Work in Progress.
I am a bit late this week with my normal review but I have been in the south of the country looking after business interests. On the way I caught a severe head cold which has kept me out of circulation for a couple of days. The only real news this past week was the eventual announcement of the new cabinet - it is an interesting line up with some notable exceptions and some gains. The new Ministers of Finance, Industry and Agriculture are all sound technocrats, the new Minister of Mines is not - an amazing development when you think of our potential as a mining country.
I was sorry to see Eddison Zvobgo go into retirement - in my view he would have been a good choice as Minister of Legal and Parliamentary Affairs and in effect the Leader of the House. Instead they appointed Patrick Chinamassa - the present Attorney General who has been less than effective in that role but has been a loyal doormat for the President. Zvobgo has always been the main threat to Mugabe's hold over Zanu PF and I think he will continue to be dangerous on the back benches.
There are three priorities - restoring the rule of law, turning the economy around and
resolve the conflict over land. The last is linked to the first and cannot be done until you have first restored respect for the law throughout the country. The actual position of the farmers has become impossible. They are the subject of random threats and are being forced to abandon their assets in the face of threats from a nondescript group of thugs who seem to be able to ignore all the norms of a society based on the rule of law. On Sunday my driver was at home in a rural district with his family when the local "war vets" came door to door inviting them to come with them to "get land". He caught a bus to Chinhoyi and left town as soon as possible to avoid giving the impression he was less than enthusiastic about "getting a farm". This is anarchy not land reform. There is no sign that government is about to change its ways - they are still holding the value of the dollar at an artificially high rate, still threatening price controls and ignoring all calls to get the budget deficit under some control. They also continue to talk about the Millenium Economic Recovery Plan as if it held some credibility - if it had any 5 months ago it has none today.
So where does this leave us? I got a copy of the Mining Mirror magazine from South Africa at the weekend and being restricted to bed read it from cover to cover. It was a very interesting read. Bobby Godsell, a South African financial guru said in the magazine that South Africa's economy has never been better managed and he sited the following: - "On the economic front, inflation is well controlled, government deficits are being managed down, trade barriers have been rapidly reduced, tax rates are being lowered, exchange controls are being phased out and economic growth is stronger than it has been for decades." He went on to state that "the rule of law, government under the law, and as a constitutional state are well established." Elsewhere in the magazine you learn that the diamond industry is to be doubled in size in Botswana and that De Beers are expanding their investments in Venitia Mine - some 5 kilometers from the border with Zimbabwe and opposite a defunct diamond mine on the Zimbabwe side of the border. On the BBC this morning we heard that of all the States in Central and East Africa, only Uganda has hit its targets and qualifies for debt relief.
Now compare Godsells analysis with the situation in Zimbabwe - inflation is soaring to levels that could go over 100 per cent per annum within the next twelve months, the government deficit is over 20 per cent of GDP and still rising. Tax levels are rising - driven by rapid inflation and the absence of any management. The Zimbabwe dollar is trading at half the value it is now valued at by the market and our economy is likely to shrink this year by 10 to 15 per cent in real terms. 20 years ago we had a higher income per capita than Botswana - now their GDP per capita is some 5 times the per capita income of Zimbabwe and the gap is widening monthly.
The only comment on the Zimbabwean situation in the Magazine was a remark by the editor that "lets hope that the Zimbabwe land invasions controversy does not damage the upsurge in investor interest and dampen the growth shown recently by the SA mining industry." We are liability in the regional balance sheet and the reckless pursuit of the ambitions of one man and his close associates continues to harm not only our own prospects but also those of the whole region. Here, with the exception of the Congo, Angola and perhaps little Malawi, regional countries are all on the path to growth and recovery.
Yet when you compare us to the rest - we still have the best prospects of all regional states in southern Africa for growth and development. A highly educated workforce, a rich resource base and strategic role in the regional economy from a transport and tourism angle. Despite all the problems of agriculture in Zimbabwe it is an industry that has grown consistently since independence in 1980, our tourism potential is huge, the mining industry is highly diversified and has great potential, industry and commerce all have potential - especially when viewed against the new trade opportunities that are opening up. The service industries of health, education, technical and communications are just beginning to show their potential.
