SABC
October 27, 2008, 06:00
South African President Kgalema Motlanthe says the SADC
mediator, former SA
president Thabo Mbeki, has told him the allocation of
cabinet ministries,
which is causing the deadlock, could be settled today.
A crucial Southern African Development Community summit
meeting on Zimbabwe
starts in Harare today. The summit was called in an
effort to break the
deadlock over Zimbabwe's power-sharing deal.
It had to
be rescheduled when opposition MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai boycotted the
first summit in Swaziland a week ago. He pulled out
in protest at being
granted last-minute temporary travel documents instead
of a
passport.
Motlanthe and Mbeki will fly to Harare this
morning to
join the leaders of Swaziland, Angola and the Democratic Republic
of Congo.
They will meet Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, Tsvangirai and
the leader
of a smaller MDC faction, Arthur
Mutambara.
The MDC says there's no agreement on the
allocation of
more than 10 ministries. The ruling Zanu-PF party claims only
one, the Home
Affairs portfolio, is in dispute.
There is hope that Zimbabwe's rival parties will finally
reach agreement on
the distribution of Cabinet portfolios today.
http://tvnz.co.nz
Oct 27, 2008 5:52 PM
Southern African leaders meet in Harare
on Monday to try to salvage a
power-sharing deal between President Robert
Mugabe and opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai, and rescue Zimbabwe's
economy from free-fall.
Political analysts say the chances of the
regional summit breaking an
impasse over the allocation of cabinet posts
depends on how much pressure
the Southern African Development Community
(SADC) can put on Mugabe and
Tsvangirai to compromise.
Tsvangirai
defeated Mugabe in a presidential election on March 29 but by too
few votes
to avoid a run-off in June, which Mugabe won unopposed after
Tsvangirai
pulled out, saying his supporters had been subjected to violence
and
intimidation.
Mugabe and Tsvangirai signed an agreement to form a unity
government on
September 15 under the mediation of former South African
President Thabo
Mbeki, but this has stalled over a dispute over the
allocation of key
ministerial departments.
Weeks of negotiations
failed to break the impasse and the rival leaders
agreed that the SADC
should convene an emergency summit on the dispute.
Tsvangirai, leader of
the main Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
opposition group, boycotted
the first summit in Swaziland a week ago, saying
Mugabe's government had
refused to grant him a passport and instead gave him
only an emergency
travel document to attend the talks.
On Monday, Tsvangirai will join
Mugabe, Arthur Mutambara of a smaller MDC
faction, Mbeki and leaders from
South Africa, Swaziland, Angola and the
Democratic Republic of Congo at the
rescheduled summit in Harare.
Tsvangirai, set to become prime minister if
a power-sharing government takes
office - says he will not be bullied into
an administration in which he will
have little authority.
He accuses
Mugabe of trying to make him a junior partner with control over
less
important ministries.
In turn, Mugabe's ZANU-PF accuses Tsvangirai of
seeking a power transfer,
not a power-sharing arrangement, and of stalling
the talks to try to drag in
the United Nations to mediate.
"It's
50-50"
"On the face of it, you get an impression there will be no deal,
but it's a
50-50 affair," said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the National
Constitutional Assembly, a political pressure group.
"I think both
parties realise that the region, and that many Zimbabweans
want some kind of
settlement," he told Reuters.
"But the greater pressure will be on
Tsvangirai because many SADC leaders
believe that Mugabe has already climbed
down low enough."
In the past Mugabe, who is 84 and has been Zimbabwe's
sole ruler since its
independence from Britain in 1980, has vowed that
Tsvangirai will never get
near power.
Mugabe dismisses Tsvangirai as
a "pathetic Western puppet" while the
56-year-old opposition chief calls him
a "raving old man with nothing to
offer".
John Makumbe, a veteran
political commentator and Mugabe critic, said
Monday's meeting would fail if
SADC leaders resorted to their traditional
support for Mugabe.
"It is
Mugabe who needs pressure not Tsvangirai, and it is the people of
Zimbabwe
and the Zimbabwe economy who need the support of SADC to survive,"
Makumbe
said.
Political analysts say the September 15 power-sharing agreement is
Zimbabwe's best hope for rescuing an economy in free-fall, with fuel and
food in scarce supply while inflation stands at 231 million percent.
Monday, 27 October 2008
|
In the seven weeks since the signing of a power-sharing agreement in Harare, the poisonous relationship between Zimbabwe's political parties has continued to sour. What some hailed as a "miracle" has stalled over the allocation of cabinet portfolios between Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). A regional summit on the deadlock is due to open on Monday in Harare as power sharing for President Mugabe so far does not extend to giving the prime minister designate - MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai - freedom of movement. Having spent the last few years canvassing support abroad, Mr Tsvangirai's passport ran out of pages earlier this year and the Zimbabwean immigration authorities are refusing to give him a new one.
Such is the toxic atmosphere that an issue that had previously just been an irritant to the MDC has become a major obstacle to further talks. The MDC refused to attend a regional meeting in Swaziland last week unless this was resolved. "The denial of that passport is a symptom of the real problem in Zimbabwe," said MDC Secretary General Tendai Biti. "Despite the Global Political Agreement on 15 September there is no readiness on the part of Zanu-PF to enter into co-operative government with Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC." 'Go to hell' In the week that followed the breakdown of former South African President Thabo Mbeki's latest negotiations in Harare, a copy of the facilitation document was leaked to the press. It contains Mr Mbeki's proposals to the parties and is a revealing insight into what the mediator regards as a fair deal.
