching those anarchic and
lewd scenes while trying to ignore the constant hunger pangs that are now
part of everyday life, I am certain you too have wondered what exactly is
being celebrated in that devil-may-care performance.

      Government apologists have offered a number of unconvincing defences
for the sometimes downright obscene acts in the jingle. One is that the
throw-all-caution-to-the-wind dancing and aggressive phrasing of the lyrics
in the ditty enable Zimbabweans to look back to the good old days when they
observed their own traditions.

      But the government propagandists have missed the point altogether.
They cannot hope to win anyone over by deliberately using diversionary
tactics to mislead the public. The last thing hungry Zimbabweans need right
now is an irrelevant reminder of their cultural heritage. Neither is this
the declared goal of the land reform programme. What the people want is food
in their stomachs, on their tables, on store shelves and in those grain
silos featured in the advertisement.

      After three years of being told: "Our land is our prosperity," the
people now need tangible proof that the government’s violent seizure of land
from white farmers beginning in 2000 was a well considered and principled
decision and not one spurred by political expediency.

      The trouble is that Zimbabweans cannot find viable and verifiable
evidence of food abundance and spectacular farming success apart from what
they see on television. With food shortages as widespread as they are and
hunger as pervasive as it is, the SENDEKERA MWANA WEVU ditty can easily be
perceived as an insensitive celebration of the suffering of the masses.

      It is now heresy to state that the land reform programme has not been
as successful as it has been vaunted to be. Even the government-appointed
Utete Commission admits as much in its recently released report.

      The latest jingle is proof that the less success the government can
show to justify the havoc wreaked by farm invasions since 2000, the more
strenuous its efforts become in trying to persuade a sceptical public
otherwise. The attempt to build a superficial image of the good life through
garish choreography can be counter-productive. Advertising that creates a
phoney world in which everything is rosy against a backdrop of the worst
humanitarian crisis this country has ever faced since independence is both
fallacious and hypocritical. The government copy writers and advertising
strategists should surely know that they can not win over a hungry
population by appealing to prurient instincts as evidenced by the suggestive
and sometimes indecent gyrations of the dancers in the video.

      The recruitment of children as performers in these scenes does little
to advance the propagandists’ cause. Why then is so much faith placed in
this type of message?

      I think the answers can be found in a comment made by writer Wilbur
Schramm many years ago with respect to communist propaganda: "If the
communists have discovered anything new, it is not the power of the word,
but the power of a dedicated, disciplined, ruthless combat party."

      I have come to the unavoidable conclusion that the ruling party’s
preparedness to make extravagant claims that are so acutely at variance with
reality is a metaphor for its policy of riding roughshod over the people
instead of consulting them. Things have to be what they are claimed to be
simply because the party says so.

      The powers-that-be have deliberately chosen to ignore the fact that
along with the right to persuade comes the right not to be deceived, misled
or befuddled. Excessive and repetitive information that is not borne out by
realities on the ground becomes a form of harassment. But can the constant
drip of party doctrine erode the judgment of a hungry viewer to the extent
that he believes what he sees on his television screen or hears on his radio
can assuage his hunger? I think not. There is a point at which "an
unconscious resistance sets in to shield the eye and ear from assault" as
one observer has put it. That point was reached and passed a long time ago
with respect to "Hondo yeminda". The thing the ruling party is advertising
in the current blitz can be its misguided belief that it can make things
happen through coercion and by decree. A tall order when it comes to growing
enough food to feed the nation on television screens and radio broadcasts!

      12/4/2003 7:29:25 AM (GMT +2)

      A feature that has become peculiar with recent government economic
policy statements is the deliberate avoidance of external sector policies
needed to solve the current foreign currency crisis especially the exchange
rate and re-engagement with the international community so as to unlock
foreign direct investment inflows.

      Yet an effective and credible exchange rate policy, like monetary and
fiscal policies, plays a highly significant role in the ability of the
economy to attain optimal productive capacity.