So what is wrong with us - well we all know that, but what to do about it? I think that has been decided because Mr Mugabe knows now that he is basically finished. It may take 3 months or 20 but he will go soon and then we can start putting all our potential to work at solving a few of our national problems and not just those of a small outdated clique of Zanu PF relics who think that their welfare is synonymous with that of the national as a whole. The eventual coming to power of the MDC promises a completely new form of post independence government in Africa - one that could bring a new generation into power and a chance to show what they are made of. A team that really does believe in a market driven social democracy, that at last puts the country before itself. In the mean time, regard us as being "work in progress" - messy, but keep your eye on the eventual shape of the project we are building together.
Eddie Cross
18th July 2000
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Robert I. Rotberg
HARARE, ZIMBABWE
This prosperous-appearing capital city is a modern Potemkin village. Stores and hotels are empty, businesses are shutting their doors, and tourists are absent. Downtown Harare is a lifeless shell following President Robert Mugabe's willful destruction of his nation's economy.
Political leaders, whether the ebullient architects of June's stunning vote in parliamentary elections for the new Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), or the glum Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) followers of Mr. Mugabe, sit in their offices wondering whether the president will change his dictatorial ways.
Last month's elections produced a meaningful opposition for the first time. Of the 120 elected parliamentary seats, 57 went to the MDC, one to an allied party, and 62 to ZANU-PF. Because of widespread intimidation and the likelihood of ballot stuffing and vote rigging, the MDC is contesting 28 of the seats it lost. It won all the cities and all rural areas except those in the president's Shona-speaking heartland. Four of its winners were whites, elected overwhelmingly by blacks despite Mugabe's racist campaign.
Morgan Tsvangirai, president of the MDC, smiled in his office, remembering how voters severely rebuked Mugabe's economic and political follies. Mr. Tsvangirai knows how to begin to fix Zimbabwe's woes: Let the country's currency devalue (to help farmers and other exporters); restore law and order to the farming sector by ousting interlopers; bring the country's 13,000 troops home from the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and end the leader-led corruption.
In contrast, Mugabe remains silent and invasions of the white-owned farms continue illegally. Mugabe is also reluctant to pull his Army out of the Congo, where diamonds and cobalt are enriching his own personal wealth. Senior members of ZANU-PF want their president to resign, but fear his wrath.
Zimbabwe's once rich economy has endured a precipitous meltdown since 1998. Inflation has raced upward from 20 to 80 percent. Government deficits are now as high as 20 percent of GDP, while yearly GDP itself has tumbled from $600 to $400 per capita. GDP growth rates have slumped from 5 percent a year to a predicted minus 10 percent this year. The local dollar has fallen in value from 8 per $1US to 60 .
Zimbabwe is bankrupt. Consequently, its state petroleum monopoly has difficulty importing fuel for cars and tractors, and people stand in long lines, desperate for kerosene and cooking oil. The state-owned electricity utility has no money to import power, and at any time the country may go dark. Because Zimbabwe has no foreign exchange, and farmers can make no money on their crops, food shortages are beginning to appear. They could become serious by September if winter wheat isn't sown now.
In better-managed times, Zimbabwe boasted one of the best-balanced and well-functioning economies in Africa. But this healthy growth has been undermined by direct government action since 1998. By hiring rent-a-thugs to invade white-owned farms - and in some cases kill white farmers who favored the MDC - the government quickly destroyed the equivalent of 20 percent of GDP. Even worse, Mugabe threatened to confiscate all white-owned farms without compensation. He also vowed to nationalize the mines. Foreign investors withdrew in fear and dismay.
Unless Mugabe alters course significantly, emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, much less Western donors, will not be forthcoming. That help will only arrive when Zimbabwe begins to put its own house in order.
Local businessmen suspect that it is too late. If they are right, then this well-educated and once well-run country could become the next Sierra Leone or Congo. Recovery is possible, but only if Mugabe resigns before his term ends in 2002, or refrains from new acts of venality.
Robert I. Rotberg is director of the Kennedy School's program on intrastate conflict and president of the World Peace Foundation.
Dr Timothy Stamps was puke making - taking the oath to serve ZIMBABWE and abide by the rule of Zimbabwe law while vigorously waving the ZANU PF clenched fist and speaking at the top of his voice makes me realize that this man who cannot even win a ZANU PF primary election has no allegiance to ZIMBABWE and is so far indebted to Mugabe for his very existence that he will do worse than Judas and even betray Zimbabwe just like his master Mugabe has done.
The vote for the Speaker and deputy speaker gives us hope - what Paul Nyahti said about democracy and good men working against evil was brilliant and is already working -
The 15hrs00 vote for the speaker 59 to 87 with two spoilt papers - can you believe it two of Mugabes appointed men cannot even vote - TWO people had voted against ZANU PF - four if you count the spoilt papers.
