Sokwanele - Enough is Enough -
Zimbabwe PROMOTING NON-VIOLENT PRINCIPLES TO ACHIEVE DEMOCRACY |
Sokwanele : 2 April 2008 With the announcement of these next fifteen seats, the ZEC has brought the total announced to 176 constituencies. Zanu PF are now leading by one seat (with a total of 86) and MDC Tsvangirai are behind by one seat, with a total of 85. MDC Mutambara still have 5 seats. Buhera North ZPF 7511 / MDC MT 6835 / Chimanimani West MDC MT 8558 / ZPF 7107 / Chitungwiza South MDC MT 6243 / ZPF 4597 / MDC AM 660 / IND 110 / ZPPDP 92 / ZDP 32 / Chivi South ZPF 7778 / MDC MT 4234 / UPP 408 / IND 379 / Glen Norah MDC MT 7030 / ZPF 1139 / MDC AM 757 / IND 235 / ZPPDP 29 / Glen View South MDC MT 9158 / ZPF 1273 / IND 233 / ZDP 43 / UPP 0 / MDC AM 0 / VP 0 / Guruve South ZPF 9284 / MDC MT 4298 / UPP 350 / Harare Central MDC MT 5944 / ZPF 1705 / MDC AM 624 / IND 373 / CDP 81 / ZIYA 7 / IND 0 / Headlands ZPF 7257 / MDC MT 4235 / IND 1291 / Highfield East MDC MT 8216 / ZPF 1756 / MDC AM 1233 / IND 249 / ZDP 41 / ZPPDP 34 / Masvingo Urban MDC MT 9162 / ZPF 4135 / MDC AM 544 / MDC AM 440 / IND 390 / UPP 161 / Mutare North ZPF 9158 / MDC MT 7054 / IND 518 / Mutoko East ZPF 7328 / MDC MT 5238 / Mwenezi East ZPF 9696 / MDC MT 2477 / IND 588 / Zengeza West MDC MT 7987 / ZPF 2666 / MDC AM 1045 / UPP 105 / IND 0 / Subscribe to receive results by sending an email to elections2008@sokwanele.com. Please, it would be very helpful to us if you could subscribe yourselves automatically via our website at the following address: www.sokwanele.com/join.html. If you can't, we will still do our best to ensure your addresses are added to the list for successive mailings. Election results are also being posted on our website at http://www.sokwanele.com/election2008 as we get them. Visit our website at
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Business Day
02 April 2008
Brian Latham and Antony Sguazzin
Bloomberg
HARARE —
The normally bustling streets of Harare were empty amid fears of
opposition
protests or a police crackdown that may follow, people in the
capital city
said yesterday.
With results from 131 of Zimbabwe’s 210
constituencies announced, the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) had won 67 parliament seats
while President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe
African National Union (PF) trailed
slightly with 64 last
night.
Some observers said the “one-each” trend beggared belief. No
results have
been released for municipal, senatorial or presidential
elections.
The MDC, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, claims to have won a
majority in
parliament and the presidential race.
United Nations
secretary-general Ban Ki-moon joined the UK, US and European
Union urging
“utmost transparency in the vote-counting so that Zimbabweans
could have
full confidence in the results”.
“No one knows anything,” the
streets are quiet and roadblocks have been set
up on many roads,” Mary
Sargeant, an advertising manager who has lived in
Harare for 30 years, said
in an interview yesterday. “The silence is
deafening and the speculation
rife.”
In a petition to the Southern African Development Community and
the African
Union, a coalition of 18 rights organisations, including the
pro-opposition
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition and Zimbabwe Congress of Trade
Unions, urged
them to push for speedier results and expressed fear that the
delay was part
of efforts to fix the outcome in favour of Zanu
(PF).
Public dissatisfaction has grown with Mugabe’s rule after a
decade of
recession and the world’s highest inflation rate of 100580%. He
won
elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005 with the help of violence and
irregularities, according to European Union observers and others who
monitored those polls.
Mugabe is competing
against Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni, a former finance
minister who is
running as an independent after breaking with the ruling
party.
A
run-off election would be held within three weeks if none of the
presidential candidates obtains more than 50%.
A tally posted on
the internet by nongovernmental groups showed Tsvangirai
obtained 51% of the
presidential vote, Mugabe 42% and Makoni 7%.
It gave the MDC 99 out of
the 210 parliamentary seats, Zanu-(PF) 77 and
independents and the splinter
group of the MDC, 10, with results for the
remaining 24 seats not yet
collated.
The groups say they base their count on results posted outside
polling
stations, as is required before they are sent to the central
government.
Mugabe may accept that his party has been defeated, John
Makumbe, a
political analyst, said in Harare.
“The service chiefs
from the army and the police are talking to Tsvangirai
in an effort to
create some sort of transitional structures,” Makumbe said,
without
identifying the source of this information.
Noel Kututwa, chairman of
the independent Zimbabwe Electoral Support
Network, said a sample it
conducted of 435 polling stations, covering 5% of
the population, showed
Tsvangirai winning 49% of the presidential vote,
Mugabe 41% and Makoni
8%.
Bloomberg News was not able to verify the MDC’s claim of victory
independently.
“What the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is doing now
is simply buying time,”
said Marian Tupy, an Africa specialist at the
Washington-based Cato
Institute.
The government hasn’t “decided what
to do: to declare a state of emergency,
to simply steal the election, or to
postpone the day of reckoning by
allowing a second
round”.
Many of the seats obtained by Zanu (PF) in the
parliamentary polls are in
rural areas and the north of the country where
Mugabe comes from.
“Tensions are rising as people wonder why these
delays are necessary,
particularly given that some results have been posted
outside polling
stations,” Michelle Gavin, an analyst at the
Washington-based Council on
Foreign Relations, said on Monday. “It looks to
Zimbabweans like this should
be a simple
process.”
Marwick Khumalo, an observer from the Pan-African
Parliament, said Zanu (PF)
was “concerned about the possibility of a change
of guard”. He also said the
commission had most, if not all, the
results.
Responding to reports yesterday, Tsvangirai’s spokesman
George Sibotshiwe
said he knew “nothing about meetings between Tsvangirai
and service chiefs”.
Nathan Shamuyarira, a spokesman for Zanu
(PF), did not take calls. Wayne
Bvudzijena, a police spokesman, said
yesterday that while people could
celebrate, violence would not be
tolerated.
Tupy and other analysts said Zimbabwe is unlikely to
experience the sort of
ethnic fighting that followed the disputed December
27 vote in Kenya, which
left 1500 people dead and 300000
displaced.
Makoni, Tsvangirai and Mugabe are from the dominant ethnic
group but despite
intra-Mashona power wrangles, any violence would probably
be between the
state security apparatus and the public, they said.
IOL
April 02 2008 at
06:46AM
By Fiona Forde and Moshoeshoe Monare
A
behind-the-scenes negotiated settlement has averted a military coup
in
Zimbabwe and paved the way for a runoff between Robert Mugabe and Morgan
Tsvangirai later this month.
According to multiple reliable
sources, both within the armed forces
and the opposition MDC, Tsvangirai has
won 48 percent of the presidential
vote, while the incumbent president has
taken 43 percent.
The Movement for Democratic Change has also
secured the seats of 100
MPs and the ruling Zanu-PF 98, according to figures
due to be released by
the state-run electoral commission late on Tuesday
night.
In the absence of the required majority of 50 percent plus
1, the two
rivals are likely to meet each other in a second round towards
the end this
month.
However, it was not
without 11th-hour, delicate diplomatic manoeuvring
on all fronts to ensure
hardline members of the armed forces were brought on
board.
"It
has been touch and go for the past 24 hours," one source told The
Star on
Tuesday night, adding that "there were two chiefs who were fully
prepared to
stage a coup", while Mugabe and many of his right-hand men were
prepared to
negotiate what one source terms "a gracious exit" for the
long-standing
president.
The two hardliners in question were Air Force Marshal
Perence Shiri,
who is closely associated with the Matabeleland massacre of
the 1980s, and
the Defence Force Commander, General Constantine Chiwenga, a
Zanu-PF
loyalist.
Throughout Tuesday, it was the security
chiefs of the country's five
armed forces and not Mugabe who held the keys
to the outcome. While his
close associates foresaw and accepted defeat, the
armed forces were divided.
Shiri and Chiwenga met opposition from
Army Commander Philip Sibanda;
Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri; the
Intelligence Chief, retired
major-general Happyton Bonyongwe; and the
Director of Prisons, retired
brigadier Paradzai Zimondi, who feared the
worst in the event of a military
clampdown.
"The other three
armed chiefs were adamant this was not the way to
go," a second source said,
"because if they did, they knew it would lead to
Western intervention, which
they did not want."
It is understood that Shiri and Chiwenga feared
a future government
without a Zanu-PF component. To allay their fears, The
Star understands that
Simba Makoni has been accepted on all fronts as the
man who would fill that
void, "in a very senior position and possibly as
prime minister", a role
abolished when Mugabe was elected president in
1987.
The other binding feature of Tuesday's agreement was an
assurance that
Mugabe would be allowed to live out his remaining days in the
country of his
birth and would not fear prosecution.
"They
won't touch him," one source, close to the MDC, confirmed. "He
will live
here freely."