      As a result, a sound and credible exchange rate policy should be
viewed as a key tool in economic stabilisation and adjustment.

      It is, therefore, not economically possible to de-link domestic
economic policies like monetary, fiscal and supply-side policies from
exchange rate policies.

      All these policies work together as a system to achieve desirable
results. In fact, exchange rate reforms should be the centrepiece of any
economic revival programme.

      In short, an exchange rate policy is part and parcel of the
macroeconomic policy.

      Given that government has promised to "rigorously implement" fiscal
and monetary stabilisation measures so as to reduce inflation in addition to
sector-specific structural measures, I have found it imperative to talk
about exchange rate issues. For a long time now, government has been
battling to find a workable exchange rate system but to no avail.

      After abandoning the fixed exchange rate system that had been in use
in the 1980s, the government embarked on economic reforms in 1991 and
operated a dual exchange rate system until June 1994.

      The authorities adopted a managed float exchange rate system the
following month but due to a Budget deficit-propelled inflation and
depletion of foreign exchange reserves to continually defend the currency
the exchange rate had, by August 1995, become overvalued resulting in an
erosion of our export competitiveness. Eventually, the foreign currency
reserves got depleted and the currency crashed in November 1997 and starting
in February 1999. The exchange rate was fixed against the U.S. dollar and
has continually been adjusted since but not in line with inflation trends, a
situation that has seen it being grossly over-valued hence the current
foreign currency shortages and emergency of a vibrant parallel market which
the authorities have failed to curb.

      It is against this background of a failure by government to find a
workable exchange rate policy and has become stuck with a fixed exchange
rate system that proposals have been made for it to gradually move to a
floating exchange rate system.

      The major problem, however, is the apparent fear by government to just
let the currency go by floating it because of the short-term political and
economic consequences.

      As a result, proposals have been made for a soft lending approach
through use of an auction system in the management of the exchange rate from
the current fixed to a market-related floating exchange rate.

      This is almost the same as the current Reserve Bank Treasury Bill
tender system. The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) first raised
this proposal in July 2002.

      In addition to facilitating an exchange rate regime change, the other
purpose of the auction system is to generate information to buyers and
sellers of foreign currency about the realistic price of foreign currency.

      There are many trade and exchange relations in which more often than
not a piece of information relevant to the transaction may be known to one
party but not to the other.

      Such information asymmetry is corrected by an auction system just like
in the case of the Treasury Bill tender system hence the constant rejections
of higher bids by the RBZ as the banks know where interest rates should be
based on inflation and liquidity conditions on the money market. An
advantage of an auction system is that it is more stable than dealer markets
in times of shortages as it is the buyer who sets the price.

      There exists huge literature on designing an optimal foreign currency
auction system. Two well-known auction systems for the determination of the
exchange rate are the Dutch Auction System (DAS) and the Marginal Pricing
Auction System (MPAS).

      There is a third less known method called the Reserve Pricing Approach
(RPA). In the DAS, each successful bidder pays his bid price until the
market clears. The market-clearing price is the marginal exchange rate.

      Under the MPAS, a single rate, the most appreciated bid price at which
the available foreign exchange is exhausted, is applied to all successful
bidders. Bidders who have offered rates more depreciated than the
market-clearing rate received all the foreign exchange they bid for at
marginal price; those whose bid rates are more appreciated will not receive
foreign exchange; and those whose bid price is equal to the market-clearing
rate will receive only part of what they bid for on the basis of an
allocative rule. The RPA auction method hinges on the use of a reserve price
for foreign exchange, which is the most appreciated exchange rate at the
central bank would undertake to supply foreign exchange.

