Tsvangirai wants trials for Zimbabwe violence: papers

Reuters

Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:58pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Zimbabwe prime minister-designate Morgan Tsvangirai was
quoted on Wednesday as saying some senior members of President Robert
Mugabe's ZANU-PF party could face trial over political violence, but not the
veteran leader himself.

"I don't think Mugabe himself as a person can be held accountable. But there
are various levels of institutional violence that has taken place and I'm
sure we'll be able to look at that," Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), said in an interview with The Guardian
newspaper.

"Let the rule of law apply ... We all cry for the rule of law, and if
somebody's committed an offence he should be prosecuted."

In an interview with The Times newspaper, also published on Wednesday,
Tsvangirai said the new government was committed to ensuring there would be
no repeat of the violence, which he described as "the darkest period in our
history".

"It can never be allowed to happen again," he said.

Tsvangirai will become prime minister under a power-sharing deal signed on
Monday with Mugabe, who has led Zimbabwe for nearly three decades, and
Arthur Mutambara, who leads a small breakaway faction of the MDC.

The agreement followed weeks of tense talks to end a deep political and
economic crisis compounded by Mugabe's unopposed re-election in a widely
condemned vote in June. Tsvangirai pulled out of the poll citing violence
against his supporters.

Zimbabweans hope the deal will be a first step in helping to rescue the once
prosperous nation from economic collapse. Inflation has rocketed to over 11
million percent and millions have fled to neighboring southern African
countries.

In the Guardian interview, Tsvangirai acknowledged there was suspicion and
mistrust between the MDC and ZANU-PF, and that working with former opponents
would be difficult.

INHERENT SUSPICION

"There's an inherent suspicion, there's inherent mistrust of Robert Mugabe.
It's understandable given his history, given his role. It's part of his
legacy," Tsvangirai said.

"But he also must understand that the future is not in the hands of Robert
Mugabe. The future is in the hands of those who are advocating a change of
direction because that is what is going to rescue this country. And I think
he appreciates that."

Tsvangirai said he hoped to sideline Mugabe -- whom he described as
"unrepentant, defiant, even when he was giving up" -- and build a working
relationship with ZANU-PF ministers.

"We will disagree. But at the end of the day we have to be motivated by what
is the best interests of the country. I'll try to encourage that," he said.

Under the power-sharing deal, Tsvangirai as prime minister will chair a
council of ministers supervising the cabinet, headed by Mugabe. Control of
the powerful security forces that have been key backers of Mugabe is
expected to be split.

Tsvangirai said in the interview he expected some ZANU-PF ministers would
try to sabotage his leadership, but that even Mugabe's party was looking
beyond the 84-year-old's rule.

"In the process of change of this nature that (resistance) is expected, but
it does not stop a train moving forward," he said, drawing parallels with
independence in 1980.

Tsvangirai said white-owned farms seized by the government since 2000 would
not be restored to their former owners.

"Don't underestimate the political and economic consequences of land but we
want to solve this once and for all so that never again should land be used
as a political tool," he said.

"We don't have any intention of going back to pre-2000."

The Times quoted Tsvangirai as saying Zimbabwe "must encourage farmers of
all colours to produce".

"The issue of white farmers has to be discussed in the context of land
ownership," he said. "That will be dealt with by an independent land
commission, where the issue of multiple farm ownership will have to be dealt
with."

He also urged Western powers not to withhold funds from the new government
despite their dislike of Mugabe.

"One has to understand we have entered into this deal with the object of
transforming this country. Mugabe may appear as an aberration to the West,
but he has entered into an agreement with us," the Times quoted him as
saying.

"They should have belief and faith with us, instead of being paranoid with
Mugabe."

(Reporting by Catherine Evans; Editing by David Fox)

Zanu-PF meeting puts power talks on ice

SABC

September 17, 2008, 05:00

Thulasizwe Simelane
The top brass in Zanu-PF will meet today to discuss the assignment of
ministerial portfolios in the new national unity government. Zimbabwe's
three main political rivals were due to meet yesterday to start allocating
ministerial posts for a new all-inclusive government after signing a
power-sharing agreement on Monday at the Rainbow Towers hotel in Harare,
arguably, Zimbabwe's finest moment in recent history.

