Mail & Guardian (Johannesburg)

January 18, 2002
Posted to the web January 17, 2002

The Southern African Development Community declined to get tough with Zimbabwe, report Wisani wa ka Ngobeni and Drew Forrest.

President Robert Mugabe should be given "the benefit of the doubt" on his pledge to hold free and fair presidential elections, and the region could not use sanctions or threats to hold him to his word, a top foreign affairs official maintained this week.

Department of Foreign Affairs Deputy Director General for Africa Welile Nhlapo was part of the South African delegation to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of government summit in Blantyre, Malawi, this week, where Mugabe again assured leaders of his honourable intentions. Nhlapo told the Mail & Guardian that the international community had no "genuine reason to believe the Zimbabwean government would renege on its commitments".

At the summit, Mugabe undertook to hold free and fair elections, allow independent observers and journalists and investigate all political violence impartially.

Nhlapo's comments follow expressions of deep scepticism by the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) about Mugabe's assurances, and scotched suggestions that South Africa and the region had toughened their stance in Blantyre.

Botswana's President Festus Mogae also confirmed the region's weak summit stance. "There is not much we can do If Mugabe reneges we'll tell him we're not happy. But he may tell us to go to hell," said Mogae, who described Mugabe as "an honourable man".

Cosatu said the latest promises meant as little as those Mugabe made at the commonwealth summit in Abuja last September and two subsequent SADC meetings. It expressed "disappointment" that regional leaders had taken them at face value.

Cosatu also reacted cautiously to news that a Bill banning trade union dissent had been delayed this week after the Zimbabwean parliament's legal committee ruled it might be unconstitutional. "We have to be convinced there's a real change on the ground," said Cosatu's Patrick Craven.

Nhlapo hit back at the federation, saying the organisation was not present at the SADC meeting and could not "assume things".

He complained that certain media and analysts had turned the summit into "a bilateral meeting between South Africa and Zimbabwe People want to assign us a particular role, while we are part of regional mechanisms. We need to respect institutions we have created. The SADC is a serious institution."

Nhlapo said: "Putting undue pressure on South Africa, as if we are the police in the region, is incorrect."

The summit, Nhlapo said, was not called to discuss Zimbabwe. The Democratic Republic of Congo had asked the SADC for a meeting on its problems and Zimbabwe asked for a platform to brief regional leaders on its election.

Nhlapo attacked international organisations calling for regional sanctions if Zimbabwe failed to hold free and fair elections and continued to crack down on the media and judiciary. The SADC did not believe in threatening member states.

"What threats can you make to Zimbabwe? We can't build a community with threats." He said "colonisers" had complicated the land issue. "Now colonisers are being let off the hook and SADC is blamed."

"We are interacting with the Zimbabwe government and President Thabo Mbeki communicates directly with Mugabe. If issues in Zimbabwe affect us, we discuss them with the Zimbabwean government, but some issues are the SADC's responsibility."

But University of the Witwatersrand foreign affairs specialist John Stremlau questioned whether South Africa and the region were powerless to act.

Stremlau said the election was "a forcing moment". While South Africa's softly-softly approach had past benefits in keeping the region on board, the costs of delay - for example, in regard to the falling rand - were mounting.

"Logic dictated" that regional leaders warn Mugabe they would not recognise an unfair election. A refusal to endorse the poll would make it impossible for Zimbabwe to raise the international donor finance essential for post- election economic restructuring.

Inflation in Zimbabwe is running at 103% and unemployment at 80%. Stremlau said 500 Zimbabweans were already thought to be crossing into South Africa daily.

A carrot-and-stick approach was needed to shake Zanu-PF leaders out of their siege mentality and overwhelming focus on keeping power. South Africa should mediate between Zimbabwe and the West, conveying the latter's detailed offers of financial aid if the election was properly conducted.

Institute for Security Studies director Richard Cornwell insisted there was no chance the region would denounce an unfair poll, as its leaders feared the precedent could rebound on them. "Zambia's election results are already before the courts."

Economic sanctions would merely "accelerate the train smash", and there was no provision for the expulsion of SADC members.

Complicating the issue were critical food shortages in Zimbabwe, threatening "a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale", and the need for Mugabe's co-operation in settling the Congo and Angolan crises, where there was "light at the end of the tunnel".