      It should be noted that the auction system does not completely
eliminate the parallel market in as much as the Treasury bill auction system
will not meet the requirements of all market players. There will always be
some primary dealers that will find themselves short and will have to find
some overnight accommodation at penal rates either from the RBZ itself or
the inter-bank market. In the foreign currency market, once the auction
system is up and running the monetary authorities should then prepare for a
unification of the parallel and official markets. An important institutional
arrangement developed to absorb the parallel market into the legal foreign
exchange system is the Bureau de Change. The key objectives behind the
institutionalisation of the foreign currency bureaus, therefore, include the
elimination of the illegal parallel market, capture of the main market
forces directly behind the determination of the exchange rate and the
subsequent absorption of the parallel/bureau market into a single foreign
exchange market. Against this background the Government should legalise all
Bureaux de Change it abolished last year without delay if it is serious
about implementing viable exchange rate reforms needed to solve the current
foreign currency shortages! Presenting the 2003 National Budget on 14
November 2002, the Minister of Finance abolished Bureaux de Change accusing
them of causing foreign currency leakages and fuelling the parallel foreign
market.

      Having said all this, it should be noted that exchange rate reform
involves a tremendous amount of institutional and foreign exchange support,
sound fiscal and monetary policies and judicious trade and price regimes.
All this must, of necessity be implemented within an enabling macroeconomic
environment. This is because the nature of macroeconomic policy has a major
bearing on the effectiveness of exchange policy. For instance, chronic
fiscal deficits, expansionary monetary policy, trade deficits and a high
debt service ratio, as is currently the case in Zimbabwe, have adverse
consequences on exchange rate stability irrespective of the choice of
exchange rate regime. The fiscal deficit and expansionary monetary policy
through low interest rates increases domestic demand for foreign exchange,
while trade deficits and high debt service reduces availability of foreign
currency to satisfy domestic demand. As a result, as demand rises while
supply falls, other things being equal, the domestic price of foreign
exchange rises. This is exactly what happened in Zimbabwe and the onus is
upon Government to address the situation if we are to have an improvement in
foreign currency inflows.

Succession lottery roll-over

By Michael Hartnack

Zimbabwe’s politburo secretary for information Nathan Shamuyarira dropped a
diplomatic bombshell Monday, blowing apart South Africa’s scenario for
"quiet diplomacy" that would yield a dignified exit for Robert Mugabe by
mid-2004. Far from Mugabe announcing his retirement at the Zanu PF annual
conference in Masvingo this week, as South Africa has hinted for months, the
subject of the succession is not even on the agenda, Shamuyarira told state
radio. "The whole thing will be done at the 'people's congress' in December
2004. That will be the place for debating the succession and related
issues," disclosed Shamuyarira, former foreign minister and principal
spokesman for the ruling party. While South Africa has been pressing for an
interim government of national unity, commentators in Zimbabwe have been
warning that Mugabe, who turns 80 in February, has no intention of stepping
down before the next presidential elections - due in March 2008 - if then.
Talk of transition was a ploy both to diffuse foreign criticism and trap the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change into a coalition that would
discredit them with voters.

On the premise Mugabe would step down possibly by June, South African
President Thabo Mbeki has tried to pressure MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai,
and Zimbabweans generally, to abandon the idea of fresh presidential
elections, or an openly determined succession, in favour of a
behind-the-scenes lottery in which they may shorten the odds of getting an
"acceptable" Zanu PF personality by agreeing to take part in the gamble
under Mugabe's rules. South Africa suggested that by joining with civil
society, the current political establishment, friendly neighbours and a
tolerant Commonwealth, the MDC should have been able to maximise the odds
for an amenable candidate getting the presidential first prize. However,
Shamuyarira's latest words confirm fears that each time the eagerly awaited
lottery draw is due, what will be announced is not a new name but a cheerful
statement that, due to unfortunate circumstances, the prize has been carried
over.