The meeting was postponed after Zanu-PF called an urgent meeting of the
party's leadership. There is still no indication of who will control key
ministries such as finance, home affairs and defence.

Zimbabwe's business lobby estimates that it will take between $3 billion and
$5 billion to jump-start the country's economy. The hardest hit sectors
include agriculture and manufacturing, which has over the years almost
ground to a halt.

Robert Mugabe will remain President, Morgan Tsvangirai will become Executive
Prime Minister and Arthur Mutambara becomes Deputy Prime Minister. A team of
cabinet ministers must get cracking on the task of improving the plight of a
deeply polarized nation, facing a nearly collapsed economy.

The big prize
The big prize looks set to be the control of the levers of the economy, the
police and the army. Some are concerned about possible duplication of
powers, especially in ministries that will report to both the President and
the Prime Minister.

John Makumbe, a political scientist, says: "The Movement for Democratic
Change should control the ministry of finance, because if there is one
department where Zanu-PF has shown lack of discipline, it is the finance
department, which also controls the Reserve Bank. The MDC should also
control the Home Affairs Department, because we know about all the abuse
that has happened with the police and the prisons departments."

Some believe the new government should look beyond its doorstep, for the
expertise needed to turn the economy around. Callisto Jokonya, the President
of Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries, says: "If we pick people that are
competent, and have experience, it will be very good for us. I would say it
would be good to pick people that are in industry already, or people that
have run companies already."

The lifting of sanctions and the expected investment inflows will go a long
way towards helping the new government's efforts. The proof of this
political agreement will be in how much it changes the lives of ordinary
Zimbabweans who have borne the brunt of a decade-long power struggle.

Backlash as Mugabe's men face losing jobs

http://www.independent.ie

By Louis Weston in Harare

Wednesday September 17 2008

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe faced a backlash from his Zanu-PF party
over Zimbabwe's power-sharing agreement yesterday, as several of his
ministers faced the prospect of imminent unemployment.

After benefiting from years of patronage and corruption, many of his senior
officials will lose their jobs when a new cabinet is agreed. Only 15 seats
are reserved for Zanu-PF, down from its previous total of 32 cabinet posts
and 19 deputy ministerial jobs.

Senior Zanu-PF figures have been left "shattered" by the agreement with the
Movement for Democratic Change, sources said. At the weekend a senior
politburo member privately said: "Mugabe has sold out."

But Mr Mugabe (84) blamed his own party for the power-sharing deal with
Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader and the new prime minister. "It's because
of your divisions I have had to sign this document," the president told a
meeting of the politburo last weekend.

Ibbo Mandaza, once a senior official who remains well connected to Mr
Mugabe's party, said: "Zanu-PF has virtually lost its hold on the country.
Few, if any, Zanu-PF ministers will have allegiance to Mugabe."

Nonetheless, Mr Mugabe remains president and chairman of the cabinet,
although a parallel "council of ministers" will be headed by Mr Tsvangirai.

There is still an opportunity for Mr Mugabe to wield his vaunted political
skills and attempt to impose himself on Zimbabwe's future.

Talks between the president, Mr Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, the leader
of a rival MDC faction and the new deputy prime minister, will take place
today. The three men must agree the composition of the new 31-member
cabinet, in which the MDC's two wings will have 16 places.

Factions

Mr Mandaza does not expect Zanu-PF to turn against Mr Mugabe to the point of
deposing him. "They are lame, they don't know what to do. They are
disparate, too many factions, none of whom can commandeer the whole party."

Mr Tsvangirai said that signing the agreement had been essential for
Zimbabwe's future. "If we had not settled for this, it would have been a
very devastating blow to the hopes and aspirations of Zimbabweans.''

