Zim Online
Tue 29 November 2005
HARARE - Zimbabwe may have
offered exporters above market rates for
their hard cash in order to raise
US$77 million it used to partly repay an
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
debt and to pay for critical imports,
market analysts said on
Monday.
The southern African country in August paid a surprise
US$120 to the
IMF, which raised questions from critics and the IMF board
about the source
of the money, but was however enough to win Harare a
six-month reprieve from
possible expulsion from the Bretton Woods
institution for non-payment of
debt.
President Robert Mugabe's
government followed up with another US$15
million deposit to the IMF in
September before it paid another US$10 million
last Friday, with Reserve
Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono promising to
clear a US$150 million
outstanding debt by next March.
"We are a country
that stands by our commitment and we have now and
March to make good our
commitment," said Gono yesterday, without letting
much about how Harare is
raising the hard cash.
When the IMF publicly questioned the August
payment, Gono insisted
that all monies paid to the Fund came from export
earnings, inflows from
expatriate Zimbabweans and locals working for
foreign-owned organisations
who are paid in foreign currency.
But analysts said the RBZ could have this time round paid a premium
for the
money from exporters, who now remain the largest source of foreign
currency
for the Harare authorities.
The Zimbabwe dollar is trading at
around Z$68 000 to the US dollar on
the interbank market, but analysts said
the central bank could have paid
more for the foreign currency.
Others suggested the RBZ could even have paid rates close to those
offered
at the illegal black-market where the greenback fetches anything
above Z$90
000 per unit.
"I am told that the Reserve Bank has asked for money
to be released to
them by exporters but at a better rate. So they were
incentivised in some
way, which could account for the US$10 million
payment," said Harare
economic consultant John Robertson.
"The
authorities may not have offered exactly the same rates as on the
black-market but clearly they had to offer an attractive rate to access
exporter hard cash," said an economic analyst with a Harare asset management
firm, who declined to be named.
In addition to paying the IMF,
the Harare administration also paid a
total US$67 million to various firms
for the supply of fuel, grain,
electricity, seed and other farming
inputs.
Zimbabwe is in the throes of a deepening economic crisis,
shown by
triple-digit inflation, unemployment above 80 percent and a foreign
currency
crunch that has sparked fuel shortages.
The crisis has
been worsened by the withdrawal of aid by key donors
who cited policy
differences with Mugabe, especially his forcible seizure of
land from white
commercial farmers to resettle blacks.
The IMF has said even if
Zimbabwe managed to pay all what it owes, it
risked accumulating arrears
again without fundamental policy changes to put
the economy on a sustainable
recovery path.
Analysts concurred, adding that the IMF will not
automatically loosen
its purse strings even if Zimbabwe cleared its
obligations.
"We will face many conditions and clearly we will not
meet those
requirements," said Robertson. "We have to change our policies
but the
government has consistently shown that it is not willing to do so,"
he
added.
The World Bank, another key financier, has said
Zimbabwe's economic
decline is the worst for a country not at war while the
IMF has predicted
that gross domestic product will contract by more than 7
percent this year.
The IMF began a process to revoke Zimbabwe's
membership in December
2003 after the government fell back on debt
repayments.
Since then the executive board has twice - in July 2004
and February
2005 - postponed the decision that Zimbabwe be stripped of its
fund
membership, a move likely to further isolate the beleaguered country. -
ZimOnline
Zim Online
Tue
29 November 2005
KAROI - Five junior police officers were arrested
last weekend in
Karoi town, about 200km north-west of Harare, after they
complained about
the poor allowances paid to them for providing security and
performing other
duties during the controversial Senate
election.
The policemen, who were still detained yesterday, are
likely to be
charged with insubordination under the Police Act, according to
sources.
The five are said to have expressed dismay at the low
allowances
telling Zimbabwe Electoral Commission officials running the
election in the
town that the allowances were "nothing short of voluntary
service" to the
government.