South Africa needed Zimbabwe to accept food aid from international agencies it was attacking for their alleged sympathies with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

"Smart sanctions" targeting the private wealth of Zanu-PF top dogs should have been launched earlier. However such measures - and even threats to expose assets held abroad, in stark contrast with "revolutionary austerity" - could still have some effect.

Stremlau and Cornwell agree that there are signs of Mugabe's increasing isolation in Zanu-PF and internal dissidence over the concentration of power in his hands.

"Mugabe is consolidating power over all party positions, from the central committee and polititburo to the provinces, and the party barons don't like this," Cornwell said. "Any future president could abuse them."

He pointed out that the powerful Zanu-PF figure Eddison Zvogbo chaired the three-person parliamentary committee that had rejected the trade union Bill.

Cornwell suggested Mugabe's apparently worsening health might serve as a trigger for a party rebellion. "It should be remembered the National Party only dared move against PW Botha when the Great Crocodile was wounded."

Mugabe and Grace hold worshippers hostage
MUCKRAKER
HOW did President Mugabe and Grace manage to corral 5 000 people and hold them captive at the Harare International Conference Centre for several hours last Saturday?

The answer? By not telling them they would be there.

There was no hint from the organisers of the interdenominational gathering that the first couple would make a guest appearance. Most people thought it was just a religious gathering, not a party-political rally where Mugabe would spout his now familiar racist and hate-filled gospel.

Suspicions may have been aroused by the presence of such well-known Zanu-PF supporters as Anglican bishop Norbert Kunonga and the "Rev" Andrew Wutawunashe. Kunonga's address looked as though it had been written by Jonathan Moyo. Also, the presence of "prominent seer" and leader of the Johane Masowe WeChishanu Apostolic Sect, "Madzibaba" Godfrey Nzira, could have given the game away.

But despite this inauspicious lineup many worshippers would have attended quite innocently, ignorant of the fact they were being hijacked by politicians in white robes.

Once inside they had to listen to the "Rev" Obediah Musindo of the New Generations Church telling them Mugabe was motivated by the need to save lives in sending Zimbabwean forces to the Congo. A United Nations team of investigators has another view of course - like most Zimbabweans. But the president can do what he likes because he was "installed by the people with the blessing of God", according to the "Rev" Manyika of the Apostolic Faith Mission.

Actually it was with a 30% vote. God was on leave that day.

Family Singers and famous gospel singer Charles Charamba were billed to provide the music. Chara-mba (Charles, not George) is a crowd puller.

Just in case those attending had a change of mind, white-clad members of Nzira's sect positioned themselves at the corner of Rotten Row and Jason Moyo directing traffic towards the Sheraton. Another group was stationed at the corner of Rotten Row and Cripps Road in Mbare telling people to go to the Conference Centre. Attendance was evidently not optional for many!

Somebody should have asked Nzira what he "saw" for the ides of March - apart from more church-approved beatings of course.

Undeterred by Registrar-General Tobaiwa Mudede's forthright reply denying the existence of a passport "scam" by his officials, the Sunday Mail's political editor Munyaradzi Huni recently returned to the attack alleging that "information made available to the Sunday Mail shows that the official at the Registrar-General's Office (name supplied) had an understanding with the MDC to quickly facilitate their requests for passports".

"The MDC," said Huni, "is allegedly using these passports to send their security personnel outside the country for 'unknown missions'."

He continued: "Although the police remained tight-lipped on the matter, information made available to the Sunday Mail shows that even the leader of the MDC, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai and some of his close lieutenants benefited from the system last year."

The Sunday Mail published Mudede's response to the initial allegations. But it declined to publish the response of his office to Huni's subsequent restatement of the charges.

It should be borne in mind that Huni's function at the Mail is to rubbish the MDC on a weekly basis - and he is evidently not too fussy about his facts. Where he says the MDC "allegedly" used the passports for "unknown missions", it is in fact Huni who is making the allegations. And the "missions" still remain unknown to his newspaper's readers!

Mudede's office, in a letter dated January 3, dealt with Huni's claims even more robustly than it did the first time.

"Your political editor Munyaradzi Huni is good at creating despondency, peddling pernicious lies and terror," RG spokesman S Njeru told the Sunday Mail's editor.
"He is a faceless liar who breeds violence through exploiting his privileged position in the national flagship," - presumably a reference to the Mail. "Despite our candid response about the situation on the ground Huni continues to breed lie after lie."

Njeru then itemised Huni's charges and said the RG's office would defend its integrity "from obvious and devious motives of people like Huni". He threatened legal action.

