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From News 24 (SA), 19 July

Farmers 'shut down' in dramatic protest

Harare - About 60 farmers in one of the most productive agricultural areas
of Zimbabwe shut down their farms on Tuesday to protest against the ongoing
land invasions by self-styled guerrilla war veterans. The sprawling,
emerald
green fields of winter wheat in the rich Glendale area about 80 km north of
Harare, usually dotted with labourers and arced by sprays of irrigation
sprinklers, were abandoned and eerily silent on Tuesday. Virtually the only
people at work were security guards manning electrified gates and workers
performing essential tasks such as milking dairy cows. "We have struggled
to
get police support in containing the very malicious round we are in now,"
said Malcolm Vowles, administrator for the CFU in the region. "The
community
made its stand, that until farming is returned to normality and we can
operate in safety and without interference, the district is shut down."

The farmers arranged the "strike" - the first collective action by the
predominantly white farming community since the land invasions began in
February - over their security radio system on Monday night. The final
straw
came when squatters smashed the gates of local farming association chairman
Nick Brooke's farmstead on Monday, and occupied his house. The invaders
declared they were taking ownership of Brooke's farmstead and the rest of
the 600ha of highly intensive mixed crop of wheat, cotton, maize, tobacco,
soya and export hothouse roses. Brooke and his family were in Harare when
the veterans occupied the house. They spent the night in the capital and on
Tuesday were still waiting anxiously to see if it was safe for them to
return.

"They were pretty violent, very abusive," said Dave Jenkins, 52, Brooke's
deputy in the farming association, who tried to negotiate with the veterans

to leave Brooke's farm. "They said they were the law and order." Glendale
is
in Mashonaland Central province. Although the province has been repeatedly
targeted by the war veterans, Glendale itself was relatively calm until
last
week when veterans began moving from farm to farm, telling owners to get
off
or be forcibly removed, and possibly even murdered. These threats came
despite statements by senior members of Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party that
the veterans should move off nearly all of the 1000 farms they occupied
from
February and on to about 200 properties which the government says it is in
the process of formally expropriating.

Jenkins said police were called repeatedly to deal with the veterans on
Brooke's farm, and promised to send officers there. "Nobody came. Still
this
morning, no-one had come. You feel helpless," he said. "The situation is
untenable. We've decided enough is enough. We can't do it physically, we
can't go and kick these guys off. We just decided yesterday, we've got to
do
something." Farmers will stay on their properties during the shut-down. "We
don't leave our homes and we don't abandon our labour. Once you do that,
it's pretty hard to come back." Jenkins hoped that the protest would not
have to go on for more than about four days. Farmers' losses this year have
been severe because of the violence. "If police came and got the veterans
out, we could be back working in full swing an hour later. We must get law
and order back and get on with the job of farming."

From The Daily Telegraph, UK), 19 July

Zimbabwe farmers strike over squatters

Irenedale farm - White Zimbabwean farmers raised the stakes in the land
crisis yesterday by shutting down their operations and demanding that the
police restore order. The first concerted protest against the wave of
illegal farm invasions, which has affected almost 1,700 properties since
land invasion began in February, was mounted by around 40 landowners in
Glendale district. The striking farmers, who say they have "nothing left to
lose", employ around 10,000 people. Scores of neighbouring farmers are
likely to join the strike in an area known as the breadbasket of Zimbabwe,
about 50 miles north of the capital Harare. Agriculture forms the backbone
of the national economy and their protest will be impossible for Robert
Mugabe's government to ignore.

The Glendale farmers said the final straw was the militant behaviour of
squatters over the past week and the inaction of the police. Since last
Thursday, mobs have broken into Kilmer farm and ordered Chris Hart to leave
his land before surrounding his house and lighting a bonfire on the lawn.
Gangs have invaded Heyshott farm three times and told John Sole, whose
1,000
employees run the region's most productive property, to leave and never
return. On Friday they broke through his fence and surrounded his house,
shouting death threats, while four policemen stood by and explained they
were present "only to observe".

Verona farm has been surrounded by mobs and on Mutoko farm a gang of 40
ordered the labourers to stop all work, before breaking into the homestead,
searching it from top to bottom and building a bonfire on the verandah.
Squatters still control Mutoko, and Nick Brooke, the owner, has been forced
to flee to Harare. His plight has brought the entire farming community out
on strike. Chris Thorne, who owns the nearby Irenedale farm, said: "The
situation is that all the Glendale farmers are stopping work until order
returns on Mutoko. Unless the police intervene and the situation there is
returned to normal, we have a mass shutdown."

All the Glendale farmers joined the strike at 6am yesterday without
hesitation. Irrigation systems have been switched off, workers are staying
at home and crops will neither be reaped nor sown. Mr Thorne said: "We have
reached the point where we have nothing more to lose. We can't go on like
this. We can't live or farm under these conditions. We have to act now and
I
believe we will be successful because in the end good always wins over
evil.
And what has been happening here is evil." The grimly determined landowners
have acted on their own initiative and the CFU has not approved the strike.

Mr Thorne said: "All we want is for the rule of law to be restored. "None
of
us has any problem with land reform. We just want order. That's the bottom
line; finish. Until they do that, we are shut down." Irenedale's 2,500
acres
were deserted yesterday and rolling fields of wheat, crucial for Zimbabwe's
bread supplies, waved in the wind, untended by any workers. Dusty tracks
between farms, normally filled with tractors and lorries, were empty. The
40
farms employ 10,000 people and have a turnover of £17 million, vital
earnings for Zimbabwe's crisis-hit economy. At immediate risk are 35,000
tons of wheat due for delivery to the silos.

Ian McKersie, whose Davaar farm has shut down, is fully aware of the risks.
He said: "We are all under financial pressure. But we have to do something
now, before the situation becomes irretrievable. We can't allow this thing
to drag on. We have to act and everyone has responded. I don't know any
farmer who has been reluctant." Farmers in other areas of Zimbabwe were
quick to applaud the strike. But some fear an explosive reaction from Mr
Mugabe, who could accuse the landowners of holding the country to ransom to
protect their vested interests. Mr McKersie rejects this charge. He said:
"This has nothing to do with land reform, which we all agree with. It is
simply about law and order, which is something every citizen has a right to
expect."

