Back Robert Mugabe or face war, army tells white farmers

The Telegraph

By Peta Thornycroft, in Harare
Last Updated: 12:45AM BST 23/05/2008
Zimbabwe's army has threatened to evict the country's remaining white
farmers if a single vote is cast for Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition
leader, in polling stations on their land.
The final round of the presidential election will take place on June 27 and
Robert Mugabe's regime is trying to guarantee his victory with a violent
crackdown on opponents.

At least 42 people have been murdered and thousands assaulted since Mr
Tsvangirai defeated Mr Mugabe in the first round on March 29, although he
fell short of the 50 per cent threshold needed to avoid a run-off.

Five landowners from two different districts were called to a meeting last
week by a lieutenant colonel in the army, whose name is known to The Daily
Telegraph. He was accompanied by three senior officials from Mr Mugabe's
Zanu-PF party.

During the 90-minute meeting the colonel told the farmers: "I do not accept
failure, and Mugabe has to win. If he doesn't win we will go back to war.
Tsvangirai and the MDC [Movement for Democratic Change] will never rule
Zimbabwe. If there is one MDC vote on your farm, there will be war."
The colonel, who is in his early 40s and fought in Zimbabwe's military
interventions in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, told the
farmers to ensure that Mr Tsvangirai received no votes on their land.

A farmer who attended the meeting, and who spoke on condition of anonymity,
described how Mr Mugabe's re-election campaign was operating in his
district.

He said ''command centres" had been established in old homesteads once
occupied by white farmers or in deserted schools.

These were manned by groups of about 10 people, usually low-ranking Zanu-PF
officials and occasionally veterans of the war against white rule of the
1970s.

They roamed the countryside and captured MDC supporters, who they called
"suspects".

These people were "arrested" and taken to the command centre where they were
beaten and tortured.

The victims were made to chant: "Vote for Mugabe – vote for peace. Vote for
the MDC – vote for war."

The farmer said: "We were told, 'there will be no more beatings unless you
are MDC'."

The army is in control of the operation. Major-General Nicholas Dube, from
defence headquarters in Harare, used soldiers and army vehicles to evict
Paul Stidolph, 65, a white farmer, two weeks ago.

''I imagine that will happen to all of us, as at least my wife and I are
going to vote for Tsvangirai on our farm on June 27," said the farmer.

Zimbabwe opposition leader to head home

Fox News

Thursday, May 22, 2008

By DONNA BRYSON, Associated Press Writer

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa —  Zimbabwean opposition leader said Thursday he
will return home this weekend despite fears of a possible assassination
attempt.

"I am going home .... Saturday," Morgan Tsvangirai told a crowd of
Zimbabweans seeking protection at a Johannesburg police station after a wave
of anti-foreigner attacks in South Africa.

Tsvangirai faces a runoff election against President Robert Mugabe June 27.
He won the first round of voting at the end of March but not by an absolute
majority.

He has spent most of the time since then outside the country. He planned to
return to Zimbabwe last Saturday but delayed the trip after his Movement for
Democratic Change said there was a plot to assassinate him.

Independent human rights groups say opposition supporters have been targeted
in a campaign of violence aimed at ensuring 84-year-old Mugabe wins the
presidential runoff.

The economic and political crisis in Zimbabwe has led to an exodus from the
country. More than 3 million Zimbabweans are believed to be in neighboring
South Africa.

Resentment that foreigners are competing for scarce jobs and houses has led
to a wave of anti-foreigner attacks in South Africa in the past 10 days.
Zimbabweans have born the brunt.

Tsvangirai told a crown of Zimbabweans outside the police station in the
Alexandra township, where the violence started, that Zimbabwe's crisis had
spilled over into South Africa.
"I am hoping that we are able to solve our crisis back home," he said.

Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

International Crisis Group

Africa Briefing N°51
21 May 2008

OVERVIEW

The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe’s political
landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran
second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the
polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their
authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing
democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the
presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown.
Zimbabwe is in constitution­al limbo: it has no elected president or legally
con­sti­tu­ted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and
the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African
leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in
to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by
facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government
that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.

While there is wide agreement in ZANU-PF that its survival now depends on
Mugabe’s immediate exit, influential hardliners in the party and military
will not simply hand over power to the MDC. They and Mugabe likely
manipulated the presidential results to show a run-off was necessary and
have put in place a strategy to retain power through force. Since the
elections, there has been a sharp increase in state-sponsored violence, as
the security services and ZANU-PF militia have unleashed a campaign of
intimidation, torture and murder against opposition activists, journalists,
polling agents, public servants, civic leaders and ordinary citizens
suspected of voting for the MDC. The opposi­tion says that at least 43 of
its members have been killed and thousands displaced in the violence.
Zimbabwe’s transition to democracy is being held hostage.

If Mugabe manages to cling to the presidency through political repression
and manipulation, he will face a hostile parliament, growing public
discontent, mount­ing international pressure and increased isolation. The
consequences of his staying in office would be catastrophic, not least that
the economic decline would intensify, with more Zimbabweans fleeing across
borders, while inflation, unemployment and the resulting massive suffering
increase.

There has been a chorus of condemnation from West­ern leaders and
international and African civil society over the withholding of the results
and the rising violence. The UN Security Council discussed Zimbabwe, while
the African Union (AU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC)
called for release of the results and criticised the violence. However,
South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki has continued to shield Mugabe, not
backing away from his 12 April statement that there was no crisis in the
country. Other African leaders, led by SADC Chairman Levy Mwanawasa and AU
Chairman Jikaya Kikwete, seem prepared to take a more robust line. Since the
impact of outspoken, Western-driven diplomacy is likely to be limited,
African-led mediation, with concerted, wider international backing, gives
the best chance for a peace­ful and definitive resolution to the crisis.

President Mbeki negotiated SADC-backed talks be­tween ZANU-PF and the MDC
through January 2008, and he remains the regionally appointed mediator. But
his reluctance to criticise Mugabe or condemn the escalating violence has
badly undermined his credibility, particularly in the eyes of the
opposition. Further, his inability to turn a ZANU-PF/MDC agreement in
September 2007 into a lasting accord to resolve the crisis casts doubts upon
his effectiveness in the current environment. Nonetheless, South Africa
cannot simply be sidelined. A formula is needed that broadens the South
African-led SADC mediation, adding strong accountability and oversight
measures.

That broadened mediation, supported by additional international actors,
should focus on two immediate objec­tives, which are not mutually exclusive,
as the end objective of each should be some form of gov­ern­ment of national
unity, under MDC leadership:

  a.. A negotiated settlement on a Tsvangirai-led transi­tional government.
The current levels of violence and intimidation preclude the possibility of
holding a credible run-off. The holding of a run-off by the Mugabe camp is a
ploy to stay in power, and it is highly unlikely that Mugabe would accept
the conditions for a free and fair run-off in which he would be
humiliatingly defeated. As ZANU-PF prepares for a second election, violence
is likely to escalate, prolonging the suffering of Zimbabwe’s people. For
this reason, the first objective of the mediation should be to secure a
political agreement between the MDC and ZANU-PF that avoids the need for a
run-off and the accompanying risks of even greater violence. A negotiated
settlement could establish a Tsvangirai-led transitional government with
substantial participation by ZANU-PF stalwarts to implement agreed upon
constitutional reforms and hold free and fair elections under an agreed
timeframe.
Senior military commanders strongly opposed to the MDC have been
instrumental in preventing a demo­cratic transition following the 29 March
election, and there is growing risk of a coup either before a run-off (in a
pre-emptive move to deny Tsvangirai victory) or after a Tsvangirai win.
Indeed, this is one reason why priority should be given to a negotiated
settlement ahead of a run-off. The mediation must accordingly address the
loyalty of the security services as a priority, including the handover of
military power in a transi­tional government arrangement.

Zimbabwe will need a transitional justice mechanism at some stage to come to
terms fully with and move beyond its long nightmare. Both national
recon­ci­li­a­tion and the practical necessities of pulling the country out
of its immediate crisis require, however, that the agreement on a
transitional government contain guarantees for present political leaders and
the security forces. These would extend to Mugabe himself, but it is
difficult to see him having any formal role in the new political
dispensation. The agreement will need to be complemented by the regional and
wider international community’s strong commitment to provide resources for
reconstruction and recovery.

  a.. A credible run-off. Even as it works to facilitate a negotiated
settlement on a transitional government, SADC mediators must work with
ZANU-PF and the MDC to delineate the basic requirements for a credible
run-off in the event the effort fails. Urgent steps would be needed to
guarantee a free and fair vote – even one in conditions as imperfect as for
the 29 March election. These include immediate cessation of violence and
intimidation; strong monitoring and organisational roles for SADC, the AU
and the UN; and massive deployment no later than roughly a month before the
poll of independent national and international observers, who must remain on
the ground until the results are announced. As with negotiations for a
transitional government, the mediation would need to address the modalities
for ensuring military loyalty to a new civilian government. Failure to do so
would risk a Tsvangirai victory leading to a military coup or martial law,
and the security services splitting along factional lines.
On 16 May, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announced that the
run-off will take place on 27 June. This means that the AU and SADC must
start preparing immediately to dispatch large election observation missions
by no later than 1 June.

In the event that a run-off is held and Tsvangirai wins, he should assume
the presidency but move to form a unity government for at least the initial
period of his term. While his party controls parliament, ZANU-PF has a near
stranglehold over the security sector and state institutions and has a
strong influence over eco­no­mic and social life. Tsvangirai and the MDC
will need to include ZANU-PF in their government if they are to govern
effectively.

In short, with or without a run-off, third-party African-led negotiations
are essential to help gain acceptance from the military for a handover of
power and establish the parameters for a transitional or unity government.
Some MDC supporters may consider the compromises involved an affront to
democracy, but they are necessary if the country’s democracy is to be stable
and secure.

If Mugabe succeeds in retaining power by winning an election through fraud
and/or intimidation, appropriate regional and other international action
must be taken to deal with what would be a rogue regime. Examples of such
action would be declaring his government illegitimate; tightening existing
targeted sanctions on known hardliners; and establishing a Security Council
commission of inquiry to investigate reports of torture, murder and
widespread violations of human rights and to recommend appropriate
accountability mechanisms, perhaps including referral to international legal
authorities.

Pretoria/Brussels, 21 May 2008

A constitution in tatters

IOL

    May 23 2008 at 09:28AM

President Robert Mugabe remains in untrammelled power until the
presidential run-off election, which is now due on June 27. And if that
run-off happens and he wins it, he will retain most of his power for the
next five years, even though parliament will be controlled by the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Such are the powers of the presidency in Zimbabwe's mutilated
constitution.

Mugabe came second to the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai in the March 29
presidential election.

But because Tsvangirai did not win an outright majority of more than
50 percent - at least not officially - he has to face Mugabe again in a
run-off election.

Mugabe is governing until then without legislative control, because
the Zanu-PF-dominated Parliament was dissolved before the March 29 elections
and the new MDC-dominated Parliament will not be constituted until a
president has been duly elected.

When the results of the run-off election are released, the new
president must be sworn into office by the chief justice within 48 hours.

The present cabinet, which Mugabe appointed at the last general
election in 2005, also stays in office until the new president is sworn in.

If Mugabe wins the run-off, he can appoint a wholly Zanu-PF cabinet,
even though it will be from the minority party in the House of Assembly.

In theory having a Zanu-PF president and an MDC-controlled parliament
could be unworkable.

But, in reality, there is only one task Mugabe needs parliament for,
and that is to pass the budget.

So his minister of finance would write the budget and present it to
parliament. The majority party, the MDC, could presumably re-write it and
then pass its version.

But Mugabe could in turn refuse to sign it and it would sit in limbo
for six months.

The MDC could then try and persuade enough Zanu-PF MPs to vote with
it, to attain the two thirds majority which the constitution requires for
Parliament to override the presidential veto.

But Mugabe could, if he wants, just avoid the legislative budget
process altogether.

He could raise money to pay the civil service via central bank
governor Gideon Gono, who continually bypasses the constitution to ensure
Zanu-PF and Mugabe retain control.

Gono began to take over the responsibilities of the ministry of
finance when he was appointed by Mugabe in late 2003.

He does what he likes, when he likes, with public money, from buying
tractors for Zanu-PF, to approving arms from China.

If all else failed, Mugabe could simply overrule parliament any time
he wanted to, using the Presidential Powers Temporary Measures Act, which
allows him to rule by decree for six months at a time.

