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Police persist with PM house deal probe

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:43

Owen Gagare

POLICE are persisting with their controversial investigations into
allegations that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai misappropriated US$1,5
million he received from the Reserve Bank for the purchase of his official
residence in 2009, in a move which could trigger open clashes between
President Robert Mugabe and the state security forces behind the probe.

Mugabe approved release of the funds and virtually made it clear last week
that he was opposed to the investigation, warning police “not to just rush
to make up things against the prime minister”.

Since the probe started in June last year, police have neither confirmed nor
denied there is an investigation against Tsvangirai underway, although the
Zimbabwe Independent has unassailable proof that they were doing it.

This week police chief spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena said they were “not giving
a comment on the matter”.

Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri, a member of the Joint
Operations Command (JOC), which brings together army, police and
intelligence services chiefs, is personally handling the probe, although the
investigations officer is chief superintendent Alison Nyamupaguma from the
Criminal Investigations Department (CID). The CID has searched and seized
documents from banks and other premises hunting for evidence against
Tsvangirai.

Chihuri has written several letters demanding information from Reserve Bank
governor Gideon Gono who negotiated the deal. Gono, who initially cooperated
albeit cautiously, has since refused to be a star witness on behalf of the
state against Tsvangirai as the transaction was approved by Mugabe, sparking
a fierce fight within state institutions over the issue.

Police now want to arrest him for refusing to play ball, although that could
prove to be an uphill task given that he got approval from Mugabe to do the
transaction.

The situation is further complicated by disclosures by the Independent last
week that Vice-Presidents John Nkomo and Joice Mujuru and Deputy Prime
Ministers Arthur Mutambara and Thokozani Khupe were also currently building
houses with “state assistance” as part of the programme approved by Mugabe.

This has put police in a difficult position, although sources say their case
is premised on alleged “double-dipping” by Tsvangirai who received US$1,5
million from the central bank and an extra US$1 million from Treasury to buy
and renovate the same property located at No 49 Kew Drive in Highlands,
Harare.

Tony West Real Estate identified the house before funds were released from
the central bank for CBZ to pay the seller.

Tsvangirai’s relative Hebson Makuvise, who is now Zimbabwe’s ambassador to
Germany, received the funds on the premier’s behalf and did all transactions
that later followed as the money was transferred through various banks.

Tsvangirai insisted last week there was no issue as the money was a “loan”
and described the investigation as a “wild goose chase”. This was after
Mugabe had last week come out publicly warning police to be careful with
their probe.

Despite Mugabe’s pointed remarks over the case, the Independent, which first
exposed the investigation in detail, gathered this week that police are
carrying on with the probe, showing their determination to defy Mugabe and
nail Tsvangirai.

Sources within the police said this week JOC bosses were sticking to their
guns, hoping to stumble upon irrefutable evidence of fraud against
Tsvangirai along the way that would assist them in nailing him before
elections.

Official sources say security service chiefs were desperately campaigning
for Tsvangirai’s arrest to eliminate him from the race to state house.
Although there is no official complainant in the case, information gathered
this week showed that the police were pushing for Tsvangirai’s prosecution
with the state being the complainant.

“The state becomes the complainant in such a matter although no one has come
forward to file a complaint,” a senior officer said. “In serious matters
such as fraud and murder, we don’t need a complainant. If someone is killed
and we have evidence that someone committed the crime, we arrest that person
and bring the evidence to court, such as the murder weapon and so on,” the
officer said.

“In this case, we are banking on our strong evidence with the state being
the complainant. In any case, in criminal cases, the state is always the
complainant although someone would have filed a complaint. So it doesn’t
matter that no one has filed a case.”

Chihuri has been so involved in the investigation that he has been
personally writing letters searching for information. On July 14 last year,
he wrote to Gono asking him for his cooperation.

“I write to advise that we are carrying out investigations in the transfer
of US$1 500 000-00 from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to CBZ on 13 November
2009, purportedly for the purchase of the Prime Minister’s House,” Chihuri’s
letter reads.

“I kindly request you to avail any documents and information relating to
this case that you may have. In particular we would be interested in knowing
(i) How the money was requested and by who? (ii) What was the purpose for
the money? (iii) Is it a loan, if so payable by whom and when?”
The following day Gono replied to Chihuri’s letter.

“The US$1,5 million was requested by the Prime Minister, and cleared by His
Excellency the President on 13 November, 2009. He (The PM) wanted more for
both purchase and renovations but we could only recommend and get authority
for the $1,5 million from His Excellency, the President, with any balance
required being sourced later and elsewhere as we did not have the capacity
for more. I hold all the documentation and background to the loan,” he said.

“The money was for the payment of the Prime Minister’s residential house
including whatever component of renovations that were meant to be carried
out. The actual budget figure for intended renovations was not known nor was
it revealed to me then or to date.”

The securocrats are also investigating whether Finance minister Tendai Biti
was not an accomplice and also want him arrested over the US$500 million
(SDR funds) which the IMF gave to Zimbabwe in 2009.

Mugabe approved the release of Tsvangirai’s funds from both the RBZ and
treasury, to appease the premier who had partially pulled out of the
inclusive government in October 2009 in protest at Zanu PF’s failure to
honour the Global Political Agreement as well as Mugabe’s refusal to
allocate him an official residence.


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Constitution-drafters’ contracts extended

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:39

Gamma Mudarikiri /Wongai Zhangazha

CONTRACTS of the three principal constitution-drafters, former High Court
judge Justice Moses Chinhengo, Priscilla Madzonga and Brian Crozier, which
expired at the end of January, would be renewed soon after the completion of
the draft review process.
The drafters’ contracts expired on January 25, but Copac co-chairpersons
from the two MDC formations, Douglas Mwonzora and Edward Mkhosi, made this
undertaking after the trio’s status became a contentious issue with Zanu PF
pushing for them to be fired on accusations of ignoring popular views to
disenfranchise the former liberation movement.

Negotiators from the MDC, MDC-T and Zanu PF met on Tuesday in a bid to
resolve the contested issues which have slowed down drafting of the country’s
supreme law.

Among some of the contentious issues are structure of government, devolution
of power, the death penalty, homosexuality, dual citizenship and an
independent prosecuting authority.

Mwonzora of the MDC-T said the drafters’ contracts would be extended up to
the completion of the whole constitution-drafting process while Mkhosi of
the MDC led by Welshman Ncube added that the drafters would be recalled soon
after the draft review process was completed and this was not subject to
debate.

“Once we are ready with the reviewed draft, we will obviously recall the
drafters to continue and this is not subject to discussion,” said Mkhosi.

This comes against the backdrop of vehement protestations by Zanu PF Copac
co-chairperson Munyaradzi Paul Mangwana that his party had lost confidence
in the drafters and was lobbying the constitution making body’s management
committee not to approve an extension of their contracts.

Mangwana told the  Zimbabwe Independent on Tuesday that Zanu PF presented
its complaints to the constitution management committee accusing the
drafters of being “obnoxious and expressing neo-liberal views” in their
draft.

Mangwana said the renewal of the drafter’s contracts was, therefore, not
certain as his party was still waiting for the management committee’s
response to his party’s request for appointment of new drafters.

“If their contracts have expired there is absolutely no guarantee that they
will be renewed,” Mangwana said.

However, Mwonzora dismissed Zanu PF’s allegations saying the drafters had
done nothing wrong.

He said the drafters had worked as per the instruction of the three
political parties, but it was the incompetence of ZanuPF members who were
failing to act on what the parties had agreed.

In another development the three parties’ negotiators met on Tuesday to
review some of the contentious issues but no resolution was reached.
One negotiator said the issue of dual citizenship scared Zanu PF.

“Zanu PF is scared that the Diaspora is composed of MDC-T and MDC
supporters. We have a large fraction of Zimbabwe’s population outside the
country and they (Zanu PF) feel that towards an election it’s going to be a
challenge,” said the negotiator.Both MDC formations are advocating dual
citizenship.

On the structure of government, Zanu PF wants two vice presidents without a
prime minister to accommodate its party structure while the MDC parties
prefer a president with limited powers and a prime minister with executive
power.

They also prefer a structure with one deputy president.

The constitution-making process continues to be dogged by political haggling
stalling progress and the principals have not made it any easier by their
failure to deal with sticking issues referred to them.


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Scepticism over govt’s rights move

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:37

Nqobile Bhebhe

HUMAN Rights activists are taking a cautious approach to Justice minister
Patrick Chinamasa’s assertions that he would lobby cabinet to ratify the
United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or
Degrading Treatment, saying it’s to shore up support for Zimbabwe’s
chequered human rights record.
The convention came into effect in June 1987, but Zimbabwe refused to
endorse it.

Chinamasa, who was recently delisted from the European Union sanctions list,
said once ratified this would allow for the prosecution of those alleged to
have used torture in the process of investigating crimes.

Only last year Chinamasa defended the country’s human rights record at a UN
human rights conference in Geneva saying Zimbabwe had reformed its
constitution on several occasions to improve the country’s human rights
situation.

However, the MDC formations and civil society have long claimed the
existence of secret torture chambers used by state security agents to
torture political activists.