In recent days there had been unfounded rumours that
the ageing
dictator had fled the country, while he was holed up in Harare's
State
House, contemplating his future. However, unconfirmed reports suggest
his
second wife, Grace, and his children left in the aftermath of the
election
and are now in Malaysia, a haven Mugabe established in recent years
and
where he is believed to be hoarding his vast wealth.
Under
Zimbabwean electoral law, a period of 21 days must pass before a
runoff can
take place, "and that gives Morgan (Tsvangirai) the time to bring
them all
on board without problems".
It is widely perceived that Mugabe
would not fare well in a second
round and the likelihood of the 84-year-old
stepping down in the meantime is
also a possibility.
This article was originally published on page 1 of The Star on April
02,
2008
Washington Post
Political Resolution
Sought After Leader's Apparent Loss at Polls
By Craig Timberg and Darlington
Majonga
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, April 2, 2008; Page
A01
HARARE, Zimbabwe, April 1 -- Some members of Zimbabwe's jittery
ruling elite
have concluded that President Robert Mugabe must step down
after apparently
losing an election last weekend and have begun reaching out
to opposition
leaders to resolve the four-day-old political standoff,
according to ruling
party members, diplomats and political observers
here.
Mugabe, 84, has made no public appearance since Saturday, when he
pledged
not to rig the results and to abide by the vote totals. But behind
the
scenes, his future is the subject of wrenching discussions inside his
ruling
party, the sources said.
Though the sources said that
unofficial contacts between ruling party and
opposition members were
underway, opposition leaders repeatedly and
vehemently denied that there
were any discussions, or that there would be
any deal with Mugabe before the
election results were officially published.
The presidential election has
so far yielded no official results, and on
Tuesday the electoral commission,
controlled by Mugabe allies, urged
patience. But a growing list of
indicators, including a rigorous statistical
model based on a sampling of
publicly posted vote tallies, now points to a
victory by longtime opposition
leader Morgan Tsvangirai, showing he got
something near 50 percent of the
vote, over Mugabe's roughly 42 percent. An
independent candidate got 8
percent.
A Mugabe loss, if confirmed, would end 28 years of unbroken rule
in which he
took the nation to the pinnacle of African progress before
plunging it into
one of the continent's worst political and economic
crises.
The outpouring of voter rejection Saturday appears to have
overwhelmed the
many political advantages Mugabe enjoyed, including nearly
total control
over the flow of information and voter rolls that
systematically excluded
many of his most fervent detractors.
"It's
clear that [Mugabe] has lost the vote," said Dumisani Muleya, a
political
reporter at the Zimbabwe Independent newspaper. In interviews,
several
senior advisers to Mugabe had told him that "they're trying to find
some way
to resolve this issue."
Perhaps the most important group in the
discussions is the leadership of
Mugabe's historically loyal security
apparatus. The "securocrats," including
top members of the police, military
and intelligence service, reportedly are
split over whether to act to keep
Mugabe in power or to urge him to accept
defeat.
A retired general,
speaking on condition of anonymity, said the air force
chief has refused to
back military action to protect Mugabe, while the
police force is steadfast
behind him.
Among the immediate questions is whether Zimbabwe will
conduct a runoff, as
required by the constitution if no candidate tops the
50 percent mark.
Tsvangirai asserted at a news conference Tuesday night that
he had passed
that point in the first round, making a runoff unnecessary.
But the
independent monitoring group that analyzed the posted vote tallies
projected
his victory as falling barely short of a majority.
Mugabe
is said to be reluctant to engage in a second round of voting, which
could
lead to a wider margin of defeat by consolidating opposition to his
rule,
according to sources and news reports.
Discussions in the ruling camp
were said to be turning Tuesday to the vast
list of decisions that a
Tsvangirai government would quickly face. Among
them: Would he pursue legal
action against Mugabe for possible crimes
against humanity? Would he purge a
military built more to battle Mugabe's
enemies than outside forces? Would he
reverse the land seizures that began
in 2000 and return commercial farms to
their previous owners, most of them
white?
A ruling party
businessman, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a
Tsvangirai victory
might be accepted if he agreed not to take away farms
that Mugabe had doled
out, to peasants as well as political cronies. "If he
gives this land back
to the whites, then we have a problem with him," the
businessman
said.
Analyst John Makumbe, a longtime Mugabe critic, said anxiety within
the
ruling party was running high. "They are not really unified," he said,
predicting that Mugabe's departure was imminent. "They know they cannot make
it. They know he cannot survive a second round" of voting.
The political
stalemate has captivated Zimbabweans, especially in Harare,
the capital,
where a blizzard of rumors dominated an anxious day of waiting.
The
president's fall would be exceeded, in terms of historic importance
here,
only by the end of white supremacist rule in 1980, when the nation was
called Rhodesia and faced a tenacious guerrilla force led by Mugabe. He has
ruled the country ever since.
Tsvangirai, 56, a former trade unionist
with a gregarious brand of charisma
but limited formal education, has vowed
to enact a broad renewal plan to
stabilize the currency, curb 100,000
percent inflation and provide free
primary education as well as widespread
access to antiretroviral drugs to
combat one of the world's worst AIDS
epidemics.
Opposition party officials have repeatedly refused to answer
questions about
elements of any possible political deal to ease Mugabe from
office.
Tsvangirai also said at his news conference that the
parliamentary results
released so far by the electoral commission appear to
be in line with those
posted at polling stations and collected by the
opposition party.
"President Mugabe said that he's an honest man and he
doesn't believe in
cheating," Tsvangirai said. "I hope when the vote is
announced that it is an
honest vote."
The Scotsman
By Jane Fields
THE end of Robert Mugabe's reign
looked to be drawing near last night as
senior aides tried to negotiate a
"safe haven" deal for the 84-year-old
dictator in South Africa, following
his likely defeat by Morgan Tsvangirai
in last weekend's presidential
polls.
Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron grip since
1980, has been
told he is trailing the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
leader in
preliminary results sources said.
It emerged yesterday that
the president's right-hand man, Emmerson
Mnangagwa, flew to Pretoria on
Monday to discuss plans for a safe haven,
which would see Mr Mugabe immune
from prosecution at The Hague.
Another option for Mr Mugabe may be to fly
to Malaysia.
Last night, in his first public appearance since the
election, Mr Tsvangirai
said his party was not involved in the
deal.
At a news conference, the MDC leader insisted: "Let me inform you
there is
no way the MDC will enter into any deal before the electoral
commission has
announced the results.
"Let's wait for the election
commission to complete its work, then we can
discuss the circumstances that
will affect the people," he said.
He added: "Robert Mugabe has said he's
an honest man. I hope that when the
results are announced, it's a true
reflection of the vote and there's no
reason to investigate
fraud."
Mr Tsvangirai also urged the electoral commission "to proceed
with haste,
and I think two and a half days is not haste at all." His party
will release
its own complete tallies today. Mr Mugabe has been warned he
could provoke a
Kenya-style uprising if he declared himself the winner of
the polls.
It has also emerged that, as the full scale of Mr Mugabe's
defeat became
clear to observers, Zimbabwe's security chiefs ordered the
country's
electoral commission to announce parliamentary results so it
looked as if
the MDC and Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF were closely matched.
Since Monday,
the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has had to
stage-manage
announcements, broadcasting small batches of results every four
or five
hours.
By last night, authorities had announced results for
140 out of 210
constituencies. The two factions of the MDC had taken a total
of 72 seats
with 68 for Zanu-PF.
The MDC believes Mr Tsvangirai has
won between 55 and 56 per cent of the
vote on the back of widespread
discontent with Mr Mugabe's disastrous
28-year rule.
However,
analysts have warned that Mr Mugabe may yet find a way to cling to
power. In
a clear sign of unease, the former guerrilla leader has not been
seen in
public since Saturday.
Concerns have also been raised that Mr Mugabe
could grab the presidency and
dissolve parliament by presidential decree –
possible according to
Zimbabwe's constitution.
Zimbabwe's master
vote-rigger is down but not out
ROBERT Mugabe, who rigged Zimbabwean
election results in his favour three
times between 2000 and 2005, is facing
the biggest challenge yet to his
vote-juggling skills following the
presidential and parliamentary elections.
The problem facing Mr Mugabe is
that the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) has so obviously,
by nearly every informed account, won both
polls by huge
majorities.
However, no-one should discount the 84-year-old's
skill.
The huge delay in the release of the results indicates Mr Mugabe
and his top
party and military aides are shocked by the scale of the defeat.
But it is
equally certain they are working on a surprise that will, at
least, maintain
for them a degree of power and rule out prosecution for
crimes against
humanity.
The few people, beyond his immediate circle,
who are reasonably close to Mr
Mugabe believe he is emotionally incapable of
admitting defeat.
However, one whisper in Harare is that he is preparing
to do so and will
accept a safe exile, probably in Malaysia, where he has
stashed most of his
considerable wealth. For a man who has said: "Let me be
Hitler tenfold," who
has boasted of his "degrees in violence" and has warned
he will only be
taken from power in a coffin, this is the least likely
scenario.
Another whisper is he is preparing to share power with MDC
leader Morgan
Tsvangirai. This is not impossible, but Mr Tsvangirai would
need to be at
his most naive to accept such an arrangement. That leaves
fixing the
election in favour of himself and the ruling ZANU-PF
party.
