IOL
Basildon
Peta
July 30 2008 at 06:53AM
The Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) says it is not going to budge
on its demand for real
executive power for its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in
the suspended
negotiations that are expected to resume later this week.
Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF rejected the MDC's demand in the
negotiations in
Pretoria on Monday, offering Tsvangirai only one of three
vice-presidencies
in the government. The impasse stalled the negotiations,
though President
Thabo Mbeki said on Tuesday they would resume later this
week.
Though Mbeki rarely comments on the secret talks, on Tuesday he
indirectly
confirmed the hiccup when he said the Zanu-PF and MDC negotiators
"will be
adjourning shortly for a few days because they want to go back to
Harare to
consult with their principals about the work that is being done".
Informed sources said that unless Mugabe was prepared to offer
Tsvangirai
real executive power, the talks would remain deadlocked.
The MDC
wants Tsvangirai to be at the helm of any transitional
arrangement that
might be agreed upon.
Alternatively, it wants Tsvangirai to be
executive prime minister with
Mugabe demoted to a ceremonial role, although
Zanu-PF would have an almost
equal number of cabinet ministers as the
MDC.
This article was originally published on page 2 of The
Mercury on July
30, 2008
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1827498,00.html?xid=rss-world
Wednesday, Jul. 30, 2008 By ALEX
PERRY
Power-sharing negotiations between Robert Mugabe's government
and Zimbabwe's
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have hit
their first
stumbling block: Week-long talks were adjourned after the MDC
rejected as
"insulting" the government's offer to make opposition leader
Morgan
Tsvangirai one of three vice presidents. (Tsvangirai won more votes
than
Mugabe in the first round of presidential polling on March 29; he
withdrew
from the runoff race in the face of a campaign of violence against
opposition supporters by security forces and militias loyal to Mugabe.) An
MDC source at the talks in Pretoria, South Africa, told Agence France-Presse
that the government's proposal showed a "complete lack of sincerity and the
need to really address the issues and problems Zimbabwe is facing." Zimbabwe
already has two vice presidents, both high-ranking members of Mugabe's
Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party, and both
are confined to largely ceremonial duties. "[The talks are] dead-locked,
according to the MDC guys," said Chris Maroleng, Zimbabwe expert at the
Institute of Stategic Studies in Pretoria. "The position they were offered
is untenable for them."
Breakdowns are to be expected in any
negotiations, and Zimbabwe's regime had
shown little interest in ceding
power as it unleashed a wave of violence in
the wake of the March 29 poll.
The key question now is whether Mugabe is
seriously pursuing an agreement
with the opposition, or merely going through
the motions of talking in order
to kill off any momentum for sanctions and
other forms of international
pressure. Most analysts believe Zanu-PF is
serious - or at least, seriously
feeling the heat. "There is a great deal of
international pressure on them,"
said Maroleng. "They're feeling it. And
that immense pressure does not give
them much room to maneuver. They're
engaged."
Aubrey Matshiqi of the
Johannesburg-based Center for Policy Studies said
Zanu was, at the same
time, using the talks to buy time, for two reasons: to
renew its rural
support base inside Zimbabwe, which has been eroded by the
MDC, and to
manage the succession of the 84-year-old Mugabe. "Zanu needs
this process of
negotiation for its own reasons," said Matshiqi.
Mugabe has long made a
virtue out of his vilification in the West, casting
himself as the champion
of a fight against neo-imperialism. But his regime's
blatant abuse of power
has drawn rare criticism from fellow African
leaders - a fact that appears
to have rattled the man who has ruled Zimbabwe
since overthrowing the racist
white Rhodesian government in 1980. At his
inauguration speech last month,
Mugabe unexpectedly promised talks with the
opposition on sharing power.
Last week, Mugabe met Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe's
capital, Harare, and agreed
to begin talks mediated by South Africa's
President Thabo Mbeki. Those
discussions began last week in Pretoria, with
some suggesting an agreement
was possible within two weeks.
This week's setback simply reflects how
unrealistic that prediction was,
given the imbalance in power between the
two sides - while the desire to
break out of international isolation in
order to save his collapsing economy
has brought Mugabe to the table, inside
Zimbabwe, he and his security forces
still hold all the cards. "I'd be
surprised if we have an agreement before
the end of the year," said
Maroleng. Matshiqi added he expected talks to
take "one to two years."
Still, compared to a few weeks ago, the situation
remains hopeful. "The
international pressure on Zanu must continue, and
continue to focus minds
around the need for negotiations," said Maroleng.
"Because it's working."
When was the last time you could say that about
anything in Zimbabwe?
http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=811378
S'Thembiso Msomi: Politics in Command
Published:Jul 30,
2008
Despite
the current deadlock, negotiations will continue - the antagonists
have no
choice
It should come as no surprise that the Zimbabwean negotiations
have hit a
snag.
Such is the nature of the fierce
conflict between Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF
and Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC that it
would have been a miracle for the talks
to proceed without hiccups and be
concluded within the two-week deadline.
It is difficult to know exactly
what has caused the current impasse because
the parties are forbidden, in
terms of the memorandum of understanding they
signed last week, from
commenting publicly on the talks.
But the sticking point, according to
sources close to the process, appears
to be the Zimbabwean
presidency.
Mugabe, who insists that the results of his sham presidential
run-off
election must be recognised, is prepared to offer Tsvangirai only
the
largely ceremonial post of third vice-president (the other two being
Zanu-PF
appointees).
Tsvangirai will have none of it and demands that
he be given the top job
because he won most votes in the March 29 election.
He boycotted the June 27
run-off because of state-sponsored violence against
his supporters.
As things stand, the two parties seem poles apart and
President Thabo Mbeki,
who facilitates the talks, and his team have their
work cut out trying to
find a workable solution.
But the situation is
not insurmountable and the parties could be talking to
each other again in
Pretoria in no time.
One of Mbeki's uncelebrated recent achievements was
his success in
convincing Mugabe not to appoint a new cabinet before the
talks were
concluded.
To his credit, Mugabe has kept his end of the
bargain and resisted the
temptation to follow in the footsteps of Kenyan
president Mwai Kibaki, who
showed utter disdain for the unity talks in his
own country when he
appointed half the cabinet while talks with his rival,
Raila Odinga, were
continuing.
Mugabe's hand might also have been
forced by the fact that,
constitutionally, he could not appoint the new
cabinet before the Zimbabwean
parliament was sworn in.
Be that as it
may, he is playing by the rules and that, on its own, is a
major
achievement.
As for Tsvangirai, he has demonstrated his commitment to the
talks by
withdrawing some of the preconditions he set down earlier. These
include his
demand for an African Union envoy to "assist" Mbeki in the talks
and for
political prisoners to be released before the start of the
negotiations.
The compromises made by the two leaders gave hope to the
world, but
especially to the long-suffering Zimbabwean population, that the
parties
have finally realised they have no other option but to talk to each
other.
The current deadlock should not be allowed to degenerate into a
permanent
breakdown in the mediation process.
As for the rest of the
world, the best we can do now to assist Zimbabweans
in their journey towards
national unity and economic recovery is to wait
patiently. They will work
out a deal.
They have no option.
http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=811468
The Editor, The Times Newspaper Published:Jul
30,
2008
In
SA there was no turning back - and so it will be for the
Zimbabweans
Zimbabwe's negotiators have left the table to consult their
principals,
apparently deadlocked over whether Robert Mugabe should continue
as
president.
Those close to the talks are saying that
the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai has
been offered the position of third deputy
president, the equivalent of
offering Barry Ronge a restaurant table next to
the kitchen door.
For now, there seems nowhere to go.
Zanu-PF's
negotiators have returned to Harare to brief Mugabe on the
impasse.
And Tsvangirai is somewhere in Gauteng getting the lowdown
from his
negotiators.
But all is not lost. In talks attempting to
reshape a country after a long
conflict, it is to be expected that the
parties will hit a brick wall from
time to time.