"It would have been the last nail in their confidence in their own country.
So on that basis I find it not impossible to work with President Mugabe," he
said.

The Prime Minister added that addressing Zimbabwe's desperate food shortage
was the new government's priority: "If I can get food to every part of the
corner of the country, that is the first step and we are working on that."
(© Daily Telegraph, London)

- Louis Weston in Harare

Zimbabwe victims still grieving

 

Wednesday, 17 September 2008 05:34 UK

By Farai Sevenzo BBC News As Zimbabwe's erstwhile political rivals and now comrades in government were signing a power-sharing deal in a luxury Harare hotel, many political activists and their families remain consumed by their grief. One opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) official, who I met as he showed me the burned huts of party sympathisers during the worst days of the violence, feels there is a strong sense of betrayal over what MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai did to become prime minister. "I now know one thing - all my friends died for nothing. Betta, Solja, Tatenda, Gift - all of them died for nothing. "The people who always talk about the heroic dead, like Mugabe, are very alive. Next time there is a war over voting or democracy, I want to be a hero but I want to stay alive." Others, however, accept that peace - and a share of power to help rebuild the country - come at a price. Talk of trials may unravel the whole fragile peace Tineyi Munetsi MDC official Tineyi Munetsi, another MDC official who saw body after mutilated body, with marks of senseless torture all too evident, says the feeling on the ground is difficult to gauge. "People are happy because they can now concentrate on surviving, rather than running away from political thugs. "Times are so hard there was no other way but for the politicians to sit and work things out. Talk of trials may unravel the whole fragile peace." Seeking justice This is the dilemma victims face - that at this particular juncture in the country's history, Zimbabwe is not keen on looking in the rear-view mirror to the crimes of 20 years ago, or those of the recent past, because the peace may not hold. As the deal was announced last week, Zimbabwe's long-suffering civil society and the Human Rights Forum put out a statement of demands. These demands included: "No amnesty for: (a) crimes against humanity, torture and other international crimes (b) rape and other sexual based crimes (c) corruption and other crimes of greed. Some opposition supporters welcomed last week's peace deal "No extinguishing of civil claims against the perpetrators or the state. No guarantee of job security for those found responsible for gross human rights violations and corruption." Of course there will be those who say such demands are being made by those who were not privy to the two-month talks that culminated in Monday's fanfare. Maybe when Mr Tsvanigirai talked about "painful compromises" he had a blanket amnesty for the bloody election violence in mind as one such painful compromise. But he also said: "Only through a public acknowledgement of past wrongs can we begin the process of national healing." Relatives of the victims of political violence may be forgiven for thinking that this means something in terms of their achieving closure to their loss and grief. But does it? Amnesty worries Edwin Sakala, from ZimRights, so long the custodians of human rights in the country, outlines the organisation's fears over the deal: "Yes we are very worried about issues of amnesty, should there be amnesty at all?" he asked. Whoever committed crimes which include murder and rape should be arrested Edwin Sakala ZimRights He noted that Mr Mugabe's Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa appeared on ZBC (the state broadcaster) immediately after the signing ceremony and said all parties agreed that they share liability for violence around election time. To make matters worse, President Mugabe even found time to tell his listeners in his Monday address that the opposition in Africa "want to be the ruling party, and will devise ways and means of getting there. Including violence…" The audience of MPs, aid workers and diplomats responded with boos, forcing him to try to explain himself. The facts and the bodies clearly point to his party and his shadowy generals as having had the lion's share of the blood. Reparation Mr Sakala says: "It is our belief that whoever committed crimes which include murder and rape should be arrested, sent to the courts and receive the appropriate punishment." And how far up would the punishments go? What about the issues of reparation? The Human Rights Forum on Monday said there should be "comprehensive reparations for victims of human rights violations. The group also wants "a credible and independent truth-seeking inquiry into the conflicts of the past, which holds perpetrators to account and which provides victims the opportunity to tell their stories with a view to promoting national healing." The opposition said it suffered a campaign of violence Mr Sakala believes it is right and proper that the issue of reparations be raised. "Too many people, particularly the poor and the powerless, lost their homes and relatives to the violence. We are talking thousands. How can they move on?" Mai Samantha of Sasa village, some 40km north of Harare, has had to move her whole family to the township of Budiriro in the capital over the last two months. The men who burnt her hut were arrested in April but the following month, she no longer felt safe in her village and had to flee. On the phone she is still bitter. "I'm a poor person, it took me years to gather my property. I just want some way of recovering what I worked so hard for." I ask her if she cannot forgive and forget for the sake of the nation. "Why should I? Did I burn anyone's property? Did I kill anyone? All the time in this country, every election, people do these things and they never have to pay. It's time it all stopped."