They were immediately
arrested.
Junior police officers were paid Z$700 000 (about US$7)
in allowances
for duties performed during the election won by President
Robert Mugabe's
ZANU PF party.
A senior police officer in Karoi
confirmed the arrests. He said: "They
were arrested on Sunday and are still
in detention after they raised concern
over the poor allowances. The money
we received from the government was just
too little compared to the March
election when we received Z$5 million."
Chief Election Officer for
Kariba-Hurungwe constituency, Wellington
Chisepo, refused to comment on the
issue while Mashonaland West police
spokesperson Inspector Paul Nyathi said
he was still to receive the report
on the matter.
This is not
the first time that there have been grumblings of
discontent within the
security services over low pay and poor working
conditions. There were
unconfirmed reports last month that several soldiers
had been arrested after
they complained about poor pay.
The police, like most civil
servants, are among the worst paid in
Zimbabwe which is grappling a severe
economic crisis which has seen
inflation shooting beyond 400 percent. They
take home an income around Z$2.8
million (about US$31) per month. -
ZimOnline
Zim Online
Tue
29 November 2005
HARARE - President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU PF
party won three of
the four senate seats whose results had not been
announced by Sunday night
because of communication problems due to heavy
rains.
ZANU PF posted victories in traditionally opposition
constituencies of
Hwange East, Tsholotsho-Hwange and in Gokwe to bring to 43
the number of
seats won by the party out of the 50 that were up for
grabs.
A faction of the main opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC)
party that contested the election against party leader Morgan
Tsvangirai's
call for a boycott won in Binga constituency to bring its
total haul in the
poll to a paltry seven seats.
Mugabe will
appoint six other members to the senate, while traditional
chiefs who
normally back ZANU PF, will appoint another 10 senators,
effectively
bringing the number of seats controlled by the ruling party to a
massive 59
seats, making the presence of the MDC in the 66-seat second
chamber
virtually meaningless.
Independent poll observers estimate turnout
in the Saturday poll at
between 15 and 20 percent, probably the worst
turnout in a national election
since the country's independence 25 years
ago.
Meanwhile, there were reports last night that ZANU PF will
back
long-time parliamentary deputy speaker Edna Madzongwe to become
President of
the Senate with veteran nationalist Naison Ndlovu as her
deputy.
ZANU PF stalwart Kumbirai Kangai will replace Madzongwe as
deputy to
speaker of the lower chamber, John Nkomo. -
ZimOnline
Zim Online
Tue 29 November
2005
HARARE - A visibly exasperated mother drags away her pesky
four-year
old son from a gift shop window, upset by his insistence that she
buys him a
toy car for Christmas.
"Dad will buy it for you next
week," she fabricates an excuse to
persuade him to move away from the shop
window.
As she melts away into the crowds in the shopping mall,
Chiedza Moyo,
31, like many of Zimbabwe's hard-pressed parents, agonises
that this year
there will be no Santa Claus coming down the chimney to stuff
gifts under
the beds for her children.
Times are hard for
Zimbabweans.
For proof, just observe the crowds jostling along
First Street Mall -
a prime pedestrian mall in the middle of Harare. The
crowds have not thinned
one bit. There are probably just as many people
shoving and pushing along
the popular mall as one could have seen here this
time last year.
But it is the enthusiasm to shop, the festive
spirit or as some Harare
residents love to call it "the buying power" that
is absent!
There are not many in the crowds along the mall that are
laden with
gifts shopped with abundance from some of Zimbabwe's prime shops
like
Barbours, Greatermans or Truworths all dotted around and along the
mall.
This would invariably have been the case in November before
1999 when
Zimbabwe's economic crisis set in after the International Monetary
Fund
withdrew financial assistance following disagreements with President
Robert
Mugabe's government over fiscal policy and other governance
issues.
The World Bank has described Zimbabwe's economic crisis as
unseen in a
country not at war.