The South African government has failed to understand the most powerful Zanu
PF succession faction, including Joseph Made at "agriculture", Patrick
Chinamasa at "justice", and Jonathan Moyo at the equally fictitious
"information", is the Mugabe faction who want him to stay on to 2008 - and
beyond if possible. Under these circumstances, there will be no genuine
"draw" for the succession until Mugabe has a health/palace power crisis.
When the draw finally does comes under those forced circumstances it will be
hastily convened and fraught with peril for the entire region. Most
Zimbabweans refuse to accept these dangerous odds, and want the Commonwealth
to help, now, in having this whole gamble declared illegal. In the absence
of an open selection process and fair elections, Mugabe might be succeeded
by a member of his Zanu PF hierarchy who helped drop several thousand people
down mineshafts in the 1980s, looted big time from the Congo in the 1990s,
and treated himself to a farm or three after 2000.

In the past, Africa has run on personalities rather than policies, and no
one is more obsessed with personalities than Mugabe himself. Hear what he
said on Friday at the graveside of an obscure party apparatchik who was
granted national hero status. Mugabe did more than threaten to "say goodbye
to the Commonwealth'' for refusing to invite him to its summit in Nigeria.
The state funeral was to remind the faithful what cradle-to-grave perks come
the way of those who stick by the man with the jam ladle, in a land where
ordinary people queue for the basic loaf of bread. Mugabe loves eulogies for
heroes: dead men tell no tales, neither do they argue with whatever opinions
he may ascribe to them. His methods are based on being able to sway
individual personalities by bribery, flattery or threat. At the graveside,
Mugabe uttered infantile personal abuse against Australian Prime Minister
John Howard as "genetically modified, because of the criminal ancestor he
derives from". Would any white politician, anywhere in the modern world,
survive uttering such racist remarks about a black personality?  Whites, he
said "remain a dangerous lot and we should be warned about that."

And then he turned on his fellow black Africans. No one could have done more
than Mbeki to keep Mugabe in power. But in a clear reference to Mbeki and
other African presidents committed to the New Economic Partnership for
African Development, Mugabe attacked leaders "who are apologetic about being
nationalistic...others who fear to be complete Africans, hesitate to be in
complete solidarity with us." "There were those who feared to be associated
with Zimbabweans because Zimbabweans were said to be taking the white man's
land. They fear Robert Mugabe," he said. "Once we have given Africa back her
pride of place, only then can we talk about a successful renaissance," he
added, in a jibe at Mbeki's hopes. Some analysts in Zimbabwe think Mbeki
dreads being arraigned before a newly reconstituted Race Classification
Board, chaired by Mugabe, that will declare him "non-African" and therefore
ineligible to work in the region. In Mugabe's test anyone who expresses
distress at the sight of people, black or white, farmers or workers, being
robbed and murdered by self-styled ex-guerrillas is not truly African. The
same goes for anyone horrified at the prospect of  5,5 million Zimbabweans
starving next year.

Mugabe has a personality profile typical of his generation of nationalist
leaders - the alienated Third World intellectual.  Tsvangirai, 51, Mugabe's
only serious rival for the presidency if there were ever a free and open
poll, is from a completely different breed. In the past, Africa ran on
personalities first and policies second. South Africa's line that Zimbabwe
should concentrate on getting an amiable new Zanu PF personality in charge
and worry about the policies later is therefore understandable, but long out
of date. Zimbabweans anyway do not want the "One nation, one party, one
leader" philosophy that marked states such as Zambia in their early decades
of independence. They feel there is no safe substitute for free and fair
elections.

Harare - Zimbabwe will run out of the staple maize grain by January unless
President Robert Mugabe's government makes an urgent appeal for more aid, a
senior member of the opposition said on Thursday.

Zimbabwe has suffered food shortages for the last three years, with critics
pointing mainly to disruptions in agriculture linked to the government's
controversial land reforms.

Aid agencies say 5.5 million people in the country - more than a third of
the country's population - will need food aid by year-end.

Renson Gasela, shadow agriculture minister for the Movement for Democratic
Change, said Zimbabwe had just enough maize to last until the end of
January. This included 346 000 tons received after the government appealed
to donors for 700 000 tons of grain.