The slow fix, in which Mr Tsvangirai's vote would be declared at
just under
50 per cent, would involve a run-off presidential election
between the MDC
leader and Mr Mugabe. This would give Mr Mugabe, his
military chiefs and
ruling party bigwigs plenty of time to manipulate the
poll.
But the way parliamentary election results are oozing out suggest a
late
spurt of votes for ZANU-PF from rural areas will secure a narrow
majority in
parliament. In which case, why delay fixing of the presidential
vote?
Mr Mugabe will go for the quick fix. He will then step down in the
next five
years, secure in the knowledge that he can live without fear of
prosecution.
A new ZANU-PF leadership will then try to repair the damage he
has inflicted
on his country: it will be a prolonged job.
• Fred
Bridgland launched and edited for the past three years the Zimbabwe
Report
of the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting.
Last Updated:
01 April 2008 11:40 PM
Financial Times
By
Michael Holman
Published: April 1 2008 19:21 | Last updated: April 1 2008
19:21
If bravery shaped reality, Zimbabwe would be starting a new era. In
the face
of thuggery and in defiance of years of state intimidation, the
country’s
opposition has swept the election board. But it would be premature
to
celebrate the political demise – and foolish to underestimate the resolve
–
of the 84-year-old Robert Mugabe, the man who has led Zimbabwe from
independence in 1980 and who has since delivered it into the
abyss.
In the days ahead we shall learn whether Zimbabwe is poised to
return to
democracy or whether it is in the throes of a slow-motion coup, as
heavily
manipulated “official” results are delivered to a disbelieving
public, with
the security forces ready to intervene.
It was always
likely to be thus.
Hopes that Mr Mugabe would accept defeat at last
Saturday’s poll have been
fuelled by a form of wishful thinking that defies
both human nature and
political gravity. It seemed improbable that a man who
has flouted democracy
for so long would respect the verdict of the ballot
box and that he would
not contrive to rig the official outcome.
As
the realisation sinks in that the president is likely to fight from his
bunker rather than accept defeat, there will be the usual cries that
“something must be done”. But what, precisely? Any talk of expanding the
ineffectual targeted sanctions against the regime borders on the absurd: the
country is already in a state of economic collapse. What is more, sanctions
seldom work – as Rhodesia itself showed. It took a guerrilla war to secure
its transition to Zimbabwe.
Others will call for military
intervention. But who will take on the task?
To suggest the African Union,
unable to cope with Darfur, is risible. South
Africa? Hazardous. Remember
that President Thabo Mbeki and Mr Mugabe are not
“comrades in arms” – their
guerrillas fought each other during Zimbabwe’s
liberation war and there are
old scores to settle.
Furthermore, the record shows that interference in
Africa, whether by
outsiders or Africans, has usually been disastrous,
whatever the motive –
ideological (the US in Zaire, the Soviet Union in
Ethiopia), humanitarian
(the US in Somalia) or well-intentioned (Tanzania in
Idi Amin’s Uganda).
So what can be done?
If you lack a stick, then
use a carrot. As Zimbabweans prepare for a final
heave, their bravery needs
to be supplemented by hope: hope that stems from
evidence that their future
will be marked by a rapid improvement in their
wretched
circumstances.
Of course, long-term recovery measures must be decided by
Zimbabweans
themselves; but short-term relief can be assembled in days.
Preparation
should take the form of an emergency aid conference, convened
irrespective
of the outcome of the current crisis, ready to be implemented
when democracy
returns. Donors would be asked to make public commitments to
funding or
supplying Zimbabwe’s desperate needs: fertiliser for agriculture,
raw
materials and spare parts for industry, medicines for clinics, fuel for
transport.
On the agenda would also be ways to kick-start the
country’s hard-hit
tourist industry, once a leading foreign exchange earner
and an important
employer. Perhaps this could take the form of a one-off
offer to foreign
visitors of a holiday, at cost, in one of Zimbabwe’s many
game parks.
Britain’s Department for International Development should
invest the £30m
(€38m) it has earmarked for an orderly land reform programme
in a commercial
farming centre, located on the Mozambique-Zimbabwe border,
where
dispossessed farmers might regroup to use their
expertise.
Meanwhile, newspapers could lead an appeal for books;
magazines and academic
journals could provide free subscription to the
country’s schools and
universities and libraries.
This package of
measures would be published and made available to every
Zimbabwean, telling
them what the future holds. Who better to co-ordinate
the programme than the
Commonwealth, that near-moribund association of
50-odd countries, linked by
a history of association with Britain? It was a
Commonwealth summit in
Lusaka, Zambia’s capital, in 1979 that helped lay
foundations for Zimbabwe’s
independence elections the following year.
The organisation has allowed
Zimbabwe to drop off its agenda, using Mr
Mugabe’s withdrawal from
membership in 2003 as an excuse for shameful
neglect. Let the Commonwealth
lead the exercise that could redeem its
failure and offer help as well as
hope to the brave people of Zimbabwe.
Two birds, one stone.
VOA
By Carole Gombakomba
Washington
01 April
2008
Legal experts say the laborious procedure that the
Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission has been following since the country's
elections Saturday is not
required by law.
These experts say the
results of races for the house, senate and local
councils should be
announced at the constituency level, and that the only
result which the
commission is legally bound to tabulate is the outcome of
the presidential
election.
Human rights lawyer Irene Petras, vice chairwoman of the
Zimbabwe Election
Support Network, told reporter Carole Gombakomba of VOA's
Studio 7 for
Zimbabwe that the commission should be concentrating on the
presidential
results.
Yahoo News
by Susan Njanji
Tue Apr 1, 9:13 PM ET
HARARE (AFP) - The final results of Zimbabwe's
parliamentary election were
set to be announced Wednesday amid growing
clamour for the outcome of a
simultaneous contest which could see Robert
Mugabe ousted as president.
A source at the electoral commission, which
has so far declared results from
175 of the 210 parliamentary
constituencies, said the final seats should be
declared Wednesday as well as
the make-up of the largely ceremonial senate.
So far the opposition has a
slight lead over Mugabe's ruling party, with 90
seats to the Zimbabwe
African National Union -- Patriotic Front's tally of
85.
"We are
expecting to mop up on the remaining MPs. Then we hope the
senatorial
results will not take us too much time and then we'll go into the
presidential election," the source told AFP.
However he refused to
commit himself to any timeline on the more crucial
presidential contest
despite calls from the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC)
leader Morgan Tsvangirai to speed up the process.
"I want to urge the
electoral authorities to proceed with haste," said
Tsvangirai at a press
conference on Tuesday night.
However Tsvangirai, who is convinced that he
has toppled Mugabe from power
after 28 years at the helm of the former
British colony, also called for
patience among his supporters.
"The
people of Zimbabwe have waited for this for so long and I think they
can
wait longer," he said.
During the briefing, his first public appearance
since casting his ballot on
Saturday, Tsvangirai deflected suggestions his
party and ZANU-PF were
already in discussions about an exit strategy for the
president.
"We want to know who has won what before we can talk of any
negotiations,"
he said.
The unprecedented hold-up to the presidential
result has prompted fevered
speculation the delay is to either fix the
outcome on Mugabe's behalf or
come up with a dignified way for the country's
leader since independence to
depart.
A senior ZANU-PF member told AFP
that Mugabe had already agreed in principle
to stand aside in favour of
Tsvangirai, a man whom the president last month
insisted would never rule in
his lifetime.
The ruling party source said it now appeared Tsvangirai had
won around 48
percent of the vote -- not enough for an outright majority --
but Mugabe did
not want to suffer the indignity of a second round run-off
later this month.
The only significant stumbling block, the source added,
was the reluctance
of his army chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga to
sanction his exit.
"There is only one person still blocking him, the army
chief of staff."
The official word from the Mugabe camp was that talk of
negotiations was
mischief-making.
"The parliamentary election results
are still being announced and the
presidential election results are still
pending and we wonder where all the
talk on talks is coming from," deputy
information minister Bright Matonga
told AFP.
Meanwhile a senior
European diplomat in Harare expected Mugabe, who has
ruled the former
British colony since independence in 1980, would go
quietly.
"Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power
smoothly," said the
source.
European governments and the US have been
urging the electoral commission to
end the hold-up on the presidential
vote.
"We're very concerned about (the hold-up), and believe that further
delays
in releasing these results are not helpful," State Department deputy
spokesman Tom Casey told reporters.
In a petition to the 14-nation
Southern African Development Community (SADC)
and the African Union, which
both monitored the elections, a coalition of 18
rights organisations urged
them to push for speedier results.
"We ... have found it necessary to
send this urgent petition to your
excellencies in order to save our country
from potentially sinking into
complete anarchy if election results are
manipulated," the petition said.
Independent, UK
Forget the official media in Zimbabwe: the blogs are the place to find
the
mood of the nation
Wednesday, 2 April 2008
"I need to
scream. I can't stand it anymore. I've been waiting, waiting for
a press
conference from the opposition and have just heard that they have
pulled
back. I'm going mad. Talk oscillates between deep fear that the delay
is
rigging, and the other talk is that big secret negotiations are being
held.
The former doesn't surprise me, the latter, however, bothers me ...
what are
they saying, is what I want to know!? What compromises are you
making behind
The People's back? Which of our dreams are you trading against
our fears?
