Mbeki team in top-level Zimbabwe poll talks

Business Day

07 May 2008

Dumisani Muleya

Harare Correspondent

A TOP-level delegation led by Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi met
President Robert Mugabe, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) this week to discuss the
runoff vote for president. It is the strongest indication yet that President
Thabo Mbeki is continuing as a mediator in Zimbabwe, despite the MDC
demanding his withdrawal.

Presidential spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga would not comment last night on
whether or not a South African government delegation visited Harare this
week.

“The mediation process under the SADC (Southern African Development
Community) and President Mbeki continues,” he said. All parties understood
that mediation “cannot be done in the public spotlight”.

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai — who received more votes than Mugabe at the
presidential polls on March 29 but not enough to avoid a runoff — last month
asked the SADC to withdraw Mbeki as mediator and replace him with a special
envoy.

Sources in Harare said the Mbeki emissaries met Mugabe and ZEC officials to
find out about the date of, and preparations for, the runoff election.

The ZEC failed to announce results for the presidential poll for over a
month. Mugabe had insisted on a recount of votes, which did not reverse his
defeat.

The government and the ZEC do not have the money and logistical capacity for
another poll. The schools used as polling stations and teachers who acted as
polling agents are not available as they are now working.

It is understood that while their meeting with Mugabe went well, the SA
delegation had problems with MDC leaders because the party has already said
it no longer trusted Mbeki as an honest broker.

The SADC has not acceded to the MDC’s request to remove Mbeki, while African
National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma has said the mediation team
should be broadened.

The bitter fallout between Mbeki and the MDC started last year when Mbeki
said dialogue between it and the ruling Zanu (PF) had succeeded, while the
opposition thought it had failed.

Mbeki’s view was that the parties had reached a “substantive agreement” on
all main issues and this was a step forward, although implementation was not
done.

The MDC said the talks were a failure because they did not achieve their
main objectives of a new constitution and postponement of the elections from
March to June.

On January 15, Mbeki met Mugabe and Tsvangirai in Harare but failed to break
the deadlock. Between January 17 and 29, Mbeki tried in vain to persuade
Mugabe to meet Tsvangirai to resolve the issues.

In February Mbeki emissaries again met separately with the two parties’
negotiating teams, but that did not help as Mugabe had already proclaimed
the election date on January 25, effectively sabotaging the talks.

Mbeki’s team raised concerns this week about political violence and
indicated that reports of state-sponsored brutality and murders would be
investigated. Mugabe is understood to have denied such allegations and to
have claimed that the MDC was perpetrating the violence. He also complained
that the MDC and western powers were behind a “regime-change plot” in
Harare.

Mugabe believes he and his party lost the elections because the electoral
process was flawed and that the ZEC officials were bribed by the MDC and
western countries. He also believes he lost because nongovernmental
organisations and chiefs were part of an MDC campaign to get rid of him.
Mugabe has accused the MDC of getting election funding from the UK, the US
and Australia.

Mbeki told African religious leaders last week he would send a team to
Zimbabwe to investigate cases of political violence and killings. He is said
to be doing this to ensure Tsvangirai agreed to contest the runoff.

Church leaders in Zimbabwe have said the runoff would worsen violence and
that a negotiated settlement was needed.

Mbeki’s envoys also discussed the possibility of a government of national
unity or a transitional arrangement. Mugabe and his party are not rigidly
opposed to this, and the MDC is also amenable to it.

Although Tsvangirai, now based in SA and Botswana, has not yet announced his
decision on the runoff, MDC insiders say he would participate provided the
violence and killings stop, that the environment is conducive for free and
fair elections and that results are announced within 48 hours. The MDC also
wants assurances that Mugabe would accept defeat if he loses.

Yesterday the ANC called on Tsvangirai to participate in the runoff. “While
we cannot tell the MDC what to do, if it does not participate it will
basically hand the election outcome to Mugabe on a platter,” said ANC
secretary-general Gwede Mantashe. With Karima Brown

AU seeks common line on Zimbabwe

Business Day

07 May 2008

Foreign Staff

HARARE — African Union (AU) foreign ministers held an emergency meeting on
Zimbabwe in Tanzania yesterday, as church and opposition groups in the
country said at least eight more people had been killed and scores beaten or
threatened in post-election violence.

AU commission chairman Jean Ping met Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and
Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) officials on Monday, as a South African
delegation headed by Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi,
director-general in the Presidency the Rev Frank Chikane, and presidential
legal adviser Mojanku Gumbi, were in Harare to meet Mugabe.

Ping was expected to report back on those talks in Tanzania yesterday.
According to some reports, the foreign ministers were to consider a unified
position on a likely presidential runoff.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday he was in talks
with African states about how the UN could help ensure an election run-off
in Zimbabwe was credible, and voiced concern at growing violence.

Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the most votes in the presidential
election, and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won majorities in
both houses of parliament. The ZEC said Tsvangirai won 47,9%, Mugabe 43,2%,
Simba Makoni 8,3% and Langton Towungana 0,6%. The MDC says its candidate won
50,3%, enough to avoid a runoff.

Mugabe has said he will stand in a runoff but Tsvangirai, who is now based
in SA and Botswana, has not committed to the contest.

The MDC said at the weekend it was discussing the conditions under which it
could take part in a second round.

Church groups and the opposition said they had confirmation that eight more
MDC supporters had been “beaten to death in the past 48 hours”.

Police were said to have stopped a truck ferrying 30 injured supporters, who
had been beaten allegedly by militia in camouflage uniforms, to clinics, and
had impounded the truck. The MDC says at least 20 of its supporters have
been killed since the March 29 elections.

Church groups released a report yesterday detailing scores of beatings,
arbitrary arrests, loss of jobs and death threats made against MDC
supporters. The group blames Zanu (PF) officials, youth militia, and war
veterans.

Farm invasions were also continuing. A Nymandlovhu farm was under siege
yesterday.

The MDC also said yesterday police had arrested 59 of its supporters in
Bulawayo. The arrests in the country’s second-biggest city followed
allegations of MDC violence by senior Zanu (PF) party official Emmerson
Mnangagwa. Mnangagwa, who was Mugabe’s election agent, has said the
opposition is using armed gangs to intimidate Zanu (PF) supporters.

MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said no member of his party was armed, and that
its members were the victims of rising violence.

Zimbabwe’s ruling party called on its supporters to refrain from violence in
the second round of voting. Zanu (PF)’s Nathan Shamuyarira was quoted by the
state-run Herald as saying: “We are urging our people to campaign
peacefully. We are also urging the opposition to avoid violence.”

A Chinese ship carrying arms for Zimbabwe unloaded cargo in Angola after
Luanda had indicated that the vessel would be allowed to unload only cargo
destined for that country. A court order had blocked the weapons from being
unloaded in Durban. With Bloomberg, Reuters and ZimOnline.

Gukurahundi by any other name

Poll watchdog urges police to curb violence

By Our Correspondent

BULAWAYO, May 7, 2008 (thezimbabwetimes.com) - The Zimbabwe Election Support
Network (ZESN), an independent electoral watchdog, has said the police must
stamp out politically violence, which is raging in some rural areas
countrywide.

The call comes as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which now
controls Parliament following the March 29 elections, accused the police,
the military and Zanu –PF members, of assaulting and kidnapping its
supporters in rural areas.