The cash-strapped country, which has suffered chronic shortages of foreign
currency and fuel since 1999, is unable to import its own food.

"If disaster is to be averted, I further appeal to the donors to come to the
rescue of the suffering people of Zimbabwe," Gasela told a news conference.

But he said the United Nations World Food Programme, which has spearheaded a
food aid campaign for Zimbabwe, could only act on a formal request from
Mugabe's government.

The Herald (Harare)

December 4, 2003
Posted to the web December 4, 2003

Harare

FUEL supplies in Harare improved yesterday, resulting in the dropping of
prices at some service stations in the city.

The dropping of the prices was also attributed to a recent deal in which oil
companies were allowed to use the National Oil Company of Zimbabwe's
pipeline to transport petroleum products from Beira.

Mobil service stations were selling petrol at $2 650 a litre, with diesel
going for $2 550 a litre.

Before that, petrol used to cost between $3 000 and $3 500 a litre.

Total service stations were selling petrol at $2 900 a litre but BP service
stations sold it at $3 200 a litre while Exor sold it for $3 100 a litre.

The high prices of petrol were due to high transport costs incurred by oil
companies using road haulage trucks to bring in the commodity.

Those service stations selling the commodity at prices between $3 000 and $3
500 a litre were expected to lower the prices in due course as the deal with
Noczim begins to hold.

Oil companies said in a statement countrywide reports indicated there had
been an improvement in fuel supplies over the past seven days.

But the companies said there were different prices from company to company.

They said the different prices were due to different cost structures of
transportation, foreign currency availability and other logistics.

"The variable rates in fuel prices are also due to economies of scale -
order quantity, cost of product versus overheads and logistical capability,"
said the companies in the oil industry bulletin, Fuel Facts.

Most fuel companies were this week expected to finalise their agreements
with Noczim to use the pipeline to transport their products.

A technical committee to oversee the implementation of the deal has already
been formed.

Financial Gazette (Harare)

December 4, 2003
Posted to the web December 4, 2003

Givemore Nyanhi
Harare

A PROLIFERATION of dubious money lending companies could tarnish the image
of the sector, which has experienced growth despite Zimbabwe's economic
crisis, a sector representative told The Financial Gazette.

The Zimbabwe Association of Micro-Finance Institutions (ZAMFI) chairman,
Jestias Rushwaya, said most micro-finance companies were charging exorbitant
interest rates and imposing stringent loan application requirements on
desperate clients who ended up losing their properties to the loan sharks.

The burgeoning money-lending sector has experienced an astronomic rise in
the number of small- to medium-scale companies operating in the country due
to the economic downturn prevailing in the country.

Rushwaya said the increase in the number of players in the sector was riding
on the back of the escalating costs of living due to runaway inflation,
increasing unemployment and the growth of the informal sector.

He, however, said the sector had unfortunately seen the rise of unscrupulous
dealers who were not sympathetic to the plight of the suffering people.

The Financial Gazette established during its investigations during the week
that most micro-finance companies operating in and around Harare and
Bulawayo were charging more than 50 percent per month, which translates to
600 percent per annum.

"We charge 50 percent interest per month and the interest is due exactly 30
days after lending the money," a spokesperson for one micro-finance company
in the city centre, said.

She said their rates were high because, in the long run, they needed to pay
for administration costs and that they needed to keep their bottom line
ahead of inflation.

Currently year-on-year inflation is pegged at 525.8 percent.

The Money Lenders and Interest Rates Act of 1985 stipulates that money
lenders operating in the country charge interest rates of not more than 30
percent per annum.

Rushwaya, however, slammed the practice as unethical. He said: " These
people are not registered with our organisation because it has a code of
ethics that protects our clients.

"Every member registered with our organisation is not allowed to charge such
exorbitant rates. Frankly speaking, the rates they are charging are illegal
and they are shamelessly ripping off their clients."

He, however, said the statutory interest charge on loans needed to be
revised upwards to around 90 percent per annum due to the highly
inflationary environment.

