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Harare offered exporters "black market rates" to raise hard cash: analysts

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      HARARE - Zimbabwe may have offered exporters above market rates for
their hard cash in order to raise US$77 million it used to partly repay an
International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt and to pay for critical imports,
market analysts said on Monday.

      The southern African country in August paid a surprise US$120 to the
IMF, which raised questions from critics and the IMF board about the source
of the money, but was however enough to win Harare a six-month reprieve from
possible expulsion from the Bretton Woods institution for non-payment of

      President Robert Mugabe's government followed up with another US$15
million deposit to the IMF in September before it paid another US$10 million
last Friday, with Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono promising to
clear a US$150 million outstanding debt by next March.

      "We are a country that stands by our commitment and we have now and
March to make good our commitment," said Gono yesterday, without letting
much about how Harare is raising the hard cash.

      When the IMF publicly questioned the August payment, Gono insisted
that all monies paid to the Fund came from export earnings, inflows from
expatriate Zimbabweans and locals working for foreign-owned organisations
who are paid in foreign currency.

      But analysts said the RBZ could have this time round paid a premium
for the money from exporters, who now remain the largest source of foreign
currency for the Harare authorities.

      The Zimbabwe dollar is trading at around Z$68 000 to the US dollar on
the interbank market, but analysts said the central bank could have paid
more for the foreign currency.

      Others suggested the RBZ could even have paid rates close to those
offered at the illegal black-market where the greenback fetches anything
above Z$90 000 per unit.

      "I am told that the Reserve Bank has asked for money to be released to
them by exporters but at a better rate. So they were incentivised in some
way, which could account for the US$10 million payment," said Harare
economic consultant John Robertson.

      "The authorities may not have offered exactly the same rates as on the
black-market but clearly they had to offer an attractive rate to access
exporter hard cash," said an economic analyst with a Harare asset management
firm, who declined to be named.

      In addition to paying the IMF, the Harare administration also paid a
total US$67 million to various firms for the supply of fuel, grain,
electricity, seed and other farming inputs.

      Zimbabwe is in the throes of a deepening economic crisis, shown by
triple-digit inflation, unemployment above 80 percent and a foreign currency
crunch that has sparked fuel shortages.

      The crisis has been worsened by the withdrawal of aid by key donors
who cited policy differences with Mugabe, especially his forcible seizure of
land from white commercial farmers to resettle blacks.

      The IMF has said even if Zimbabwe managed to pay all what it owes, it
risked accumulating arrears again without fundamental policy changes to put
the economy on a sustainable recovery path.

      Analysts concurred, adding that the IMF will not automatically loosen
its purse strings even if Zimbabwe cleared its obligations.

      "We will face many conditions and clearly we will not meet those
requirements," said Robertson. "We have to change our policies but the
government has consistently shown that it is not willing to do so," he

      The World Bank, another key financier, has said Zimbabwe's economic
decline is the worst for a country not at war while the IMF has predicted
that gross domestic product will contract by more than 7 percent this year.

      The IMF began a process to revoke Zimbabwe's membership in December
2003 after the government fell back on debt repayments.

      Since then the executive board has twice - in July 2004 and February
2005 - postponed the decision that Zimbabwe be stripped of its fund
membership, a move likely to further isolate the beleaguered country. -

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Policemen arrested for complaining over poor allowances

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      KAROI - Five junior police officers were arrested last weekend in
Karoi town, about 200km north-west of Harare, after they complained about
the poor allowances paid to them for providing security and performing other
duties during the controversial Senate election.

      The policemen, who were still detained yesterday, are likely to be
charged with insubordination under the Police Act, according to sources.

      The five are said to have expressed dismay at the low allowances
telling Zimbabwe Electoral Commission officials running the election in the
town that the allowances were "nothing short of voluntary service" to the

      They were immediately arrested.

      Junior police officers were paid Z$700 000 (about US$7) in allowances
for duties performed during the election won by President Robert Mugabe's
ZANU PF party.

      A senior police officer in Karoi confirmed the arrests. He said: "They
were arrested on Sunday and are still in detention after they raised concern
over the poor allowances. The money we received from the government was just
too little compared to the March election when we received Z$5 million."

      Chief Election Officer for Kariba-Hurungwe constituency, Wellington
Chisepo, refused to comment on the issue while  Mashonaland West police
spokesperson Inspector Paul Nyathi said he was still to receive the report
on the matter.

