Mugabe, Tsvangirai departure ushers competitive politics 

Source: Mugabe, Tsvangirai departure ushers competitive politics – DailyNews Live

Maxwell Sibanda      25 February 2018

HARARE – Zimbabweans are in for an exciting 2018 harmonised election as
Zanu PF and the MDC go into this crucial contest without their two main
political characters: Robert Mugabe and the late Morgan Tsvangirai.

The two had since 2002 elections fiercely contested each other in
successive polls that have produced contested outcomes.

Mugabe, who over those years led the ruling Zanu PF and stood as it’s
presidential candidate, was deposed by the army in November while
Tsvangirai, who has been the MDC president for 18 years succumbed to
cancer on February 14.

Mugabe has been succeeded by Emmerson Mnangagwa, 75, while Tsvangirai was
succeeded by Nelson Chamisa, 40.

Analysts told the Daily News on Sunday that their departure opens up the
political space in unprecedented ways

Political analyst MacDonald Lewanika said over the years, Tsvangirai and
Mugabe were towering figures on Zimbabwe’s political land scape where they
dominated space and it was very difficult to challenge them.

“Mnangagwa is no Mugabe and will never have the kind of hegemonic control
over Zanu that Mugabe had. Chamisa is no Tsvangirai and as we can see
there are many taking shots at his head,” Lewanika said.

At the very least, he said, Zimbabwe is opening up for more competitive
politics with more players beyond the two hegemonic parties.

“I think this year we will say good bye to Zanu PF and MDC’s monopolies in
Parliament as other actors move in to pluck what they can from the less
than consolidated support of Mnangagwa and Chamisa,” he said.

Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition spokesperson Tabani Moyo said it was exciting
that this is indeed the first time post 2000 when the ballot papers will
not feature both Mugabe and Tsvangirai.

“However, my take is that their shadows will be casting a long shadow on
this election. All those that will be campaigning for Mnangagwa are doing
so on the strength of how far they will discredit Mugabe and how faraway
are they drifting from his propositions.

“However, reality shows that Mnangagwa is operating within the big shoes
of Mugabe, his central committee of the party were inherited from the
veteran ruler and so are his ministers in government cut from Mugabe’s
cloth.

“The budgetary thinking and subsequent way of operating is virtually
software acquired from Mugabe, so his shadow is a big factor in this whole
process,” Moyo said.

On the other hand, opined Moyo, “the MDC candidate, likely to be Chamisa,
is equally leaning on Tsvangirai’s social capital and base, hence it’s the
Tsvangirai factor which will be annexed to Chamisa’s propositions.

“In as much as the ballot papers will not feature the two enigma
politicians, in reality, it’s the last frontier of the veteran leaders
having influence in an election.”

Political analyst Maxwell Saungweme said the presidential contest will be
drama-filled.

“It will pit youthful, energetic and eloquent Chamisa versus old, tired
and more-of-the same Mnangagwa. There is no doubt that Chamisa will come
out favourite in terms of wooing crowds and oratory dexterity. If the poll
were to be free and fair, Chamisa would win.

“But a combination of factors – uneven play field tilted in Mnagangawa’s
favour – military fear factor, Zanu PF-politicised Zimbabwe Election
Commission, monopolisation of public media by Zanu PF and lack of
electoral reforms.

“These will ensure that Mnangangwa is declared winner even if Chamisa has
the numbers. Unless Chamisa pulls something new from his sleeves, we are
likely to have same scenario where Zanu PF presidential candidate loses
the poll but is declared winner,” said Saungweme.

To this extent, he added, the presidential election will be a charade like
the past unless the opposition devises a strategy to reclaim the peoples’
vote once stolen.

“Tsvangirai failed on this and I don’t think Chamisa will succeed on this
aspect. So as far as the presidential election is concerned, we are likely
to have the opposition winning and the Zanu PF candidate sworn-in as
president.

“Otherwise the military coup will go in history as a coup that ousted a
ruling party president and replaced them a few months later with an
opposition party yet the military that did the coup is Zanu PF.”

Saungweme said in terms of parliamentary polls, this one will be more
dramatic and full of surprises.

“We are likely to have more independent candidates this time with some who
broke away from MDC and Zanu PF as well as some who were never affiliated
with either of the parties.

“We are likely to have some sitting Zanu PF MPs rebelling the likely
imposition of ex-soldiers to run in their stead, and these will break away
and run as independents.

“We also likely to have some disgruntled MDC members not favouring
alliance vying as independents. A few of these independents will get into
Parliament, but the number will not be significant as winning depends on
political party endorsement as the power of the party is becoming more
critical should it be Zanu PF or opposition.

“We are also likely this time to have a situation where we have more
opposition MPs in Parliament than before as it will be more difficult for
Zanu PF to effectively rig parliamentary polls than presidential. A likely
possibility is a majority opposition Parliament under a ruling party
president.”

Political analyst Vivid Gwede said a stagnated political and electoral
contest between the personalities of Mugabe and Tsvangirai has ended, but
the fundamental struggle for democratisation of the state continues.

“It’s not a new drama, but just a new cast. The fight between the
post-independence ideas and the nationalist entitlement of the liberation
generation remains alive. Although it is not a new world, a change of the
political climate and breath of fresh air has occurred to our political
life.

“A generational shift representative of the new demographic realities has
also occurred in the opposition leadership, which is a fundamental shift
in the 2018 elections. This generational shift which saw Chamisa’s rise in
the opposition and which the ruling party failed to achieve in the
November transition now leaves MDC Alliance and Zanu PF worlds apart.

“In Zanu PF, there was only a leadership change without a remarkable
generational shift, while in the MDC both have occurred at once. This
leaves the opposition MDC Alliance well-placed to capture the imagination
of a new generation sooner or later,” said Gwede.

Political analyst Rashweat Mukundu said this is an interesting election
pitting new faces though the leading candidates have long histories in
their parties and politics.

“I am looking forward to a ballot with Mnangagwa, Chamisa and Joice
Mujuru, as that represents some change of sorts.

“The key issue is whether all candidates can be allowed to campaign freely
and in rural areas so that the contest is free and fair.

“Change is unpredictable and depends on those with power and that is
Mnangagwa and Zanu PF. The question is will they allow a handover of power
to Chamisa? If Zimbabwe is to progress, Zanu PF must be prepared for a
free and fair election and indeed handing over power if defeated,” said
Mukundu.

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