At least 20 MDC supporters have reportedly perished at the hands of Zanu-PF
gangs while more than 5 000 have been displaced from their homes in the
post-election mayhem.
Teachers working in rural schools have been prime targets of the wave of
violence, according to the Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ).
Some schools have remained closed at the start of the second term last week
as teachers have fled from marauding Zanu-PF militants.
“ZESN calls for zero tolerance on the prevailing political violence,” said
ZESN chairman, Noel Kutukwa.
“We call upon political leaders to denounce political violence publicly.
Furthermore ZESN urges the police to act swiftly and decisivelyin dealing
with the perpetrators in accordance with the law. It is essential that the
conditions prevailing prior to the March 29 poll should serve as minimum
requirements for this (run-off) election.”
According to the result issued by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC),
neither of the two leading presidential candidates, President Robert Mugabe
of Zanu-PF or Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC, won more than 50 percent of the
valid vote required to be able to form a government.
But Tsvangirai beat Mugabe after he secured 47, 9 percent to the incumbent’s
43,2 percent. Independents, Simba Makoni and Langton Towungana scored 8.3
percent and 0,6 percent of the poll respectively.
This means, in terms of the Constitution, that a run-off election should be
conducted between Mugabe and Tsvangirai at a date yet to be fixed by ZEC.
However, Tsvangirai has rejected the results saying he won outright. The MDC
is still to decide whether or not to participate in the second round.
Tsvangirai has, however, been reported as having said that a decision had
been made but would be only announced once ZEC makesa catergorical statement
on the timing of the run-off.
“This is a clear circumstance,” said Kutukwa of the run-off, “that will
necessitate an electoral run-off in terms of Section 110 of the Electoral
Act. We urge the ZEC to ensure that said run-off is undertaken within 21
days as is outlined by the Electoral Act.
“The law provides that where two or more candidates are nominated and no
candidate receives a majority of the total number of valid votes cast, a
second election must be held within 21 days.”
He said the Southern African Development Community (SADC) principles and
guidelines on democratic elections must be adhered to during the run-off.
Kutukwa said that all the observers who were in the country for the March 29
poll must be invited back for the second election. He said his organisation
was looking forward to observing the run-off and would continue deploying
its long-term and short-term observers countrywide.
Kutukwa warned Mugabe against using presidential powers to tamper with
electoral laws.
Kutukwa said ZEC must make announcements in good time on the numbers and
distribution of postal ballots, the number of registered voters per
constituency and the location of tabulation centres.
ZESN also insisted on the provision of a list of polling stations and exact
details of procedures such as the verification and tabulation of results as
well as the flow of information from the polling station to the national
level.
“Results should also be released in a timely, transparent and accountable
manner as this will definitely help reduce tensions following any election,”
said Kutukwa.
The MDC has set four preconditions on which it would take part in the
run-off. They include the announcement of the result within 48 hours after
polling and the presence of international observers.
The party also wants SADC to verify the presidential election result
announced by ZEC and for Zanu-PF to stop violence against MDC supporters.

Politically Motivated Attack On Zimbabwean Villagers Said To Leave 11 Dead

VOA

By Jonga Kandemiiri and Blessing Zulu
Washington
06 May 2008

Post-election violence in Zimbabwe intensified late Monday as soldiers and
self-styled liberation war veterans attacked four villages near Chiweshe in
the constituency of Mazowe North, Mashonaland Central Province, killing 11
people and leaving more than 20 others seriously injured, according to
opposition sources.

These sources said the attackers were led by a recently elected member of
parliament for the ZANU-PF party of President Robert Mugabe, Cairo Mhandu, a
recently retired soldier. Sources informed on conditions in Chiweshe said
soldiers continued to go door-to-door in the area on Tuesday beating
suspected opposition members.

Similar attacks were said to have taken place in the Shamva North and Mount
Darwin East constituencies, also in Mashonaland Central. VOA was unable to
confirm reports of eight deaths in Shamva North from attacks on members of
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which posted major gains in
elections March 29.

In the Maramba-Pfungwe constituency of Mashonaland East, a mother was said
to have collapsed and died on Monday as she watched ruling party militia
members beat her son. In Hwedza, Mashonaland East, activists were severely
beaten at Mwai Farm and the ZANU-PF militia was said to be denying them
access to medical attention.

Sources said soldiers and militia members were torturing opposition
supporters at the Nembudziya business center in Masvingo Province, where a
camp has been set up.

Reporter Jonga Kandemiiri of VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe reached MDC member
Gilbert Kagodora who said he was on his way to Chinehasha village near
Chiweshe to remove three bodies from homes there and to evacuate the
injured. In an interview he confirmed that a total of 11 people had died in
the violence around Chiweshe.

Senior members of the army and war veterans were warning, meanwhile, that
the violence is set to escalate. These sources said members of the army and
war veterans have established camps on farms to train ZANU-PF youth in
military tactics.

Such camps have been set up in Murewa and Mutoko in Mashonaland East and
Shamva in Mashonaland Central. Army sources said top army and police
officials in the past week have been moving from one camp to another telling
junior officers to be ready to defend Zimbabwe against the allegedly
Western-backed opposition.

Sources told VOA that such an indoctrination team was in Gweru, capital of
Midlands Province, on Tuesday. Army sources said most of the soldiers
deployed to date have carried out reconnaissance and more will be fielded
before the presidential run-off election the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission
has called without setting a date.

Spokesman Nelson Chamisa of the Movement for Democratic Change formation of
first-round front-runner Morgan Tsvangirai told VOA that the opposition
knows about the camps and would issue a statement about them on Wednesday.

Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association Chairman Jabulani
Sibanda told VOA's Blessing Zulu that his organization is not involved in
such operations.

The Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum released a report on political violence
on Tuesday, charging that ZANU-PF has mounted a “countrywide terror
 campaign” which mainly targets rural dwellers thought to have voted for the
opposition.

It said a “substantial number of senior army officers are the main
organizers of this campaign,” and war veterans and youth militia members are
“the main instruments of terror.” Local ZANU-PF party organizations are also
involved, the group said.

The report said the terror campaign is intended to  “ensure that in the
event of a run-off in the presidential election people will be too
frightened to vote for the opposition.”

The Human Rights NGO Forum said that between election day on March 29 and
April 18, 323 “casualties of post-election retribution” had been examined
and treated, and that 18 people remained hospitalized with fractures and
soft tissue injuries.

MDC death toll reaches 25

politicsweb, SA

Movement for Democratic Change
07 May 2008

Statement issued by Movement for Democratic Change May 6 2008.

Five more MDC activists murdered by Zanu PF - toll reaches 25

Five more MDC activists have been murdered following heavy attacks by the
Zanu PF militia bringing the total number of killed party supporters to 25
since the 29 March elections.

However, the cases might be higher as some of the deaths are going
unreported as the families of the deceased fear further retribution from the
illegal Zanu PF regime.

Tawanda Meda, Joseph Maguranhende and Alex Chiriseri all of Nehasha village
in Chiweshe communal lands, Mashonaland Central province were beaten to
death by Zanu PF supporters who were accompanied by men in army uniforms on
5 May 2008.

Meda, 28, was an MDC polling agent in Mazowe North constituency and died on
the spot after being severely attacked.

Maguranhende and Chiriseri were also attacked in the same manner.

Police were notified about the attacks and the attackers have been
identified but no action has been taken.

Other villagers also sustained serious injuries and several of them are
receiving treatment while others have fled their homes and have sought
shelter in the mountains.