When Mr Mugabe unilaterally announced his cabinet the opposition condemned it as "a power grab, not power sharing". Those words were echoed by EU foreign ministers, but Mr Mbeki's proposals only differ slightly from Mr Mugabe's list. Just two ministerial allocations have been changed. The finance ministry was awarded to the MDC, while home affairs - and control of the police - was to be shared. Twenty-seven ministries were listed in the paper with each party given a stake in so-called "priory sectors". It may have looked fair on first reading but Mr Mbeki made no mention of four ministries that Zanu-PF have also claimed for themselves. They are not insignificant: defense (and with it control of the army), justice, information and foreign affairs.
The MDC has never had much confidence in Mr Mbeki as mediator and one source said that following these proposals they had informed the former South African president that he could "go to hell". In that light, it is of little surprise that those four days of talks failed to move the process forward. "It says a lot about Thabo Mbeki's own ideology and the way he sees democracy in the African context," Zimbabwean analyst Immanuel Hlabangana says. "You can see a man who struggles with Western ideologies and is trying to champion something different for Africa." The MDC now talk about Mr Mbeki in the past tense, but his spokesman, Mukoni Ratshitanga, dismissed queries about whether his mediation would continue. While stressing that they remain committed to the 15 September agreement, the MDC now say both the spirit and wording of the deal have changed since they were first initialled. Hot debate Three full days passed between the announcement of a deal and the signing ceremony. During that time the MDC say a number of small but significant changes were made to the publically released text. These included an increase in the number of non-constituent senators given to the smaller MDC faction and the removal of a promise that MDC and Zanu-PF would have to agree on ambassadorial appointments.
The meaning of the word "consultation" in the document is also being hotly debated. Under the terms of the agreement President Mugabe is entitled to allocate cabinet portfolios after "consultation" with other parties. Much to the MDC's annoyance, Zanu-PF are interpreting that to mean that after discussions, Mr Mugabe decides. "We have had a big quarrel over the meaning of the word consultation," Mr Biti said. "As far as us negotiators are concerned, whenever the word consultation appears in the agreement it means in agreement with the prime minister." For different reasons neither Zanu-PF nor the MDC want to be the one to walk away from this agreement. "If the MDC do walk away they risk being seen as a weak party and not understanding the African context," Mr Hlabangana says. "For Zanu-PF this deal provides an opportunity for them to stay in power and keeps them from prosecution." But with prospects appearing bleak, thoughts are beginning to turn to what will happen next. The MDC has called for an extraordinary summit of all southern African leaders but is now openly talking about new elections. Last week Botswana, Mr Mugabe's sternest critic in the region, called for a re-run of the 27 June presidential election. If that was to happen the big question would be whether the violence that
forced Mr Tsvangirai to pull out in June could be avoided.
|
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
Shops in Zimbabwe are refusing to accept
the local currency after it
depreciated at its fastest ever rate at the
weekend.
By Peta Thornycroft in Harare and Sebastien Berger
Last
Updated: 8:57PM GMT 26 Oct 2008
While millions of Zimbabweans are already
going hungry, the move by
supermarket owners, who have few goods available
for customers to buy, has
added to the hardship experienced by the urban
population.
Most do not have access to foreign currency, such as US
dollars or the South
African rand, now demanded by shopkeepers for
payment.
A sign outside a supermarket in Harare's wealthy northern
suburbs informed
the public on Sunday that, like many other shops, it would
not accept
cheques or debit cards, because they take too long to clear while
the
Zimbabwe dollar plunges hourly.
Weeping with frustration, a
well-dressed woman fled the shop in tears as she
was left unable to buy
anything, despite having amassed Z$14 billion for her
weekly shop. But even
cash was useless, and the shop manager told her he was
only accepting US
dollars.
"I felt really terrible telling her this, she is a good
customer, a really
nice person, but it is too difficult to sell in local
currency," he said.
"We don't know how to mark up goods as the Zimbabwe
dollar is worthless
now."
All his goods except meat and most
vegetables were imported from South
Africa and, with 75 per cent tax,
payable in foreign currency to the
government slapped on every item, many
basic items cost four to five times
as much as south of the border, even
with a relatively low mark-up.
"I don't even know the rate for the Zim
dollar as it changes by the hour,"
he said. "We have no alternative but to
try and stay alive by charging in
US. I am really feeling the strain and I
can see customers, and many are old
friends, are suffering. Some of them
used to be quite well off."
The country's hyperinflation is driven by the
central bank creating ever
more money to fund the government's activities.
Even though the authorities
chopped 10 zeroes off the currency in August,
its interventions and
regulations have created a bewildering array of
black-market exchange rates.
For cash notes, which the price rises mean
are in appallingly short supply
despite the printing presses working
overtime, on Sunday £1 was worth around
Z$110,000. But for cheque transfers,
£1 brought anywhere from Z$8 billion to
Z$32billion.
At independence
in 1980, the Zimbabwe dollar was worth more than the US
dollar, but Robert
Mugabe's regime has destroyed the economy, with the slide
accelerating in
recent years, months and weeks.
John Robertson, an independent economist,
said the Zimbabwe dollar's current
plunge was unprecedented. "We had seen it
losing value at about 25 per cent
a day, now it is losing hundreds of per
cent an hour. It is now a valueless
currency."
A Zimbabwean
businessman said: "The Reserve Bank is looting, that is what
caused this
end-of-game crash. The Zim dollar lost three zeroes in a week.
Now you can
fly from Harare to Victoria Falls for US 20 cents."
For ordinary
Zimbabweans life has become almost impossible. Bank cash
withdrawals are
limited to a maximum Z$50,000 a day - enough to buy two
bananas from street
vendors, who are still selling in the local currency,
but 0.000625p at the
cheque rate.
Companies are only allowed Z$10,000, or half a banana in
street value.
Shops have begun refusing to accept Zimbabwean dollars in
any form.
