Date: 25 Mar 2008
As Zimbabweans prepare to vote in national
elections on 29 March, Amnesty
International today warned that the right to
freedom of expression,
association and assembly are being unnecessarily
restricted in advance of
the poll date.
'Although opposition parties
appear to be enjoying a greater degree of
access to previously 'no go areas'
in rural areas compared with previous
elections, we continue to receive
reports of intimidation, harassment and
violence against perceived
supporters of opposition candidates - with many
in rural regions fearful
that there will be retribution after the
elections,' said Simeon Mawanza,
Amnesty International's Zimbabwe researcher
who recently returned from
Zimbabwe.
On 7 March, three members of the Morgan Tsvangirai-led faction
of the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) were putting up election posters
in
Bulawayo when they were ordered by members of the Central Intelligence
Organisation (CIO) to pull them down. The CIO operatives forced a male
member of the group to chew the posters and swallow them. A female member of
the group was then forced to chew and swallow three-quarters of a poster.
The three were allowed to go when the CIO operatives had to go to a
political rally.
'Police in some parts of the country are clearly
putting unnecessary
restrictions on the activities of the opposition party
members, while
allowing supporters of the ruling party total enjoyment of
their rights,'
said Mawanza.
On or around 10 March, in Plumtree, five
people operating a public address
system at a rally addressed by Dr. Simba
Makoni, an independent presidential
candidate, were briefly detained at
Plumtree police station. They were
released without charge after the
intervention of the candidate.
Amnesty International said that food is
still being used as a political tool
by ruling party functionaries in many
rural areas. Perceived supporters of
opposition candidates and political
parties continue to be discriminated
against, mostly in accessing the
cheaper maize sold by the state-controlled
Grain Marketing Board (GMB),
which manages the country's strategic grain
reserves.
Last month, an
MDC (Tsvangirai faction) councillor in Lupane district was
allegedly
prevented by a senior ruling party official and war veterans from
collecting
235 bags of maize that had been bought by his community from the
GMB. The
senior ruling party official reportedly told GMB officials that
'GMB maize
is not supposed to be distributed to MDC supporters.'
Although the Public
Order and Security Act (POSA) and Access to Information
and Protection of
Privacy Act (AIPPA) were amended in January 2008,
ostensibly to protect the
rights to freedom of assembly, association and
expression, restrictions
still exist. Police also appear to be applying
provisions of the old
POSA.
'Application of the POSA is motivated by a desire to frustrate the
activities of perceived political opponents,' said Mawanza. 'Civil society
organisations are operating under constant surveillance by state security
organisations -- including the police. Surveillance tactics include
intelligence operatives sitting in meetings and visiting offices to question
staff and guests of the organisations. This type of harassment and
intimidation has made the work of human rights organisations extremely
difficult at the moment.'
On 21 March eight members of the activist
organisation Women of Zimbabwe
Arise (WOZA) were briefly held by police in
Bulawayo's suburb of Pumula
while putting up posters encouraging people to
go and vote. The eight women
were taken to Pumula police station, where they
were questioned for about 30
minutes and then released without
charge.
Civil society organisations and opposition parties and candidates
also face
difficulties in accessing state-controlled radio and television
stations.
There are currently no privately-owned daily newspapers in
Zimbabwe, and no
private radio station has been granted a
license.
Amnesty International urged Zimbabwean police to respect the
rights to
freedom of association and peaceful assembly of all candidates and
civil
society organisations going about their legitimate work during and
after the
election period.
'The police should ensure that all
Zimbabweans are allowed to engage in
peaceful protest before and during the
elections, and must desist from using
excessive force, torture or other
inhuman and degrading treatment,' said
Mawanza.
'The police should
also investigate all reports of violence and intimidation
and bring the
perpetrators to justice.'
Amnesty International also called on the heads
of security organisations to
desist from making comments that can fuel
election violence.
Recent statements by some security chiefs including
the commissioner-general
of police, the head of the prison services and army
commander that they
would not recognise an opposition candidate winning the
election has
increased the population's anxiety.
'Security chiefs
should all operate in a non-partisan manner and protect the
rights of all
citizens,' said Mawanza. 'The conduct of the state security
organisations --
irrespective of the outcome of the election -- will be
crucial in
safeguarding the rights of all Zimbabweans in the post-election
period.'
Los Angeles Times
Robert Mugabe, poised to
steal another election, has led his nation to ruin.
By Peter Godwin
March
25, 2008
Once it was Africa's shining city on a hill, a beacon of
prosperity and
economic growth in the gloom of a continent shrouded by
poverty. Emerging in
1980 from a seven-year civil war against white settler
rule, the newly
independent nation of Zimbabwe embraced racial
reconciliation and invited
the country's whites (one in 20 of the
population) to remain and contribute
to the new nation.
I was one of
those who gladly dismissed Rhodesia and became Zimbabwean. Upon
the firm
economic infrastructure he had inherited, Robert Mugabe, our first
black
leader, built a health and educational system that was the envy of
Africa.
Zimbabwe became the continent's most literate country, with its
highest per
capita income. Zimbabwe easily fed itself and had plenty left
over to export
to its famine-prone neighbors.
I remember crisscrossing the continent
then as Africa correspondent for a
British newspaper, and each time I
returned to the newly renamed capital of
Harare (previously it had been
Salisbury), I was reminded that in comparison
to what surrounded it,
Zimbabwe was like Switzerland. The roads were well
maintained, the elevators
worked, electricity was constant, you could drink
the water, the steaks were
world-renowned. The Zimbabwe dollar was at near
parity with its American
namesake.
Fast forward to today, and the country is
unrecognizable.
Zimbabwe now has the fastest-shrinking peacetime economy
in the world. This
week, one U.S. dollar (even in its newly enfeebled state)
will fetch you 55
million Zimbabwe dollars on the street. Hyperinflation
there has soared well
above 100,000% -- way past what it was in the Weimar
Republic, when Germans
loaded up wheelbarrows with money to go grocery
shopping. Zimbabweans must
carry huge wads of cash around in shopping bags,
and by the time they reach
the checkout desk at the shortage-racked
supermarkets, the prices have
already gone up.
Commercial agriculture
-- the backbone of the economy -- lies shattered. All
but a few of the
country's 5,000 large-scale farmers, most of whom were
white, have been run
off their properties by government-backed squatters and
militia. From being
a food exporter, Zimbabwe would now starve without U.N.
famine relief. And
even with it, half the population is malnourished.
Education and healthcare
have collapsed. Ravaged by AIDS, life expectancy
has plummeted from around
60 years old to about 35, the world's lowest.
Zimbabwe has more orphans per
capita than almost any other country on the
planet. Water is undrinkable,
power infrequent, roads potholed, fuel scarce,
corruption endemic.
My
own parents, an engineer and a doctor and better off than most, still
lost
everything as I watched from my new home in New York, frequently
returning
to check on them and try to persuade them to leave. But they
insisted on
staying. By the time my father died in 2004, their pensions,
life insurance
and stocks were worthless.
Why? It comes down to one man: Robert Mugabe,
now in his 28th year in power
and still refusing to go. Like Sampson, he
would rather pull the temple down
around him, would rather destroy Zimbabwe
than leave office. The damage he
has wrought will take generations to
repair.