Skyrocketing food prices
coupled with acute shortages of every basic
survival commodity that have
characterised the economic crisis have
certainly taken the wind out of many
Zimbabweans yearning for merry-making
during the eminent festive
season.
"We don't even plan for any merry-making this year," says
Christine
Kurenje, who had been up and down the city looking for cooking
oil, among
essential commodities hard to find in Zimbabwe.
Inflation, which hit 411 percent last month and is still rising, has
also
hit hard Zimbabweans' pockets with many families forced to reduce the
number
of meals they eat per day and to forego basic necessities such as
shoes for
their children as a coping measure.
The average consumer basket of
the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ)
more than anything else illustrates
the plight of most ordinary people. The
state-funded consumer rights
watchdog says an average family of a mother,
father and four children
requires $11.9 million for basic goods and services
per month.
But an average factory worker, who in most cases would have a spouse
and
children to look after, takes home on average three million dollars per
month. How such people have managed to pull through the year would certainly
make a perfect case study for students of economics.
"How can
we spend when school fees next term are going up to $13
million?" said
Kurenje, who lives with her husband in the low-income suburb
of Kuwadzana
west of the city centre.
The couple has two children all at
missionary-run boarding schools,
expensive but the only sure sources of a
good education for many working
class children whose parents cannot afford
higher fees at exclusive private
schools.
The private schools
are a preserve of the children of top company
executives and officials of
Mugabe's government and ruling ZANU PF party.
Kurenje added: "If we
manage to get a decent meal for the family on
Christmas Day, then that will
be a great achievement . . . the problem is
that there are fewer special
offers on food items than in November last
year."
Many of the
shoppers along First Street and elsewhere across town are
hopping from
supermarket to supermarket calculators in hand to work price
differences in
a bid to make some small saving.
They are not alone in trying to
cut costs. Workers at some of the big
supermarket chains said management had
ordered them to haul last year's
Christmas decorations from the warehouses,
spruce them up, before mounting
them on shop fronts, all as a cost cutting
measure.
But the decorations seem to have done little to entice
Zimbabweans to
spend more according to gift shop owner, Ismail
Rajan.
"Business has been below expectations and I am not so sure
it will
pick up with time. I don't expect a last minute rush from the look
of
things," Rajan said.
But Rajan is quick to point out that
the depressed Christmas shopping
season was not entirely unexpected given
that Christmas sales have been in
gradual decline since 2000 - the year
Mugabe launched his chaotic and often
violent seizure of white-owned farms
for redistribution to blacks.
The farm seizures which Mugabe said
were necessary to ensure blacks
deprived of land by past colonial
governments also owned the vital resource,
destabilised the mainstay
agricultural sector, hastening a collapse of
Zimbabwe's economy that had
been set in motion by IMF withdrawal of funds
the year before.
Mugabe's controversial land redistribution programme also knocked down
food
production by about 60 percent to leave once food exporting Zimbabwe
dependent on food aid.
But the veteran President denies his
agricultural and economic
policies ruined Zimbabwe and instead blames the
country's problems on
sabotage by Britain and its Western allies opposed to
his land reforms.
Mugabe says by giving Zimbabweans land he has
given them the key to
economic prosperity. This is probably true, only that
for now it may be hard
to swallow for a factory worker paid three million
dollars at the end of the
month when he needs $11.9 million to feed his
family. - ZimOnline
Zim Online
Tue 29 November 2005
CHINHOYI - Deep in the bowels of the
earth, Rambai Mabayo, ferociously
throws the pickaxe into the
ground.
There is a dogged persistence and determination in the
manner he goes
about his business, heavy drops of sweat trickling on his
cheeks.
As he continues deeper into the gaping hole, Mabayo seems
oblivious of
the danger that the mine could simply cave in and bury him
alive. Gradually,
Mabayo presses on.
Two of his colleagues are
however keeping an eye on the road, fully
aware that the police could pounce
and seize their hard day's work.