In South Africa, the
negotiations about a new constitution were frequently
bedevilled by
walkouts, threats, the withdrawal of delegations and so on.
But having
started with talks, there was no turning back for either party,
and so it
will be for the Zimbabweans.
Should Mugabe withdraw from the
negotiations, it will be the final straw
that will break the fragile back of
what credibility remains to him, and the
world will be forced to resort to
much harsher action against his regime.
This is why it is a good thing
that the world pushes ahead with efforts to
isolate Mugabe politically and
economically.
He must know that there is metal behind the criticism of
his destruction of
the democratic process in his country.
South
Africa has years of painful experience with negotiations and the
Zimbabweans
will no doubt be persuaded to return to the table.
When they do, they
must be made to craft a government that properly reflects
the will of the
Zimbabwean people, who gave more votes to Tsvangirai than
Mugabe.
Anything else will be a sham.
Reuters
Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:25pm
BST
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Britain, which backed a failed
effort to impose
U.N. sanctions on Zimbabwe, said on Tuesday the Security
Council might have
to review its position on Zimbabwe if there is no
progress in resolving the
crisis there.
British Deputy U.N.
Ambassador Karen Pierce said the Security Council had
received a "sober"
report on the situation in Zimbabwe, along with an update
on power-sharing
talks in South Africa between Zimbabwe's opposition and
negotiators for
President Robert Mugabe, which broke off on Monday.
The opposition
Movement for Democratic Change said the talks had deadlocked,
apparently
over Mugabe's insistence that he remain president.
An MDC official said
the opposition was unwilling to accept a deal that
included only the post of
vice president for its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai.
"We wish those efforts
well but it's clear that if we don't make progress
soon or don't see
progress soon in Zimbabwe, that the council will have to
come back to this
issue," Pierce told reporters after the briefing by U.N.
special envoy to
Zimbabwe, Haile Menkerios.
"He gave a sober assessment of the transition
process, of the negotiations,
of the moods in each of the parties," Pierce
said.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating in the
negotiations,
said in Pretoria that the talks were "doing very well" and
denied that they
were deadlocked.
"Mr Menkerios did not use the word
'deadlock' in his briefing. He did say
the negotiations were difficult,"
said Pierce.
The U.N. envoy also made clear to the Security Council that
the humanitarian
and economic crisis in Zimbabwe was worsening, she
added.
Tsvangirai won a first round presidential vote on March 29 but
pulled out of
the June 27 second round citing systematic violence, which the
MDC says has
killed 120 of its supporters.
Russia and China this
month vetoed a U.S.-drafted resolution, supported by
Britain, that would
have imposed an arms embargo on Zimbabwe and financial
and travel
restrictions on Mugabe and other officials of his government.
(Editing by
Chris Wilson)
http://www.zimonline.co.za/Article.aspx?ArticleId=3484
by Cuthbert Nzou
Wednesday 30 July 2008
HARARE - Zimbabwe banking and industry
chiefs have appealed to central bank
governor Gideon Gono to slash zeroes
from the country's currency when he
announces his half-year monetary policy
statement on Wednesday.
Gono had been expected to announce the statement
on Tuesday. He shifted the
announcement to today after last-minute
consultations on Monday with the
Bankers Association of Zimbabwe (BAZ) and
the Confederation of Zimbabwe
Industries (CZI) who pleaded for the removal
of zeroes from the currency to
allow a smooth payment system.
Sources
said the business leaders asked Gono to remove nine zeroes from the
local
currency, which would mean a 100 billion dollar note - Zimbabwe's
highest
note - would become $100.
The bankers and industry argued that the
country's payment system could not
handle figures above a $1 trillion, hence
the need to slash the zeroes.
"The monetary policy statement is now on
Wednesday," said a source, who is
an executive with a Harare bank. "Gono had
to factor in the appeal made by
bankers and industry. He met them on Monday
and agreed to move the date to
Wednesday after considering their
input."
The banking executive, who did not want to be named for
professional
reasons, said bankers told Gono that their software could only
handle
figures below $999 billion. They said some company accounts were now
above
$1 quintillion (a figure with 18 zeroes) and existing software could
not
read such figures making difficult to transact.
Our source was,
however, not sure on the number of zeroes Gono - who is
understood to have
wanted to remove only six zeroes from the currency while
also introducing a
new $500 billion note - would eventually decide to slash.
Gono, appointed
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor in 2003, is said to have
told bankers and
captains of industry that he wanted to consult "his
principals" on their
request for more zeroes to be removed off the currency.
Kumbirai Nhongo,
Gono's spokesperson at the central bank, confirmed
yesterday that the
monetary policy statement would be issued Wednesday.
However, he would not
be drawn to disclose further details.
"The statement will be announced on
Wednesday at 9 am at the Harare Rainbow
Towers," he said. "The governor had
last minute consultations with
stakeholders on a number of issues, which I
am not at liberty to disclose."
BAZ president John Mangudya yesterday
declined to comment on the matter,
while a CZI spokesperson confirmed that
the industry's president Callisto
Jokonya met Gono on Monday but was not at
liberty to give details.
Gono reports and gets instructions from
President Robert Mugabe and his
relationship with the 84-year-old leader has
seen him usurping the powers of
the ministry of finance.
The central
bank boss is accused in government of financing quasi operations
resulting
in galloping inflation officially said to be over 2.2 million
percent, but
estimated by independent analysts to be anything above 9
million
percent.
His long-awaited monetary policy statement is expected to
outline how he
intends to curb run-away inflation and the shortage of cash
in the country.
However, most analysts have warned that today's policy
statement would be
bereft of "sound economic solutions" owing to the central
bank's
quasi-fiscal engagements and continued money supply growth, which
they said,
was inflationary. - ZimOnline
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=1645
July 30, 2008
By Our
Correspondent
HARARE - The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU)
threatened unspecified
action against the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) if
the central bank did
not raise the daily cash withdrawal limit from
banks.
The ZCTU, the country's largest labour federation wrote to
embattled RBZ
governor Gideon Gono asking him to do away with the pegging of
the maximum
amount one is allowed to withdraw from his or her bank
account.
The RBZ imposed cash withdrawal limits some time ago in a bid to
stem
illegal foreign currency trading which the central bank blamed for
fuelling
inflation which is the highest in the world.
Currently,
banks only allow depositors to withdraw a maximum of $100 billion
a day, an
amount which can buy only half a loaf of bread. A loaf of bread
now costs
$200 billion.
But the imposition of maximum cash withdrawal limits has
failed to stem the
illegal foreign currency trade; instead it is hurting
ordinary citizens who
are failing to carry out their daily transactions
because of the stringent
limits.
In a letter addressed to Gono, the
militant labour body described the
current maximum cash withdrawal limit of
$100 billion as a joke. The ZCTU
said the amount was no longer enough to
workers to pay for transport to
work.
"Whereas the monetary
authorities pegged the maximum cash withdrawal
allowable at $100 billion and
whereas this appeared 'sufficient' in the eyes
of those who have
'unfettered' authority over those accounts, the amount is
a joke given the
reality on the ground," reads part of the letter written by
ZCTU
secretary-general Wellington Chibhebhe.
"As you may be aware, transport
alone, costs around $150 billion, on
average. How then do the monetary
authorities expect an ordinary employee to
report for duty and go back home
when he or she is allowed to only withdraw
a maximum amount of $100
billion?
"This employee is also expected to make available to his family,
bus fare
for his or her school-going children, funds for daily expenditure.
It has
also come to our attention that most employees are now spending their
productive time while queuing for cash at the banks."
The labour body
proposed that maximum cash withdrawal limits be increased to
$2.5 trillion
per day to be reviewed after every three days as the amount
would have been
made worthless by rising prices of goods.