The country's free-fall into failed statehood began in earnest in
2000. That
was when the electorate tired of him and his increasingly
imperious
one-party rule and voted down his attempt to do away with term
limits so
that he could continue as president. Mugabe, the onetime guerrilla
leader
who now saw himself as liberator of the country, reacted with
astonishing
venom. He turned on the newly emboldened black opposition,
harassing,
imprisoning and torturing their supporters. And those white
commercial
farmers he'd invited to remain in 1980 he threw off the land,
distributing
their farms among his cronies, which helped precipitate the
economic
catastrophe because few of them had the inclination or technical
know-how to
farm.
Mugabe became an African Ahab, Melville's
"monomaniacal commander,"
marinating in a toxic brew of hate and denial as
he plunged his ship of
state down into the dark vortex, railing all the
while from the quarterdeck
against the great white whale. He blamed
Zimbabwe's plunge on the largely
symbolic sanctions imposed by the West. And
he refused to negotiate with his
own, overwhelmingly black, opposition,
dismissing them as lackeys of
Britain, the former colonial power.
Why
do Zimbabweans continue to put up with Mugabe? In large numbers, they
don't.
Since 2000, most have tried to vote against him in presidential
elections,
but these were blatantly rigged. Now, as many as 70% of those
between 18 and
60 have left the country to live and work elsewhere. It's an
exodus on a par
with the flood of Irish immigrants into America after the
potato famine. And
it's also the key to how the shattered Zimbabwe state
survives --
remittances from its diaspora. People like me sending hard
currency back to
family and friends. By doing so, we inadvertently assist
Mugabe to survive
too.
Now a sprightly 84 years old, Mugabe has recently moved into a
$26-million
palace, with 25 bedroom suites, furnished with Sun King
flourishes. He rules
as a dictator through a network of army
officers.
It is on them that he will rely once more to mastermind the
presidential
election Saturday. It is an election in name only, with no hope
of being
"free and fair." Mugabe has already rejected various constitutional
reforms
backed by South Africa. Electoral rolls are a joke, stuffed with
fictitious
voters. Police officers are to be allowed into voting booths "to
assist
illiterate voters." And votes are to be counted not at individual
polling
stations but at a single "national command center" staffed by senior
army
officers, which is where the rigging will likely take
place.
Mugabe has banned most independent observers, instead inviting
teams from
China, Russia, Iran and Angola -- nations with no modern history
of free and
fair democracy. And finally, the more than 4 million in the
Zimbabwe
diaspora are not allowed postal votes.
None of this bodes
well for Mugabe's two main opponents. Morgan Tsvangirai,
of the Movement for
Democratic Change, is a veteran of several rigged poll
defeats and seems
unlikely to fare any better this time, despite the
enthusiastic crowds he
draws to his rallies. Mugabe's other threat is Simba
Makoni, a member of
Mugabe's own politburo until he was expelled recently
for daring to compete
for the presidency.
The only real hope is that the men responsible for
carrying out the
rigging -- Mugabe's secret police, his senior government
apparatchiks and
the army leadership -- may have lost faith in their
longtime leader. Perhaps
they will refuse to fiddle the vote, especially
because Makoni, the former
Cabinet minister, is running as a "reformist"
candidate, presenting the
prospect of change with continuity.
It is a
very slim prospect.
Peter Godwin is the author of "When a Crocodile Eats
the Sun -- A Memoir of
Africa," which describes the collapse of Zimbabwe and
the disintegration of
his family there.
VOA
By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C.
26
March 2008
Zimbabwe's main opposition Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) has
condemned what it describes as intimidating tactics arrests
of two of its
officials and a pilot ahead of this Saturdays' general
elections. This comes
after police arrested an MDC parliamentary candidate
and a partisan who were
at the airport to receive the party's campaign
material.
The MDC is also accusing the police of being in cahoots with
incumbent
President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF government to intimidate the
opposition to
prevent its victory in the elections.
Officials of the
police and the government refused to comment on the
arrests. University of
Zimbabwe political science lecturer, Professor John
Makumbe tells reporter
Peter Clottey that it will be difficult for the
opposition to win Saturday's
elections.
"Mugabe government is also intimidating members of the
opposition, members
of civil society, members of the church, and so forth.
And this is a very
clear intimidating tactic being used to discourage
members of the opposition
from campaigning effectively, using materials that
I suspect were actually
printed outside the country, and were flown in for
use in the remaining few
days," Makumbe noted.
He suggests Saturday's
general elections will not be credible.
"It is impossible. I mean that
arrest of the opposition leaders is really
just a tip of the iceberg because
there are lots of other problems with the
whole electoral process. Including
allegations that something like 18
million ballot papers may have been
printed by the regime (Mugabe's
government), including 600-thousand postal
votes that may have been printed.
Yet we know that people who qualify for
postal votes do not even amount to a
hundred thousand. And so where are all
these other ballots papers going to?
There are two many problems with the
electoral process so that the elections
credibility is highly questionable
now," he said.
Makumbe said it would be overly difficult for the
opposition to prevent what
he describes as rigging machinery of the
incumbent government.
"They (opposition) will have to be vigilant, but I
think there is very
little they can do to thwart the rigging machinery and
the tactic, which
would be used by the Mugabe regime. What is very likely to
happen is that
even though they will find out how the election has been
stolen, they will
really struggle to get that passed by the court as
legitimate grounds for
nullifying certain results. And the courts will
usually take their time, the
courts can take up to five or six years by,
which time Mugabe, would have
finished his term of office. So there is very
little that the opposition
political parties can do,"Makumbe
said.
kansascity.com
Tue, Mar. 25, 2008
The government of Zimbabwe appears determined to stifle the
people's
democratic rights to elect a president of their choice in
Saturday's general
elections.
All indications are that the authorities in
this economically devastated
country in southern Africa are set to
perpetuate the iron rule of the
octogenarian fascist Robert Mugabe.
Opposition leaders have threatened to
reject the outcome and adopt the
"Kenyan style" of resisting rigged
elections.
Relative calm has been
restored in Kenya following two months of ethnic
violence after the December
presidential elections. The international
community should take whatever
steps are necessary to prevent similar
bloodshed in
Zimbabwe.
Recently, the leader of the country's military issued a
chilling threat that
his armed forces will not allow any opposition leader
to ascend to power
because, according to him, they are puppets of foreign
masters. The same
warning was repeated by the country's top police commander
last week.
Mugabe, an independence hero, has ruled Zimbabwe since its
freedom from
Britain almost three decades ago. During his rule, the
country's vibrant
agricultural economy has collapsed, food shortages are
common in rural
areas, and the nation's infrastructure is in shambles.
Inflation is the
worst in the world at more than 100,000
percent.
Life expectancy among Zimbabweans is the lowest on the planet.
And HIV/AIDS
threatens to wipe out the productive generation. Yet Mugabe,
84, still
believes he has a lot to offer.
Mugabe's regime already has
obliterated the recent comprehensive peace
agreement presided over by South
African President Thabo Mbeki. The
agreement, among other issues, spelled
out rules of conduct in the
forthcoming general elections. It called for the
creation of an independent
Electoral Commission, keeping police out of
politics and respect for
multiparty democracy in Zimbabwe.
But Mugabe
has repudiated this deal and decreed that police officers assist
the elderly
and those physically challenged to cast their ballots.