By the time the vote for the deputy speaker was caste another good man had crossed the floor making the MDC vote 60. at this rate by the end of the week we will have a majority.
from the desk of R W { Topper } Whitehead
FOLLOWING last Saturday's statement from Vice President Msika, the Commercial Farmers Union believed that a way had been found to take the land issue forward. We were encouraged by the vice president's statement that illegal invasion of farms by war veterans and their supporters would be brought to an end.
Sadly this has not been the case. Trouble in the Glendale Farmers' Association area, which has been simmering for some time, was brought to a head when the Farmers' Association chairman and his family were forced to leave their farm by a group of hostile invaders.
The invaders, who occupied the homestead yesterday evening, remain camped on the front lawn. Last night the CFU informed the police that the situation was untenable. At 12.40pm today the police arrived at the farm. They left at 14.30pm without taking any notable action.
Because of this, the Farmers Association have taken the decision to close down, believing that it is no longer possible to guarantee the safety of farmers or their workers. All farms in the area have complied with this decision.
There are many Farmers' Association areas in Zimbabwe where the threat to life by war veterans remains intense or is escalating. Because of this extremely dangerous situation, the CFU is not in a position to guarantee the safety of its members or farm workers. The lack of proper police protection and intervention, coupled with continuing invasions and threats, means that there is a strong possibility that other farming areas may take similar measures to protect lives.
The Commercial Farmers Union believes Farmers' Associations should put the protection of lives and property first. If invaders continue to ignore the direction issued by government, the CFU believes that, faced with potential violence, farmers should not risk their lives and the lives of their workers by operating in situations that escalate confrontation. Therefore, where safety demands, Farmers' Associations have been told to consider this option and, if necessary, seek advice from the CFU's head office.
This decision should be based on an area by area basis and made only when there is a threat to the lives and safety of farmers and workers.
Gutu / Chatsworth - Eastdale Farm, owner met with war veterans, councillors, chiefs and local ZANU PF Chairman yesterday. Councillors and chiefs oppose the fast track method of resettlement, war vets claimed that a "new war" had started on 2 July 2000 whereby all properties will be resettled - designated or not. Grasslands, Bath, Appin, Blyth, Farms, extensive cutting of trees, selling of firewood. Smilingvale, owner has been given a period to move his cattle off the farm. Irvine "A" Farm, a car has been sighted on the property, pegging taking place near the dam.
17 July 2000
In today's issue:
From The Times (UK), 17 July
Mugabe shuns leader of squatter movement
HARARE - PRESIDENT MUGABE performed a remarkable about-turn at the weekend, dumping the corrupt and inept ruling party old guard in his Government and appointing a Cabinet dominated by younger, moderate technocrats. He also indicated that he was abandoning the guerrilla war veterans he used during the bloody run-up to last month's parliamentary elections to intimidate much of rural Zimbabwe into voting for his Zanu (PF) party.
Chenjerai "Hitler" Hunzvi, the war veterans' leader, widely tipped for a senior Cabinet post, was excluded. Mr Mugabe also failed to turn up at a meeting of veterans in Harare on Saturday when he was expected to address them. Joseph Msika, the head of the Government's land acquisition programme, announced that the State was starting immediately to redistribute land. He said that veterans would have to move off most of the 1,000 white-owned farms they have occupied since February to another 200 properties that he said the Government was in the process of acquiring. He looked directly at Dr Hunzvi as he stated that "distribution [of white-owned farms] is being done by government", and not by veterans.
Dr Hunzvi went on to address about 1,000 supporters and headed straight for confrontation with Mr Mugabe, who had licensed the movement's murderous campaign of farm invasions. Dr Hunzvi said he would give the Government two weeks to give them the farms that they now occupied. "We are not moving anywhere," he said. "We want to make it clear that we are going to take and distribute land now." If farmers resisted, he said, "some of them will find themselves six feet underground".
Zimbabweans were stunned on Saturday night to see Mr Mugabe on state television announce a Cabinet that included Simba Makoni, a leading businessman regarded as the enlightened, critical face of Zanu (PF), as Finance Minister, and Nkosana Moyo, an international banker, as Trade Minister. The choice of ministers took Mr Mugabe three weeks to finalise and the powerful group of pre-independence politicians - nicknamed "the old stone-throwers" - who have dominated his governments since independence in 1980 have been consigned to political insignificance. Only three of them are left in the Cabinet.