"Our cursory calculation
reflects a figure of $2.5 trillion per day as at 21
July 2008 will be
reasonable," said Chibhebhe. "The amount has to be
reviewed after every
three days, but still using the public transport cost
as the entry
point."
The ZCTU, which has had several run-ins with President Robert
Mugabe's
government over the mismanagement of the economy and its disregard
for
workers' rights, warned Gono of unspecified action if he doesn't review
the
cash withdrawal limits.
"We trust that you take our advice
seriously and thus address the workers
and society's concerns, before they
take the law into their own hands,"
wrote Chibhebhe.
Meanwhile, Gono
is expected to yield to pressure and increase the maximum
cash withdrawal
limits when he presents his mid-year monetary policy review
statement today
(Wednesday).
Gono will make his presentation to bankers, captains of
industry and
commerce and journalists at the Harare International Conference
Centre
(HICC). The statement will be broadcast on state-run radio and
television.
Insiders at the RBZ disclosed yesterday that Gono was likely
to introduce
some currency reforms which could include the lopping off of
six zeroes from
the battered currency to help enterprises and the banking
public to cope
with complex transactions.
But critics expect nothing
extraordinary from Gono as he has failed for the
past five years to arrest
the country's stubborn inflation and right the
country's comatose economy,
now in its ninth straight year of recession.
VOA
By Patience Rusere
Washington
29 July
2008
Rates of exchange between the U.S. and Zimbabwe
dollars were being quoted in
a wide range Tuesday in Harare and Bulawayo as
currency market participants
braced for an announcement from Reserve Bank
Governor Gideon Gono this week
on redenominating the local
dollar.
Gono was expected to deliver his quarterly monetary policy
statement on
Wednesday.
Gono was quoted by the state-controlled
Sunday Mail newspaper early this
week as saying he would take steps to
relieve cash shortages, including
removing "more zeros" from notes which now
include denominations of up to
Z$100 billion.
This could mean
Zimbabweans will have to surrender expiring banknotes as
they did in such an
operation in August 2006 which inflicted financial
losses on many ordinary
people.
Those holding large amounts of the outstanding currency,
especially parallel
market dealers, might then rush for the exit, cheapening
the local currency
against hard currencies.
U.S. dollars were
most sought in Harare where the exchange rate reached
Z$800 billion to the
greenback. In Bulawayo, the second largest city, the
price for one U.S.
dollar ranged from Z$110 billion to $500 billion in
street trading of
physical notes.
Black market money changers meanwhile said they suspect
their biggest
customers of being runners for the central bank, saying such
participants at
times flood the market with large amounts of cash, driving
up the local
currency price for the U.S. currency.
One Harare-based
black-market foreign exchange dealer, requesting anonymity,
told reporter
Patience Rusere of VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe that he and
other traders
have handled new, uncirculated bank notes and even bills still
sealed in RBZ
packets.
VOA
By Carole Gombakomba
Washington
29 July
2008
Poverty is on the rise in Zimbabwe and poor governance is
the root cause -
an analysis which emerged in a briefing on Capitol Hill
this week by the
CATO Institute, a libertarian think
tank.
Zimbabwean market-based analyst Rejoice Ngwenya said
hyperinflation, now
estimated by some to be running at 10 million percent,
is driving most
Zimbabweans beneath the poverty line.
CATO Africa
Analyst Marian Tupy dismissed the Zimbabwean government's
contention that
Western sanctions have brought about the economic collapse.
Following
the Hill briefing, Ngwenya and Tupy joined reporter Carole
Gombakomba of
VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe to continue the discussion,
explaining that the
solution to the crisis lies with Zimbabweans as there is
only so much the
international community can do.
Financial Times
By Tom
Burgis in Johannesburg and Tony Hawkins in Harare
Published: July 28 2008
03:00 | Last updated: July 28 2008 03:00
Zimbabwe's economy is
unravelling at such a pace that the central bank is
set to slash yet more
zeroes from the country's increasingly worthless
currency.
State
media yesterday quoted Gideon Gono, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
governor
and one of the members of the ruling elite targeted by fresh
western
sanctions last week, as saying he would extend a currency policy
that has so
far failed to stem hyperinflation.
"This time, we will make sure that
those zeroes that would come knocking on
the governor's window will not
return," Mr Gono was quoted as saying on
Saturday in a speech to
farmers.
Independent estimates put Zimbabwe's inflation rate well above
the official
2.2m per cent, prompting the introduction last week of a 100bn
Zimbabwean
dollar note. Even state media reported Mr Gono's comments "drew
laughter"
from his audience.
The governor is expected to chop three
or six zeroes from the currency,
following a three-zero cut in
2006.
Beside the inflationary zeroes haunting Mr Gono, analysts and some
opposition politicians say the crumbling economy in what was once a regional
bread basket is perhaps the single greatest factor that might force Robert
Mugabe, president, into relaxing his grip on power.
Mr Mugabe's
negotiators have begun a fortnight of power-sharing talks in
South Africa
with leading members of the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change,
following the ageing ruler's widely discredited victory as the sole
candidate in presidential polls last month.
United Nations agencies
estimate a failed crop and a shortfall of nearly 50
per cent in maize
imports have left 2m people in immediate need of
assistance. The figure is
expected to rise to 5m people - well over half of
the population - early
next year.
Mr Gono also indicated he will raise the daily limit on the
amount
Zimbabweans are permitted to withdraw from their bank
accounts.
Zimbabwean trade unions wrote an open letter to the central
bank governor
last week describing the current cap of Z$100bn as "a joke"
with transport
to and from banks alone generally costing on average
Z$150bn.
As increasingly desperate Zimbabweans flout a ban on
transactions in US
dollars, the central bank's difficulties have been
compounded by the
withdrawal of a German company that used to print its bank
notes.
The government blames the economic strife on "illegal" sanctions,
condemning
opponents who point to violence land seizures that have
contributed to a
drastic fall in agricultural output.
IOL
Zelda
Venter
July 30 2008 at 06:59AM
In what is regarded as
a landmark case for South African farmers and
other citizens with business
interests in Zimbabwe the Pretoria High Court
on Tuesday ruled in favour of
a Bothaville farmer who lost his farms and
business in that
country.
Judge Bill Prinsloo ruled that Crawford von Abo had the
right to
diplomatic protection from the South African government regarding
the
violation of his rights by the government of Zimbabwe.
Prinsloo ruled that the government should, within 60 days take all
necessary
steps to have Von Abo's violation of his rights remedied and to
report back
to court regarding the steps it had taken.
The 75-year-old Von Abo
has been struggling for more than six years
with the South African
government to act against Zimbabwe's confiscation of
land belonging to South
Africans.
His pleas fell on deaf ears and his counsel earlier told
the court
that Von Abo's endeavours to receive help from the government were
like "the
Yellow Brick Road - the road to nowhere".
Von Abo
earlier told the court that in 1997 the Zimbabwean government
violated his
rights by destroying his property interests in a number of
farms in that
country as part of its policy to expropriate white-owned
farms.
He was not paid any compensation.
Prinsloo said he regretted to say
that "it is difficult to resist the
conclusion that the respondents
(government) were simply stringing the
applicant along and never had any
serious intention to afford him proper
protection".
"Their
feeble efforts, if any, amounted to little more than quiet
acquiescence in
the conduct of their Zimbabwean counterparts and their 'war
veteran' thugs,"
Prinsloo said.
He added that Von Abo had demonstrated that his
rightful property in
Zimbabwe was unlawfully expropriated under
international law and that he
wasn't compensated for it.
Prinsloo said Von Abo made futile efforts to protect his interests by
litigating against the Zimbabwean government in that country.
He said given the almost absolute disregard the government there
showed for
orders of its own courts, particularly regarding the
expropriation, no more
remedies were available for him.
He added that the SA government
dealt with the Von Abo matter in bad
faith and irrationally.
