Former Zimbabwe Finance Minister Discusses Possible Role in Run-off Vote

VOA

By James Butty
Washington, D.C.
12 May 2008

Zimbabwe's electoral commission says the run-off between President Robert
Mugabe and challenger Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic
Change will not be held within two weeks as required by law.  Tsvangirai
announced Saturday that he would take part in the run-off, saying the vote
should be held by May 24th. But in remarks published by the state-owned
"Sunday Mail" newspaper, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission chief George Chiweshe
said the commission would need more time to prepare for the run-off.

Former Zimbabwe finance minister Simba Makoni was the only independent
presidential candidate and won about nine percent of the vote. Some analysts
have suggested that if Tsvangirai is to defeat President Mugabe in the
run-off, he would need the support of Makoni.

Makoni told VOA shortly before Tsvangirai announced his decision Saturday to
contest the run-off vote that the results of the March 29 election showed
that Zimbabweans want their leaders to work together.

“At the moment, we are working to avoid that the country have another
election. We believe that the country cannot afford another election
immediately. But if our efforts fail and a run-off is deemed inevitable, we
will then make up our position regarding the participation in the run-off,
taking account of the circumstances of that time and the stance of the
parties to our proposition that the country should be saved another election
under these circumstances,” he said.

Denford Magora, spokesman for Makoni told VOA back in March that Makoni did
not join with Tsvangirai during the first round vote because of policy
differences.

Makoni said he could work with Robert Mugabe, Arthur Mutambara or Tsvangirai
in the interest of patriotism.

“If you had followed our position right from the time when I announced my
candidacy, we do not accentuate negatives. We move by positives. Morgan
Tsvangirai is a Zimbabwean patriot and national, so as President Robert
Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara and the other participants in this election. And
we believe that we can work together as compatriots and patriots. And that
is what we are investing our energy and our resources in working for,” he
Makoni said.

He reiterated that the differences that separated him from other
presidential candidates in the first round should not bar them from working
together.

“The fact that there were four presidential contestants means that we all
represent different positions or offer different positions. But I am saying
that that fact by itself does not bar us from working together for the
greater national interest. And so we are not looking for barriers to
cooperation, we are looking for those common that enable us to work together
for the good of our people,” he said.

On the violence that has rocked Zimbabwe since the first round election on
March 29, Makoni called on Zimbabwe youths who he said are at the forefront
of the violence to not kill or die for Mugabe, Tsvangirai or he Makoni
himself.

“I want to premise my remarks on this matter by recalling my opening
statement to this election campaign. I suggested at that time that no one
was worth dying for. In fact the sentence read something like no one is
worth dying for, not Morgan Tsvangirai, not President Mugabe, not Simba
Makoni definitely. And no one is worth killing for not Morgan Tsvangirai,
not President Mugabe, not Simba Makoni definitely. I maintain that position,
and my appeal to Zimbabweans, especially Zimbabwean youths who are at the
forefront of this occurring of violence and intimidation, please don’t kill
for any of us. It’s not worth it. The life of every Zimbabwean is valuable;
it’s sacred, and we should do everything to protect and defend it,” Makoni
said.

SA delegation sent to Zimbabwe

SABC

May 12, 2008, 05:00

South Africa has sent a delegation to Zimbabwe to ensure that peace prevails
in the run-up to the poll. Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
has disclosed this at the end of the fifth Ministerial Commission between
India, Brazil and South Africa, known as IBSA.

She says none of the political parties in Zimbabwe will benefit if there is
violence ahead of the presidential run-off elections. The Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission (ZEC) has still not set a date for the run-off. The commissions
reportedly ruled out May 23, the date required by law 21 days after the May
2 announcement of the presidential results.

Meanwhile South Africa's tripartite alliance described Morgan Tsvangirai's
decision to take part in the presidential run-off election as a positive
move. However the SA Communist Party (SACP) general-secretary, Blade
Nzimande, says they are still concerned about the escalating violence in
Zimbabwe. He says it is likely to affect the conditions for a free and fair
poll.

MDC wants SADC to send peacekeepers

The Star

May 12, 2008 Edition 1

Peta Thornycroft and Reuters

Former home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa, who was a top guerrilla during
the 1970s liberation war, says Zimbabwe is now under military rule.

Zimbabwe's main opposition group stepped up efforts to secure regional
peacekeepers for a run-off presidential election against President Robert
Mugabe, a spokesperson said yesterday.

Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai held talks in
Pretoria on Saturday with Angola's President Jose Eduardo dos Santos to
encourage the Southern African Development Community to send the
peacekeepers, MDC spokesperson George Sibotshiwe said.