The opposition in
Zimbabwe alleges that they have discovered tens of
thousands of fictitious
voters in election registers. Some contain names of
people who died 30 years
ago. Authorities have refused to make the registers
public.
In his
desperate quest to cling to power, Mugabe has continued to attempt to
manipulate Zimbabweans. He tells them that he is fighting the return of
British imperialism that will bring back the dark ages of colonialism. Yet,
his government has perfected a brutal regime worse than the British
colony.
The African Union or United Nations needs to intervene now.
Mugabe should be
compelled to facilitate free and fair elections, respect
multiparty
democracy in his country, restore the rule of law and allow
fundamental
liberties and freedoms to flourish.
The United Nations
and the African Union should not stand aside as Mugabe
systematically drives
Zimbabwe to the grave. His latest scheme to misuse the
police and the armed
forces to stymie the democratic process is an affront
to acceptable
international standards.
Peter Makori is an exiled Kenyan journalist.
He can be e-mailed at
peterma20@yahoo.com.
Mail and Guardian
Florence Panoussian | Johannesburg, South Africa
26
March 2008 07:09
South Africa has steadfastly refused to join
in the chorus of
criticism of Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe despite
paying an ever
higher price for the crisis across its northern
border.
As Zimbabwe goes to the polls this weekend, analysts
believe
South African President Thabo Mbeki may feel little enthusiasm
towards
Mugabe but will never embarrass his fellow leader nor want him
replaced by
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC).
According to Olmo Von Meijenfeldt of the Institute for
Democracy
in South Africa in Pretoria, Mbeki's desire to carve out a niche
as an
advocate for the whole of Africa means he will never denigrate
Mugabe.
"The most important for Thabo Mbeki and the South
African
government has been and is the African agenda and the African Union
network," he said.
"The people of Zimbabwe have been
sacrificed for the larger good
of the African agenda."
With inflation running at over 100 000% and unemployment at more
than 80%,
up to a third of Zimbabwe's 12-million population has fled to
greener
pastures -- mostly to South Africa.
Mbeki has acknowledged
the economic meltdown has damaged the
region as a whole but he has still
refused to publicly criticise Mugabe,
maintaining instead a policy of "quiet
diplomacy".
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has said Mbeki needs
to show "a
little courage" in dealing with the Zimbabwean president and
called the
South African leader's attempts to mediate between the Zimbabwean
ruling
party and opposition a flop.
Chris Maroleng, a
Zimbabwe specialist at the Pretoria-based
Institute for Security Studies,
said South Africa is sceptical that speaking
out about either the economic
crisis or Mugabe's crackdowns on opponents
would help.
South Africa "has argued that public criticism of President
Mugabe has not
created any real change, but in fact encouraged him to become
more
intransigent," said Maroleng.
Mugabe, who has ruled the
ex-British colony since 1980, has been
ostracised by the West after
allegedly rigging his 2002 re-election and for
assaults by his security
service on opposition leaders such as Tsvangirai.
Through
much of Africa, however, Mugabe is still revered for his
role in bringing an
end to the former whites-only regime of Ian Smith as
head of the Zanu
(Zimbabwe African National Union) guerrilla movement.
Zanu
(later renamed Zanu-Patriotic Front after a merger) has
come to regard
itself as the natural party of government in much the same
way as the
African National Congress (ANC) in Pretoria.
Moeletsi Mbeki
of the South African Institute for International
Affairs in Johannesburg
says the common backgrounds explain why South Africa
has little appetite for
a change at State House in Harare.
"Southern Africa is ruled
by nationalist parties created by the
black elite who was fighting
colonialism," said Mbeki, the South African
leader's
brother.
"The MDC is a new-age party created from the bottom,
so you are
having a clash of civilisations between the nationalist parties
created by
the black elite, which tells the people what to do, and the MDC
new-style
party created by the people which wants the elite to be
accountable."
Tsvangirai played no part in the war of
liberation, instead
making a name for himself as a union leader in the 1990s
by leading mass
protests.
Mbeki said none of the regimes
which make up the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) felt
comfortable with such shows of
people power.
"The SADC
governments are not very interested in MDC winning the
election because they
see MDC-style parties as a threat to them."
As well as a
challenge from Tsvangirai, Mugabe is also being
taken on by his former
finance minister Simba Makoni, who broke ranks with
Zanu-PF last
month.
Von Meijenfeldt said Makoni might be more acceptable
to Pretoria
but gave him little chance of victory.
"He is
an acceptable candidate for South Africa, for the West,
[but] it's not very
likely Makoni will win. He came into the race very
late." - AFP
ABC Australia
Foreign
Affairs Minister Stephen Smith says he hopes there will be a change
of
President in Zimbabwe but he doesn't expect a free election when the
country
goes to the polls this weekend.
Mr Smith says the world will be better a
place once President Robert
Mugabe's rule of the troubled African nation
comes to an end.
"Zimbabwe remains of very, very serious concern to
Australia, to other
Commonwealth nations and to the international community
generally," he said.
"The sooner we see the back of the terrible Mugabe
regime the better."
Zimbabwe's main Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
has told the ABC that he
expects Mr Mugabe will try to rig the vote.
Monsters and Critics
Mar 26, 2008, 7:02 GMT
Harare - Zimbabwe's justice
minister has dismissed as 'utter rubbish' claims
by the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) that the political playing field
is uneven ahead of
national polls.
Zimbabweans are preparing to elect a new president,
parliament and local
councillors on March 29, but the MDC has expressed
fears of vote rigging.
'They (MDC) are preparing the ground to explain
their defeat,' Patrick
Chinamasa charged during a lengthy interview on state
television late
Tuesday.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai last week
accused the Zimbabwe government of
printing 9 million ballot papers for only
5.9 million registered voters.
The veteran opposition leader, who is
challenging President Robert Mugabe
for the second time since disputed polls
in 2002, also accused the veteran
leader of abuse of power.
He said
Mugabe's decision to amend electoral laws to allow police into
polling
stations - ostensibly to assist illiterate or disabled people to
vote -
could be a ploy to intimidate voters.
'He (Tsvangirai) is participating
under the clear understanding that the
political playing field is level,'
Chinamasa insisted. Chinamasa dismissed
claims by the MDC and human rights
groups that the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission is biased in favour of Mugabe
and his ruling ZANU-PF party.
He said the commission was the product of
dialogue between the two parties.
'They've got members who are there (on
the commission) who are MDC members,'
said Chinamasa, accusing the MDC of
'nit-picking.'
The minister also dismissed dire forecasts that political
tensions in
Zimbabwe between ZANU-PF and the MDC could erupt into violence
similar to
that which followed Kenya's disputed elections. He said an
uprising in
Zimbabwe was a 'pipedream' of media hostile to the Harare
government.
'The majority (in the country) cannot revolt against itself.
There will be
no violence,' Chinamasa said. 'MDC will be wiped out
politically.'
A recent opinion poll gave Tsvangirai an 8 per cent lead
over Mugabe with
28.3 percent of votes. Mugabe garnered 20.3 per cent and
independent
presidential candidate Simba Makoni took just 8.6 per
cent.
zimbabwejournalists.com
26th Mar 2008 00:29 GMT
By Simba
Muyevedzwa
Chisingaperi chinoshura musoro wegudo chava chinokoro is a
Shona saying,
which when literally translated means that everything comes to
an end or
everything that flies has to land at some stage or the other. My
dearest
Zimbabweans, this is what I have been noticing in the past few days
as we go
through this last stretch towards crucial elections in our
country.