A social justice commentator, Edmore Tshuma, doubted government’s commitment
saying the prospect of the Zimbabwe government ratifying the UN convention
against torture would be a dramatic irony.

Tshuma said it perhaps was a gimmick designed to measure the public’s latest
views about President Robert Mugabe’s long reign.

“Everyone knows that Zimbabwe is one of the few countries in the world in
which the state has used torture as a weapon to silence the opposition and
perceived detractors,” said Tshuma. “The only way Zimbabwe can get out of
this is through amnesty up to a certain period, but as it is, there are even
non-state actors acting on behalf of Zanu PF. This does not exonerate them,”
said Tshuma.

Two civil society groups  in Johannesburg recently launched a legal bid to
compel South African authorities to investigate and prosecute Zimbabwean
officials accused of crimes against humanity.

The Southern African Litigation Centre and the Zimbabwe Exiles Forum said
there were 18 high-level Zimbabwean officials in South Africa accused of
committing acts of torture.

The application was lodged in the North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria last
week and is set to be heard on March 26.

The MDC-T claims hundreds of its supporters were killed by suspected Zanu PF
supporters and state security agents in the run-up to the controversial 2008
presidential election runoff which Mugabe eventually contested alone after
then opposition leader and current Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai pulled
out in protest over alleged state-sponsored violence.

Efforts to have perpetrators prosecuted in Zimbabwe have thus far hit a
brick wall.

Another human rights activist Albert Nxumalo said at face value Chinamasa’s
move should be applauded, but viewed with great caution.
“My take is that Chinamasa and company now realise that the lobby by human
rights groups to the international community to arrest and send perpetrators
to the Hague is gaining recognition,” said Nxumalo.


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Chihuri defies High Court order

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:33

Herbert Moyo

POLICE Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri is allegedly resisting a court
order to release vehicles impounded last year by the vehicle theft section
at Southerton Police Station in Harare, amid allegations that one car was
“auctioned” to a senior officer.

Brighton Matikiti filed a suit in the High Court seeking the release of his
Mercedes Benz E320 and a Land Rover Freelander impounded by the police.
Chihuri is the first respondent while the Officer in Charge of Southerton
Police Station (referred to in the court papers only as Mr Masendu), and a
detective Mangena from the same station have been cited as the second and
third respondents.

Despite a High Court order granted in favour of Matikiti in August 2011, his
cars have not been returned to him, with Chihuri only submitting an opposing
letter after a final order had already been given in a default judgement.

The top cop described the police’s failure to submit opposing papers as a
“bona fide mistake of fact” because officials in his legal division, named
as Mr Mawodza and Ms Kundai had not fully grasped what they were supposed to
do.

“I inquired into the circumstances surrounding the granting of the default
judgement and concluded that it was not as a result of the respondents’
wilful default but absence of understanding between the two, namely Mr
Mawodza and Ms Kundai, who appear to have had the desire to file papers but
failed to grasp what exactly was required in the circumstances,” Chihuri
said in an affidavit to the High Court.

Documents seen by the Zimbabwe Independent show that Matikiti bought the two
cars from a Harare car dealer, Felix Nyirenda, in 2009. Matikiti
subsequently sold the Mercedes Benz to a buyer who, when he attempted to
register the car in his name, was arrested for allegedly being in possession
of stolen property.

It was then that he referred the police to Matikiti who in turn implicated
Nyirenda. Nyirenda was arrested together with a Betty Mamvura and Frank Dube
for allegedly smuggling cars stolen from the United Kingdom.

Both cars were impounded and sent to Southerton Police Station where they
were to be kept as exhibits.

Matikiti claimed the police went on to auction the Mercedes Benz, which was
bought by a senior officer and the charges against the trio were withdrawn
as a cover up.

The cover up only came to light when Matikiti tried to recover the vehicles
after being sued by the man to whom he had sold the Mercedes. Matikiti wrote
to the Southerton Police and went to the Magistrates’ Court only to discover
that all charges had been withdrawn. Nyirenda, Mamvura and Dube were
re-arrested and brought to trial after Matikiti laid a complaint.

However, the trio was acquitted on December 23, 2011.Under normal
circumstances, that should have been reason enough for the cars to be
returned to Matikiti as there was no longer any justification to keep them
as exhibits.

Matikiti claimed in his court papers that the police held an auction where
the Mercedes was allegedly bought for a paltry US$150 by a senior police
officer. He also claimed that Nyirenda sent him a message saying the police
were demanding US$5 000 for the release of the car.

Despite the court order, Chihuri continued to dig in, claiming that the cars
in question were “tainted” and it would be a “grave miscarriage of justice
and a perpetuation of a crime if these two tainted motor vehicles could be
transferred and vest title in any person, no matter how innocent or clean
the hands in which they find themselves in”.

He suggested that the best remedy was to forfeit them to the state under the
Serious Offences (Confiscation of Profits Act), regardless of whether
anybody would be prosecuted for the offence. Another alternative would be to
forfeit them in terms of the Customs and Excise Act as there allegedly was
evidence they had been smuggled into the country, or to confiscate them in
terms of the Criminal Procedure and Evidence Act.

A legal source close to the case said the police had no legal grounds for
holding onto the cars and queried their insistence that there was a criminal
case when the accused trio were acquitted.

“It’s unusual for Chihuri to write an affidavit in his personal capacity
over an issue where he is cited in his professional capacity,” the source
said. “This clearly shows that he has a personal interest in the matter. His
(Chihuri’s) involvement should have been restricted to telling his officers
to release the cars to Matikiti. He should not even be talking about the
non-payment of customs duty because he does not work for Zimra,” said the
source.


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MDC-T Byo in turmoil

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:32

Brian Chitemba

FRESH turmoil has rocked MDC-T Bulawayo province as factions jostle to
replace the provincial women’s assembly chairperson, Senator Gladys Gombami
who died late last year.
The new clashes follow on the heels of simmering tensions rocking the MDC-T-
controlled Bulawayo City Council where councillor Nduna Dlala defected to
the MDC led by Welshman Ncube while four others are likely to jump ship.

MDC-T insiders said a fresh struggle had erupted between the party’s
Bulawayo provincial chairman Gorden Moyo and his longstanding rival
Mzilikazi senator Mattson Hlalo over the person to replace Gombami.

Daggers have already been drawn and the factional battle is expected to
escalate in coming weeks.

Hlalo’s faction has kicked off a campaign for its preferred candidate Dorcas
Nyoni while Moyo’s group is set to field Jennifer Kawona.  Bulawayo Central
MP and the party’s provincial vice-chairperson Dorcas Sibanda also wants the
post for herself since it wields more influence than her current ceremonial
post.

“The women’s assembly is a huge constituency and determines voting patterns,
that’s why factional wars have re-emerged,” said a source close to the
goings on.

It has also emerged that Deputy Prime Minister Thokozani Khupe, a close Moyo
associate, has been sucked into the nasty intra-party clashes after she
intervened to stop Kawona from contesting.

“Khupe and her allies are planning to choose another candidate but it’s not
yet clear who is favoured. However, behind-the-scenes campaigning is raging
in the province,” said the source.

Moyo and Hlalo were last year involved in running battles in the run-up to
the party’s provincial elective conference.


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Currency regime: Where do we go now from here?

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:28

Happiness Zengeni

SINCE the introduction of a multi-currency regime in 2009, Zimbabwe has made
progress towards macro-economic stabilisation. Inflation came down from
billion-percentage record highs to 4,3% in January, while the economy has
registered substantial growth rates in the past three years albeit coming
from a low base.
The growth in the economy was largely driven by exogenous factors due to
firming international prices of commodities and metals. Zimbabwe has been
recovering significantly mainly because of dollarisation and exchange rate
stabilisation which normally produce a major rebound after years of decline.

Under dollarisation, transaction costs of doing international business have
come down as the conversion process to and from the local currency was
eliminated.

Dollarisation has also eliminated the risk of high inflation and currency
devaluation. This is premised on the fact that in a dollarisation system,
the dollarised economy cannot devalue the anchor currency it has adopted.

Government adopted a multi-currency system, allowing the United States
dollar, rand and pound, among other currencies, to be used in the economy.
This brought stability in business, making budgets and planning easier. The
move also eased pressure on payment systems, while ensuring a smooth flow of
transactions in the economy in a stable macro-economic environment. Broadly,
this allowed the economy to rebound after a decade of cumulative decline.

However, the changeover resulted in serious accounting implications which
have a bearing on the opening trial balances of businesses as at January 1
2009.  The question accountants had to deal with at the time was how do you
translate a Zimbabwean dollar balance sheet into a US dollar one?  What
exchange rate would be used?  This challenge was even more complicated for
institutions with year-ends after 31 Dec 2008.

While most of these transitional problems have been resolved, the real
debate within government and outside remains what should succeed the
multi-currency regime. Should Zimbabwe go back to the liquidated Zimbabwean
dollar, adopt the US dollar or join the Common Monetary Area (CMA), now the
Multilateral Monetary Area, which links South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and
Namibia.

Tony Hawkins, economic professor at the Graduate School of Management at the
University of Zimbabwe, told the Mandel Gibbs symposium last week that
dollarisation was by far the most important driver for economic stability.

World Bank country economist Nadia Piffaretti said the country needs to
maintain the multi-currency regime in the short to medium term.