In Kotwa, Mudzi, Gilbert Nyagupe a well known activist from Nyagupe village
was axed to death by Zanu PF youth militia and one of the assailants was
identified as Jessie Nau.

In another shocking incident, Catherine Makwenjere of Mwenezi died on 29
April at Morgenster Hospital in Masvingo after she had been assaulted by
Zanu PF supporters for voting and supporting the MDC.

The continued assault and destruction of people's property by Zanu PF on
accusations that they voted for the MDC in the last elections is a desperate
attempt by the party to cling on to power despite clear evidence that the
people of Zimbabwe have rejected Zanu PF after they voted for change and
jobs in March.

The Zanu PF thugs are also confiscating national identity cards of people
perceived to be MDC activists in an attempt that these people will not vote
in the event of a runoff in the presidential election.

At least 33 families at Vine Farm in Mutorangashanga, Mashonaland West, were
evicted from their homes on Monday 5 May after being accused of voting for
the MDC.

During the evictions everyone above the age of 18 years had his or her
identity document confiscated by the Zanu PF militia.

Villagers at Nehasha and Garande villages in Chiweshe fled their homes early
this morning after two Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) truck loads of descended
in the area and threatening to kill everyone who is perceived to be of the
MDC.

Meanwhile, the MDC parliamentray candidate for Chakari, Moscow Chabvamuperu
was left for dead after he was attacked by over 20 armed Zanu PF thugs and
people claiming to be war veterans at his home on Sunday.

He is battling for his life at Kadoma General Hospital where he is in the
intensive care unit.

Statement issued by the Movement for Democratic Change May 6 2008

GCB condemns SADC and AU silence over Zimbabwe

politicsweb, SA

The General Council of the Bar of South Africa
07 May 2008

Statement issued by General Council of the Bar May 6 2008.

The General Council of the Bar of South Africa (GCB) notes the compelling
evidence of orchestrated and brutal political intimidation that has targeted
supporters, and in particular organisers, of the party that has
democratically come into power.

As a body committed to upholding the rule of law and human rights, we are
concerned that the African Union and the SADC leaders have failed to speak
out and condemn the serious repression of human rights perpetrated by
President Mugabe's regime against citizens of Zimbabwe who exercised their
basic democratic right to vote for change.

The serious human rights abuses in Zimbabwe do not make it possible for
people to freely exercise their right to vote in any presidential election
re-run.

It is essential that the rule of law be restored and that an environment be
established free from fear and intimidation before Zimbabweans can be
expected to again exercise their right to vote.

There can be no democratically competent election re-run without ensuring
beforehand that repression, intimidation and fear of reprisals ends, and is
seen to end. It is essential therefor that a level playing field be secured
now.

Accordingly, in our view, the provisions of the African Charter to which
Zimbabwe is a signatory, can only be respected if there is freedom from fear
at the ballot box, secured in advance both by a UN endorsed international
arms embargo and guarantees being secured from President Mugabe to the
African Union or to the world body ensuring that intimidation in whatever
form ends and guaranteeing the free movement of and access by truly
independent observers appointed by the UN in consultation with the African
Union as from now until the announcement of the successful presidential
candidate.

J W Eksteen, S.C.
Chairman General Council of the Bar of South Africa

B S Spilg SC
Convenor: Human Rights Committee

Issued by the General Council of the Bar of South Africa, Johannesburg, May
6 2008

Ndlovu threatens harsher measures against media

The Zimbabwe Times

By Our Correspondent

BULAWAYO, May 7, 2008 (thezimbabwetimes.com) - Zimbabwe’s Information
Minister, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, has said the government is plans to tighten
controls on the media further, while limiting the accreditation of foreign
journalists ahead of the expected run-off presidential election.

He said foreign journalists who were accredited to cover the March 29
elections had undermined the controversial polls through their coverage.

Ndlovu said the foreign journalists had filed “hostile coverage” and the
government will use such coverage as the criterion to deny foreign
journalists accreditation to cover the expected run-off.

He was responding to questions from journalists on whether the government
would widen the accreditation of foreign journalists to cover the second
round of the presidential election. Ndlovu spoke during World Press Freedom
Day celebrations at the Bulawayo Press Club on Saturday evening.

“The government will be tighter and tougher this time in the accreditation
of foreign journalists for the up-coming run-off,” Ndlovu said. “Most of the
foreign journalists who were accredited to cover the March 29 elections had
pre-conceived agendas.

“They had a specific purpose and came to the country to undermine the
elections. The government can run the elections without them and the
government will not make such a mistake when looking at their applications
to cover the run-off. Foreign media that provided hostile coverage and
undermined the elections will not be accredited again to cover the run-off.”

Zimbabwean authorities barred most foreign media from covering the March 29
elections and warned that they would deal severely with journalists who
sneaked into the country to report illegally.

A number of foreign journalists did sneak into the country but the risks
involved were highlighted when some of them were arrested.

Among those arrested were New York Times correspondent, Barry Bearak,
British journalist Stephen Bevan, Times of London journalists, Michael
Clayton and two South African satellite television technicians, Sipho Maseko
and Abdulla Gaibee.

Ndlovu defended the ongoing arrest of freelance Zimbabwean journalists and
said the government would continue to maintain its tight grip on the media
through harsh media laws “to instill discipline among journalists”.

Ndlovu’s growing hard-line stance appears to be motivated by a need to keep
abreast of his confrontational deputy, Bright Matonga, who over recent weeks
has become the darling of the foreign correspondents, who seek his opinion
as Zanu-PF spokesman, which he is not and as government spokesman, which
officially he also is not.

That has not deterred Matonga from being the self-appointed defender of the
beleaguered Mugabe regime or from issuing threats against the victorious MDC
since Zanu-PF and President Mugabe lost the March elections. Apparently, not
to be outdone by the youthful Matonga, Ndlovu, once hailed as a reasonable
Minister of Information, used the occasion of the Press Freedom Day
celebrations in Bulawayo to issue his own threats again journalists local
and foreign.

Ndlovu is said to be the patron of the Bulawayo Press Club whose executive
committee comprises journalists from the state-controlled media. He is a
regular guest of honour at the club, where he is reputed to make the
occasional generous donation.

On Friday was requested to leave a World Press Freedom day function
organised by private media journalists in Bulawayo. Ndlovu who presented
himself at the function as the patron of the Bulawayo Club was requested to
leave before he addressed journalists. The function had been organised by
the Zimbabwe chapter of the Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA), which
is in the forefront of campaigning for press freedom and media diversity in
Zimbabwe.

“There is nothing like absolute freedom in journalism,” Ndlovu said, once
safely ensconced in the premises of the Bulawayo Press Club on Saturday.

“There has to be censorship by the government to instill responsible
journalism. Some journalists break the law under the guise of press freedom
and get arrested. Some journalists for example in the private media are
undisciplined and stubborn. That is why they get arrested.”

Away from the Press Club Zimbabwean journalists called for more media
freedom during the World Press Day celebrations. The key issues raised were
the repeal of repressive media laws, radical media reforms and an end to the
use of “inflammatory messages and hate language” mostly in the
state-controlled media.

Zimbabwe has some of the toughest media laws and a terrible record of
harassment of journalists and repression of the media.

Some of the hostile laws include the Access to Information and Protection of
Privacy Act (AIPPA), the Interception of Communications Act, the
Broadcasting Services Act, the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act,
Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and the Censorship and Control of
Entertainment Act..