Our voices and views are written on the walls and tents of
polling stations
everywhere. What else do we need to say?!! Aaaaaargh... !
OK... breathe,
just breathe... Nah, screaming's better at this stage...
Aaaaraaghh!!!"
Contributor to http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe
"Welcome
to Rumour City! With results still only trickling out of the
Zimbabwe EC,
the rumour machine has been working overtime in Zimbabwe. With
scarcely any
facts to go on, imaginations are running riot."
Moses Moyo on http://www.zimbabwetoday.co.uk/
"I
am so happy to see change is finally coming to my country. I have worked
for
10 years. I think after change we will have a rainbow Zimbabwe made up
of
tolerance and I pray for a prosperous Zimbabwe... Sehambile!!!! (He is
gone)."
Contributor to http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe
"Please
God, one day we can look back and tell the grandkids about these
dark hours
and laugh. The dream is so close we can taste it; but the regime
continues
to wield the upper hand. Sitting by the radio and listening to the
inane
dead BC (Zimbabwean television) programming. This whole afternoon they
have
not given one result."
Contributor to http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe
"It
would be a welcome breath of fresh air for Zimbabwe to have its first
post-independence government without Mugabe and Zanu-PF at the helm. But it
is not in the country's interests for the MDC's win to be the electoral
"massacre" of Zanu-PF that the opposition party's official Tendai Biti
boasted about soon after the end of voting ... Before Tsvangirai and the MDC
mutate into power-drunk monster, which will happen within their first 12
months in power, we need to have a Zanu-PF that is poised to be a strong
opposition party, to revive a rude, irreverent independent media, to start
rebuilding an independent judiciary and to have various strong, non-partisan
citizen political interest groups."
Contributor to http://zimreview.wordpress.com/
"Victory
is in the air. But so is uncertainty... The Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission is
announcing results at the pace of a wheelchair-less cripple
making their way
down a power-cut... corridor."
Comrade Fatso on http://comradefatso.vox.com
"Blaring
from the speakers of a public address system with the din reaching
more than
five streets is music which is likely to earn the man spinning the
discs a
beating from the thought police. He plays Hugh Masekela where he
exhorts by
name African despots – including our very own – to cede power and
retire
peacefully; he plays Mbongeni Ngema's "Freedom Is Coming Tomorrow"...
Imbibers enjoy the beer and music despite their circumstances, and for them
hope lies in both the music and deep in their hearts that a better Zimbabwe
is nigh."
Marko Phiri on http://www.kubatanablogs.net/kubatana
"We
have tried the democratic route more than three times now and the
election
has been stolen. We have tried the courts, and up to now Tsvangirai
does not
have a verdict for an election of 2002. We have no choice but to...
exercise
people power. [Kenya opposition leader Raila] Odinga asserted
himself and
the world... listened. If Tsvangirai thinks the international
community is
going to give us independence then he will remain in opposition
forever.
Let's reclaim State House, it's unoccupied anyway!!!"
Anonymous on http://www.kubatanablogs.net/kubatana
"Zimbabwe
cannot move on with Mugabe at the helm; Mugabe must go, and he
must go now
before he plunges our beloved country into chaos and bloodshed.
Zanu-PF may
want to take comfort in the knowledge that they have rigged
before and there
was no uprising and South Africa and others looked away.
That was then, this
time the people of Zimbabwe will defend their vote; the
prospect of another
disastrous five years with Mugabe and Zanu-PF is
motivation enough to take
the struggle to the next level, on the streets.
What Zimbabwe needs is a new
leader with fresh ideas, not the look-east
nonsense and diet of starvation
that we have known with Mugabe."
Dewa Mavhinga on http://www.kubatanablogs.net/kubatana
"I
went to the supermarket today to peruse the empty shelves. What fun.
While
there, I decided to run an informal survey. I asked nine people what
they
would do if Bob gets in. Six answered they would leave the country; one
said
she would follow me wherever I went; and only one said he would march
on
State House. I wonder if the six who are leaving have already cut their
hole
in the fence and what area of crime they will be forced to enter in
their
unwelcome destinations? Update: OK... I can't do even small sums.
Maybe I
should get a job for Zanu-PF?"
Contributor to http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe
Independent, UK
Wednesday, 2 April 2008
As Zimbabwe's elections
hang in the balance, it's instructive to look at
Robert Mugabe's master map
of electoral manipulation. There are three
distinct stages to how he rigs
the poll.
Stage one is the skewing of the democratic environment. He has
always done
this. Even in the very first post-civil war elections in 1980,
that brought
him to power with an overwhelming mandate. Instead of moving
all his
guerrillas into assembly points, as agreed under the Lancaster House
peace
deal, he instructed a large number to stay among the rural electorate
and
warn them to vote for him, or else 'aluta continua' – the war
continues.
Now Mugabe uses the traditional tribal chiefs to control the
rural
electorate. He pays them large salaries and gives them luxury SUVs, on
condition they instruct their followers to vote for him. Mugabe also
increased the number of rural polling stations, ostensibly, to cut the
distance rural voters have to travel to cast their ballots, but actually, to
impose greater scrutiny on how they vote. That way, instead of there being
dozens of villages in the catchment Mugabe's men can now identify opposition
votes with particular villages and threaten them with dire
consequences.
Those consequences often revolve around food: in Zimbabwe
hunger is the
dictator's ally, it is easily manipulated. With so many rural
Zimbabweans
dependent on food aid, Mugabe threatens to cut food deliveries
from areas
that don't vote for his ruling Zanu-PF party (the government-run
grain
marketing board has a monopoly on all grain deliveries.)
To
ameliorate the effects of hyperinflation, now way over 100,000 per cent,
Mugabe gave teachers, soldiers, policemen and civil servants huge salary
increases, in the run up to these elections. For these elections he also
gerrymandered parliamentary constituencies, giving more seats to the
northern rural constituencies, his traditional bastion, and taking seats
away from the cities and from the south, both opposition strongholds. Mugabe
also used the police and the Central Intelligence Agency to harass and
intimidate the opposition, and he denied the opposition fair access to the
media – especially to radio and TV, which are already
state-controlled.
Finally, for stage one, in the week before the
election, the heads of the
security forces appeared on state media to tell
the nation that none of them
would allow any candidate, other than Robert
Mugabe, to rule Zimbabwe – in
effect, threatening a pre-emptive coup to keep
Mugabe in power if he lost
the vote.
The second stage takes place at
the ballot box itself. The voter's roles are
bloated with "ghost voters,"
thousands registered to a single shanty, or to
bogus addresses. Voters rolls
weren't made freely available to the
opposition to check. Many legitimate
voters (in known opposition areas)
found their names had been taken off the
rolls, and were unable to vote. As
were the Zimbabweans in the growing
diaspora, who are not allowed postal
votes. Almost 70 per cent of
Zimbabweans between the ages of 18 and 60 now
live and work outside the
country, most of whom support the opposition.
In the last two elections
these two stages of rigging have been enough to
get the "right" result for
Mugabe. But in last Saturday's poll, the swing
towards the opposition was so
great that these tactics did not, by
themselves, prevail. And so the
Zimbabwe Election Commission (run by a
former army officer and usually
reliably pro-Mugabe) was faced with stage
three
rigging.
Theoretically this is relatively simple. At the central counting
station,
figures are massaged to give the desired outcome. But in these
latest
elections, it wasn't so simple. For one thing, they were, for the
first time
"harmonised" elections – four different elections in one. Voters
filled in
ballots for parliament, senate and local wards, as well as
president. And
what really hamstrung Mugabe this time, was a provision in
the new electoral
laws that results (of all four counts) be posted on walls
on the 9,000
polling stations.
In the past, when rigging stages one
and two worked well, this wouldn't
really have mattered. But now suddenly it
does. Opposition representatives
went around photographing the posted
results, and collating them. Mugabe's
men were able to chase opposition
observers away from polling stations in
his heartlands, and it is for these
that Mugabe is able to manufacture
fictitious results, to swing the overall
results of the presidential
contest. But the Mugabe machine is not what it
was. The logistics are
creaking, and the once monolithic party is now
faction-ridden and beset by
internal succession feuds, undermining its
rigging operation, perhaps
fatally.
Peter Godwin is the author of
'When a Crocodile Eats the Sun', on the
collapse of Zimbabwe
The Telegraph
Last
Updated: 12:01am BST 02/04/2008
It appears that Robert
Mugabe was so heavily defeated in the weekend
elections in Zimbabwe that he
is undecided as to whether the effort of
rigging the result is actually
worth the candle.
Unconfirmed reports emerging from Harare late
yesterday even suggested
the 84-year-old despot may be negotiating an exit
strategy.
It would be foolhardy to write the man off, but, even if
he manages to
cling to office, his days are beginning to look numbered. His
departure
would be the cause of immense rejoicing, but would also present
the most
formidable challenge to Zimbabwe and the wider world.
Ideally, Mugabe would face trial. He has wrecked his once prosperous
country, though that is not a criminal offence under international law. In
the 1980s, his Fifth Brigade slaughtered 20,000 Ndebele civilians in
Matabeleland - and that almost certainly is.
Satisfying though
it would be to see Mugabe in handcuffs answering
charges of genocide, such a
precondition should not stand in the way of an
early departure. If immunity
from prosecution were the price for his leaving
peacefully, it is one worth
paying - no matter how distasteful the prospect.