Zimbabwe's protracted economic crisis has seen thousands of workers, mostly
those in the under-performing agriculture and manufacturing sectors,
bloating the unemployment level to over 70 percent.

The majority of both the employed and unemployed population has, as a
result, been forced to resort to borrowing from money-lenders either to
start small businesses or to settle urgent family commitments.

Some of the conditions for borrowing from the money-lenders entail
submitting, together with standard requirements demanded by other banks,
personal security in the form of stoves, refrigerators, television sets and
radios whose cost at times is 10 times above the loan amounts.

Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa in his 2004 National Budget presented last
week said: "Rapid development of informal and parallel markets for both
goods and foreign exchange are entrenching a growing shadow economy, with
rising incidences of rampant corruption.

"Work and business ethics are fast disappearing as people aspire and search
for overnight wealth."

Analysts said that speculative activity was negatively affecting the economy
and contributing to the high inflation rate.

"Controlling the speculative activity running riot in our economy also
involves curbing the illegal activities of money lending institutions that
charge very high interest rates," the analyst said.

Rushwaya, who is also the chairman of the regional Southern Africa
Micro-finance and Capacity Building Facility (SAMCAF), an umbrella body for
micro-finance lenders in countries in the SADC region, agreed saying that as
long as the money lending companies were not regulated, they would continue
to contribute implicitly to runaway inflation.

He said a taskforce to deal with the micro-finance sector was already in
existence comprising of various stakeholders in the education, economic and
business sectors to lobby government on curtailing the operations of the
companies as well as to review upwards the current lending rates.

Zimbabwe has more than 3 000 companies operating in the micro-finance
industry but more than two-thirds of the companies operate illegally and are
not properly registered.

Zamfi is the only organisation that represents micro-finance companies but
puts more emphasis on development lending rather than consumer finance.

"We do not encourage consumer lending because it is consumptive. Our
organisation is geared towards poverty alleviation and some of our
registered members include Cottco and the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe,"
Rushwaya said.

Financial Gazette (Harare)

December 4, 2003
Posted to the web December 4, 2003

Givemore Nyanhi
Harare

THE tourism industry, smarting from the country's political turmoil that has
prompted an economic meltdown, appears headed for a cul de sac as confusion
about reliable tourist inflow figures and the sector's ability to recover
continue to dominate debate.

Government's high-handed approach to the recovery of the crucial foreign
currency earner, once touted as the country's fastest growing industry, is
seemingly failing to stabilise the sector amidst the deteriorating
situation.

In 1999, at the onset of the country's land reform campaign, Zimbabwe racked
in a total of US$700 million in foreign currency earnings. Sadly, in 2002,
the industry was depleted ten-fold, earning as little as US$70 million.

The land seizures, meant to resettle landless peasants, and the
parliamentary elections that followed in the same year saw the country
attracting bad publicity as international media blasted what they termed the
"barbaric" course of the land reform policy.

Zimbabwe became a pariah state overnight, with international financiers
closing their door to any business with the country.

Tourism suffered dearly, and when reputable international airlines including
Lufthansa and Qantas pulled out, citing dwindling international tourist
arrivals in the country, government began trying to stem the haemorrhage.

Hotels frequently talk of rising occupancy levels, but experts explain that
it is due to the domestic market and the coming festive season and not
because of increased international tourism.

The Minister of Tourism, Francis Nhema, in trying to fend off criticism of
the ministry's failure to turn around the sector, has said that domestic
tourism is good for the country after all and should be vigorously promoted.

However Eric Bloch, a Bulawayo-based economic consultant, said: "Domestic
tourism is good for Zimbabwe because it generates income but there are other
aspects it does not satisfy. For instance, international tourists come with
much needed foreign exchange that boosts the country's foreign currency
reserves. Domestic tourism does not satisfy the safari side as local
tourists do not normally go on safari. They might go to a hotel but
international tourists utilise safaris. Safari operators are suffering
because they are probably having very low or no patronage at all."