Santos heads SADC's organ on politics and security.

"He received a warm reception, and ... they discussed the way forward,"
Sibotshiwe said, but declined to give details.

Tsvangirai said he would return home within two days to deal Mugabe a "final
knock-out" after almost three decades in power. He said he wanted SADC
peacekeepers to instill public confidence in the ballot and bring an end to
the crisis that followed the disputed March 29 poll.

Angola's Angop news agency said Tsvangirai had said that "should he win the
election ... the outgoing president would be granted an honourable exit as
... Robert Mugabe was the father of the nation."

Dabengwa, a respected commander of the late Joshua Nkomo's Zipra forces told
Zimbabwe's Sunday Standard newspaper that deployment of the Zimbabwe
National Army to campaign for Mugabe in the upcoming re-run of the
presidential election was a clear indication of a "de facto coup".

He said many of those in the post-election violence who called themselves
"war veterans" were too young to have served in the liberation war.

The army denied last week that it was involved in the violence and distanced
itself from it.

Meanwhile, the family of an MDC polling agent in southern Zimbabwe, who say
their son was murdered by Zanu-PF militias, have dropped his body at the
party chairman's house and demanded compensation for his death.

According to the Sunday Standard Zvidzai Mapurisa was reportedly murdered
late last month after he was kidnapped by Zanu-PF men who descended on his
village in the Gunikuni area, Masvingo South, about 200km north of Beit
Bridge.

MDC Masvingo party chairman Wilstaf Sitemere told the Standard that
Mapurisa's parents demanded R40 000 and 53 head of cattle as compensation
for their son's death and dropped his body at Zanu-PF ward chairman Hwani
Dhadha's house.

Masvingo police spokesperson Inspector Fibion Nyambo said the police had not
yet received reports about the Mapurisa family refusing to bury their
relative.

He said some suspects had been arrested.

ZANU PF loss,more than meets the eye

http://zimbabwemetro.com

By Tafadzwa Musekiwa ⋅ May 11, 2008
 AS A young Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) MP, I recall Webster Shamu
coming to sit next to me one sunny afternoon in the Zimbabwe House of
Assembly dining room sometime in April 2002.

Shamu who was then MP for Chegutu, representing the ruling Zanu-PF said
something to me then that six years later seems to have been a prophecy.

Stating the obvious, he said that, if the Zanu-PF old guard had a policy of
renewal, the likes of the late Learnmore Jongwe (then MP Kuwadzana) and Job
Sikhala (then MP St Mary’s) and I might not have made it into Parliament.
Shamu said the continuous refusal by the old guard to accept the changing
times would one day come back to haunt them.

He went further stating that, the biggest problem in Zanu -PF was the people
who President Robert Mugabe listens to. As a result, Mugabe was told what
those around him thought he wanted to hear most of the time, while those
that really know the mood on the ground never got to a chance to communicate
anything to the old man, he said.

If the news that Robert Mugabe was told to step down by his colleagues, just
before he roped in Jabulani Sibanda, the 37-year-old war veterans leader,
who at the time of independence was about nine years old and his war
veterans to force his endorsement as Zanu-PF presidential candidate is
anything to go by, I am just wondering what those that had advised him
against running are thinking today. What about those whose advice Mugabe
followed? What is he thinking about them today?

I find it interesting to note that it is only the Bright Matongas (Deputy
Information Minister who only became a Zanu-PF MP five years ago and about
whom nobody knew anything before then) and the Patrick Chinamasas (Justice
Minister who lost an election the only time he has presented himself to the
people) that seem to be excited about the current situation. Those in the
know view this period as potentially disastrous not only for Zanu-PF as a
party but for Mugabe as well.

I recall that Zanu-PF had a plan in place to deal with Mugabe’s succession.
According to Amendment 18 of the Zimbabwe’s Constitution (2007), the
intention of clauses 2 and 3 was to amend sections 28 and 29 of the
Constitution in order to make Senate and the House of Assembly sit as an
electoral college and elect a president if a President dies, resigns or is
removed from office instead of an election being called within 90 days as
was provided for. The composition of the House of Assembly was amended to
increase the number of seats from 150 to 210, all of them all elected .The
size of the Senate was increased to 93 members.

The delimitation of constituencies, done by the Mugabe’s appointees, the
ZEC, came out with revised constituencies which drastically slashed the
number of constituencies in the urban areas and the Matabeleland region
where they realised the MDC was strong. This clearly favoured Zanu-PF since
most of the new seats were allocated to rural constituencies.