From News 24 (SA), 18 July

Zanu-PF's hitlist growing

Bulawayo - The president of a Bulawayo-based pressure group, Imbovane
Yamahlabezulu, Bekithemba Sibindi, says he has received anonymous
threatening calls accusing him of having helped to influence the defeat of
Zanu-PF in Matabeleland in the recent parliamentary election. Sibindi joins
Roman Catholic Church Archbishop Pius Ncube, who has also been allegedly
included on a hit list of people identified as Zanu PF enemies.

President Robert Mugabe has openly mentioned the Archbishop, accusing him
of
having swayed the vote in Matabeleland against Zanu-PF, reports the
Dispatch, a Bulawayo weekly newspaper. The party was trounced by the MDC in
Matabeleland where it won only two seats against 21 that went to the
labour-backed MDC. Zanu-PF's witch-hunt for people suspected to have
influenced the vote against it has also identified the outspoken Governor
for Matabeleland North, Welshman Mabhena, as being one of the culprits.

One of the anonymous calls to Sibindi was from a Harare number, shown on
his
cell phone during the interview with this reporter. When The Dispatch made
a
follow-up to trace the number it was answered by someone who said the
telephone was that of the President's Office. Sibindi said he had also
received anonymous letters threatening him. "The sources told me that I am
one of the people who have been named for bringing the downfall of Zanu-PF
in Matabeleland," he said. He added that his sources said his questioning
of
the government's sincerity in compensating survivors of Gukurahundi victims
killed in Matabeleland and the Midlands in the early 1980s was cited as
being responsible for hostility by the establishment.

"I now fear for my life and that of my family," he said. Sibindi, a school
teacher, said he had been advised by senior members of the MDC to watch out
for reprisals by the ruling party. In February, Sibindi lost favour with
the
government-appointed Constitutional Commission when he spearheaded the
no-vote that led to the rejection of a new draft constitution.

Meanwhile, the Zimbabwe Liberators' Platform (ZLP) has condemned
State-sponsored violence and human rights abuses and called on war veterans
to resist being manipulated. The ZLP, a faction of the war veterans, said
they supported Archbishop Ncube's stance against violence and human rights
abuses. In a statement on Sunday, the ZLP said: "We support him on his
non-partisan approach to the current political climate which is expected of
a clergyman. Archbishop Ncube has openly condemned violence and political
intimidation. "His encouragement of people to vote for whomever they want
not only agrees with the supreme law of the land, but is also one of the
reasons why people fought for the liberation of this country." Ncube has
said he believes he is on a "hit list" of the secret service, the CIO.

From The Star (SA), 19 July

Zim opposition makes mark in parliament

Harare - Zimbabwe's new parliament, with the largest opposition contingent
in the nation's history, was sworn in on Tuesday and it almost immediately
sent a message to President Robert Mugabe that his two decades of
authoritarian rule will no longer go unchallenged. The 58 opposition
lawmakers were joined by one ruling party legislator in voting against
former justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa's candidacy for speaker of the
150-member parliament. Though Mnangagwa won easily with 87 votes, the
strong
challenge to the ruling party's candidate was a huge change from the
previous parliament where Mugabe's party controlled all but three seats.
Two
legislators were absent from the vote and two ballots were disqualified.

"The role of parliament is not to govern the country but to ensure that
government does so with some form of transparency," said opposition
lawmaker
Learnmore Jongwe, the MDC's shadow information minister. For the first
time,
the ruling ZANU-PF would not have it all its own way in the parliament,
Jongwe said. "It's healthy. We can ensure Zanu-PF is brought to account for
all of its decisions," he added.

Mnangagwa was among the ruling party candidates defeated in the election,
but Mugabe later appointed him to the parliament. Mugabe will formally open
Parliament on Thursday. Opposition lawmakers jeered as incoming legislator
Chenjerai Hunzvi, leader of a war veterans group that spearheaded the farm
occupations, swore that he did "solemnly and sincerely affirm and declare
... to bear true allegiance to Zimbabwe and observe the laws of Zimbabwe".
Hunzvi, of the ruling party, raised a militant clenched fist salute while
taking the oath. Outside the parliament building, hundreds of rival party
supporters cheered their chosen lawmakers as they arrived for the ceremony.
Opposition supporters gave the MDC's open hand salute and chanted the
party's slogan, "chinja," or "change" in the Shona language.

From Extract from Daily News, 19 July, 2000

Commotion in House as new MPs take oath

After Zvoma proclaimed that Mnangagwa, 58 had been elected speaker of the
5th parliament, Shuvai Mahofa MP for Gutu South, and Joyce Mujuru, the
Minister for Rural Resources and Water Development, jumped from their seats
and led Zanu PF MP's in a war dance singing loudly in Shona "Zimbabwe
ndeyeropa baba, Zimbabwe ndeyeropa ramadzibaba" (Zimbabwe's Independence
was
won through bloodshed).

Taken by complete surprise by this sudden outburst on the part of Zanu PF,
MDC MPs momentarily sat glued on their seats.

Then, one by one, they all stood up.  Then, chanting in unison, they
drowned
the Zanu PF voices as they sang "Zanu yawora, Zanu yawora!" (Zanu in now
rotten).

As if on cue, the Zanu PF members suddenly became quiet, retreated to their
seats and watched in silence as the MDC MPs sang to their hearts' content.

Dressed in his black and white ceremonial robes, Zvoma was forced to raise
his voice above the din to call for order in the chamber before restoring
some semblance of decorum in the august house.

Keep up the support!

Regards,

MDC Support Centre
8th Floor, Gold Bridge
Eastgate
Harare

Guqula Izenzo/Maitiro Chinja

"The people of Zimbabwe have begun the process of reclaiming power and the
institution of true democratic change." (Morgan Tsvangirai)
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COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
 
FARM INVASIONS UPDATE
 
SATURDAY 22 JULY 2000
 
 
 
REGIONAL REPORTS
 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL 
Centenary - At Rianbuck Farm, war vets threatened retaliation following arrests earlier this week on charges of assault.  Police responded and defused the situation.  Similarly, war vets who were arrested for diesel theft threatened the owner of Viewfield Farm, but the police took a firm stance.  Tractor work has been stopped on Nyamanetsa and Kingstone Devrill.  The owner of Ashford Farm continues to receive telephone death threats.
 