Chief among the losers was Emmerson Mnangagwa, the sinister party security chief hitherto regarded as Mr Mugabe's likely successor. Sydney Sekeramayi, former minister in charge of Mr Mugabe's secret police, was demoted to Minister of Mines. In recognition of criticism of his oversized cabinets, the number of full ministers was cut from 27 to 19, although it is expected that Mr Mugabe will appoint deputy ministers and provincial governors, classified as "resident ministers". His last Government consisted of 54 ministers, deputies, ministers of state and governors. "It's a change of persona," said a Western diplomat. "Before the elections he was the Maoist revolutionary, egging on the vets to bloody mayhem. Now he's suddenly the pragmatic reformer." In another important change, Godwin Matanga, the police deputy commissioner, made it clear at a meeting with the veterans' leadership on Friday that his men would be on standby to stop any violence against white farmers.
From The Star (SA), 16 JulyMugabe's cabinet 'too little, too late' - MDC
Harare - Zimbabwe's opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, on Sunday voiced scepticism over the new cabinet announced by President Robert Mugabe in the wake of last month's general elections, saying it was "too little, too late". Mugabe summoned journalists to State House late on Saturday - the same day he launched his controversial land reform programme - and read out a list of 17 full ministers and two heads of department, including 10 new ministers.
Tsvangirai, head of the MDC who nevertheless failed to win a seat in the elections, said: "This government is like putting new oil into an old engine," adding: "The real problem is Mugabe." Tsvangirai said: "It doesn't matter what kind of people he puts into his cabinet. Those people he puts into the cabinet have no political base. It doesn't augur well for the country." Tsvangirai had made it clear after the elections that the MDC would not be part of the government. In an interview with the independent Standard published on Sunday, Tsvangirai said: "I do not see this cabinet delivering as long as Mugabe is there, and these people will just be sacrificial lambs."
For his part, fiery war veterans leader Chenjerai "Hitler" Hunzvi appeared to widen his rift with the government on Sunday as ZBC radio reported that he was disturbed that the new cabinet did not include a minister for war veterans. Hunzvi, whose followers spearheaded the invasions of hundreds of white-owned farms since February, did not get a cabinet post despite intense local speculation he would be awarded the war veterans portfolio. While welcoming the new cabinet, Hunzvi said on ZBC that war veterans "are not comfortable because they have no representation in the new cabinet". In the previous cabinet, Witness Mangwende was the minister of state in the president's office responsible for war veterans.
Hunzvi issued a direct challenge to the government on Saturday by saying his war veterans would not move off farms not designated for government acquisition in the land reform programme. Vice President Robert Msika had said earlier that war veterans would be "shifted" off the land. "Where we are on the farms there is no one who is going to move us out of those farms," Hunzvi told war veterans, who, farmers reported recently, are irritated that the government is taking too long to resettle blacks. Mugabe had, during the election campaign, openly encouraged the war veterans' farm occupation campaign, refusing to order the war veterans off the land.
The Standard crowed over Hunzvi's "conspicuous absence" from the new cabinet. The Standard was also pleased that several former government heavyweights were "booted out", saying: "Chen, Zvobgo, Kangai on the street," referring to information minister Chen Chimutengwende, minister without portfolio Eddison Zvobgo and lands and agriculture minister Kumbirai Kangai, currently facing fraud charges. Zvobgo had been in the government since independence in 1980. Also absent from the cabinet is Mugabe's right-hand man Emmerson Mnangagwa, whom many had seen as a successor to the 76-year-old president.
The state-owned Sunday Mail called the line-up a "new-look cabinet", stressing that Mugabe had brought in "respected personalities in the field of finance and business who are expected to tackle the country's economic woes", including former SADC secretary-general Simba Makoni, who is the new finance minister. Mugabe has presided over a steadily declining economy, now at its lowest ebb since the start of his 20 years at the helm.
From The Guardian (UK), 17 July
Mugabe faces new row on land seizure
Harare - The Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, announced a new cabinet at the weekend, dropping several heavyweight politicians and omitting the war veterans' leader, Chenjerai Hunzvi. After his Zanu-PF party's narrow victory on June 27, when it won 62 of the 120 seats in parliament, he reduced the size of his cabinet and left out such nationalist stalwarts as Emmerson Mnangagwa, Eddison Zvobgo and Witness Mangwende. Mr Mugabe abolished the post of minister for war veterans' affairs, which had been expected to go to Mr Hunzvi.