      This is not the first time that there have been grumblings of
discontent within the security services over low pay and  poor working
conditions. There were unconfirmed reports last month that several soldiers
had been arrested after they complained about poor pay.

      The police, like most civil servants, are among the worst paid in
Zimbabwe which is grappling a severe economic crisis which has seen
inflation shooting beyond 400 percent. They take home an income around Z$2.8
million (about  US$31) per month. - ZimOnline

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ZANU PF sweeps three of the remaining four senate seats

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      HARARE - President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU PF party won three of
the four senate seats whose results had not been announced by Sunday night
because of communication problems due to heavy rains.

      ZANU PF posted victories in traditionally opposition constituencies of
Hwange East, Tsholotsho-Hwange and in Gokwe to bring to 43 the number of
seats won by the party out of the 50 that were up for grabs.

      A faction of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
party that contested the election against party leader Morgan Tsvangirai's
call for a boycott won in Binga constituency to bring  its total haul in the
poll to a paltry seven seats.

      Mugabe will appoint six other members to the senate, while traditional
chiefs who normally back ZANU PF, will appoint another 10 senators,
effectively bringing the number of seats controlled by the ruling party to a
massive 59 seats, making the presence of the MDC in the 66-seat second
chamber virtually meaningless.

      Independent poll observers estimate turnout in the Saturday poll at
between 15 and 20 percent, probably the worst turnout in a national election
since the country's independence 25 years ago.

      Meanwhile, there were reports last night that ZANU PF will back
long-time parliamentary deputy speaker Edna Madzongwe to become President of
the Senate with veteran nationalist Naison Ndlovu as her deputy.

      ZANU PF stalwart Kumbirai Kangai will replace Madzongwe as deputy to
speaker of the lower chamber, John Nkomo. - ZimOnline

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No Santa Claus for Zimbabwean kids

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      HARARE - A visibly exasperated mother drags away her pesky four-year
old son from a gift shop window, upset by his insistence that she buys him a
toy car for Christmas.

      "Dad will buy it for you next week," she fabricates an excuse to
persuade him to move away from the shop window.

      As she melts away into the crowds in the shopping mall, Chiedza Moyo,
31, like many of Zimbabwe's hard-pressed parents, agonises that this year
there will be no Santa Claus coming down the chimney to stuff gifts under
the beds for her children.

      Times are hard for Zimbabweans.

      For proof, just observe the crowds jostling along First Street Mall -
a prime pedestrian mall in the middle of Harare. The crowds have not thinned
one bit. There are probably just as many people shoving and pushing along
the popular mall as one could have seen here this time last year.

      But it is the enthusiasm to shop, the festive spirit or as some Harare
residents love to call it "the buying power" that is absent!

      There are not many in the crowds along the mall that are laden with
gifts shopped with abundance from some of Zimbabwe's prime shops like
Barbours, Greatermans or Truworths all dotted around and along the mall.

      This would invariably have been the case in November before 1999 when
Zimbabwe's economic crisis set in after the International Monetary Fund
withdrew financial assistance following disagreements with President Robert
Mugabe's government over fiscal policy and other governance issues.

      The World Bank has described Zimbabwe's economic crisis as unseen in a
country not at war.

      Skyrocketing food prices coupled with acute shortages of every basic
survival commodity that have characterised the economic crisis have
certainly taken the wind out of many Zimbabweans yearning for merry-making
during the eminent festive season.

      "We don't even plan for any merry-making this year," says Christine
Kurenje, who had been up and down the city looking for cooking oil, among
essential commodities hard to find in Zimbabwe.

      Inflation, which hit 411 percent last month and is still rising, has
also hit hard Zimbabweans' pockets with many families forced to reduce the
number of meals they eat per day and to forego basic necessities such as
shoes for their children as a coping measure.

      The average consumer basket of the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ)
more than anything else illustrates the plight of most ordinary people. The
state-funded consumer rights watchdog says an average family of a mother,
father and four children requires $11.9 million for basic goods and services
per month.

      But an average factory worker, who in most cases would have a spouse
and children to look after, takes home on average three million dollars per
month. How such people have managed to pull through the year would certainly
make a perfect case study for students of economics.

      "How can we spend when school fees next term are going up to $13
million?" said Kurenje, who lives with her husband in the low-income suburb
of Kuwadzana west of the city centre.

      The couple has two children all at missionary-run boarding schools,
expensive but the only sure sources of a good education for many working
class children whose parents cannot afford higher fees at exclusive private

      The private schools are a preserve of the children of top company
executives and officials of Mugabe's government and ruling ZANU PF party.