A businessman said: "When supermarkets have to start paying
their workers in
US dollars they will have to close. When the civil servants
demand foreign
currency wages, then that will be the end of the road for
Mugabe."
Southern African leaders meanwhile meet in Harare on Monday for
an emergency
summit on Zimbabwe's political stalemate. Mr Mugabe, the
opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai and the former South African president
Thabo Mbeki will
discuss implementing a power-sharing agreement, although
hopes for progress
are slim.
http://news.yahoo.com/
2 hrs 32 mins ago
HARARE
(AFP) - Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF chief negotiator in the power-sharing
talks
issued a stark warning to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai ahead of
key
talks Monday on a unity government.
"If Tsvangirai does not stop
campaigning for sanctions against Zimbabwe to
further cripple the country's
economy, then we are headed for trouble,"
Patrick Chinamasa told
AFP.
And he warned Tsvangirai against a boycott of the talks, after he
failed to
attend last Monday's meeting of the Southern African Development
Community
(SADC) in Swaziland.
"We trust that Tsvangirai will not
treat Monday's troika meeting with the
same contempt and utter disrespect
that he did with the Swaziland meeting,"
Another boycott by him will
irreversibly strain ZANU-PF's patience and will
be the last straw that broke
the camel's back," said Chinamasa.
Tsvangirai stayed away from the SADC
meeting in protest at the government's
failure to issue him a passport. This
obliges him to seek emergency travel
documents, valid for a single trip,
each time he leaves the country.
The southern African leaders agreed to
hold new talks between the rivals in
Harare this Monday in the hope of
salvaging an agreement on power-sharing
between ZANU-PF and Tsvangirai's
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Despite his warning Chinamasa
added: "With respect to prospects of Monday's
meeting we are cautiously
optimistic that the meeting will yield a positive
outcome."
Monday's
talks are aimed at breaking the stalemate over the allocation of
key cabinet
ministers between the two parties in a unity government, which
in principle
had been agreed in a power-sharing deal on September 15.
The deal,
brokered by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, was hailed
as a
breakthrough in ending months of political deadlock and long-term
economic
melt-down in the former regional breadbasket.
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=6439
October 26, 2008
By Our
Correspondent
BULAWAYO - A councillor representing the mainstream MDC
party led by Morgan
Tsvangirai in the Gokwe-Kana constituency in the
Midlands Province has fled
his rural home after Zanu-PF militants led by a
traditional chief raided his
homestead on Thursday.
Richard Gwenhamo,
councillor for Ward 27 in Musala area in the constituency,
said a group
about 15 Zanu-PF youths led by Chief George Musala and the
former Zanu-PF
councillor for the ward, Sizane Zhou, raided his homestead on
Thursday
night.
He accused them of stealing property which included several
chickens while
he was away attending a funeral in a neighbouring
village.
Gwenhamo says his home was raided two days after he clashed with
Zanu-PF
supporters and the ward coordinator, Patrick Takawira over the
politicization of food aid at the distribution point at the Musala Business
Centre where opposition MDC supporters were being denied grain.
"I
was attending a funeral in a nearby village when Chief Musala, together
with
the former Zanu-PF councillor of my ward, Sizane Zhou, came with more
than
15 Zanu-PF youths to my homestead holding axes, knobkerries and
machetes
while looking for me," said Gwenhamo.
"My wife angered them when she told
them I was not around resulting in them
stealing my property including
chickens. Before they left, they told my wife
that they had since suspended
me from being a councillor as they had lost
confidence in
me."
Gwenhamo was speaking to the Zimbabwe Times at the MDC Bulawayo
regional
offices where he fled and sought refuge.
"Two days before my
home was raided by Chief Musala and the Zanu-PF
militias," he said, "I had
visited the GMB depot at Musala Business Centre
to inquire about reports
that the ward coordinator Takawira had engaged some
Zanu-PF supporters to
distribute maize to people in my ward without my
knowledge and that
suspected MDC supporters were being denied maize grain on
political party
grounds."
The MDC has said that despite the ongoing power-sharing talks
with Zanu-PF,
President Robert Mugabe's regime has continued to harass
arrest and
intimidate opposition supporters and human rights
activists.
Leaders of a women's militant pressure group, the Women of
Zimbabwe Arise
(WOZA), Jenni Williams and Magodonga Mahlangu are currently
languishing in
remand prison without trial.
The two were arrested in
Bulawayo last week for demonstrating against the
slow implementation of the
power-sharing deal and the continuous violation
of human rights by Mugabe's
militant followers.
The Times
October 27, 2008
This
long-suffering country urgently needs a unilateral airdrop of food and
medical supplies
Michael Holman
Most crises blow over. A few blow up.
But one or two live in our memories,
scars on the conscience of a world that
had knowledge of tragedy, the
capacity to intervene, yet failed to
act.
Zimbabwe is no Rwanda. Not yet. But after enduring years of Robert
Mugabe's
thuggery, it has another cross to bear. The country is weeks away
from what
could become a catastrophe. Already more than two million people
need food
aid in what, say officials, is a "very, very serious" situation,
after the
collapse of commercial agriculture in the wake of Mr Mugabe's
confiscation
of white-owned farms. By early next year famine could threaten
the lives of
some five million people - nearly half the
population.
Yet Zimbabwe's agony is all but buried under the
international avalanche of
bad financial tidings. But one suspects that the
country is out of the
headlines for another reason. The international
community has turned away,
well aware that horror may be imminent, but
reduced to embarrassed silence
by its failure to act
decisively.
Every now and then, however, there comes a point in a crisis
where the scale
and duration of the suffering become too much to ignore.
Conscience is
pricked, and a hitherto bemused world wakes to demand
action.
