From The Star (SA), 30 October

Is Mugabe treading same path as Milosevic?

Harare - Robert Mugabe, the embattled Zimbabwean president, can no longer count on his army to defend him against the sort of popular uprising which brought down Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and Ivory Coast President Robert Guei earlier this month, some security analysts believe. The sudden fall of Milosevic inspired dissidents in the Ivory Coast to rise up against Guei when he stole the presidential elections this week and both events are emboldening Mugabe's growing legion of opponents to attempt the same solution in Zimbabwe.

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the chief opposition party, the MDC, which came close to upsetting the ruling Zanu-PF party in this June's elections, has taken to branding Mugabe as "Africa's Milosevic". The MDC is preparing rolling mass action to try to force him from power. As a new opinion poll showed this week, Mugabe is deeply unpopular. It found 74 percent of people thought he should step down and 56 percent thought he should be tried for alleged crimes. Many analysts believe, though, that the wily Mugabe will avoid Milosevic and Guei's fate. As angry as some of Mugabe's opponents might be, he retains important assets that militate against his removal from power by a wave of people power, they say.

One is the geography of Harare. The restive high density townships are isolated far from Mugabe's vast State House complex. And his residence is surrounded by army barracks and park land. To succeed, mass protests would have to come out of the townships into the city centre, but the few roads from the townships offer choke points easily blocked by troops. Crucially, Mugabe appears to retain the firm loyalty of the top military officers. In Yugoslavia and the Ivory Coast security forces switched sides, tipping the balance of power. Mugabe has worked long and hard at retaining the loyalty of his security forces. Recently he incorporated the war veterans, who were the ruling party's election shock troops, into a formal army reserve force. As the veterans are the most militant backers of Zanu-PF, analysts and opposition party organisers see that move as an important signal that Mugabe is preparing for battle over the 2002 presidential elections.

South African officials also believe the MDC does not have the power or ability to mobilise sufficient numbers of citizens to threaten Mugabe's hold on power or to brave the bullets they might face from Mugabe's security forces. But Richard Cornwell, a senior researcher at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, who has just returned from a field trip to Zimbabwe, believes that the MDC will not have to mobilise the Zimbabwean people as they will rise spontaneously against the government. And they will find ways of getting to State House if they are determined enough. He says while the very top ranks of the Zimbabwean Defence Force remain loyal to Mugabe, the second echelon of officers are losing faith in him as rapidly as ordinary citizens are. "I think a lot of them are also unhappy with the way they were shipped off to the Congo and left to fend for themselves; to die in much larger numbers than have been reported. The professional soldiers also resent the politicisation of the army. To count on those people firing on their own friends and relatives, would be dodgy."

"There is no sign of any disloyalty in the army but like everyone else they are affected adversely by the economy. They have to buy the same bread as everyone else," said Greg Linington, a lecturer in the political science department at the University of Zimbabwe. "I get the feeling things are bubbling up. It is not just going to carry on and on like a soap opera that doesn't end," he said. On Friday in Zimbabwe, after violent bread riots and impeachment proceedings were launched against Mugabe in parliament, opinion polls showed his plummeting popularity. Will Mugabe stay in power until he dies or be rudely shown the exit? The uncertain answer seems to lie in the subtle Zimbabwean character.

 

From Reuters, 29 October

Zimbabwe denies Mugabe lost US lawsuit on rights

HARARE - The Zimbabwean government on Saturday dismissed as "lies" reports that a US federal judge had ruled that President Robert Mugabe would have to pay damages in a $400 million human rights abuse lawsuit. The suit, filed in September in a Manhattan federal court, alleged that Mugabe had organised a campaign of violence to keep his political party, ZANU-PF, in power. Any suggestion that Mugabe and two ministers cited in the case had been found guilty was false, the Zimbabwean government said in a statement. The plaintiffs include relatives of three people who were slain and a political opponent who claimed she was beaten. Mugabe was served with the lawsuit while attending the UN millennium summit in New York in September. Theodore Cooperstein, a Washington lawyer representing some of the plaintiffs, said on Friday that Mugabe had failed to respond to the papers and a federal judge had ruled earlier this week that he was in default. "He deliberately ignored it (the lawsuit)," Cooperstein said. "Liability is now conceded."