Economic Planning minister Tapiwa Mashakada says in order for Zimbabwe to
stay the course of recovery, there is need to ensure that the multi-currency
system remains until 2015.

Presenting the macro-economic framework for 2012 recently, Mashakada said
the economy was projected to grow by 9,4% in 2012, up from 9,3% registered
in 2011. This growth is expected to be driven by increased production in
major sectors of the economy, namely mining, agriculture, tourism and
manufacturing.

However, the major assumption underpinning this growth is the continuous use
of the multi-currency system. The other assumptions are the firming
international commodity prices, especially minerals, adherence to cash
budgeting and a stable political and economic environment.

Mashakada said the multi-currency system has to be kept for the economy to
stay on the course to recovery. Government abandoned the useless local
currency in February 2009.

However, debate is currently raging within certain circles in government on
whether or not to bring back the Zimbabwean dollar. President Robert Mugabe
made references to this last week in interviews with the state media.

Those pushing for the local currency’s return want government to regain its
control over the economy, thus enabling it to deal with such problems as
liquidity in the market.

Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono has said the multi-currency regime was
fraught with difficulties and would not be sustainable in the long run. He
said, however, that the local currency should only return when the
fundamentals are right.

In his 2012 budget, Finance minister Tendai Biti said the multi-currency
regime would remain in place until the end of 2012 where it is hoped it
would be replaced by a single currency for the Southern Africa Development
Community (Sadc).

Options have been bandied around about the route the currency system in this
country should take. There are those advocating for Zimbabwe to reintroduce
a local currency linked to the Multilateral Monetary Area (MMA), which means
Zimbabwe would revert to its own local currency, but the exchange rate would
be on a par with the rand.

Analysts say the MMA would be the best option available because Zimbabwe is
largely integrated and dependent on the South African economy in terms of
imports, exports and the volume of traffic, which includes the movement of
goods, people and skills transfer. This system would make it easier to shift
to the Sadc single currency.

Then there are others pushing for full dollarisation in which the US dollar
is adopted as the nation’s currency. However, economists argue that
dollarisation might not be the best option because the Zimbabwean economy
was remotely linked to the US economy and too minute by comparison.

Yet some want the introduction of the gold-backed standard monetary system
whereby the standard economic unit of account is a fixed weight of gold.
Others have also called for the adoption of the Chinese Yuan, arguing that
Zimbabwe’s economic recovery was at the mercy of the US dollar, which was
facing threats from the global financial crisis.

Gono, a proponent of this idea, said the Chinese yuan would benefit the
country more as the US dollar was fast ceasing to be the world’s reserve
currency. The move would also consolidate  government’s “Look East” policy.

However, most analysts say reverting to the local currency would be suitable
in the long-term to avoid destabilising recovery and growth enjoyed since
dollarisation.

Market analyst Jerome Negonde said the main problem around the
reintroduction of a local currency was negative perception in the wake of
the previous decade-long hyperinflation.

“Confidence in any currency is lost if there was significant loss of value
in that currency in the past. The fact that money will be printed at will
shows that the country can easily slip back to the hyperinflationary
 levels,” Negonde said.


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New measures to ease liquidity crunch

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:30

Reginald Sherekete

THE recently-announced measures by the Ministry of Finance and Reserve Bank
of Zimbabwe to improve liquidity should ease challenges being experienced in
the financial sector and the entire economy in general,  market analysts
said this week.
They expect the measures, which include the restoration of the central bank’s
lender of last resort (LOLR) status, to result in the decline of interest
rates.
“The repatriation of nostro accounts provides a temporary reprieve to the
current liquidity crunch in the market as it gives  banks breathing space to
restructure their asset portfolios to bring more cash onto the balance
sheets,” said Brains Muchemwa, an economic analyst.

“The unlocking of nostro balances and statutory reserves held by the RBZ is
expected to bolster liquidity on the back of an active role of lender of
last resort by the central bank. These initiatives will definitely induce
some liquidity and activity in the money market,” a banker said.

Banks have been directed to maintain a maximum of 25% of their nostro
account  balances offshore to meet their immediate international payment
obligations. A nostro bank account is an account that is held in a foreign
country by a domestic bank, denominated in the currency of that country.
Nostro accounts are used to facilitate settlement of foreign exchange and
trade transactions.

The RBZ said the move was necessitated by serious concerns among
stakeholders that deposits mobilised in Zimbabwe were being utilised to
support economies of foreign nations.

“With effect from March 1 2012 banking institutions will be required to
maintain a maximum of 25% of their nostro accounts balances offshore to meet
their day to day international payment obligations,” said Gono. “The maximum
amount of nostro balances maintained offshore will be increased to 30% from
June 30 2012.”

The repatriation of nostro balances is expected to unlock part of the more
than US$400 million believed to be held in foreign banks and ease the
current pressures in the financial sector.

Gono said the release of excess balances in nostro accounts and the lifting
of previously announced cash withdrawal limits would improve the liquidity
situation in the economy and encourage the use of the formal banking system.

But some analysts said the proposed reforms on nostro balances were against
the notion of liberalised foreign exchange controls which permit the
freeflow of foreign currency in and out of Zimbabwe. They said that the
country was currently benefiting from usage of free-flowing funds after it
adopted a multi-currency regime and such laws would only increase country
risk, which impedes foreign direct investment.

Given that foreign currency balances held at the RBZ were wiped out through
quasi-government expenditure at the height of Zimbabwe’s economic crisis,
which was characterised by an acute shortage of foreign currency, some
corporates prefer to hold the bulk of their deposits in banks through nostro
accounts.

But Gono said the central bank remained committed to the continued
liberalisation of the exchange controls.
The resuscitation of the lender of last resort by the central bank is
expected to reduce interest rate differentials since the RBZ will be able to
determine the direction of interest rates through the use of the overnight
accommodation rate.

“The lender of last resort functionality will thaw the inter-bank overnight
funding costs of banks that are currently very expensive,” said Muchemwa.
“As more reasonable and flexible funding options become available from the
RBZ, the overall costs of funding liquidity gaps on bank balance sheets come
down.”

An increase in the overnight rate will see banks raising their deposit rates
so as to attract deposits at a cost less than the accommodation rate offered
by the central bank. Banks have been accused of offering very low deposit
rates as compared to their high lending rates.

“Eventually that transmits to the lowering of the general levels of interest
rates in the market, the exact extent of which will be determined by the
proportion of overnight funding to the quantum of interest bearing deposits
sitting on bank balance sheets,” said Muchemwa.

With the annual inflation for January at 4,3%, a proper usage of the LOLR
tool to manage interest rates should see banks offering real interest rates
on deposits to encourage a savings culture, given that the most bank
deposits are transitory.

The central bank announced the increase in the liquid asset ratio for banks
to 30% in a bid to promote prudential liquidity management.

Analysts said the move will bring down loan-to-deposit ratios for banks,
given that the rate averaged 72% by the end of December 2011. This will
impact on loan provision to the private sector and ultimately affect credit
expansion and growth in the economy.

Muchemwa said: “The increase in liquid asset ratio definitely affects the
ability of banks to underwrite more loans, but considering the need to have
liquid banks in a tight market, it is more important to have bigger liquid
asset portfolios on banks’ balance sheet so that they are able to discharge
their obligations effectively and equally reduce impacts of systemic risks.”
However, some analysts say these measures are cosmetic and will not resolve
the problem mainly caused by a poor balance-of -payment position.

As at February 3, total banking sector deposits had increased to US$3,45
billion whilst total loans remained static at around US$2,78 billion. In
proposals to the central bank, Bankers Association of Zimbabwe said the loan
to deposit ratio should be maintained at around 70%, 10% below the current
80% average.


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Bank deposits up but liquidity crunch persists

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:27

Gamma Mudarikiri

ZIMBABWE’S bank deposits to December last year grew 44% to US$3,32 billion
from US$2,33 billion in the same period in 2010 despite the current
liquidity crunch.
According to the Africa Development Bank (AfDB) February monthly review
report, the increase was driven by economic recovery and improving depositor
confidence.

The AfDB, however, said the level of bank deposits reflected low average
incomes in most sectors of the economy and low savings, with more money
circulating outside the formal banking sector than within it.

The increase in deposits, according to the AfDB, has not improved liquidity.

As of December 31 2011, demand deposits registered 57,4 %, saving and short
term deposits 33% while long-term deposits remained suppressed at 9,6 %.

Short-term deposits continue to dominate the total deposits, a situation
which the AfDB said did not support long term investments.

“The composition of bank deposits is unfavourable for long-term investment
given the asset liability mismatch. It is therefore not surprising that the
bulk of bank loans to the private sector are short term loans,” the bank
said.

Banks in the period under review maintained an aggressive loan book as
evidenced by an average loan-to-deposit ratio of 82,7 %.

Lending rates however continue to be high owing to a persistent liquidity
crisis and limited external lines of credit because of the country’s
perceived high economic and political risk.

At the end of 2011, deposit and savings rates averaged 8,7% and 2,1%,
respectively.

Zimbabwe’s savings rates are however negative compared to other countries in
the region, and this is not conducive to savings mobilisation, the AfDB
said.