As for the
rebuilding of Zimbabwe, the international community will
face a stern test.
As the former colonial power, Britain will be expected to
take
responsibility for leading the recovery operation.
With the
disaster of our unpreparedness for a post-Saddam Iraq still
being played
out, we trust that a clear and fully thought-through
post-Mugabe blueprint
is in place in the Foreign Office and Department for
International
Development.
Both the EU and America will be required to do the
heavy lifting on
the humanitarian front, for this is a country teetering on
the brink of
disaster. This would have the additional benefit of squeezing
out the
Chinese, who have shamelessly propped up Mugabe for
years.
The restoration of the economy will prove the longer-term
challenge.
With inflation currently standing at more than 100,000 per cent,
the IMF and
World Bank must act swiftly to stabilise the
currency.
Thereafter, economic reconstruction will revolve around
commercial
agriculture, which means restoring farms to the white owners
dispossessed
under Mugabe's catastrophic land ownership laws. Zimbabwe has
the capacity
to feed the whole of southern Africa, while its mineral wealth
is largely
unexploited.
And even Mugabe has not managed to
destroy the country's rather good
infrastructure. But all, ultimately, is
dependent on a successor regime that
can steer the country away from its
corrupt and self-destructive past and
allow it to fulfil its
potential.
Dawn
HARARE, April 1: Zimbabwean
leader Robert Mugabe is ready to step down after
he accepted he failed to
win the country’s presidential election, a senior
source in his ruling party
and diplomats said on Tuesday.
An official in Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party said
the president was prepared to
step down after 28 years in power but was
still trying to win agreement from
the army’s chief of staff Constantine
Chiwenga.
Three European diplomats meanwhile said opposition leader
Morgan Tsvangirai
was ready to deliver a press conference to confirm the
news.
“He is prepared to step down because he doesn’t want to embarrass
himself by
going to a run-off,” the ZANU-PF source said on condition of
anonymity.
“There is only one person still blocking him, the army chief
of staff.”
Senior diplomats in the capital Harare meanwhile confirmed that a
deal had
been done for Mugabe to step aside in favour of opposition leader
Morgan
Tsvangirai.
“Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power
smoothly,” said one of
the sources.
A second European diplomat said
that Tsvangirai had called a press
conference for later in the
evening.
“It (the press conference) indicates at least that Tsvangirai
feels secure
and that he has something to say.” Various sources had earlier
confirmed
that senior members of Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change
party and
aides to Mugabe had been holding negotiations about an exit
strategy since
Monday.
The talks opened after it became clear that
Mugabe, who has ruled the former
British colony since independence in 1980,
had been beaten in the
first-round of the presidential election which was
held simultaneously with
parliamentary elections on Saturday.
The
ruling party source said it now appeared that Tsvangirai had won around
48
percent of the vote — not enough for an outright majority — but that
Mugabe
did not want to suffer the indignity of going through a second round
run-off
with Tsvangirai later this month.
The MDC is confident that it has won
both the presidential and parliamentary
elections and is already slightly
ahead of ZANU-PF in the legislative count
with two-thirds of the results
declared.
However there has still been no official results from the
presidential
contest, prompting MDC accusations that the authorities were
desperately
trying to cook up a way to keep Mugabe in power.
While
there has so far been no significant violence in the aftermath of the
poll,
news that Mugabe was ready to step down came after a coalition of
rights
groups warned the country was teetering on the brink of anarchy.
In a
petition to the regional 14-member Southern African Development
Community
and the African Union, a coalition of 18 rights organisations
urged them to
exert pressure for the rapid announcement of the presidential
result.
“We... have found it necessary to send this urgent petition
to your
excellencies in order to save our country from potentially sinking
into
complete anarchy if election results are manipulated,” the petition
said.
The elections were held as Zimbabwe grapples with an inflation rate
of over
100,000 percent and widespread shortages of even basic foodstuffs
such as
bread and cooking oil.
The 84-year-old Mugabe, Africa’s
oldest leader, has blamed the economic woes
on the European Union and the
United States, which imposed sanctions on his
inner circle after he was
accused of rigging his 2002 re-election.—AFP
africasia
02/04/2008 05:31 HARARE, April 2 (AFP)
A run-off is likely in
Zimbabwe's presidential elections with none of the
candidates in last
weekend's polls expected to garner more than 50 percent
of the vote, a state
daily said Wednesday.
"The pattern of results in the presidential
election show that none of the
candidates will garner more than 50 percent
of the votes, forcing a re-run,"
said The Herald newspaper, quoting
analysts.
VOA
By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C.
02
April 2008
Zimbabwe’s main opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) led by
Morgan Tsvangirai says it is prepared to defeat
incumbent President Robert
Mugabe in a possible election run-off. The
opposition party says although
election results so far released indicate it
is ahead of the ruling ZANU-PF
party, it fears the rest of the results could
be rigged in favor of
President Mugabe.
The latest presidential
results released by Zimbabwe’s Electoral Commission
(ZEC) put the MDC in
first place, 49 percent to 42 percent for ZANU-PF, and
independent
presidential candidate Simba Makoni following at a distant third
with about
8 percent.
From the capital, Harare, MDC spokesman Tendai Biti tells
reporter Peter
Clottey that he believes the opposition will win any possible
run-off.
“As far as we are concerned from the collection and coalition of
results we
ourselves have gathered, we have won 55 percent of the votes
after the 210
seats are counted. That means that there wouldn’t be a
run-off. But however,
election results are still coming in and results are
being doctored,
particularly in Mashonaland central, so there is a
possibility of the
election being rigged. But even if it’s rigged I think
the worst-case
scenario is a run-off,” Biti pointed out.
He said the
opposition party is ready to defeat incumbent Mugabe under any
circumstances.
“We took him on last weekend, and we beat him. So we
will beat him in the
air, we will beat him in the water. We will beat him in
the sea, we will
beat in the bed, and we will beat him in the sky,” he
said.
Biti said the MDC would welcome with open arms any of the other
opposition
parties ahead of a possible run-off to present a united front
against the
ruling ZANU-PF party.
“The fact of the matter is everyone
who stood against Mugabe, any party
other than the ZANU-PF, stands for
change and democracy in Zimbabwe. So I
can’t see any reason why people
should not get together to fight Robert
Mugabe. The number one problem in
Zimbabwe is Robert Mugabe and the system
that he has created. We are tired
of it. There are no jobs. There is no
food. People are dying, and people are
hungry,” Biti noted.
He said it is true that President Mugabe will not
hand over power to the
opposition easily.
“That is very correct. He
has not handed power easily over the last 28
years. He was beaten in 2002,
and he was beaten in 2005. Right now the
election took place on Saturday. It
is now Wednesday, and he has not
announced the results. So, yes, he is a
dictator, and he will not hand over
power easily. That is a fact,” he
said.
Biti said the opposition party aims to rebuild the country and to
restore
its political and economic clout in the South Africa
sub-region.
“The aim of the MDC is to rehabilitate our country, and to
give jobs and to
provide for the people and to bring back respect to our
people,” Biti said.
Meanwhile, the leader of the MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai,
and the Mugabe
government are reportedly denying speculation that they were
in talks to
arrange Mugabe’s resignation after last weekend's election.
The Times
April 2, 2008
Catherine Philp in Harare and Jonathan Clayton in
Johannesburg
The ruinous reign of Robert Mugabe was drawing to a close last
night as
aides worked to secure him a facesaving exit after defeat at the
polls.
Talks began after Mr Mugabe’s closest cohorts gathered at State
House to
inform him that he had not only failed to win an outright victory
in the
weekend’s presidential election, but was beaten into second place by
his
challenger.
Late last night Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the
opposition Movement for
Democratic Change, refused to declare victory but
told reporters that he had
achieved “above the constitutional requirement”
to avoid a run-off.
He vowed to wait for the Election Commission to
announce official results
before declaring victory, raising suspicions that
a deal with Mr Mugabe was
already in place.
Mr Tsvangirai dismissed
the delay as irrelevant, suggesting that he no
longer feared vote rigging.
“The people of Zimbabwe have waited this long.
They can wait far, far
longer,” he said.
South Africa was leading the behind-the-scenes negotiations
on a
power-sharing deal in which a member of Mr Mugabe’s ruling Zanu (PF)
party
would assume a vice-presidential position. Such a deal would also
ensure
that Mr Mugabe retained immunity from prosecution for any crimes
committed
during his authoritarian rule.
“It is over for Mugabe. No
one is now talking about him staying on, just
somehow finding a graceful
exit,” a diplomat said.
Even Mr Mugabe’s own colleagues admitted that the
regime was witnessing its
final moments. “He [Mugabe] is prepared to step
down because he doesn’t want
to embarrass himself by going to a run-off,” a
Zanu (PF) official said.
“There is only one person still blocking him — the
army chief of staff.”
On Saturday Mr Mugabe had dismissed talk of a
second round, saying that such
a move was unheard of in Zimbabwe. “We knock
each other out in the first
round,” he said. But his defeat was testing his
pride. “He considers this to
be a huge insult, he is a proud man and needs
an exit strategy,” a source
close to the talks said.
According to
Western diplomats the man tipped to become the vice-president
to secure Mr
Mugabe’s safe retirement is Dumiso Dabengwa, the Zanu (PF)
former Home
Affairs Minister, who defected from the party five weeks ago.