Following the unfortunate split of the MDC into two in October 2005, the
assumption was that the MDC, led by Morgan Tsvangirai would win the urban
seats of Mashonaland, Masvingo and Manicaland while the MDC, led by
Professor Arthur Mutambara would get Matebeleland, both urban and rural, and
thus effectively dividing the opposition vote equally. This would have left
Zanu-PF with rural constituencies in Mashonaland, Masvingo and Manicaland
where the majority of the seats had been allocated.

For Mugabe to ensure that everyone was on board with him, his key advisers
advised him to hold harmonised elections so that even those that did not
want Mugabe but were Zanu-PF would be forced to campaign for him also in the
process of campaigning for Zanu-PF MPs, thus ensuring him a chance to win
the presidency.

The plan seemed perfect, in the eyes of Zanu-PF, that they even ensured a
fairly peaceful pre-election environment as well as agreeing to count and
publish vote tallies at the polling stations. The plan was to ensure a
Zanu-PF victory through a fairly peaceful but not necessarily free and fair
election. In politics however, as has been proven time and time again, no
matter how you strategise, plot and conspire, as long as the people are not
part of that equation, the plot is bound to fail. Because these strategies
did not take into account the people’s interests as well as the issue of
Mugabe’s unpopularity, the failure of Zanu-PF in the general elections on
March 29 came as no surprise.

I am sure those in Zanu-PF who had seen the light when they advised Mugabe
that he was unpopular and was likely to lose if he had gone for this
election are now telling the hardliners that; “We told you so.” The problem
is that now it is a bit too late to amend things; the people have spoken.
The vote for change, the vote for MDC and Tsvangirai has been cast. In spite
of any attempts to bury the fact, even the most casual observer can see the
overwhelming evidence that the same people who voted on March 29 are likely
to vote again in any future election and, in fact, those that did not vote
for one reason or another including age, are not likely to vote Zanu-PF.

Zanu-PF is reportedly entertaining ideas of harming or persecuting Morgan
Tsvangirai on the assumption that such action will ease their political
misfortunes. Such actions are bound to be disastrous and any attempts to
harm him will only make him more popular as people will sympathise with him
even more. Worse still, the safety of the perpetrators of such a heinous
crimes will not be guaranteed in any future inevitable new Zimbabwe.

What also has to be understood in the broader context is that Didymus Mutasa’s
“dear old man”, as he described Mugabe, is indeed old. I don’t wish him dead
though a lot people wish he was. But it’s a fact of life that at 84, his
days are naturally numbered, thus the Zimbabwe solution becomes more urgent
than normal.

In his absence and in the absence of a clear front runner to take over
Zanu-PF, the likelihood of the party crumbling and the MDC taking total
control of the political scene, leaving Zanu-PF just relying on the military
and the judiciary, is real. Any politician will know that relying on
military power or state institutions like the judiciary has its dangers,
especially in the 21st Century; there are enough examples to be cited such
as Thailand and Pakistan where such institutions have succumbed to the whims
of the majority.

It is unfortunate our learned colleagues in the judiciary and some of our
military top brass such as General Chiwenga and his wife Jocelyn as well
seem not to realise that the more they exacerbate this problem the more it’s
likely to work against them in the very near future.

Surely, one cannot be blinded by patronage not to see such overt evil. It is
only prudent for Zanu-PF, the judiciary and the military to realise that
there is need not to continue holding the wishes of the people hostage. The
defeat of Mugabe and Zanu-PF’s was always inevitable. The wisest course of
action for them now is to concede defeat.

One way or the other Mugabe and Zanu-PF will have to come to terms with the
fact that the MDC is now the majority political party in Zimbabwe and
‘President’ Morgan Tsvangirai is the most popular politician in Zimbabwe
today, and is here to stay. The people’s patience is running out; any
attempts by Zanu-PF to prolong this stalemate will merely aggravate the
situation.

My own thinking is that at the end of the day, doing the right thing today
will give Mugabe a moral high ground in future regardless of the wrongs he
has committed in the past. It’s not too late. We are living in constantly
changing times, and during this period, some might be tempted to abandon
their principles and integrity for the sake of patronage. Let us not find
ourselves wanting despite the seemingly unavoidable temptation for power.

The future is in the people of Zimbabwe’s hands and ultimately some people
including some of the judges and magistrates whose decisions are only aiding
and encouraging injustice will end up paying a very expensive price when the
time comes. Time will tell.

Tafadzwa Musekiwa is a former student leader and former MDC Member of
Parliament for Zengeza, he writes from the United Kingdom.