Regional  savings in the period under review averaged 6,67% with  Mozambique
recording 9,68%, Zambia 7,4% , South Africa (6%)  while Malawi registered
3,6%.

Operations of banks continue to be hampered by a myriad of challenges.
Delayed cash payments and illegal cash externalisation continue to suppress
the operations of the sector.

According to the AfDB, banks cited high operating costs which include the
use of emergency generators to operate automated teller machines (ATMs) due
to frequent power outages.

Against these high operating costs, bank sources of revenue have been
limited to non-interest income sources such as bank charges.

The cash limits which government will scrap in this month could further
spell disaster to the banking sector, according to the AfDB. It said cash
limits could weaken bank depositor confidence and cause panic in cash
withdrawals, a development which will reduce deposits.

Some of the banks are likely to have their licences revoked after failing to
comply with the US$12, 5 million minimum capital requirement.  Royal Bank,
the Zimbabwe Allied Banking Group (ZABG) and Genesis Merchant Bank are still
to meet the minimum capitalisation requirements.

The AfDB said as of 31 December 2011, ZABG Bank and Genesis Merchant Bank
had negative capital levels of US$15,3 million and US$3,2 million
respectively.

The absence of the central bank’s lender of the last resort facility coupled
with restricted inter-bank lending continue to hamper operations of the
sector.


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We must insist on reforms before polls

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:06

Qhubani Moyo

I HAVE no doubt the majority of Zimbabweans from across the political
divide, including those in Zanu PF, quietly agree that general elections
should only be held after substantial political reforms necessary for free
and fair elections to avoid a repeat of the past electoral experiences.
Given the people’s horrendous experiences during previous election periods,
it stands to reason that people would not want a repeat of the past.
Elections in Zimbabwe are now synonymous with political instability and
characterised by harassment, intimidation, violence and murder. This is what
polls in this country since 1980 have been about. Brutality and killings
underlay elections from 1980 up to 2008.

For that reason, if no other, people are always anxious about the coming on
of elections. That is precisely why well-meaning and fair-minded Zimbabweans
would tell you that they don’t want a repeat of 2008, or for those old
enough; 1985 or 1990.

There is a clique straddling Zanu PF structures and state security
institutions which is desperately working day and night to railroad the
country into early elections without necessary conditions for free and fair
polls.

Myths have now been created to justify this mad rush towards elections which
cannot be different from the previous ones given that conditions have
remained the same. The outcome would also inevitably be disputed and
therefore the current political stalemate would remain. The situation could
possibly get worse.

That is why all those with the national interest at heart and want to see
this country progress are saying we need institutional and electoral reforms
before elections. This is specifically the reason why after June 2008, Zanu
PF and the two MDC formations entered into the Global Political Agreement
(GPA). The agreement was designed to give the country a reprieve after the
June 2008 bloodbath and create an environment for credible elections.

However, Zanu PF, which entered the GPA and signed it willingly, now wants
to wriggle out of an agreement which saved this country from possible
mayhem. They are using all sorts of pretexts to stampede the nation towards
elections. To justify its position, Zanu PF, which actually ruined the
country and reduced people to paupers, now claims without any sense of irony
the inclusive government is dysfunctional –– a wholly self-serving
assertion.

Myths are then created to support and sustain this travesty. The first one
is that the unity government is completely paralysed and can no longer
function. Thus they infer that if we have Zanu PF in power, alone after
elections, things would be better.

The second one is that elections must be held quickly so that this paralysis
can be resolved by President Robert Mugabe and his cronies. The other one is
that Mugabe is not supposed to consult anyone before calling for elections.

Needless to say all these weird claims have no basis in reality. The
inclusive government may have problems but its function as a transitional
arrangement is mainly to create conditions for free and fair elections and
it is capable of doing that if the GPA is implemented or if Zanu PF fulfills
its side of the bargain.

The insinuation that Mugabe and Zanu PF would do better than the current
coalition government is simply unfounded given the scope and scale of their
failure before 2009. And of course, the contention that Mugabe can call for
unilateral elections without pulling out of the GPA, which he said last week
he does not intend to do, is baseless. If Zanu PF wants unilateral elections
it must first withdraw from the GPA.

But the reasons why all this premeditated confusion and uncertainty are
contrived are clear. The Zanu PF clique behind all this knows only too well
that there is no way Mugabe and his party would win credible elections
conducted in a peaceful environment. It is evidently clear the group calling
for early polls without reforms is the same coterie which ran a bloody
presidential election run-off in June 2008 and ultimately staged a
smash-and-grab to put Mugabe back in power without a legitimate mandate.

This group is currently rehashing the same sinister plot to cause chaos and
suffering to ensure Mugabe and Zanu PF avoid defeat in the next elections.
During the March 2008 and the subsequent bloody presidential poll run-off,
the majority of Zanu PF MPs had literally abandoned Mugabe (and he remains
very bitter about that) after realising he had become a hard sell to the
electorate.

Although the full story of what actually happened between March and June
2008 is yet to be fully told, it is fairly clear Mugabe was about to give up
but was managed and psyched up to fight back by the securocrats that
surround him. Most of these elements in the securocracy felt that if Mugabe
were to throw in the towel, they would be left exposed and held to account
for gross human rights abuses, including Gukurahundi, and looting state
coffers. This group has accumulated wealth which it cannot legitimately
account for and will fight to the bitter end, particularly now that there is
the exclusive Marange diamonds feeding trough.

It is important to always remember some of the current state security
service chiefs were directly involved in the Gukurahundi massacres,
Murambatsvina and the 2008 killings, hence their determination to hang onto
power at all costs.

The same clique calling for elections without reforms is the one that
literally imposed Mugabe as the president in June 2008 to protect its own
interests, while it regrouped and reorganised during the GPA intervening
period.

However, Zanu PF has not yet fully recovered from the shock 2008 defeat and
resultant paralysis. So in reality Mugabe and Zanu PF are not ready for
elections. Apart from trying to scare away opponents, Mugabe’s body language
and speeches show he is not ready for polls. He is only putting on a brave
face to sustain the false claim that other parties are opposed to elections.

Realising that Mugabe is now old and frail, the group behind early elections
is looking beyond him and hopes that if he wins, he would not finish his
term and it would then replace him with a leader of its choice. It’s a
succession issue. Indigenisation, like land reform, is the rallying call for
this group.

From nowhere, this group has emerged from the woods armed with a scandalous
argument that reforms must come or always come after elections, not the
other way round. But this argument, even given an intellectual veneer, is
unfounded and tenuous.

The GPA was created to introduce reforms, mainly electoral ones, so as to
create an environment for credible elections. So all serious and
well-meaning Zimbabweans, supported by Sadc and AU the guarantors of the
GPA, must insist on reforms before elections.

Never again should the people of this nation, who have suffered all sorts of
horrific abuses under Mugabe’s disastrous rule, allow evil to triumph over
good.

Moyo is the National Organising Secretary of the MDC led by Professor
Welshman Ncube. Email: qmoyo2000@yahoo.co.uk


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MuckRaker: Does anybody else get a chance to lead?

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:00

HAPLESS motorists along Mutare Road on Saturday had to bear the brunt of
cadres rushing to make it to the 21st February Movement celebrations in
Mutare. Despite the “ravages” of the “illegal” sanctions the road was awash
with the latest Mercs, Range Rovers and BMWs which seemed to have been given
licence to flout the rules of the road.

Even the hired commuter omnibuses ferrying Zanu PF supporters were given
free rein to test their cars’ maximum speeds. This was all under the glare
of the police who were stationed every few kilometres.

As if this was not enough, motorists also had to contend with an almost
kilometre-long presidential motorcade, which was also trying to keep up with
President Mugabe’s helicopter. One of the cars in the entourage, a brand new
Mercedes Benz E-Class, veered off the road and burst into flames.
It was amusing then to hear President Mugabe talking about having made “a
defiant statement against sanctions and imperialism”.

The “revolutionary” party does not like the imperialists, but they surely
like their cars which they continue to “defiantly” drive. Since we are now
looking East one would have expected to see some more oriental car brands.
Instead of these “imperialist” brands, cadres can choose from a wide array
of Chinese saloons such as the Pegasus, Sailor and Wingle or even the Great
Wall Hover-TT.

‘Our people have defied sanctions. This is a crowd of defiance; defiance of
sanctions and defiance of imperialism,” he said.
The fact that free food and entertainment were available could have helped
as well. The Standard reports that an estimated 60 cattle were slaughtered
to feed guests at the lavish party.

Meanwhile President Mugabe expressed puzzlement at the losses Zanu PF
sustained in the 2008 harmonised elections.
Speaking at the birthday celebration bash in Mutare, Mugabe said: “I am not
happy that 20 out of the 26 seats in Manicaland voted MDC-T.”
“It was a shock. I did not understand what had gone wrong,” said Mugabe.

The fact that inflation skyrocketed to billions percent, unemployment rose
to above 80% and there were empty store shelves under Mugabe’s watch could
have had something to do with it, we think.

The “huge” crowds that greeted the president in Mutare were the biggest
ever. They showed the president’s popularity was growing, Manicaland Central
Committee member Esau Mapfumi said.