"For six years or more, in the face of a stream of urgent requests -
they
(government) did absolutely nothing to bring about relief to the
applicant
and hundreds of other white commercial farmers in the same
position.
"Their 'assistance' was limited to empty
promises."
"They exhibited neither the will nor the ability to do
anything
constructive to bring their northern neighbour to
book."
Prinsloo continued: "They paid no regard, of any
consequence, to the
plight of valuable citizens such as the applicant with a
50-year track
record in Zimbabwe and other hard-working white commercial
farmers making a
substantial contribution to the GDP in Zimbabwe and
providing thousands of
people with work in that country."
Prinsloo said he had thus concluded that Von Abo qualified for
diplomatic
protection.
"This may involve effective diplomatic pressure on the
Zimbabwean
government to restore the properties to the applicant and his
companies and
to pay compensation for losses and damages."
Prinsloo, as part of his ruling, indefinitely postponed Von Abo's
claim for
damages against government regarding the farms and business
interests he had
lost in Zimbabwe.
In this regard, Von Abo during the trial
indicated that the total
conservative damages pertaining to the six farms,
including implements and
other assets he had lost, amounted to about
R60-million.
Von Abo's lawyer Ernst Penzhorn called his client
directly following
the verdict to give him the news.
Penzhorn
said Van Abo "is grateful that he could have turned to a
court in his own
country to protect his rights. This is comforting if one
looks at how he was
treated with no sympathy by members of the executive".
Penzhorn
said they would now have to approach the constitutional court
to confirm
Prinsloo's judgment.
He said he believed yesterday's judgment would
open the door for many
South Africans who had lost all their business
interests in Zimbabwe.
Regarding the damages claim he said they
will first see what the
response of government is before they act further on
the claim.
This article was originally published on page 1 of
Pretoria News on
July 30, 2008
http://www.radiovop.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3395&Itemid=755
HARARE, July 30 2008 - There is chaos in
Bulawayo's Emganwini suburb
after war veterans occupied Bulawayo city
council land and redistributed it
to "landless people".
Scores of people, who claim to be war veterans and members of the
ruling
ZANU PF party have built homes in the outskirts of Bulawayo along
Plumtree
Road just adjacent to Emgamwini suburb after being allocated land
by a
female war veteran who claims to have been given a go ahead by big
party
chiefs in Harare.
The settlers have already started to build
their homesteads and others
said they would venture into market
gardening.
"We were so excited to be given land because we felt
we were left out
in the initial land reform exercise. It's a right step
towards the total
empowerment drive," he said.
However, the
Bulawayo ZANU PF province and Bulawayo governor Cain
Mathema have distanced
themselves from settlers. Mathema accused the woman
in charge of the
settlement as trying to cause chaos in Bulawayo.
"She is trying
to cause chaos in Bulawayo. We don't want people who
come from their homes
in Harare and Mashonaland to come here and cause
disturbances. Our people
are peace loving and they know that land belongs to
council. The law will
take its cause very soon," said Mathema.
SABC
July 30,
2008, 05:00
The torture and murder of Zimbabweans opposed to the regime
of President
Robert Mugabe is jeopardising security in the Southern African
region. This
is the view of the non-governmental organisation (NGO),
Solidarity Peace
Trust which has just released a report into human rights
violations taking
place in Zimbabwe.
The dossier is the first
comprehensive account of what's believed to be
government-sponsored violence
in that country during and after the March 29,
2008 elections. Activist
Sharri Eppel says youth militia and war veterans
are believed to be behind
the attacks. "We've seen meticulous kinds of
torture. People having their
genitals ripped off with barbed wire, people
having needles, threaded
repeatedly through their hands."
Eppel further stated that in other
instances people would have their hands
and feet smashed repeatedly. People
have been abducted, killed and then
their bodies have turned up, sometimes
weeks later.
Meanwhile, Britain says the Security Council might have to
review its
position on Zimbabwe if there is no progress in resolving the
crisis there.
Britain, which backed a failed effort to impose United Nations
(UN)
sanctions on Zimbabwe, was reacting to the breaking off of
power-sharing
talks on Monday. - Additional reporting by Reuters
http://www.radiovop.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3394&Itemid=171
HARARE, July 30 2008 - The Reserve Bank of
Zimbabwe (RBZ) has ordered
the Harare Polytechnic Business department to
postpone the end of term
examinations to allow for the students to take part
in the BACOSSI census
program.
The RBZ is sending out
census teams to evaluate the needs of different
communities around the
country and the students have fallen victim to the
shortages on manpower at
the central bank. Sources from the RBZ said the
basic food hampers would be
sold to the public as soon as the census is
completed and in communities
across the country.
A group of students who spoke on condition
of anonymity said officials
from the RBZ approached the business department
and ordered for the
postponement of exams.
Zimbabwe
National Students' Union president Clever Bere on Tuesday
confirmed the
development saying the programme was not only affecting
students from the
Harare Polytechnic but from colleges doted around the
country.
"It's very unfortunate that our government no
longer values education
as a weapon for development. It is the same
government again that has
reduced the students into destitutes and they are
willing to get money from
anyone, even the devil," said
Bere.
"We were supposed to have started our exams this week but
we have been
told that we have to take part in the BACOSSI census. Our
schooling calendar
has definitely been affected by the move," said one
student who said has
been assigned to work in Chitungwiza for
RBZ.
The mid year exams are very important and form part of the
course
work. Other students however said although the programme had
disrupted their
calendar it came in handy for many since they have been
promised a lot of
money in return.
"I am told that there
will be a lot of money for our work especially
for those assigned to work in
the rural areas. The money will be very
helpful to us since we no longer get
payouts from the government," said one
student.
Bulawayo
province residents' governor Cain Mathema was quoted on
national radio
urging people to "corporate with the BACOSSI teams" as that
information will
be used in the distribution of the cheap commodities which
were sourced
through the RBZ. Efforts to get a comment for the RBZ proved
fruitless.
http://www.inthenews.co.uk
Wednesday, 30 Jul 2008 00:01
Two of
Zimbabwe's leading trade unionists will appear in court later
today.
Lovemore Matombo and Wellington Chibebe, the president and
secretary general
of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, are charged with
"spreading
falsehoods prejudicial to the state".
They were arrested
on May 8th for speaking out against state-sponsored
violence in
Zimbabwe.
The Movement for Democratic Change, Zimbabwe's main opposition
party, has
suffered widely documented persecution from supporters of
president Robert
Mugabe during the presidential election runoff
campaign.
Its candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, was forced to pull out to end
the violence
which Mr Matombo and Mr Chibebe spoke out against at
Dzivarasekwa Stadium on
May 1st.
The pair was also charged with
"inciting the public to rise against the
government". After eventually
receiving bail they were banned from
addressing political or public
gatherings.
The Trades Union Congress is leading British efforts to lobby
Mr Mugabe's
government in Harare and is urging unionists to send a template
letter to
Zimbabwe's justice minister on the issue.
It demands that
"all charges are dropped with immediate effect" and accuses
the government
of clearly breaching free speech and freedom to associate
rights.
The
International Labour Organisation's committee on the application of
standards recently expressed its concerns over the surge in trade union and
human rights violations, the letter points out.
http://www.africanpath.com/p_blogEntry.cfm?blogEntryID=5576
July 29, 2008 10:02
AM
By Scott A. Morgan, Confused Eagle
It is believed that dozens
of MDC supporters were tortured and murdered
before the June 29 presidential
run-off election in Zimbabwe. Others were
driven from their homes as the
politically motivated violence reached a
crescendo. The results were what
some had wanted - Robert Mugabe was
"reelected" president of
Zimbabwe.
The past few weeks showed more lights into how the campaign of
violence was
orchestrated. Two divergent sources reported that the Junta
that was running
Zimbabwe between the dates of the elections hired some
outside help to
orchestrate the violence. They went to a source that has had
success in the
past, but two different nations. They went to the Force
Democratic de
Liberation du Rwanda (Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda):
FDLR. This
group has a history that only a dictator could love.