He appoints the judges, the overwhelming majority of whom are not only
widely seen by the legal fraternity as incompetent but also respect (or
fear) Mugabe more than they respect the law.

He would also appoint the attorney-general, a powerful official.

On matters other than the budget, Mugabe will be able to use the
Senate to good effect.

On March 29, the MDC and Zanu-PF each won 30 senate seats and 18
traditional leaders - likely to be sympathetic to Mugabe - have already been
appointed.

Before the elections, the electoral laws were amended to remove 30
presidential appointees from parliament (the lower house, or assembly).

But these were then effectively transferred to the Senate, the upper
house.

If he wins the run-off, Mugabe would also appoint 10 provincial
governors who would take ex-officio seats in Senate, alongside five other
presidential appointees.

The Senate may delay all legislation - except the budget - for 90
days, and when that period expires, Mugabe can anyway then refuse to sign
any bill.

But, of course, if Morgan Tsvangirai wins the run-off, he will inherit
all these powers from Mugabe and the boot will be very firmly on the other
foot.

Hence the importance of being president.

If he won, Tsvangirai would control the Senate as he would appoint the
provincial governors and enough chiefs would probably fall in line to
prevent the Senate from blocking his legislation.

His first job would then be to appoint a cabinet and draft a budget.

He would not be able to change the present constitution without a
two-thirds majority, for which he would need Zanu-PF help.

He would have the power to re-appoint or sack and replace the service
chiefs, but would very likely negotiate this very carefully for fear of
facing a mutiny.

These are just some of the scenarios in Zimbabe's unpredictable
future.

Another is that ahead of the run-off Mugabe might win back parliament
with the help of the first Electoral Court with its 22 new judges, mostly
Mugabe loyalists, who will hear 53 challenges from Zanu-PF and 52 from the
MDC to the March 29 parliamentary elections.

These cases would not prevent elected MPs and senators from taking
their seats, but they could eventually reverse the MDC's parliamentary
victory.

On the face of it, Tsvangirai should win the run-off election.

He scored 115 832 votes more than Mugabe on March 29.

Running on an anti-Mugabe ticket, former Zanu-PF politburo member and
finance minister Simba Makoni won 207 470 votes, mostly in two rural
Matabeleland provinces, from supporters of the smaller MDC party, (the MDC
split in 2005) led by Arthur Mutumbara.

Now Mutumbara's activists say the Makoni alliance was a mistake and
they only went for it because their bid for reunification was rejected by
Tsvangirai.

These MPs say they would not only ensure all Matabeleland votes for
Tsvangirai, but will re-activate many more MDC supporters who stayed away on
March 29 muddled by the Makoni factor.

Those votes should give Morgan Tsvangirai at least 323 392 votes more
than Mugabe, or about 56% of the vote.

But will Zanu-PF's terror campaign frighten off enough voters to
enable Mugabe to beat Tsvangirai?

Will the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which
appointed President Mbeki in March 2007 to mediate Zanu-PF-MDC negotiations,
properly fulfil its mandate by ensuring a peaceful and fair run-off
election?

It doesn't look hopeful at present.

That is why many analysts and observers are calling for some sort of
transitional power-sharing arrangement between Zanu-PF and the MDC to
negotiate conditions for a peaceful and fair election.

But the likelihood of that happening fades with each day.

The persistent problem that bedevils that option is who would be top
dog in a power-sharing administration?

It is impossible to imagine Mugabe conceding supremacy to his hated
rival Tsvangirai.

Likewise Tsvangirai has said that he is prepared to consider such a
deal - but not if Mugabe remained in charge.

So Zimbabwe's political future looks ever more uncertain as the
political violence continues unabated and warnings of impending civil war
grow louder.

This article was originally published on page 19 of The Star on May
23, 2008

Tsvangirai's plea

IOL

    May 23 2008 at 09:30AM

By Lebogang Seale

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai has made
a plea to Zimbabweans in South Africa to go back home to help him solve the
crisis their country faces.

"I am going home tomorrow (Friday) to try and solve this problem. I am
hoping that all of you can join me back," he said, addressing hundreds of
Zimbabweans displaced by the xenophobic violence at the Alexandra police
station yesterday.

Tvsangirai, who delayed his return to Zimbabwe for the June 27 run-off
election citing fears of an assassination plot, reminded the refugees that
the cause of their misery in South Africa was the political crisis in their
country.

"There is no reason why brothers should turn against each other...I am
hoping our South African brothers can be more tolerant so that we may live
side by side," he said.

He thanked the South African government, the ANC and the Nelson
Mandela Foundation for support during the attacks.

Although most of the immigrants said they were keen to return home,
they raised their safety concerns because of the widely reported harassment
at the hands of President Robert Mugabe's army.

Earlier, the sombre atmosphere which had pervaded the police station
seemed to have suddenly transformed into a cheerful mood. Immigrants chanted
revolutionary songs and slogans and ululated in anticipation of the MDC
leader's visit.

But the emotions seemed to dip when Tvsangirai left for Reiger Park,
in Germiston, to speak to other Zimbabweans at the Ramaphosa informal
settlement.

This article was originally published on page 3 of The Mercury on May
23, 2008

Death of a Zimbabwean activist

15:12 GMT, Friday, 23 May 2008 16:12 UK

The body of Tonderai Ndira was found this week, the 43rd Zimbabwean opposition activist to die in violence since elections in March. Journalist Farai Sevenzo looks back at his life and the circumstances leading up to his murder. It is clear that the change we were waiting for is here. If we do not get it, the people must rise up and fight for their victory Tonderai Ndira Tonderai Ndira lived in the desperately poor township of Mabvuku and Tafara, east of Harare. He was no stranger to the Zimbabwean police and at one stage had 38 charges levelled against him, ranging from "political nuisance" to attempted murder. He was one of a group of young men and women, barely in their thirties, who formed the backbone of the opposition's ranks. Theirs was the thankless and arduous task of mobilising moribund, disillusioned and tired folk to believe in this new concept called change and to sign up to the messages of the eight-year-old opposition - the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). On election day, 29 March, the tall and charismatic Ndira was hanging around by what passes for shops in his sewage-ridden constituency, where electricity is erratic and where cholera has already claimed lives in the last 12 months. No presidential candidate won the first round of voting outright I asked him what he felt that day would bring, and if, given the history of elections in this country, the day would make any difference. "It is clear that the change we were waiting for is here. If we do not get it, the people must rise up and fight for their victory," he said. Rising up and fighting for victory pits one against the awesome strength of the security machinery the state has at its disposal. That is an undisputed fact in the history of this country's opposition. It is an impossible task. Beyond politics In the weeks following polling day, a campaign of intimidation was unfurled which largely affected opposition people rather than ruling party folk. He was campaigning for things like better streets, more rubbish collections, healthy water supplies ZimRights official Huts and houses were torched on both sides of the political divide; images of the beaten and tortured were wired around the world, and diplomats based in Harare collected eyewitness accounts of the horrors being unleashed in the countryside by people variously described as war veterans, militias or soldiers. It was with this background that Tonderai Ndira continued to lend his leadership to the idea of democratic change, and his activism went beyond the politics of the MDC. An official from human rights organisation ZimRights, who declined to be named, outlined what Ndira meant to civic society in and around Harare. "I knew him personally, he was a youth activist who went around the country holding workshops and teaching people their rights. "He was very active in the Combined Harare Residents Association - campaigning for things like better streets, more rubbish collections, healthy water supplies. "And so he became a target for the Zanu-PF, because they are targeting active members." And why would such people become targets of the ruling party? "They know that if people like Ndira are removed, there will be less likelihood of an uprising." Disappearances Ordinarily it was a mission to find Ndira. Ndira would sometimes disappear for days on end He would venture into the centre of town for the odd demonstration and then disappear for days on end. His wife and three young children became used to the idea of him coming home after weeks away because a healthy sense of paranoia was needed to avoid spurious charges and lengthy stays in remand prison. But on Tuesday 13 May, according to his friends and eyewitnesses, Ndira came home and slept the sleep of the exhausted in Mabvuku township. At around 0645, a pick-up truck packed with 10 men arrived on his narrow street and drove past his house, stopping at the neighbours. The 10 men were armed with revolvers and AK-47s - some of them wore masks. The neighbour's child duly told them the right address and they reversed, disembarked and told Ndira's wife they were looking for her husband. The presence of so many armed men frightened her into calling out his name and announcing that there were people there to see him. He answered with a voice drunk with sleep and asked her to tell them to come by later, as he needed his rest. We are like chickens waiting for the knife to reach our throats Tonderai Ndira's brother Cosmas He was abducted in his underwear, in front of his young children as they were heading to school and beaten into the truck until he was bleeding. In the ensuing week, his family and friends desperately tried to locate him. The omens were not good, several activists had been found dead and funerals were happening throughout the city and the rural areas - all connected to Zimbabwe's protracted political impasse. On Wednesday, the MDC went to claim two more bodies from Harare's Parirenyatwa Hospital morgue. Party officials were told by the mortician there was another body that had not been claimed. Unrecognisable This new body was badly decomposed; a pair of bloody shorts was plastered to a face clearly broken and shattered. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has not been in Zimbabwe for over a month "We only knew it was my brother by his distinctive ring, his bangles, and his unmistakeable height," said Cosmas Ndira, as family and friends filled his small home to mourn his passing before his funeral, which is yet to be finalised. "His jaw was shattered, his knuckles broken, a bullet hole below his heart, many many stab wounds and a large hole at the back of his head which seemed to have been caused by a hammer." Jimmy Chidakwa, a colleague and fellow activist, struggled to contain his anger both at the assassins and his party's leadership. "They are cowards, all of them. Ten men to take down one unarmed man. "And where are our leaders? Out of the country." I know so many people now too frightened to vote with their hearts come the run-off Activist Jimmy Chidakwa Cosmas chipped in: "Yes, we are like chickens waiting for the knife to reach our throats. "Given his position in the party, my brother should have had more protection. "I know so many people now too frightened to vote with their hearts come the run-off." Unlike the opposition leadership, who are not here and have been at pains to tell the world of diplomatic efforts under way as they travel - to Botswana, South Africa, Kenya, the UN headquarters in New York - the foot soldiers like Tonderai Ndira remained on the ground, visiting the injured, co-ordinating relief efforts to the displaced. The opposition may yet feel the full force of the loss of such urban activists in the weeks to come as the country heads for the presidential run-off on 27 June.

More Arrests of Opposition Activists in Zimbabwe 

The not-so-diplomatic ambassador to Zimbabwe

Email Picture

Themba Hadebe / Associated Press

Zimbabwe accuses the U.S. diplomat James McGee, right, of interfering in the nation's internal affairs. Also shown, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Ambassador Jendayi Frazer, center, and ambassador to South Africa Eric M. Bost, left, during a media briefing in Pretoria, South Africa.

James McGee eschews the low-key approach favored by most envoys. He has turned up the pressure on the government while exposing political violence. The regime has retaliated.

By Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
May 23, 2008

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA -- To Zimbabwe's government, James McGee is the undiplomatic diplomat.

McGee, the U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe for the last six months, has eschewed the tactful, almost invisible role that envoys often take. With foreign journalists largely blocked from covering events in the African nation, McGee and other Western diplomats have adopted an outspoken posture, exposing political violence and ratcheting up international pressure on the regime.

 

In turn, McGee has been savagely scolded in the state media, reprimanded by the government, harassed by police during a fact-finding mission and had a staff member threatened with assault. Zimbabwean officials accuse him of breaking the Vienna Convention on diplomats, interfering in its internal affairs and making politically charged and inflammatory comments.

Not that the government's adversaries have been immune from McGee's blunt criticisms. As opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai stayed in neighboring South Africa while his supporters back home were being beaten and harassed, McGee said he should be in Zimbabwe despite reports of a plot to assassinate him.

McGee, a thrice-decorated Vietnam veteran, traveled with diplomats from Britain, the Netherlands, Japan and Tanzania last week to a suspected torture center in the countryside where government opponents are alleged to have been interrogated and beaten. The previous week he and others visited Avenues Clinic in the capital, Harare, crowded with victims of the regime's violence against opposition activists and supporters.

McGee appears to have gotten under President Robert Mugabe's skin as much as his predecessor, Christopher Dell, who so outraged the regime that the pro-government Herald ran a front-page headline, "Mugabe to Dell: Go to Hell," which the envoy later framed. Dell was put under 24-hour surveillance, according to the Herald.