Gwenda Wawn, voted Tourism Personality of the Year 2003 for her sterling
work in promoting the sector, said the current situation still demanded that
the country go on a massive international campaign to attract international
tourists, create a Zimbabwean tourism emblem and find ways of getting
international funding.

Wawn, who also works for a local tour operator, said: "We have been
drastically affected by press reports and we are in the process of coming up
with a symbolic logo that will be Zimbabwean."

South Africa, one of the best-packaged tourist destinations on the
continent, is enjoying huge returns from tourism through the 'Proudly South
African' emblem.

The emblem is designed in the form of the national flag embedded within a
circle that is virtually seen in almost all of the country's international
campaigns.

"The other problem is that we need huge funding to fuel our campaign if we
are to succeed in targeting Europe, America, and the Far East. It will be
very difficult for Zimbabwe to go it alone," Wawn said.

South Africa has in the past few years prioritised tourism as a potential
foreign currency earner and the results have been overwhelming,

South Africa's initiative has grown in leaps and bounds, spurred by a unique
partnership between the government, international community and the local
business fraternity.

Instead Zimbabwe presents a contrast: there is no close and harmonious
interaction between government and the local business community and the low
profile Zimbabwe Tourism Expo (ZTE) held last month is testimony to this.

The ZTE is held annually by the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) to link
local tourism players with international markets but this year most
participants felt that the event was not adequately prepared for.

Worse still Zimbabwe does not have any hope of securing any meaningful
international support.

The country remains cut off from crucial International Monetary Fund
balance-of-payments support that in turn has reduced international
investment confidence.

This has led to a deep-seated economic crisis that has seen the inflation
rate jump to 525.8, one of the highest in the world.

A striking example of how much African countries need the assistance of the
international community in tourism promotion is Kenya.

Terrorist attacks and alerts of more terrorist attacks devastated the East
African country's famed tourism industry.

At one time British Airways suspended flights to Kenya, but though these
have since resumed, Kenya is still struggling to exorcise the ghost of the
terror attacks.

The country launched a tourism recovery package last month, assisted
financially by the European Union, and it has already started to send
attaches to vital tourism markets to attract increased tourist inflows.

Again, industry players said, this presents a lesson for Zimbabwe that has
made several attempts to broaden its appeal on the international arena by
sending attaches to Kuala Lumpur, the Middle East and South Africa, but
unfortunately these ventures are crippled by the shortage of funds.

Jonathan Moyo, the Minister of Information and Publicity, launched a video
and song in South Africa to market the country's premier tourist resort, the
Victoria Falls.

Bloch said that the forays to South Africa helped because they enhanced
regional tourism but said that Zimbabwe still needed to repair its damaged
international image.

Bloch said:" International tourists need to be assured that there is enough
fuel for travelling, that the police will not stop them at roadblocks and
strip them of their foreign currency, they need to know that flights will
not be cancelled unnecessarily."

A ZTA official said that tourism has raised about $30 billion up to June
this year as compared to $19.7 billion last year during the same period.
This appeared to be a factor of inflation and the devaluation of the
Zimbabwe dollar against the greenback rather than increased foreign currency
earnings.

Zimbabwe Sun Limited (ZimSun), the country's biggest hotel and leisure chain
group, presented unaudited financial results for the six months ended
September 30 2003 that painted a gloomy picture.

"Patronage from traditional source markets remained weak during the period
under review. A softening of attitude by tour operators is being
experienced, with some consumers and travel agents still to be educated that
Victoria Falls and Zimbabwe are still safe destinations."

ZimSun said that room occupancy on the other hand dropped from 45 percent
during the same period last year, sharply contradicting claims by the ZTA
that hotel occupancy was at its peak.

But Bloch said: "The figures being churned out in the market are creating a
wrong impression because people give out statistics that are selective and
that suit their plans, those statistics can only come from the information
department and they are not reliable."