That point has surely been reached in Zimbabwe, where the
testimony of a
nurse in the front line (who of necessity must remain
anonymous) suggests
that her country has reached the end of its tether. She
has spent 30 years
serving its people, and now helps to run a city hospital.
But never in all
that time has she felt such painful frustration at the
sheer scale of the
agony unfolding. And it is coupled with anger at what she
sees as the
bureaucracy of a leading international aid agency in the face of
pleas from
the desperately needy.
Applicants for help from the UN
World Food Programme (WFP), she writes in an
e-mail, "are meant to declare
how many are in their households, how many are
disabled, how many are
chronically ill".
Food for the starving is available, she says, held in
the local compounds of
the WFP, ready for distribution. But first, insist
officials, comes the
paperwork: tick the right boxes on two vital forms, and
you qualify for
help. Give the "wrong" answers and you will almost certainly
starve.
"Just how," she asks, "does the head of a child-headed household
[an all too
common phenomenon in a country decimated by Aids] get into
contact with
people who have the questionnaires? We have had people in their
hundreds
coming to our doors and pleading for food.
"Please, whoever
is responsible for all the bureaucracy, end this expensive
time-wasting
exercise. We plead with you to start getting the food out of
the warehouses
to the people who are hungry."
One can sympathise with the WFP position:
that in time of acute need scarce
resources must be safely stored, and
criteria for their release drawn up and
observed. Nor should the delicate
nature of a relief agency's balancing act
be underestimated: for how long
should it abide by an agreement with a
noxious regime, in which restrictions
on relief operations have been
reluctantly accepted, in the belief that the
lifesaving role it plays
outweighs all else?
The evidence of the
nurse and others, however, suggests that whatever the
terms, the deal is not
working. In her city, youngsters beg for food at the
hospital gates. In the
country, many Zimbabweans are reduced to eating roots
in the worst- hit
areas, according to a BBC report last week.
This leads to an obvious
conclusion: conventional means of supply and
distribution are not enough.
Zimbabwe urgently requires the unprecedented: a
unilateral airdrop of food
and medical supplies.
The means are within reach. Giant Hercules
aircraft, of the sort used by the
UN in Ethiopia and Sudan, could be based
in neighbouring Botswana, where
President Khama has shown he is willing to
stand up to Robert Mugabe.
True, in the all too likely absence of
government consent, the airlifted
supplies would reach a fraction of those
in need; and the dropping points
would be arbitrary. But not a single life
need be lost in the conduct of the
operation, and many thousands would be
saved.
Readers may recall a passage from Albert Camus' The Plague. The
Algerian
town of Oran is isolated, cut off from the world by the dreadful
pestilence
it endures, and at night the local doctor reflects: "From the
ends of the
Earth, across thousands of miles of land and sea, kindly,
well-meaning
speakers tried to voice their fellow feeling, and indeed did
do, but at the
same time proved the utter incapacity of every man truly to
share in
suffering which he cannot see... 'Oran, we are with you', they
called
emotionally. But not, Dr Rieux told himself, to love or die together
- and
that's the only way. They're too remote."
Zimbabwe is indeed a
long way away. But it is not so remote that we cannot
demonstrate our
compassion, as well as our outrage, in a form that provides
some relief to
its people - even if we cannot truly share in their dreadful
ordeal. If not
an airdrop now, when? And if not an airdrop, what?
Michael Holman, a
former Africa editor of the Financial Times, grew up in
Zimbabwe. His latest
novel is Fatboy and the Dancing Ladies (Abacus)
http://www.talkzimbabwe.com
Floyd Nkomo
Mon, 27
Oct 2008 00:15:00 +0000
A BOOMING fake United States dollar trade is
taking place at the
Zimbabwe-South Africa border and notes worth thousands
could have already
found their way into Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe Guardian has
learnt.
A Bulawayo man who frequently travels to South Africa told this
reporter
that he was offered fake US dollars with a face value of US$40 000,
on at
least two occasions, by a man believed to be of West African origin on
the
South African side of the border.
The Bulawayo man who wanted to
be identified only as Mr Dube said he
frequently comes across these fake
currency dealers and has, at least one
time, seen people smuggle fake US
dollars into the country.
"I have been approached at least four times
this month by men selling fake
US dollars. They are selling fake notes with
a value of US$10,000 for almost
a tenth of that amount. So for US$1,000 you
could walk away with ten times
that amount," said Mr Dube to this
reporter.
"If you were just a common person on the street, these notes
look very
authentic and you would need special equipment to detect the
security marks
on the notes, like pens and infra-red light."
Dube,
who runs a business in Bulawayo, says he travels at least once a week
to
South Africa where his wife lives and works and often brings groceries
and
clothes to sell back in Zimbabwe.
He said most of the fake note dealers
are very sophisticated conmen who
spend days watching people cross to and
from South Africa and only approach
you if they are sure that you are a
frequent visitor.
"They seem to have details of how and when you have
travelled to and from
South Africa and armed with this information, they
normally offer you a deal
you will find hard to refuse."
Nigerians
are said to be the main dealers although Zimbabweans living in
South Africa
are said to be involved in the fake currency deals as well.
.
Mr Dube
believes that corrupt immigration officials on both sides could be
aware of
the illegal deals and could be involved as well.
He said because some of
these officials want to make a "quick buck" they let
some of these
unscrupulous characters "get away with it". He argued that
frequent visitors
to South Africa will get approached at least once by these
"men in black"
and the authorities should therefore be aware of this
dealing.
"These
men are normally dressed in black and look like very professional
people.
They have beautiful cars and expensive suits and are quite
conspicuous from
the rest of us," said Nkomo.
"The authorities should be aware of these
characters. They spent long hours
at the border. How could officials not
know about their existence when
common people like me know they exist?
