• Tsvangirai speaks
• JAG Open Letters Forum No. 119
• Cash Crisis: Thorough Probe Needed
• Admissions of guilt
• Focus on the extent of the brain drain
• Group Alleges Zimbabwe Opposition Candidates Pressured Against Running in Upcoming Election
• Theft of electrical transmitters leaves suburbs in darkness
• Service stations to import own fuel
• British Tycoon to Get New Trial

The Herald (Harare)

July 23, 2003
Posted to the web July 23, 2003

Harare

THE Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe last week announced that it had injected into
the banking system $12 billion in new $500 notes. This is supposed to be the
last tranche of the $24 billion which the central bank said it would release
into the system in May.

But the crisis it seems, is far from over.

The long-winding queues at banks and building societies are still the order
of the day.

Everyone had hoped that this injection of cash would result in a reduction
of queues at financial institutions and an increase of withdrawal limits
that had drastically gone down to between $5 000 and $10 000 per account
holder.

The question to be answered is: Where are those billions that have been
injected into the market? If anything, money has become more scarce. Clients
are still being turned away by banks and building societies for lack of
money.

Could it be that demand has far outstripped supply; or are people hiding the
money under their mattresses to cushion themselves against unforeseen cash
crises in the future? We hope not.

Some economic analysts have come up with different views on how and why the
crisis evolved, with some blaming the central bank and others saying the
issue was more complicated.

There is no doubt that some external forces could be involved in exploiting
the situation by mopping up the cash on the market and worsening the
situation thus causing chaos. A cash crisis is the worst form of shortage as
life virtually comes to a standstill.

We have said time and again that the Reserve Bank needs to do a thorough
investigation into the whole issue. Whatever the case may be, there is need
for a definite policy intervention to get to the bottom of the issue. Things
have to get back to normal.

The operations of banks should be reviewed to give incentives to depositors
instead of penalising them for banking huge sums. We feel the crisis is
uncalled for but it has happened. If the responsible authorities don't act
promptly they will create a vacuum and other forces will exploit that for
selfish reasons.

It is not a healthy situation where people spend endless hours in queues to
withdraw money. In most cases, they go home empty-handed as money would have
run out. The shortage of bank notes may have well created permanent changes
in the way people regard plastic money and might well have created that
critical mass of card-wielding consumers that makes widespread distribution
of swipe machines, coupled with low charges, a viable proposition.

Zimbabwe has a very sophisticated banking structure and there is no need for
anyone to be carrying huge stakes of money. Savings have been dwindling over
the past few years due to the hyper-inflationary environment.

People are no longer saving for the future. It is now up to the banks to
come up with policies that encourage savings. People should have a feeling
of security which will encourage them to save for the future.

The chaos in the banking sector is causing extensive damage to Zimbabwe's
already battered image and quick action is needed to convince investors that
the country is capable of solving any crisis expeditiously.

Admissions of guilt

By Michael Hartnack

The general response by black Zimbabweans to the dire conditions in which
they try to survive, and to the hate-speech against minorities with which
they are daily bombarded, must constitute final, irrevocable proof that
apartheid was unjustified and unjustifiable. The overall refusal by
Zimbabweans to give way to hate-crimes against officially-designated
scapegoats - whites, Jews, Asians, homosexuals - is the great "positive"
news, to which we, the media, do not give sufficient prominence. Indeed,
thanks to the fortitude and the spirit of the people, it is clear to most
Zimbabweans that this is only what Shakespeare might have called "A Time of
Needful Woe". How long it will take for this phase to pass, and for us to
recover from it, is another issue. This past week, inflation officially
reached 365,4 percent. Two undertakers were arrested for hiring out bodies
to conmen to obtain emergency supplies of diesel through bogus rural burial
orders - my garage has had fuel once in three months. A company belonging to
a ruling Zanu PF party member of Parliament is openly selling "coupons" to
buy a minimum 200 litres of petrol from his filling stations. His pumps are
marked: $450/litre (the controlled price), but attendants will serve no one
without the coupons. Police "invited" four major bakeries to pay $20 million
Admission of Guilt fines for charging $700 a loaf for bread (instead of the
hopelessly below cost of production $255 controlled price). Others still
sell loaves for $1 000-$1 200.