That’s a bit strange because we were told he was always hugely popular in
Mutare. How then can his popularity be growing? The supporters weren’t bused
in, Mapfumi insisted.

No Esau. Of course not. Zanu PF never does that does it?
“I’m still strong to lead,” Mugabe was reported as saying. Will anybody else
ever get a chance?

Muckraker has enjoyed reading the contradictions mushrooming in the state
media over the past week. Here were a couple of examples in Monday’s edition
of the Herald: “Cops connive with cattle rustlers in stocktheft cases”.
“Police officer in court for kidnapping”. And then: “Malawi police
delegation hails ZRP”.
Great stuff guys!

Good to see Munyaradzi Huni back in action. Last Sunday he sought to justify
the purging of Zimbabwe’s judiciary in 2000.
Zanu PF got “fed up” with the judges “frustrating” the Zanu PF government
through their judgements, he says.

“Zanu PF got fed up with colonial residue on the bench and through the
Minister of Justice, Cde Patrick Chinamasa, the party went on to transform
the judiciary.”

“Now South Africa is seized with the same matter and the ANC, just like Zanu
PF, is going ahead with the reforms and today Zimbabwe’s judiciary is a
breath of fresh air as it reflects and represents the black majority.”

So there you have it. When the government is “fed up” with rulings it finds
inconvenient it transforms the bench! Is the judiciary aware that it is part
of a Zanu PF race-based campaign?

Huni refers to Lindiwe Mazibuko as “a senior ANC official”. In fact she is a
senior DA official. And he seems to think the South African judiciary and
media are still in the hands of whites.

Is the chief justice white? Is Huni unaware that the ANC regards the chief
justice as an ally? And that much of the bench has been transformed in
recent years?

As for the media, ownership was long ago transformed. The Mail&Guardian,
Avusa which owns the Sunday Times, and other leading titles have been in
black hands for some years. They have “published and been damned” for
exposing the ANC’s endemic corruption.
Where has Huni been all these years?

The Sunday Mail’s Business Xtra carried a story telling us “Zim to lure
South African investors”.
In the same edition we are told “Government moves into Zimplats”. That
should go down like a lead balloon!

We were just wondering the other day what had happened to Zanu PF’s
anti-sanctions petition when a story about it popped up in the Herald last
Friday. The government had “stepped up the anti-sanctions drive with
officials converting more than 2,2 million signatures gathered during the
National Petition Campaign into electronic form”.

This should be interesting with Zanu PF officials in charge! What has been
going on during the intervening period? A great deal of scanning we gather.
What will the EU make of this dubious petition when it is presented to them?

We were interested to note that our old friend Godwills Masimirembwa, having
been denied membership of the Law Society of Zimbabwe (LSZ) on the grounds
of some small matter involving client funds, has hit back at the LSZ saying
they had no legal basis to deny him membership and vowed to continue with
his Zimbabwe Institute of Legal Studies project which he chairs.

The LSZ has said it won’t recognise the project or any qualifications
emerging from it.

Masimirembwa says he has applied to the Higher and Tertiary Education
ministry to be registered as a vocational training institute.
But LSZ chairman Tinoziva Bere said he would inform the ministry that
Masimirembwa had been barred from practising.

Masimirembwa has been active in Mabvuku, we understand, preparing for the
Zanu PF primaries. Readers may recall his role as Prices and Incomes Tsar in
the dark days of economic controls when he arguably inflicted more damage on
the economy than the rest of Zanu PF put together. Then there was the issue
of the chicken farm which we will save for another day.

Meanwhile it was interesting to note that presidential apologist Nathaniel
Manheru has been excusing Chinese workers in Bikita who have been helping
themselves to tortoises for consumption.

“What is so unusual about some ordinary Chinese catching these for the pot?”
Manheru asks without revealing these 40 animals were thrown alive into a pot
of boiling water? He demonstrates contempt for Cites, “a convention that
stops us from offloading ‘tasks’ (sic) from elephants all of them dead” ––
which is more than can be said for the “mere” tortoises!

Will Cites staff and tourists please note this official condonation of
cruelty and savagery by Zanu PF’s new friends.

Last week we had these officials saying it was OK to chop down trees
designated for wetland conservation. The trees had been set aside for
adoption by visiting heads of state but were now to be sacrificed to a
Chinese hotel project.

ZTA boss Karekoga Kaseke was quick to say it was the enemies of our Chinese
allies who were opposing the project, just as Manheru was prepared to
justify extraordinary cruelty just to indulge our new Chinese masters. So
much for sovereignty!

We were interested to note the discovery of Mr Oscar Munyoro Katsukunya who,
we were told, taught President Mugabe in 1928. As soon as news got out,
Media minister Webster Shamu descended on him last week with a posse of
journalists who were amazed to discover there was somebody in the country
older than the president!

Mr Katsukunya says he was either born in 1897, which seems unlikely, or 1907
which is what his ID card says. He said Mugabe as a pupil at Kutama Mission
came to his and other teachers’ attention because he was “short-tempered
though principled”. These are similar to observations made in his biography
Dinner with Mugabe by Heidi Holland.

She recorded his temperament and capacity to sulk when teased by other boys,
something Shamu omitted to mention during his visit.

We are amused by the number of letters or articles appearing in the
government press excoriating the British in general and Morgan Tsvangirai in
particular. These mailings are often sent from the UK.

One such mail appeared in the Herald of Monday and was signed “Cde Cad Mash,
UK”.

He wanted to know why Tsvangirai hadn’t done more to promote development in
Bindura.

Tsvangirai has recently been to Chiadzwa. Why is it that he expects Anjin,
Mbada and Marange to build roads but says nothing about Bindura Nickel
 Mine?” Cde Cad Mash wanted to know.

We have another point for Cde Mash. Why does he pontificate from the comfort
of the UK? Why doesn’t he come and share his patriotic zeal with the crazies
in Zanu PF? How many places are there that have gone downhill since
Independence and are crying out for development. Instead of challenging
Tsvangirai to give answers, why doesn’t Cde Mash come and fix things
himself. He might even promote development in Bindura if he sets his mind to
it, instead of attacking Tsvangirai in the Herald of Last Resort which any
fool can do? Come on Cde Mash. Put your money where your mouth is.

The bootlicking continued unabated this week. War veterans leader, Jabulani
Sibanda, said President Mugabe’s birthday was an important day, not only for
the Zimbabwean people and Africa, but for all other oppressed people the
world over, including the Aborigines and Maoris.

This was all because Mugabe had “defended” them at United Nations
conferences apparently.

“In song, dance, poetry, chantings and various antics,” says ZBC,
“Zimbabweans from different social backgrounds came together in unison to
express love for their leader and nation builder.”

Several groups including the business community, government ministers,
students and diplomats were “out in full force”, ZBC claims. Whatever that
means!

The Herald is running a competition to see who can make the most gushing
tribute to Gushungo.

On Tuesday their letters column carried the following: “You are a living
epistle and testimony of true leadership not written in ink but with the
true revolutionary spirit that you are an epitome of. The devils of
counterfeit democracy know you and tremble.”

It was signed “Bro Edra, Kadoma”. Look out Kadoma. You have a fanatic in
your midst!

Muckraker is cutting out all the gushing noises to enter them in the
competition. Cde Cad Mash and Bro Edra are leading the lickspittle pack at
present. Other contestants will be announced in due course.

News that the Zimbabwe Media Commission is reporting the Sunday Times and
The Zimbabwean to the authorities for not registering with the ZMC takes us
back to the sinister days of the Daily News’ closure.

The Zimbabwean media face the same threats and hostility today that they did
in 2003. Yet Aldo dell’Ariccia seems to think the position of the media has
improved and Catherine Ashton claims things have generally improved in
Zimbabwe.

A case of the blind leading the blind?


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Eric Bloch Column: The banking crisis, far-reaching effects

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:58

THE Minister of Finance, Tendai Biti and RBZ governor Gideon Gono must be
commended for recognising that crisis has developed in Zimbabwe’s money
market in general, and within the banking sector in particular.

They have prescribed several remedial measures but, despite their merit and
pending those measures being implemented and becoming effective, the crisis
is intensifying. Consequently, the economic recovery pursued since 2008 is
now being severely retarded and reversed.

A stable and effective banking sector is a prerequisite for the continued
viability of any economy. Tragically, that prerequisite is rapidly ceasing
to exist in Zimbabwe. With a few significant exceptions, over the last few
weeks the majority of Zimbabwe’s banks have had a serious insufficiency of
cash resulting in a pronounced rationing of bank notes when customers have
sought to effect withdrawals from their accounts.

The primary cause of that scarcity is that many businesses, and a majority
of the general populace, are reluctant to deposit their funds into the
banks.  That unwillingness to avail themselves of banking services is
motivated by two major concerns.  On the one hand there is a wide-ranging
concern that Zimbabwe will dispense with the prevailing multi-currency
regime, and will revert to its own currency.

The fear of those with funds is that if Zimbabwean currency is restored,
government or the RBZ will unilaterally expropriate the foreign currencies
held in the banks and compensate them with the reinstated domestic currency,
and that that domestic currency would soon become as worthless as it was in
late 2008.