Zimbabwe suffers in total paralysis

Business Day

12 May 2008

Dumisani Muleya

SINCE Zimbabwe’s recent elections, the country has lurched from a protracted
political and economic crisis to paralysis. Everything — the politics,
economy, the social fabric — is dysfunctional.

Frantic diplomatic efforts are being made to resolve the situation but
nothing seems to be working. Political paralysis has set in.

Presdient Robert Mugabe will be bitterly disappointed if he thinks digging
in will help him to hang on to power for ever. His dream of being president
for life is in tatters. Despite his grandstanding, there will be no change
in the situation, except for the worse. Mugabe is now ruling by diktat
because he has no popular mandate. At best, Zimbabwe has a constitutional
vacuum, at worst it has an illegitimate ruler.

Legally, there is no parliament or cabinet in Zimbabwe — there is just
Mugabe and his surrogates ruling on their own. Mugabe dissolved parliament
and cabinet before the elections, but now claims to have reconstituted his
cabinet to cover up his rule by fiat.

Whatever he says, the cycle of nothingness that has existed since March 29
will continue. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is also
getting into a state of paralysis. After defeating Mugabe and his ruling
Zanu (PF), the MDC seems to have run out of ideas.

The trouble is that the opposition has no serious leverage to change the
situation. Its attempt at mass action a few weeks ago was a damp squib. The
truth is that even if the MDC is popular with the masses, it is structurally
brittle and lacks strong leadership. It has no capacity to deal with Mugabe’s
hardened regime. It has been consistently outflanked in the streets by
Mugabe’s brutal security forces and outmanoeuvred at the negotiating table.

The power relations still favour Mugabe, due to his control of the
instruments of repression. There is a need for the MDC to be more dynamic to
avoid becoming paralysed. The party also needs to rely more on formal
structures to make critical decisions on the way forward, rather than
ghostly characters or money grubbers with narrow vested interests. The party
risks being hijacked by money mongers, especially now that it is on the
verge of gaining power.

The economy is becoming even more paralysed. Over the past three weeks, the
economic free fall accelerated. Shortages of just about every basic
necessity — food, fuel, medicine, water and electricity — are worsening.
Factories and companies, which have been operating at below 20% capacity,
are slowly grinding to a halt. Unemployment, poverty and deprivation are
getting worse. A number of workers are now voluntarily stopping working
because they spend more money going to work than they earn.

On the diplomatic front, political principals and their envoys, mainly in
the region, are trying hard to resolve the problem, but they have so far
failed dismally.

President Thabo Mbeki was in Harare on Friday to talk to Mugabe about
political violence, the presidential election runoff and the possibility of
a negotiated settlement. The last time Mbeki paid a flying visit to Harare,
on April 12, on his way to Lusaka, Zambia, for an urgent Southern African
Development Community (SADC) summit, he said there was “no crisis” in
Zimbabwe . His exercise in damage-limitation — saying he meant there was no
“electoral crisis” since a runoff would resolve the deadlock — was soon
undermined by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s (ZEC)’s inability to
release results for more than a month.

After finally releasing the results, the ZEC is now playing games with the
runoff date. The body is refusing to announce when the second round will be
held, even though the law says it must come no later than May 23. Instead,
ZEC is suggesting the runoff may even be delayed by up to 12 months. No
legal basis for this is given.

Fruitless negotiations have been held by the United Nations, the African
Union, SADC and SA with Mugabe and the MDC leaders. Zimbabwe has had eight
years of wasted diplomacy, which has produced only a national paralysis.

Muleya is Harare correspondent.

7 000 teachers flee from schools

By Owen Chikari

MASVINGO, May 12, 2008, (thezimbabwetimes.com) - At least 7 000 teachers
have fled their schools amid reports that several schools have been
temporarily closed as political violence spreads to all corners of the
country union officials said yesterday.

The displaced teachers are mostly those from rural areas where President
Robert Mugabe’s former ruling Zanu-PF party have embarked on a terror
campaign in which opposition supporters have been harassed or killed ahead
of the presidential run-off.

Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe PTUZ president Takavafira Zhou
yesterday said that at least 7 000 teachers had fled their schools due to
political instability and violence across the country while about five
schools have temporarily closed in the southern regions of the country.

“According to our records over 7 000 teachers most of them from rural areas
have run away from their schools as ruling party supporters accuse them of
supporting the opposition’” said Zhou.

“These teachers are not going back to work unless their safety is
guaranteed. In Masvingo province alone about five schools have been closed
while several others have been hard hit by the shortage of teaching staff.”