Horseshoe - The labourers of Nyamfuta Farm have been told to vacate the farm village by 26th July.  Despite persistent intimidation and daily pungwes, the owner of Woma Farm has remained on the farm a full week after his "deadline" for eviction. 
 
Victory Block - The owner of Birkdale received a threat yesterday afternoon to vacate his farm within 24 hours.  The owners of Velvekia have received threats that if they do not vacate the farm by 26th July, they will be barricaded in their home.  On the same property, 5km of fencing was stolen and a cow was wounded on the head by axe.  War vets intimidated workers on Msitwe River Ranch and threatened to assault the health worker.
 
Mvurwi - One farm guard was assaulted yesterday on Four Streams Farm in retaliation against hostile action by workers earlier in the week.  A large group of war vets has gathered at this property today for possible retribution.
 
Mazowe/Concession - There is ongoing conflict between various groups claiming the same farms.  The owner of Belgownie was given 24 hours to vacate when he refused accommodation.  The workers took a supportive stance and police defused the situation. 
 
Glendale - The situation is stable at Mukoko Farm which was the focus of the district shut-down during the week.  There were visits and pegging on Verona and Villa Franca yesterday. 
 
Mutepatepa - CIO investigated reports of assaults on Avoca Farm where there has been a build up of numbers.  A group of about 25 visited Bourtonvale and stated that they would return next week.
 
Shamva - The district decided to shut-down today after attempts to stabilise the situation on Woodlands B were not successful.  War vets at Woodlands A are still camping by the fence, despite an order by the police to observe a 100 metre perimeter.  Security Co-ordinators are working closely with the police to resolve these issues.
 
Harare West / Nyabira - The owners of Maypark Farm continue to be subjected to pressure and a large group gathered there yesterday.
 
MASHONALAND EAST
Marondera -  Mari: The war vets brought their cattle onto the farm on Sunday 16th and the owner called the police twice but they never came.  Another 15 invaders arrived and are building well established huts.  Homepark: Another three heifer weaners were axed and the one resident war vet Mrs Kadengoni issued a death threat to a couple who reside on the farm.  Setaton: The farm owner is breaking down a house and the war vets have told him not to as they are moving into the house. They have threatened to come with more people and beat the farm labour.  Situations on Chapungu and Dormavale are ongoing.

Harare South/ Beatrice -  Unable to contact

Wedza -  Poltimore: One calf was killed.  Anstey: 2 beasts slashed but should recover.  Msasa Estate: 2 women who were retrenched went to war vet Chigwadere and complained. Chigwadere phoned the FA Chairman and threatened work stoppages if this was not reversed.   Ruware: The farm clerk was paid off yesterday and then ran off to war vet Chigwadere and complained. Chigwadere phoned the FA Chairman and threatened a massive farm invasion unless the clerk was reinstated.

Macheke/Virginia - Only two work stoppages continue today.

The rest of the Region has nothing to report.

 
MASHONALAND WEST NORTH
Karoi - on Ruwanzi Farm 2 km of six-strand fencing stolen and reported to ploice, poaching ongoing and game guards have shot 2 dogs and retrieved hunting spears.  On Collingwood 1 km of fencing stolen, poaching of game and fish continues - war vets claim all game is their property, no land prep or fire guard prep allowed, shacks being built on fire guards.  On Pumula war vets entered by force and moved into empty homestead, police unable to react due to no transport, so it was reported to Dispol.  On Templecomb war vets demanded that beans must be removed from lands, pivot and all "katundu" (belongings) must be removed.  On Hesketh Park poaching problem is intensifying.  On Grand Parade trouble followed when farmer moved cattle without war vets ' permission.  Farm foreman, workers , farmer's wife and son were threatened, and stockmen were kidnapped.  One farm guard that war vets objected to had to be dismissed in interests of harmony.  On Nassau war vets stopped tractors working, claiming it was their land.  Farmer was unable to get police to repond and an unpleasant situation developed between officer-in-charge and farmer.  On Buffalo Daowns, maize has been stolen.
 
Chinhoyi area - there are reports that a number of farms have been visited by three people in a white Nissan Sunny who are rather intimidating and state that they are taking over the farms.  This is under investigation.  Slaughtering of cattle, snaring and poaching are being reported throughout.
 
MASHONALAND WEST SOUTH
Chakari - approx 40 invaders surrounded a farm house in a threatening manner, letting the air out of the farmer's vehicles, and holding an all-night pungwe, but police have reacted and the situation is currently calm.
Chegutu -  a mob of approx 160 have moved out of town on the Concession Hill Rd and onto La Forte Farm, following on from yesterday's situation, but police have reacted and dispersed the crowd, and all is calm.
 
MASVINGO
Situation is the same, with invasions, pegging, poaching, tree-cutting and clearing on-going throughout the province.  A set of safari clients had to be evacuated from one farm.  Of concern is that certain police officials who are trying to do their work are coming under political pressure.  Captain Zimuto, a senior war vet in the area who was under warrant of arrest, appeared in court for breaching the peace and has been found guilty.  Sentence is expected to be passed on Monday.
 
MANICALAND
Nothing to report. 
 
MATABELELAND
No reports of problems today.
 
MIDLANDS
No specific incidents to report, just a general trend of increased movements onto farms, sometimes new and unidentified farms, as if to stake claim to territory.
 
 
 
 
 
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The Zimbabwe Economy - a Weekly Brief
21 July 2000


Well now we know its true - on Monday the Ministry of Finance issued a
bulletin in which it revealed for the first time that they had "reviewed"
the Millenium Budget six weeks into the new financial year. In doing so they
revised expenditure upwards from Z$99 billion to Z$142 billion!

MDC said it first - 4 months ago we said that Government expenditure was
going over Z$160 billion in the year 2000 and that this was due to debt
servicing and our own estimates of new expenditures that had not been
budgeted in the original budget exercise. Our team was regarded as being
alarmist and of making statements that were purely political in character.
Now we know that the Ministry of Finance and the government deliberately
withheld this new information from Parliament, from the international
community and from the Zimbabwe public - until the elections were over.