First
of all, who are the FDLR?
They were the perpetrators of the worst case of
genocide since the end of
the Second World War. In a period of several weeks
and estimated 800,000
people were murdered in the presence of United Nation
Peace keepers. The
FDLR were driven out of the country by forces led by the
current President
Paul Kagame of Rwanda. They were maintaining bases in the
eastern Democratic
Republic of Congo.
The activities of the FDLR in
Zimbabwe did not come as surprise to many. A
Senior leader of the FDLR,
Protais Mpiranya, who was the former Commander of
the Rwandan Presidential
Guards is currently under the protection of the
Zimbabwean government.
Forces under his direct command are believed to have
sexually assaulted and
murdered then Prime Minister Agathe Uwilingiyimana
and 10 Belgian
Paratroopers that had orders to protect her.
The actions of the JOC
(Joint Operations Command) and ZANU-PF that were
taken to ensure that they
won the elections seem to follow some of the
strategies the FDLR used in
Rwanda. According to some eyewitness reports,
the Rwandan exiles have been
leaving refugee camps to join in the carnage.
According to press reports,
the Rwandans have been even more vicious in
their attacks than ZANU-PF
supporters and security forces.
This brings up an interesting situation.
When Russia and China vetoed the
resolution at the United Nations Security
Council, one of the reasons given
was that the situation within Zimbabwe had
no international implications.
But the government of Botswana is dealing
with hundreds of Zimbabwean
refugees who fled their country as result of
economic hardship and political
violence. Moscow and Beijing should
understand that the crisis in Zimbabwe
has international implications. Could
this be the last straw that breaks the
camel's back with the "mediation"
efforts of president Mbeki of South
Africa?
At the very least, this
has been indicative of what depths Robert Mugabe
would take to ensure that
he would remain in power. Also it shows to what
steps the security forces
were willing to take to ensure that Morgan
Tsvangari would not become
president of Zimbabwe which, according to various
sources, was what he did
on March 29.
Now a Government of National Unity has been proposed for
Zimbabwe. With the
actions of the security forces over the last few months
it is not a feasible
idea in the eyes of many people. As long as the FDLR
are active in Zimbabwe
no one is safe in the country.
http://www.zimonline.co.za/Article.aspx?ArticleId=3485
by Mutumwa Mawere Wednesday 30
July 2008
OPINION: On Friday, July 25 2008, while
the representatives of
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU PF
party and the opposition
were in the midst of negotiations facilitated by
South African President
Mbeki, United States President George Bush signed an
executive order
(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/07/20080725-5.html)
to expand
sanctions against individuals and organisations in Zimbabwe
associated with
what he calls the "illegitimate" regime of
Mugabe.
After 28 years of independence, a precedent that many never
thought
possible in post-colonial Zimbabwe has been set whereby the outcome
of an
electoral process does not count for much other than to reduce the
will of
the people to a negotiating room with six individuals tasked with
making
decisions for about 13 million citizens.
The role of the
international community in promoting or undermining
democracy in Zimbabwe
will continue to occupy the minds of many people not
only in Zimbabwe but
throughout the world.
After 28 years of independence, Zimbabwe's
standing in the world has
significantly diminished under the watch of
Mugabe.
By global standards, Zimbabwe is too insignificant to
attract the
attention of the world and yet its crisis continues to occupy
the minds of
not only the G-8 countries but the entire UN
system.
This unprecedented spotlight on Zimbabwe has assisted
Mugabe in making
the case that the political and economic crisis is a direct
result of the
land dispossession of white Zimbabweans and the threat of the
so-called 100
percent black economic empowerment thrust.
What
is the causal link between the targeted sanctions and the
economic meltdown
in Zimbabwe? Is it correct to conclude that were it not
for the imposition
of economic sanctions, the prospects of the economy would
be brighter? Would
an agreement on the political questions between the
negotiating parties be
sufficient to incentivise the West to lift sanctions?
In announcing
the new raft of sanctions, Bush said that the action was
meant to send a
strong message that the US will not permit individuals
closely linked to
Mugabe to operate in its financial markets.
A view shared by many
and confirmed by Mugabe during the elections is
that the will of the people
of Zimbabwe does not matter and the calls by the
international community for
the restoration of the rule of law and respect
for property rights can be
ignored with no consequences.
The March 29 elections were held in
an atmosphere that cannot be
regarded as free and fair and yet the message
from the people was that they
wanted a change of direction and
leadership.
While it can be legitimately argued that the results of
the March
election largely reflected the will of the people, it cannot be
denied that
the outcome could have been substantially different in favour of
the
opposition had the state been under the control of a neutral
person.
The March presidential election did not produce a
conclusive outcome,
leading to the controversial run-off election whose
timing and legality will
continue to occupy legal and political minds for
years to come.
However, the vote that has been condemned by the
West and boycotted by
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai produced an
outcome that now gives
Mugabe a locus standi in SADC-facilitated
negotiations that have now been
elevated to party talks rather than focusing
solely on the presidential
question.
By putting the screws on
Tsvangirai and using the state machinery to
deny him of any media, financial
and logistical support, the outcome of the
run-off was as predictable as the
agenda for the SADC-mediated talks.
What does the EU and US
governments know about the current talks that
are not in the public domain?
Why would they impose sanctions when the talks
seem to be on track? What is
it about Mugabe that makes the West suspicious
of the outcome?
If the sanctions are targeted at stopping politically motivated
violence,
why would they take the form of assets freeze? What is so special
about the
17 enterprises that have now been included in the targeted list?
One of the principal reasons that motivated Tsvangirai to withdraw
from the
run-off elections was the violence that polluted the electoral
atmosphere
and environment.
The mere fact that the new sanctions are linked to
the violence issue
suggests that the West's agenda is no more than trying to
assist helpless
Zimbabweans against state-sponsored violence.
However, it is not at all clear how targeted financial sanctions will
incentivise the state to stop using violence and intimidation as a weapon to
whip people into line.
In response to the humiliation of March,
Mugabe whose intelligence
must have told him about the causal link between
the activities of the NGOs
and the electoral success of the MDC, stopped
suspected NGOs from being
involved in providing humanitarian assistance to
the vulnerable people of
Zimbabwe.
What the EU and US
governments are not saying is that they have come
to the inescapable
conclusion that Mugabe represents values, principles and
morality that is
inimical to the West's shared values.
Unless the talks can produce
an outcome that will remove Mugabe, it is
clear that no change will take
place in the approach of the West to the
Zimbabwean crisis.
By
giving an ambiguous position, as quoted below, on what is at stake
in the
current Zimbabwean crisis, Bush is setting himself up to an
embarrassing and
untenable position in the event that Tsvangirai agrees to
serve in Mugabe's
cabinet:
"Should ongoing talks in South Africa between Mugabe's
regime and the
Movement of Democratic Change result in a new government that
reflects the
will of the Zimbabwean people, the United States stands ready
to provide a
substantial assistance package, development aid, and
normalization with
international financial institutions."
What
precisely is meant by the will of the Zimbabwean people? Should
the
Zimbabwean people through the three negotiating parties agree to form a
government of national unity (GNU) just like South Africa's former apartheid
government agreed with the African National Congress (ANC) and others to an
interim constitution providing for a GNU, what would be the position of the
EU and the US? Should sanctions not automatically be lifted?
How do targeted sanctions assist the cause of freedom for the
suffering
Zimbabwean masses? It is evident that the West has been pushed
into a corner
from which it is difficult to argue that were it not for the
onslaught on
white property rights by the Mugabe regime, the West would not
have a case
to stand on.
Surely, Africa has many examples of violent elections
that have not
produced the same outrage from the West leading many to
question the motives
behind the sanctions thrust.
Will the
sanctions produce the desired outcomes? What really are the
outcomes
sought?