Here in Chikuti, 80km north-west
of the provincial capital of
Chinhoyi, hundreds of villagers who benefited
from President Robert Mugabe's
land allocation programme five years ago have
abandoned their fertile pieces
of land to concentrate on gold
panning.
They say not only are the rewards immediate, but are also
immense.
Mabayo, however says ever since he embarked on gold
panning, he has
never had peace from the police's Gold Squad who normally
pounce and seize
their gold accusing them of selling the gold to unlicensed
dealers.
"I spent some days in the mountains after the police
threatened to
arrest us. The police confiscated our shovels and wheelbarrow.
It's tough
because we have to deal with this threat of arrest from the
police," he
says.
Under Zimbabwe's laws, gold panners must sell
the commodity to
licensed dealers at Z$700 000 per gram. But most of the
panners sell to
unlicensed dealers, who pay a staggering Z$1 200 000 for the
same quantity
of gold.
The Zimbabwe government, which is
battling a severe five year economic
crisis which has seen inflation
shooting beyond 400 percent, blames the
illegal trade in precious minerals,
among other things, for triggering the
country's economic
collapse.
Food, fuel, essential medicines are also in critical
short supply
because there is no hard cash to pay suppliers.
The police also accuse the gold panners of damaging the environment
through
uncontrolled river bank panning.
But apart from these legitimate
"concerns", the villagers accuse the
corrupt police officers of seizing
their gold and selling it on the parallel
market, fuelling rampant
inflation.
President Robert Mugabe's ministers and several police
officers have
been accused in the past of unlawfully dealing in gold and
other precious
minerals.
Last month, a senior government
official was accused in court of
unlawfully dressing 20 private security
guards in police uniform and sending
them to evict illegal gold panners from
their panning site which he then
took over.
Another villager,
Fibion Maramba, says he also spent two nights in the
bush as the police
camped at their panning site and combed the area of gold
panners.
"What crime have we committed since Gono (Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe
governor) has allowed us to operate?" asks
Maramba.
But Mashonaland West police spokesperson Inspector Paul
Nyathi says
there is nothing sinister about the police operation. He said
the police
will continue to carry out such raids to monitor the sales of
gold.
"We have to see to it that gold is sold to the authorised
dealers
because some buyers do not forward it to Fidelity," says Nyathi. -
ZimOnline
Zim Online
Tue 29 November 2005
HARARE - Please mark my words.
The so-called Senate election which
took place last weekend will achieve
absolutely nothing for the Zimbabwean
masses.
The stark reality
is that after the election, people will realise that
there continues to be
no fuel in the country, no foreign currency and no
food for the starving
people.
The victims of Operation Murambatsvina continue to be
without homes,
and are wandering in the wilderness like wild animals exposed
to the
inclement weather.
There were two main objectives of
that Senate election: (1) To
prevent by all means possible the elimination
or destruction of ZANU PF from
the Zimbabwe political scene at all cost,
which is bound to happen if the
change advocated by the MDC comes to
pass.
And second, to ensure the protection of President Robert
Mugabe after
he retires or is forced out of power because of all the heinous
crimes he
has committed against the people, as well as the violations as
understood in
international humanitarian law.
To achieve these
ends, the grateful new Senators, in collaboration or
collusion with the
present Parliament, will enact a retirement package for
their Dear Leader
designed to render him immune from any call for
accountability for the
crimes he committed during his rule.
It is being hoped that this
will be with the support of those in the
opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) party who participated in
the Senate election. (How all this
will play out is anybody's guess. It will
depend on how many of these people
will actually win and become Senators).
There is also speculation
that following the Senate election, there
will be formed a Government of
National Unity (GNU), which may include some
MDC people, ostensibly from
among those who participated in the Senate
election, plus, of course, the
bulk of the ZANU PF crowd, especially the so
called "new-reformed"
elements.