The one thing you must never do is lie to your Bankers - and Zimbabwe has
lied over and over again to the IMF and the World Bank in whose hands our
economic future lies in the short term. Herbert Murewa lied over the cost of
the war in the DRC - understating expenditures by 10 times - stating that it
was costing us about US$3 million a month when in fact all other estimates
put the total at about US$1,3 million a day.  They lied over the extent of
the budget deficit in the Millenium Budget and in the "Millenium Economic
Recovery Plan". Now President Mugabe forecasts in his opening of Parliament
speech in Harare on the 20th of July, that the deficit will not exceed 5 per
cent of GDP in the year 2000.  When will they ever learn?

The President's speech contained nothing of substance - no word on the state
of the economy apart from a couple of platitudes and false statements,
nothing on the rule of law and the current state of lawlessness in the
country, nothing about the economic crisis and the collapse of the economy.
Even the remarks about fuel shortages and other critical problems were
blamed on others - thank goodness he did not repeat his statement that the
farmers were responsible for the fuel shortages because they were hoarding
fuel.

The difference with this Parliament and the last, is that when Ministers or
the President himself stands up and makes such statements they will now be
greeted with derision and laughter. Gone are the days when he could rely on
the praise singers to ensure that when he spoke, his words were taken as
gospel and written down to be repeated in reverential tone at every
opportunity.

We stick to our principles on the fundamentals in the economy - actual
government expenditures well over Z$162 billion, an associated budget
deficit of over 20 per cent of GDP is certain, domestic debt of Z$120
billion and rising at Z$2 billion a week.  Total foreign earnings declining
by 50 per cent over last year and GDP falling by 10 per cent or more this
year. Inflation is expected to top out at over 85 per cent by December and
real incomes to fall dramatically. Employment to bottom out at the lowest
level as a percentage of our total population in 80 years. What a record for
the ruling party, what a tragedy for Zimbabwe and the southern African
region.

We have waited with baited breath to see some sign that the government will
now get down to work and start to tackle the essential issues. These we see
as being: -

1. The restoration of the rule of law - including upholding the
constitution, protecting citizens rights and respecting property and other
economic rights.
2. The adoption of a credible economic recovery plan which will be
acceptable to our Bankers and will solve the more pressing immediate
problems and hopefully halt the economic decline taking place.
3. Going back to a legal, transparent and sustainable basis for land
reform which will empower rural people, distribute economic assets more
equitably and secure our agricultural industries future.

So far we are disappointed - no sign whatsoever that these matters are to be
tackled in a constructive manner.  Instead we have statements like the one
at the opening of Parliament - a significant one as it is supposed to be
written by government officials and Ministers to set the legislative agenda
for the new Parliament. Then we have the continued talk about the MERP - as
if this statement had any credibility and Ministers still talk about the
continuation of the state of lawlessness on the farms, the virtual
suspension of the constitution and continued instructions to the Police not
to protect citizens rights as enshrined in the constitution and the law.

On top of that we have talk of price controls, the Zimbabwe dollar is still
pegged at an artificial value and there is talk of interest rate pegging by
the Reserve Bank. When will it all end?

The new Cabinet has some good people in it - but so did the outgoing
Cabinet. We lose some, gain some, the problem with the new "good guys" is
that they have no political power base and cannot stand up to the President
when it comes to making the tough decisions. Chinamasa will remain a doormat
for the President on legal matters, Simba Makoni and Nkosanna Moyo will
likewise be used and abused and then tossed out the door. The inclusion of
these technocrats in the Cabinet does not signal a change of heart - just a
new set of sacrificial lambs to take the place of those who have lost.

I personally will be sorry to see Dumiso Dabengwa go into retirement - he
was an effective Minister and did not agree with all that was going on -
even had the courage to say he was quitting when the soccer debacle took
place in Harare. He will be better off back on the farm.

Eddie Cross

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ZIMBABWE: AT THE CROSSROADS
10 July 2000
ICG Africa Report N°22


Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS *
I. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN *
  A. Background *
  B. Party Strategies *
  C. Conduct of the Campaign *
II. THE RESULT *
III. THE ECONOMY *
IV. THE LAND ISSUE *
V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS *


APPENDICES

About the International Crisis Group
ICG Reports and Briefing Papers
ICG Board Members



ZIMBABWE: AT THE CROSSROADS


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Zimbabwe's 24-25 June 2000 parliamentary election resulted in President
Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU (PF) party retaining power. However, the
nine-month-old opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),
made an impressive showing, winning 57 of the 120 contested seats. This
represents a significant democratic advance in a country which, since
independence in 1980, has been essentially a one party state.

With the elections over, Zimbabwe faces many immediate challenges. The
first is whether the new ZANU (PF) government will take note of the massive
shift in voter sentiment and reconstitute itself as an effective,
responsible government capable of addressing the very serious problems
facing the country, or simply be a continuation of the last government,
which demonstrably failed to deliver on a broad range of issues.

Among the issues the new government must address immediately are whether to
restore and reaffirm the rule of law which has been willfully violated over
the period March-June in the run-up to the election; and whether to
credibly address the declining economy which is in critical free fall with
the prospect of a 10-20 per cent drop in 2000 GDP with all the attendant
social and possibly political consequences.

In the absence of an effective new government committed to take the tough
but necessary steps to turn the economy around, Zimbabwe will face
continued increases in inflation, unemployment, and interest rates (all
three well over 50 per cent). As of the election, international and
investor confidence in Zimbabwe was virtually nil and Zimbabwe's programs
with the World Bank and IMF had both been suspended because of arrears and
failure to meet previously agreed conditionalities. Without prompt,
demonstrable, positive action on the economic front, it is entirely
possible that Zimbabwe will face food, fuel, electricity and other
shortages that could lead to civil unrest by the end of 2000.

What happens in Zimbabwe also has major implications for its Southern
African neighbouring states, particularly in relation to investor
confidence, tourism, exchange rates, and possible refugee flows.

Many people in Zimbabwe, both in government and in the private sector,
understand that Zimbabwe will need substantial outside financial assistance
to reverse the economic decline. They have high, perhaps too high,
expectations for such support. Having lost the confidence of the
international community and would-be investors, Zimbabwe must now take
concrete actions to win it back.