It should be sufficient for the West to make the case that
the views
held by Mugabe about the role of the state in nation building are
offensive
to their own values and principles without seeking to hide behind
the
violence issue that has been taken up by Tsvangirai in the face of
brutal
attacks by a partisan state.
To what extent are the
views held by Mugabe different from those held
by the labour movement from
whose womb Tsvangirai emerged?
At the core of the land reform
programme is a belief, strongly held by
Mugabe and his colleagues, that it
is an appropriate role of the state to
become an active participant in
resource allocation and productive
activities.
The contestation
for political power is really between the labour
movement and intellectuals
with the business community taking the role of
spectators.
The
business community is obviously silent because the risks inherent
in
challenging the political elites in government and the opposition are too
significant.
Having been one of the most significant black
victims of undemocratic
processes using state institutions, I find myself
with no choice but to
support the view that unless the rule of law is
restored and property rights
are respected, the West is justified in
maintaining pressure on the
negotiators to focus on what the country
requires to move forward.
On Friday, the US Department of the
Treasury's Office of Foreign
Assets Control (OFAC) designated seventeen
entities, including Zimre
Holdings Limited, an investment and reinsurance
entity that was mine until
the promulgation of decrees and laws that allowed
Mugabe's government to
expropriate my shareholding in the company with no
compensation.
I challenged the actions of the government of
Zimbabwe in the
Zimbabwean courts and regrettably Justice Rita Makarau ruled
that a
specified person has no constitutional right to challenge the state
from
enjoying the benefits of its own actions.
As at September
6 2004 when a state appointed administrator took
control of all my
Zimbabwean companies as a consequence of the operation of
the State Indebted
Insolvent Companies Act, I was the controlling
shareholder of Zimre with a
combined stake of 46.6 percent.
In January 2005, Zimre proceeded to
hold a rights issue whose effect
was to allow the government to follow the
rights of my companies resulting
in the government becoming the largest
shareholder.
I do hope that by targeting Zimre, a window exists to
expose the true
nature of the operations of the government of Zimbabwe in
undermining the
rule of law. - ZimOnline
http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10310
August
2008 |
Robert Mugabe stole the Zimbabwean election with violence and
intimidation.
But Morgan Tsvangirai unwittingly helped him. Stephen Chan
explains how an
opposition leader lost his bearings
Stephen
Chan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stephen
Chan is the author of Robert Mugabe: A Life of Power and Violence
(IB
Tauris)
I left Zimbabwe the day after Robert Mugabe was reinaugurated as
president.
Watching on state television as the old man swore fealty to the
country he
has ruined, I packed my bag for the long haul back to London. It
is winter
now in Zimbabwe, meaning the days are like an English spring in
their
lightness and warmth, and the nights plunge to just a few degrees
above
zero. Everyone I talk to affects a jaded determination to survive, but
there
will be cold nights ahead.
I have seen many Zimbabwean
elections. My first was in 1980 when, as a
member of the Commonwealth
observer group, I helped monitor the transition
to independence and Mugabe's
first electoral triumph. I have attended almost
all campaigns or elections
since, including all of this year's polls-the
March elections and the June
presidential runoffs. Over the years I have
seen-close up-the hopes of the
majority of Zimbabweans dashed by a corrupt
and vicious oligarchy which
cloaks itself in the rhetoric of
anti-colonialism and
self-determination.
The situation is all the more tragic because this
year the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) handed Mugabe
victory on a plate-the
result of a miscalculation, a loss of nerve or both
by its leader, Morgan
Tsvangirai. This failure has strengthened Mugabe's
hand in the negotiations
over a national unity government now taking place,
after the "memorandum of
understanding" signed by Mugabe and Tsvangirai on
21st July. The memorandum
is a reason for cautious optimism-nevertheless,
for the MDC the election was
a bitter defeat; for Tsvangirai a personal
tragedy.
Mugabe was never going to surrender the presidency without a
dirty fight.
Zanu-PF youth gangs and militias were told not to kill too
many, but to dish
out exemplary violence wherever they went. These beatings
and torture
sessions were interspersed with the constant threat of something
even more
violent to come. Entire villages and outlying city suburbs were
issued with
death threats. I have friends who were taken from Epworth, one
of the
poorest areas of Harare, to a remote location and held in complete
silence
for three days. The only thing they were told came at the start of
the
ordeal: "We could kill you and no one would even find your bodies."
After
sweating out days of fear and uncertainty, the captives became
compliant and
their abductors knew that Zanu-PF had nothing to fear from
them.
Meanwhile, the anti-Mugabe forces were in chaos. The international
community
was divided in its tactics. The western nations-led by the British
and the
Americans-condemned loudly and pressed for sanctions, much to the
discomfort
of Zimbabwe's neighbours, who feared it might help push the
country closer
to civil war. South Africa, Botswana and Zambia have already
absorbed large
economic costs from the Zimbabwean meltdown and they feared
that the
collapse of Mugabe's dictatorship would lead to anarchy and further
spillover into neighbouring countries. Moreover, western rhetoric didn't
play well with the average Zimbabwean. Seen from the Harare street, Gordon
Brown's performance in the House of Commons after the runoff election
results, announcing a plan to push for new sanctions, was exactly what was
not needed. It was a continuation of the Blair era, when foreign policy
towards Africa could be simultaneously well-meant and supercilious. Few in
Harare have forgotten Clare Short's infamous letter-written during the first
days of the Blair administration-in which the then development secretary
pointed to her own Irish "colonial victim" status and repudiated a British
undertaking to fund land nationalisation: an act that helped create the
climate that later led to violent (and uncompensated) land seizures.
Meanwhile, US attempts to advise the MDC on election tactics had, as we
shall see, disastrous consequences.
***
If the
foreigners were at sixes and sevens, the domestic opposition was
little
better. The MDC went into the elections still split from the
divisions of
late 2005 and early 2006, when a breakaway faction, led by
Arthur Mutambara
with strategic direction from Welshman Ncube, established a
power base in
western Zimbabwe and among many of the MDC's intellectual
supporters. The
split occurred amid accusations that Tsvangirai was no
longer behaving
democratically, taking decisions unilaterally which should
have received the
approval of the party's executive committee. Tsvangirai
has always been
impatient of process. Perhaps he came to believe he was the
MDC. This was
enough to fracture the MDC's brittle unity-and even the
prospect of
electoral victory was insufficient to repair it.
The two sides did try to
heal their divisions, but Tsvangirai was unwilling
to withdraw from
contesting enough seats in Mutambara's western stronghold
to reunite the
party. Almost all Zimbabwean commentators agree that this was
a fatal
misjudgement on Tsvangirai's part. Had the MDC entered the first
presidential round in lockstep with Mutambara, Tsvangirai might have got the
crucial extra votes to win the presidency outright. As it was, Mutambara
unselfishly refrained from running for president himself, giving Tsvangirai
a clear run (although he did endorse a third-party candidate, Simba Makoni).
But the voting patterns from the western constituencies show that the damage
had been done. Mutambara's people felt slighted and Mugabe did much better
than expected in the west.
Tsvangirai has always been a hit-and-miss
politician-capable of strokes of
genius but also prone to periods of wayward
and ineffectual leadership. Born
in 1952, Tsvangirai is the son of a rural
carpenter-a member of the black
lower middle class and a member of the same
majority Shona ethnic group as
Mugabe. Tsvangirai did not complete his
education but found work as a nickel
miner in the mid-1970s. He became
politically active through his union
affiliation, where he ascended the
ladder, gaining a reputation as an
effective negotiator, and eventually
became the head of the national union
movement in 1988. Originally an
enthusiastic supporter of Zanu-PF, he became
disillusioned after Mugabe's
first big authoritarian crackdown in Harare in
1991. The rift deepened in
the mid-1990s as Tsvangirai clashed with the
government over the impact on
his members of an IMF structural adjustment
programme that crimped the
economy.