Women face violence on our streets

Zimbabwe Today

The violent end to a peaceful demonstration by Zimbabwe's women

Harare, Zimbabwe, May 6

Yesterday I stood in the streets of Bulawayo and watched Mugabe's riot
police launch a savage attack on a peaceful demonstration by the women's
civic organisation, Women of Zimbabwe Arise (WOZA).

Some hundreds of WOZA members had gathered to march in protest at the
politically motivated violence which has left more than 20 supporters of the
opposition MDC dead and hundreds injured and homeless. Their intention was
to march to the High Court with a demand that the election by a clear
majority of MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai as President be declared official.

Before the march could begin a police riot squad arrived on the scene and
began attacking the demonstrators, mostly women and children, with batons.
Several arrests were made, and many injuries suffered. But worse was to
come.

I followed the survivors of the attack to St. Mary's Cathedral, where they
regrouped, and finally began the march. They marched in silence for four
blocks, but were intercepted by uniformed police one block from the High
Court.

The WOZA national coordinator, Jenni Williams, took part in a discussion
with the senior officer present, then began asking her demonstrators to
disperse peacefully. At this point two truckoads of riot police, most of
them believed to be either members of the notorious Police Reaction Group or
a paramilitary Support Unit, drove up.

The police in one vehicle got out and began indiscriminately beating the
women. The second truck, a Mazda with number NRP 3039 M, drove deliberately
into the back of the crowd, knocking over several demonstrators.

Jenni Williams herself was beaten on the street, then thrown into one of the
trucks where she was beaten again. The truck number was ZRP 2030 M. She and
12 other members of WOZA were arrested, and released later in the day.

Two other WOZA members went missing at this time, and so far their fate is
unknown. They are believed to have been taken to a Support Unit base on the
outskirts of the city. It is easy to imagine the treatment they are
suffering.

Posted on Tuesday, 06 May 2008 at 17:01

Zimbabweans head to 'poor relation' Mozambique after meltdown

AFP

32 minutes ago

MANICA, Mozambique (AFP) — Taurai Chimombe queues up patiently for the
chance to land a job as a mineworker in Mozambique -- a far cry from his
dreams of running his own business back home in his Zimbabwean homeland.

"As long as I've got a contract I will be here," says the 24-year-old.

"We have suffered so much thinking the situation would improve but there is
no hope right now."

When Chimombe was growing up in the eastern Zimbabwean city of Mutare,
neighbouring Mozambique was seen as a poor relation, synonymous with poverty
and misery as a result of a civil war which raged from independence in 1976
until 1992.

Zimbabwe by contrast was seen in the first decade and a half after
independence in 1980 as a regional model, with its citizens enjoying a
standard of living envied by all of its neighbours.

Now the fate of the nations has been well and truly reversed with Zimbabwe
racked by an inflation rate of 165,000 percent -- the highest in the
world -- and an unemployment rate of around 80 percent.

Chimombe initially enrolled for a course in Mutare as a trainee mechanic but
he later decided to drop out of college after deciding there was little
prospect of landing work at the end.

"I just heard from my friends that it is easier to get a job in Mozambique
especially if you can speak English," said Chimombe.

In the past, it was Mozambicans who used to walk across the border to
Zimbabwe in order to shield themselves from gunfire and look for food after
thousands were displaced by the guerrilla war that ended in 1992.

Nowadays hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans are believed to be in
Mozambique, although exact numbers are impossible to quantify as many only
stay only a few weeks at a time to to earn money before heading back home.

Eduardo Koloma, the Mozambican deputy foreign minister, said there was no
question of trying to close the border to Zimbabwe.

"We have a lot of Zimbabweans entering the country, some settling in the
country while others come in search of jobs," Koloma told AFP. "We cannot
close our borders, our people interact so much."

Mozambique's Manica town is a favourite destination for Zimbabweans because
of the common language -- Shona -- which both groups often use in preference
to their official languages of English and Portuguese.

The two groups also share the same culture.

"Most people understand the situation of the Zimbabweans and this has
resulted in people interacting without problems," said Isabel da Melucha
Luis, a 20-year Mozambican student who lives in Manica.

"They are our brothers, we depend on each other," said Armando Julio, a
police officer, who refused to call them Zimbabweans refugees.

Most of the Zimbabweans are illegal immigrants who have either overstayed
their visas or entered the country without documentation.

Immigration department estimates an average of 400 Zimbabweans who pass
through the border on a daily basis either to buy food or look for jobs.

"The numbers have steadily gone up after the March 29 elections...," one
immigration official said, putting the latest figure on above 500 per day.

Simon Mutasa, a teacher from Mutare, about 20 kilometres (12.5 miles) east
of the border into Mozambique, says he crosses over every weekend to sell
old newspapers, used by vendors to wrap their products.

"I do not make a lot of money from selling the old newspapers but it keeps
me going until the end of the month," said Mutasa as he balances two bags
laden with old newspapers at Machipanda border post.

While the Zimbabwean economic crisis has managed to put smiles on Mozambican
traders in the Manica town, local residents are wary that the increase in
price of basic food products could lead to a food crisis.

"Prices of products such as rice and cooking oil have almost doubled since
the end of March as more Zimbabweans come here seeking to buy stuffs," said
Pedro Dias, a taxi driver opening in Manica.

In 1983, at the height of Mozambique's civil war, there was a widespread
food crisis which swept throughout the country and those who had enough
money resorted to buying basic food stuffs from South Africa and Zimbabwe.

"But this time the difference will be that food will be available in the
market and people cannot afford the price," Dias said.

In addition to those in Mozambique, it is estimated that about three million
Zimbabweans have left the economic meltdown in their homeland, most of whom
have crossed into neighbouring South Africa, Botswana and Zambia.

Some Zimbabweans Said to be Unhappy With Opposition MDC

VOA

By Peter Clottey
Washington, D.C.
07 May 2008

Some Zimbabweans are reportedly upset with the main opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) for what they say is the opposition’s failure to
protect their vote in the March 29 elections. According to presidential vote
results released last week by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), a
runoff was necessary because no candidate won an outright majority. Some
political analyst say although the MDC has been seen as fighting to protect
the vote of its supporters, many see the party’s fight as lame because it is
unable to seriously challenge the 28 year rule of incumbent President Robert
Mugabe.

Glen Mpani is a Zimbabwean political analyst with the University of Cape
Town in South Africa. He tells reporter Peter Clottey from the capital,
Pretoria that Zimbabweans will reject outright the Mugabe regime in a
run-off.

“Zimbabweans are disappointed with what transpired after the general
elections where the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai won the presidential election
and the result of the parliamentary election. But I think the way the whole
process was handled, Zimbabweans in general are quite despondent, and they
are quite disappointed and they are dejected and they have lost confidence
in the whole electoral process. Despite some evidence of excitement in other
quarters that the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections
reflects that despite that the electoral process might be skewed in favor of
ZANU-PF they can be able to salvage the victory in an environment that is
partisan and biased towards to ZANU-PF ruling government,” Mpani pointed
out.

He reckoned that he understands the frustrations some Zimbabweans are
expressing about the opposition MDC.

“After any process, people trade accusations and they go through a process
of critiquing the process. I think those comments should be taken as valid
and should be seen as comments that can aid in any future process that the
MDC would like to be engaged in,” he said.

Mpani called on partisans of the opposition MDC to support the opposition in
its fight to protect their vote.