Compounding those fears is wide-ranging awareness that several of Zimbabwe’s
banks are very substantially under-capitalised and risk collapse, in which
event much of any funds deposited with them would either be irrecoverably
lost or, at best, would only be partially or wholly recovered after an
extended period of time.

Those fears are intensified by recognition of many that, in consequence of
interbank lendings and transactions, even the survival of adequately
capitalised banks could well be in jeopardy as a “knock-on” effect of the
possible collapse of the under-capitalised institutions.

Yet another fear of very many is that the pursuit by government of Zimbabwe’s
foolhardy and counter-productive indigenisation policies can (and probably
will) result in changes of ownership and control of many banks to new owners
devoid of substantive knowledge and managerial expertise of financial
institutions.

As a result even fully capitalised banks could, in the future, cease to be
secure havens for depositors’ funds, and especially so as those
indigenisation policies and their probable resultant ownership changes are
deterrents to international banks and other financial institutions extending
lines of credit to Zimbabwean banks.

The magnitude of financial sector illiquidity is so great that not only are
many banks unable to service fully depositors’ cash withdrawal needs, but in
addition are failing to timeously credit clients with interbank transfers
(RTGSs).  Those businesses and other banking clients that make payments to
suppliers and other third parties by way of interbank transfers are
immediately charged for the amounts of their payments, and for service
charges thereon, but in numerous instances the intended recipients await
credits to their accounts for extended periods.

The negative economic repercussions of these banking sector ills are
gargantuan.  Manufacturers and traders are not receiving delivery of inputs
and goods until the suppliers have received the attendant interbank
transfers.  The already constrained purchasing power of consumers is further
contracted by the insufficiency of funds that they have sought to withdraw
from their banks.

As a result, trade volumes are markedly reduced, and the drop in consumer
demand is a major fuellant of inflation, which is likely to soar upwards if
the money market illiquidity is not rapidly resolved.  The belated receipt
of manufacturing inputs, and the decreases in consumer demand, are also
likely to force many manufacturers to reduce their labour forces, thereby
worsening Zimbabwe’s already high levels of unemployment.

Recognising these and attendant factors, on February 16 Biti and Gono issued
statements comprising policies to be pursued in order to restore viability
to the banking sector (and hence to the economy as a whole), in part
reaffirming previously prescribed policies as contained in RBZ’s monetary
policy statement issued in January, 2012, and partially announcing yet
further policies.  Some of the key issues addressed were:

All banks whose capitalisation was less than the RBZ prescribed minimum had
been obliged to submit recapitalisation plans to RBZ by February 14 2012,
and such recapitalisation must be wholly implemented by March 2012, failing
which banking licences would be terminated, or defaulting banks would be
obliged to merge with other banks thereby achieving consolidation and
enhancement of the capital resources.

Moreover, Biti recently stated that Zimbabwe is grossly overbanked, having
26 licenced banks (over and above 159 money-lending institutions, building
societies, and discount houses).  He said that as a matter of urgency, the
banking sector must be reconstructed to comprise a maximum of 10 banks, be
such reconstruction achieved by way of mergers of banks or by bank closures.

With effect from March 1, 2012, all banking institutions may hold no more
that 25% of their Foreign Currency Account (FCA) balances in offshore Nostro
accounts, which the banks utilise to meet their day-to-day international
payment obligations, although that ceiling of offshore holding may be
increased by the banks to 30% with effect from June 30, 2012.

The policies are commendable measures to address the intensifying banking
sector crisis, and the concomitant adverse economic repercussions, but they
are unlikely to suffice and, in particular, will not achieve the rapid
transformation of the sector desperately needs.  In order to accelerate the
recovery of the unfavourable banking environment, at least two further
actions should be rapidly and effectively pursued.  These are:

The Finance minister should forthwith draw down the unutilised balance of
IMF Special Drawing Rights (about US$150 million) which have been lying idle
in the United States for almost two years, and should utilise that drawdown
to stabilise the banking sector.

An authoritative statement should be issued by government, convincingly
reiterating the previously announced policy that Zimbabwe will not revert to
its own currency in place of the multicurrency regime until the economy is
fully stabilised, and consistently on a substantive growth path, the
earliest date for such reversion to own currency being 2014.


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Jury still out on Zim economic outlook

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:56

Reginald Sherekete
THE state of the economy in Zimbabwe remains a source of heated debate, with
authorities and analysts clashing on what the real situation on the ground
is. The different reading and analyses of the economic situation has left
many Zimbabweans wondering whether the country is on a recovery path, facing
stagnation or even decline in the short to medium-term.
While Finance minister Tendai Biti and his colleagues in government are
painting a rosy picture of the situation, analysts such as Professor Tony
Hawkins and other are sceptical about the economic outlook.

So the question is: Which direction exactly is the Zimbabwean economy
heading? Is the current growth in the economy real growth or recovery? And
how has the growth recorded in the three years’ post-dollarisation measured
against the standard of living of ordinary Zimbabweans? Is the growth
cascading down to the people?

The country is currently facing a multitude of problems mainly emanating
from the current political stalemate which has worsened the country
political risk profile, ultimately stalling foreign capital inflows
necessary to boost capacity utilisation and production in the economy.

In his 2012 budget statement, Biti projected the economy to grow by 9,4% in
2012 against a background of improved performance in sectors such as
agriculture, mining, tourism, social sectors, finance and electricity.

He said the growth would be propelled by momentum from the 2011 fiscal year
in which the economy was estimated to grow by 9,3%, with the mining and
agricultural sectors contributing mostly to this, having benefited from firm
international commodity prices.

However, analysts are not convinced by Biti’s projections. Hawkins argues a
combination of internal and external problems highlighted by the current
balance-of-payments crisis and rising vulnerabilities in different sectors
would impact on economic growth.

But Biti says the positive performance in 2012 is expected to be underpinned
by further growth in finance, expected to increase by 23%, mining 15,8%,
tourism 13,7%, agriculture 11,6%, manufacturing 6%, and transport and
communication 6%.

Analysts say the ongoing liquidity constraints in the banking and finance
sector will limit lending towards the productive sectors of the economy,
thus undermining Biti’s forecasts.

They say this would severely impact on the gross domestic product and
curtail projected growth figures.

Central Bank governor Gideon Gono has indicated the banking sector remains
“safe and sound”, notwithstanding underlying risks posed by the operating
environment, notably volatile deposits, absence of an active inter-bank
market and lack of an effective lender of last resort function, market
illiquidity, cash-based transactions and limited access to external credit
lines.

“The weak and troubled banks in the sector are few, small and of low
systemic importance. Collectively, as at 31 December 2011, these
institutions had a combined market share below 5% in terms of total assets,
deposits and loans,” Gono said recently.

But the current liquidity situation is increasing vulnerabilities within the
fragile financial services sector. Banks are currently facing serious
liquidity problems and that in turn affects lending to productive sectors of
the economy and growth. The real situation on the ground shows more banks
treading on shaky ground, having difficulties managing their liquidity
positions given the late processing of electronic transfers and caps on cash
withdrawals. Their loans-to-deposit ratios are also unsustainably high,
leaving them further exposed.

“If the situation remains unchanged, there is a great risk of failure of
more than one financial institution and because of systemic risk, the whole
sector may collapse,” said one economic analyst who preferred not to be
named.

A fortnight ago, Gono announced a series of measures in a bid to contain the
liquidity crisis but analysts are asking if they can restore stability in
the turbulent sector. Some analysts, including Industry and Trade minister
Welshman Ncube, say the measures are cosmetic and would not address the
problem.

Gono has indicated that as at February 3 2012, bank deposits had improved to
US$3,5 billion but loans remained static around US$2,8 billion, indicating
tight liquidity conditions. In this state of flux the situation is changing
fast and that position could have deteriorated.  The stock market started
the year on a turbulent note given the overhang of the indigenisation laws
which dampened confidence in the market in 2011. The economy has lost
billions due to the uncertainty created by the chaotic indigenisation
campaign.

Heightened calls for the implementation of the indigenisation policy last
week resulted in low sentiment in the markets and stocks are expected to
take a further nosedive.

As a result the projected performance of the financial sector in 2012 still
remains largely inflated given the situation on the ground and that the
sector remains clouded by many factors which can underpin the estimated 23%
growth.

Biti says the projected growth in agricultural production of 11,6% in 2012
takes into account the number of financing facilities established by
government, the banking sector, co-operating partners, seed and fertiliser
suppliers in support of the preparation for the 2011/2012 agricultural
season.

But Hawkins projects a fall in agricultural output because of lack of
preparedness and farming inputs. The rainfall situation is also a cause for
concern. Recent hailstorms in some parts of the country, which experienced
heavy rainfall, could affect the tobacco output estimated at 150 million kgs
in 2012.

Despite good rainfall in some parts of the country, the Zimbabwe Farmers
Union indicated in its weekly bulletin last week that the rest of the
country, especially the southern provinces, namely Masvingo and Matabeleland
provinces and low-lying parts of Manicaland, Midlands and Mashonaland
provinces had experienced very long dry periods which have adversely
affected crops and grazing areas.

“In most of these cases, the crops have permanently wilted and even if the
rains were to come now, most of the crops will not recover,” said the ZFU.
Biti also says mining will be a major driving force behind overall economic
growth in 2012, benefitting from further private capital injections,
international commodity prices and anticipated initiatives to minimise
electricity supply interruptions.