The day after McGee's fact-finding mission to the detention facility, during which police blocked his convoy for an hour and threatened to beat a member of his staff, the Herald prominently ran a letter describing the diplomat as a "political activist for the wrong cause" sent to "do Washington's dirty work in Zimbabwe."

Several days later, another Herald article said of the ambassador, who is African American: "Contrary to his delusions, McGee is not fighting for the democratization of Zimbabwe but is just a big player in the Uncle Tom role long conceived by America."

McGee dismissed the Herald criticisms, saying the paper was "nothing more than an instrument for vituperative and erroneous information."

His missions have played an important part in independently confirming the level of political violence after disputed elections in March, as well as intensifying diplomatic pressure on a regime that analysts and diplomats see as determined to cling to power. The ruling party lost control of parliament in the elections and Mugabe faces a runoff with Tsvangirai for the presidency, expected late next month.

McGee said there was conclusive "damning" evidence that the camp he visited with diplomats was an interrogation center, with small cells where people had been imprisoned overnight or longer. Though the cells were empty during the visit, McGee and his colleagues saw four books in which prisoners' names were logged.

"These notebooks contained some pretty damning evidence," McGee said in a telephone interview. "They had the names of the people. They had the interrogation methods used on these people. It said they were undergoing beatings.

"There were the names of the people they were looking for to interrogate. They were looking for a village head man. He's in hiding now. The book said, 'We want to find him and interrogate him because he didn't stop his people from voting for the MDC,' " he said, referring to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

During his visit to the Avenues Clinic he met a woman in her 80s who said she had been hit on the head with an ax by ruling party supporters because her grandchildren were associated with the MDC.

"The evidence in the hospital was even more damning," McGee said. "We had some horrific pictures of people who were horrendously beaten for political purposes, people who were beaten to within an inch of their life.

"This type of political violence just has to stop. It is getting out of control, and until it stops I don't think we need to talk about anything else in this country," he said.

McGee said that when he presented his credentials to Mugabe in November, the president invited him to travel around the country and see things for himself. "He said, 'If you find that things are bad, come back and report them to me.' "

The ambassador said his attempts to present the evidence from the fact-finding mission to Mugabe were ignored.

Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi recently told journalists in Harare that McGee was called in and reprimanded for making statements the government said were supportive of the MDC.

"This was clear interference in Zimbabwe's domestic affairs and in violation of the protocols governing diplomatic relations between states," Mumbengegwi said.

McGee said he and other Western diplomats made a point of inviting African envoys to fact-finding missions and similar events. Six Southern African diplomats had attended a function at his home where a 13-minute film on the violence was aired. He said there was no breach of the diplomatic rules.

"I and my colleagues in the diplomatic community talk about this often," he said. "How far can we go? We determine it according to the established rules and the Vienna Convention. We will stay within the boundaries of diplomatic behavior.

"We don't become involved in internal politics of a government, but that doesn't mean people can be beaten without us trying to figure out what's going on."

robyn.dixon@latimes.com

Zimbabwe Opposition Death Toll Reaches 48 As More Slain Activists Found

VOA

By Jonga Kandemiiri
Washington
22 May 2008

The number of Zimbabwean opposition members slain in political violence
since the country's March 29 elections rose to 48 on Thursday, said the
embattled Movement for Democratic Change party of presidential candidate
Morgan Tsvangirai.

MDC officials said their tally of dead activists rose after villagers in the
Uzumba and Maramba-Pfungwe constituencies in Mashonaland East province
discovered three more bodies of opposition members believed to have been
murdered recently.

An MDC official said police in the town of Mutawatawa confirmed the deaths,
adding that the bodies had been taken to the mortuary at Mutawatawa
Hospital.

Elsewhere, the family of another slain MDC activist, Tonderai Ndira, said
authorities at the mortuary in Parirenyatwa Hospital, Harare, told them they
had been ordered not to perform a post-mortem on the victim. Ndira's family
said hospital workers told them an order from above prohibited all autopsies
at the hospital until further notice.

The slain man's family vowed to engage legal council to compel a post-mortem
before burial services which informed sources said were likely to be held
Saturday.

A source in Mashonaland East said violence continued to mounts in that
province in spite of calls from officials of the ruling ZANU-PF party for an
end to attacks.

The source said MDC Mashonaland East Provincial Treasurer Shepherd Jani was
abducted from his home in Murehwa early Thursday by armed men thought to be
members of the ZANU-PF youth militia, and remained missing.

In Chiweshe, Mazowe Central constituency, Mashonaland Central province, a
source said seven ZANU-PF militia members armed with guns and axes forced
villagers to a ruling party political meeting in Munjeri village early
Thursday where opposition backers were beaten and forced to confess their
political allegiance.

Sources in Manicaland said an MDC driver and seven others were kidnapped and
tortured on Wednesday by war veterans who seized their vehicle and handed
them over to police at the Mutasa district council station. The victims were
accused of illegally possessing firearms, the sources said.

Mashonaland East MDC Organizing Secretary Piniel Denga told reporter Jonga
Kandemiiri that the party has not been able to remove injured activists from
Uzumba and Maramba-Pfungwe as the militia has sealed off those areas.

Ruling Party Terrorises Voters

IPSnews

 
By Grace Kwinjeh*

JOHANNESBURG, May 22 (IPS) - "It’s a very traumatized community. Their crime
on the 29th March election, at that polling station called Chaona, there
were about 80 votes for the MDC and 15 votes for ZANU-PF. So that is the
offence they committed. This is the price they are paying. And that is what
Retired Major Mhandu was saying. ‘You will have to learn’. Not only were the
victims killed, their parents were also beaten, their wives were also
beaten, their children were also beaten, so it was a very frightening
operation. The community is still traumatized. It’s very sad."

This testimony comes from an eyewitness account of the massacre of six
people on May 5 at Chaona, a village in northern Zimbabwe; the attack was
directed by Mhandu, a member of Parliament from the ruling Zimbabwe African
National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). The account is part of a report
on post-election violence by the Solidarity Peace Trust (SPT), a
church-based organisation focused on human rights abuses in Zimbabwe,
released in Johannesburg on May 21. It describes a climate of brutal
intimidation in Zimbabwe following March 29 elections, and recommends fresh
mediation led by the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in order
to form a transitional government.

The report, titled "Punishing Dissent, Silencing Citizens: the Zimbabwe
Elections 2008," is based on information gathered from 681 interviews
carried out across Zimbabwe between Jan. 1 and Apr. 30, supplemented by
consultations with Zimbabwean civil society and health professionals. The
SPT interviewed approximately 50 more people at the beginning of May.

The authors describe a campaign of beatings, torture and destruction of
homes since the elections, in which at least 22 people have been killed.
They say the attacks have been carried out by ZANU-PF supporters -- 
including war veterans and the party's youth wing -- but planned by a Joint
Operations Command that includes senior members of Zimbabwe's army, police,
prisons service and Central Intelligence Organisation. Army, police or
intelligence officers have been directly involved in 56% of the attacks
covered by the report. ZANU-PF members of Parliament are also accused of
directly participating in assaults.

The authors say none of their interviewees reported attacks by the MDC, but
the authors visited a business centre where opposition supporters had
retaliated to the destruction of shops owned by MDC-aligned traders by
burning and looting stores owned by ZANU supporters. They also acknowledge a
number of other unsubstantiated claims of violence attributed to MDC
supporters.

The violence is nationwide, but particularly intense in rural areas of the
northern province of Mashonaland, a traditional ZANU-PF stronghold, where
many voters for the first time gave their support to the opposition. The
authors believe the violence is meant to intimidate people in these areas
ahead of run-off presidential elections now scheduled for June 27.

The Zimbabwe Election Commission delayed the release of results of
Zimbabwe's March 29 election for several weeks, ostensibly for a recount,
but giving rise to suspicion of manipulation to avoid an outright defeat for
the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) by
its main challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change. When results were
eventually released on May 2, no candidate had the 50 percent required for
outright victory under Zimbabwe's electoral rules, necessitating a run-off.

Speaking in Johannesburg at the launch of the report, Brian Raftopoulos, a
leading Zimbabwean academic said, "SADC has to bring the parties together,
demobilize structures of violence, create a Transitional Government that
will oversee the writing of a new constitution, and set conditions necessary
for free and fair elections."

Raftopoulos insisted that in the present environment of state violence, the
June run-off election is neither practical nor desirable. "We have to bring
the two centres of power together. That is the only way forward. We have to
accept that ZANU PF is a force on the ground that is why it is able to do
the things it is doing."

The SPT report's recommendations were immediately questioned by analysts and
some civic leaders at the press conference who felt the proposal could give
fresh legitimacy to Mugabe’s regime while disregarding the electoral process
in which Zimbabwe's people have elected leaders of their choice.

Nicole Fritz, the Director of the Southern Africa Litigation Centre (SALC),
an organization that promotes human rights and the rule of law, was present
at the launch of the report; she warned against facilitating agreements
between elites for the sake of peace. "Issues of international justice are
no longer issues subject to political negotiation. Amnesties cannot be
granted for crimes against humanity and crimes to the scale of genocide,"
she said.

Doubts were also cast over South Africa's role in mediation. Elinor Sisulu,
spokesperson for the Johannesburg-based Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, a
coalition of civic organizations, accused South African president Thabo
Mbeki -- who led SADC-sponsored mediation efforts in 2007 -- of failing to
acknowledge the gravity of Zimbabwe’s political crisis. Sisulu cited Mbeki’s
earlier attempts to block United Nations Security Council efforts on
Zimbabwe, "Mbeki has opposed the UN, suggesting Africans can do it
themselves."

Political analyst Deprose Muchena suggested that any mediation team should
include other Africans with experience in political mediation and that
President Mbeki should not work alone. "We need to reinforce the mediation
route first by ensuring a sitting president not be allowed to work alone,
because it is quite evident he will not deliver a solution on his own."

For the moment, the MDC has begun campaigning for the run-off election. MDC
leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced today that he would re-enter Zimbabwe
this weekend; he delayed his return from South Africa to begin campaigning
for the June run-off when his security staff said there was evidence of a
plot to assassinate him. His party has decided to defy the violence in a bid
to remove Robert Mugabe through the ballot.

The SPT report quotes an unidentified MDC activist saying, "What has clearly
emerged in Zimbabwe is that an election is not an election, since ZANU PF
purports to know for the people of Zimbabwe rather than the people of
Zimbabwe to know for themselves…. We can’t be forced to do what we don’t
want to do. We can’t be forced to vote for hunger. We can’t be forced to
vote for poverty. We can’t be forced to vote for terrorists like this..."

*Kwinjeh is a member of the MDC National Executive and Deputy Secretary for
International Affairs (END/2008)

China Denies Zimbabwe Received Arms Shipment

VOA

By Daniel Schearf
Beijing
22 May 2008

China's foreign ministry has denied reports that a Chinese arms shipment
meant for Zimbabwe has reached the country.  Several African countries
refused the ship, but China says the vessel turned back because Zimbabwe did
not receive the weapons as agreed.  Daniel Schearf reports from Beijing.

China's foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang on Thursday rejected African
media reports that over the weekend said the weapons had finally reached
Zimbabwe.

Reports from South Africa and Mozambique said the cargo of guns, bullets,
grenades, and mortars had been unloaded in either Angola or Democratic
Republic of the Congo before making their way to Zimbabwe.

Qin, however, said those reports were completely false.

He says they have already many times said that the weapons sold to Zimbabwe
will return on the ship, called the An Yue Jiang, and that it is currently
on its way back to China.  Therefore, he says, the reports and comments are
groundless and purely fabricated.

The Chinese ship was refused permission to unload in South Africa out of
concern the weapons might be used against opposition to the government of
President Robert Mugabe.

Zimbabwe has been in political turmoil since President Mugabe's government
suffered heavy losses in a March election and then controversially delayed
the results and a runoff election, now scheduled for late June.

Human rights groups say violent gangs loyal to Mr. Mugabe have attacked
supporters of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who has himself survived
assassination attempts.

As pressure from human rights groups, churches, and the United States grew,
Mozambique and Zambia also refused the weapons shipment.

The Chinese government has not recognized the weapons were refused entry and
says Zimbabwe simply failed to receive them.

Zimbabwe: On the edge of the frying pan

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs -
Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 22 May 2008

JOHANNESBURG, 22 May 2008 (IRIN) - With governance in limbo and
post-election violence spreading beyond control in Zimbabwe, rights groups
and think-tanks have warned of a military coup, martial law or even civil
war. Hope that a run-off after disputed presidential elections will bring
reconciliation is fading, and calls for urgent pan-African intervention are
increasing.