"Authority based on gossip is as rotten as its foundation," Njeru said, denying the claim that the police "unearthed the scam". The police did not unearth anything he said because there was no scam.

"The police who handled this case are even shocked with the blatant lies printed in the Sunday Mail," he said.

The RG's office provided the police with the serial numbers of the passports cited by Huni, Njeru pointed out. They had full validity. The police therefore made no discovery at all.

Njeru warned Huni that "he should not use the Sunday Mail and his senior editors to further his personal and egotistical ambitions".

This warning is worth bearing in mind when we read Huni's latest epistle last Sunday headed "MDC intensifies terror game". Huni's byline says it is "Time to Decide".

We think most people, reading the letter from the RG's office, will have already done so! In the meantime will Misa and others please record this case and produce it when Jonathan Moyo next accuses the independent press of unpro-fessionalism and telling lies.

It is on record. Graduates of the Border Gezi Youth Training Centre, the "Green Bombers" (nick-named after the offending disease-spreading bottle flies) are not allowed to ask people for Zanu PF cards. They are apolitical and have no training in violence.

This revelation came from Youth minister Elliot Manyika during a live ZBC phone-in programme, Face the Nation.

Few believed him. Viewers phoned to tell Manyika that his youths were harassing people and asking them to produce party cards. In his long-winded response Manyika tried to twist the question and as usual gave the fictional response that MDC youths were acquiring Green-Bomber uniforms and harassing people to tarnish Zanu PF.

But more callers recounted their experiences and the minister then tried to portray the Green Bombers as harmless butterflies.

Later in the programme, forgetting that he had said the youths were apolitical, Manyika said he would like them to go out and tell the people how good Zanu PF is and how important the resettlement exercise is.

Sorry Minister, it's too late. The Green Bombers have already converted thousands to the MDC!

A number of columnists in the state media, including the increasingly deranged Tafataona Mahoso, have been trying to pretend that because General Vitalis Zvinavashe didn't mention Morgan Tsvangirai by name in his address last week, he could have been referring to anybody and therefore Tsvangirai's supporters had exposed him as a traitor.

"How did the BBC know that the characteristics and curriculum vitae of a traitor to his nation outlined in the defence and security chiefs' press statement fits Tsva- ngirai?" Mahoso asked triumphantly.
The answer is simple: Because Zanu PF has already made the same charge. Zvinavashe used identical language to President Mugabe and Zanu PF in falsely claiming he had the right to pick the next president, irrespective of the nation's wishes.
"Tsvangirai will never ever become president," Mugabe told his supporters only a few weeks ago. Nobody was fooled by the defence and security chiefs' pretence to be defending liberation war "values", unless of course those values include shady Congo diamond deals and dodgy transport companies.
The only values they are required to share are those set out in the constitution. They are not entitled to define the nation's values any more than Mahoso is.
In the same edition of the Sunday Mail Mahoso also claimed the Independent on December 21 "came out with a story called 'Mugabe and his fake terrorism'". He proceeded to give us his views on the subject.
In fact, it was not a "story" at all but a letter to the editor. Mahoso doesn't know the difference yet he is a professor of journalism. What a joke!

'Dr' Claude Mararike and other Zanu PF publicists such as Martin Mlambo have been suggesting American and French generals invariably support their countries' revolutions in the 18th century. Of course they do. But they also permit Americans and Frenchmen of any views the right to stand for president and be elected. They would never dare go on television and say this or that candidate was unacceptable to the army unless they were courting dismissal and prosecution.

And wasn't it good to hear Mararike outclassed by ordinary Zimbabweans on the BBC's phone-in programme, Talking Point, last Sunday. His attempt to portray Mugabe in heroic terms fighting for Zimbabweans' rights to land was countered by just about everybody else who said there was no quarrel about land, only methodology. The programme from then on focused on Mugabe's record as president - and none of it was flattering despite the Herald's valiant efforts to provide an edited account of e-mail submissions.

Mararike, Mlambo, Vimbai Chivaura, Alexander Kanengoni and other purveyors of a discredited political culture that allows military men to threaten voters should realise just how much damage Zvinavashe's ill-considered remarks have caused. President Joachim Chissano's sharp rebuke doesn't seem to have been quoted in the government media!

Meanwhile, if you disagree with Kanengoni's Zanu PF propaganda in the state press, you can protest: Stop buying Look & Listen which he edits - not very well. Does anybody still want to know what dross ZTV is serving up anyway?