'There's an inherent suspicion of Mugabe. But he must understand that the future is not in the hands of Robert Mugabe'

Chris McGreal in Harare
The Guardian,
Wednesday September 17 2008

Zimbabwe's new prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, yesterday described Robert
Mugabe as "giving up" and said that he would seek to govern by sidelining
the beleaguered president whose own party is "moving on" without him.

But, in an interview with the Guardian, Tsvangirai acknowledged that a
climate of suspicion and mistrust between his own Movement for Democratic
Change and Mugabe's Zanu-PF party would test his political skills as prime
minister at the head of a coalition government of former opponents - some of
whom are responsible for overseeing a vicious campaign of violence against
other members of the new administration.

That suspicion will not be eased by a warning from Tsvangirai that while
Mugabe is unlikely to be called to account for his crimes, others in the
Zanu-PF leadership - including some who may sit in the new cabinet - could
face trial.

"I don't think Mugabe himself as a person can be held accountable. But there
are various levels of institutional violence that has taken place and I'm
sure we'll be able to look at that," he said. "Let the rule of law apply ...
We all cry for the rule of law, and if somebody's committed an offence he
should be prosecuted."

Under the power-sharing deal signed on Monday, Tsvangirai will head a
council of ministers responsible for the day-to-day running of the country,
while Mugabe will chair a cabinet of the same ministers to agree policy. The
two factions of the MDC combined have a majority of one in both bodies.

Tsvangirai acknowledged that working in the cabinet would be testing.

"There's an inherent suspicion, there's inherent mistrust of Robert Mugabe.
It's understandable given his history, given his role. It's part of his
legacy. But he also must understand that the future is not in the hands of
Robert Mugabe. The future is in the hands of those who are advocating a
change of direction because that is what is going to rescue this country.
And I think he appreciates that," he said.

Tsvangirai believes that heading the council of ministers, without Mugabe
present, will allow him to sideline the president and govern directly by
establishing a working relationship with Zanu-PF cabinet ministers who
realise that Mugabe is part of the past. "That's the whole purpose of having
a council of ministers, that we are able to build a structured relationship
outside the cabinet."

But how is he going to control the council of ministers, many of whom have
expressed contempt for him, or worse?

"It has to be a combination of personal cultivation of the team and to
remove these negative attitudes. I'm sure we don't all have to agree. We
will disagree. But at the end of the day we have to be motivated by what is
the best interests of the country. I'll try to encourage that," he said.

He acknowledged that some of Mugabe's ministers would seek to sabotage his
leadership. "Those will be sour grapes and I'm sure that anyone who engages
in those kind of negative tendencies is holding the country to ransom. For
what purpose?"

Mugabe's speech after the signing of the accord on Monday was not a good
omen. The president dwelled on the past and gave only a belated and
half-hearted commitment to make the power-sharing agreement work.

"That was vintage Mugabe at his best: unrepentant, defiant, even when he was
giving up," said Tsvangirai.

But he insisted that the future lay beyond Mugabe and that even his Zanu-PF
party was moving beyond him. "They see this old man who is defiant right up
to the end. But he was also able to give the country a chance to rescue
itself from the malaise and start over again."

Many in the MDC are suspicious of compromise. They want to force out men
such as the police chief, Augustine Chihuri, who said he would never salute
Tsvangirai and who used his force as part of the assault on the MDC during
the election.