"Zimbabwe's transition to democracy is being held hostage," said a report
released on 21 May by the International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based
think-tank.

Since the disputed presidential ballot on 29 March, Zimbabwe "has no elected
president or legally constituted cabinet; parliament has not been convened,
and ZANU-PF [the ruling party since Zimbabwe's independence from Britain in
1980] and MDC [the opposition Movement for Democratic Change] are
challenging half the parliamentary result in court," the report said.

According to the IGC, President Robert Mugabe came in second to the MDC's
Morgan Tsvangirai for the first time in 28 years and "has fought back by
withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a
countrywide crackdown [on opposition supporters]."

ZANU-PF party hardliners and the military "will not simply hand over power
to the MDC. They and Mugabe likely manipulated the presidential results to
show a run-off was necessary, and have put in a strategy to retain power by
force." Should Mugabe manage to cling to power, the consequences would be
"catastrophic" the ICG predicted.

Failure to address the loyalty of the security forces "would risk a
Tsvangirai victory, leading to a military coup or martial law, and the
security services splitting along factional lines."

No faith in a re-run

A second round of voting for presidential candidates Mugabe and Tsvangirai
has been scheduled for 27 June, but most observers fear the violence and
intimidation - allegedly perpetrated by security forces, war veterans, youth
militia and supporters of the ruling ZANU-PF party - against MDC supporters
have eroded the credibility of any possible outcome.

"There is growing risk of a coup, either before a run-off (in a pre-emptive
move to deny victory) or after a Tsvangirai win," the report warned.

In a letter written earlier this week, Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged the
African Union (AU) to "immediately send election observers and human rights
monitors to Zimbabwe to promote free and fair voting in the presidential
run-off."

The international rights watchdog said in a statement that its researchers
in Zimbabwe had documented widespread and systematic violence by ZANU-PF in
the provinces of Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland West, East and
Central.

"ZANU-PF officials and supporters, 'war veterans', the army and police have
been carrying out a violent campaign of beatings, torture and killings
against opposition MDC supporters ... despite the political agreement to
hold a run-off presidential election, the ZANU-PF violence has continued."

HRW said post-election violence had left at least 27 people dead, hundreds
beaten and tortured, and thousands displaced and in urgent need of
protection. "A run-off election will have no credibility without an end to
the violence and accountability for the abuses."

Calling for the immediate deployment of human rights monitors and observers
throughout the country, Georgette Gagnon, the Africa director of HRW, said:
"The AU should publicly demand that the Zimbabwean government halt its
campaign of violence, torture and intimidation. Unless the current situation
is reversed, more civilians will be brutalised and die."

Solidarity Peace Trust (SPT), a South African-based human rights
non-governmental organisation (NGO), said in a report on the violence in
Zimbabwe, released on 21 May: "There needs to be a general recognition that
Zimbabwe is sinking fast into the conditions of a civil war, propelled
largely by the increasing reliance on violence by the ruling party to stay
in power. A run-off of the Presidential election in the current environment
is neither practical nor desirable."

Too late to mediate?

The SPT report called on South African President Thabo Mbeki, appointed as
mediator between the Zimbabwean parties by the Southern African Development
Community (SADC), to "take urgent steps to bring the major parties together
into a renewed mediation process."

But faith in Mbeki has waned. While the AU and SADC called for the election
results to be released, and criticised the ongoing violence, Mbeki "has
continued to shield Mugabe", and his reluctance to criticise Mugabe or
condemn the violence "has badly undermined his credibility", the ICG report
commented.

Botswana's foreign minister, Phandu Skelemani, noted that "Everyone agreed
that things are not normal, except Mbeki. Maybe Mbeki is so deeply involved
that he firmly believes things are going right. But now he understands that
the rest of SADC feels this is a matter of urgency, and we are risking lives
and limbs being lost. He got that message clearly."

According to the ICG, the best way out of the crisis would be to form a
government of national unity under MDC leadership. "African leaders, with
support of the international community, must step in to stop the violence
and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an
agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government."

Most importantly, the ICG said, with or without a presidential run-off,
third-party African-led negotiations "are essential to help gain acceptance
from the military for a handover of power."

tdm/he

[END]

This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or
its agencies.

African governments begin repatriating its nationals

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs -
Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 22 May 2008

JOHANNESBURG , 22 May 2008 (IRIN) - The governments of Mozambique and
Zimbabwe have begun the "voluntary repatriation" of their citizens, in the
wake of ongoing xenophobic violence in South Africa that police say has
claimed 42 lives, displaced more than 16,000 people and led to 400 arrests.

The violence, which has seen some foreign nationals necklaced - a throwback
to a horrific practice used during the apartheid era, when suspected police
informants were killed by placing a burning tyre around their necks - has
spread throughout Gauteng and into other provinces since it first broke out
in the Johannesburg township of Alexandra 12 days ago.

Johannesburg's mayor, Amos Masondo, has invited all foreign diplomatic
missions to a meeting on 23 May, "to discuss xenophobic attitudes in
Johannesburg", a spokesperson for the Mozambican consulate told IRIN.

"Plus or minus ten buses left yesterday [21 May] and there are about 10
buses leaving today for Mozambique. We are doing our best to take our people
home," o the spokesperson said. About 1,200 people have been repatriated by
the Mozambique government and many other Mozambique nationals were making
their own way home.

The Mozambican daily newspaper, Noticias, reported that about 10,000
Mozambique nationals had fled South Africa since the violence began, but
this did not include those without legal travel documents, which was thought
would add thousands more to the number.

The consular spokesperson said the Mozambique government would provide
transport for as long as there was a demand, as "it is not just illegal
immigrants that are being attacked, even those who are legally here [in
South Africa] are being attacked."

Chris Mapanga, of the Zimbabwean consulate in Johannesburg, said his
government was "organising voluntary repatriations and the work is in
progress. We are at a very advanced stage." He declined to reveal the
numbers of those requesting repatriation or when the repatriations would
begin, and what type of transport would be used.

"It is not like an instant lightning strike. Xenophobia starts at 1 p.m. and
then the buses [for those wanting to be repatriated] leave at 1.30 p.m.," he
told IRIN.

Mapanga said research indicated that there were about 800,000 to one million
Zimbabweans in South Africa; other estimates have put the number of people
who have fled the eight-year recession at more than three million. Annual
inflation in Zimbabwe is unofficially estimated at 1,000,000 percent, with
severe shortages of food, fuel and energy.

Widespread reports of violence ahead of Zimbabwe's second presidential poll
on 27 June - scheduled after neither President Robert Mugabe, of the ZANU-PF
party, nor opposition Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan
Tsvangirai achieved the required 50 percent plus one vote majority - is also
believed to have increased undocumented migration to South Africa.

The 29 March poll saw the ruling ZANU-PF party lose control of parliament
for the first time since winning independence from Britain in 1980.

Xenophobic violence spreads

Outside the epicentre of xenophobic violence in Gauteng Province, in the
last few days reports of further mayhem have come from KwaZulu-Natal, Free
State and Mpumalanga provinces. The government has announced that army
resources would be available to police to try and end the violence.

Opposition parties in the South African parliament welcomed the decision,
but criticised President Thabo Mbeki's slow response. Democratic Alliance
Chief Whip Ian Davidson said in a parliamentary debate on 22 May that the
government had only agreed to deploy the army after 42 people had died, when
his party had made such calls after the deaths of 12 people.

Xenophobia in South Africa was expected to be discussed during the seventh
Nigeria/South Africa Bi-national Commission in the Nigerian capital, Abuja.

Kingsley Mamabolo, head of the South African delegation to Abuja, reportedly
said: "Of course, there will explanations and discussions about it
[xenophobia], and the commission will have to find the best possible way to
address the problem."

The News Agency of Nigeria has reported that dozens of Nigerian-owned shops
have been attacked in Johannesburg, while a Nigerian-owned tavern in the
Durban township of Umbilo was attacked by a mob.

A few weeks before the xenophobic violence erupted, Nigerian authorities
voiced concern their nationals were being targeted by criminals after
arriving at Johannesburg's international airport.

South Africa's shame

The violence has been condemned by the government, trade unions, church and
community organisations, as well as individuals on local radio talk shows.

Imtiaz Sooliman, chair of Gift of the Givers, a South African humanitarian
organisation, reportedly said an appeal for assistance had generated an
overwhelming response, comparable to donations after the 2004 Asian tsunami,
which killed 220,000 people. "People are saying they are ashamed of what is
happening to South Africa," he said.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has begun distributing
2,000 "dignity packs", containing basic sanitary and nutritional items, mats
and blankets to meet the immediate needs of displaced people.

The IOM has also joined forces with Metro FM, one of South Africa's largest
commercial radio stations, to launch a campaign to "educate the public about
foreigners' and locals' rights and responsibilities, in a bid to forestall
more attacks and to pave the way for reconciliation and integration," the
IOM said in a statement.

Chief Justice Pius Langa told local media: "It is abundantly clear that if
we, as South Africans, fail to take immediate and effective action to these
attacks we are heading for a bleak future indeed."

go/he

[END]

This article does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or
its agencies.

Go Home, Tsvangirai Tells Traumatized Zimbabweans In South Africa

VOA

By Patience Rusere
Washington
22 May 2008

Zimbabweans seeking refuge from days of murderous anti-immigrant riots in a
police station on the outskirts of Johannesburg took comfort and
encouragement Thursday from opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai who urged
them to return to Zimbabwe to rebuild their lives and support his
presidential bid to restore their country.

Tsvangirai told a thousand or so displaced Zimbabweans during his visit to
the police station in Alexandra township, one of many subject to mob
violence in the past several days, that he would himself return to Harare on
Saturday after weeks in Johannesburg from which he embarked on regional and
international diplomatic initiatives.

Tsvangirai is set to face President Robert Mugabe on June 27 in a
presidential run-off election perceived to be fraught with risk for the
opposition leader. He outpolled Mr. Mugabe in the March 29 first round by
47.9% to 43.2%, according to official figures, though his Movement for
Democratic Change insists he won the ballot outright.

Tsvangirai was scheduled to return to Zimbabwe on May 17, but MDC officials
called off the homecoming alleging a plot was afoot to assassinate him. The
opposition party later alleged that military intelligence had fielded
snipers to take Tsvangirai's life.

Despite that alleged plot, which some observers find credible given the
increasingly deadly wave of political violence targeting opposition members,
Tsvangirai in recent days has come under increasing pressure to return and
launch his campaign.

Correspondent Benedict Nhlapho of VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe reported from
Alexandra on the emotional response to Tsvangirai's surprise visit.

One of the Zimbabweans in Alexandra who heard Tsvangirai’s words of
consolation after being assaulted and seeing his property seized by a
xenophobic mob, said he would heed his advice to go home and rebuild his
shattered life.

The man, who gave his name only as Tawanda, told reporter Patience Rusere
that he cannot go on living in destitution at the police station in
Alexandra, and while he may face hunger and violence at home, he would
rather die among his own people.

With immigrants accounting for one in 10 of South Africa’s population of 50
million, the bulk of them Zimbabwean, some say it was only a matter of time
before major violence like that which left at least 42 people dead this week
would occur.

Reporter Chris Gande of VOA's Studio 7 for  Zimbabwe looks at how South
Africa’s attraction to millions as a political and economic haven led to
tragedy.

Mugabe Accuses Opposition Of Being Behind Country’s Woes

VOA

By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C.
23 May 2008

Zimbabwe President, Robert Mugabe is accusing opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) of colluding with independent businesses to hike
prices of goods and make miserable the life of ordinary Zimbabweans.  Mugabe
said ongoing spiraling inflation, the shortages of basic commodities,
constant power cuts, high transport costs and intermittent disruptions to
water supplies are calculated attempt by the opposition MDC, which is backed
by Britain to force a regime change. Mugabe also described as illegal
various sanctions imposed on the Zimbabwe government, which he said is
causing untold hardships on the ordinary people. But the opposition
dismissed Mugabe’s accusation saying he is to blame for the country’s
economic and political crisis. Sydney Masamvu a Zimbabwean with the
International Crisis Group in South Africa. He tells reporter Peter Clottey
from the capital, Pretoria that Mugabe’s accusations are without foundation.

“I think you can see what has become the hallmark of President Mugabe’s
rhetoric. That he blames everyone, but himself for the problems bedeviling
the country. The country has been mismanaged for the past eight to 10 years
before even the formation of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
And really to blame everything on the MDC and the British without really
himself taking and introspection and apportioning himself the blame, which
he is the leader of Zimbabwe finds itself in is really what can amount to an
insult to the Zimbabweans who are suffering under the current circumstances
of best mismanagement by his regime and his leadership,” Masamvu pointed
out.