Everyone wants to make a quick buck
that's why these people get away with
it."
Mr Dube said that many Zimbabweans would buy these fake notes and
use them
to buy groceries in Zimbabwe and exchange them on the Black market.
He said
that because these notes look authentic, many people on the streets
and in
shops do not know the difference between the real ones and the fake
ones and
"because they use both fakes and real ones at the same time, it is
difficult
to detect them."
Quizzed by this reporter on how he knew so
much about this illegal activity,
Mr Dube was evasive and said he was
quickly said he was not at liberty to
say if he knew anyone who had been
involved in the illegal activity.
He, however, said that many travellers
to South Africa needed at to
demonstrate that they had at least R2,000 to
get a visa and this was a way
of getting hold of that amount.
http://www.eddiecross.africanherd.com/
If
this were a John Wayne movie we would be about to see the good guy walk
down
the main street against the bad guys who were going to confront him and
to
try to ambush him from the side streets and buildings. Morgan has agreed
to
attend the SADC summit on Monday and the stakes could not be higher.
It
has puzzled us as to why the bad guys had delayed this confrontation. We
now
know that they had hoped to be able to spring a surprise election on the
MDC
rather than face the prospect of their man (Mugabe) having to face our
man
(Tsvangirai) in direct combat on the street. A shadowy group, listed in
a
fascinating article by Charamba in last weekends Herald newspaper, has
been
attempting to engineer a snap election using the mechanism that was put
in
place for the June run off that ended so disastrously for Zanu PF. More
than
most commentators, they had recognised the dangers to them of the SADC
brokered agreement.
This attempt spluttered out when they realised
that the new South African
government would not tolerate that option - it
was only one better than the
option of a military coup and in regional terms
simply not acceptable. While
they quibbled and played for time, what they
did not appreciate was that the
ship on which they were standing was in fact
sinking. The consequences of
their own actions are destroying the very
foundations of the system on which
they rely for continued power and
sustenance.
The most obvious symptom of this process is the rapid
collapse of the
Zimbabwe currency. Issued just three months ago at parity
with the Rand and
7 to 1 with the US dollar, yesterday it traded at billions
to one US dollar
and there seemed to be no bottom to the pit in which it was
sinking. It has
become virtually impossible to trade in the local currency
and I would not
be surprised if people simply stop trading.
There are
signs that the South Africans are at last prepared to insist on a
deal on
Monday. The reasons are many but in my view the following are the
principle
elements in this change of heart.
The first, and possibly the most
important is the change of leadership in
South Africa. Mbeki has been
consigned to a retirement home and the new
leadership - Kegalema Motlanthe
and Jacob Zuma are hardly friends of Robert
Mugabe. The new President of
South Africa was the leader of a Cosatu
delegation to Zimbabwe that was
hauled off a South African airplane about
three years ago, pushed into a
minibus and driven to the Beitbridge border
post where they were deported
and had to be collected by a car sent up from
Johannesburg.
Last week
Zuma and Motlanthe both made statements calling for a speedy
resolution of
the Zimbabwe crisis by the completion of the process of
forming a new
government. South Africa is the only country in the world with
the power to
tell Mugabe what he may or may not do. If they decide that the
time has come
for a solution, a solution will be found. They are probably
quite happy that
such a solution was not secured under Mbeki's watch as the
two ANC groups
are now engaged in their own struggle in South Africa.
The second reason
is one that has been there for a long time, but has been
made more relevant
and pressing by recent events. It is the regional
implications of the
economic collapse in Zimbabwe.
Of all the consequences of this collapse,
the one most directly affecting
the South African government are the tens of
thousands of people who are
pouring over the border into the crowded
squatter camps that surround every
City. It is visible on every street
corner and every person living in South
Africa pays a price for this
unwanted invasion. Given the present situation
in Zimbabwe, if a deal is not
reached on Monday the stream of people fleeing
to South Africa will become a
floodtide that could simply swamp their
delicate democracy.
The next
is the impact on regional business sentiment and international
confidence in
African leadership and enterprise. The Rand fell to 12 to 1
yesterday -
losing over half its value in a few days. The stock market has
also lost
half its value over the past 3 months. I know the reasons for this
are the
international credit crunch and its consequences but it does not
help to be
seen in a region of possible political and economic instability
on top of
everything else. A deal in Zimbabwe might actually help the South
Africans
to defend themselves against the rising tide of global recession
that now
seems unstoppable.
Adding to this situation is the growing evidence of
the criminal nature of
the regime in Zimbabwe. We are engaged in every
possible activity of a
criminal nature in the region. Nothing illustrates
that more than the
illegal diamond trade. In recent weeks the Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe has been
offloading raw diamonds on the international market in
large quantities,
these carry false certificates of origin and are from
Angola, the Congo and
the newly discovered Maranke diamond fields in eastern
Zimbabwe. The
proceeds of this trade are not being returned to Zimbabwe and
add to the
increasing flow of funds being siphoned out of the country by a
frightened
oligarchy that now knows their days are numbered. This illicit
trade
constitutes a threat to both South African and Botswana interests as
it
violates the Kimberly Process.
Back home, the regime has paid the
civil service for the month of October. I
understand the Police were paid
Z$100 000. When you know that it will take
days to draw that kind of money
out of the Bank and that bread is now Z$50
000 a loaf and the real value of
their salaries is less than 0,000007 of a
US cent, you can understand why
the regime cannot rely on the military or
the police for protection. Prices
are doubling daily now and no one is able
to survive on local currency or a
salary.
So Monday may be "D" day - decision time for us and disaster time
for them.