"Those are lies," the government statement said in response to a report in the Zimbabwe Daily News that Mugabe had lost the case in a default judgement. "The verifiable facts are that the plaintiffs in the matter met Judge Victor Morero of the US at a status conference to determine whether the papers allegedly served on the President, ministers Stan Mudenge (foreign affairs) and Jonathan Moyo (information), constituted a lawful summons," it said. "Judge Morero found that the papers presented to him amounted to nothing more than a mere complaint. Accordingly, he directed that the plaintiffs resubmit their papers to him after which he would refer the matter to a magistrate to determine whether, in fact, the papers were properly and lawfully served on the President and the two ministers," the government said.

The government says Mugabe and his ministers enjoy diplomatic immunity and cannot be sued abroad. On Friday Cooperstein said the plaintiffs would next prepare papers arguing for damages and the matter would be referred to a magistrate to determine the total amount. The plaintiffs in the case are likely to have difficulty in collecting on any judgement. None of the plaintiffs in two similar suits against former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic have received any funds, and lawyers in both cases are trying to find out whether there are any assets to which they can make a legal claim. The lawsuits were filed under the Alien Tort Claims Act of 1789, which gives foreigners the right to file civil cases in US courts for injuries suffered in violation of international law. The two previous lawsuits filed in a Manhattan federal court accused Karadzic of tortures and killings committed during the genocide of the non-Serb population in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The suits resulted in jury verdicts of $4.5 billion and $745 million. Mugabe was the second foreign leader to be served with court papers while in New York. A group of plaintiffs filed suit against former Chinese Premier Li Peng, alleging that he was responsible for the crushing of pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square in 1989 and for other violations of human rights. Peng's security guards were served with that suit on August 31 in a hotel garage.

From The Star (SA), 30 October

'SA will not escape Zim fallout'

South Africa could not escape the effects of an economic or political collapse in Zimbabwe, Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said on Sunday. Speaking on SABC's Newsmaker programme, she said the two countries had strong ties, and warned that confrontation and instability within that country could lead to a flood of refugees into South Africa. "Zimbabwe is one of our biggest trading partners - that will effect us. We are linked by our people, by our history, by geography and by our economy. "It is an important country in the region... so if there is... total confrontation and instability, clearly the nearest place people will run to is South Africa," Dlamini-Zuma said.

Earlier in the programme, University of Zimbabwe business school head, Professor Tony Hawkins, said there was a sense of desperation in the country and the situation was "running out of control". "There is a sense that the crisis is escalating and moving rapidly now towards a climax, and therefore one can look forward to political change occurring sooner rather than later," he said. He said something had to "give" over the next six months. "Clearly, the type of political change one is looking at here is a change in the form of President (Robert) Mugabe stepping down, or being required to step down by his colleagues within Zanu-PF, who are fully conscious of the state of the economy," he said.

It was reported from London earlier on Sunday that Zimbabwe opposition party leader Morgan Tsvangirai has twice met former South African president Nelson Mandela to seek his support for a campaign to oust Mugabe. News of the meetings emerged at the end of a week in which Tsvangirai's MDC launched impeachment proceedings against the Zimbabwean president over violence by so-called war veterans in the run-up to the country's June elections. At the more recent of the two meetings - held earlier this month in South Africa - Tsvangirai warned Mandela that the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe meant time was running out, a source told London's Sunday Times. If President Thabo Mbeki, Mandela's successor, did not exert pressure on Mugabe to step down, then the possibility of an "honourable exit" would disappear, as the opposition would take to the streets to depose Mugabe, Tsvangirai warned.

Hawkins told Newsmaker he did not envisage a total collapse of Zimbabwe's economy. "What I'm saying is we're likely to see a worsening crisis on... the availability of electricity or fuel, and with the ending of the tobacco sales in 10 days time, the inflow of foreign currency will decline even more rapidly. "We've got enormous uncertainty in agriculture - farmers not knowing what they can plant, how much they can plant, whether they can get loans from the bank... and we're having people like the chamber of industry in Matabeleland saying that as many as half of their firms could close by Christmas." He said the economic pressures would intensify over the next three to nine months. "It's impossible to predict the course of events, but I don't think we're looking at absolute total collapse; we are looking at fairly radical decline unless things change," Hawkins said.