Such a scenario would seem to suit perfectly those in the
international community who want to spend more of their time worrying
about Iraq, Afghanistan, international terrorism, the Israeli-Palestine
issue and bird flu, without having to worry about such insignificant
happenings in Zimbabwe, Burundi, Darfur and Somalia.
Sensing
this, the Zimbabwe regime, apparently with the support of
South Africa have
gone on high gear to capitalise on the situation by
floating the above
ideas.
If the truth be faced, though, all indications are that the
overwhelming majority of the people of Zimbabwe, as represented by the MDC,
civil society organisations as well as the grassroots organisations, cannot
and will not buy these nefarious machinations.
All the
intrigues and media hype about "tribalism" will not work.
The MDC
is not a tribal-based party. It never started that way and it
never
developed and progressed that way. It will never allow itself to be
trapped
into that folly.
The MDC is a multi-ethnic and multi-national
democratic party, the
like of which has never been seen in Zimbabwe before.
That is why the MDC
has caused so much panic and hatred in ZANU PF's
leadership. That is why the
regime's media and the Central Intelligence
Organisation spy agents are
working furiously overtime to destroy
it.
Therefore, it is really important that all of us who believe in
democratic change in Zimbabwe should consolidate our commitment and
vigilance. This also means that all those of us who cherish the protection
of human rights in our beloved country should not just sit by and watch such
insanity being foisted on the population.
It, therefore stands
to reason that all those among us who no longer
can stand the continued
suffering of our people in Zimbabwe, including all
those who value the
principles of democratic constitutionalism to stand up
and be
counted.
In the hearts of most thinking Zimbabweans, the MDC is
still alive and
kicking.
This is because in their hearts of
hearts, all the suffering people of
Zimbabwe, especially those of the
Midlands and Matabeleland, who have
suffered so much in the past, will never
support ZANU PF ever, and will
never trust any scheme hatched out by ZANU
PF, such as this Senate thing.
This is because, from 25 years of
experience, such ZANU PF schemes
never ever benefit the ordinary
Zimbabweans. Instead, all ZANU PF schemes
and policies have only benefited a
favoured few or the ZANU PF elites.
Remember always that a skunk
will always be a skunk. Whether it likes
it or not it can never get rid of
its own smell.
Professor Solomon Nkiwane
Prof. Stan Mukasa
November 28,
2005
The tightening of targeted sanctions by the United States
against
Mugabe and top ZANUPF officials to include their children and
ZANUPF-owned
companies could significantly force a major policy shift within
this ruling
elite.
Mugabe and his top officials have always
been very sensitive to their
children, some of whom work or are being
educated outside Zimbabwe.
Some of the families of the ZANUPF officials
may find themselves
exerting pressure on these officials to take steps to
avoid these sanctions
against their children.
It appears these
targeted children of top ZANUPF officials could have
their visas
withdrawn.
But there is a broader issue that focuses on the
long-term
implications of the US policy not only on Zimbabwe but Africa as a
whole.
One of the discussions on Africa have centered on the US
policy and
strategies on Africa. There have been many concerns that the Bush
administration is more interested in Europe and Asia than
Africa.
An independent task force on the US policy on Africa will
publish its
report on December 5.
This report has far -reaching
implications on the shape and direction
of future US policies not only on
Africa but on Zimbabwe.
A summary presentation of the report was
given last week at the
conference of the African Studies Association in
Washington DC.
The key element of the task force's recommendation
is that the United
States should develop a wider context for its policy on
Africa.
The task force feels the US is placing humanitarian,
poverty and aid
issues as the central focus of its policy on Africa. The
task force
recommends that the focus should be on a wider context on issues
like
security, investments and energy. The US policy should go beyond
humanitarian issues.
According to the task force's report there
is a deepening societal
engagement on Africa in the United States. A number
of public and private
institutions like Human Rights Watch, the Gates
Foundation, Open Society,
Amnesty International are directly engaged in
Africa.