“But we need to go back and ask ourselves who is the MDC? The MDC is not
Morgan Tsvangirai; the MDC is not Tendai Bitti. They are the leadership. And
each and everyone who voted should be pushing their leadership to say this
is what we should be doing because if the leadership call to say lets do
this and there is very little response, there is nothing that the leadership
can do without their followers. So, each and everyone should hold themselves
responsible for not having done enough to protect their vote,” Mpani noted.

He said the ruling party would make sure it does everything possible to win
the run-of election with or without the opposition participation.

“ZANU-PF has put all indications in the open that they want a predetermined
result to ensure that they are going to win. That is why they are beating up
supporters they are beating up election observers and they are beating up
electoral officials. All these are being done to ensure that they create an
environment where they emerge as the winner. That is why the MDC has been
saying that the environment does not allow for free and fair election,” he
said.

Mpani said there seems to be a ray of hope that Zimbabweans would massively
vote against the ruling party again.

“I am convinced that despite all those serious setbacks, despite the fear,
the intimidation, and the violence that is within the country, Zimbabweans
have reached that point where if another election is announced they are
going to go again and express more revulsion of the way they have been
governed and the way they have been treated because for them an election is
the only avenue that they can be able to show that they are disappointed
with this regime,” Mpani said.

Meanwhile, the ruling ZANU-PF party says it is continuing with its campaign
with the priority to win the run-off.

Accounts detail Zimbabwe violence

22:26 GMT, Tuesday, 6 May 2008 23:26 UK

Zimbabwe's opposition has charged President Robert Mugabe's government with sponsoring a campaign of violent intimidation against its supporters ahead of a run-off presidential vote. The BBC is banned from Zimbabwe, but our correspondent Orla Guerin has been undercover in rural Zimbabwe and gathered detailed accounts from village elders, members of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and victims of violence. Much of what is happening here is hidden from view, but we travelled deep into the rural areas to learn about the mechanics of the campaign. Zanu-PF groups are accused of destroying MDC supporters' property At a remote homestead in an opposition stronghold, village elders described the command structure in their area. We have decided not to reveal their names or their location. They told us the operation was run by officials from the ruling Zanu-PF party, and so-called war veterans, with the help of a senior army officer. The intimidation began at the top, with local chiefs, who then passed instructions down to village elders. "The chief's headman told us the message from Zanu was go and tell the people to vote for the president," a village elder said. "If you don't, you will see what will happen to you." This man knows only too well what to expect come election time. He says his home was torched and his wife was beaten back in 2002. Hint of desperation At meetings called by the ruling party and its henchmen, explicit threats were made, according to an opposition councillor. "They told us that if President Mugabe lost in the run-off, there would be war," he said. "They said what happened during the war of liberation would happen again. There would be a second round of that." MDC supporters say they have been attacked by Zanu-PF supporters But mixed with the threats was more than a hint of desperation. "They said 'we are begging you to vote for Zanu, in the name of Jesus'." These accounts are consistent with reports from elsewhere. There is a systematic attempt under way to change the political landscape. The aim is electoral cleansing - to drive opposition supporters from their voting areas, or make them too afraid to vote for the MDC again. The local leaders we met said it would not work in their area because their people would not bow to intimidation. "The people themselves say they will vote for the opposition, no matter what Zanu does, even if it means them dying," said one elder. Harvest of fear But there is another weapon in this campaign - hunger. The leaders showed us their empty grain store, and gave us a tour of their fields of withered corn. They desperately need maize, but say they cannot get it without a party card - another way the opposition is being weakened before a second round. While the MDC supporters in this homestead may be determined to fight on, in others areas there is a new harvest of fear. Arson attacks, beatings, and killings have driven many opposition supporters into hiding. No one knows how many, but the number could be as high as 1,500. In some cases they have been forced to take refuge in the bush. "We sleep in the maize fields because we know there's trouble ahead and we are very scared," said an MDC organiser. "In the eyes of the ruling party it's a crime to vote for the MDC. They said they had taken control of the area by force in the past, and that was how it would stay." An elderly relative who fled with her said that war veterans had threatened to burn any villages that voted for the MDC for a second time. Human rights activists in Zimbabwe fear the campaign of intimidation is working only too well. The say the ruling party has learnt lessons from the past. This time it is being more subtle. They say it is "choosing easy prey" - beating people who are not in the public eye.

Coalition to protect Zimbabwe

Jakarta Post
Opinion May 07, 2008

Desmond Tutu and Aryeh Neier, Johannesburg

Although the Chinese ship that was carrying arms to Zimbabwe,
the An Yue Jiang, has reportedly turned back, we don't know where else
President Robert Mugabe's military and paramilitary forces may be acquiring
weapons.

In light of the escalating violent repression of the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and of those whose support apparently
helped the MDC to prevail in the presidential election, the results of which
have still not been announced after four weeks an international arms embargo
on Zimbabwe is urgently needed.

In addition, we call on the African Union, with the support of
the United Nations, to send an investigative mission to Zimbabwe to
determine what additional measures may be required to carry out the
internationally accepted responsibility to protect.

The concept of the responsibility to protect was adopted
unanimously by the UN World Summit in 2005. Yet, it remains controversial
because it is often assumed that it implies the use of military force for
purposes of humanitarian intervention. We believe, as was recognized at the
UN World Summit, that military force should only be a last resort when
needed to prevent or halt large-scale loss of life. The first step is to
gather reliable information so that it is possible to know what
international measures are required to prevent a disaster.

In the case of Zimbabwe, it is extremely difficult to obtain
such information. Mugabe's regime has systematically shut down independent
media, attacked independent civil society organizations, denied visas to
foreign journalists, and has arrested and beaten journalists who
nevertheless enter the country.

Foreign observers were present when the voting took place in
Zimbabwe on March 29, and their presence helped to ensure that the election
itself was peaceful. The observers have long since left the country,
however, and the reports that have filtered out suggest that in some parts
of the country, Mugabes opponents are now experiencing a reign of terror.

The Constitutive Act of the African Union provides in Article 4
the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision
of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes,
genocide, and crimes against humanity (as well as a serious threat to
legitimate order).

Here too, however, actual military intervention should only be a
last resort. In the case of Zimbabwe, for example, it is possible that
sending in unarmed observers from other African countries would be
sufficient. Their presence and ability to provide objective information
might prevent continuation or further escalation of the violence of the last
few weeks to the point where it would require military intervention. Unarmed
observers could also help to ensure that emergency international food
assistance, on which much of Zimbabwe's population now depends for survival,
is distributed equitably, without regard to the political leanings of those
requiring it.

Earlier this year, the African Union, through the good work of
former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, averted a calamity in Kenya after a
disputed election led to widespread violence. The danger in Zimbabwe appears
to be comparable. Once again, the African Union, with the support of the UN,
should provide the leadership that would demonstrate that Africa has the
capacity and the will to resolve a great crisis in a manner that mitigates
the suffering of African people.

Desmond Tutu is a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Aryeh Neier is
President of the Open Society Institute.

Mugabe’s long goodbye has raised new worries about the future of Zimbabwe

icwales

May 7 2008 by Steffan Rhys, Western Mail

As the fallout from Zimbabwe’s disputed presidential election continues with
little end in sight, Prof Paul Moorcraft examines Robert Mugabe – the tyrant
who refuses to relinquish nearly three decades of power

IT WAS his mincing manner that surprised me most. When I first interviewed
Robert Mugabe in January 1980, it seemed odd in a tough guerrilla chieftain.