If a deal is done and we get a new government it will take a few
days to
appoint ministers and then get going but at least then we will at
last be
able to tackle the many urgent problems that we have inherited from
28 years
of tyrannical and corrupt rule.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo,
25th October 2008
http://www.businessday.co.za
27
October 2008
Dianna
Games
AFTER
listening to a team of financial experts from Harare talking about the
Zimbabwean economy last week, a South African business man remarked to me:
"It's nothing short of surreal."
The experts presented a
seminar at the JSE with an array of figures, in
which the word "quintillion"
was not the rarity one would expect.
The team was less than two
hours' flight from Harare and yet they may as
well have been talking about
another planet, highlighting just how
disconnected South African business
people are from the dire situation being
experienced by their
neighbours.
It is more common to hear South African commentators'
opinions about
Zimbabwe's economy than those of Zimbabweans
themselves.
As one speaker said, you cannot really understand
hyperinflation except by
living in it. Although the "official" rate is given
as 231-million percent,
the year-on-year compounded estimate is about
18-trillion percent.
Jonathan Waters, a Harare-based analyst, says
once inflation went over
10000%, the figure no longer mattered to
Zimbabweans. They set up their
"individual procurement programmes" and began
to micromanage their lives.
As the seminar progressed, the currency
tumbled by millions of (Zimbabwe)
dollars, inflation added a few zeroes and
the price of goods in Harare
quadrupled.
Sean Gammon, MD of Imara
Capital Zimbabwe, estimated the value of the
economy at US$3bn, down from
$13bn in 1998. Without the politically inspired
"lost decade", it could have
been at $30bn, he reckoned.
Doug Munatsi, CEO of the regional
institution, the African Banking
Corporation, said money supply in 1998 was
US$3,25bn and was now less than
US$50m.
Greg Hunter, CEO of
Central African Gold, outlined the serious problems in
the gold mining
sector. He said gold companies received only US$0,06/oz (at
a government
exchange rate in Zimbabwe dollars) for their gold compared with
the
international market price of more than US$850/oz. This was against
operating costs of about $4000/oz.
Hunter reckoned the
gold industry was operating at below 5% of capacity,
with production at only
three to four to n s a year, compared with 25 tons a
few years
ago.
The obvious question is why - and how - companies continue to
operate in a
country running on empty. The answer, business people say, is
simple. By
holding the line, they are effectively investing in the future,
not the
present. They are positioning themselves for change. The fact that
this
change is taking longer than anyone expected simply means further
downscaling of companies already operating at only 5% to 20% of capacity.
The cost of getting back in, particularly in the mining sector, is likely to
be high.
On the bright side, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE)
continues to run at
record levels. Stocks rise - and occasionally fall - by
hundreds and even
thousands of percent daily.
The market is
driven mostly by trapped domestic savings trying to maintain
value in
equities. Only 2% of trading on the ZSE is by foreigners, down from
30% in
1998.
Although negative macroeconomic fundamentals are driving the
market, there
is still real value in many Zimbabwe companies. They have good
business
models, modest capital needs, experienced management and assets
that, while
outdated, could be refurbished at a fraction of the replacement
cost.
Most sectors have turnaround strategies in place. They
are being held back
by the politicians.
Investing in Zimbabwe
right now is cheap and hyperinflation is making it
cheaper by the
day.
An exception is the bar bill. The price of a beer goes up by
several million
dollars from one drink to the next. So when you are next in
Harare hunting
for bargain basement investments, make sure you buy the first
round.
*Games is CE of Africa@Work, a research and consulting company,
which
presented last week's seminar Zimbabwe: The New Investment
Frontier.
http://www.thezimbabwetimes.com/?p=6468
October 26, 2008
(A lighter
perspective on what could be a historic day, but is unlikely to
be).
By Geoffrey Nyarota
IF I WAS President Robert Mugabe of
Zimbabwe there is a host of measures I
would put in place to ensure that a
solid foundation is laid for the
long-awaited recovery of Zimbabwe from its
current economic quagmire and
political turbulence.
It is regrettable
that President Mugabe has routinely spurned the many words
of advice
tendered by a host of advisors, many of them freelance like
myself. Looking
back now, he has neglected their words of admonition at his
own peril,
however.
On Friday, October 17, while preparing to fly down to Mbabane
for yet
another round of SADC sponsored negotiations on the future of
Zimbabwe, I
would have summoned Dr Misheck Sibanda, the Secretary to the
President and
Cabinet and Munyaradzi Kajese the Chief of Protocol to the
presidential
office.
"Cde Sibanda," I would have started, "as you are
aware I depart for Mbabane
again on Monday. Now there is this most irksome
issue of the travel
documents of the Prime Minister-designate, Cde
Tsvangirai, which has now
become a veritable albatross around our
neck.
"The press outside our own patriotic media empire has repeatedly
reported
that Cde Tobaira Mudede, the Registrar General, says there is a
shortage of
the special paper on which to issue a passport for Cde
Tsvangirai. But, of
course that explanation is wearing embarrassingly thin
and turning Cde
Mudede into a laughing stock, even among our own Zanu-PF
supporters.
"Our detractors now refer to our self-indulgence on our
recent trip to New
York. They point out, quite rightly, that if we could
spend millions in
United States dollars to send such a large delegation to
the United Nations,
failing to buy paper on which to issue passports for the
people, including
Cde Tsvangirai, merely reflects our failure to get our
priorities right.
"In any case, I am informed that Cde Mudede has been
issuing passports to
all and sundry and making a killing in foreign
currency. He now charges in
US dollars for the passports, apparently. It
appears Cde Mudede would make a
more astute Governor of the Reserve Bank
than the now much stressed Cde
Gideon. My point here is that the people know
that we are issuing passports
to others while denying one to Cde Tsvangirai.
In fact, Cde Bonyongwe at CIO
must investigate who revealed to the press
that Cde Tsvangirai's passport
was issued back in July but has been sitting
here on my desk.