      Kurenje added: "If we manage to get a decent meal for the family on
Christmas Day, then that will be a great achievement . . . the problem is
that there are fewer special offers on food items than in November last

      Many of the shoppers along First Street and elsewhere across town are
hopping from supermarket to supermarket calculators in hand to work price
differences in a bid to make some small saving.

      They are not alone in trying to cut costs. Workers at some of the big
supermarket chains said management had ordered them to haul last year's
Christmas decorations from the warehouses, spruce them up, before mounting
them on shop fronts, all as a cost cutting measure.

      But the decorations seem to have done little to entice Zimbabweans to
spend more according to gift shop owner, Ismail Rajan.

      "Business has been below expectations and I am not so sure it will
pick up with time. I don't expect a last minute rush from the look of
things," Rajan said.

      But Rajan is quick to point out that the depressed Christmas shopping
season was not entirely unexpected given that Christmas sales have been in
gradual decline since 2000 - the year Mugabe launched his chaotic and often
violent seizure of white-owned farms for redistribution to blacks.

      The farm seizures which Mugabe said were necessary to ensure blacks
deprived of land by past colonial governments also owned the vital resource,
destabilised the mainstay agricultural sector, hastening a collapse of
Zimbabwe's economy that had been set in motion by IMF withdrawal of funds
the year before.

      Mugabe's controversial land redistribution programme also knocked down
food production by about 60 percent to leave once food exporting Zimbabwe
dependent on food aid.

      But the veteran President denies his agricultural and economic
policies ruined Zimbabwe and instead blames the country's problems on
sabotage by Britain and its Western allies opposed to his land reforms.

      Mugabe says by giving Zimbabweans land he has given them the key to
economic prosperity. This is probably true, only that for now it may be hard
to swallow for a factory worker paid three million dollars at the end of the
month when he needs $11.9 million to feed his family. - ZimOnline

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Zimbabwe villagers abandon land to dig for gold

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      CHINHOYI - Deep in the bowels of the earth, Rambai Mabayo, ferociously
throws the pickaxe into the ground.

      There is a dogged persistence and determination in the manner he goes
about his business, heavy drops of sweat  trickling on his cheeks.

      As he continues deeper into the gaping hole, Mabayo seems oblivious of
the danger that the mine could simply cave in and bury him alive. Gradually,
Mabayo presses on.

      Two of his colleagues are however keeping an eye on the road, fully
aware that the police could pounce and seize their hard day's work.

      Here in Chikuti, 80km north-west of the provincial capital of
Chinhoyi, hundreds of villagers who benefited from President Robert Mugabe's
land allocation programme five years ago have abandoned their fertile pieces
of land to concentrate on gold panning.

      They say not only are the rewards immediate, but are also immense.

      Mabayo, however says ever since he embarked on gold panning, he has
never had peace from the police's Gold  Squad who normally pounce and seize
their gold accusing them of selling the gold to unlicensed dealers.

      "I spent some days in the mountains after the police threatened to
arrest us. The police confiscated our shovels and wheelbarrow. It's tough
because we have to deal with this threat of arrest from the police," he

      Under Zimbabwe's laws, gold panners must sell the commodity to
licensed dealers at Z$700 000 per gram. But most of  the panners sell to
unlicensed dealers, who pay a staggering Z$1 200 000 for the same quantity
of gold.

      The Zimbabwe government, which is battling a severe five year economic
crisis which has seen inflation shooting beyond 400 percent, blames the
illegal trade in precious minerals, among other things, for triggering the
country's economic collapse.

      Food, fuel, essential medicines are also in critical short supply
because there is no hard cash to pay suppliers.

      The police also accuse the gold panners of damaging the environment
through uncontrolled river bank panning.

      But apart from these legitimate "concerns", the villagers accuse the
corrupt police officers of seizing their gold and selling it on the parallel
market, fuelling rampant inflation.

      President Robert Mugabe's ministers and several police officers have
been accused in the past of unlawfully dealing in gold and other precious

      Last month, a senior government official was accused in court of
unlawfully dressing 20 private security guards in police uniform and sending
them to evict illegal gold panners from their panning site which he then
took over.

      Another villager, Fibion Maramba, says he also spent two nights in the
bush as the police camped at their panning site and combed the area of gold

      "What crime have we committed since Gono (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
governor) has allowed us to operate?" asks  Maramba.