Attempts by government ministers to portray South Africa's English-language press as an "apartheid press" is rebounding on them as liberation-linked columnists assail Mugabe's delinquent regime.

Columnist Jovial Rantao, writing in the Star last Friday (see Page 15), did not mince his words.

"Robert Mugabe has gone mad," he said.

"If Mugabe is not mad, what would you call someone, calling himself a president, who not only drives the economy of the country into the ground but also allows lawlessness to prevail...?"

Coming in the same week that Archbishop Desmond Tutu called Mugabe "bonkers", it is possible to detect a certain consensus emerging down south on our president's state of mind. Perhaps Zimbabwe's spin doctors at Munhumutapa Building should consider attending to the disease instead of insulting South African journalists like Mathata Tsedu who have commented on the symptoms.

At least 2,500 Zimbabweans a day are crossing legally into South Africa to escape the political turmoil, immigration officials in Zimbabwe say. About 300 a day are leaving for Britain. Most of the Zimbabweans crossing into South Africa are obtaining tourist or shopping visas but they immediately became illegal immigrants once the temporary visas expire. A senior Zimbabwean immigration official said: "We suspect that many more people are crossing the border into South Africa illegally to seek employment there. Most of those people going to South Africa as tourists are in fact going there in search of employment and they are not coming back once their visas expire." Immigration officials said at least 300 Zimbabweans a day were leaving to join friends and relatives in Britain. They said an estimated 400,000 Zimbabweans were now living in Britain, more than half of them illegally. Zimbabweans can enter Britain without a visa, if their stay is for holiday or business and for less than six months.

From The Daily Telegraph (UK), 18 January

Mugabe report delayed

A diplomatically sensitive United Nations report assessing whether President Robert Mugabe is acting lawfully in Zimbabwe was delayed from publication yesterday after the intervention of the UN Secretary-General. The Telegraph has learned that senior staff in Kofi Annan's office said they needed to give final approval to the report, prepared by a special team from the UN Development Programme. "This report is diplomatic dynamite and needs to be handled very carefully," one diplomat said. It is understood to be the first time the Secretary-General's office has demanded final approval for a report arising out of a UNDP field trip.

Parallel market essential until devaluation

NUMEROUS members of parliament, the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe, the Affirmative Action Group, spokesmen for war veterans, and many others (inclusive of the state-controlled media) and, surprisingly, some Zimbabwean economists, have long demanded more substantive action by government and the Reserve Bank to bring to an end all foreign currency dealings in what has become known as the parallel market.

That market is one which either is outside of the operations of the formal banking system and its established, Reserve Bank-controlled, money market or, at the most, is on the extreme outer fringes of that official market.

That these demands are made is not surprising, for the impact of foreign currency required to fund imports at 600% or more of the official rates is perceived to be a major cause of the hyperinflation prevailing in Zimbabwe. With inflation markedly exceeding 100% per annum, costs of living have soared dramatically, occasioning great hardships for those who are low-income earners or are unemployed. Desperation has become the order of the day for a vast majority of the Zimbabwean population, living in abject and ever-increasing poverty and the deepest despair.

Zimbabwe is a country heavily dependent upon imports, despite its wealth of certain primary products. It must necessarily import fuel, energy to supplement its own electricity production, raw materials for the manufacturing sector, plant, machinery and equipment for all sectors of the economy, and many of the spares and consumables necessary to keep the wheels of commerce and industry, agriculture, mining, and tourism, turning.

Because of that import dependency, exchange rates are a very significant factor in determining the costs of goods and services and, therefrom, their selling prices. Therefore, if the cost of foreign exchange increases, so too do selling prices to consumers - in other words, inflation rises.

It appears, therefore, that it must be in the best interest of consumers for the state to prescribe exchange rates, at very low levels, and prevent trading at any other rates. The belief is that if this were done effectively, inflation would be markedly contained. However, this is a gross misconception and, within the present Zimbabwean economic environment, the reverse would be the case.

Instead of inflation declining, it will increase to an even greater extent than at present, and the consumer would be afflicted by a threefold burden of massive hyperinflation, immense scarcities of essential products, and significantly increased unemployment.