"So that explanation about the unavailability of paper
makes us appear
somewhat silly, which if the truth be told, we have become,
at least with
regard to this issue passports.
"The following is my
proposal for a solution to this vexing problem. This
solution will not only
solve the problem of Cde Tsvangirai's passport, but
will also make us appear
both smart and magnanimous.
"Cde Kajese I don't know whether you had
already filled all the seats on the
presidential flight to Mbabane on Sunday
with Zanu-PF delegates. If this had
already been done, you will simply have
to create a few more enemies at
Party Headquarters by removing some names
from the passenger list to
accommodate members of the MDC delegations - both
MDC-T and MDC-M.
"That way we will strengthen our credentials while
improving the image of
Zanu-PF and therefore strengthening our hand at the
negotiating table. If
Cde Tsvangirai and the astute Mutambara were to emerge
from the presidential
flight on arrival at Matshapa International Airport,
that would be a scoop
for us.
"Our shrewd strategy should effectively
compromise Cde Tsvangirai at the
negotiating table.
"It does look
mean of us to leave these two delegations to fly on commercial
flights
through OR Tambo International in Johannesburg while we fly direct
to
Mbabane on the presidential flight. We unwittingly enhance their profile
as
fighters against alleged oppression and harassment.
"Flying with our
rivals on our plane will generate much goodwill for us. Who
knows, if our
seats were to be strategically positioned on the outward
flight the
juxtaposition of Cde Tsvangirai and myself could create an ideal
atmosphere
for a deal to be struck between the two us long before touch-down
at
Matshapa.
"I must confess that I feel an overwhelming sense of
humiliation to have
young Mswati improve his own image among his many
spouses as the one who
presided over the summit where an acceptable deal was
finally struck to end
the political deadlock in Zimbabwe. Why, I could teach
that young Mswati a
few useful political lessons.
"To be honest, we
are beginning to look no smarter than a class of clueless
Grade Five
pupils."
Having obtained confirmation from Kajese that the necessary
arrangements
would be made for the Tsvangirai and the Mutambara delegations
to join us on
the presidential flight to Mbabane, with or without travel
documents - for
which immigration official could turn Tsvangirai back while
King Mswati III
was waiting to welcome him outside - I would turn to Part
Two of the grand
scheme.
I would instruct Sibanda to summon Emmerson
Mnangagwa and the JOC - sounds
rather like the name of a latter-day
Zimbabwean heavy rock band.
Predictably, Mnangagwa former Minister of
Rural Housing would be the first
to arrive at State House on the Saturday
morning, having abandoned at the
last minute a trip to the Midlands. Unknown
to him I am fully briefed that
he is fighting tooth and nail to have the
name of a school restored to
Emmerson Mnangagwa School. The school was
originally named in his honour.
But as his political fortunes plummeted
precipitously the community
concerned unanimously agreed to rename their
school as Runde School.
Of course, Cde Emmerson was livid.
Next to
arrive is Paradzayi Zimondi, Director of Prisons. I stretch my hand
full
length to shake his. Secretly, I have always wondered how he ever rose
to
these dizzy heights. For some reason, he can never look me straight in
the
eye. He is thorough, though, where the prompt incarceration of political
malcontents in appropriately deterrent conditions is
concerned.
Almost immediately, into the main lounge of State House
saunters Defence
Forces commander, General Constantine Dominic Chiwenga,
with army supremo
Phillip Sibanda in tow. My eye does not miss the detail
that Chiwenga's walk
is less sprightly than it was when he last visited here
for my
inauguration - an auspicious sign for the bombshell I am about to
drop.
After a long wait Air Marshall Perrence Shiri of the Air Force and
Happyton
Bonyongwe of the Central Intelligence Organisation dash in together
with
almost indecent haste. Shiri is sweating profusely. I must confess,
despite
the crucial position that he holds, I don't know too detail much
about the
latter. Mind you, there has been an exceedingly high turn-over of
directors
at CIO. Then there were those unfortunate reports just before the
March
elections that he was trying to hand the entire organisation over to
Cde
Simba Makoni.
With everybody now sitting around the huge coffee
table in the lounge, cup
of coffee in hand, I don't beat about the
bush.
"Comrades," I say while fixing my gaze on Chiwenga, "If you have
been
visiting the Zimbabwean online websites, as Cde George Charamba
enjoined you
to do recently, you will be aware that I am off to Mbabane
again tomorrow
for yet another summit of the SADC Troika on Politics,
Defence and Security
Cooperation.
"This time the delegation includes
Cde Emmerson as a representative of this
very important forum.
"I
will be forthright, Comrades. We all know that we survived the March
elections by the skin of our collective tooth, as it were. I am most
grateful to you, comrades, that you heroically and patriotically engineered
the series of events that culminated in the landslide victory that ensured
that we can continue to meet in State House, as we do today. But, dear
comrades, we delude ourselves if we believe we fooled anyone. We stand more
discredited and friendless today than we were back in March. To be quite
honest, nothing functions properly, if at all, now and Zimbabwe staggers on
without a government.
"Meanwhile, support for Tsvangirai continues to
mount. Our own supporters
now flock to his rallies where ever the MDC
organises one. Even the astute
young Professor appears to be gravitating
towards him.
"Cde Gono has stopped pretending that the economy has
anything but finally
collapsed. Can you believe that he has rendered even
the US dollar
worthless. The people now need US$15 to buy a dozen eggs at
Mbare Musika. In
New York they buy a dozen eggs for $1,99. I am informed the
our enterprising
forgers now produce US dollars. I am informed that the son
of one of you has
become an accomplished counterfeiter of Zimbabwe dollar
notes. I hear one of
the online publications in now investigating him. We
made a terrible blunder
when we fired the indomitable Cde Jonathan Moyo. He
would have silenced the
online publications by now.