According to the PTUZ the situation is tense in resettlement areas where
marauding  Zanu-PF activists led by war veterans are harassing and beating
up teachers while accusing them of supporting the victorious MDC.

Some of the schools which have been temporarily closed in Masvingo include
Chongogwe, Mutikizizi, Bota, and Chinga primary and secondary schools.

Education officials here confirmed that several schools in southern Zimbabwe
were hard hit by a shortage of teaching staff as some have fled their work
places to seek refuge in urban areas where violence is minimal.

Stephen Mahere the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Education Sport
and Culture yesterday said his ministry was now recruiting temporary
teaching staff to avert the crisis.

“I can confirm that most schools in Matabeleland, Masvingo and Manicaland
provinces have been affected by the shortage of teachers who have fled from
violence,” said Mahere

“Unfortunately the affected teachers have not reported these incidents to us
and we feel they are just exaggerating the situation.”

Standard editor appears in court

By Our Correspondent

HARARE, May 12, 2008 (thezimbabwetimes.com) - The editor of The Zimbabwe
Standard, Davison Maruziva, who was arrested midweek and detained for
publishing an article deemed to be in contempt of court and prejudicial to
the state appeared in court on Friday.

Maruziwa appeared before regional magistrate Doris Shomwe and was remanded
out of custody on $10 billion bail.

He spent a night in detention at Harare Central Police Station. He faces two
charges under the draconian Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act.

Shomwe ordered Maruziva to report every Monday to the Criminal Investigation
Department’s Law and Order section until the matter is finalized.

Maruziva who has been asked to appear in court on May 23 is required to
report at Marlborough Police Station once every week. The veteran journalist
was further ordered not to interfere with State witnesses and
investigations.

Maruziva was represented in court by advocate Mehta Deepak of Atherston and
Cook while Memory Mukapa prosecuted.

Deepak who was assisted by Arthur Mutsonziwa confirmed Maruziwa had been
released after paying $10 billion bail.

Deepak said: “He has been released on $10 billion bail. He was detained over
night and is being charged with contravening section 31 of the Criminal Law
(Codification and Reform) Act for publishing or communicating a false
statement prejudicial to the State.”

Charges against Maruziva arose from an article by MDC faction leader Arthur
Mutambara which he published in April. The authorities allege the article
was false and that it undermined public confidence in the Zimbabwe Prison
Services and the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

On April 20 the Standard published an article written by Mutambara under the
heading,  “A Shameful Betrayal of National Independence”.

The article criticized Justice Tendai Uchena for dismissing an application
by the opposition MDC to compel the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to release
the then delayed results of the poll.

In the same article Mutambara also launched a withering attack on Zimbabwe’s
ageing leader President Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF describing the
Zimbabwean political crisis as an “extreme illegitimacy where we have an
abrasive caretaker President and an illegally constituted cabinet in cahoots
with an imbecilic and cynical military junta”.

The state also charged that Maruziva, being the editor, allowed another
statement by Mutambara falsely accusing Zanu-PF and the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission of being in a criminal collusion to fraudulently tamper with
polls in the wake of vote recounts.

Mutambara wrote: “In terms of the House of Assembly, the agenda is to
fraudulently seize at least nine seats from the opposition through recounts
and court action leading to re-runs. This explains the 23 recounts that ZEC
has instituted. There is clearly criminal collusion between ZEC and
 Zanu-PF.”

He added: “To add insult to injury, this unholy marriage is dutifully
consummated by a compliant and pliable judiciary typified and exemplified by
Judge Tendayi Uchena’s unreasonable and thoughtless decision not to order
ZEC to release the presidential results”.

Zimbabwe Independent Media Group special projects editor Iden Wetherell said
Maruziva’s arrest was a sign that the government was cracking down on the
media.

Wetherell said: “That represents a serious attack on press and political
freedoms. We are surprised they are not arresting the author of the article
who is here in the country.”

Mutambara’s statement received widespread coverage, including on The
Zimbabwe Times website.

Several journalists have been arrested since the elections.

International news agency Reuters on Thursday said one of its photographers,
Howard Burditt, had been arrested for allegedly using a satellite phone to
transmit pictures.

The Zimbabwe chapter of the Media Institute of Southern Africa said five
other journalists, including Jonathan Clayton, the South Africa-based
correspondent of the UK newspaper The Times were arrested and faced various
charges after the elections.

Clayton was deported from Zimbabwe on April 15 after being detained for
eight nights and fined $20 billion for violating the country’s immigration
laws.

A Harare court last month acquitted another British reporter, Steve Bevan,
and New York Times journalist Barry Bearak who were arrested and detained
for five days when police raided a lodge in which they were staying on April
3.