Tsvangirai has always been a man of action and used to like
teasing
Zimbabwean intellectuals for thinking too much. He can be ruthless,
as in
the late 1990s when the MDC arose from, then split with, the National
Constitutional Assembly (NCA), just when that body was becoming the largest
civil society group Zimbabwe had ever known. Many in the NCA took a long
time to forgive him, but the secession of the MDC decisively tilted the
struggle against Mugabe and Zanu-PF into the realm of party politics, rather
than grassroots action. Yet Tsvangirai's flashes of ruthless decisiveness
can be accompanied by protracted hesitation. The MDC has often seemed
rudderless. In fact, the captain is at the tiller but not steering the
ship.
I admire Tsvangirai. I wrote a book about him, based on many hours
of
face-to-face interviews, which was distributed underground in Zimbabwe to
help the MDC's 2005 campaign. I attended those elections and acknowledged
the book was mine. I was and am prepared to stand up for Tsvangirai. But I
also want to say that he screwed up.
Tsvangirai should have remained
inside Zimbabwe for longer periods-
especially between this year's first and
second polls. While he and his
deputy Tendai Biti courted international
support, they left their party
leaderless. The split in the MDC had left
Tsvangirai's party as the larger
of two factions, but Mutambara and Ncube
had most of the politically astute
thinkers in their group. Tsvangirai
relied increasingly on advice from Biti,
and with both of them travelling
outside Zimbabwe, there was no second tier
to hold the MDC together and give
party workers strategic direction. There
was also an undercurrent of
suspicion, fanned by Zanu-PF, that Tsvangirai
had lost his nerve and was
putting his personal safety above the welfare of
his people. The loss of MDC
morale was clear.
Tsvangirai's main source of advice was the US embassy
in Harare, especially
after Mugabe's government arrested Biti on treason
charges and imprisoned
him two weeks before the runoff. The deliberate
effect of the arrest was to
deprive Tsvangirai of local guidance during the
crucial closing stages of
the campaign. This became a test of nerve: Zanu-PF
wanted to break
Tsvangirai's will by isolating him and threatening him
physically. The US
embassy sought to fill the gap, and was complicit in
Tsvangirai's decisions
to withdraw from the elections and seek refuge in the
Dutch embassy. The
plan was to hand Mugabe a hollow victory which the west
could then attack.
The US analysis was that the polls had already been fixed
so a Tsvangirai
victory was impossible. Participation would only legitimise
a brazen
"steal." The idea was also to create an image of such great
intimidation
that even a leader of the opposition could find safety from
assassination
only on diplomatic soil.
I want also to say
unequivocally that the Americans screwed up. When
Tsvangirai withdrew,
Zanu-PF could hardly believe their luck. They were
beginning to realise they
were on the verge of overplaying their only hand,
that of violence. Then,
out of the blue, Tsvangirai solved all their
problems for
them.
Contrary to western information, Tsvangirai's consultation of his
own party
members, who did indeed protest they didn't want to die for
nothing, was
brief and sketchy. When the "consultation" took place, there
was only a week
to go before the runoff poll. At that point, the worst was
probably over.
Zanu-PF was under pressure to reduce the violence in the face
of external
African criticism. The party would have still sought to rig the
count, but
the result would have been at least more contestable and, at
best,
surprising.
Thabo Mbeki was reluctant to push too hard on
Zimbabwe not just because of
his complex attachment to Mugabe, but also
because he never believed
Tsvangirai would make an effective leader. This is
unfair, as Tsvangirai has
clearly matured, both politically and morally. He
has taken almost all that
Mugabe could throw at him. It may be, however,
that Mugabe and Zanu-PF
finally found the cracks in a very brave man, and
levered them open.
This will all be debated for a long time. But
Tsvangirai took the
assassination rumours seriously enough to take his
family into exile. Eleven
years ago, he came within inches of being killed
as government agents tried
to push him out of a tenth-floor window high
above Harare. He has been on
trial for his life on treason charges. This
time, there almost certainly was
a plan to kill him. It is unlikely to have
been activated while the world's
attention was focused on Zimbabwe. In that
gaze, he was probably safe, but
the weeks of drip-feed rumours finally did
their work.
The net effect is that Tsvangirai is a diminished leader,
even within the
MDC. He is universally regarded as courageous; even his
Zanu-PF foes give
him that. But a huge strand of Zanu-PF propaganda and
covert action has been
devoted to probing and exploiting his weak points.
Few people would not have
stumbled.
Following the disappointments of
recent weeks, Tsvangirai needs to rally his
battered forces. The split in
the MDC must be more fully healed and all its
leaders brought back into the
tent if the party is not to be outmanoeuvred
again. But Tsvangirai may no
longer have the prestige to cement a
reconciliation.
The election has
rammed home his dependence on colleagues, even those who
were rivals, such
as Ncube and Biti. Ncube has the feel for both long-range
strategy and
policy. A professor of law, he has a strong sense of procedure
and was one
of the first to become alienated by Tsvangirai's liberties with
the way the
MDC operated. Biti, who remained with Tsvangirai, is also a
lawyer and was
long prominent in the fight for civil liberties and political
freedom. But
Biti's thinking is more like that of a barrister-brief by
brief. He is a
tactician to Ncube's strategist, and both will be needed in
any new unity
government. The exact form of such a government is the next
chapter in the
story.
***
I am sitting in the Oliver Tambo International
Airport in Johannesburg, and
can feel the tension seep out of my pores. I
left Harare awash with
speculation, habitual cynicism competing with bursts
of hope. I have left
behind many desperate people. The biggest difficulty is
not the incredible
inflation-where a Z$50bn note will buy just two cups of
coffee (at time of
going to press this is now Z$200bn)-or even the recurrent
shortages of food,
electricity and treated water. It is the lack of medical
supplies. People
dying of Aids and cancer will be given codeine as an
analgesic in the doses
we would take for headaches. There are many unpretty
endings to life in
Zimbabwe, not all at the hands of government party thugs.
Many more will die
if sanctions are stepped up.
As for the long-term
result, the gossip of the African observers at the
airport as they flew out
of Harare seems about right. Having won the
election, Mugabe will accept
that it was his swan song. The observers
confidently believe the
negotiations towards a unity government will
succeed. Sure, there will be a
Zanu-PF president, though the identity of any
long-term incumbent will be
decided only after a power struggle among
several unsavoury characters.
There will have to be a constitutional
amendment to create a Kenyan-style
prime minister-this might be Tsvangirai's
prize. The negotiations will
determine how much power the premier holds
versus the presidency. Zimbabwe
will recover slowly, again like Kenya, as a
land of promise but one riven
with deep scars and huge inequalities.
A few days later, the African
Union's Egyptian summit has finished and
Mugabe is flying home. Zambia and
Botswana were highly critical of his
"victory." They were joined by Kenya,
Nigeria and Senegal. But only one plan
remains on the table for a
post-Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe-and that is the
South African plan for a
unity government.
Mugabe was on his best grandstanding form in Egypt. He
gave a long,
impassioned and, apparently, moving piece of oratory,
discoursing on the
long historical cycle that would one day vindicate his
nationalist mission.
But his subsequent willingness to enter into talks with
Tsvangirai shows
that even he must know that the time has passed when
appeals to
anti-colonial solidarity could rally the African Union, even if
his
sentiments struck residual heartstrings. His lieutenants must also know
that, at the age of 84, he is of little further use to them. They are all in
their 60s and want a secure future for themselves as well as the fruits of
their financial looting. It is these insiders-four top generals; Emerson
Mnangagwa, the minister in charge of internal security; and Gideon Gono, the
governor of the reserve bank-who will determine the endgame.