There were also contradictory messages about the simmering land issue, making it uncertain whether the war veterans will leave the 1,400 farms they now occupy illegally. The vice-president, Joseph Msika, said land seizures would start immediately. He said the war veterans would be moved off the 1,400 farms to 200 farms designated for seizure through lawful - although questionable - means. "Our 'Fast Track' land resettlement starts today. We are moving people onto farms today," he said on Saturday. "The government will shift the war veterans and peasants from farms that were not identified."
But, revealing the simmering conflict between Mr Mugabe and the veterans, Mr Hunzvi said they would "stay put" on the farms they now occupy until they were satisfied that the government was seizing land fast enough. In a speech to 4,000 war veterans, Mr Hunzvi warned that anyone who opposed them would end up "6ft underground", and he pressed Mr Mugabe to speed up the land confiscations. "I do not usually want to give our government ultimatums, but today I am doing so," he said. "If the government does not speed up taking the remainder of the farms, we the war veterans are going to do that. I give them two weeks from now."
Earlier the veterans had shouted that Zanu-PF was "rotten from the top". Mr Mugabe had been due to address them, but he cancelled at the last minute. "Mugabe feared being roasted by Hunzvi and the veterans, so he avoided them," said a Zanu-PF insider. "He is becoming more isolated. Mugabe is afraid of appearing before the general public because they support the MDC. And even within his own Zanu-PF party his support is limited."
Mr Mugabe relied heavily upon Mr Hunzvi and his supporters during the election campaign, encouraging them to invade white-owned farms and intimidate MDC supporters. He ordered the police not to arrest the war veterans who spearheaded a violent campaign. Now that the veterans believe they are above the law, he will find it difficult to restore their respect for law and order. Mr Mugabe still has eight provincial governorships to announce, and Mr Hunzvi might be placated by being given one of them.
From News24 (SA), 16 July
Farmers tense as reforms start
Harare - Worried white farmers took precautions ahead of anticipated land resettlements on Sunday, after the launch of a controversial land reform programme and President Robert Mugabe's announcement of a new cabinet. CFU official Malcolm Vowles, speaking from the northern Mashonaland Central district, said farmers were taking movable assets off their properties, fearing a sudden surge in land invasions. Vice President Joseph Msika had said on Saturday that landless blacks were to be resettled on 200 white farms and that occupying war veterans would be "shifted" from farms not designated for government seizure.
Also on Saturday, Mugabe announced the 19 members - 10 of them new - of his new cabinet following last month's general elections. Opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai on Sunday voiced his scepticism of the new cabinet, telling AFP: "This government is like putting new oil into an old engine." Fiery war veterans leader Chenjerai "Hitler" Hunzvi, whose supporters spearheaded the invasions of hundreds of white farms since February, did not get a cabinet post. He had said he expected one shortly after he was elected to a parliamentary seat in the 24 to 25 June poll. Hunzvi on Sunday appeared to widen the rift with the government, saying over ZBC radio that he and his war veterans "are not comfortable because they have no representation in the new cabinet". With Saturday's launch of the land reform programme, Hunzvi issued a direct challenge to the government saying war veterans would not be moved from the farms they were occupying.
The new cabinet has 17 full ministers and two heads of department, and includes several well-known faces in the business world, including ex-SADC secretary general Simba Makoni with the finance portfolio. Makoni will have to deal with Zimbabwe's worst economic crisis since independence in 1980. But opposition leader Tsvangirai, who failed to win a seat in the parliamentary elections, had little hope for the new government, saying: "The real problem is Mugabe. It doesn't matter what kind of people he puts into his cabinet... It doesn't augur well for the country," Tsvangirai said.
Analysts meanwhile also greeted the new cabinet with caution. Professor Alfred Nhema of the University of Zimbabwe said that while the new cabinet was "fairly balanced", the president would have to adopt a new style of management if government was to be effective. He told AFP that what was necessary was a "collegial type of relationship. ... The appointed minister can expect to have the full authority to act - rather than having to refer back to the president". Nhema said that the appointment of the internationally respected Makoni could go some way to "opening doors" towards international donors, who have frozen aid.
Meanwhile, farmers say they have not been told which 200 farms are to be taken for resettlement. At the same time, war veterans have stepped up their threats to farmers, said CFU's Vowles. "Part of the current phase is locking farm owners in their houses and saying they'll be released when removal lorries arrive," he told AFP. One farmer in Centenary, north of the capital Harare, was locked in by ex-combatants on Sunday morning, Vowles said. "The war veterans are going to be angry on several counts," Vowles said.
