Solution to Zim’s problems is political, says Hawkins

Source: Solution to Zim's problems is political, says Hawkins | Daily News

INTERNATIONALLY-ACCLAIMED local economist Tony Hawkins says Zimbabwe’s economic revival hinges on the building of consensus between the ruling ZANU PF and the country’s main opposition party, the MDC.

Hawkins, an economics professor who founded the Graduate School of Management at the University of Zimbabwe, made the remarks at a recent breakfast meeting hosted by the Institute of Directors Zimbabwe (IoDZ) to unpack the latest monetary policy statement delivered by Reserve Bank Governor John Mangudya.

“Ultimately the solution to Zimbabwe’s problems is political.  You can fiddle around with the economy as much as you like but you are not going to get a lasting solution without some form of political and social consensus,” said Hawkins.

The respected economist pooh-poohed ongoing talks between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and opposition parties which have been boycotted by the MDC Alliance.

“There is no point in dialoguing with guys who got less than 0, 5 percent of the votes. You really gotta dialogue with the Alliance (MDC Alliance) which had something like 44 percent of the vote,” he said.

Hawkins said an agreement between Zanu PF and MDC has become inevitable because of the deteriorating economic situation.

“Whether it will be in the form of transitional authority or government of national unity, I am not a politician so I will not go down that road.

“But it seems to me that as the economic conditions become more difficult in 2019, government will be pushed more and more towards looking for a solution along these lines. That is what happened in 2008 remember. There is also international pressure for that kind of solution,” the respected economist said.

According to Hawkins, the worsening economic situation has forced Mnangagwa’s government to re-strategise due to their failure to get a much-needed international bailout to address its sagging foreign position.

“The exchange rate endgame, if there is such a thing, requires an international bailout, the prospects for which have receded quite a lot since the elections. Government has subsequently shifted from Plan A which is international re-engagement to Plan B which is trying to borrow from the East which is China, Iran, Russia and Belarus looks to be most unlikely place to borrow money.

“Plan C, which is probably where we are today, is to try and build some kind of domestic consensus through dialogue,” he said.

Hawkins foresees an economic collapse if Mnangagwa’s government fails to build national consensus.

“There is a risk; some will call it a probability that the shutdown in January was the beginning of increasingly bitter exchanges between a cash-strapped government and angry urban work force.

“Angry because real wages are down by a third, the cost of living is rising sharply and the service conditions under which they operate under are deteriorating,” he said.

Given the worsening economic situation, Hawkins is not convinced that the government will religiously implement its austerity programme.

“At some point the government will have to try and buy off the urban electorate who voted heavily against them in the last election, which may mean wage increases, subsidies and perhaps a fuel cut though not in the near future. It may mean delaying increases in the price of electricity and so on, in other words making Zesa lose even more money than it is losing at the moment.

“We have a very serious issue. We have an extremely fractured and polarised society. We have a rural electorate which supports government and we have younger and urban voters demanding change. How this plays out no one can tell. All we can say is I think the social and political climate will probably worsen as unemployment rises and it will, as poverty increases and it will. Exacerbated by the rise in inflation and the fall in real wages, the polarisation will worsen,” the University of Zimbabwe economic professor said.

COMMENTS

WORDPRESS: 3
  • comment-avatar
    Elizabeth Marunda Mrs PhD 8 months ago

    National problems manifested in political, economic, environmental, social and cultural issues among others are indeed major problems for which there is one root cause. Accepting that there is a root cause, identifying it and its intervention strategy in unison is of critical importance. Just as we start working on the many facets of the intervention strategy the country will start moving forward. We need to start moving in that direction as soon as we can because trampled people’s feet can no longer stand the heat.

  • comment-avatar
    ace mukadota 8 months ago

    Professor Tony Hawkins speaking sense as usual. In Zw it pays to listen when this man speaks.
    Sadly he has been speaking since ZANUPF gained power in 1980 but they have not heeded one of his words – hence the basket case we find ourselves in today

  • comment-avatar
    mazano rewayi 8 months ago

    Very sensible but do they also not say you can not teach old dogs new tricks? Without anyone to blame our leaders can not lead. Anything short of new blood will not work.