A Zimbabwean freelance journalist Stanley Karombo was detained after being
arrested at Gwanzura Stadium while covering the Independence Day
celebrations.

Zimbabwe has some of the toughest media laws and a terrible record of
harassment of journalists and repression of the media in general.

Run-off may revive President Mbeki’s credibility over Zimbabwe policy

The Times
May 12, 2008

Jonathan Clayton
President Mbeki, derided in South Africa and abroad for his policy on
Zimbabwe, plans to use the decision to hold a presidential run-off there to
revive his battered diplomacy and push for a regional settlement to the
crisis.

On Friday advisers to Mr Mbeki, the regional mediator for Zimbabwe, held
five hours of talks with President Mugabe that are assumed to have focused
on mechanisms to ensure that the guidelines of the Southern African
Development Community are applied in the second round.

Mr Mbeki’s critics concede that his success in obtaining an agreement to
have results from the first round posted outside every polling station, and
to have representatives from all parties inside the stations, made rigging
more difficult than in previous polls. Obtaining similar agreements for a
second round, along with the presence of international observers and
possibly a UN role, is a key demand of the Zimbabwean Opposition. “The
country is bankrupt and has no money to finance a second round. Mr Mbeki may
be able to use that as a carrot to win some concessions,” Buchizya Mseteka,
a Zambian political analyst, said.

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, said on
Saturday that he would contest a run-off. He plans to return to the country
today, having left in March a few days after the first round.

Negotiation, not election, will see Mugabe out

(thezimbabwetimes.com, May 12, 2008)

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe appears determined to extend his rule at all costs
beyond his just-ended term.

His obsessive desire to extend his tenure would be perfectly understandable
if he was seeking a second or third term of office. But he has been Prime
Minister and President of Zimbabwe continuously for a total of 28 years. To
crown it all, at 84 years old he is certainly advanced in age.

In normal circumstances even the members of the extended Mugabe family would
be painfully embarrassed by such an outrageous hankering for power on the
part of their patriarch.

That, coupled with the fact that Zimbabwe is currently embroiled in a crisis
of unprecedented proportion, now baffles the minds of many of his
compatriots, including the silent majority within his own Zanu-PF party.
Patrick Chinamasa, Bright Matonga and, occasionally Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, who
form only a tiny minority within the party’s leadership, still make any
utterances representing the former ruling party or its president. The rest
of the Zanu-PF leadership now seems to believe in silent participation.

Increasingly the question is being asked, with what appears to be genuine
sincerity and increasing justification, whether Mr Mugabe is, indeed, still
in control of Zanu-PF or of all his own faculties. His obsession with
preventing the British from re-colonising Zimbabwe has certainly become both
bizarre, pathetic and shameful. His fixation with protecting Zimbabwe from
the British has reduced him, Zanu-PF and Zimbabwe as a whole into the
laughing stock of the progressive world.

There is no doubt that the proposed run-off election, necessitated by a
cunning amendment to the Constitution by Zanu-PF at a time when the party
leadership realised that their days were numbered, will be costly in terms
of resources and life. In our current dire straits as a nation, we can
hardly afford to invest further financial resources in a process merely
seeking to assuage Mr Mugabe’s wounded pride after his rejection in a
democratic election, while granting him a few more days in office.

Meanwhile, the death toll is already mounting in the early stages of the
campaign for the senseless forthcoming election.

This election is to be held in an outlandish bid to secure victory for Mr
Mugabe against all the odds and the result is, on a balance of
probabilities, likely to be an even more dismal performance by him. What
guarantee is there that, bruised and battered, he and his cohorts will
promptly announce the result this time around? Who can guarantee that Mr
Mugabe and the Joint Operations Command will finally accept and respect the
result as the will of the people of Zimbabwe?

There is an alternative proposal for a solution that could achieve the
desired result at much less cost financially and emotionally but with a
greater guarantee of acceptance of the outcome. This proposal is predicated
on the premise that the current political deadlockis not the outcome of any
expectation by Mr Mugabe that he will win a free and fair election this time
around. His intransigence is a result of the fear on his part of the likely
consequences of stepping down from power in the absence of clearly defined
guarantees of his own security. Their recent performance in that regard
certainly does not generate much optimism.

This proposal is made before Mr Mugabe compounds an already complex
situation by causing further mayhem.