He was part
of a group of senior politburo members who, after years of
discontent with
Mr Mugabe’s rule, decided to mount their own challenge.
Having failed to
replace him as the party’s candidate, they chose a
colleague, Simba Makoni,
the former Finance Minister, to stand against the
President. Mr Makoni’s
entry into the presidential race peeled votes away
from the ageing leader,
splitting the Zanu (PF) vote to Mr Tsvangirai’s
advantage.
At the
same time, growing desperation over the country’s freefalling economy
and
population decline energised the population to get out and vote for the
opposition.
Mr Mugabe’s rule began to unravel on Sunday as the MDC
began releasing
results that it had collected from individual polling
stations, indicating
the scale of its lead. Security chiefs then met members
of the Election
Commission. When they were told that President Mugabe was
heading for
defeat, the security chiefs ordered them to trickle out the
results one by
one, announcing one each to the ruling party and the MDC and
leaving hours
between announcements.
The delay caused alarm across
the globe, with Britain, the US and the
European Union insisting that the
results be released immediately.
Yesterday afternoon the ruling party
leaked its own projections that handed
Mr Tsvangirai victory. MDC members
spent the day speaking to the Zanu (PF)
politburo to convince them that they
must accept the results, offering
incentives such as immunity or government
positions to do so.
Diplomats said that nothing would be made official
until a deal was
finalised. Mr Dabengwa, who met The Times in Matabeleland
last week, denied
the reports that he was to become vice-president. But
diplomats said that he
was the ideal candidate for the job. Mr Dabengwa told
The Times that he did
not support putting Mr Mugabe on trial for the alleged
human rights abuses
of the past, noting that Ian Smith, the white Rhodesian
former leader, had
been allowed to go quietly after Zimbabwe won its
independence from Britain
in 1980.
The Australian
Mark Dodd
| April 02, 2008
THE situation in Zimbabwe remains tense but calm with no
indications so far
of any violence, Australian High Commission officials in
Harare have told
Foreign Minister Stephen Smith.
Mr Smith said he had
spoken overnight to British Foreign Secretary David
Miliband on the Zimbabwe
situation after calls yesterday with his African
counterparts.
But it
was still difficult - even for diplomats - to get a true assessment
of what
was happening in Zimbabwe following the March 29 election.
Official
election results so far have Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for
Democratic
Change (MDC) level-pegging Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF Party, both
holding 85
seats with results for another 35 seats yet to be declared.
“It is also
the case that not just our mission but other missions - the
United States
and the United Kingdom are also having difficulty in getting a
clear picture
of events as they emerge,” Mr Smith said.
“It's important to monitor
events as they unfold and not to get too far
ahead of
ourselves.
“Everyone remains very concerned - very very concerned that Mr
Mugabe by
fair means or foul may well try and steal this
election.”
It was quite clear that the opposition had done very well so
far and that Mr
Tsvangirai - despite all the difficult circumstances he had
faced during the
election process had also done very well, he
said.
The figures indicated Mr Mugabe had failed in his bid to secure the
two-thirds majority vote required to change the country's
constitution.
There were no indications so far Zimbabwe's military were
going to intervene
in support of Mr Mugabe but this could not be ruled out
later.
“Whether that is the eventual outcome, time will tell,” Mr Smith
said.
“We certainly hope there is no military intervention.”
The
international community should continue to pressure the Mugabe regime to
ensure it respected the ballot result, Mr Smith said, adding that Australia
was standing by to offer significant aid in the event of Zimbabwe's return
to the democratic fold.
news.com.au
By staff writers and
wires
April 02, 2008 11:53am
AUSTRALIA is ready to help any new
government in Zimbabwe committed to
respecting the will of its people,
Foreign Minister Stephen Smith says.
Mr Smith said today he had spoken to
his counterparts overseas, including
British Foreign Secretary David
Miliband.
He told Mr Miliband overnight that Australia would seek to help
a new
Zimbabwe government if one was formed.
"We want to see an
orderly and peaceful outcome to the election," Mr Smith
said.
"We
want the election result to be verified and the will of the people
respected. If there is a transition to a new government, then the Australian
Government will work closely and carefully with any new government which
seeks to respect the will of the Zimbabwean people."
Australia would
be happy to work with a government that did not oppress its
people.
Mr Smith said he would speak to the foreign ministers of
South Africa,
Zambia and Tanzania later.
He said it was apparent
long-time Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe had tried
to "steal" the
election.
"Obviously what it occurring here is, on the part of the
opposition, an
attempt to ensure the democratic will of the Zimbabwean
people is respected
and to seek to effect an orderly transition to a new
government," Mr Smith
said.
"Obviously it's clear that Mr Mugabe, for
some time, has been wanting to
resist that. His attempt to steal the
election has largely been through a
delay in the election outcome rather
than through military force or military
means."
It was up to the
international community to pressure Mr Mugabe.
"What we now need to do is
make the point crystal-clear that we want the
will of the Zimbabwean people
to be respected.
"We want the election result published as quickly as
possible and we want
all pressure placed on Mr Mugabe to prevent him from
seeking to steal the
election."
Mr Smith said he had also spoken to
Australia's high commissioner in
Zimbabwe.
"I'm told that things are
calm, tense but calm, no indications at this stage
of any
violence."
- With AAP
National Post
Rumours of Mugabe's
political demise swirl
Peter Goodspeed, Canwest News Service Published:
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Has Zimbabwe's opposition succeeded in pushing
Robert Mugabe out of power?
Africa's Hitler may finally be losing his
nerve.
Tuesday night, Zimbabwe was abuzz with rumours that Robert
Mugabe's security
henchmen are deep into negotiations with opposition
leaders and South
African diplomats to push the 84-year-old President into a
face-saving and
prosecution-free retirement.
As it becomes
increasingly evident that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
may have won
last Saturday's presidential election, some of his top advisors
are said to
have made informal contacts with Mr. Mugabe's security officials
to discuss
a transition of power.
Not that anyone connected with the deal is willing
to be identified until a
bargain is signed, sealed and delivered.
In
Zimbabwe, its not safe to assume Mr. Mugabe will or will not do
anything.
But while there is no immediate indication Mr. Mugabe is
preparing to step
down, the mere fact his henchmen considered a transition
plan points to the
fact that his support within the ruling ZANU-PF party may
be eroding
rapidly.
That wasn't the case five years ago, when Mr.
Mugabe's opponents staged a
general strike to protest his tyrannical rule
and the government's invasion
and seizure of white-owned farms.
Back
then, when people first began talking of pushing Mr. Mugabe from power,
Zimbabwe's President threatened to lash out at his critics for even
considering the idea.
In 2003, Mr. Mugabe attended the state funeral
of a thuggish cabinet
minister, Chenjerai Hunzvi, who led the war veterans
group that spearheaded
the violent seizures of white-owned
farms.
Speaking at the funeral, Mr. Mugabe noted that Mr. Hunzvi had
adopted the
nickname "Hitler," because he admired the Nazi dictator's use of
force and
despised the British. Then with all the sinister overtones his
deep rumbling
teacher's voice could project, Mr. Mugabe added: "I am still
the Hitler of
the time."
"This Hitler has only one objective: justice
for his people, sovereignty for
his people, recognition of the independence
of his people and their rights
over their resources.
"If that is
Hitler, then let me be a Hitler tenfold," Mr. Mugabe added. "Ten
times, that
is what we stand for."
Any vagueness in his meaning was swept away when
police launched a violent
political crackdown the following
day.
Dozens of opposition leaders were beaten and arrested and more than
250
government critics were injured by rampaging security
forces.
That Mr. Mugabe should so publicly identify himself with Hitler
was
indicative of both his arrogance and his desire to court
controversy.
But it was also a shrewd analysis of his own political
career.
Like Hitler, Mr. Mugabe swept to power in 1980 on a tide of
popular support
and raw nationalist feeling.
Like Hitler, he promised
to make his countrymen proud of their nation.
Like Hitler, he never
hesitated to use violence, murder and mayhem to reach
his goals.
And
Like Hitler, when his plans began to unravel, as he almost
single-handedly
destroyed Zimbabwe's economy, Mr. Mugabe conjured up a
racial scapegoat --
white farmers -- to pin the blame on.
After 28 ruthless years in power,
Mr. Mugabe has presided over the most
dramatic collapse of any country in
history since Weimar Germany.
Now, as it becomes obvious his own people
have turned against him and the
country could descend into civil war if he
tries to declare himself the
winner of last week's election, Mr. Mugabe and
his supporters are
considering their alternatives.
Suicide is not an
option, unless Mr. Mugabe tries to cling to power by
force.
He is
also said to regard participating in a second-round run-off election
three
weeks from now as demeaning.
His only alternative may be to delay
announcing the final results of
Saturday's vote while secretly negotiating a
safe, comfortable retirement.
South Africa, which has long supported Mr.
Mugabe in return for his
assistance to the African National Congress during
the anti-apartheid
struggle, has a national interest in maintaining a stable
Zimbabwe on its
northern border.
After years of hesitation, South
African President Thabo Mbeki may now be
ready to step in and guarantee Mr.
Mugabe a comfortable exile, perhaps
disguised as an indefinite form of
medical treatment, in exchange for a
transitional power-sharing agreement
between Zimbabwe's political parties.