      But Mashonaland West police spokesperson Inspector Paul Nyathi says
there is nothing sinister about the police operation. He said the police
will continue to carry out such raids to monitor the sales of gold.

      "We have to see to it  that gold is sold to the authorised dealers
because some buyers do not forward it to Fidelity," says Nyathi. - ZimOnline

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Zimbabweans won't buy into ZANU PF's nefarious Senate machinations

Zim Online

Tue 29 November 2005

      HARARE - Please mark my words. The so-called Senate election which
took place last weekend will achieve absolutely nothing for the Zimbabwean

      The stark reality is that after the election, people will realise that
there continues to be no fuel in the country, no foreign currency and no
food for the starving people.

      The victims of Operation Murambatsvina continue to be without homes,
and are wandering in the wilderness like wild animals exposed to the
inclement weather.

      There were two main objectives of that Senate election:  (1) To
prevent by all means possible the elimination or destruction of ZANU PF from
the Zimbabwe political scene at all cost, which is bound to happen if the
change advocated by the MDC comes to pass.

      And second, to ensure the protection of President Robert Mugabe after
he retires or is forced out of power because of all the heinous crimes he
has committed against the people, as well as the violations as understood in
international humanitarian law.

      To achieve these ends, the grateful new Senators, in collaboration or
collusion with the present Parliament, will enact a retirement package for
their Dear Leader designed to render him immune from any call for
accountability for the crimes he committed during his rule.

      It is being hoped that this will be with the support of those in the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party who participated in
the Senate election. (How all this will play out is anybody's guess. It will
depend on how many of these people will actually win and become Senators).

      There is also speculation that following the Senate election, there
will be formed a Government of National Unity (GNU), which may include some
MDC people, ostensibly from among those who participated in the Senate
election, plus, of course, the bulk of the ZANU PF crowd, especially the so
called "new-reformed" elements.

      Such a scenario would seem to suit perfectly those in the
international community who want to spend more of their time   worrying
about Iraq, Afghanistan, international terrorism, the Israeli-Palestine
issue and bird flu, without having to worry about such insignificant
happenings in Zimbabwe, Burundi, Darfur and Somalia.

      Sensing this, the Zimbabwe regime, apparently with the support of
South Africa have gone on high gear to capitalise on the situation by
floating the above ideas.

      If the truth be faced, though, all indications are that the
overwhelming majority of the people of Zimbabwe, as represented by the MDC,
civil society organisations as well as the grassroots organisations, cannot
and will not buy these nefarious machinations.

      All the intrigues and media hype about "tribalism" will not work.

      The MDC is not a tribal-based party. It never started that way and it
never developed and progressed that way. It will never allow itself to be
trapped into that folly.

      The MDC is a multi-ethnic and multi-national democratic party, the
like of which has never been seen in Zimbabwe before. That is why the MDC
has caused so much panic and hatred in ZANU PF's leadership. That is why the
regime's media and the Central Intelligence Organisation spy agents are
working furiously overtime to destroy it.

      Therefore, it is really important that all of us who believe in
democratic change in Zimbabwe should consolidate our commitment and
vigilance. This also means that all those of us who cherish the protection
of human rights in our beloved country should not just sit by and watch such
insanity being foisted on the population.

      It, therefore stands to reason that all those among us who no longer
can stand the continued suffering of our people in Zimbabwe, including all
those who value the principles of democratic constitutionalism to stand up
and be counted.

      In the hearts of most thinking Zimbabweans, the MDC is still alive and

      This is because in their hearts of hearts, all the suffering people of
Zimbabwe, especially those of the Midlands and Matabeleland, who have
suffered so much in the past, will never support ZANU PF ever, and will
never trust any scheme hatched out by ZANU PF, such as this Senate thing.

      This is because, from 25 years of experience, such ZANU PF schemes
never ever benefit the ordinary Zimbabweans. Instead, all ZANU PF schemes
and policies have only benefited a favoured few or the ZANU PF elites.

      Remember always that a skunk will always be a skunk. Whether it likes
it or not it can never get rid of its own smell.

      Professor Solomon Nkiwane

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Letter from America

      Prof. Stan Mukasa
      November 28, 2005

      The tightening of targeted sanctions by the United States against
Mugabe and top ZANUPF officials to include their children and ZANUPF-owned
companies could significantly force a major policy shift within this ruling

      Mugabe and his top officials have always been very sensitive to their
children, some of whom work or are being educated outside Zimbabwe.
      Some of the families of the ZANUPF officials may find themselves
exerting pressure on these officials to take steps to avoid these sanctions
against their children.