It will
be messy, of course, and will require Zanu-PF to be persuaded not to
create
a merely cosmetic unity government. For the MDC, one of the key
points of
the July memorandum was that regional brokers others than Mbeki
will play a
more prominent role. Time will tell if this promise is honoured,
but those
now in the frame include Jean Ping of the African Union. Any
mediator needs
to be able to dangle some carrots. The only constructive role
the west can
now play is in underwriting the cost of economic recovery. This
is a bitter
pill. It will involve underpinning the prosperity of many who
have stolen
and plundered.
Many of Mugabe's supporters will demand influence around
the table. Much of
his core support is still voluntary-and even
enthusiastic-and accounts for
up to 40 per cent of the electorate. Although
Zanu-PF's supporters are in
the minority, they make up important sectors of
society: probably the
majority of the intellectual class, because of
Mugabe's nationalist
ideology; the huge majority of the senior military
personnel from the
liberation war; the urban oligarchies who have profited
from manipulating an
economy in free fall; village headmen who have never
understood the MDC's
largely urban appeal and who have been well rewarded in
return; and a small
but appreciable group of peasants who have finally
gained ownership of
patches of land-an issue that remains hugely important
in Zimbabwe. The MDC,
by contrast, is overwhelmingly the party of Harare
and, to a lesser extent,
the other big cities such as Bulawayo and Mutare.
Its backbone is the
salaried middle class, which has been the biggest loser
from the economic
collapse.
Despite holding many of the cards,
Zanu-PF and its backers will have to
display restraint. Among the MDC, the
key senior players such as Ncube and
Mutambara will need to be awarded
significant ministries. And the best of
the technocratic wing of Zanu-PF,
people like Simba Makoni, Mugabe's other
challenger for the presidency, will
need to be on board. The west has always
been prepared to do business with
Makoni-a technocratic paragon of
"Zanu-PF-lite" who many feel never really
left the party-and might insist on
his ministerial inclusion.
Of
course, there will be arguments about Mugabe's eventual departure: about
the
length of any transition and whether he should retain a titular
presidency.
Although this would be largely ceremonial (Mugabe as the "Queen
of
Zimbabwe"), Zanu-PF would fight to retain the "commander-in-chief" role,
meaning Mugabe, and Zanu-PF, would retain ultimate control of the
military.
The elephant in the room is of course what role might be
offered to
Tsvangirai. Ironically, the real threat to his long-term future
may not come
from Zanu-PF but from within his own MDC. It is here that
personal and
political tragedies intersect. Many within the party are
disillusioned with
his recent performance. It is by no means certain he will
remain at the top.
If there is a succession, this will involve as many
factional fights within
the MDC as are likely to occur in a post-Mugabe
Zanu-PF. The political
careers of Makoni and Biti may have some way to
run.
***
Whoever ultimately runs Zimbabwe will, of course,
inherit an economic
disaster. And whatever the political settlement, things
will get worse
before they get better. Gideon Gono has been printing money
to cover the
cost of his currency purchases and the result is Weimar-style
inflation. US
dollars or South African rand will need to be imposed as a
viable currency,
if not directly, then via a new Zimbabwean dollar tied
directly to one of
these currencies and underwritten by the international
community for at
least three years.
The agricultural sector will take
time to regenerate. Other African
providers have seized Zimbabwean markets;
local infrastructure has decayed;
there are few agri-industrial experts in
either Zanu-PF or the MDC; and
basic farming infrastructure has fallen
apart. The mining industry is too
small to lead an economic revival. And
tourism is dead. The international
community must invest heavily and provide
balance-of-payments support. Debts
owed to other states will need to be
rescheduled. And reindustrialisation
cannot depend on the South African
grid, as Zimbabwe's southern neighbour is
itself suffering electrical
shortages.
Many in the 4m-strong Zimbabwean diaspora will come back as
soon as an
agreement on a unity government is declared, but a huge number
will wait.
For the sake of the transitional economy, they need to stay out.
Their
remittances keep afloat possibly a majority of families, even those
with
Zanu-PF sympathies, and will be needed for some time to come. But the
longer
they stay out, the more their vital skills will be missed in
Zimbabwe.
Repairing the economy will require extremely painful measures,
and any
"unity leader" who implemented them would risk becoming unelectable
in any
future "honest" elections. Paradoxically, this may be a reason for a
sort of
cynical hope. Zanu-PF knows the economy must be rebuilt. It may
therefore be
willing to surrender the top executive post to an MDC
leader-hoping to dodge
the unpopularity and pave the way for a future return
to power.
Of course, this brings us back to Mugabe's state of mind. Will
he, or his
inner circle, be able to accept any real political change? The
Zanu-PF
publicity on the eve of the election stressed Mugabe's relationship
with
God. Full-page advertisements likened him to Moses, then to King David.
Tsvangirai was compared to David's rebellious son, Absalom. (Someone should
have a word with Mugabe's researchers. After all, Moses never reached the
promised land, and Absalom rebelled against his father on a platform of
justice.) That said, Mugabe probably will go. Having delivered his party one
last electoral "victory," he will be 89 by the next elections. His party
knows a younger leader must be found before then, and the economy must be
stabilised. Mugabe will be encouraged to bow out by his own people. Look to
the September meeting of the Zanu-PF central committee to outline a
timetable for departure, and the December party congress for the last great
standing ovation from faithful followers. Beyond December lies the 2009
South African election. A Jacob Zuma presidency, much more heavily critical
of Zanu-PF, must finally mean the end for Mugabe. It is also Tsvangirai's
tragedy that this endgame may also encompass his own political demise.
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=1661
July 30, 2008
ZANU-PF is now on its last
foot and what is required now is a political move
for the jugular. First we
must recognise that these power-sharing talks are
a time giving device for
what ever is left of the party to regroup again.
To beat Zanu, you have
to be unpredictable and MT has been good at it
recently. Zanu-PF thinks they
can corrupt or buy anyone. That is the
predictable outcome. They cannot
think beyond that. So, to move out of the
current Thabo Mbeki initiated
false talks, the MDC, that is both factions,
must all go into exile in South
Africa. In this case, I mean the whole lot,
including women and kids. Mass
movement of a people otherwise there will be
mass killings if any members
are left behind.
This will be the ultimate killer blow to the regime. If
I was George
Chiweshe of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, I would have
left long ago.
The secrets he holds must remain as such. There is no honour
among thieves.
I implore the MDC to really work up to the fact that you
cannot work with
Mbeki and Zanu-PF. There is no sincerity
whatsoever.
To the ANC, the sooner you get rid of Mbeki the better before
he really
messes up the country big time. The man is a danger to
himself.
Dust Mukorekore.
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=1664
July 30, 2008
MR NORMAN Ngwenya, you may be
surprised to find that many people who could
be called ex-Rhodesians (but
prefer to be Zimbabweans) agree with you. Like
myself.
The settlement
of 1980 brought no lasting peace to Zimbabwe because among
other reasons,
there was little opportunity to expose the inhuman violence
that had been
inflicted by both sides (Rhodesian forces and ZANLA/ZIPRA)
against civilians
seen - respectively - as colluding with "terrorists" or as
"sellouts". There
was no Truth and Reconciliation Commission to give the
victims their voice
and their dignity back and to force those who had buried
their heads in the
sand of the veld, to face what had been done in their
name.
Thus, one
violent elite handed over to another, and on we go.
David Coltart, in a
very thought-provoking article, has described the long
history of state
sponsored violence in Zimbabwe and the resulting
idealisation of violence,
'kragdadigheid' and the gun. It's time it ended -
in Zimbabwe and in South
Africa too.
So, let us go ahead. Call them to account - all of them,
black or white,
wherever they are if they are still alive or even if they're
not. Let a
respected, neutral body decide if amnesty is justified and let
the survivors
be heard. Their tales will break our hearts and their tears
will wash us
clean.
Until we're brave enough to do that, we should
forget about criticising
Western leaders who, after all, are only responding
to pressure from their
own constituencies - it's called
democracy!
Sally Davies