The biggest question mark hanging over Zimbabwe is President Robert Mugabe.
He has selfishly and single-handedly sacrificed his country's economy and
once positive international image to his all consuming obsession to retain
power. Will he change after the election? Is he capable of changing and
leading his country forward? The initial signs are not encouraging but it
may be that the momentum for change with or without Mugabe not only coming
from the opposition but from within ZANU (PF) itself proves irresistible.

It is vitally important that the international community and in particular
all those governments and international organisations that have some
capacity to offer or withdraw economic or other forms of support from
Zimbabwe not lose interest in the country now that the election is over.

The best way that the international community can help is by accepting
nothing less than positive, concrete steps in return for its support. It
must remain especially wary of taking at face value what President Mugabe
says, and not, as has often been the case in the past, give him the benefit
of the doubt.


RECOMMENDATIONS

For the government of Zimbabwe:

1. Restore the rule of law. This would include enforcement of outstanding
court orders with respect to the land invasions by the so-called War
Veterans, and the arrest and prosecution of those responsible for the
pre-election violence that claimed the lives of over 30 Zimbabweans of all
races.

2. Do not victimise the MDC opposition, and work cooperatively with it.

3. Address immediately the ballooning budget deficit on the current account.

4. Re-engage immediately with the World Bank, the IMF, and other potential
sources of outside assistance.

5. Take serious steps to establish a partnership with the private sector to
address the most serious economic and social issues facing the country.

6. Address the land reform issue in a transparent, non political manner
that takes into account interests of all those involved, perhaps through
the establishment of an independent land commission.

7. Withdraw the Zimbabwe armed forces deployed in the Democratic Republic
of the Congo (DRC).

For the international community:

8. Continue programs that promote democracy and human rights and those that
respond to genuine humanitarian needs.

9. If the new government takes concrete steps to address the agenda of
recommendations described above, re-engage with it on a carefully
calibrated basis, responding to performance, not promises.

10. If the government continues along previous lines, continuing to flout
acceptable international norms and ignoring the demonstrated will of the
people as reflected in the election results:

  a) Limit or downgrade diplomatic relations: in the case of the
Commonwealth, by moving to suspend membership, and in the case of the EU by
considering suspension of Zimbabwe's privileged trade access.

  b) Isolate senior government and ZANU (PF) leaders by declining to
receive them abroad: stop visa issuance to senior officials.

  c) Continue the near universal suspension of foreign assistance programs.

  d) Make it clear, both publicly and privately, that until such time as
Zimbabwe measures up to acceptable international standards on the rule of
law, human rights, and general good governance there will be no return to
"business as usual".



ZIMBABWE: AT THE CROSSROADS


I. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

A. Background

Zimbabwe's fifth parliamentary election, on 24-25 June 2000, was the first
serious election since the one in 1980 that brought to an end white-run
Rhodesia's fifteen year Unilateral Declaration of Independence and the
resultant bloody civil war, and an extraordinary one by any measurement.
The issue in the 1980 election was peace or the threat of more war. The
issue in the 2000 election was change or the continuation in power of the
well-entrenched ZANU (PF) government of President Robert Mugabe.

For nearly twenty years, President Mugabe and ZANU (PF) ruled Zimbabwe
increasingly autocratically, confident of the solid support of the heavily
rural black electorate. Beginning in late 1997, however, with a
budget-busting promise of compensation to the Liberation Struggle War
Veterans and a parallel announcement that government would acquire 1500
white-owned Commercial farms without full compensation, the tide of
domestic sentiment began to shift. The Zimbabwe Confederation of Trade
Unions mounted an effective general strike to protest tax increases that
government proposed to pay for the War Veterans pay out. That led through
intervening events to the eventual formation of the MDC as an opposition
political party in September 1999. Between 1997 and 1999 there were
increasing pressures from many quarters of civil society for a revision of
the constitution.

President Mugabe eventually was obliged to appoint a Constitutional
Commission to come up with a new draft constitution to be put to a national
referendum. Depending on ones perspective, some of its work was positive,
as in providing for a prime minister, and some negative, as in broadening
presidential powers. In any case, President Mugabe, after receiving the
Commissions report, added some clauses of his own, including a provision
allowing for the acquisition of commercial farm land without compensation
unless the British government paid for it.

A national referendum on the proposed draft constitution was held in
mid-February 2000 and, to the surprise of almost everyone, it lost by a
55-45 margin. The MDC had actively opposed it and ZANU (PF) had
complacently assumed an easy victory. The result was a wake-up call for the
President and his party. Despite accusations that the whites (who make up
well under 1 per cent of the voters) and the British had conspired to
defeat the draft constitution, ZANU (PF) recognised the defeat for what it
was; a vote of no confidence by the black electorate.

With their eye on the constitutionally required year 2000 Parliamentary
elections, President Mugabe and his ZANU (PF) party turned their attention
to reasserting control over the black electorate. According to numerous
credible accounts, there were in fact open challenges to Mugabe's continued
party leadership at a post-referendum ZANU (PF) party Central Committee
meeting. These he brushed aside, reportedly telling the party he would show
them how to win an election. The party fell into line but, again according
to reliable sources, the ensuing campaign was clearly directed by Mugabe
with little or no consultation with his cabinet or party. His political
life was on the line and he was not about to lose, whatever the consequences.

B. Party Strategies

ZANU (PF). The ZANU (PF) campaign was personally directed by President
Mugabe supported by a few close advisors and implemented by the party
bureaucracy. They knew they could not run on the government's and party's
recent record which includes unemployment, inflation and interest rates all
at well over 50 per cent and rising, fuel and electricity shortages, and no
foreign exchange. Understandably, they knew they had to divert voters
attention from these very real issues, and blame others for their failures.

As reflected in the Party manifesto and in Mugabe's campaign speeches at
party rallies across the country, ZANU (PF) themes were:

Liberation War nostalgia: "We are the party that brought peace in 1980 and
remain deserving of support."

Land - the unfinished agenda of the liberation struggle: "We will take it
from the white farmers and give it to you."

Race: "The whites are our enemy. The MDC is a front for the whites. Don't
be deceived."

The foreign devil, particularly the British government: "They support the
MDC. They want to recolonize Zimbabwe."

These themes, plus party loyalty and the effects of the party-sponsored
violence and intimidation, resonated in rural Zimbabwe where the population
tends to be more traditional, less well educated, and less directly
affected by the economic challenges facing Zimbabwe. Indeed, the poll
results show that almost all of ZANU (PF) victories came in rural areas.