Mr. Mugabe might opt to go to
another neighbouring country, but his
movements are severely limited by
existing international sanctions.
The threat of being charged with war
crimes and crimes against humanity for
his tyrannical rule may also give Mr.
Mugabe pause to reflect on stepping
down.
His involvement in the 1983
killing of 20,000 people during a political
uprising in Matebeleland in
southern Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe's deployment of
troops in the Democratic
Republic of Congo's second civil war, which
resulted in the deaths of nearly
2 million people, could come back to haunt
him.
Mr. Mugabe's own
supporters will also want to retain as much of the loot
they obtained from a
Mugabe administration that was renowned for endemic
corruption.
But
time is running out. Zimbabwe's voters are demanding to know the results
of
an election they are sure will defeat Mr. Mugabe and, with the United
States
and several European countries, are pressing Zimbabwe officials and
countries like South Africa to resolve the crisis quickly.
Tuesday's
rumours of a pending retirement deal may have just been the
shuddering first
movements of Zimbabwe's security forces reassessing their
own future, now
that Africa's Hitler is hiding in his bunker.
National Post
The Telegraph
Posted by David
Blair on 01 Apr 2008 at 11:01
What can we make of events in Zimbabwe?
Voting took place on Saturday, yet
as of this morning, no results for the
presidential poll had been disclosed.
Instead, the Election Commission has
concentrated on the parliamentary
election which was held simultaneously,
declaring 109 of the 210 seats so
far.
I think the gameplan is pretty
clear. The Election Commission is not
releasing the results as and when they
become available. Instead, it already
knows the outcome of these elections.
The aim is to manage their disclosure
so as to head off popular unrest and
prepare the ground for a Mugabe
victory.
So results showing Zanu-PF
and the MDC will be dripped out, before Zanu-PF
gradually nose
ahead.
Mugabe’s military leaders, forming the Joint Operations Command
(JOC), met
him on Sunday night and came up with this plan. In today’s
Guardian, Chris
McGreal has a clear and credible account of what transpired
at this crucial
meeting.
“In the JOC meeting there were two options
for Mugabe: to declare victory on
Sunday or declare martial law," said the
diplomat. "They did not consider
conceding. We understand Mugabe nearly
decided to declare victory. Cooler
heads prevailed. It was decided to use
the [election commission] process of
drip, drip where you release results
over a long period, giving the
opposition gains at first but as time wears
on Zanu-PF pulls ahead.”
So the ground is being prepared for Mugabe to
declare a (rigged) victory.
Zimbabwe’s tragedy continues.
Posted by
David Blair on 01 Apr 2008 at 11:01
Independent, UK
By
Basildon Peta in Johannesburg
Wednesday, 2 April 2008
Even though it
appears that Robert Mugabe has been resoundingly defeated, he
is determined
to dictate the terms of his departure.
If his chief opponent Morgan
Tsvangirai does not concede defeat, then Mr
Mugabe will dig in his heels and
remain ensconced in the state house. The
great uncertainty is whether the
people of Zimbabwe will allow him to do
that this time round.
As the
third day passed yesterday with no official word on the outcome of
the
presidential election it seemed that the horse-trading was under way to
allow Mr Mugabe a dignified exit from power. After keeping mum for two days
Mr Tsvangirai finally spoke last night urging the authorities to "proceed
with haste" to announce the presidential result. He is the one who stands to
lose if the failure to announce the electoral outcome allows Mr Mugabe to
manipulate the vote.
The delay has fuelled Harare's rumour mill. One
improbable theory was that
Mr Mugabe would be given a passage into exile,
possibly to his home in
Malaysia. Knowing Mr Mugabe as I do I can safely say
this is implausible. Mr
Mugabe will not simply allow himself to be
humiliated in such a way. Yes, he
probably realises that the game is over.
But he won't go in humiliation. It
seems his supporters in the army are
urging him to dig in his heels.
The most probable scenario, as I see it,
is that Mr Mugabe will try to force
the presidential election into a
run-off. If that happens anything is
possible. He might still rig the
outcome or as one of his officials whom I
spoke to yesterday suggested, he
might give way for another candidate and
rig the election for him. The
situation remains fuzzy.
If he is to get his way Mr Tsvangirai will have
to make a lot of concessions
to the 84-year old-dictator. That means all
talk of taking Mr Mugabe before
an international criminal court and
prosecuting his cronies, with whom he
has destroyed Zimbabwe, will have to
be dropped.
The worst-case scenario is Mr Mugabe's handpicked electoral
commission
declaring him the victor in the presidential contest with a 51
per cent
margin, effectively nullifying Mr Tsvangirai's apparent victory.
God forbid.
The consequences of that are too ghastly to contemplate.
The Telegraph
By
Sebastien Berger in Harare
Last Updated: 12:01am BST
02/04/2008
Worldstage
In any normal
democracy where most people were unemployed, inflation
was running at over
100,000 per cent, and a third of the population needed
food aid, the
government would be voted out by a landslide at the first
opportunity.
But Robert Mugabe has led Zimbabwe for 28 years,
and, leaving aside
questions of the legitimacy of past elections,
projections from last
weekend's ballot show him receiving more than 40 per
cent of the vote.
It is a mark of Mr Mugabe's brilliance as a
propagandist that he has
managed to persuade millions of people in his own
country and across Africa
that it has been the EU's measures against him -
an asset freeze and a visa
ban - that have somehow wrecked a once productive
land, not his reckless
rule.
While the outside world waits for
him to be toppled - unconfirmed
sources say talks have been taking place
between Zanu-PF and the opposition
MDC with a view to the president stepping
down - it is still possible to
find stalwart Mugabe supporters.
Father Fidelis Mukonori, a Jesuit who acts as the chaplain to Mr
Mugabe and
his family, is one. The priest has known Mr Mugabe for decades,
from the
time of the war against Ian Smith's regime, when he was an
international
representative for him.
During the struggle, he would travel the
country, free to do so as a
Catholic priest, gathering information for the
guerrilla commander. Since
independence in 1980, he has given the blessing
at every celebration of the
anniversary. He is resolute in his affirmation
of what Mugabe has given the
nation.
"What has given birth to
Zimbabwe is what matters," he said. "Identity
is not something to do with
how much breakfast you eat or the house you
sleep in; it's to do with the
dignity of oneself as a human being and
oneself as a nation.
"Zimbabweans will say we were liberated and became a people in 1980,"
he
continues. "It does not mean that we do not see the inadequacies of
Zanu-PF
or Mugabe. But that is not the issue. What is essential is what it
means to
be a people. When people rally behind someone, for some that
individual is
an autocrat, for some he is a demagogue, for some he is a
dictator, and for
some, they say: 'He is my leader'."
This attitude is typical of
nations across Africa, where independence
movements have gone on to govern
for decades after throwing off the colonial
yoke. While many have turned
themselves into one-party states, winning
freedom has also earned their
leaders unwavering support from their people.
This is something that matters
in Zimbabwe.
George Kaere is a successful businessman in Harare who
perfectly
understands the loyalty Mugabe often inspires: "Zanu-PF fought for
this
country, brought independence. Then it gave power to the people. We are
the
beneficiaries of empowerment through land and through
indigenisation."
He is a true believer, a member of the party since
1993. The
34-year-old is also a beneficiary of Zanu-PF's rule. He was
working as a
safari guide in 2002 when he was allocated 50 acres of land in
Shamva, 60
miles north-east of Harare, from a white-owned farm.
"At times, I feel sorry for them," he said of Zimbabwe's dispossessed
white
farmers, "but most of them were arrogant. Land has been the cause of
conflict since Moses, Abraham and Joshua. Now everybody in Zimbabwe has got
land."
He has also been given about £15,000 worth of farming
equipment and
soft loans over the years, which may explain his unswerving
adherence to the
party line. He now grows maize and soybean on his farm, and
employs six
people in his agricultural hardware shop and an upholstery
business in the
capital.
"There's nothing that can stop me
supporting Mugabe," he says. "I
think he has been the best leader in Africa
in terms of defending the
sovereignty of his country and the interests of
his people. Some African
leaders bow down to the West."
Echoing
his leader, he blames Zimbabwe's economic woes on the West.
"This impasse
between Britain and the government here, people sympathise
with Mugabe
because of what is happening."
It seems that sympathy may be
running out, however, as MDC remains
steady with Zanu-PF in the
parliamentary elections, and in the presidential
election, opposition
candidate Morgan Tsvangirai leads the race.
Mr Kaere disgrees,
dismissing the MDC as "puppets of the West … Right
now they are just getting
votes because people are frustrated."
But it seems Zimbabweans are
so frustrated that their message may
finally be getting through - Robert
Mugabe's reign must come to an end.
Would that it isn't a violent
one.
Time
Tuesday, Apr. 01, 2008 By ALEX
PERRY
As recently as Monday, the idea of President Robert Mugabe
voluntarily
giving up power after 28 years was unthinkable for all but the
sunniest of
optimists. By Tuesday, there were persistent reports — though
denied by the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (M.D.C.) and the
government — that
members of his regime, especially its security services,
were negotiating a
handover of power and immunity from prosecution for the
regime's crimes.