And his articulate English was slightly contrived; almost perfect BBC. His
intelligence impressed me the most, however.

For four years I had interviewed many black and white political leaders in
the dying Rhodesia. Mugabe was head and shoulders above them all.

Rhodesian propaganda had portrayed this Catholic-trained Marxist as a
bloodthirsty latter-day Hitler.

Whites were preparing for the Beit Bridge 500, the dash for the South
African border, when Mugabe won the election in March 1980. Instead, the
majority stayed, swayed by Mugabe’s clarion call for reconciliation.

Mugabe was the popular son of the masses. Only he could bring peace, and
that is why the majority of Shonas – the name collectively given to several
groups of people in Zimbabwe – voted for him. Nevertheless, his party still
engaged in massive electoral intimidation.

Yet, prefiguring by 14 years the almost saint-like quality of Nelson Mandela’s
magnanimity, the new Zimbabwean president started well.

He appointed a ministry of all the talents, including Rhodesian Front
stalwarts. As a former teacher, Mugabe set about reforming the education
system. Later, he helped to end the civil war in Mozambique.

Had he anticipated Mandela’s style by remaining in office for just one term,
Mugabe’s legacy would have been that of a world-famous statesman. Instead,
in Desmond Tutu’s phrase, he became the caricature of an African despot. So
what went wrong?

He may be bad, but he has never been mad. The idea that absolute power over
28 years, plus senility, caused him eventually to become demented is not
convincing.

Mugabe’s sober and ruthless determination has always been a mark of his
character. He outflanked the original Zanu leader, Ndabaningi Sithole, then
imposed his leadership during the final three years of the liberation war.
Opponents were crushed.

He has displayed a logical consistency in transforming his country. The
white settlers seized the land illegally in the 1890s and thus inspired the
first Chimurenga, or uprising. The second Chimurenga of 1965-79 was based
partly on the historical grievances of the original resistance movements.

After taking power, Mugabe waged a third Chimurenga against all his
perceived enemies: first the Ndebele, then trade unionists, and finally
white farmers and businessmen. Along the way he silenced the churches,
media, judiciary, social activists and the gay and lesbian community.

The greatest alleged crime was committed early in his dictatorship: the
Gukurahundi in Matabeleland in the 1980s. Estimates vary, but at least
10,000 Ndebeles were killed and many more raped, tortured and abducted.

It is true that South African intelligence backed a few hundred dissidents
in the apartheid war of regional destabilisation, but the main reason for
the devastation wrought by Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade was to eradicate the power
base of Joshua Nkomo’s rival Zapu party. Eventually, Nkomo had to sue for
peace, and accept Mugabe’s one-party state. The Zanu (PF) leader stayed in
power by bribing his cronies.

In many African states, the military, rather than the ballot box, had been
the main instrument for leadership change.

This was not possible in Zimbabwe because of a creeping coup. The generals,
police chiefs and the Central Intelligence Organisation had been absorbed
into the inner core of the dictatorship. They would stand and fall with
their boss.

The president doesn’t like being thwarted. Mugabe faced his first loss of
face when he was defeated in a referendum on a draft constitution in 2000.

Blaming whites for supporting the opposition, he encouraged his thugs to
seize white commercial farms, even though many farmers had legal land
rights.

This accelerated the economic meltdown. A few thousand white farmers were
ejected, but hundreds of thousands of farm workers were put out of work.
Agriculture collapsed. Famine meant Mugabe’s henchmen could control the
countryside by centralising the distribution of food.

The cities turned to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan
Tsvangirai. Mugabe’s solution? Bulldoze the urban shantytowns. More than
700,000 lost their homes or livelihoods.

Farming had been destroyed. So had tourism. The final straw was to force
foreign companies, especially mining, to give 51% control to indigenous
black Zimbabweans, effectively a last handout to Mugabe’s cronies.

Under Mugabe, life expectancy has been halved, unemployment reached 80%, and
nearly all whites and more than three million blacks fled the country.

His last throw was simply to print money. The inevitable result was
hyperinflation. The Commonwealth turned its back, largely because of human
rights abuses. And the international financial organisations deserted him.

Some African leaders stood by him out of a misplaced sense of solidarity,
including President Thabo Mbeki, who held the economic levers. Then Jacob
Zuma’s ascendancy spawned a change in the African National Congress.
Tsvangirai became a much more attractive option.

The South African role in Mugabe’s long farewell is still a mystery.

The MDC has said it wants to follow the South African model of
reconciliation, but there may be precious little truth, or justice.
Destroying one’s country with lunatic policies is not a criminal offence,
but crimes against humanity are different.

Liberia’s Charles Taylor ended up in The Hague, but that is a special case.
In theory, the International Criminal Court could try Mugabe for crimes
committed after 2002, in this case the destruction of urban settlements in
2005.

The endgame will be political, not legal. China’s influence in Harare has to
be finessed, and South Africa might have to provide rock-solid amnesties,
probably in-country, not abroad, for Mugabe and his top military and police
enforcers.

It could be a golden – but brief – hour for possible reconstruction. The
United Nations and the International Monetary Fund will promise much, but do
little. All hopes for reconstruction efforts are predicated on Mugabe’s
exit.

If events again turn violent, perhaps the Commonwealth, as it did in 1980,
might just provide a core British-officered monitoring force. It will take
decades to rebuild the three main pillars of the economy: agriculture,
tourism and mining.

Mugabe could have saved something of his reputation had he conceded early
and gone into a dignified retirement.

Instead, he has created massive uncertainty for a transition, which could
yet become a second Kenya. Mugabe’s rule destroyed Zimbabwe. The manner of
his departure might yet disgrace the whole continent.

Prof Moorcraft is the director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Analysis and
a visiting professor at Cardiff University’s School of Journalism. From
Cardiff, he has reported from 30 war zones in 20 years. His new book, The
Rhodesian War, is on sale now. This article first appeared in South African
Business Day.

With Or Without Re-Run, Mugabe's Grip On Power Nearing End

The Nation (Nairobi)

5 May 2008
Posted to the web 5 May 2008

Kitsepile Nyathi
Harare

Even if President Mugabe bludgeons his way into a victory in the runoff he
will find governing during a sixth term untenable, warns Zimbabwean
opposition legislator and legal expert, Mr David Coltart.

He spoke as it finally dawned on election weary Zimbabweans that a second
round of voting was now necessary after the country's electoral body on
Friday announced the long awaited outcome of the March 29 presidential
elections.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) released the results over a month
after the polls were held giving opposition leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai the
lead, but not the simple majority needed to avoid a runoff with Mr Mugabe,
the second-place finisher.

Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) rejected those results
as fraudulent and on Saturday held off a decision on its participation in
the second round.

The opposition has threatened that it will not take part in the runoff
because it believes that it won outright.

Legal experts say the MDC has no option but to contest the runoff, which
must be held after 21 days as a decision not to take part would
automatically hand victory to Mr Mugabe.

Analysts warn the run off will not be a run in the park for the opposition
as evidenced by the current wave of political violence in rural areas that
human rights groups and aid agencies say has killed several people and
forced hundreds to flee their homes. Rights groups and the MDC say the
violence is mainly aimed at opposition activists or people who voted for the
opposition and is designed to intimidate them into voting for Mr Mugabe in a
second round.

But some analysts say if the 84 year old manages to use violence to win the
runoff he would not be able to rule the country with the iron fist that has
characterised his 28 year-old rule.