I was born in Uzumba-Maramba-Pfungwe, President Robert Mugabe's
stronghold
in Mashonaland East Pronvince. As I write this, I have just come
back from
home where I had gone to after a long, long time due to the high
costs of
travelling. This time I had no choice, I had to go and give my
people food,
rather than sending bus drivers to drop parcels off. I thought
anything
could happen after the election results are announced so let me go
and see
my mother and siblings.
My sister, my brother the
humanitarian crisis in my home area is beyond
comprehension. No words can
best describe the debilitating effects of food
shortages and the
hopelessness that have hit rural Zimbabwe and this week
things have gone
from bad to worse. The few days I spent at home were
painful. Because I came
from Harare neighbours start trickling in as soon as
they see smoke
billowing through my mother's thatched roof because they
think she is
preparing some tea - her son has just come from Harare so he
has brought tea
leaves, sugar and bread.
Our dignity has been taken away as Zimbabweans
by this crisis in our
country. The reason I started with the Shona saying is
because the things I
noticed while I was on my way home a week ago and back
on Sunday are history
in the making.
First on the bus as I went home,
I discovered the people of Zimbabwe
vatindivara - they no longer care who
Robert Mugabe is. They are no longer
scared. They were saying what they want
about the "old man" and the need for
him to retire as soon as possible and
the need for people to know where to
put their X come March 29. Yes there
have been stories of one or two people
being arrested for attacking the
person of the president but let me tell
you, the CIO are also fed up. We
live with their mothers, their sisters etc
and they are all crying. Only
those who meet the dyed-in-wool operatives
will get apprehended and the
majority will not be touched.
What shocked me most is the fact that
Mugabe has been on a campaign
nationwide buying votes using the state
machinery to boost his campaign but
in my home area and in Murehwa in
particular, I was astonished to learn that
the ploughs and scotch carts that
Mugabe and Zanu PF have been donating lie
idle because the people in his
supposed stronghold have abandoned him. They
no longer want anything to do
with him because they are suffering, they
crave for change.
Food
shortages in villages have become so acute that it is difficult to do
anything. Everything has changed, things are no longer the same - the
funeral wakes, the weddings, the parties - everything is so sad because of
the economic crisis. People no longer go to church service in their numbers
because of the crisis - lack of food, sanitary products for women and many
other essentials.
In neighbouring farms taken by the government (for
the record I support the
taking of land from the white commercial farmers
because they really never
wanted to let go but remain owning vast tracts of
land stolen from our
forefathers) I see for myself that indeed new black
farmers resettled on
formerly white-owned land are among those in dire need
of food aid. All this
because of poor planning by the Zanu PF government,
which did not support
the black farmers with the implements and finance as
were the white farmers
back then.
My dear brethren, what I'm saying
is that if the people of Uzumba are
changing then why can't we all change
and vote for Morgan Tsvangirai or
Simba Makoni.
I discovered that in
my area, people prefer to vote Tsvangirai because they
still fear that
Makoni may be part of the state machinery to divide the
opposition vote. If
it is not true then his campaign has left it until too
late to dispel the
rumour. I think he would have made a great president but
then most people
are sceptical of his links with Zanu PF.
When I eventually return to my
base in Harare, what do I find - a pleasant
surprise that what is happening
in Uzumba has also started to happen in
Harare. What with Morgan
Tsvangirai's rally at the showgrounds being
attended by thousands and with
our mothers, sisters and brothers wearing in
the open MDC party regalia like
caps, mazambia, t-shirts and even Simba
Makoni's as well. The only party
regalia missing from the streets of Harare
is that of Robert Mugabe and Zanu
PF. For fear of being lynched by the
hungry and angry mobs, the few Zanu PF
faithful prefer to keep theirs under
the pillow and wear when they are
bussed to Mugabe's rallies. For the
record, I have noticed this year almost
everyone - MDC, Zanu PF, Makoni - is
bussing supporters to rallies but the
point is, Mugabe's zambias, caps,
t-shirts are nowhere to be seen, meaning
Tsvangirai is going to sweep clean
and win overwhelmingly. Anything less
would cause mayhem on the streets of
Harare.
The lingo is all "vote
chematama" as Morgan is affectionately known - the
president in waiting,
that's what his people are saying. I just thought I
should share this with
you. The fear is going away. I sense with all that is
happening, the people
of Zimbabwe are ready to stand and defend their vote.
I am not an MDC
supporter but I'm tired of Mugabe. I would have preferred
Makoni but I have
to be realistic, his chances are slim and will obviously
for me, come out a
distant third in the presidential race to state house.
Things are
certainly changing in Uzumba, in Harare - that is what i have
seen - but it
may well be that things are also changing in the whole of
Zimbabwe. We are
living in dire times but also exciting times. In the combi
yesterday i could
not believe the freedom of speech being enjoyed by
Zimbabweans. People
poking fun at Mugabe, his team and all openly for that
matter. Vanhu vaneta,
people are tired and hungry. They need salvation and I
have no doubt on
Saturday they will turn out in huge numbers to cast their
ballots.
We
all wait to see the outcome of the elections but one thing is for sure,
if
Mugabe comes back he must know that Zimbabweans are getting hardened.
With
the visible opposition support that I am seeing on the streets of the
townships in Harare, things are certainly changing and history is being made
for sure. We have not seen anything like this in Zimbabwe before. It has
always been Zanu PF, Zanu PF, something is happening and Mugabe must be
quacking in his boots.
Simba Muyevedzwa is an ordinary Zimbabwean who
writes here about what he has
observed in his home area ahead of the March
29 polls.
The Independent, UK
Wednesday, 26 March 2008
Unless African ruling elites
overcome their obsession that regular
elections - where the winner takes all
- is the main measure of democracy,
the orgy of violence such as that over
disputed elections in Kenya will be
repeated elsewhere on the
continent.
Western donors, with their requirements that elections are
enough to warrant
aid, have helped along this limited view of democracy.
Zimbabwe is staging
its long-awaited presidential election this weekend,
with Robert Mugabe's
ruling Zanu-PF so blatantly rigging the elections that
the outcome risks the
same terrible violence.
Because of this narrow
view of democracy, very few African governments put
much effort into
building relevant democratic institutions. The separation
of powers, such as
an independent judiciary and a system of checks and
balances between
branches of government, exists largely on paper.
Furthermore, the idea that
there are limits to power, which need to be
enforced, is mostly a foreign
concept.
In Kenya, for example, President Mwai Kibaki appoints electoral
commission
officers and the judges that hear electoral petitions - mostly
ones aligned
to him. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe is directly manipulating the
commission
overseeing the country's coming elections.
Most African
countries have adopted winner-takes-all electoral systems, ones
ill-suited
for such ethnically diverse societies. Winners of African
elections often
gain access to state power and to pork-barrel land, business
and jobs for
ethnic supporters. Losers are almost never accommodated. In
fact, they are
brutalised into submission, with opposition figures all too
frequently
jailed on trumped-up charges. Many African independence and
liberation
movements, now ruling governments, saw their movements as the
embodiment of
the nation or "the people", with the leader or founder the
tribune of the
"people". In this scheme of things, opposition parties are
seen as the
enemy, to be annihilated at all costs.