MDC. The MDC as a new party with very little infrastructure, virtually
unknown candidates, and physically blocked from campaigning in many rural
constituencies, ran on the basic theme of "change". It aimed its appeal at
the country's urban areas with some spillover into rural areas,
particularly in provinces which had historically been hostile to ZANU (PF)
such as Matabeleland.

The MDC's message in addition to "it's time for a change" and that "enough
is enough" of misrule, mismanagement and corruption by the ruling party was
a promise of future good governance. They played heavily on the urban
voters economic woes rising unemployment, and higher food, housing, and
energy prices. It was almost a Clintonian "it's the economy, stupid" theme
and it worked, with the MDC carrying all the urban and peri-urban seats by
wide margins.

C. Conduct of the Campaign

The "campaign" began in early March with farm invasions / occupations by
the war veterans accompanied by ZANU (PF), and assisted by state security
operatives. There is no question that the occupations were directed or
condoned by Mugabe. The invaders terrorised, beat, intimidated and, over
the ensuing months, killed five white farmers and at least 25 black alleged
MDC supporters. The violence and intimidation spread from the farm workers
to school teachers and others believed likely to be MDC supporters across
the country, but with particular focus on the rural areas. The National
Democratic Institute (NDI), Amnesty International, and the EU observer
delegation to the Parliamentary elections all have reported on the
extensive pre-election violence and intimidation, which they judged to
compromise the prospects for free and fair elections no matter how accurate
the actual polling turned out to be.

The ruling party's determination to put obstacles in the path of the
opposition took a number of other forms. The state controlled media lauded
ZANU (PF) and gave scant, and then only negative, mention to the MDC. The
government's last minute decision to exclude all non-government
international election observers (including the NDI and the International
Republican Institute) left only 305 foreign observers (mostly the EU and
Commonwealth delegations) to cover over 4000 polling places. Of the 24,000
Zimbabwean nationals who applied to be election monitors, only 4000 were
accredited, and then only at the last minute, leaving a great many unable
to perform their role effectively on the first day. The governments control
of the electoral process also raised serious questions as to the fairness
and transparency of the process. For example, up to 10 per cent of would-be
voters were turned away from polling places because of seriously flawed
voter rolls.

The EU released the final report of its observer mission on 4 July 2000.
This report commended the determination of Zimbabweans to influence the
future of their country, but judged that the violence in the period prior
to the election marred the final result and that the electoral
administration was hindered by lack of openness and transparency. The EU
report concludes with a recommendation for close monitoring, with
particular attention to rule of law and the issue of land reform, and to
provide assistance and support where appropriate. The final report of the
Commonwealth's observer mission is scheduled for release on 13 July 2000,
and should no doubt shed further light on how the election as a whole
should be characterised.


II. THE RESULT

President Mugabe's ZANU (PF) narrowly won by a margin of 62 to 57 seats
over the new, less than one year old MDC. One seat was won by a small
party, ZANU-Ndonga. The parties have 30 days to contest the results, and
the MDC has announced its intention to do so in as many as 20
constituencies, with consequences that cannot be foreseen at this stage.

The turnout was huge, with over 60 per cent of eligible voters
participating, the highest since 1980. Under the Zimbabwe Constitution,
President Mugabe appoints an additional twenty members of Parliament (eight
provincial governors, and twelve of his own free choosing), together with
another ten proposed by the Council of Chiefs. Thus in the new parliament
ZANU (PF) will effectively have a majority of 92 seats to the MDC's 57. It
is, however, significant that with its 57 seats, the MDC can block any ZANU
(PF) sponsored changes to the constitution, which require a two thirds
positive vote.

Every election lends itself to instant analysis of the results and
observations as to their meaning, and Zimbabwe's year 2000 results are
especially rich in this regard. Time will lend further perspective, but
what can be said now is at least this:

Politically and economically the divide between rural and urban Zimbabwe
was dramatically revealed by the election results - almost a tale of two
countries.

Also revealed, most notably in urban constituencies, was a generational
divide between the better educated, better informed, post-liberation war
generation and their elders. ZANU (PF)'s appeal to nostalgia, land, race
and the British devil fell on deaf ears with younger Zimbabweans. They want
jobs, not land. They feel the economic decline as it affects their life
styles, and they want good governance. The MDC's message was well received.

Zimbabwe is a vastly different country today than in 1980. The electorate
is much better educated - almost 90 per cent literate (compare, say, with
Pakistan and India at about 35 per cent and 50 per cent respectively). The
government in the early 1980's controlled almost all information. Today,
that control is gone except for the state owned media. Satellite TV is
everywhere, and in the last few years cell phones have become the preferred
means of communication. And a vigorous independent press plays an important
role in informing the public despite government attempts to control it.

That the MDC won almost half the contested constituencies and came within
27,000 votes of splitting the popular vote is all the more remarkable given
the governments and ruling party's determination to squash its efforts and
put obstacles in its path.

Only time will tell whether this election makes a difference in the way
Zimbabwe is governed in the months and years ahead. As this is written,
days after the election results were announced, there is unconfirmable
speculation in Harare about debates within ZANU (PF) across a spectrum of
options from President Mugabe stepping down and calling an early
presidential election to talk of a government of national unity.

However events further unfold, this election did on any view mark a
dramatic shift towards real democracy in Zimbabwe. After twenty years of
essentially one party rule, a viable, credible opposition has emerged, real
democracy has been given a firm footing by the electorate and, in the words
of MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, "Zimbabwe will never be the same again".

What is most important now is how ZANU (PF) and the MDC adjust to the new
reality, and how they lead Zimbabwe forward. There is no shortage of issues
for them to address, the economy and land pre-eminent among them.


III. THE ECONOMY

Zimbabwe's economy is sick and getting sicker by the day. It will need
substantial outside assistance to get the economy back on track. Whether
that help will be forthcoming should depend very much on the concrete steps
the new government takes to address its problems. To appreciate the
magnitude of the economic resuscitation task facing the new government,
consider the following:

Unemployment, inflation and interest rates are all running at well over 50
per cent and rising.

Year 2000 GDP is projected to drop by between 10 and 20 per cent.