He said the targeted sanctions against leaders of Mugabe’s government are in
the right direction.

 “The sanctions are targeted travel sanctions… the MDC is not the one, which
is behind all the bad policies, which Mugabe has implemented in the past ten
years for the simple reason of trying to perpetuate his stay in power. So,
in a sense it is high time that Mugabe acknowledges that he has mismanaged
the country he should exit and make the way for the setting up of a
transitional government, which sets the country forward on toward economic
and political recovery,” he said.

Masamvu said there are mixed results of the ongoing sanctions against the
ZANU-PF government.

“I think you can look at it in two ways one that the sanctions as much as
they were targeted in travels have not helped. I think most of Zimbabwe
politicians who are on the targeted travel sanctions have done their
business transactions in South Africa, neighboring countries, and Malaysia
and life has been going on for them. But in a sense so far as some of the
leadership of Mugabe’s regime does not interact with western financial
institutions that is a good thing. But the whole country has suffered
because of the sanctions,” Masamvu noted.

He said the opposition stands a good chance to win next month’s presidential
run-off.

“Mugabe has gone beyond the line where he can win an election. Whether free
or fair Mugabe can no longer win an election, so, in a sense that argument
does not follow. There are no chances of the MDC there are no chances for
Morgan Tsvangirai. Morgan Tsvangirai will humiliatingly defeat Mugabe in any
election he (Mugabe) can only stay in power through violence or fraud. He
can no longer win an election, it is beyond him,” he said.

Excommunication and dictators

Stand up for Zimbabwe

FROM THE ZIMBABWE VIGIL

Press Release – 22nd May 2008
 

 
Zimbabwean exiles in the UK are to “Stand Up for Zimbabwe” on Saturday, 24th May.  The event is part of an international event to commemorate Africa Day during the week of 25th May. It is organised by the Zimbabwe Vigil which has been standing up for Zimbabwe every Saturday afternoon for the last six years. 
 
We will be standing up for Zimbabwe at 6 pm at the end the Vigil by forming a large circle and singing the African anthem ‘Nkosi Sikelele / Ishe Komberera Africa’ in Ndebele and Shona. This is how we end the Vigil every week.  We are often joined by passers-by who are visibly moved by our singing. 
 
Depending on the weather, we are planning a mass 'lie down' as a way of graphically illustrating how many more people might die if the crisis isn't resolved.
 
We will also be asking supporters to ask their churches and community groups around the UK to organise ‘Stand up for Zimbabwe’ events on Sunday, 25th May.
 
The international event is gathering momentum with regional events planned in several African countries – check: www.standupforzimbabwe.org.
 
Event:                                  ‘Stand Up for Zimbabwe’
Venue:                               Outside the Zimbabwe Embassy, 429 Strand, London WC2
Date / time:                         2 pm – 6 pm, Saturday, 24th May 2008 with singing of ‘Nkosi Sikelele /     Ishe Komberera Africa’ in Ndebele and Shona at 6 pm.
Photo Opportunities:            Zimbabwean singing, dancing and drumming.
Interview Opportunities:       Political activists, torture and rape victims.
Further information:              Contact Vigil Co-ordinators Rose Benton (07970 996 003) and Dumi Tutani (07960 039 775)
 
Vigil Co-ordinators
 
The Vigil, outside the Zimbabwe Embassy, 429 Strand, London, takes place every Saturday from 14.00 to 18.00 to protest against gross violations of human rights by the current regime in Zimbabwe. The Vigil which started in October 2002 will continue until internationally-monitored, free and fair elections are held in Zimbabwe. http://www.zimvigil.co.uk
 

Two ROHR activists killed in cold blood

FROM THE ZIMBABWE VIGIL

20th May 2008

A report received from our partner organization Restoration of Human Rights
in Zimbabwe (ROHR)

18th May 2008
Godfrey Kauzani and Cain Nyeve, who were abducted by the notorious state
security agents and went missing last week, have been found dead in
Goromonzi. The two bodies were already rotting in the bush when they were
found on Sunday. Both were ROHR activists who participated actively in ROHR
activism and demonstrations against the vagaries of the now defunct Zanu PF
rule. They were visiting in Murehwa together with their colleague Tedius
Chimedza and Better Chokururama who was their driver.

The vehicle they were travelling in was intercepted by two Toyota Hilux cars
that had no registration numbers. The cars blocked the road in the front and
back and armed men in civilian clothes jumped off their vehicles and
kidnapped them in broad day light. Tedius Chimedza by some miracle managed
to escape but Better was brutally murdered on the spot. He was stabbed
several times until he passed out. Better was buried at Warren Hills in
Harare, a funeral that was attended by ROHR members and other members of the
civic society. Godfrey Kauzani and Cain Nyeve went missing for some days
until their bodies were found on Sunday in the Goromonzi area in Mashonaland
East. Cain Nyeve's eyes are missing, strong evidence suggesting that he was
brutally tortured and had his eyes maliciously skinned out alive.

19th May 2008
In a bizarre twist, a day after the recovery of Kauzani and Nyeve's bodies,
the wives of both victims were abducted last night from their homes in
Domboshava by suspected state security agencies. Their whereabouts is still
shrouded in mystery and fears are growing that they might be murdered. Mrs
kauzani was abducted in her home in Domboshava, although Mrs Nyeve's place
of kidnapping is still to be verified.

Reports that have just been received confirm that the funeral of both
Kauzani and Nyeve that was supposed to be held in Domboshava has been moved
to Mabelreign where activists will attend the funeral since relatives in
Domboshava have refused to gather there because of fear for their lives.

Tedius Chimedza, the only survivor, is in hiding and reports suggest he has
sought asylum out of the country.

Restoration of Human Rights Zimbabwe members and staff express their shock
and dismay and convey our heartfelt condolences to the families of the
victims. We pray that the Mrs Kauzani and Mrs Nyeve will be found alive very
soon. We mourn and at the same time celebrate their lives, which is a
testimony of true heroes who dedicated their lives to the struggle for the
people's rights and freedoms. May their souls rest in peace.

Vigil co-ordinator
The Vigil, outside the Zimbabwe Embassy, 429 Strand, London, takes place
every Saturday from 14.00 to 18.00 to protest against gross violations of
human rights by the current regime in Zimbabwe. The Vigil which started in
October 2002 will continue until internationally-monitored, free and fair
elections are held in Zimbabwe. http://www.zimvigil.co.uk

Hot Seat interview with Zimbabwean civic leader Dr Lovemore Madhuku

You can also download transcript via this link: http://www.swradioafrica.com/pages/hotseat200508.htm
 
       
SW Radio Africa Transcript

Journalist Violet Gonda speaks with constitutional law expert and civic leader Dr. Lovemore Madhuku

Broadcast on 16 May 2008

       
Violet Gonda: The Chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly Dr. Lovemore Madhuku is my guest on the programme Hot Seat today. Hello and welcome Dr. Madhuku.

Dr. Madhuku: Thank you very much and you are welcome as well.

Violet: Let's start by getting your thoughts on the situation in Zimbabwe at present.

         
Dr. Madhuku: Well the situation is very clear here in terms of the political framework, I think you know what is the subject matter here in Zimbabwe is the violence that the ruling party is unleashing. This violence is really so bad in terms of how it is affecting rural people and also in the urban areas. So we have seen violence at almost the same levels as we saw them in 2000 when people were just randomly beaten, homes destroyed and so forth. That's what we are experiencing at the moment.

Violet: And we hear the numbers of those getting killed keep increasing and the MDC says at least 34 people are now dead as a result of the violence. How can people protect themselves against this brutality?

Dr. Madhuku: I think one way of protecting themselves is of course to try and defend themselves. There are many areas where people have responded to the attacks and there has been a reduction in the level of the attacks. These people have gone out and said; 'No you can't do this to us, we will also beat them' and so forth. Things have gone a bit better there. But where they just keep quiet while they are being beaten the violence goes completely uncontrolled.

Violet: So Dr. Madhuku are you saying people should begin to retaliate in self defense?

Dr. Madhuku: There should be self defense where it is possible and where it is impossible we would expect that the international community and the rest of us, the political people in the country could take measures against the government. Like for example if people are getting brutalized in Mutoko, in Mashonaland East there is nothing to stop people in Harare going into the streets in large numbers protesting against that behaviour and putting pressure on the government here in Harare. So those two methods must be employed. People in the urban areas or people in areas that are not subject to the violent attacks must be seen by action on the ground. I think that they should increase their level of political sensitivity. If we are all seen in the streets in those areas that are safe, protesting against Mugabe's methods it would be very difficult for them to continue to do that because it would cause instability in the country. But where people can defend themselves they should defend themselves and they are doing it in some areas with success.

Violet: But why are we not seeing this widespread outcry right now. People are getting beaten, tortured and killed and yet there is no widespread outcry. Why is there silence from those that are in the country?

Dr. Madhuku: The problem we are facing at the moment is that this is happening in the context of an election dispute and so naturally many people against ZANU were providing a framework for the MDC leadership to sort of give some direction on how to do it and how to respond and that has not been coming. And it is difficult to expect other organizations or other groups to just come up and say; 'Look we are facing a very difficult situation in the country. There is ZANU PF violence there let's do it this way', it's a bit problematic, although that can still be pursued. But there really is a leadership vacuum in so far as the response is concerned.

Violet: Let's talk a bit more about that leadership vacuum. It seems that many people are waiting for Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, to go back to Zimbabwe and mobilize people but what about the civic society itself, what is it doing right now to either mobilize the people or what are you doing in response to the abuse? 

Dr. Madhuku: Well there is not one organization called civic society. Civic society are various groups which exist outside political parties and they are called civic society. There are civic groups that are already providing the medical facilities, providing the humanitarian assistance. Many of them are doing that. So perhaps if you were asking the civic groups that would be called political, in terms of political response. The agreement amongst civic groups is that any political response must not draw a distinction between civic society and the MDC. Any political response must be done as one unit. So what has only been done now has been meetings between civic society and the MDC to say; 'How do we respond and respond together?' We cannot have a situation where there is a civic society response there and an MDC response there. That wouldn't produce any results because it is election related. If you do an activity that might be criticized by the other organs and then it is counterproductive.

Let's say the NCA was to come out and start its own activities which may not be in line with what the MDC thinks then we would be asked who is the NCA to be causing this problem when this is about elections.

Violet: So you mentioned that there is a leadership vacuum. What should be happening that is not happening right now?

Dr. Madhuku: I think what should be happening that is not happening right now is to get a political direction from those who are outside ZANU PF; 'ZANU PF is doing this to our people, the people of the country, let's do this' and we all do that. But there is no statement telling us or advising us or leading us into some direction. People have so many ideas - there are those like I said earlier, that some people must retaliate but I know that you will get responses which criticize that approach. They will say; 'No, no you can't do that, you can't respond', but this is merely my opinion. Or people who would say let's go to the streets. I have given you two suggestions as to what should be done but merely I am speaking as an individual and if I were to be in a position to ask the NCA people to do that, that is what we would do. But I am merely one person I am not the person at this stage who should do that. I think the person to do that would be Tsvangirai and his executive or leaders. They should come out very openly and say what they expect Zimbabwean people to do.

Violet: And Mr Tsvangirai has been criticized for spending too much time outside the country while his supporters are being beaten and killed. He is also attacked for being reactive and always responding and waiting for Robert Mugabe to make the first move. Do you think this is fair criticism?

Dr. Madhuku: It is very, very fair criticism. Tsvangirai should not have been out of the country for more than a few days and I think that point must be made. And I think there are people around Tsvangirai who keep telling him that it is appropriate that he should do what they call 'diplomatic work' outside the country. In political leadership it is important that you are there with the people that you lead. Diplomatic initiatives are secondary. They play a secondary role to the processes. The first process was an election; people went out and peacefully voted for the MDC and voted for Tsvangirai for President. They have played their part and if that position is being reversed by a government I don't think the first response is; 'Let me go to the United Nations to try and ask them to intervene'. I think the first thing is; 'No what do we do here on the ground, in the country?' So I would understand that there was need from time to time for Tsvangirai to talk to African leaders, talk to leaders in wherever places he went to but that cannot be done indefinitely or ad infinitum. You have to say I do it for a week and that's all.