The G-8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, placed Africa and
poverty and
debt reduction at the top of its agenda. There was also a Live
Aid concert
which was watched by an estimated one billon people around the
world.
The problem with all these engagements on Africa is,
according to the
task force's report, that they do not seem to go beyond the
traditional
humanitarian aid to Africa. In this respect, Africa is seen as a
charity
case that is completely dependent on aid.
By focusing
on humanitarian aid Africa becomes an object rather than
subject of any
policy of engagement on the continent. Time has come for
Africa to be viewed
as a proactive partner and subject of such engagement.
The US
policy on Africa must therefore focus on a dynamic partnership
with the
African leadership.
According to the task force report, there are
compelling reasons for a
new policy that elevates African engagement to a
partnership rather than an
act of charity.
US interests in
Africa go far beyond simplistic aid and humanitarian
considerations. Africa
is increasingly becoming a major supplier of energy,
both oil and
gas.
Fifteen percent of US oil supplies come from Africa,
especially
Nigeria. New natural gas finds in other African countries point
to increased
energy imports from Africa to the US. It is estimated that US
energy imports
from Africa will double to about 30 percent in the next 10 to
15 years.
This shows that Africa is more than a humanitarian case.
Africa is now
very competitive as a new scramble for Africa's resources gets
into full
swing. China is increasing her investment in Africa. It owns large
oil
investments in the Sudan.
But Africa is reeling under the
AIDS pandemic. The continent is now
experiencing significant increases in
deaths as a result of AIDS. This wave
of deaths from the AIDS pandemic will
spread to India, China and Asia.
US policy on Africa must come to
grips with this reality of increased
energy needs, increased competition as
well as the steep rise in AIDS-
related deaths on the
continent.
The task force report also highlights terrorism and
trade and conflict
resolution as other important elements that should shape
US policy on
Africa. Eastern Africa in particular is a new base for al Qaeda
operations.
While the United States has a strong military presence in
Djibouti there is
no political oversight on how to counter terrorism in
Africa.
On trade the report notes that while Africa's share of the
world trade
is only one percent Africa has a very strong presence at the
World Trade
Center where it commands 40 of the 147 votes in the WTC. Africa
can now
block international trade deals such as the ongoing negotiations on
subsidies. Here the US spends $350 billion a year in subsidies to its
corporations. Africa's strong presence at the WTC has so far managed to
block US initiatives short of outright removal of the
subsidies.
The task force also views dispute resolution in Africa
as important,
and calls for the US policy that will engage as full partners
Africa's
institutions like the African Union and its newly-created peace and
security
council, SADC, ECOWAS as well as presidents of energy producing
countries
like Nigeria.
Future directions for US policy on
Africa must recognize that while
the African Union and other institutions
have taken an initiative in the
continent's conflict resolution Africa
cannot do it alone but needs the
support of the US.
To
summarize the recommendations for future US policy on Africa:
The task
force encourages a US policy that gives more attention to the
energy
producing states like Nigeria.
The task force also recommends that
combating terrorism must be an
important part of that policy.
The
US policy must also put in place an ongoing program that sustains
the major
efforts to combat HIV/AIDS
The US policy must be investment
oriented. It must take Africa as an
across- the- board partner in order
to provide a context for democracy
and human rights issues.
The
US policy must invest in production. There must be serious
investments in
agriculture and educational sectors. The policy must also
address the
pitfalls of aid dependency. Some African countries rely up to 60
percent of
their budgets on aid. This perpetuates a dependency syndrome. The
US policy
must also stress trade reforms in Africa.
The task force report
notes that the US policy on Africa has a very
strong and unusual bipartisan
support in Congress
This means whatever policy is adopted by
whatever party in power will
almost likely be adopted by the other
party.
There were a number of criticisms of the
report.
The first was that the formulation of the report did not
include a
significant input from African politicians, officials and
academics.
The task force presenters said there had been some informal
consultation with Africa-based individuals.