An extraordinary Admission of Guilt, but of a different kind, was signed by
the Zimbabwe Council of Churches just as Zimbabweans might again have been
asking themselves: "How did we get in this mess? 'Who sinned?'" The ZCC
admitted its own sinfulness but in language so guarded that it exposed
itself to further censure. The ZCC also associated itself with a bizarre
statement issued with the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops' Conference and the
Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe. The ZCC, Catholic bishops and the
Evangelicals made no attempt to attribute blame for violence, corruption, or
economic collapse. Instead, they urged Christians to pray for a resumption
of dialogue between Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement
for Democratic Change (which assumes South African President Thabo Mbeki was
wrong in telling President George Bush talks are taking place now).
However,the ZCC, the Catholic bishops and the Evangelicals told "the press
to desist from manipulative and speculative reporting.'' "The Church," it
declared (as if there were only one) "remained united in its resolve to
pursue the route of a peaceful, mediated settlement, which will bring about
normalcy to our nation. Once this has been arrived at, the church will
inform its constituency as well as the nation at large." The Catholic
bishops include six prelates who have sat on their chasubles these past four
years while death threats have been issued against their colleague,
Archbishop Pius Ncube of Bulawayo, for daring to say agitation for land
reform is a smokescreen for intimidation of opposition. The Anglican Bishop
of Harare, Nolbert Kunonga, declares his devotion to Mugabe and has
desecrated memorials to black and white soldiers killed in World War II.

The ZCC, in which none of these reverend clerics holds sway, appealed in its
own private statement for "forgiveness". "We have with our own eyes watched
as violence, rape, intimidation, harassment and various forms of torture
have ravaged the nation. We have been witness to and buried our own people
who have starved to death due to food shortages. While we have continued to
pray we have not been moved to action," said the ZCC statement. "We as a
council apologise to the people of Zimbabwe for not having done enough at a
time when the nation looked to us for guidance.'' It added that some of the
perpetrators of human rights abuses had been "set free" - but dodged saying
who they are. Meanwhile, the bakers' attempt to cloak their nakedness before
the inspectors by marketing bread as "Swedish Loaves", "Health Loaves" and
"Twist Loaves" in order to charge a realistic price. "What is being
"'twisted'? The dough or the customer?" I asked an assistant. We both had a
good laugh as I handed over my $700 (19 pence at the black market rate)
knowing I was extraordinarily fortunate to be one of the few with the money.

     Zimbabwe's economy has shrunk in recent years

      JOHANNESBURG, - Zimbabwe is experiencing a debilitating flight of
professional and skilled people escaping the country's economic crisis, a
study funded by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) has found.

      A large number of Zimbabweans had taken up South African citizenship
and there were probably more Zimbabweans in South Africa than in the United
Kingdom, the country with the highest official tally of expatriate
Zimbabweans.

      The study was undertaken by the Scientific and Industrial Research and
Development Centre (SIRDC), under contract from the National Economic and
Consultative Forum, to measure the rate and level of the 'brain drain'.

      It confirmed that the "level and trend of the brain drain in Zimbabwe
has reached unacceptable and unsustainable heights". Noting that "during the
last four years, this brain drain trend has escalated in magnitude to levels
that have serious implications for the country's capacity to deliver on the
sustainable development front".

      Zimbabwe dropped to 145th place out of 175 countries in the Human
Development Index (HDI) rankings in 2003. The HDI is a composite measure of
average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development: a long
and healthy life, education and a decent standard of living. [See IRIN
report: http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=35408]

      The SIRDC study estimated there were 479,348 skilled Zimbabweans "in
the diaspora, although the study team is aware that there is a large number
of diasporants that it could not contact". The majority held bachelors
degrees and "about 20 percent held masters degrees, while 5 percent held PhD
degrees," the report noted.

      Most Zimbabweans who had left the country since 1990 had gone to the
United Kingdom (36.8 percent), Botswana (34.5 percent) and South Africa.

      Although data collected from government departments, embassies and
other official sources showed that South Africa had the smallest proportion
(4.6 percent) of immigrant Zimbabweans, the authors of the report believe
this to be a "a gross underestimation of Zimbabweans in South Africa, the
preponderant majority of whom are illegal immigrants".

      "As the illegal immigrants have no defined places of abode, and are
constantly on the run from law enforcement agents, there was no way for us
to interview them so as to include them in our catchment," the SIRDC stated.