Three days after a general election whose results have yet
to be announced,
the prospect of a peaceful exit by the country's longtime
leader seems to be
growing. And that prompts the question: What would a
post-Mugabe Zimbabwe be
like?
So deep is the socio-economic crisis
over which Mugabe has presided that the
84-year-old's departure would not,
in itself, fix Zimbabwe. But it would be
an important first step. With
Mugabe gone and a new, less repressive and
autocratic regime in the offing —
either one formed by the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change, or a
multi-party national unity government —
the international community, and
particularly institutions such as the World
Bank and the International
Monetary Fund, would likely renew their
engagement with Zimbabwe.
Several
years of 80% unemployment and raging inflation (now 100,000%) has
left
Zimbabwe's short-term infrastructure gutted, amid desperate shortages
of
everything from telephone wires to stocks of fuel and food — as well as a
viable currency. So rapid has been Zimbabwe's decline, however, that much of
its more permanent infrastructure — roads, buildings, and the education
system — remains intact. While getting Zimbabwe back on its feet would
require a comprehensive program to repair the lighter infrastructure and
replace the Zimbabwe dollar, at least temporarily, with a more stable
foreign currency, results could be seen fairly quickly. Zimbabwe does not
need the kind of major infrastructural overhaul required in other African
countries, such as Somalia or the Democratic Republic of Congo. That may be
why at least one investment fund, LonZim, run by the Lonrho group, announced
last November that it was looking to raise more than �70 million to invest
in Zimbabwe.
The other question surrounding Mugabe's possible exit
is: What would it do
for Africa? Answer: Possibly even more than it will do
for Zimbabwe. Mugabe
is one of the last African Big Men, from the generation
of leaders who won
independence from white or colonial rule in Africa, but
who, once in power,
often applied the same standards of rapacious
authoritarianism. That era is
coming to an end. Mobutu Sese Seko is gone
from the Congo; Uganda's Idi Amin
went long ago. Autocratic regimes remain
in place in Equatorial Guinea and
Sudan, but democracy is becoming the norm
in much of Africa — and with it,
not coincidentally, has come peace. (The
recent violence in Kenya, while
horrifying, can also be read as a refusal by
the population to accept their
rulers' tyranny.) Mugabe's departure would
signal the closing of an era not
just for a country, but for a continent.
Any immunity deal he managed to
negotiate might frustrate human rights
advocates who want to hold Mugabe to
account for abuses during his rule —
particularly the massacre of tens of
thousands of villagers in the
opposition stronghold of Matabeleland during
the 1980s — via the
International Criminal Court in The Hague. But immunity
deals don't always
hold. The arrest and trial in The Hague of former
Liberian President Charles
Taylor, even after he was promised immunity as
part of the deal that eased
him into exile in Nigeria, is obviously weighing
on the discussions between
Mugabe's regime and the opposition, mediated by
South Africa's President
Thabo Mbeki.
Words like "momentous" and "historic" are being used by
international
journalists to describe the events in Zimbabwe. And that may
not be
hyperbole. If the reports prove true that Mugabe is on his way out,
Zimbabwe
may well be about to experience nothing short of a rebirth.
VOA
By Jonga Kandemiiri
Washington
01 April
2008
Shortages of the Zimbabwean staple maize meal, bread
and sugar have worsened
in the immediate aftermath of the country's
elections, with lines growing
outside bakeries and grain milling
establishments as consumers wait in hope
of deliveries.
But such
essential commodities are mostly found these days on the parallel
market at
nominally staggering prices - Z$400 million (US$7) for a 10-kilo
bag of
maize meal and Z$20 million for a loaf of bread. Inflation is running
well
over 100,000%.
Sources familiar with the marketplace said one reason food
has become more
scarce is that the government has stopped distributing food
as pre-election
largesse.
Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce
President Marah Hativagone told
reporter Jonga Kandemiiri of VOA's Studio 7
for Zimbabwe that the situation
might take a while to improve because many
businesses are waiting for the
political picture to clear.
Results of
the March 29 presidential and general elections have not yet
officially been
released, but most parliamentary and local election winners
have been
established.
Business Day
: 02 April 2008
Wilson Johwa
Political Correspondent
DEMOCRATIC
Alliance (DA) MP Dianne Kohler Barnard says she fears that
subversion of
election results in Zimbabwe could be the last straw. People
could lose hope
of escaping the hardship prevailing there.
Kohler Barnard, part
of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)
election observer
mission to Zimbabwe, returned to SA yesterday after
refusing to sign the
mission’s report proclaiming the electoral environment
a “credible
reflection of the will of the people of
Zimbabwe”.
“The people have such hope,” she
said. “I fear if victory was snatched from
them in (the) face of
overwhelming evidence that they won this election … I
fear they will finally
crack.
“I think they are a very peaceful people, but I think this
will be the final
straw, and I am very fearful of Zimbabwe in three days’
time.”
But Kohler Barnard felt the proposal to send
peacekeepers to Zimbabwe was
premature.
The African National Congress
and the Young Communist League urged
deployment of troops to Zimbabwe to
avert a Kenya-type situation.
She said endorsing the SADC observer
mission’s proclamation would have made
a mockery of SADC’s 13 election
principles. Only two were adhered to. “The
rest were blatantly ignored,”
said Kohler Barnard, who also observed
Zimbabwe’s 2005 parliamentary
election.
President Robert Mugabe had a near monopoly on
television coverage.
Journalists got away with blatantly endorsing his
candidacy, she said.
There was a peculiar emptiness about
Zimbabwe, particularly with farms no
longer in use. “The country has
reverted to bush. They will have to start
from scratch,” she
said.
Food was in such short supply that fat people were
rare.
She criticised the make-up of SA’s observer team, saying it
was composed
mainly of public servants instead of politicians, who were
better placed to
monitor elections. Most group members were naive and unable
or unwilling to
see through the showmanship.
There were
too many polling stations in the rural areas, leaving polling
officers there
to “twiddle their thumbs”. But it was different in urban
areas where,
despite long queues, many were determined to vote.
Counting
in polling stations was “immaculate”, and in some polling stations
this was
overseen by observers.
However, the involvement of observers ceased at
the end of polling day when
the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission took
over.
Most observers were already making their way home after the expiry
of their
mandate on Saturday.
BBC
02:53 GMT, Wednesday, 2 April 2008
Zimbabweans living in the UK are waiting for the outcome of the
country's
elections with baited breath.
Who has won? Will Robert
Mugabe stand down? And whoever wins, what can be
done to drag the country
out of its economic downward spiral?
Alois Mbawara is National
Co-ordinator for the Free Zimbabwe Youth Movement,
based in London. He's
worried Zimbabwe's troubles could be about to get even
worse.
"We
have been closely watching this and we are very concerned. The process
has
not been going as we had hoped. It could turn into another situation
like
Kenya."
Alois, who's 26, has lived in the UK for five years and was one
of the
activists who took part in a Zimbabwe pro-democracy demonstration in
London
on Saturday.
He called on intervention from the African Union
and international
community.
"I don't think the Mugabe regime will
accept defeat," he warned. "It is very
important that there are negotiations
between the parties.
Others allow themselves some cautious
optimism.
Georgina Godwin, a Zimbabwean journalist and broadcaster,
used to have her
own TV and radio shows on the Zimbabwe Broadcasting
Corporation. She left in
2001 and faces arrest if she returns.
"I have
been tearful for the past three days. My whole life has been focused
on this
for the past eight years," she says.
"It's so huge and I can't believe
once again we may be cheated out of it.
"It would be fantastic if the
opposition win. It is time to rebuild, but one
of the problems is that so
many of the people in power have so much to lose,
particularly
financially.
"Everyone has been disappointed so many times before that
one finds it
difficult to be hopeful - but I am hopeful."
Jennings
Rukani is a Zimbabwean who has lived in Manchester for the past
nine years.
He is desperate to go home.
"I love my country and my people and we want
to see democracy prevail."
Jennings is chairman of the organisation
representing the Zimbabwe
Independent candidate Simba Makoni in the
UK.
"It is quite clear that Zanu-PF are trying to rig the elections. We
want
democracy. If Morgan Tsvangirai has won, myself and my colleagues would
support him."
Jennings said he is finding it difficult to sleep
because he feels so
passionate about the election results.
"A lot of
people say if the election results are rigged the country will
explode. The
Zimbabwe people are peace loving but their patience is being
tested to the
limit. The anger that has been building up for the past 10
years is likely
to explode."
Philip Chikwiramakomo hopes for more than just a change of
president. He's
the co-ordinator of a UK-based charity, which raises funds
for educational
projects in Zimbabwe.
"A change of president is not
enough," he says.
"It would give a breathing space. But it is a first
step, a foundation, it
doesn't mean the Zimbabwe people would be
free.
"If change does come, stabilising the economy is essential - there
is a lot
of starvation and suffering.
"It would be important to have
a constitution that guarantees the rights of
each and every Zimbabwean
regardless of their gender, races, sexuality or
tribe."
Stella
Maravanyika, 65, was a human rights activist in Zimbabwe until 2000.
She
left the country when her life was threatened, and she's now working
with
Zimbabwean asylum seekers in London.
She said: "People were so
optimistic, but Mugabe is playing around.
"And if the government doesn't
change, then it would be very difficult for
any of the Zimbabwean people who
are presently in the UK to ever go back
home again and live under a Mugabe
government."