Some delegates were
concerned that humanitarian and democracy issues
were being sacrificed on
the altar of investments, terrorism and the need to
counter the increased
Chinese investment presence in Africa.
Others felt that while
Congress was bipartisan in its Africa policy,
domestic issues in the US,
such as budget pressures, could force Congress to
cut back on the level of
its commitment to supporting Africa.
It was noted that as long as
humanitarian and aid concerns were the
focus of the US policy on Africa the
continent will always be seen as a
charity case. Congress might develop an
aid fatigue.
There was also concern that no strategy was in place
for mobilizing
and channeling Africa's own resources towards the broader
objectives of the
US policy on Africa. It was recognized there is a need to
take an inventory
of African resources and wealth some of which are outside
the continent.
The task force report also recommended that US
policy must include
very serious strategies for tackling corruption and the
need for
transparency and accountability in managing resources.
What then are the implications of this report on the future US policy
on
Zimbabwe?
The extension of targeted sanctions against ZANUPF and
their families
and businesses is likely to force Mugabe or his top officials
to somewhat
rethink their disastrous policies.
But there is a
danger that, by shifting focus away from democracy
issues, the task force
report might unwittingly give some encouragement to
Mugabe.
If
the recommendations were to be accepted by the State Department and
became
the foundation for a new US policy on Zimbabwe we could see the
revival of
former secretary state for Africa in the Reagan's administration,
Chester
Crocker's constructive engagement policy.
This kind of constructive
engagement involves putting more effort in
encouraging investment and
democracy in Zimbabwe.
Sadly, if there are any human rights or
democracy issues to be
discussed these would have to be in the context
investment, trade and
resource mobilization.
Specifically, a US
policy based on this report would tone down its
rhetoric on Mugabe's
dictatorial rule in Zimbabwe and find means of engaging
Mugabe and ZANUPF in
development strategies.
Mention was made at the ASA conference of
the China model for economic
growth without democracy. This might be the
unanticipated outcome of a
constructive engagement policy with
Mugabe.
During Chester Crocker's time in the early 1980s it was
assumed that
if South African blacks were given opportunities for self
development, jobs
and education they might be less demanding on humanitarian
and democratic
issues. Several years earlier the Carter administration tried
a policy based
on what was called benign neglect, meaning letting Africa
drift into
oblivion while making pretenses at saving the
continent.
Ultimately the hope was that democracy, unlike the
Chinese model,
would follow development.
This was, of course, a
mistaken view because it is difficult to say
how the Chinese model can be
successfully implemented in other places
outside China. In the past 30 years
or so there were many attempts to copy
the Chinese model for
development.
Many officials from Africa visited China and studied
the Chinese
system. But very few countries, if any, were able to
successfully implement
this model.
In the case of Mugabe
efforts will, under this model, have to be made
to attract more investments
or to persuade Mugabe to invest more money in
the productive sectors of the
economy in the hope that somehow democracy
will follow a prosperous
nation.
But this assumes that Mugabe is flexible in implementing
these plans,
especially if they will lead to the restoration of the rule of
law and
democracy.
This assumption cannot be sustained because
Mugabe has a mind of his
own and there are no guarantees that he will follow
through any agreements
reached with him. It must be pointed out that the
Chinese models are very
attractive to Mugabe.
The idea of
economic development without democracy suits Mugabe's
strategy for Zimbabwe
very well. What will inevitably become a problem is
when Mugabe has to
discuss democracy and humanitarian issues.
The implications of this
report to Zimbabwe are very clear. If
Zimbabweans want Mugabe to go then
Zimbabweans will have to overthrow him
themselves. If Zimbabweans cannot do
it then they must seek the help and
active engagement of regional bodies
like SADC, the African Union or
influential countries like South Africa and
Nigeria.
It is within this context that the recent tightening of
targeted
sanctions against Mugabe and his top ZANUPF officials must be
seen.
END
SW Radio Africa Zimbabwe news