      During a visit to South Africa, the report's authors also found "the
majority of diaspora Zimbabweans there had changed their citizenship. We
could thus not find an appropriate manner of handling the case of the
diaspora Zimbabweans in South Africa. Many Zimbabweans readily mix in with
the South Africans because of the similarity of last names. Our view, not
backed by data from this study, is that there are probably more diaspora
Zimbabweans in South Africa than in the UK," the authors commented.

      REASONS FOR LEAVING

      More than half the respondents sampled in the study had emigrated for
work reasons (54.5 percent). "The most common work-related reasons for
emigrating given ... were the low salaries in Zimbabwe, followed by the
exchange rate, and better career advancement opportunities." In recent years
the Zimbabwe dollar has depreciated sharply against major currencies and
those of its neighbours.

      About 8 percent of respondents mentioned "political factors" as their
main reason for emigrating.

      "If the Zimbabwe government does not do something to make staying at
home more attractive and rewarding, the brain drain will continue unabated,"
the study warned. The forces driving people out of the country were as
powerful as the opportunities luring them away.

      There was no alternative but to enact "necessary economic reforms that
make staying at home attractive and rewarding" for skilled and educated
Zimbabweans.

      The shrinking economy was not only forcing productive Zimbabweans
abroad but had also resulted in what the authors of the report termed an
"internal brain drain".

      "The deteriorating economy in Zimbabwe has forced some professors,
lecturers, medical doctors and scientists to operate minibuses, taxicabs or
operate beer parlours. It is a form of internal brain drain to have many
architects, accountants and pharmacists underemployed," the study said.

      HEALTH PROFESSIONALS TOP EMIGRANTS

      The health and teaching professions were the worst affected by the
brain drain.

      "An examination of the professions of those who are leaving the
country shows that a sizeable proportion of them are doctors, teachers and
nurses. In fact, the health care sector is the most affected. Many are
leaving because health care and education spending cuts across the board
have denied them a place to stay and work in Zimbabwe."

      The report found that the flight of doctors had been "so overwhelming
that the Ministry of Health and Child Welfare has had to recruit hundreds of
Cuban doctors who are paid in foreign currency to fill the gap".

      "Many professionals leave Zimbabwe for the brighter opportunities
offered abroad, complaining that Zimbabwe is too corrupt, and needs more
politicians of high moral standards. The dilemma is that Zimbabwe will not
advance in development if the majority of qualified people continue to
leave.

      "The reason why certain professionals are leaving Zimbabwe is that
they think working at home is synonymous with supporting the current
government and not the people," the report observed.

      The majority of emigrant Zimbabweans interviewed said they intended
returning. But about a quarter were not sure whether they would ever live in
Zimbabwe again.

      Erecting legal barriers to the emigration of educated professionals
would only encourage illegal emigration and discourage "bright Zimbabweans
from seeking to better themselves through overseas education in the first
place".

      "If brain drain is a valid concern, the main thrust of public policy
in Zimbabwe should be driven by efforts to stem [the tide] and targeting our
policy thrust towards domestic equity, efficiency, and growth," the authors
of the report concluded.

A human rights group in Zimbabwe says opposition candidates are being
prevented from running in elections scheduled for next month.

In a statement Wednesday, the human rights group Lawyers for Human Rights
expressed its concern that MDC candidates are being pressured not to run for
office. In some cases, the group says, MDC politicians have been threatened
with violence and in others they have been physically assaulted.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change says at least two MDC members
who wanted to run for office have been attacked in recent days, with one
suffering a broken neck. It also accuses militia members linked to the
ruling ZANU-PF party gathering around registration areas to stop candidates
from presenting papers to the nomination court.

MDC officials say more than 40 of their candidates have not been able to
register.

The elections are to take place in small towns, where the MDC has
considerable support.

In its statement, Lawyers for Human Rights says it is both unfortunate and
sad that despite 23 years of independence, Zimbabweans could still not fully
enjoy the right to vote, or be voted into public office, without the risk of
violence.

The election authority has declared all seats where the MDC failed to
register candidates as won unopposed by ZANU-PF.

The MDC says it plans to challenge the exclusion of its candidates in the
court.

Meanwhile, African and western diplomats have responded positively to the
decision by MDC legislators to attend President Robert Mugabe's address to
the new session of parliament. The MDC had been boycotting Mr. Mugabe's
opening speeches as a protest against his victory in last year's
presidential election, which the MDC and many observers say was widely
flawed.

The diplomats, speaking on the condition they are not identified, say the
next step has to come from Mr. Mugabe's ZANU-PF.