A team of patriotic, well-meaning and politically mature and astute
Zimbabweans must be appointed with haste for the purpose of negotiating with
Mr Mugabe the terms of his exit. Those who continue to bay for his blood do
so out of total failure to come to terms with the dynamics and the
complexities of the current political stand-of. The mandate of the team
would be to persuade him to let go of his hold on Zimbabwe in exchange for
certain guarantees of his safety. That way the people of Zimbabwe can
immediately launch the process of reconstruction and rehabilitation of a
nation battered by a decade of economic ruin, political polarisation, a
collapse of social services, run-away inflation and international isolation.

There certainly is no shortage of men and women of good standing and
goodwill from outside mainstream politics who are qualified and competent
enough to play such a role with selfless determination in the national
interest and without any expectation of personal reward or gain.

The team does not have to be very large and it would include one
representative each of the MDC and Zanu-PF, both being men or women
demonstrably imbued with the same qualities. It is to be hoped that every
civil society organisation would not demand to be represented.

Such team would effectively replace President Thabo Mbeki in the role that
he has so dismally played so far.  The South African leader has tried his
best, no doubt with the best of intentions, but even he must accept that he
has not achieved much. This is said in the absence of any details from last
Thursday’s meeting between him and his Zimbabwean counterpart in Harare.

The time has arrived for Zimbabweans to take up the cudgels to hammer out an
acceptable solution to the problem of Mr Mugabe’s refusal to give up the
presidency. The SADC leadership can lend support to the process by applying
pressure on him to accept the reality of his rejection by the Zimbabwean
electorate.

MDC must change its approach to transition

The Zimbabwe Times

By Peter Chimutsa
May 12, 2008

 “ZANU-PF will only negotiate with the MDC if Morgan Tsvangirai is not going
to be part of the negotiation and part of the Government of National Unity.”

I bet many of you had to read this statement twice to find out exactly what
I was proposing. Sounds ridiculous, right? Firstly Morgan Tsvangirai is the
leader of the Movement for Democratic Change and he got 47.9 per cent of the
presidential vote and was elected by the MDC party to contest the
presidential elections. He is, by law, also the automatic candidate for a
runoff.

Flip the script. The MDC demands to negotiate for a GNU without President
Mugabe, who was chosen by the Zanu-PF party to be its presidential
candidate; and who, by law, is the automatic candidate for an election
run-off sounds ridiculous. How can the leader of a party not be party to
such negotiation?

Some of these populist and myopic demands for the MDC are some of the
reasons why they can never sit at the same table with Zanu-PF and come up
with a workable solution for the benefit our country.

I couldn’t care less who the President is. All I want for a government is
that it is accountable to the people, that is not corrupt and that respects
the dignity of its citizens and offers prosperity is installed.

Those who are so power-hungry as to think that they only can lead are the
ones who are putting us into this mess.

Zimbabwe needs mature debate and those who make unnecessary demands which
they know will never be met only exacerbate that situation. Tsvangirai
should learn to be diplomatic in his approach and manner; so that the
country can move forward. Splitting the SADC region will not help him get
into power; discrediting South African President Mbeki will only serve to
delay and undermine the work that he is tasked to do in the country.

President Mbeki is an influential position in the SADC and will not be
snubbed by SADC leaders. The MDC is only harming itself by ‘firing’
President Mbeki. He leads the most advanced country in the region,
economically and militarily. President Mwanawasa of Zambia will not have the
same level of influence in the region; neither will President Ian Seretse
Khama.

So why should Tsvangirai find allies among less influential people? These
people will not deliver anything for the MDC.

Tsvangirai needs to realise that he is still in opposition, despite all his
claims of an electoral victory and SADC, AU, UN will only give full audience
to a government, not an opposition group. He and the MDC will remain in the
gallery or on the sidelines of these organisations. If the rhetoric doesn’t
change, Tsvangirai will also remain on the sidelines of negotiations in
Zimbabwe, a situation which will not help him achieve power.

How can he negotiate with someone he calls a dictator? How can he negotiate
with a ‘militarised regime’? How can he negotiate with a ‘geriatric’?

These words are not helpful and only infuriate those he is calling names.
Tsvangirai can say that he has been called names before; but those in power
call the shots. This is the sad truth and is true everywhere - in Africa,
America, Europe, Asia, Latin America and Australasia.

Any transfer of power requires the incumbent to concede; but when you
intimidate those you want to concede and threaten them with lawsuits; you
only make it difficult for the transition to occur.

Tsvangirai can win an election at the run-off; but the truth is that to win
power he has to be more diplomatic in his approach. True, this is less
populist, but is what is needed nevertheless. Events of the last few weeks
have proven that the MDC is still incapable of handling a power transition.
They need serious political advisors before the next run-off; otherwise
their win, if they win, will be meaningless on the ground and will not
change things.