The sector is currently dogged by the disruptive indigenisation policy as
Indigenisation minister Saviour Kasukuwere pounces on major mining concerns
demanding they relinquish their shareholding to government or its proxies.

Kasukuwere last week issued a 14-day ultimatum to mining giants Zimplats and
Mimosa, further fuelling uncertainty on the long-term viability of the
mining sector. Partly due to these problems, Hawkins projects a stunted
performance for the mining sector in 2012.

What is clear is that the economy may be facing serious problems ahead,
derailing Biti’s plan and stalling recovery at a time when Zimbabwe needs to
sustain high levels of growth to get back to the pre-1999 levels.


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Nothing illegal about seeking regime change

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:51

Dumisani Nkomo

I WAS intrigued by comments attributed to the disappointing,
newly-reappointed Police Commissioner-General Augustine Chihuri warning
Zimbabweans to desist from North African-style uprisings which rocked the
region last year.

While Chihuri is entitled to his views in terms of the constitution and laws
of this country, he must be reminded that it was the political and
socio-economic conditions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, as well as countries
like Yemen and Syria in the Middle East, which led to popular revolts
against their leaders and governments.

It was misrule and poverty which forced people in those countriesto take to
the streets and overthrow their governments in some cases. It is not like
people in those countries are inherently rebellious as some would like us to
believe. People often revolt against leaders and governments because of
their oppressive conditions, not because they hate the leaders or
governments.

The Commissioner-General expressively quoted scripture, citing 1 Samuel
Chapter 15 v 23 in which the Bible equates rebellion to witchcraft. He
forgot to put the scripture in its proper context and further neglected to
mention Proverbs 29:2 which states that “when the righteous rule the people
rejoice but when the wicked rule the people groan.”

Chihuri conveniently forgot the account in Exodus where God heard the cry of
his people because of the oppression of the Egyptians and how God used Moses
to set his people free. In short he expressed a gross lack of appreciation
for God’s concern about injustice and oppression. Instead of a repressive
system we need a just developmental state founded upon democratic
principles, human rights and rule of law.

The people of North Africa would not have taken to the streets if their
fundamental democratic and human rights were respected. They would not have
called for the removal of their governments if their leaders allowed them
freedom of expression, assembly and association.

They would not have turned against their governments if they worked for, and
not against, their people. In Tunisia the masses would not have turned
against President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali if the he had not oppressed,
suppressed and failed to govern the country properly resulting in the
economy deteriorating and standards of living falling. It was repression,
poverty and resultant anger which drove people in those countries to the
streets.

The people of Egypt would not have taken to the streets if President Hosni
Mubarak had not turned Egypt into a personal fiefdom, modelled along the
lines of a fascist-style police state. Indeed, the people of Libya would not
have rebelled against Muammar Gaddafi if he had not reduced the country to a
personal farm were political parties and political activities were banned
and dissenters suffered brutal repression, including harassment, violence,
torture, disappearances and murder.

In short, the so-called rebellion of the people of North Africa was only a
symptom of underlying problems or a popular reaction to dictatorship,
misrule, corruption and oppression. The demonstrations were a mere reaction
by the people to how they were governed. Chihuri should not worry about the
people of Zimbabwe engaging in an orgy of riots and violence if he thinks
the country is governed properly and people are happy.

He should not worry if people can express themselves freely through the
ballot. The people of Zimbabwe expressed themselves peacefully and
democratically when they rejected the Constitutional Commission draft
constitution in 2000. They expressed themselves clearly in the 2002, 2005
and the 2008 harmonised elections which Zanu PF lost.

They also wanted to express themselves peacefully during the June 2008
presidential election run-off, but were subjected to savage brutality. Given
a chance, the people of Zimbabwe will express themselves clearly, peacefully
and democratically in the next elections.

Our leaders should desist from North African-style leadership if they do not
want North African-style uprisings. Whether or not the revolts were right or
wrong (although people have a right to free themselves from oppression like
Africans did against colonial regimes), or whether the killing of Gaddafi
was right or wrong, is another matter altogether. What is important to
understand is that the conditions in which people live force them to resort
to certain measures to free themselves. History and even current events show
this.

If the leaders of North African countries had respected the people they
governed and governed for the good of the people, they would not have been
victims of “a force more powerful” than tanks, repressive legislation and
police states. A responsible parent cannot blame a child for crying and
lashing out when he/she is hungry. Rather they should address the plight of
the hungry child than scold or intimidate him/her.

People everywhere yearn for freedom from oppression. Freedom is a universal
and fundamental right. People always fight to secure their freedom; it doesn’t
come easy and cheap. They yearn to be free to receive and impart information
as guaranteed in the constitution; they yearn for the right to associate
freely without being intimidated; they yearn for freedom of thought and
opinion without being abused or called names for daring to think and
challenge the status quo.

There is no need for governments in any part of the world, including
Zimbabwe, to be afraid of their own people. Governments should be elected by
the people for the people, not as vehicles of sectional interests or
personal aggrandisement. As long as governments govern in the interests of
the people and allow them to exercise their rights without undue
restrictions, there would be nothing to fear, except fear itself.

It must be stated that there is nothing inherently illegal, criminal or
sinful about changing a government peacefully or changing a regime through
constitutional means. Mass uprisings are a sign that all avenues of
democratic expression would have been blocked. In fact demonstrations are
part of the democratic process as  governments should allow their citizens
to express legitimate grievances and discontent. What is perhaps criminal is
the North African-style of leadership, not the reaction to it
Commissioner-General!

Nkomo is a political analyst and CEO of Habakkuk Trust and writes in his
personal capacity. Email: dumisani.nkomo@gmail.com .


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Parallels between Greece and Zimbabwe

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 17:49

Tony Hawkins

THE old adage that if something cannot work then it won’t neatly captures
the essence of the latest Greek bailout plan. Even its promoters know the
scheme is doomed, but such is the nature of eurozone politics that national
parliaments must solemnly approve the bailout knowing  fully well that
sooner rather than later, it will crash and burn.

A week after the deal was signed there is near consensus that one way or
another Greece will default and possibly leave the euro. That would enable
it to regain international competitiveness freed of restrictions of the
single currency on one hand and the high-handed, not to say bungling,
unelected Brussels bureaucracy on the other.

It makes no economic sense to expect Greece, with a current account deficit
of 8,4% of GDP, or Portugal (8,6%), Spain (3,8%) and Italy (3,5%) to compete
on a level playing field (same currency) as Germany (surplus of 5% of GDP)
and the Netherlands (7,8% surplus).

The commonsense solution is for the Greeks to take the gap, but economic
commonsense departed the eurozone scene years ago. For the past 20 years,
the eurozone has grown 1,7% annually, compared with 2,3% a year for all
industrialised countries and 2,7% for the United States. Yet those
responsible for this track record of failure are still determined to
micro-manage Greece and any other eurozone country in difficulty.

The bottom line for the eurocrats is the survival of the single currency,
regardless of the cost to the people of the uncompetitive peripheral
countries in terms of poverty, unemployment and human suffering. Ironically,
these are the very same experts who are so free with their policy advice,
telling governments in Africa, including Zimbabwe, how to eradicate the very
poverty they are busy entrenching in Southern Europe. 

The irony of this situation will not be lost on African leaders. Forced for
decades to listen to pious lectures from EU donors on human rights, good
governance and democracy, they are now watching the eurozone destroy
democracy in its peripheral states, including the very cradle of democracy
itself, Greece. None other than German Finance minister Wolfgang Schauble
admitted as much last month when he proposed that Greece should postpone its
elections as a condition for further help.

The parallels with Zimbabwe are inescapable: It is denied foreign assistance
from the EU and subjected to futile sanctions because governance here does
not meet the standards required by Brussels. Zimbabweans are punished
because Zanu PF does not allow free and fair elections, but the Greeks are
punished because they actually want a say on how their economy is
managed. EU-style democracy is selective — good for Zimbabwe, bad for
Greece. 

Brussels under strict German supervision, with hangers-on from the IMF, will
dictate fiscal policy not just in Greece but elsewhere in the Eurozone.
Voters will not be free to choose whether they want austerity or growth,
whether they prefer reduced social spending and lower pensions to higher
taxes. Those decisions will be made in Berlin and Brussels by the champions
of this new “choiceless democracy”. 

Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Munchau put it right when he wrote last
week: “We are at a point where success (of the bailout) is no longer
compatible with democracy.” What matters is not the wellbeing of the peoples
of Southern Europe, but what suits Brussels, the euro and the new German
economic empire.

Ultimately, the euro crunch will come, not from excessive debt levels in the
periphery as Germany insists, but because the pain of “internal
devaluation” — lower wages and pensions, longer working lives, high and
sustained unemployment, higher taxes and lower state spending — will spark a
voter backlash or worse. Those who can compete using a “hard” euro as their
currency — the Germans, Dutch, Belgium, Austria, Finland and possibly France
and Ireland — will stay in an increasingly centralised, markets-hostile,
sluggish-growth economy. The others will have to go it alone or set up their
own “soft” euro.