Mr Coltart who is also the legal affairs secretary of the smaller faction of
the MDC believes the end to Mr Mugabe's tyrannical rule is near regardless
of the outcome of the next round of voting.

He said the veteran ruler's unbridled power had been already been shaken by
the ruling Zanu PF's defeat in parliamentary elections.

The two MDC factions now control parliament with 109 seats against Zanu PF's
97 in the 210 member assembly - the first time the opposition has controlled
parliament since independence.

"The political logjam has been finally broken," Mr Coltart said. "And as is
the case when a logjam is broken on a swollen river it is going to be
tumultuous but Mugabe's dictatorship is coming to an end."

The new balance of power hammered at the watershed polls meant that the
opposition will select a speaker of parliament from its own ranks and for
the first time it is in a position to block any legislation that Mr Mugabe
might try to rail road through the assembly. "He will need us to push
through the national budget for example," Mr Coltart observed.

"Mr Mugabe will also not be able to rule by decree because even legislation
introduced through the notorious Presidential powers must be ratified
through parliament before they come into force.

"That's a harsh legal reality that Mugabe faces even if he tries to rig his
way into a sixth term."

But a more unsettling reality for Zanu PF hardliners who are reportedly
pushing for the second round because they do not want a compromise with the
MDC is that the opposition just needs to find 30 ruling party MPs willing to
impeach Mr Mugabe.

According to Zimbabwe's constitution, a two thirds majority is needed to
impeach the president and this adds up to 140 MPs. Amid growing disaffection
in the ruling party ranks, dramatised by former Finance Minister, Dr Simba
Makoni's decision to run for the presidency in the elections, finding
dissenting MPs in Zanu PF will not be that difficult for the MDC.

Mr Coltart added: "We don't know how many Zanu PF MPs support Makoni or
Tsvangirai so finding the 30 MPs to support the impeachment will not be a
difficult job to do."

Besides, the political intricacies, Mr Mugabe would be confronted by an
inclement economic environment.

With inflation galloping towards 200, 000 per cent and neighbouring South
Africa and Botswana who have been credited with keeping Zimbabwe's already
battered economy limping are showing signs they are no longer prepared to
support an unpopular regime in Harare.

Botswana's new President Seretse Ian Khama has already banned the export of
fuel in bulk by Zimbabwe's informal traders who have kept the troubled
country's cars on the roads since fuel stations ran dry around 2000.

Meanwhile, the MDC is still undecided on whether Tsvangirai will participate
in the runoff. On Saturday it called on the nation's neighbours to verify
the vote count from the first round saying Friday's results were fraudulent.

Brutal campaign

Mr Tsvangirai's deputy Ms Thokozani Khupe said the party still believed a
runoff was unnecessary, maintaining the opposition leader won outright on
March 29.

"We still need to be convinced before we participate in a runoff," Ms Khuphe
said.

International observers have questioned whether a runoff would be
legitimate, given the violence the opposition has faced. The opposition's
top leaders, including secretary general Mr Tendai Biti and Mr Tsvangirai,
have been staying out of Zimbabwe for fear of arrest by security forces who
have vowed that the opposition will rule the country even if it wins
elections.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch said "the ruling ZANU-PF party, the
army and so-called war veterans have conducted a brutal state-sponsored
campaign of violence, torture and intimidation against (opposition)
activists and supporters."

Not guaranteed

But Mr Coltart who led research into the 1980s massacres in southern
Zimbabwe blamed on government forces during the 1980s said despite the
violence Mr Mugabe was not guaranteed of victory.

"I have information from credible sources, a group of doctors which says 600
people have been hospitalised throughout the country because of the ongoing
violence," he said.

"The violence does not guarantee that Mugabe will win the elections because
we have a scenario where in 1985 the people of Matabeleland voted
overwhelmingly for the opposition despite the violence unleashed by the
army." An estimated 20 000 people were killed in Matabeleland and Midlands,
which were opposition strongholds in the 1980 at the hands of the North
Korean trained army unit.

Best hope for Zimbabwe

Post and Courier, Charleston, US

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

The outcome of Zimbabwe's presidential election in March continues to be
mired in controversy. The nation's best hope for stability requires a
closely monitored runoff election, free of violence, in the near future.
Zimbabwe's close neighbors, and the African Union and the United Nations
should insist on this, and refuse to recognize the legitimacy of any other
method of choosing a new government.

Longtime strongman President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party have
refused to concede the loss of the March elections. Instead, the president
and his allies in the security forces and on the national electoral
commission have set up a series of obstacles to prevent the opposition from
taking power. On Friday, the electoral commission announced the results of a
recount of the presidential vote without giving the opposition the
opportunity to review and sign off on the exercise.

As a result, the opposition has rejected the announced results giving their
leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, 47.9 percent of the votes to 43.2 percent for
President Mugabe. It contends Mr. Tsvangirai won outright with more than 50
percent of the vote and should not be forced into the runoff required under
Zimbabwe's constitution.

The opposition demands a second recount which it can verify. It cites a
letter from the official group representing the nations of the region, the
Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), demanding that the electoral
commission give both sides an equal opportunity to review and agree to the
recount.

The Associated Press reports that Mugabe is accused of delaying the official
results — announced five weeks after the election — to give his party and
the security forces time to intimidate opposition party workers and
supporters. The opposition continues to demand a second recount, with the
likely result of more delay in resolving the electoral crisis. A more
practical course for the opposition would be to prepare for an early runoff
held under the right conditions.

Regrettably, Zimbabwe's constitution gives the Electoral Commission, which
is controlled by President Mugabe, plenty of leeway in setting a date for a
runoff election.

Some opposition leaders want Mr. Tsvangirai to boycott a runoff election.
That would be unwise. Under the constitution, the remaining contestant, Mr.
Mugabe, would win by default.

Instead, the opposition should appeal to the SADC, the African Union and the
U.N. Security Council to demand their help in preparing a prompt, safe and
well-monitored runoff, and to seek assurances that they will deny
recognition to any government not selected under those conditions.

Mr. Mugabe may try to obstruct these demands, but he would be writing his
own political obituary.

Zimbabwe: Depositors Resort to Multiple Bank Accounts

This day online

05.06.2008

Depositors have resorted to opening multiple bank accounts to access more
money above the set maximum cash withdrawal limit of $1 billion.
Early in the month, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe increased the maximum cash
withdrawal limit to $1 billion from $500 million with the argument that the
low withdrawal limits would curb illegal dealings in the economy while at
the same time helping the liquidity position to avoid a run on the banks.
However, this amount ($1 billion) is too little given the recent wave of
price increases where lunch in decent eating places ranges between $300
million-$1 billion and the pending school fees payment.
"I have had to open different accounts in company names to get more money
from the bank as the limit is too little given the inflationary pressures,"
said one account holder. However, multiple cardholders have caused long
delays at ATM queues.
Banks have said there is nothing they can do as most of the accounts would
not be in the name of an individual but could be in company names or family
names.
Barclays head of corporate affairs Mrs Valeta Mthimkhulu said bank policy
allows customers to hold a number of accounts under different product types
depending on the purpose for which the accounts will be used, for example,
current account for day-to-day transactions and savings accounts for savings
products.
If any account holder is found to be with two accounts of the same product,
he or she will be given an option to close one account, said an official at
CBZ.
CFX managing director Mr Onesimo Mukumba said opening multiple accounts was
legal be it in company or family names as long as they don’t commit fraud
with the accounts.
Banks have Anti-Money Laundering and Suspicious Transaction Monitoring
systems which monitor the use of the accounts to detect any instances of
abuse.
However, since last year, the RTGS system has been used for illegal foreign
currency deals, which has been better paying than street rates.