From The Independent (UK), 17 July
Mugabe dumps old allies as land crisis escalates
Harare - After 20 years in power, President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe dropped many of his long-standing political allies at the weekend, filling his new Cabinet with technocrats and business people in a desperate attempt to rescue Zimbabwe's shattered economy. But as the government launched its farms resettlement programme Mr Mugabe excluded the war veterans' leader Chenjerai "Hitler" Hunzvi from his government lineup, fuelling fears that the land crisis is about to become even more confused and volatile.
About 200 farm-owners were told at the weekend that they will shortly be receiving compulsory acquisition notices giving them a month to vacate their farms, which have now become state property. The plan is to begin resettling 150,000 peasants on to the first of 800 white-owned farms earmarked for acquisition earlier this year. The resettlement decision was welcomed by the white-dominated CFU.
However, Mr Hunzvi, who was elected to parliament last month and who had expected a place in government, immediately undermined hopes that the resettlement programme would appease his militant supporters. In a fiery speech on Saturday he told thousands of his supporters to remain on the white-owned farms they have been occupying in defiance of an order from the Vice President, Joseph Msika, that they move. But Mr Hunzvi demanded that war veterans be given 800 farms in the next fortnight. In a similar confrontation between Mr Msika and Mr Hunzvi in April, President Mugabe came down on the side of the war veterans.
They insist the President is the only politician who can order them to leave. After spending several months squatting on the farms, some war veterans are becoming increasingly impatient for their promised land. They are telling white owners to start packing their bags and are once again stepping up the level of violence. Mr Hunzvi warned that those farmers who were obstructive would find themselves "six feet under".
Mr Mugabe's reshuffle gave the key finance portfolio to Dr Simba Makoni, who enjoys respect from across the political spectrum despite being a well-established member of the ruling Zanu-PF party. In 1997, he was sacked as managing director of the state newspaper group after attempting to tone down the government propaganda it was churning out. President Mugabe clearly hopes Dr Makoni can entice back to Zimbabwe those international donors who have cut off aid over concerns about human rights and economic mismanagement. But that will depend on his freedom to manoeuvre - his predecessor agreed several deals with the IMF that Mr Mugabe refused to put into practice.
The new Minister of Lands, Agriculture and Rural Resettlement is a technocrat, Joseph Made, who will have the difficult task of selling a rational programme of land reform to the increasingly militant war veterans and Zanu-PF activists. As ever in Zimbabwe, everything boils down to Robert Mugabe. If he continues to back Mr Hunzvi and the illegal actions of his supporters, the future is bleak indeed. If he lets Mr Made and Dr Makoni do their jobs, there may be some room for hope.
From The Daily Telegraph (UK), 17 July
Mugabe accused of vandalism as land grab begins
Harare - Zimbabwe's white farmers awaited their fate yesterday after President Robert Mugabe embarked on the fastest, cheapest and most chaotic approach to the seizure of their property, condemned by landowners as "official vandalism". Desperate to hand out white farms as rapidly as possible, Vice President Joseph Msika launched the land grab with great fanfare on Saturday and promised that 200 properties would be seized "immediately". But he was unable to say which farms would be targeted and no landowners have yet received occupation orders.
The CFU expects to receive a list today and believes the expropriations will proceed later this week. Meanwhile, squatters who are illegally occupying more than 1,100 properties, are hammering at the gates of farmhouses and ordering the owners to leave their land. In the Centenary area, 90 miles north of Harare, 36 farmers had been given ultimatums by yesterday. Squatters trapped one farmer in his home yesterday afternoon. Greg McMurray, who owns Rianbuck Farm near Centenary, was forced to retreat inside his house when militant invaders objected to his labourers returning to work. Dave McCallum, whose Annandale Farm near Shamva has been occupied by 40 invaders, has been given four days to vacate his property. He said: "You can't talk with these guys, they're totally unreasonable. I don't know how this thing is going to end. I really have no idea. It's the uncertainty that's the worst."
The squatters demanded that Mr McCallum divide his farm into small plots and give each to a black family. This approach to resettlement, known as the "A1 villagised model", has become official policy and Mr Msika described it as "the government's top priority." Farms will be divided into 15 acre plots on which households will be resettled immediately. Apart from water, no infrastructure will be provided - families will have to build their own shelters and could find themselves completely isolated, miles from the nearest road. How they will receive seed and fertiliser is unclear.