Some African leaders think they
and their movements have the divine right to
rule forever, because they
"delivered" liberation - notwithstanding their
poor records in power. Jacob
Zuma, the controversial new leader of South
Africa's ruling African National
Congress, has said that the ANC will "rule
until Kingdom come". Robert
Mugabe, Zimbabwe's leader since independence in
1980, has vowed that the
country's main opposition party will never rule
during his
lifetime.
Africa's high stake winner-takes-all electoral systems, and the
damaging
consequences for the losing party, often combined with ethnically
based
competition, make for a deadly and toxic cocktail. Unless Kenya and
other
African countries adopt permanent power-sharing arrangements that give
electoral losers a stake in the political system, punish parties campaigning
on ethnic lines and reward pluralistic ones, the orgies of electoral
violence seen in Kenya will be endlessly repeated.
Most African
countries are a hotchpotch of ethnic groups, ethnicities and
languages.
Diverse ethnic groups make building democracy more difficult, but
not
impossible. Yet most African political parties are dominated by the same
ethnic group, and campaign on blood and clan grounds rather than policies or
issues.
Very few African leaders turn their countries' diversity into
strength.
Instead, while preaching pan-Africanism and blaming the West for
colonialism
and imperialism, they have been quick to play the tribal card.
Most African
opposition parties also organise along tribal lines. They often
appear to
exist solely to oppose the sitting president or government, rather
than
providing an alternative vision of government with clear policies to
match.
In Zimbabwe, with the ruling strongman Robert Mugabe for the first
time
looking vulnerable ahead of the 29 March poll, the main opposition
Movement
for Democratic Change is split into two, mostly because of the
brittle egos
of its two leading figures, the old stalwart Morgan Tsvangirai
and the Young
Turk, Arthur Mutambara. The result: a weakened Mugabe may just
scrape
through because of a divided opposition.
In Kenya, a deal has
now been stitched together to douse the ethnic flames
which saw more than
1,500 killed and close to a million displaced. President
Mwai Kibaki's
ruling Party of National Unity (PNU) and that of opposition
leader Raila
Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement, will share power, with Mr
Kibaki as
president and Mr Odinga as prime minister. African countries will
do well to
learn from this deal.
William Gumede's latest book, 'The Democracy Gap -
Africa's Wasted Years',
will be published later this year
The Independent, UK
Wednesday, 26 March 2008
Unless African ruling elites
overcome their obsession that regular
elections - where the winner takes all
- is the main measure of democracy,
the orgy of violence such as that over
disputed elections in Kenya will be
repeated elsewhere on the
continent.
Western donors, with their requirements that elections are
enough to warrant
aid, have helped along this limited view of democracy.
Zimbabwe is staging
its long-awaited presidential election this weekend,
with Robert Mugabe's
ruling Zanu-PF so blatantly rigging the elections that
the outcome risks the
same terrible violence.
Because of this narrow
view of democracy, very few African governments put
much effort into
building relevant democratic institutions. The separation
of powers, such as
an independent judiciary and a system of checks and
balances between
branches of government, exists largely on paper.
Furthermore, the idea that
there are limits to power, which need to be
enforced, is mostly a foreign
concept.
In Kenya, for example, President Mwai Kibaki appoints electoral
commission
officers and the judges that hear electoral petitions - mostly
ones aligned
to him. In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe is directly manipulating the
commission
overseeing the country's coming elections.
Most African
countries have adopted winner-takes-all electoral systems, ones
ill-suited
for such ethnically diverse societies. Winners of African
elections often
gain access to state power and to pork-barrel land, business
and jobs for
ethnic supporters. Losers are almost never accommodated. In
fact, they are
brutalised into submission, with opposition figures all too
frequently
jailed on trumped-up charges. Many African independence and
liberation
movements, now ruling governments, saw their movements as the
embodiment of
the nation or "the people", with the leader or founder the
tribune of the
"people". In this scheme of things, opposition parties are
seen as the
enemy, to be annihilated at all costs.
Some African leaders think they
and their movements have the divine right to
rule forever, because they
"delivered" liberation - notwithstanding their
poor records in power. Jacob
Zuma, the controversial new leader of South
Africa's ruling African National
Congress, has said that the ANC will "rule
until Kingdom come". Robert
Mugabe, Zimbabwe's leader since independence in
1980, has vowed that the
country's main opposition party will never rule
during his
lifetime.
Africa's high stake winner-takes-all electoral systems, and the
damaging
consequences for the losing party, often combined with ethnically
based
competition, make for a deadly and toxic cocktail. Unless Kenya and
other
African countries adopt permanent power-sharing arrangements that give
electoral losers a stake in the political system, punish parties campaigning
on ethnic lines and reward pluralistic ones, the orgies of electoral
violence seen in Kenya will be endlessly repeated.
Most African
countries are a hotchpotch of ethnic groups, ethnicities and
languages.
Diverse ethnic groups make building democracy more difficult, but
not
impossible. Yet most African political parties are dominated by the same
ethnic group, and campaign on blood and clan grounds rather than policies or
issues.
Very few African leaders turn their countries' diversity into
strength.
Instead, while preaching pan-Africanism and blaming the West for
colonialism
and imperialism, they have been quick to play the tribal card.
Most African
opposition parties also organise along tribal lines. They often
appear to
exist solely to oppose the sitting president or government, rather
than
providing an alternative vision of government with clear policies to
match.
In Zimbabwe, with the ruling strongman Robert Mugabe for the first
time
looking vulnerable ahead of the 29 March poll, the main opposition
Movement
for Democratic Change is split into two, mostly because of the
brittle egos
of its two leading figures, the old stalwart Morgan Tsvangirai
and the Young
Turk, Arthur Mutambara. The result: a weakened Mugabe may just
scrape
through because of a divided opposition.
In Kenya, a deal has
now been stitched together to douse the ethnic flames
which saw more than
1,500 killed and close to a million displaced. President
Mwai Kibaki's
ruling Party of National Unity (PNU) and that of opposition
leader Raila
Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement, will share power, with Mr
Kibaki as
president and Mr Odinga as prime minister. African countries will
do well to
learn from this deal.
William Gumede's latest book, 'The Democracy Gap -
Africa's Wasted Years',
will be published later this year
africasia.com
WATERPOORT, South Africa, March 26 (AFP)
A group of pickup trucks tears off
into the coal black Limpopo night --
their flashing green lights warning
criminals and Zimbabwean immigrants that
the farm patrol is on
duty.
The South African farmers' voices crackle over the CB radio as they
tip each
other off about suspicious sightings on their property.
The
trespassers are usually desperate Zimbabweans whose search for greener
pastures in South Africa is swiftly halted by the Green Light Patrol, which
takes any illegal immigrants they pick up to the police who then deport
them.
Desperate to escape grinding poverty and hunger, they are
flooding across
South Africa's porous border, damaging the delicate
symbiosis between these
farmers and Zimbabweans.
For years
Zimbabweans were the only labour available to the farmers, since
black South
Africans were confined to the former Venda homeland on the other
side of the
Soutpansberg mountains under the apartheid racial segregation
system.