      It appears these targeted children of top ZANUPF officials could have
their visas withdrawn.

      But there is a broader issue that focuses on the long-term
implications of the US policy not only on Zimbabwe but Africa as a whole.

      One of the discussions on Africa have centered on the US policy and
strategies on Africa. There have been many concerns that the Bush
administration is more interested in Europe and Asia than Africa.

      An independent task force on the US policy on Africa will publish its
report on December 5.

      This report has far -reaching implications on the shape and direction
of future US policies not only on Africa but on Zimbabwe.

      A summary presentation of the report was given last week at the
conference of the African Studies Association in Washington DC.

      The key element of the task force's recommendation is that the United
States should develop a wider context for its policy on Africa.

      The task force feels the US is placing humanitarian, poverty and aid
issues as the central focus of its policy on Africa. The task force
recommends that the focus should be on a wider context on issues like
security, investments and energy. The US policy should go beyond
humanitarian issues.

      According to the task force's report there is a deepening societal
engagement on Africa in the United States. A number of public and private
institutions like Human Rights Watch, the Gates Foundation, Open Society,
Amnesty International are directly engaged in Africa.
      The G-8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, placed Africa and poverty and
debt reduction at the top of its agenda. There was also a Live Aid concert
which was watched by an estimated one billon people around the world.

      The problem with all these engagements on Africa is, according to the
task force's report, that they do not seem to go beyond the traditional
humanitarian aid to Africa. In this respect, Africa is seen as a charity
case that is completely dependent on aid.

      By focusing on humanitarian aid Africa becomes an object rather than
subject of any policy of engagement on the continent. Time has come for
Africa to be viewed as a proactive partner and subject of such engagement.

      The US policy on Africa must therefore focus on a dynamic partnership
with the African leadership.

      According to the task force report, there are compelling reasons for a
new policy that elevates African engagement to a partnership rather than an
act of charity.

      US interests in Africa go far beyond simplistic aid and humanitarian
considerations. Africa is increasingly becoming a major supplier of energy,
both oil and gas.

      Fifteen percent of US oil supplies come from Africa, especially
Nigeria. New natural gas finds in other African countries point to increased
energy imports from Africa to the US. It is estimated that US energy imports
from Africa will double to about 30 percent in the next 10 to 15 years.

      This shows that Africa is more than a humanitarian case. Africa is now
very competitive as a new scramble for Africa's resources gets into full
swing. China is increasing her investment in Africa. It owns large oil
investments in the Sudan.

      But Africa is reeling under the AIDS pandemic. The continent is now
experiencing significant increases in deaths as a result of AIDS. This wave
of deaths from the AIDS pandemic will spread to India, China and Asia.

      US policy on Africa must come to grips with this reality of increased
energy needs, increased competition as well as the steep rise in AIDS-
related deaths on the continent.

      The task force report also highlights terrorism and trade and conflict
resolution as other important elements that should shape US policy on
Africa. Eastern Africa in particular is a new base for al Qaeda operations.
While the United States has a strong military presence in Djibouti there is
no political oversight on how to counter terrorism in Africa.

      On trade the report notes that while Africa's share of the world trade
is only one percent Africa has a very strong presence at the World Trade
Center where it commands 40 of the 147 votes in the WTC. Africa can now
block international trade deals such as the ongoing negotiations on
subsidies. Here the US spends $350 billion a year in subsidies to its
corporations. Africa's strong presence at the WTC has so far managed to
block US initiatives short of outright removal of the subsidies.

      The task force also views dispute resolution in Africa as important,
and calls for the US policy that will engage as full partners Africa's
institutions like the African Union and its newly-created peace and security
council, SADC, ECOWAS as well as presidents of energy producing countries
like Nigeria.

      Future directions for US policy on Africa must recognize that while
the African Union and other institutions have taken an initiative in the
continent's conflict resolution Africa cannot do it alone but needs the
support of the US.

      To summarize the recommendations for future US policy on Africa:
      The task force encourages a US policy that gives more attention to the
energy producing states like Nigeria.
      The task force also recommends that combating terrorism must be an
important part of that policy.
      The US policy must also put in place an ongoing program that sustains
the major efforts to combat HIV/AIDS

      The US policy must be investment oriented. It must take Africa as an
      across- the- board partner in order to provide a context for democracy
and human rights issues.