Zimbabwe’s inflation hides a few hopes

Financial Times

By David Stevenson

Published: March 5 2008 19:15 | Last updated: March 5 2008 19:15

One of the more surprising investment statistics of last year was that the
Zimbab- wean stock market was the best performing in the world: up 12,000
per cent over 12 months. Surprising that is, until you remember that these
returns reflect hyper-inflation. In real terms, the local market has been
flat for the past three years – although that, in itself, is a minor miracle
given the country’s economic disasters.

According to Tony Hawkins at the University of Zimbabwe, there has been a 51
per cent fall in agricultural output between 2000 and 2007, a 47 per cent
fall in industrial output, and a 35 per cent fall in resources output. Over
the same period, GDP per capita has fallen back by more than 40 per cent. At
the same time, inflation has risen to near the 100,000 per cent mark. The UN
World Food Programme estimates that 4.2m Zimbabweans – a third of the
population – will face serious food shortages in early 2008.

Not surprisingly, the reaction of most emerging-
markets investors has been to run as far away as possible. Consequently,
foreign direct investment collapsed from more than $400m in 1998 to $30m in
2006. Even the International Finance Corporation reported that Zimbabwe is
one of the worst countries in the world to do business in, partly because of
legislation aimed at imposing at least 51 per cent ‘‘indigenous ownership’’
of businesses.

In these circumstances, it’s hard not to disagree with Slim Feriani,
managing director of Progressive Asset Management who runs its frontier
markets fund, when he declared that “at present Zim represents one of the
most contrarian bets a global investor can make”. Still it’s one that
Feriani and many others are quietly making, in small but noticeable ways. He
says: “Our pan-African managers are almost unanimous that Zim will offer
huge opportunities when things start to turn around.”

This contrarian view is backed by researchers at Australian bank Macquarie.
In a recent report on Zimbabwe, they spelled out three scenarios for the
future. The “best” scenario – at 60 per cent probability – sees a transfer
of power from president Mugabe to a successor, possibly Simba Makoni, and
reform within the ruling Zanu PF party. The “boring” scenario – with 30 per
cent probability – is an indefinite stalemate and no stock market recovery.
And the “bedlam” scenario – with 10 per cent probability – involves collapse
of governance, regional contagion and devastation.

If you agree that the best scenario is likely, you can start to consider the
unique nature of the Zimbabwean market: it comprises commercial survivors.
They have shown themselves to have “good business models, nimble management
and cash-generative businesses with low capex needs and pricing power”, says
one analyst. What’s more, they are dirt cheap. Some are now trading at just
10 per cent of replacement value.

One big investor that buys into this value-investing story is Lonrho. Last
year, it raised $60m and set up a separate investment and trading vehicle
called LonZim, headed by Lonrho CEO David Lenigas.

LonZim’s initial focus will be on property. At launch, Lenigas noted that
“commercial property is cheap as chips, the infrastructure in Harare is
fantastic but it’s fire-sale prices”. Tourism will probably become another
focus. In addition to the potential offered by game parks, LonZim is
investing in Zimbabweans’ favourite holiday destination – Beria in
Mozambique – picking up two hotels with more than 1.5km of prime beach
front. But the big long-term play, says Lenigas, is to build a huge
industrial company, spanning sectors such as printing, transport,
construction and telecoms. He believes that if Zimbabwe can recover “you’re
going to see a very large inflow of capital into the country” – as happened
to Vietnam.

So when might this happen? Even Lenigas admits that things are set to get
much worse. He says: “Are we at the bottom of the curve? Absolutely not. But
we’re not scared of getting involved. The best time to invest is at the
bottom of the curve and we see plenty of good deals at good prices.” This
may not be so easy. UK investors may be beaten to market by the Chinese.
Already, Zimasco Consolidated Enterprises, the holding company for Zimbabwe’s
largest ferrochrome producer, has been snapped up by Sinosteel.

On balance I think Zimbabwe may be worth a small long-term bet. LonZim is
the simplest way in, as it’s listed in London. You might also want to take a
closer look at the resources sector – Zimbabwe has large gold, diamond, coal
and natural gas deposits. Mwana Africa is also rated by Lenigas, even though
it has hit political trouble over its investments in Congo’s mining sector.
Impala Patinum might be worth researching, because of its Zimplats
subsidiary.

Personally, I think mobile phones will be the really clever play, as market
penetration is at only 40 per cent of the adult population, less than half
the level in South Africa. One company worth watching is Econet Wireless,
which is listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. It runs the largest GSM
network in the country, with a 67 per cent market share. Investors just need
the inflation and the anarchy to end soon.

adventurous@ft.com

SA ‘pledged to aid evicted Zimbabwe farmer’

Business Day

07 May 2008

Chantelle Benjamin

South African dispossessed of 14 farms sues president, ministers for
ratification of treaty or R80m in compensation

Chief Reporter

THE South African government had undertaken to do its best to help a Free
State farmer whose Zimbabwean farms were appropriated for resettlement
without compensation.

This came out in the case that involves Free State farmer Crawford von Abo,
who is taking President Thabo Mbeki, Foreign Minister Nkosazana DlaminiZuma
and Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa to court to force the
government to ratify a treaty that protects South African investments
abroad, or pay him R80m in compensation.

Fourteen farms that he had owned since the 1950s were taken for resettlement
without compensation.

The high court heard evidence yesterday that the Danish, German and French
governments intervened to prevent the confiscation of land belonging to
citizens from those countries, some of them living on farms bordering Von
Abo’s, but to date there had been no “meaningful response from the South
African government”, resulting in the loss of Von Abo’s farms.

Von Abo’s lawyer, Peter Hodes, spent most of yesterday going through six
years of correspondence. This saw Von Abo being sent from “pillar to post”
by various government departments and ministries only to be told in the end
that the South African government could not intervene because the farms,
registered as companies, were Zimbabwean companies .

The government’s replying affidavit goes on to say: “It is not wrong for a
sovereign state (Zimbabwe) to nationalise the property of its own nationals.
Whether or not such nationalisation is with or without compensation is a
matter for the laws of Zimbabwe.”

This is despite a letter written in May 2002 by Minister in the Presidency
Essop Pahad to Von Abo that “the South African government is fully aware of
the situation and will endeavour to do its utmost to safeguard South
African-owned property, companies and investments”.

Hodes said Von Abo, a South African citizen, was a sole director and member
of the companies and sole beneficiary of the trust, and all were managed,
financed and controlled from SA.

“The state under international law is required to take up the protection of
its nationals who have direct rights of control and management or
shareholding in a company incorporated in a foreign state, which has been
the victim of a violation of international law,” Hodes said.

He argued that confiscation of land without compensation was a violation of
international law.

Judge Bill Prinsloo said : “The question to be decided here is whether the
South African government’s handling of the matter was rational and correct
at the time.”

The South African courts had recognised that states “are better judges of
whether to intervene and if so, the timing and manner of such an
intervention”.

There is some debate in law as to whether a court has the right to compel
the South African government to become a party to the International
Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes, which would enable Von
Abo to take action against Zimbabwe, which is a signatory.

The case continues.