Here in the northernmost part of South Africa there is little
but farmland
and harsh bushveld stretching hundreds of kilometres south of
the muddy
Limpopo river that thousands of Zimbabweans risk their lives to
cross.
Desperate to reach Johannesburg 540 kilometers (335 miles) further
south,
the border jumpers venture into this unforgiving landscape of
olive-green
scrub and baobab trees; dirty, exhausted, hungry and
parched.
Driven to steal clothes, blankets and food -- breaking through
farm fences,
cutting waterpipes to get water -- the sheer numbers of illegal
immigrants
have exasperated farmers.
Local farmer Stephen Hoffman
said farmers have felt increasingly vulnerable
since the disbanding of the
commandos -- rural policing forums that used to
assist police -- and the
authorities did nothing to stop the cross-border
flow.
"You have to
protect your property if the government is failing to do so,"
he
said.
Immigrants are also highly vulnerable, often falling prey to
exploitation by
farmers after managing to dodge the army and border
police.
For many Zimbabweans, South Africa -- the continent's economic
powerhouse --
is the land of plenty their own country was before
hyperinflation and mass
unemployment took hold at the start of the
decade.
"The life there is so difficult to enjoy, I am happy to work
here," says
Alex Gondo, who works at an organic vegetable farm outside Lousi
Trichardt.
He made the treacherous crossing across the Limpopo river
after his former
boss lost his farm during Zimbabwe's land reform
programme.
"They have money, but there is nothing to buy there," he says
of his country
where supermarket shelves are often bare.
Some farmers
take advantage of the immigrants who arrive at their gates
begging for work,
paying abysmal salaries, and reporting them to police if
they
complain.
At a farm in Waterpoort, some 90 kilometers south of the
border, Tereerai
Molambo explains how her employer tried to get her deported
after she broke
her leg.
Standing in a tiny room on the compound of a
neighbouring farm where friends
took her in -- paying her to look after
their children while they work --
Molambo says she was packing potatoes
when she fell.
"The wheel of the tractor drove over my leg and one thigh
was broken. I was
taken to the hospital. My boss just left me -- he didn't
give me any help,"
she tells AFP.
Instead, he called the police to
report her as an illegal immigrant.
A group of farmworkers canvassed on
the farm where Molambo sought refuge,
while happy with their own working
conditions, tell stories of abuse of
workers being beaten and paid as little
as two rand an hour.
According to South Africa's minimum wage laws, farm
labourers should earn
five rand and seven cents an hour or 1,090 rand (133
US dollars, 87 euros) a
month.
Recently South Africa's labour
department has stepped up pressure on farmers
to comply with regulations
allowing them to get permits for their workers,
holding raids to check up on
working conditions.
No one knows exactly how many Zimbabweans are in
South Africa, with
estimates ranging up to four million. Some 22,000 are
deported a month, only
to return.
Published Date: 26 March 2008
Source: The Scotsman
Location:
Scotland
By SARAH MANNELL
NEW to the blogging world and trying
to fit it in my first entry between
checking the Z$20,196,000,000 in
consular fees we have taken today and
persuading a local hotel to increase
the £67,000 discount given to some
visiting UK officials on their £68,000
hotel bill.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has an artificially high rate of
exchange and
hotels have to charge foreigners at this rate making even a
round of beers
over £1,000.
Zimbabwe's problems are well documented
but for many the reality of living
in a hyper inflationary environment in a
failing state is beyond
imagination - you have to make sure you've been to
the toilet before you
leave for work in case there is no water at the office
but if you do get
caught short it's better vfm to use a bank note rather
than newspaper for
toilet roll - just don't tell anyone you're doing it as
you may be accused
of defacing a note.
The difficulty in getting cash
here means it can be difficult for people to
get sufficient Zim dollars so
we have had to find imaginative ways of
helping people to meet our fees
(which are set by Parliament).
blogs.fco.gov.uk
SABC
March 26, 2008,
06:00
Service delivery has collapsed in most of Zimbabwe's local councils
as the
country struggles to cope with the highest inflation in the world and
an
unprecedented economic crisis. Against this dire backdrop, voters will go
to
the polls in this weekend's presidential elections.
Residents from
Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second largest city, have had to deal
with chronic
power and water cuts. Fuel and cash shortages are also
hampering the work of
council workers.
Refuse removal now takes place only once a month, water
cannot be purified,
sewage problems are not being attended to and local
clinics are not being
restocked with medicine supplies.
This dire
situation is being experienced throughout Zimbabwe.
Reuters
Wed 26 Mar 2008,
6:31 GMT
By MacDonald Dzirutwe
HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's
government has told businesses it will not try
to impose pre-election price
cuts in the inflation-ravaged country despite
President Robert Mugabe's
campaign threats to do so, business leaders said
on Tuesday.
Mugabe,
facing his toughest election battle since coming to power in 1980
because of
economic crisis and ruling party defections, had told a campaign
rally on
Monday he would push for cuts in prices, the state-run Herald
said.
But a government team met business leaders on Tuesday and while
raising
concerns over soaring prices, said there would be no forced cuts,
Zimbabwe's
main business group said.
"We have been fully re-assured
that there is no price blitz coming,"
Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries
president Callisto Jokonya told a
briefing when asked about Mugabe's
comments. "The situation as it is at the
moment is about
elections."
Prices of milk, bread and other key goods have been rising
weekly,
especially since a June 2007 government edict to cut prices led to
panic
buying, prompted storeowners to stop stocking shelves and worsened a
food
crisis in what was once one of Africa's top agricultural
producers.
Some companies have not recovered from the price crackdown,
which was
intended to arrest soaring inflation -- currently above 100,000
percent and
the highest rate in the world.
The Herald said Mugabe
wanted prices reversed to February 12 levels when
teachers and state workers
were awarded pay rises. The business leaders told
the government they would
keep prices at March 18 levels.
Mugabe says price increases are part of a
plot to force voters to turn
against his ruling ZANU-PF in the March 29
presidential, parliamentary and
municipal elections.
U.S. VOICES
CONCERN
His critics say the former liberation war hero has mismanaged
Zimbabwe's
economy and is bereft of solutions to end the crisis in a country
whose
economy was once one of the strongest in Africa.
"We want them
(businesses) to reduce prices to those which were in effect
before the
salary hikes," Mugabe told a campaign rally on Monday in Hwange,
a town in
northwestern Zimbabwe.
"We are going to read the riot act to them,"
Mugabe said.
Analysts said such a move would only further fuel
inflation.
"Rolling back prices will see a massive rise in inflation,"
Tony Hawkins,
professor of business studies at the University of Zimbabwe,
said.
"Government domestic debt has risen 65 times in a couple of weeks,
which is
what is driving prices."
Opponents accuse ZANU-PF of trying
to buy the election.
Equipment has been handed out to poor black farmers
and public buses have
been christened at pro-Mugabe rallies. The government
is expected this week
to give 400 new vehicles to doctors who have been
striking to protest work
conditions.
In Washington, the U.S. State
Department voiced concern about reports of
violence toward Zimbabwe's
opposition parties, inaccurate voter rolls, bias
by government-controlled
media and politicized distribution of
government-controlled food.
"We
are concerned that actions of the Zimbabwean government will preclude
free
and fair elections," U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack
said in
a written statement. "We call on the government ... to take concrete
actions
to address these significant shortcomings."