A commercial farm that once exported goods and employed hundreds of people will be transformed into a peasant collective. A leading farmer said: "This is just official vandalism. It will rip the heart out of the agricultural industry. What it means is an extension of subsistence, peasant farming, which will be disastrous for the economy."
Zimbabwe's loss of export earnings and employment could also be disastrous. Farmers point out that resettlement might create more losers than winners: the 200 farms earmarked for seizure probably employ 40,000 workers and, including their families, at least 160,000 people could be dependent on their success. But the government only proposes to resettle 30,000 people on the acquired land. The leading farmer said: "The great unanswered question is what happens to the black workers already on the farms? No-one knows. The absurdity is that more black people could lose from this whole scheme than win."
A constitutional amendment passed in April has stripped farmers of their right to full compensation - nothing will be paid for the land itself, only for "improvements" such as roads or buildings. The government has given no details of when or how these payments will be made. This fast and cheap approach will ensure that donor countries refuse any support for resettlement and steer clear of Zimbabwe. John Robertson, an independent economist, said: "If we go ahead with these seizures, we could find it impossible to get back on terms with the international institutions whose support we desperately need."
From The Star (SA), 16 July
No real changes to Mugabe cabinet - analysts
Harare - Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has pumped fresh blood into his cabinet but power remains firmly with him and his party politburo, analysts said on Sunday. Mugabe said the new line-up reflected "new thinking" on tackling grave political and economic problems which many Zimbabweans blame squarely on his rule, but analysts said major policy changes were unlikely. They said Mugabe's line-up also lacked the ethnic balance he tried to maintain in the past for the unity of his Zanu-PF party, and could lead to serious divisions. His failure to give a post to the war veterans' leader, Chenjerai Hunzvi - who expected one - at a time when mobs of Zanu-PF militants led by the veterans are occupying hundreds of white-owned farms might also prove risky, they said.
Three weeks after his party scraped through its toughest electoral challenge in 20 years of power, Mugabe on Saturday appointed several young technocrats to his government and dropped over a dozen of his old guard. But analysts were unimpressed. "I just don't see how the new thinking will reflect itself in policy or management terms when those who effectively control the government, that is Mugabe and his politburo, don't seem amenable to any new ideas," said Professor Masipula Sithole, a leading political commentator. "He has obviously taken in some very respectable figures but I think they will have very little impact unless Mugabe lets them run the show, which is not his style," he said.
Sithole, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe, said Mugabe and the 25-member Zanu-PF politburo had already undercut the work of Simba Makoni, the new finance and economic development minister, by ruling out a currency devaluation. Makoni, a minister in the 1980s and for 10 years executive
secretary of SADC, is respected internationally and in Zimbabwe's private sector. "But he is a political lightweight, he does not sit in the politburo and will not be there when the real decisions are being made," Sithole said.
Political commentator Emmanuel Magade, a lecturer in procedural law, said the technocrats would only make an impact if Mugabe changed his outlook and dumped his associates. "What we have here is an acceptable public relations face, a respectable dress-up but the real test will be on what they are allowed to do," he said. The previous finance ministers - Bernard Chidzero, Ariston Chambati and Herbert Murerwa - although well espected, lacked the political clout to carry out their programmes.
Western diplomats have said for months the Zimbabwe dollar's valuation is key to a resumption of talks on suspended aid. The politburo says the unit - pegged artificially at 38 to the US dollar for over a year - will not be devalued soon as this would hurt ordinary people and undermine growth. The IMF, the World Bank and other Western donors have withheld aid since 1999 over policy differences, including Mugabe's drive to seize white-owned farms for blacks and his costly intervention in the war in the Congo. A senior foreign diplomat said Mugabe's hiring of technocrats would not be enough to win an automatic relaxation of conditions for aid.
Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the main opposition MDC, said the newcomers risked being made scapegoats if the government failed to turn the economy around. "There may be some people with good technical skills and expertise, but the problem is political, not the lack of technical skills," Tsvangirai told the privately owned weekly Standard newspaper. "I do not see this cabinet delivering as long as Mugabe is there, and these people will just be sacrificial lambs."
Analysts said Mugabe's failure to reward Hunzvi, who helped his government's re-election strategy by sending veterans into the countryside to invade farms and attack the opposition, could leave some of Hunzvi's men restless. Hunzvi was unavailable for comment on Sunday, but one analyst said: "Hunzvi and his people expected him to be in government and they may become more difficult to control if they feel used and discarded." Before the cabinet was announced on Saturday, Hunzvi told a war veterans' rally they would take over all of 804 white farms earmarked for black resettlement unless the government did so.