Government debt stands at about Z$110 billion as of 26 June and is rising
at the rate of Z$2 billion plus a week, just on the basis that it is being
financed at an interest rate of 58 per cent.

The government budget deficit on the current account for the year 2000 is
predicted to be in the range of 10-14 per cent.

As a direct result of Zimbabwe's negative image abroad, based on
pre-election violence and political uncertainty, tourist bookings are down
by 80 per cent. (Tourism had been the fastest growing earner of foreign
exchange.) For the same reason, tobacco sales (which normally make up 30
per cent of Zimbabwe's export earnings) have fallen off dramatically as
foreign buyers have stayed away from the auction floors. Wheat plantings
are down by 22 per cent for the current season which will require in US$100
million in imports if the people are to have bread. Similarly, tobacco
plantings for the next season are expected to fall by 10-20 per cent
because of uncertainty linked to the governments land acquisition program.

New domestic and foreign investment is non-existent due to the
non-availability of credit, high interest rates, and political uncertainty.

Foreign exchange for vital imports of inputs for the manufacturing, mining,
and agricultural sectors is next to unavailable, as what forex there is
goes to paying off already huge arrears for fuel and electricity imports
and the costs of Zimbabwe's military deployment in the DRC.

Both the IMF and World Bank have suspended their programs in Zimbabwe, as
have most other international donors.

This is not a pretty picture, nor one that does the Mugabe government any
credit. By all accounts, including that of the beleaguered Governor of the
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, the economy had performed strongly from 1993
until near the end of 1997. But in November 1997 President Mugabe had a
very difficult meeting with the war veterans, and, without consulting his
Cabinet, gave into their demands for compensation. This involved a
budget-busting one-time payment of Z$50,000 for each of 70,000 veterans
plus continuing payments of Z$2,000 a month. At the roughly the same time
President Mugabe announced his intention to acquire 1500 commercial farms
for resettlement. The twin moves shattered domestic and international
confidence and the Zimbabwe dollar dropped an immediate 20 per cent against
the US dollar and continued to slide lower.

Mugabe's August 1998 decision, again without cabinet consultation, to
deploy Zimbabwean armed forces to the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(DRC) at an acknowledged cost of US$ million a month added to the downward
economic spiral. One source commented that the real costs were far higher,
and that 2 million litres of fuel a week goes to support the 11,000
deployed troops while citizens queue for fuel back home.

Since the start of the 2000 political season (the constitutional referendum
in February) both monetary and fiscal policy have been on hold and the
domestic debt and budget deficit have ballooned. No affordable domestic
credit or foreign exchange is available to the private sector. Some
factories have closed and many are on short work weeks. Workers are being
laid off in all sectors.

ICG sources lay the blame for this economic debacle almost entirely on
President Mugabe, who made all the key wrong decisions on his own.
Compounding the economic mismanagement, of course, were his post-referendum
decisions to support war veterans invasions of commercial farms, the
violent March-June intimidation of perceived political opponents, and his
refusal to support High Court judgements ordering the removal of the
trespassing war veterans. All this caused massive cancellation of lucrative
overseas tourist bookings and destroyed whatever international credibility
and confidence Zimbabwe had left.

Well-informed members of the Zimbabwe private sector understand the
magnitude of the current post-election economic challenge, and so do some
members of government. Most, however, have grave reservations as to whether
President Mugabe, and whatever new government he chooses, will be willing
or able to take the tough decisions that would, over time, return Zimbabwe
to an upward economic trajectory. The private sector clearly wants to work
with the new government to turn things around and is in broad agreement
with the recommendations for Zimbabwe set forth in the concluding chapter
of this report.

Clearly the economy demands urgent attention. In the absence of
demonstrable progress to arrest the downward spiral and signal a turnaround
there is a very real possibility of civil unrest or worse, particularly in
the urban areas, by the end of this year. It is an open question just how
much pain the urban population is willing to endure. Urban Zimbabweans have
already demonstrated at the polls their disapproval of President Mugabe and
his party by voting in the MDC in every urban seat countrywide. Now they
want to see action on the economy and other issues.


IV. THE LAND ISSUE

Resolution, once and for all, of the question of land redistribution is
perhaps the most urgent issue facing Zimbabwe today. It is an open,
festering wound that divides the country. It is an issue with deep historic
roots and was one of the principal reasons for the liberation struggle,
which led to Zimbabwe's independence in 1980. Since 1980 land acquisition
and resettlement has continued to resonate as a political, social, and
economic issue.

At independence in 1980 the distribution of the most productive
agricultural land was skewed heavily in favour of the white farmers and
ranchers who owned or controlled most of it, leaving the generally less
desirable lands to the black population. This was demonstrably inequitable
and, in a black majority ruled country, politically unsustainable.

In the early years after independence, in an attempt to deliver on its
pledges to the black electorate, the government resettled some 50,000
families on government owned land or on land acquired from white farmers on
a "willing seller, willing buyer" basis. Unfortunately, these and later
resettlement schemes which brought the number of resettled families to
about 70,000 by the end of the 1990's were not very successful. For
numerous reasons the government was unable or unwilling to provide the
newly resettled farmers adequate supporting infrastructure, extension
services, and access to credit. Importantly, moreover, the new farmers were
not given formal title to the land they were allocated. The effect of this
was that they had no collateral to borrow against, and hence were wholly
dependent on an unresponsive government.

As a political issue during the 1980's and 1990's land percolated to the
top during election seasons, but otherwise languished. The government
continued to acquire farms, paying fair prices to the white sellers, but
very little effort was made to resettle the acquired land: it is believed
that government presently has some 3 million hectares that could be
resettled. For its part the Commercial Farmers' Union (representing the
white farmers), while recognising and accepting the need for land reform
and resettlement, generally took a "go slow" tack, protecting the
short-term interests of its members. In a sense, for most of the period
there was a de facto accommodation between government and ruling party and
the CFU. As long as ZANU (PF) was confident of its black electorate and not
feeling pressure from it on the land issue, then the party laid off the
commercial farmers whom they knew to be the driving force in the economy.
Some were cynical enough to believe that President Mugabe and the party
preferred keeping land in reserve as a future political issue rather than
forcing a definite resolution, which they could have done at any time.