Asked what were the chances
of Zimbabwe having a free and fair election,
McCormack told reporters: "The
situation doesn't look promising."
The 84-year-old Mugabe is being
challenged by former ruling party finance
minister Simba Makoni, running as
an independent, and rival Morgan
Tsvangirai, leader of the main faction of
the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC).
All candidates
are promising to end the severe economic crisis, marked by
high unemployment
and chronic shortages.
Zimbabwe's agricultural sector, once the
cornerstone of its economy, has
been decimated since 2000 when Mugabe's
government began seizing thousands
of white-owned commercial farms and
redistributing them to poor blacks.
The MDC accuses Mugabe of planning to
fix the election.
Institute for War & Peace Reporting
In a country with a tradition of political violence, the sight of
opposition
supporters openly proclaiming their allegiance is a significant
sign of
change.
By Yamikani Mwando in Bulawayo (AR No. 162,
25-Mar-08)
While human rights groups report a rise in
politically-motivated violence in
the run-up to the March 29 elections in
Zimbabwe, recent displays of
defiance in Bulawayo - the hotbed of political
opposition - have met with a
surprisingly muted response.
In past
elections, it was considered foolhardy for anyone in an urban area
to be
seen wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with the face of an opposition
candidate.
And according to local and international human rights watchdogs,
it was
worse in rural areas, where traditional leaders working for ZANU PF
would
monitor the political affiliation of villagers and decide how whole
communities should vote.
The Zimbabwe Peace Project, a local human
rights group, reported in January
that there was an upsurge in
politically-motivated violence across the
country, and identified ZANU-PF
supporters as the major culprits. Earlier in
March, the New York-based
watchdog Human Rights Watch issued a report saying
abuses were on the
increase, as opposition supporters bore the brunt of
violence meted out by
ZANU-PF members.
But in Bulawayo, the country's second city and a
stronghold of the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, things
appear to have
changed. In advance of the elections, many young people are
calmly walking
around in pro-opposition t-shirts and plastering MDC posters
on the walls,
with no apparent fear of reprisals.
In the 2000
election, when support for the newly-emerged MDC was high,
images of
Tsvangirai and the party's"open palm" symbol printed on t-shirts
were enough
to invite the wrath of ZANU-PF activists. Human rights groups
reported that
people wearing opposition party regalia were among those most
victimised in
election violence.
However, urban areas where support for the opposition
is strong are now full
of young people openly identifying themselves with
the anti-Mugabe forces,
with apparent impunity.
In his nationwide
rallies, Tsvangirai has acknowledged that the young are
those hardest hit by
problems such as high unemployment and rampant
inflation, and has told them
that this election is their struggle.
Young people previously seen as
apathetic seem to have taken up the call,
prompted into political activism
by the increasing economic hardships they
face.
"I don't know why,
but this time we have not been harassed," said Terence
Bafana, a young
unemployed man wearing a Tsvangirai t-shirt.
Pasting an MDC campaign
poster next to a ZANU-PF one bearing the face of
President Mugabe, he said,
"I would not have done this in the past, but
there seems to be some change
among ZANU-PF supporters this year."
In Matebeleland, where even
ex-members of the local ZAPU (Zimbabwe African
People's Union) who are now
part of ZANU-PF are failing to attract support,
the absence of a backlash
against the opposition has further galvanised
young people into action as
the polls near.
"In the past we would have put up the posters at night
for fear of
backlashes from ZANU-PF supporters. Now we are pasting these
posters
side-by-side with Mugabe's supporters," the youthful and Bafana
said.
A political commentator with a Bulawayo-based pressure group
attributed the
greater mood of tolerance among ZANU-PF supporters to an
awareness that the
party could be defeated in the polls.
"Everybody,
including diehard ZANU-PF footsoldiers, seems to be accepting
that this is
not Robert Mugabe's year, and any attempts to actively take
part in acts of
intimidation could prove to be a dire mistake if Mugabe
loses," the analyst
told IWPR.
At the same time, the analyst suggested that voter
intimidation may be
continuing unreported in remote rural areas.
"In
the end, you get a ZANU-PF victory and people wonder what happened, but
this
party will simply claim they enjoy massive support in the rural areas,"
he
said.
Yamikani Mwando is the pseudonym of a reporter in Zimbabwe.
Institute for War & Peace Reporting
Calling the ex-finance minister a "prostitute" and a "frog" is
unlikely to
encourage him to back another candidate if the vote goes to a
second round.
By Joseph Sithole in Harare (AR No. 162,
25-Mar-08)
Presidential hopeful Simba Makoni has provoked the anger of
both
front-runners in Zimbabwe's upcoming election - opposition candidate
Morgan
Tsvangirai as well as incumbent Robert Mugabe.
However,
political analysts are warning that while Makoni's rivals may have
their
swords out for him at the moment, he might turn out to be the
kingmaker if
the presidential ballot on March 29 is inconclusive and a
run-off has to be
held.
Both Mugabe and Tsvangirai, who leads the bigger of two factions of
the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, see Makoni, who only
announced his intention to enter the presidential race on February 5, as a
rank outsider who plans to grab their votes. There are fears on both sides
of the political divide that Makoni could appeal to voters in both urban and
rural areas, something neither of their candidates is confident of
doing.
Tsvangirai's MDC enjoys its strongest following in poor urban
areas, while
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party holds sway mainly in rural areas
where a
sizeable population, including war veterans, police and army
personnel, were
given free land under Mugabe's chaotic land reform programme
launched in
2000.
Mugabe accuses Makoni of being a "traitor",
"sellout", a "prostitute" and a
puffed-up "frog" for leaving the ruling
party at a critical moment ahead of
joint presidential, parliamentary and
local elections.
Tsvangirai has laid two apparently contradictory charges
against Makoni,
accusing him variously of being a Mugabe plant designed to
confuse and split
the opposition electorate, or of being supported by
western powers opposed
to his MDC party.
The irony of the latter
allegation is that Tsvangirai himself has always
been accused by Mugabe of
being a puppet of Britain and other western powers
in pursuit of regime
change in Zimbabwe.
Makoni has rejected the allegations made by both
camps, without responding
in kind.
As the third force in this
election, Makoni combines a long history as a
government technocrat and
ZANU-PF member with a degree of credibility
derived from his reputation for
being both competent and uncorrupt. However,
despite his appeal to many in
the political classes who want change, Makoni
has not yet built up a
substantial power-base of his own.
A political observer who did not want
to be named noted that Makoni appealed
to moderates from both ZANU-PF and
the MDC, and had refrained from attacking
either side.
"They believed
they had their strategies worked out, then Makoni walks in
unannounced and
upsets the apple cart, as it were," he said.
The observer said Makoni's
main problem was that by launching his bid only
in February, "he came in too
late", and fewer major politicians than
expected had voiced public support
for him.
"It is unlikely now that his backers will come out this late,"
said the
commentator. "In any case, even if they did, many people have
already made
up their minds and you would need a miracle to sway them
now."
This commentator predicted that Tsvangirai would win, with Mugabe
second and
Makoni trailing in third place.
"For all practical
purposes, the presidential race is between Tsvangirai and
Mugabe, and short
of serious electoral irregularities, Tsvangirai is likely
to come out
victorious," he said.