Yet resolving the single currency crisis — a bad idea that went wrong — is
no more than a sideshow, albeit an important one. Historian Andrew Roberts
put the EU’s decline into context last month when he wrote: “Birth rates,
defence expenditures, bond prices, welfare spending versus wealth creation;
everything that historians look to in order to gauge the health of empires
suggests that Europe’s fire has gone out”.

The EU’s breathtaking hypocrisy over democracy aside, two lessons of the
eurozone crisis are potentially important for Zimbabwe. This country’s
dependence on foreign aid is set to grow at precisely the time when the
global aid industry is headed for the rocks. Bailing out their own in Europe
and coming to terms with the home-made debt crisis in the US will force
donors to cut aid budgets over the next decade. This penny has still to
drop. The donors are not the players they think they are. Their
disbursements are swamped by private sector flows not to mention diasporan
remittances.  The Dfids, USAids, and eurocrats seem slow to grasp the simply
reality that their taxpayers have wearied of funding their endless round of
seminars, workshops and pretentious reports that no-one reads and that add
no value. That party is over and not before time.

The second lesson is for Sadc, which must now abandon its proposed monetary
union and single currency after 2018.  If the Europeans cannot make a single
currency work — and they cannot — what chance is there for 14 Sadc states
with very different economic structures?

While in 2012 this issue may sound terribly arcane for dollarised Zimbabwe,
in fact it has very real significance. Zimbabwe is already part of a single
currency zone.  Peripheral eurozone countries are in economic distress
because they cannot compete within a single currency zone. Germany, the
Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and France all rank in the top 20 of the World
Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness index, but Greece is 90th, Spain
36th, Italy 43rd and Portugal 45th. For how long can two such disparate
groups share the same currency?

Zimbabwe ranks 132 but the currency we use is that of a country ranked
fifth. How sustainable is that? So long as commodity prices boom, Zimbabwe
has fresh natural resources to exploit (diamonds) and the US devalues the
dollar we might get by despite such a massive productivity gap, but that
cannot continue for very long.

Sadly politicians and labour unions seem not to understand this. They talk
of relating wages and salaries to some spurious regional average or to some
arbitrarily-chosen poverty line. Even worse, some politicians believe that
civil service wages should be determined by the country’s diamond revenue!
In such a world of make-believe economics, there is no place for
productivity and competitiveness. Although per capita incomes (US$8 800 a
year) in Botswana or South Africa (US$8 300) are 11 times greater than here,
the politicians believe school teachers or policemen in Zimbabwe can and
should be paid a Batswana or South African wage. Where is the logic in that?

Output per head is a good a measure of macro-productivity as there is, which
means that wages rise with income per head. Moreover, the speed at which
that indicator improves sets the ceiling for wage awards. If per capita
incomes rise 7% then average wages ought to increase no faster.

The limited and unreliable data that we have suggest that since 2009 average
wages have risen much faster than productivity in Zimbabwe. Given where we
have come from it is no surprise that we should be trying to play catch-up,
but in a fixed exchange-rate dollar currency zone this is unsustainable over
the medium term. Indeed, it is the road to Athens.

Professor Hawkins teaches Economics at the Graduate School of Management at
the University of Zimbabwe. 


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Candid Comment: 60% capacity utilisation? My foot!

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/

Thursday, 01 March 2012 18:23

Itai Masuku

JUST yesterday this writer went for a CT scan of the head (probably to see
if there is any brain in there) at a local clinic. The last time he had done
so was some 16 or so years ago after he had tried to be a Michael Schumacher
on the highway. What was surprising was how exactly the same machinery in
use 16 years ago is still in use now.

One couldn’t help wondering whether there were no later technologies. It
turned out there was and this was the MRI scan. The author had to be sent
for MRIs instead as the CT wasn’t going to be effective on him for certain
reasons (a polite way of saying “sorry we don’t see anything in there”).

One can draw parallels from this and apply that to the local manufacturing
sector. It is pleasing to note that companies are reporting getting back
into the black in the current earnings season. However, which report have
you read where there has been investment in new technology? Most of the
recapitalisation exercises appear to have been on just clearing debt and
securing working capital, with little or no effort towards retooling.

Isn’t it that they are using the same old equipment that dates back to the
90s, 80s, 70s or even 60s and beyond? The author once worked for a newspaper
that similarly had antiquated equipment in the form of an old Heidelberg
printing press. When a major breakdown occurred and replacement parts had to
be obtained, the company faxed Germany, where the machine had been made
decades earlier.

The quick response was: “You mean such a machine still exists?” It appears
that this is still the same case with most of our manufacturing companies.
In the case of mining, we only see new equipment crossing our borders to
Zambia. Yet, with that kind of situation, we continue to hear fantastic
figures of the manufacturing reaching 60% and above capacity utilisation.

Really? With obsolete machinery?  Even if the machinery was still working
beyond its economic life, surely it can’t be as efficient as more modern
offerings? And isn’t it the main reason why our manufacturers are losing out
on competitiveness and market share to foreign products?

Efficiency by nature should result in better quality products produced at a
lower price. Take Cairns for example, one analyst correctly pointed out that
it was cheaper for the company to get rid of its old assets and invest in
newer technology at a much cheaper price. Mutare Board and Paper Mills came
to terms with such reality and disposed off units that were dragging it
behind. The list goes on.

One of our readers, Chris Veremu, describes the 57% capacity utilisation
figure as nonsensical. “If this were not a serious issue it would be the
stuff that made (ZTV comic character) Gringo famous!,” he says. “Our
politicians on both sides of the political divide know that this is nonsense
but they are happy to run with it as it helps them look at themselves in the
mirror without blushing...How do you achieve this growth when the same
industry is closing left right and centre? Liquidity is almost nil...one
could go on.”

We rest our case, but not before underlining Zimbabwean companies need new
technologies and methods of production to be competitive and viable. Using
archaic machinery and technology will undercut delay, or hold back economic
recovery.


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Statement On The Expulsion Of Mr Ephraim Tapa From Zimbabwe We Can

There is no question that those of us fortunate enough to hold positions of
public trust must be held to a high standard befitting the privilege of
representing the people. On 10 February 2012 the National Executive
Committee of the Zimbabwe We Can (ZWC) met in Surberton, London, in a
follow-up extra-ordinary session to an earlier emergency meeting held on in
Watford to deliberate on the serious allegations levelled against the then
President Ephraim Tapa concerning his leadership at ROHR Zimbabwe.

At the Watford meeting, Mr Tapa had given a detailed report to the Executive
in which he claimed to have founded ROHR Zimbabwe himself. He categorically
denied media reports of the allegations levelled against him as spurious and
speculative and remained adamant that he was not under any form of
investigation by any authorities. Tapa denied the validity of the
allegations and insisted there was no evidence to link him with any
wrong-doing as a leader.

At the follow-up Suberton meeting of 10 February 2012, which Tapa did not
attend, the Executive sat to hear evidence from two members of ROHR
Zimbabwe, Mr Paradzai Mapfumo (Secretary General) and Mr Panyika Karimanzira
(Information and Publicity). The Executive were baffled by the depth and
content of the detailed primary evidence of deception, manipulation, malice,
financial irregularities and undemocratic tendencies provided and presented
by the two men from ROHR Zimbabwe, including proof that Tapa was under
investigations by the British Police (Case Number provided). The Executive
went to extra-ordinary lengths to conduct a full, fair and thorough review
of all relevant facts, evidence, rules and procedures, and unanimously
agreed that Mr Tapa’s position as President of the ZWC had become untenable.
Accordingly the Executive resolved to expel Mr Tapa from the Presidency of
the Movement. Tapa was also expelled from membership of the Movement
forthwith. This information was officially communicated to Mr Tapa soon
after the Executive meeting.

The Executive expressly resolved that Tapa’s expulsion from the ZWC was
imperative considering the cumulative effects of his undemocratic tendencies
over time, coupled with the gross unethical and unprofessional conduct
implied by the evidence that was unearthed at the meeting. The Executive
stood to their responsibility and resolve to protect the soul and good image
of our organisation and demonstrated that the ZWC and the safety of its
membership are more important than leadership positions. We reject to be
driven by cheque-book politics and undemocratic autocratic means by those
who want to lead by hook and crook. These elements will stop at nothing to
impose themselves as leaders even if it means using fraudulent means to
achieve their barbaric cause. We ascribe to true authority that is born from
respect for the good character and trustworthiness of the person who leads.
A leader needs to be trusted and be known to live their exemplary life with
honesty and integrity. Anything short of this among the ZWC leadership will
meet with the justice that it deserves!

The ZWC faces many challenges ahead. We will meet those challenges head on,
deliver the change that the membership demand, and give our organisation the
results it deserves. As part of the way forward the Executive unanimously
voted Mr Onias Moyo as new President of the Zimbabwe We Can. We salute the
membership of ZWC for their solidarity with the Executive and their
unqualified unequivocal and unwavering support they have shown to date. All
of us are partakers in the building up of the ZWC in order to firmly stand
for the rights of all Zimbabweans everywhere. We are all full participants
in the struggle for change and TOGETHER WE CAN!!!

ILIZWE NGABANTU!!! NYIKA VANHU!!! ZIMBABWE YES WE CAN!!!

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