 From the end of 1997 to the present, the land issue has moved from simmer
to almost continuous boil. The precipitating factors were the war veterans'
vocal demands for land and a loosening of the party's control over and
confidence in its support from the black electorate. The rhetoric
escalated, and the government designated some 1500 commercial farms for
mandatory acquisition: after many administrative and judicial appeals
between 1997 and the present, there are currently 804 designated farms.

All the acrimony over the land issue and the realisation by both the CFU
and government that it must be resolved led to a UNDP sponsored, government
chaired Land Donors' Conference in September 1998 which brought together
all the concerned parties and international donors. They reached agreement
on the principles to be followed in a two-year program to resolve the
issue, and the donors pledged contingent support. Unfortunately,
implementing the agreement proved difficult. Very little real progress was
made in the ensuing year and a half, the sense being that there was no
consensus within the government of Zimbabwe and ZANU (PF) to go forward.
The real reasons are difficult to discern, but there are indications that
the question of land tenure and title may have been a factor, as well as a
desire to keep land alive as a potent political issue.

With the February 2000 referendum defeat of the new draft constitution,
which contained a clause providing for land acquisition without
compensation unless paid for by the British, the land issue exploded.
President Mugabe and the war veterans were furious. Within a matter of days
the veterans and their followers began invading and occupying white-owned
farms. President Mugabe clearly condoned and later vigorously supported
their action going so far as to refuse to execute court orders requiring
the veterans to withdraw. Eventually some 1500 farms were occupied.

President Mugabe made the land issue the focus of his campaign to support
ZANU (PF) candidates in the 24-25 June Parliamentary elections. His message
was strident and racist, calling white farmers "the enemy", and making much
of taking back the land being the unfinished agenda of the liberation
struggle. As already noted, Mugabe's appeal had some impact on rural
voters, but was rejected by those in urban areas who were more concerned
with jobs and good governance.

Post-election, the land and the economy are the two crucial issues that the
new government must urgently address and resolve. President Mugabe and his
spokesmen have indicated they intend to continue with announced plans to
compulsorily acquire the 804 farms. The MDC, which also supports land
reform, wants to proceed at a more deliberate pace with transparency and
due process. At the time of writing, it is unclear where President Mugabe
and his new government will come down on the issue, and what will be the
next step.

The view of most knowledgeable observers is that the way forward that would
best serve the nation would be to go back to the agreement reached at the
1998 Land Donors' Conference, and proceed from there. Ideally, it should be
agreed by all concerned that from now on land should be dealt with
transparently, on a non-political basis.


V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Overall, this is a bleak assessment, and in attributing responsibility for
Zimbabwe's woes it is difficult to look beyond President Mugabe, whose
personal role in recent years has been lamentably destructive. But there
are positives as well. The brightest is that despite a horrific campaign of
violence and intimidation Zimbabwe voters courageously turned out and
firmly implanted democracy in Zimbabwe. Their example will be analysed and
written about for years to come, as it offers a hopeful example to other
democracy-bereft countries.

A second positive is that Zimbabwe is a resilient country. It has survived
a long civil war, two devastating droughts in the last sixteen years, and
years of misrule. However daunting the current situation is, the public
spirit looking forward is very positive, and optimistic that the current
enormous problems can be overcome.

Thirdly, Zimbabwe has a well-educated, hard-working labour force,
complemented by a younger generation of black managers in the private
sector who are eager to put their country back on course. They accept that
this will take a lot of effort, outside assistance, and probably three to
five years, but their confidence is infectious.

For the government of Zimbabwe, the tasks are now clear:

It must restore the rule of law. This would include enforcement of
outstanding court orders with respect to the land invasions by the
so-called war veterans, and the arrest and prosecution of those responsible
for the pre-election violence that claimed the lives of over 30 Zimbabweans
of all races.

It must resist the temptation to victimise the MDC opposition, and work
with it cooperatively to address the formidable array of problems that the
country now faces. The conciliatory words of President Mugabe's initial
post-election address to the nation, in which he called for national unity
and said that the results "bind us all, loser and winner alike", should be
followed by appropriately conciliatory action.

It must address immediately the ballooning budget deficit on the current
account, estimated at 10-14 per cent for 2000.

It must re-engage immediately with the World Bank, the IMF, and other
potential sources of outside assistance.

It must take serious steps to establish a partnership with the private
sector to address the most serious economic and social issues facing the
country. Both need the positive help of the other if Zimbabwe is to succeed.

It must address the land issue in a transparent, non-political manner that
takes into account the interests of all those involved, perhaps through the
establishment of an independent land commission.

It must withdraw the Zimbabwe armed forces deployed in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo (DRC). Quite apart from issues related to the Congo
peace process itself, Zimbabwe cannot afford this extravagance, especially
when no vital Zimbabwe interests are at stake.

Zimbabwe's immediate neighbours, who are particularly affected by the
situation in that country, should make their views known clearly, but in
ways they deem most effective - as to what courses of action they believe
Zimbabwe should pursue.

For the rest of the international community, or at least those governments
and international organisations who have some capacity to influence
outcomes by offering or withdrawing economic or other forms of support to
Zimbabwe, there should be a willingness to continue with programs that
promote democracy and human rights and respond to genuine humanitarian
needs. But beyond that, the response should be determined very directly by
how the new government chooses to act in the period ahead.

If the new government takes concrete steps to address the agenda of
recommendations described above, then the international community should
re-engage with it - on a carefully calibrated basis, strictly conditioned
to performance, not promises, by the government. No outside taxpayers
should subsidise the bailout of anything less than a responsible government.

But if the government continues along previous lines, flouting
international norms and ignoring the demonstrated will of the people as
reflected in the election results, then the international community should
stand back and let Zimbabwe feel the pain it is suffering, which is
entirely the result of its own unwise policies and actions. More
specifically, action should be taken to:

Limit or downgrade diplomatic relations: in the case of the Commonwealth by
moving to suspend membership, and in the case of the EU by considering
suspension of Zimbabwe's privileged trade access;

Isolate senior government and ZANU (PF) leaders by declining to receive
them abroad: stop visa issuance to senior officials;

Continue the near universal suspension of foreign assistance programs; and

Make it clear, both publicly and privately, that until such time as
Zimbabwe measures up to acceptable international standards on the rule of
law, human rights, and general good governance there will be no return to
"business as usual".


Harare / Brussels, 10 July 2000

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