      The US policy must invest in production. There must be serious
investments in agriculture and educational sectors. The policy must also
address the pitfalls of aid dependency. Some African countries rely up to 60
percent of their budgets on aid. This perpetuates a dependency syndrome. The
US policy must also stress trade reforms in Africa.

      The task force report notes that the US policy on Africa has a very
strong and unusual bipartisan support in Congress

      This means whatever policy is adopted by whatever party in power will
almost likely be adopted by the other party.

      There were a number of criticisms of the report.

      The first was that the formulation of the report did not include a
significant input from African politicians, officials and academics.
      The task force presenters said there had been some informal
consultation with Africa-based individuals.

      Some delegates were concerned that humanitarian and democracy issues
were being sacrificed on the altar of investments, terrorism and the need to
counter the increased Chinese investment presence in Africa.

      Others felt that while Congress was bipartisan in its Africa policy,
domestic issues in the US, such as budget pressures, could force Congress to
cut back on the level of its commitment to supporting Africa.

      It was noted that as long as humanitarian and aid concerns were the
focus of the US policy on Africa the continent will always be seen as a
charity case. Congress might develop an aid fatigue.

      There was also concern that no strategy was in place for mobilizing
and channeling Africa's own resources towards the broader objectives of the
US policy on Africa. It was recognized there is a need to take an inventory
of African resources and wealth some of which are outside the continent.

      The task force report also recommended that US policy must include
very serious strategies for tackling corruption and the need for
transparency and accountability in managing resources.

      What then are the implications of this report on the future US policy
on Zimbabwe?

      The extension of targeted sanctions against ZANUPF and their families
and businesses is likely to force Mugabe or his top officials to somewhat
rethink their disastrous policies.

      But there is a danger that, by shifting focus away from democracy
issues, the task force report might unwittingly give some encouragement to

      If the recommendations were to be accepted by the State Department and
became the foundation for a new US policy on Zimbabwe we could see the
revival of former secretary state for Africa in the Reagan's administration,
Chester Crocker's constructive engagement policy.
      This kind of constructive engagement involves putting more effort in
encouraging investment and democracy in Zimbabwe.

      Sadly, if there are any human rights or democracy issues to be
discussed these would have to be in the context investment, trade and
resource mobilization.

      Specifically, a US policy based on this report would tone down its
rhetoric on Mugabe's dictatorial rule in Zimbabwe and find means of engaging
Mugabe and ZANUPF in development strategies.

      Mention was made at the ASA conference of the China model for economic
growth without democracy. This might be the unanticipated outcome of a
constructive engagement policy with Mugabe.

      During Chester Crocker's time in the early 1980s it was assumed that
if South African blacks were given opportunities for self development, jobs
and education they might be less demanding on humanitarian and democratic
issues. Several years earlier the Carter administration tried a policy based
on what was called benign neglect, meaning letting Africa drift into
oblivion while making pretenses at saving the continent.

      Ultimately the hope was that democracy, unlike the Chinese model,
would follow development.

      This was, of course, a mistaken view because it is difficult to say
how the Chinese model can be successfully implemented in other places
outside China. In the past 30 years or so there were many attempts to copy
the Chinese model for development.

      Many officials from Africa visited China and studied the Chinese
system. But very few countries, if any, were able to successfully implement
this model.

      In the case of Mugabe efforts will, under this model, have to be made
to attract more investments or to persuade Mugabe to invest more money in
the productive sectors of the economy in the hope that somehow democracy
will follow a prosperous nation.

      But this assumes that Mugabe is flexible in implementing these plans,
especially if they will lead to the restoration of the rule of law and

      This assumption cannot be sustained because Mugabe has a mind of his
own and there are no guarantees that he will follow through any agreements
reached with him. It must be pointed out that the Chinese models are very
attractive to Mugabe.

      The idea of economic development without democracy suits Mugabe's
strategy for Zimbabwe very well. What will inevitably become a problem is
when Mugabe has to discuss democracy and humanitarian issues.

      The implications of this report to Zimbabwe are very clear. If
Zimbabweans want Mugabe to go then Zimbabweans will have to overthrow him
themselves. If Zimbabweans cannot do it then they must seek the help and
active engagement of regional bodies like SADC, the African Union or
influential countries like South Africa and Nigeria.

      It is within this context that the recent tightening of targeted
sanctions against Mugabe and his top ZANUPF officials must be seen.

      SW Radio Africa Zimbabwe news

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