Dlamini-Zuma said the South African government would "do its best" to promote stability in Zimbabwe and to see that the situation did not escalate into "any kind of open confrontation and violence in the streets". "We appeal to everybody concerned to make sure the situation does not deteriorate to a point of instability, because that will just make the economic situation worse." Asked whether Mbeki's speech last week - in which he pronounced, among other things, on Zimbabwe-style land grabs - signified a shift away from the "quiet diplomacy" approach to that country, Dlamini-Zuma said this was not so. "It's not a shift, but its a position that we've maintained, that clearly... we couldn't condone violence and a breakdown of law and order, and I'm sure it wouldn't do any good for the Zimbabweans either. Whatever happened in Zimbabwe would indeed have a bearing on South Africa. "So this is partly why we can't not be involved in trying our best to see that Zimbabwe does not deteriorate to that point; obviously, if it does, we will be affected. We will not escape.

The government's position was that nothing should be done in Zimbabwe that would create conflict and confrontation. "We would appeal to everybody concerned that stability in Zimbabwe is important and anything that undermines that would further undermine the economic situation," she said. Asked if Zimbabwe was facing food shortages in the near future, Hawkins said he thought this was likely. "We know already we will need to import wheat because the wheat crop is down - we'll need to import probably a third of consumption." Fertiliser companies had reported a 35 to 40 percent fall in demand for their products, which suggested there was less planting, which would in turn result in a drop in production. There were also indications that the country's commercial farmers were switching from food crops such as maize to more hard-currency crops such as tobacco, cotton and soya, he said.

From The Zimbabwe Standard, 29 October

Zanu PF youths attack MDC supporters

MAHUSEKWA - Political violence continued to haunt Mahusekwa as the November 25 and 26 by-election for Marondera West draws near. On Thursday afternoon, several Zanu PF youths allegedly attacked MDC supporters at Mahusekwa township. Witnesses told The Standard on Friday that a group of MDC supporters were drinking beer at a bottle store owned by the MDC Mahusekwa branch chairman, Lovemore Takadiyi, when two truckloads of Zanu PF supporters arrived. A passenger in one of the cars allegedly shouted: "Rovai vanhu ve MDC" (Beat up MDC supporters). Eight youths jumped out of the cars and started going after the MDC supporters who managed to escape.

Narrating the incident, Takadiyi who claims that he is main target, said: "I was hit by a brick near my ear and fell down. That is when they started stamping and hitting me, but I managed to fight back and ran away to a nearby house." Takadiyi said he reported the incident to Chivhu police who gave him a report to allow him to seek medical treatment. A copy of the report was shown to The Standard. Takadiyi said he is being terrorised by Zanu PF supporters ever since he started campaigning for Shadreck Chipangura for the forthcoming by-election. Chipangura will be contesting against Zanu PF’s Brigadier Ambrose Mutinhiri for the seat that was left vacant following the death of the sitting MP, Rufaro Gwanzura of Zanu PF. Last Tuesday night Takadiyi is alleged to have narrowly escaped death when Zanu PF supporters fired at his home.

 

From The Daily Telegraph (UK), 30 October

90 farms spared Mugabe land grab

Harare –Ninety white farms in Zimbabwe were reprieved from compulsory seizure yesterday, but President Robert Mugabe's government said it would press ahead with the land grab campaign. Ministers conceded that the farms, which have not been named, had been designated for confiscation "by mistake". Another 2,205 farms are still listed for acquisition despite warnings of disaster from economists. Under the Agriculture Ministry's criteria, farmers who own a single, highly productive property should not be affected. In February Mr Mugabe told landowners: "If you own just one farm, we will not touch it." But David Hasluck, director of the CFU, said this assurance had been broken and at least 400 farmers stood to lose their only property. It seems likely that the government is trying to keep Mr Mugabe's promise, if only to avoid legal action. But Joseph Made, the agriculture minister, has promised to seize 3,270 white farms - almost 75 per cent - and resettle 500,000 black families on them. The government has also illegally dumped black settlers on at least 40 farms that have not been served with occupation orders and were not even listed. Squatters are still illegally occupying more than 1,000 farms and routinely stop landowners from working, despite Mr Mugabe's promise that the invaders "will not be allowed to interfere".