Many are reluctant to accept that this is so, for it appears incongruous to suggest that a controlled, low, foreign currency exchange rate could fuel inflation to even a small proportion of the extent occasioned by the parallel market. Despite their disbelief, however, it is incontrovertible fact which cannot credibly be denied, that a peremptory discontinuance of the parallel market, without a concurrent, realistic, official devaluation of Zimbabwe's currency, would inevitably result in further, crippling, inflation and an even greater lack of foreign currency to fund imports than presently pertains, with resultant considerably increased shortages.

Over the last almost 18 months, since the Zimbabwean dollar was last officially devalued, the costs of production of all sectors of the economy have risen exponentially. For many segments of Zimbabwe's economy electricity and coal costs have increased by more than 400%. Wages have increased by between 200% and in excess of 300%, telecommunication, postal and like charges have more than trebled, fuel has more than doubled, and similarly all other operational costs have increased by inconceivably great amounts.

As a result of these increased costs, exporters have unavoidably had to raise their selling prices very considerably, in order to generate a sufficiency of Zimbabwean dollars to cover their costs, let alone also to achieve a fair and reasonable return on capital, unless the Zimbabwean dollar had depreciated concurrently and proportionately with the increases in operational costs.

However, increasing export prices to such an extent renders the Zimbabwean goods price uncompetitive in export markets against like goods offered by markets which have not been subject to such massive increases in costs of production. The result is an unavoidable sharp decline in demand for Zimbabwean goods and in turn that results in a very great decrease in foreign exchange inflows needed to meet Zimbabwe's foreign currency commitments in general, and its import costs in particular.

Zimbabwe has steadfastly failed to respond to this situation by effecting requisite currency devaluations, undoubtedly as such actions have been seen to be politically unpalatable.

In consequence, the parallel market came into being for, on the one hand, exporters had to realise more Zimbabwean dollars for their exports than they could do through the state-regulated money market and, on the other hand, the reduced availability in that market of foreign exchange drove importers into seeking their critical needs elsewhere, albeit at a considerable premium. Money is a commodity as much as is any mineral, agricultural product or the goods produced by the manufacturing industries. The greater its availability, as compared to the demand therefore, the lower will be its costs.

The vice versa pertains, in that the scarcer the availability of foreign exchange as compared to demand, the greater the amount that some are prepared to pay for it. Thus, as Zimbabwe's foreign exchange resources fell, due to lesser exports, diminished foreign investment, and markedly reduced international aid, supply fell far short of demand and, therefore, those in need of the currency became willing to pay more and more for it.

This in turn accommodated the needs of exporters, for the demand-push on exchange rates gave them the opportunity of converting export proceeds at higher rates, thereby compensating for the rising production and operational costs without having to resort to price increases of a magnitude destroying demand for the exports.

So, the parallel market was born. In contradistinction to the black market which unlawfully held foreign exchange outside of the banking system, and which sold that foreign exchange for purposes outside of the law (such as accumulation of capital in other countries, and usage for holiday travel in excess of legislated holiday allowances), the parallel market made the funds available for legitimate purposes such as payment for imports, servicing of technology transfer and royalty commitments, remission of approved dividends, funding of interest and loan payments, and so forth.

The opponents of the parallel market contend that if the authorities would wholly terminate it, instead of only the present endeavours to curb and contain it, there would be a greater inflow of foreign exchange into the official market, to be made available for imports and other commitments at the low official rates, and thereby import costs would decrease, ensuring that inflation falls.

But this theory is fallacious in the extreme. Were that to occur, the already very distressed export sector could not survive. The mining industry would close down. So too would horticulture, most export-based manufacturing enterprises, and almost all tourism ventures.

So, they would not be generating foreign exchange to sell into the official market. They would have no alternative but to close, to retrench their employees, and to supply neither the domestic or export markets. Other industries would similarly have to wind-up, being unable to obtain essential inputs due to non-availability of foreign exchange. As a result, numerous products would be in short supply and, in consequence, prices would rise in response to the excess of demand over supply. Thus, inflation would rise, and rise, and rise.

A discontinuance of the parallel market can only be viably pursued if, at the same time, the official money market was subjected to a realistic devaluation. With a present parallel rate approximating US$1: $320, but exporters obliged to dispose of 40% of export proceeds at about US$1:$53, the exporters are achieving an average exchange rate of about US$1: $213,2.

Therefore, if the parallel market is to be terminated, Zimbabwe needs to devalue its currency to about US$1: $210 to $220, and thereafter to devalue regularly (until an open money market driven by market forces is re-established) concomitantly with the disparity in the Zimbabwean inflation rate and that of its principal export competitors.