"As for Cde Gono,
if the truth be told, the poor governor now runs around
like a decapitated
chicken.
"We are cornered, comrades. We must be man enough to accept that
we have led
ourselves up a cul de sac. What I say about Bush and Blair,
sorry, Brown is
merely for public consumption.
"What I am about to
say is not an appeal to you. Take this as an order. No
meaningful progress
can be made at the negotiations if we insist that all of
you retain your
positions. I am not in any way, whatsoever, suggesting that
you be
sacrificed. No. But our best strategy now would be to negotiate so
that
there is no wholesale retribution against Comrades Chiwenga and Chihuri
after you step down. Negotiation is a process of give and take.
"If
we don't bite the bullet and take the initiative now, force of
circumstances
will ultimately prescribe unbearably bitter medicine for us.
"For a
change, comrades, let us stop thinking only of our own short term
interests.
Let us consider the interests of our nation, of all our people.
Comrades, no
one among you is a poor man. We will ensure that nothing is
taken away from
you.
"I had not exactly scheduled any debate for this meeting. So I wish
you all
a good weekend. Cde Emmerson, I will see you at the airport
tomorrow."
Meanwhile, if I was Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement
for Democratic
Change and Prime Minister-designate of Zimbabwe I would have
accepted the
emergency travel document from Tobaiwa Mudede, the Registrar
General, and
flown to Mbabane through Johannesburg.
Mindful of the
interests of the long-suffering people of Zimbabwe, the
majority of them
supporters of the MDC, over and above the exigency of
scoring mute points
against Zanu-PF I would have taken a broader view of the
ongoing conflict
over my passport, while focusing on the crucial issue of
the allocation of
cabinet posts to Zanu-PF and the MDC.
I would not permit Zanu-PF to so
easily detract the MDC from the major task
in hand through pursuance of
peripheral issues, however I may be entitled,
as a right, to hold a
Zimbabwean passport. It is, indeed, both unreasonable
and humiliating for
the Prime Minister-designate of any country to be denied
a passport. But the
road of any struggle is strewn with hardship. The MDC
must stop behaving as
if they believe that in Zanu-PF they are dealing with
regular
adversaries.
Above all, I would never deny President Mugabe the rope with
which to hang
himself.
The ancestors of the Shona people knew what
they were talking about when
they said: "Kutsvata ngarara kuiteedzera."
http://www.businessday.co.za
27
October 2008
I
almost fell out of my chair, laughing at your realisation that: "It is now
clear that Zanu (PF) never had any real intention of negotiating in good
faith" (Bad faith, October 23).
Did you really ever believe that they
did? Did you also believe that former
president Thabo Mbeki was
"facilitating" in good faith all along? Do I
belong to a small minority who
never trusted Mbeki and President Robert
Mugabe?
Unfortunately, I
also agree with those analysts who often refer to Morgan
Tsvangirai as
somewhat naive at times. I have never understood his rationale
for trusting
the South African Development Community- appointed facilitator,
especially
after the letter that he was reported to have written to demand
respect for
his position as leader of the main opposition party in Zimbabwe
and to ask
for Mbeki's withdrawal.
Mugabe, like Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, should have
been incarcerated in The
Hague months ago! The fact that they remain free is
because we Africans
continue to shield even the most evil amongst us simply
because they are
African.
I have listened to some fellow
Africans say Mugabe should be praised for
having managed to take back the
Zimbabwean land from white people despite
the costs in human life and to the
economy of his country.
I have also listened to people going on about the
importance of "African
solutions" - with demands for western money to be
given without conditions -
for "African problems", but no one has ever been
able to point to one
positive outcome in recent memory that was achieved
through the so-called
"African solution". (Please do not mention Kenya
because Kofi Annan -
African as he is - was "deployed" by the United Nations
, with a UN brief
and resources.)
No country today, especially in
the developing world, can function
successfully outside the global political
and legal system. Until we have
our own resources to experiment with African
solutions, I believe we should
accept advice, expertise and resources from
outside Africa and contribute to
the fight for and protection of human
rights.
Solly Moeng Cape Town
http://www.canada.com
The Ottawa Citizen
Published: Monday, October 27,
2008
Re: Can't blame Mugabe for it all, Oct. 21.
I do not claim to be
an expert on Zimbabwe but I differ with letter-writer
Tudor Jones'
view.
The farms that were taken from the white farmers were not given to
the
general population but rather to Robert Mugabe's cronies. These people
were
not chosen because of their farming or management expertise but rather
because they had some connection to Mr. Mugabe or his government. Many of
these people simply aspired to live like the white farmers. However, they
had no idea what work it took to run the farms in order to maintain that
lifestyle.
It must be understood that "farms" in Zimbabwe were
generally quite large
and often employed whole villages. When the farms were
taken over, there was
no longer any management to run the farms. Fertile
fields were left fallow
and unlanded villagers who had always worked at the
farms were all of a
sudden left without employment and no way to feed their
families.
It is at this point that many were likely driven to cutting down
trees for
fuel and slaughtering animals for food.
My parents who grew
up in Holland visited Zimbabwe recently. My father's
assessment sums it up:
"You can write a treatise about our week in Zimbabwe.
It reminded us
somewhat of the last winter of the Second World War. There is
no food in the
stores, no money in the banks, no work to be had, no light
most of the time,
virtually no petrol and people going hungry everywhere."
So although the
general population may have precipitated Zimbabwe's decline,
the blame must
lie squarely at Mugabe's feet. He took the country from being
the bread
basket of Africa to a country of abject poverty.
Anita
Maasland-McNeil,
Ottawa