Time at the border is money

Business Day

12 May 2008

Jocelyn Newmarch

Transport Correspondent

TRANSPORT quality in sub-Saharan Africa is weak and trucks are not utilised
to their full potential, according to a new study. This pushes up the costs
of transport and raises consumer prices, while hurting the competitiveness
of landlocked countries.

The study, Transport Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa, was conducted by the World
Bank and presented to industry in Pretoria last month.

Transport prices account for between 15% and 20% of import prices in many
countries, the researchers say. Landlocked countries lose between one and
1,5 percentage points of growth a year in this way.

Border delays in particular add to costs and contribute to low utilisation
of trucks as days are added to the truck’s round-trip journey.

The study analysed priority corridors for road transport such as the
Lusaka-Johannesburg, Lusaka-Lilongwe and Lusaka-Livingstone corridors in
southern Africa . Researchers interviewed 600 companies representing a
combined fleet of 8000 trucks in nine countries — Burkina Faso, Ghana, Chad,
Cameroon, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia and SA — with a focus on the most important
routes for the six landlocked countries.

Border crossings account for between 30% and 40% of transport time,
particularly at Beit Bridge (Zimbabwe and SA) and Chirundu (Zimbabwe and
Zambia) border posts. Truck utilisation can be increased by 30000km- 40000km
a year if this is cleared up.

Trucks using the 1611km Lusaka-Johannesburg corridor made an average of 25
round trips a year each, for an average annual mileage of 80550km.

There were also low margins compared with the other three subregions in
Africa.

Financing road rehabilitation and reduced border-crossing time, fuel prices
and informal payment can all help bring down costs. Taxes and levies account
for 78% of the fuel price in Zambia, the study says.

Southern Africa is a competitive environment on the international corridors,
the study concluded. It has the best regulatory regimes and the most
efficient logistics services.

Delays, particularly at border crossings, remain an issue.

Trucking companies in this region carry high variable costs, according to
the study .

For the Lusaka-Johannesburg route, 85% of total costs are variable. Fuel and
tyres are the most important expense items, accounting for more than 90% of
total variable costs. Informal payments make up 4% or less of total variable
costs. But throughout the countries studied, variable costs are 70% or more
of total costs .

SA is actually cheaper than the US and Europe, according to Barney Curtis of
the Federation of East and Southern African Road Transport Associations.
“Though our fuel and labour costs may be low, the delays and extra costs are
high.”

Curtis says border crossings are responsible for most delays, although bad
roads and ferries also have an impact.

The duration of border delays depend s on the border post as well as the
type of commodity the truck is carrying. A tanker or refrigerated truck can
cross a border in less than a day, while one with a consolidated load might
have to fulfil many requirements and can take two or three days to cross.
While it often takes three or four days to cross Beit Bridge , it can take
between five and seven days to get through the Kasangula border post between
Botswana and Zambia . The Lubumbashi border post between Zambia and the
Democratic Republic of Congo “easily” takes seven days, Curtis says .

“We have several programmes in place to reduce transit times and that work
is ongoing. Traffic has increased significantly but border delays are not
going up much,” Curtis says, although the federation is working with
industry and governments to improve facilitation and reduce trucking time.

The Lubumbashi-Durban corridor is the busiest, he says , while less traffic
goes through Zimbabwe. Between 400 and 500 trucks a day pass through Beit
Bridge, in both directions.

“Informal” payments are a major issue, Curtis says. This delays vehicles and
drivers are forced to carry cash, often in hard currency, to make payments.
“They spring up here, you knock it down, and they spring up again
 elsewhere,” he says. “It’s an ongoing problem.”

High transport costs have serious consequences for consumers — who pay
higher prices as a result — and also for economic growth, says University of
Cape Town (UCT) trade economist Lawrence Edwards.

Both exporters and manufacturers suffer as exports become less competitive
and imported components, which manufacturers frequently rely on, are more
expensive by the time they arrive at their destination.

Production becomes more expensive and profit is reduced.

This also inhibits attempts to diversify economies and keeps countries
specialised in low value-added products such as coal. Economic growth
worldwide is associated with manufacturing and exporting, Edwards says.

Globally, there is a trend for companies to outsource production, with
companies specialising in subcomponents that can then be assembled in a
different country. But this approach relies on an integrated region with
cheap transport.

When it comes to trade, time is money. But trade researcher Peter Draper
cautions that there are many other nontariff trade barriers that are not
related to transport, such as Zimbabwe’s implosion, which he feels are more
important to tackle.