However, another analyst forecast that Makoni could
play a crucial role even
in third place.
"My assessment is that
Makoni will come out third in the elections," said
Eldred Masunungure, a
lecturer in political sciences at the University of
Zimbabwe. "The real race
is between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. They both have
appeal, parties and a solid
infrastructure for their campaigns, all of which
Makoni does not
enjoy."
Yet, Masunungure said, Makoni could still draw off support from
the
disillusioned supporters of both ZANU-PF and the MDC.
"This
should help explain the anger of both Tsvangirai and Mugabe at Makoni's
sudden entry into the race, which has obviously badly upset their campaign
strategies," he said.
The analyst warned that expressions of
hostility could prove short-sighted
for both main candidates.
"What
they should not forget is that they might need Makoni when it matters
most,
in the event that none of them gets more than 50 per cent of the vote
as
required by law," he said, adding that he thought it unlikely any
candidate
would win the absolute majority needed to obviate a run-off
between the two
leading contenders.
"That is where Makoni's vote becomes decisive. He
becomes the kingmaker
because both candidates will then depend for their
fortunes on whom Makoni
chooses to throw in his lot with," he
said.
In making that choice, Makoni might be swayed by the level of abuse
he
received from either side, said Masunungure.
"This is where these
gratuitous insults become counterproductive, as they
might influence
Makoni's decision," he explained. "Politically they
[insults] may not
matter, but they affect the way you relate. You don't want
to work with
someone who calls you a prostitute or a frog, who denigrates
you as a
foreign imposition, implying that you can't think for yourself."
Joseph
Sithole is the pseudonym of a reporter in Zimbabwe.
Institute for War & Peace Reporting
For the first time since 1980, a presidential election could go to a
second
round, but analysts say President Robert Mugabe will do his level
best to
stop that happening.
By Mike Nyoni in Harare (AR No. 162,
25-Mar-08)
Recent assertions by President Robert Mugabe that the
opposition Movement
for Democratic Change is bound to lose the weekend
elections have heightened
suspicions that he plans to fix the
result.
Mugabe, probably facing his most uncertain electoral outcome to
date, told a
campaign rally in Chitungwiza, 30 kilometres from the capital
Harare, that
the Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, and its leader Morgan
Tsvangirai
will never rule Zimbabwe "in my lifetime".
This
categorical statement has increased fears that victory for Mugabe and
his
ZANU-PF party in the March 29 polls is a foregone conclusion and will be
secured through ballot-stuffing, voter intimidation, and manipulation of the
final figures.
On March 17, Mugabe introduced the Presidential Powers
(Temporary Measures)
Act which authorises police to be stationed inside
polling stations and to
assist disabled voters. This clearly increases the
risk that security forces
will be in a position to intimidate voters and
influence the choices they
make. Critics say this move, coming late in the
day, is in direct
contravention of an agreement to keep police away from
voting centres,
concluded by ZANU-PF and the MDC at the recent talks
mediated by the
Southern African Development Community, SADC.
Surveys
of attendance at pro- and anti-Mugabe campaign rallies show the
incumbent
trailing Tsvangirai by a growing margin.
In the unlikely event that the
results showed a defeat for Mugabe, he would
not take it lying down.
Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander Constantine
Chiwengwa and Police
Commissioner Augustine Chihuri recently made it clear
they would not accept
any other winner.
What is more probable is that the presidential election
will go to a second
round, for the first time since Zimbabwe gained
independence from Britain in
1980.
By law, the winning candidate must
obtain over 50 per cent of the votes
cast; if no one achieves this, the two
leading candidates go forward to a
second round within 21 days of the
ballot. With evidence that support for
Mugabe is waning, it is uncertain
whether he will gain the required absolute
majority, although it remains
unlikely that either of his main challengers -
the MDC's Tsvangirai and
former finance minister Simba Makoni - will do so,
either.
According
to Eldred Masunungure, a political scientist at the University of
Zimbabwe,
Mugabe will make every effort to avoid being embarrassed by being
forced
into a run-off. He suggested that this makes it all the more likely
that the
first-round results will be massaged at the national command centre
where
the final count will take place.
There has been talk that if the
first-round voting appeared to be going
against him, Mugabe might call a
halt to it, or alternatively that he might
postpone a re-run.
But as
Masunungure put it, "all these are academic discussions and
speculation" as
the president will take steps to prevent his electoral
ambitions going
awry.
"Mugabe will not allow himself to go through all this pain. That
explains
his insistence that no opposition leader or party will win the
elections
even this late in the hour. He knows he has played his cards
well," he said.
Both Tsvangirai and Mugabe have been drawing huge crowds
at their respective
campaign rallies. There are allegations that Mugabe is
coercing adult voters
and schoolchildren to attend his events, while
Tsvangirai is also bussing in
people to boost numbers at his
rallies.
Meanwhile, although Makoni - expelled from ZANU-PF shortly after
announcing
his election bid in February - has no political party of his own,
and few
resources to boost his campaign, he has unsettled both the Mugabe
and
Tsvangirai camps, which have attacked him out of concern that he will
win
over their supporters.
As the election draws near, the lines have
blurred between the traditional
rural power-base of ZANU-PF party and the
MDC's strength in urban areas. In
particular, commentators say it has got
harder for Mugabe to persuade rural
voters that he can save them from
economic hardship.
In the past, said one analyst in Harare, Mugabe was
able to use food as a
vote-winner. "This time, there is nothing to give to
the people, and they
are starving," he said. "He has been able to distribute
farming equipment
under the farm mechanisation programme, but people have
immediate needs to
feed their families."
This analyst noted that in
contrast to past elections, this campaign has
been marked by a lack of overt
violence perpetrated by youth militias and
veterans. This fact, he said, had
given people more options.
"People are freer now than they have ever been
to attend opposition
rallies," he said. "One cannot rule out the
psychological fear from past
experience, but we can see that people are now
venturing out to see for
themselves. Others realise voting to get rid of
Mugabe is the only option
they have left; it doesn't really matter who comes
in."
He said there was clear evidence that more people were attending
opposition
rallies than was the case in the past, and noted that there was
little
attempt by state media to hide this reality.
"The best Mugabe
can do now is to try and intimidate people so that they don't
go to vote,"
said the analyst. "He is already telling people that their vote
doesn't
count, as he did in Bulawayo."
Addressing a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's
second city, on March 23, Mugabe
warned those who backed the opposition that
they would be wasting their
vote.
Bulawayo and the two Matabeleland
provinces have voted overwhelmingly for
the MDC since 2000.
"You can
vote for them [MDC] but that will be a wasted vote," declared
Mugabe. "You
will be cheating yourself as there is no way we can allow them
to rule this
country. The MDC will not rule this country. It will never ever
happen."
The statement was uncannily similar to proclamations by Ian
Smith, the last
prime minister of what was then Rhodesia, who said black
people would "never
in a thousand years" rule the country.
The
analyst suggested that Mugabe's options were running out - even rigging
the
election could get him into trouble with the SADC, whose member states
used
to back him when no one else did.
"The old man is finished. This time he
is in a fix. Not even SADC can save
him now that regional economies are
bleeding because of Mugabe's policies,"
he said.
Mike Nyoni is the
pseudonym of a reporter in Zimbabwe.