But I find that even some of the guys that are working with him they want to make it big news that he is coming back to Zimbabwe . That should not be big news at all. The fact is that there is an election that took place when Tsvangirai was around, people went to vote and they are quite frustrated by what ZANU PF is doing, they expect the leadership to be in the country, to be harassed together with them and to provide the way. And it is even disturbing that the MDC says when he (Tsvangirai) comes back they want to do what they call victory meetings; I don't know what that means. That is actually out of touch to what is happening in the country.

Violet: But knowing the extent of the situation on the ground in Zimbabwe right now would it really make any difference if he was in the country and also what about the safety situation?

Dr. Madhuku: That question of yours seems to suggest that Tsvangirai is in some special class. He is only special to the extent that he is providing leadership. His only role is to be the leader - that is his role - and leadership is not being protected. Leadership is to really take the risks that go with leadership. So you shouldn't say would it make any difference; the point of the matter is that the political struggle is taking place in Zimbabwe and he is leading a struggle in Zimbabwe so he should be in Zimbabwe where the struggle is. I don't think it matters to say will it make a difference or not because he is not leading a struggle being waged elsewhere. It's a struggle being waged in Zimbabwe and those who are involved in it should be here with the risks that go with it.

Violet: There is this frustration that you talked about that there is no action in Zimbabwe . Now do you think Mugabe has skillfully used the power of the incumbency to wear out and intimidate the people to such an extent that Zimbabweans are now powerless to fight for their rights?

Dr. Madhuku: Zimbabweans are not necessarily powerless to fight for their rights. I think I must emphasize that issue of a leadership vacuum - I want to get back to it. Zimbabweans are the same Zimbabweans who fought for liberation. That is always the mistake that comes in. These are the people who went to war against the Smith regime, it's the same Zimbabweans that did that. And although they are peaceful in the sense that they see what Mugabe is doing I think they are prepared to fight. Would you have imagined that these people would have turned out the way they did on the 29 th of March and delivered that vote against Mugabe, in the light of his propaganda, in the light of intimidation and so forth? I am sure many people will turn out and vote against him and that many more also would still be prepared to engage in other actions that promote the processes. But you are correct that Mugabe is using the power of the incumbency - that is he is in power and he is manipulating the system but he is getting away with it because we are not obviously making it very difficult for him to continue doing that.

I mean take the delay in the Presidential results as long as they were delaying every day and they were seeing nothing happening, they were going to continue doing that. And now they wake up and tell us that they are not going to respect the 21 day period in the Electoral Act, and I am sure many people will accept it. And then we go to an election and I am sure they want to come out of that election making sure they have won it and so on. These things will continue to be the case as long as there is not political leadership that is provided. And you alongside many journalists want to place civic society in the position of political leaders and I think that is very unfair because we are not leading a political struggle. The fact that in Zimbabwean civic society people have been arrested, beaten up and so on it shouldn't be the case. That should be the role of those who are in political leadership really.

I don't know if there was a civic society during the National liberation struggle but what I knew then was that civic society was just providing food and so on but the so called guerilla fighters, the so called national liberators were the people on the ground in the forefront and they did most of the work. Then the civic society people - because these are churches - these are the kind of people that are normally soft, that normally constitute civic society. But in Zimbabwe this is being turned upside down.

Violet: But Dr. Madhuku didn't civic society actually place itself in this position of entering the political space. Even before the elections, you announced that as the NCA you were endorsing and campaigning for Morgan Tsvangirai, so is it the media that has done this or it's the civic society and yourself that has done that?

 Dr. Madhuku: I think perhaps we are misunderstanding each other. I am not saying that civic society must not play a political role, it plays a political role and we have been playing a political role and the points that you are raising that is clear politics. The point I've been making here is the question of who leads who in this kind of crisis. That is the issue which I'm sure should come out very clearly in this interview. Who leads who? Should civic society be at the forefront and then dragging the MDC and other people to a political direction or should the MDC be dragging the rest of society and seeking civil society support for a political direction? They asked us to vote for Tsvangirai and we did that, we campaigned for Morgan because he presented himself as the presidential candidate. What I am saying is that the MDC must present another political direction which we will endorse and support.

For example if they call upon us to mobilize Zimbabweans along side with them to go to the streets, we'll do that as a reaction to what is happening. What I am warning against is to have a situation where everyone, each person finds their own solution because that becomes problematic. Like you see currently the Trade Union leaders are in jail here; the Secretary General and the President. And their crime according to Mugabe is that they made remarks during the May Day celebrations indicating that people were being killed and that's all. But I think there is very little that is happening from society to deal with that situation.

Violet: I would like to hear your thoughts about this run off that's going to take place within 90 days and also there are others who are talking about a Transitional Authority or a Government of National Unity, but before I go there I wanted to find out something about what you said just before the elections. It was reported that you said this is Morgan Tsvangirai's last chance to win an election and if he loses he should stand down. So would this run off be a referendum for Tsvangirai?

Dr. Madhuku: The whole electoral process has been a referendum on him because that is where the problem has been. You see the electoral environment is very uneasy and that was pointed out before the election, and obviously participating in an election of this nature was always risky. I think there was the surprise in the House of Assembly where the MDC or the opposition got more seats than the ruling party but parliament has never been an issue in this election. The issue in this election is the Presidential seat. Who becomes the President of Zimbabwe? That is the question and everyone in the streets knows that, which is why you didn't get any single celebration when the announcement came that there is no winner but Tsvangirai has more votes than Mugabe. People knew that they had not achieved what they wanted so NO celebrations. So this election still remains, I think it's a very big risk. The run off process would still be a situation where Mugabe wants to stop Tsvangirai becoming the President by undemocratic means by using an undemocratic electoral framework. We have seen it; the delay in announcement of results, compromising the position of ZEC. You know this thing of changing the goal post about the run off, beating up people and getting away with it and still calling it an election and this is where the problem is. So where we would not blame the MDC or Tsvangirai or anyone we must be correct that if the processes continues to be the same process we can't continue to elections; Mugabe versus Tsvangirai, Mugabe versus Tsvangirai, Mugabe versus Tsvangirai. I mean you can't continue to have a situation like that.

Violet: Based on the conditions right now and the hurdles that he has faced, if he does lose in the run off do you think that he should stand down as the MDC leader? Do you still stand by your comments?

Dr. Madhuku: I am sure he will do that. He has done a lot of work, he has done a lot of good work himself and I have no doubt that it will be very difficult once you get into another election again and Mugabe still cheats in that and then you cannot expect Tsvangirai to wait for another 5 years to go for another election.

Violet: So how significant are the conditions on the ground going to be on the outcome of the run-off

Dr. Madhuku: I don't think there are any miracles that can happen when an election is conducted in a one-sided manner and the ZANU PF regime is controlling the electoral machinery, everyone knows that. ZANU PF regime is determining every rule that applies in this election. The only thing that we know the MDC is doing is to put their candidate there. They currently can't campaign but they are just believing too much in some fate or that there is some possibility of divine intervention. You cannot expect in an election such as this and to have a result that they announce. I think that there are two possibilities, one possibility is to have a result which favours Tsvangirai which is never announced or a result that we are told it favours Mugabe. Those are the kind of things we will get.

We must emphasize that it is important before you get into an election, to make sure that the conditions for that election are such that you can call it an election. This one you cannot call it an election. I mean when you say run off, run off is an election; we are talking about an election. So you cannot call it an election under the current circumstances. For example ZANU PF knows the date of that election the MDC does not and they will pretend that they are waiting for ZEC but everyone knows that they know the date of the election.

Tomorrow there will be a meeting of the Central committee of ZANU PF, yesterday there was a meeting of ZAU PF Politburo and they are doing this. The reason why Mugabe never panicked and then even went so far as to announce that Tsvangirai is the winner of the first round is because the first round was simply a nomination process for the second round so that is what it amounts to. So really more people nominated Tsvangirai for the second election than Mugabe. That's what legally it is and politically even - it is also the same thing. It amounted to a nomination and then you start afresh. So they can't really panic and they obviously know that now they will not make certain mistakes about how their machinery is utilized to rig elections, so they will definitely rig the elections. 

Violet: Given this situation that you have described do you think it is a good idea for the MDC to participate in the second round?

Dr. Madhuku: Well I think that you should ask me whether it was a good idea for the MDC to have participated in the first election; it was not a good idea. But then once they participated in the first election, they cannot be expected not to participate in the second election. The second election is the same election as the first one; it is a continuation of the same. So we should not separate those two questions and say was it wise to participate in the first; was it wise to participate in the second? I will only answer the question relating to was it wise to participate in the first one? It was not wise because the playing field was not even. Whatever the results that came out of an uneven playing field that did not change anything because we are going to a second, so now they have to participate in the second election because it is a continuation. They have raised hopes, the 47.9%, 48% of the people that voted for Tsvangirai believe that they will draw 2% or at least two point something percent from the other people. So they will force Tsvangirai to go in election and he shouldn't even debate that point, he should simply go all the way. He is already in it. It's like a person who is already on a conveyor belt, so they cannot do anything and once the flight has taken off and you can't drop off, it is a continuation. But then you could answer the question by saying it was unwise to fly in the first place.

Violet: Now Dr Madhuku other people were talking about a plan B that perhaps what is now needed in Zimbabwe is some kind of a coalition government. First of all, if there is further delay of the run off, is there need for a Transitional Authority in your view?

Dr. Madhuku: I don't think there is any need for that. We need to have a resolution of this matter of elections and thereafter we can talk of a Government of National Unity process. If you allow the MDC and ZANU PF just to sit there and then come up with an arrangement it will be very detrimental to the interests of the country. What this country needs is really a comprehensive solution. I think these politicians are trying to grab the space that is there. I mean once they get a Transitional Government what will be the content of that government, what will be the intentions, what will it be doing and so forth? It's a bit more problematic.

I think what we would rather have is a resolution one way or another; either Tsvangirai wins and becomes President or Mugabe remains in office and then we still insist on it if for example Tsvangirai was to be the President it's clear to us what we expect him to do. He must now dismantle the whole oppressive machinery of the State and have the transformation that explains his relationship with civic society at the moment. This is why the civic society says the people of Zimbabwe must vote for Tsvangirai and so forth. So that kind of result is clear.

Violet: How realistic is that exactly Dr. Madhuku, we do know how powerful Robert Mugabe and his ruling party is?

Dr. Madhuku: It's not realistic, it's not necessarily realistic. I was just going on. I was going to say that either we have that result or we have that other result where Mugabe remains in power and then we still mobilize our forces to push for reform and so on. A Government of National Unity before the end of the electoral process would give the two political parties a complete hold over society, which is not good.

Violet: That's what I actually wanted to find out that some have said that the MDC is very vulnerable at this stage even though it has won most of the parliamentary seats and it won the first round of the Presidential election, but that it is competing with a regime with deep roots and a strong state machinery on its side. So in the event that people do decide to go into a Government of National Unity. Do you think the MDC should accept?

Dr. Madhuku: I don't think they should accept that if they know why they were formed, if they know why they are in existence. The MDC is in existence to give the people of Zimbabwe an opportunity to restructure the current relations between the State and the people. To de-structure our whole way of life as a people - that's why the MDC is there, that's why we support them. If they decide to go into a Government of National Unity with ZANU PF - taking into account what some people are saying about stability and so on - that means the MDC would have along the line lost its founding reasons, I mean the founding objectives of MDC is not to grab power. A Government of National Unity is a power sharing arrangement and that means the MDC just wants power and that is not why it was formed. So they shouldn't agree. If they are still on the basis of why they were formed.

Violet: What about the military that has supported Mugabe from the beginning? Do you see the military bosses being part of any Government National Unity and also work to protect Mr Tsvangirai, a man that they have vilified from the very beginning?  Is it really possible that the military would work with Mr Tsvangirai?

Dr. Madhuku: I don't think so, I think that can only be asked if the political authorities were to announce that Tsvangirai has won and that power has been handed to him and that's when you can ask whether the military will be supporting him. But that result might never arise because the military at the moment - those top brass of the military - are against that position. We are told that they are the ones who are, currently, supervising this victimization and violence that is being committed against the people. That scenario, we should not really talk about it, I think we should talk about a scenario where if power were to be handed to Tsvangirai I think that issue of the military will became irrelevant. But the sole question is would power ever be handed to Tsvangirai by this regime through just a mere election.

Violet: How can the MDC secure this victory that they have won so far in the first stage, even in a GNU?