From The Financial Times (UK), 17 July
Militants challenge Mugabe cabinet
Harare - President Robert Mugabe's newly-appointed Zimbabwe cabinet on Sunday faced an immediate challenge to its authority when militant supporters gave the government a two-week ultimatum to respond to radical land demands. The deadline was delivered by Chenjerai Hunzvi, leader of veterans of Zimbabwe's civil war. Mr Mugabe's cabinet, from which Mr Hunzvi has been excluded, will be forced to choose between appeasing or confronting the 2,000 supporters spearheading a programme of seizure of white-owned land.
At the weekend, in an attempt to placate the militants, Joseph Msika, vice-president, announced that 200 white-owned farms would be resettled immediately. Mr Msika said the war veterans and their supporters, occupying some 800 farms, should now move on to the farms, expropriated by the state without compensation. But Dr Hunzvi, who had expected to be included in the cabinet which was announced this weekend, rejected the government proposal out of hand. The invaders would not move off occupied farms, he said, adding that he had given the government a two-week ultimatum to make adequate land available. If the farmers did not co-operate, said Mr Hunzvi, they would end up "six feet down".
Farmers say there has been no let-up in the pace of new invasions since last month's elections, nor of death threats and warnings to vacate their properties. It seems clear that at least some of the occupiers are determined to take over farms of their choice, rather than those designated by the government. The government now has to choose between rubber-stamping the illegal takeovers or sending in the police and army to drive out the veterans - a course of action already ruled out by Mr Mugabe.
The new cabinet has been welcomed by some business leaders, pleased with the appointment of Dr Simba Makoni as minister of finance and Dr Nkosana Moyo as industry and international trade minister. Farmers are happy also at the appointment of Mr John Nkomo as minister of home affairs, believing that he is more likely to take a tough line against land invasions than his predecessor. The cabinet has been cut from 28 to 19 ministers, many of whom were not elected but are among the members of parliament nominated by the president. Virtually half the cabinet is made up of Mugabe loyalists from the previous administration, while Jonathan Moyo, the ruling Zanu-PF's chief spin-doctor during the unsuccessful referendum and election campaigns, has been brought into the government as information minister.
From The Times (UK), 17 July
West Indies have no answer to power of Flower
CHESTER-LE-STREET (West Indies won toss): Zimbabwe beat West Indies by six wickets
NEVER underestimate the Zimbabwe cricket team. A partnership brimming with brilliant strokes by Murray Goodwin and Grant Flower took them to an outstanding victory over West Indies yesterday in the first close and memorable match of the NatWest Series, thereby turning the last two qualifying games this week into academic exercises. Zimbabwe will play England in the final at Lord's next Saturday, and even with depleted bowling resources, they are more than capable of winning the £30,000 prize to add to the £40,000 they have already garnered (excluding man-of-the-match awards) from four victories out of five.
The combination of a first-class pitch and welcome sunshine produced the highest scoring of the tournament and the first in which batsmen have dominated. Mighty striking by Brian Lara and Sherwin Campbell in a second-wicket partnership of 173 set a target beyond the reach of teams with less spirit and experience, but after early accidents Zimbabwe found in Goodwin and the younger Flower a combination to push West Indies to the limit. Flower was playing his 130th international, Goodwin his 69th. They know what is possible when good batsmen are well set on a pitch like this.
Zimbabwe still needed 186 off only 27 overs when they came together for the fifth wicket after two run-outs, for one of which Goodwin was more than half responsible. They never doubted their ability to pull it off, although 90 were still needed from the last ten overs, 47 from five and 29 from the final 18 balls. When accuracy was required neither Mervyn Dillon nor Nixon McLean could oblige.
Crucial extra runs and balls came from no-balls and wides, but it was resourcefulness of the strokeplay, especially by Flower in the final thrust, that settled the issue. Time and again he hit the bowlers off the leg stump through or over the off side with cleanly-struck blows. West Indies must have been confident that a total of 287 for five would suffice. Lara hit the ball brutally on his way to 87 from 76 balls and Campbell, who had never made a first-class fifty on this ground in his season for Durham in 1996, blossomed after a sticky start to reach a joyous hundred. To the delight of a crowd that exceeded 6,000 after the authorities had sensibly let people in for a maximum of £10 after the interval, there was plenty of spectacular batting to come.