Dr. Madhuku: I don't know how a Government of National Unity is going to be structured. My understanding is that it's a government that has elements from both ZANU PF and MDC- then in that case I don't think that MDC can be clear to claim victory if they have that coalition arrangement. But, if for example they were to win the election, the Presidential election, and then invite some members of ZANU to join their government, then that would be an MDC government really but working with some elements of ZANU because you would invite them on the basis of what you think they can contribute. That's a different arrangement from the Government of National Unity.  

Violet: Does the Government of National Unity disregard the issue of Human Rights?

Dr. Madhuku: I don't see how ZANU PF depending on what position it has; in a Government of National Unity - as a junior partner or senior partner - would even change the way it is operating. In fact I think that the Government of National Unity that is an agreement between the two parties will not change much in terms of the political culture in the country.

Violet: I know we are speculating on this because it is not clear what is going to happen, but if there is a need of a Government of National Unity what role will opposition leaders like Simba Makoni and Arthur Mutambara have in your view and even the civic society?

Dr. Madhuku: My understanding is that those leaders, Arthur Mutambara and Simba Makoni, are the ones that are pushing for a Government of National Unity because they would have some space there. They cannot easily get space in a winner take all situation because they lost heavily in the last election. They were almost reduced to almost not relevant in the post election process now. The only reason why they are relevant is that there is no winner for the Presidential election and so there is this talk about the Government of National Unity. I even heard that some people wanted Makoni to be the President of the Government of National Unity. So those discussions will give those leaders space but I don't think they have much relevance, I mean they don't seem to be commanding much political support that can stop ZANU PF and MDC getting some arrangement of sorts.

Violet: And the civic society?

Dr. Madhuku: The civic society must not have any role in the Government of National Unity because they are not government. The civic society people must be there to deal with the guiding rights of people and so on, in the course of a functioning government. Keeping check of the government you know all those things.

Violet: The reason I was asking about civic society is that people like Dr Simba Makoni have stated in the past that what is now needed in the country is some sort of a Transitional Authority that should encompass all stake holders including those from the civic society.

Dr. Madhuku: That would be useful but Simba Makoni has no political clout to have his ideas implemented. There are so many people with good ideas, but I mean you can have your good ideas. Why should Simba Makoni's ideas be taken if for example he has not won his politics to get to that point? He must get the political support for that. His ideas make sense but they can't be implemented on the basis that he is not a political authority.

Violet: I have two final questions to ask you Dr Madhuku. The first one is Morgan Tsvangirai has said he doesn't want President Thabo Mbeki as the middleman on Zimbabwe anymore as he no longer has confidence in Mbeki's mediation. Now as civic society who in Africa or the international community do you think can help to bring confidence back to the mediation table?

Dr. Madhuku: Well I don't think I should answer that element. I think I should first comment on the fact that it is not wise to unnecessarily blame Mbeki for the problems in the country because Mbeki is just the President of South Africa and he can only do certain things not other things. I think he was playing his mediation role. Our only problem for example this side with Mbeki's mediation was that he focused on just ZANU PF and MDC but we never said Mbeki must stop mediation. We actually appealed to him to widen his mediation if possible.

So Zimbabweans should not be so ungrateful to start picking and choosing people saying ok we will want so and so to mediate and not so and so. I mean why, we should not do that. I think that can only be done as I said earlier on we should do our struggle here and make sure we do a lot on the ground in Zimbabwe and then we should welcome efforts by any foreign people that would want to assist us. It's very unfair to start saying no Mwanawasa is bad or is good, Mbeki is better or he is worse and so on. I think that is not the way. We should not have this victim psychosis where we just see ourselves as victims who the world must look upon us. We are not the only people in the world.

So I think it is not right to criticize Mbeki on the basis of saying somebody else will do better. I think it should be criticized on the basis of some of the tactics that he has used, that would make sense. But remember also that Mbeki is said to have been appointed by SADC and that is the intellectual argument that has been given which makes sense. He was appointed by SADC so you are not criticizing Mbeki per say. It's not an Mbeki mediation but a SADC mediation, so you would rather direct the focus to SADC.

Violet: It is interesting to hear your comments about this vis-à-vis what the MDC have been saying about Thabo Mbeki. I was just wondering have you had a chance to talk to Mr Tsvangirai or some of the MDC leaders to find out what the wayforward is?

Dr. Madhuku: You must remember that these top leaders have been out of the country for the past four weeks so we have not had any contacts with them. So most of the statements we hear about their position on Mbeki or position on run off and so on are statements we read in the media. There has been some dislocation a bit from the elections. We were very close just up to 4, 5 days after the elections but thereafter when there was a lot of travelling around, people were not in touch. But we have our own views we don't necessarily have to say their views are wrong we can express our own. They are the ones who are leading the party and they might know better and certainly I think if you speak to ordinary Zimbabweans they might feel very frustrated by Mbeki but when you talk to them more closely common sense prevails. Mbeki is not supposed to be the one who solves our problems. We must solve our own problems here and that where Mbeki can help he can help. In any case he will be leaving office in April and if our crisis is not fairly looked at now by ourselves, we would be blaming the next South African President and then what will the world say about us, because I have no doubt that the next person who takes over from Mbeki will not just jump onto the ship and drag Mugabe out and then take Tsvangirai or somebody else to be President of Zimbabwe. That's not going to happen. We must, I think appreciate the efforts of those people knowing their limitations being not Zimbabweans themselves. The solution to our struggle in Zimbabwe is to mobilize Zimbabweans, to create as much political heat as possible here and then in that context any mediator who will come would find it easier to do that.

The other danger with blaming Mbeki the way it has been done is that it plays into the propaganda machinery of ZANU PF where you get Mbeki being blamed but Gordon Brown is not blamed and he continues to say things on Zimbabwe and so on. I think it will play into the propaganda of the government and people will be beaten up in the rural areas; 'You are supporting puppets look at what they are doing to the rest of the Africa '. I think they should play differently.; we don't agree that you should condemn Mbeki but you can criticize him if you believe that he is not doing the right thing.

Violet: Finally Dr. Madhuku where does the issue of the constitution stand now?

Dr. Madhuku: Yeah excellent. That is the question I thought you were going to ask in the first instance and so on. That is the issue that is at the centre of my own focus. I think that all what has happened demonstrates the need for Zimbabweans to engage and force a process of reform here which gets a new constitution the day after elections. And I think that some people don't understand how it happens. A reform process changes the mind set. If we fight Mugabe over the processes and then win and obviously when we get to an election which is now a result of that process, we will be able to make more progress. Take the example of who should be the President of Zimbabwe; What happens to a person who has not gone to war for example and we debate it in a constitution reform process; You need liberation credentials to become President. If in a constitutional reform process Zimbabweans say NO, then that would mean that in any election that is fought in the contexts of a new constitution - which you yourself as Zimbabweans have made - no politician will stand on a platform and say don't vote for so and so because he did not go to war, if we know that we put in our constitution as Zimbabweans that war records are not part of the credentials for being President.

So there are so many things that come into being. As ZEC which knows that it is a result of a people driven process would actually play an independent role not a ZEC which believes that it owes its existence to President Mugabe. These are things that people must take into account. So I think whatever the outcome of elections we will be back in trying to convince Zimbabweans to prioritize the making of a new constitution. But currently we cannot do much until this election dispute is resolved, we can not. At the moment we simply urge Zimbabweans to support the opposition in any run off and then if Mugabe rigs it as we expect him to do, we then obviously say look I think now is time to consider this - an election must take place under a new constitution.

Violet: Thank you very much Dr. Lovemore Madhuku

Dr. Madhuku: Ok thank you.

Comments and feedback can be sent to violet@swradioafrica.com

CHRA Statement on Human rights abuses in Zimbabwe

"An eye for an eye makes the world blind"

HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN ZIMBABWE

20 May 2008

OUTRAGED by the unprecedented, unwarranted and heinous politically motivated
violence obtaining in our country,

NOTING with unreserved disappointment the appalling devaluation of our
national foundation, values, human life through violence that has become the
order of the day culminating in brutal wanton, maiming, abductions and
beatings, the primitive and unjustifiable price Zimbabweans seemingly have
to pay for their fundamental rights.

DEVOTED to the values of peace, stability, respect, democracy, love, human
dignity, equality, security and observance of human rights, Combined Harare
Residents Association (CHRA) wishes to

 URGE all political players to, as of yesteryear, desist from disrespect of
human life and dignity, revive the goodwill with which the "Bread basket of
Africa" had been built.

We CALL UPON the political stakeholders to examine their conscience and
respect human dignity, observe the rule of law and allow democratic
political transition by creating and observing  necessary conditions.

We PLEAD with Zimbabweans at large, to remain committed to the values of
peace and national healing through democratic means. We call upon them to
reinforce the foundational and fundamental values of nationhood. The nation
cannot afford the price of violence amid the prevailing economic malaise.
Are Zimbabweans prepared to pay for this unwarranted ransom charge? Is the
nation supposed to entangle its aspirations to the whims of politicians
while our beloved kith and kin suffer xenophobic attacks in South Africa?

We the leaders, members of Combined Harare Residents Association (CHRA),
residents of Harare and unarmed citizens of Zimbabwe unequivocally condemn
the political principals of the apple polishing disgraceful malcontents bent
on brewing mayhem and instability ahead of the oncoming Presidential
run-off, which is a crucial political event that will shape the future of
Zimbabwe.

  "An eye for an eye makes the world blind"

Farai Barnabas Mangodza
Chief Executive Officer
Combined Harare Residents Association (CHRA)
145 Robert Mugabe Way
Exploration House, Third Floor
Harare
ceo@chra.co.zw
www.chra.co.zw
 Landline: 00263- 4- 705114

Contacts: Mobile: 0912638401 and 011862012 or email info@chra.co.zw,
programs@chra.co.zw and admin@chra.co.zw

Africa Day 2008 to Highlight Crisis

SW Radio Africa (London)

23 May 2008
Posted to the web 23 May 2008

Tererai Karimakwenda

Sunday, May 25, is the annual commemoration of Africa Day, which was
established to observe the founding of the Organisation of African Unity in
1963.

The continental grouping eventually became the African Union (AU), and this
year the political crisis in Zimbabwe is the focus. This was decided on by
civil society organisations that held an emergency summit in Dar es Salaam
in April, after they were briefed by Zimbabwean groups on the ongoing state
sponsored campaign of murder and torture.

The idea is simple; any organisation around the world that wishes to
participate is being asked to organise activities with a Zimbabwean theme
during that week. But most importantly, they are being urged to join others
around the world in observing at least one minute of silence on Sunday at
twelve noon to show their solidarity with the suffering people of Zimbabwe.

The day has therefore been dubbed "Stand Up For Zimbabwe" Day, an idea that
was developed by the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC).

Regis Mtutu, the TAC International Campaigns Coordinator, said Africa Day
would have no meaning as long as the people of Zimbabwe do not enjoy their
rights

In South Africa the TAC has organised a protest march from Pretoria's City
Hall to the Union Building that houses government offices. Mtutu said they
would be delivering a petition for President Thabo Mbeki and the Ministry Of
Home Affairs, which calls on the government of South Africa to change their
policies and take stronger action on Zimbabwe.

In the U.K. members of the Zimbabwe Vigil Group are joining hands to form a
large circle and sing the song that is known as the African national anthem
'Ishe Komborera Africa' (God Bless Africa) at the end of the weekly vigil
they have conducted for the last 5 years. Vigil coordinator, Rose Benton
said more than 150 members are expected, but they invite all those who
sympathies with Zimbabweans at this crucial time to come join them on
Saturday from 2 to 6 P.M.

Those who wish to join and mark the event wherever they are can also gather
outside SADC offices, at the African Union and at United Nations offices.
Conducting a few minutes silence at these events is also suggested, so that
those assembled could stand in solidarity with the people of Zimbabwe. This
can be done wherever people are gathered, such as in a church, school or at
a sporting event. Any activity will do as long as it demonstrates an
understanding of the political, economic and electoral crisis being
experienced by the people of Zimbabwe.

More information on this campaign can be found at
www.standupforZimbabwe.org.

War brewing in Zimbabwe

By Staff ⋅ zimbabwemetro.com ⋅ May 22, 2008
The political violence in Zimbabwe will erupt in civil war unless it is
stopped soon and democracy is respected, a leading Zimbabwean civic
organisation has warned.

The Solidarity Peace Trust said this in Johannesburg on Wednesday as it
issued its latest report on the violence that has gripped the country in the
wake of the March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections.

The Zanu-PF lost its majority in parliament to the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) and President Robert Mugabe came second to MDC leader Morgan
Tsvangirai in the presidential election.

But because Tsvangirai did not officially win over 50 percent of the vote, a
run-off presidential election between him and Mugabe has been scheduled for
June 27.

The Solidarity Peace Trust’s report said that Zanu-PF “has embarked on a
systematic programme of retributive violence in response to its electoral
defeat”.

This violence was also aimed at destroying the MDC’s ability to fight the
run-off election, because key MDC polling agents and election observers were
being beaten, threatened or displaced.

The report said that there had been 22 confirmed deaths since April 1 from
this political violence and increasing numbers of reports of well-known
activists being abducted.

These levels of violence made a run-off presidential election, “neither
practical nor desirable,” and instead the trust urged President Thabo Mbeki,
the mediator appointed by the Southern African Development Community (SADC),
to bring Zanu-PF and the MDC together to seek a solution to the crisis.

The main aim would be to establish a transitional government, comprising
both MDC and Zanu-PF representatives, to stabilise the country’s politics
and economy and create conditions for peaceful, free and fair elections.

The trust’s director of research and advocacy, Brian Raftopoulos, stressed
that this transitional government would not be the same as the government of
national unity, which many people were advocating.

The government of national unity would be a long-term entity whereas the
transitional government would remain in power only long enough to stabilise
the country.

He said the MDC was now in the same position as the country’s liberation
movements were in the late 1960s when all peaceful avenues of political
expression were cut off and so they resorted to armed struggle.

The MDC had campaigned peacefully for power under the most difficult
conditions and yet still had not received the support from regional
governments which it deserved.

“We are getting close to the point where alternative forms of struggle are
being considered,” Raftopoulos warned.

ZANU PF militia abducting children
Soldiers and ruling ZANU PF party militia campaigning for President Robert
Mugabe have resorted to kidnapping children and women to force fathers and
husbands to return to villages where they face beatings and torture for
supporting the opposition, a local rights group has reported.

The Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) said several of the kidnapped women had
been sexually harassed as political violence that broke out after opposition
leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party
defeated Mugabe’s government in March 29 elections reaches alarming levels.

The ZPP report said in a report released this week that hundreds of male MDC
supporters in rural areas had fled violence to seek safety in cities while
leaving behind their wives and children. To induce them to return ZANU PF
militia were simply abducting the women and children, the group said.

The real culprit: Mbeki

The Guardian

The ANC is out of touch with the real causes of the anti-immigration riots:
corruption, crime and collusion with Mugabe

RW Johnson

May 22, 2008 8:00 AM |
The South African government, buffeted by the appalling publicity over the
anti-immigrant riots - which yesterday hit the Rand hard and knocked the
nation's tourist industry, has responded by looking for conspiracies.
Ministers are back to talking about a "third force" - the shadowy and
never-quite-seen white plot which was said to be behind anything that went
wrong in the early years of the new South Africa. This time the national
intelligence agency has been ordered to investigate the riots to track down
the conspiracy. Simultaneously the government is putting out a barrage of
propaganda suggesting that the riots are the work of Zulus and
hostel-dwellers ... code for Inkatha.

This is mainly buck-passing. It is true that when the riots started in
Alexandra, the victims pointed to Zulu men as the initiators. It is also
true that some of the anti-immigrant mob used the ability to speak Zulu as
the test of who was a foreigner and who a local - but that is simply because
Zulu is by far the most widely spoken language on the Reef, so that almost
any black South African can understand it. Otherwise, the TV footage of the
xenophobic mob shows large numbers of feral young men aged roughly 15 to 25.
This contrasts with the fact that most hostel-dwellers are aged 35 to 55.
Similarly, attempts to blame "criminals" for the violence are absurd. Of
course criminals take advantage of civil strife and move in its wake. But
the real grassroots resentments behind the trouble are unmissable. A number
of similar anti-immigrant incidents are now being reported from Durban.

Serious commentators here are unanimous and adamant that the basic cause of
the trouble has been the government's complete inability to control the
country's borders, the corruption in the ministry of home affairs which
makes it easy for immigrants to buy false documents, and the incompetence of
the police in controlling crime, which impacts heavily on township dwellers
who are now quite used to taking matters into their own hands, regularly
lynching suspected criminals. The net result has been a vast influx of
immigrants into a country suffering mountainous unemployment and very high
crime rates, and where the rule of law has already largely gone by the board
in township areas. In any country, this would be an explosive mix. One
really need look no further than this for an explanation.

The government is not merely out of touch but lost for alternatives. It
doesn't want to declare a state of emergency or call in the army because
that echoes the apartheid government. But nor does it want to set up special
camps for the foreigners, since that would accept that they are refugees -
and given that so many are Zimbabweans this would come perilously close to
admitting that the Mugabe government, which President Mbeki has been
supporting, is the source of much of the trouble. Worse, Mbeki is used to
relating everything to black-white racial polarisation and is embarrassed
both that black-on-black relations are far more explosive and that South
Africa is now seeing the worst violence since apartheid days. So it hunts
for conspiracies and preaches brotherly love.

It would appear that the riots are subsiding but unless the government
controls immigration and addresses the problems of crime and unemployment,
they will certainly recur. Nervous voices are being raised wondering what
the impact will be on South Africa's ability to stage the 2010 football
World Cup.

ZANU PF violence has crippled our campaign: MDC

Zim Online

by Tinotenda Kandi Friday 23 May 2008

HARARE – Zimbabwe’s opposition on Thursday said sustained violence by
soldiers and ruling ZANU PF party militia against its structures and
supporters had crippled its campaign for next month’s run-off presidential
election.

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party – whose leader Morgan
Tsvangirai is expected in the country tomorrow after staying away for more
than a month because of assassination fears – said ZANU PF militia have
tracked down campaign teams, beating and torturing them.

“There is no way our people can campaign. They are being hunted down by ZANU
PF vigilante groups so canvassing for votes is proving a very big problem
for us. Violence is the major hurdle to our campaign,” said MDC spokesman
Nelson Chamisa.

He added: “More disturbing is the crackdown on our MPs, councillors, and
structures. ZANU PF has a clear strategy to decimate our structures from the
very lowest levels.”

The run-off presidential election on June 27 is being held because
Tsvanigirai defeated Mugabe in the first round election on March 29 but
failed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote required to takeover the
presidency.

The MDC, Western governments and human rights groups have accused Mugabe of
unleashing state security forces and ZANU PF militias to wage violence
against the opposition party’s supporters and structures in an attempt to
regain the upper hand in the second ballot.

The opposition party says that at least 41 of its members have been killed
in political violence over the past two months while several thousands more
had been displaced from their homes.

But ZANU PF spokesman Patrick Chinamasa denied charges the party was behind
political violence and accused the MDC of raising the issue of violence only
as a scapegoat for what he said was the obvious defeat Tsvangirai faces in
June.

Chinamasa said: “They are preparing for defeat. I have asked them to form a
joint committee with us to investigate the violence and they have not
responded. Their supporters are attacking ZANU PF activists hence they
should stop pretending to be the victims.”

Meanwhile the MDC yesterday wrote to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC)
to express its lack of confidence in the body’s capacity to ensure a free
and fair presidential election run-off.

A lawyer for the opposition party, Selby Hwacha, said in a letter to the ZEC
an election managed and conducted by the commission would not produce a
result that reflects the will of Zimbabweans.

Hwacha said: “On the basis of the concerns expressed in this letter, MDC
hereby formally notifies the ZEC that it has resolved that the ZEC is
presently incapable of conducting elections in Zimbabwe that are free, fair,
transparent, proper, efficient, and credible.”

The MDC lawyer cited the long delays to issue results of parliamentary and
presidential elections in March and the recounts ordered in some
constituencies before full results were known as some of the reasons the
opposition party had lost faith in the commission’s ability to conduct
credible elections.

ZEC deputy chief elections officer Utoile Silaigwana refused to discuss the
MDC letter but said the commission would respond to the opposition party at
the appropriate time. He said, “our response will come at the appropriate
time. We will respond to the MDC, not the media.” – ZimOnline.

ZANU PF militia abduct children

Zim Online

by Tinotenda Kandi Thursday 22 May 2008

HARARE – Soldiers and ruling ZANU PF party militia campaigning for
President Robert Mugabe have resorted to kidnapping children and women to
force fathers and husbands to return to villages where they face beatings
and torture for supporting the opposition, a local rights group has
reported.

The Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) said several of the kidnapped women
had been sexually harassed as political violence that broke out after
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) party defeated Mugabe’s government in March 29 elections reaches
alarming levels.

The ZPP report said in a report released this week that hundreds of
male MDC supporters in rural areas had fled violence to seek safety in
cities while leaving behind their wives and children. To induce them to
return ZANU PF militia were simply abducting the women and children, the
group said.

"There are also numerous cases where women and children are being
taken as ransom and forcibly detained in set up bases until their fathers or
husbands who fled violence return to their villages. Women are also being
assaulted, tortured, and sexually harassed," the report read in part.

There was no immediate comment from ZANU PF, the government or police
on the kidnappings. However the government has in the past denied its
supporters were behind the violence while Mugabe on Wednesday accused the
MDC of carrying out violence against ruling party supporters.

The ZPP said it had recorded 4 359 cases of human rights violations
since March and these included looting of property, rape, torture and
murder. It said ZANU PF members, youths, uniformed forces, and government
officials were the alleged perpetrators in nearly all the cases of violence
it had recorded.

"The patterns of violence have also shifted with the violence being
more physical with an increase in cases of assault, murder, malicious damage
to property, and kidnapping," the ZPP ominously warned.

Political analysts say violence – that the MDC says has already killed
at least 43 of its supporters while displacing thousands others – could
worsen as official campaigning for a June 27 second round presidential
election gets into top gear when Mugabe launches his drive to retain power
on Saturday.

The run-off election is being held because Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe
in March but failed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote required to
takeover the presidency.

Tsvangirai starts as favourite to win the second round ballot after
garnering 47.8 percent against Mugabe's 43.2 percent in the first round
election. But analysts say violence and intimidation against opposition
supporters could effectively alter the political balance to deliver victory
to Mugabe in June. – ZimOnline

Zimbabwe faces growing risk of military coup

Zim Online

by Jameson Mombe Wednesday 21 May 2008

JOHANNESBURG – There is an increasing risk that hardliners in Zimbabwe’s
military could seize power in a bid to forestall opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai from toppling embattled President Robert Mugabe’s government, an
international political think tank said on Wednesday.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its latest report on
Zimbabwe that Mugabe would be almost certainly defeated in a “reasonably
free and fair” run-off presidential election next month.

But the ICG warned that hardliners in Mugabe’s ruling ZANU PF party
and the military who are behind the political violence that has rocked
Zimbabwe over the past two months were “trying to retain power by force.”

"There is growing risk of a coup either before a run-off or after a
Tsvangirai win," the ICG said in the report titled: Negotiating Zimbabwe’s
Transition.

The Brussels-based ICG is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental
organisation covering over 50 crisis-affected countries and territories
across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level
advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

The group said worsening political violence in Zimbabwe precluded a
free and fair second presidential poll, adding that the best way to resolve
the southern African nation’s election crisis was through African mediation
leading to a national unity government led by Tsvangirai and including
moderates from ZANU PF.

 “Given the level of violence, there seems almost no way to hold a
credible second-round vote”, says Francois Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa
Programme Director. “All parties should still aim for this in the best
conditions possible, but a negotiated solution between ZANU-PF and the MDC
should be the higher priority, since it is far likelier to resolve the
crisis peacefully.”

The ICG said if it was impossible to avoid a run-off poll – which is a
requirement under Zimbabwe’s electoral law – then the regional Southern
African Development Community (SADC), African Union and the United Nations
should immediately deploy monitors in the country to stop political
violence.

The think tank criticised President Thabo Mbeki, SADC’s mediator in
Zimbabwe, for the South African leader’s failure to criticise Mugabe or
condemn the post-election violence in Zimbabwe.

However, it said the South African leader remained vital to any
mediation effort in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe holds a second presidential election on June 27 after
electoral authorities said Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe in a March 29 election
but failed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote required to takeover
the presidency.

The MDC – which claims that the army is plotting to assassinate
Tsvangirai – has accused Mugabe of unleashing state security forces and ZANU
PF militias to wage violence against the opposition party’s supporters and
structures in an attempt to regain the upper hand in the second ballot.

The opposition party says that at least 43 of its members have been
killed in political violence over the past two months while several
thousands more had been displaced from their homes. – ZimOnline.