Tsvangirai sees it differently. "Chihuri is just an individual. We're not
talking about individuals here. We're talking about a process ... in which
individuals have to fit a transformative agenda or find themselves not
fitting with the spirit of the new agenda." Or as another senior MDC
official put it: "They have to salute us or leave."

Tsvangirai referred back to the compromises at the end of white rule 28
years ago. "We had a similar kind of people in 1980, those who refused to
accept black majority rule has arrived and were even undermining the
government, even going to the extent of sabotaging the government. In the
process of change of this nature that is expected, but it does not stop a
train moving forward," he said.

But to move the train forward, Tsvangirai needs foreign money to rebuild an
economy shattered by hyperinflation, plunder of the central bank, and a
collapse in agriculture and manufacturing. The Europeans and Americans have
earmarked about £1bn in help but first they want to see that Tsvangirai
really is in charge and that Mugabe really is giving up.

"They are sceptical because they mistrust Mugabe but they are also aware of
their obligations," he said.

"I hope that they would look at this [agreement] as a positive step that
should be supported ... because they were supporting the democratic struggle
in the country."

That struggle began in earnest eight years ago as the government seized
white-owned farms in the name of righting a historical wrong. The process
was so corrupt and botched that agriculture has collapsed as a result.

But on this issue, Tsvangirai now agrees with Mugabe. The land will never go
back to the white farmers.

"Don't underestimate the political and economic consequences of land but we
want to solve this once and for all so that never again should land be used
as a political tool," he said.

"We don't have any intention of going back to pre-2000."

Donors cautious about aid
Western donors remain cautious about the political settlement in Zimbabwe
and want to see further progress before unlocking a £1bn aid package.

The US ambassador to Harare, James McGee, told the Associated Press that
Washington was adopting a "very careful wait-and-see stance". "If this works
out the way Mr Tsvangirai hopes it will, we will be very willing to work
with the people of Zimbabwe," he said.

But while large amounts of financial aid will not be forthcoming until the
US sees evidence that it is Morgan Tsvangirai and not Robert Mugabe who is
in charge, McGee said the US would provide food to alleviate widespread
malnutrition.

EU foreign ministers said the government had to prove itself democratically
before economic aid was resumed. They said the EU was prepared to "adopt a
set of economic support measures" but only in support of "a transitional
government taking the steps to restore democracy and the rule of law in
Zimbabwe".

The French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, who chaired EU talks on
sanctions, said: "We are happy about what is happening there but it's not
the end. It will be a long process."

Australia's foreign minister, Stephen Smith, described the political
settlement as "modest progress" and said sanctions against Mugabe and other
Zanu-PF leaders would not be lifted until there was evidence of progress on
human rights and economic reconstruction.

Zimbabwe will need a lot more than an agreement to rise from its knees

http://www.irishtimes.com

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

ZIMBABWE: While the powersharing deal is welcome, for the masses suffering
squalor and neglect aid is needed right now, writes Bill Corcoran in
Highfield township
HIGHFIELD, THE TOWNSHIP outside Harare where Zimbabwean president Robert
Mugabe's regime held Independence Day celebrations in the 1980s is now a
shadow of its former self.

As Zimbabwe's economic plight has worsened over the past 10 years to the
point of recent collapse, so too has local government's ability to maintain
the most basic of services for the people living in the country's towns and
cities.

Even though Highfield is Mugabe's own constituency, its residents now live
in abject poverty and squalor. These days you can smell the township long
before you enter it due to the overflowing sewage system and rubbish which
has not been collected by the council in years.

Indeed, Highfield's residents have long abandoned their support for the
84-year-old veteran leader, who used to live among them. Nor do they support
his Zanu-PF party because of his government's mishandling of the economy and
his refusal to relinquish power.

Today the township is a Movement for Democratic Change stronghold where the
party's parliamentary candidate has been returned in each election since
2002.

Despite Highfield's political activism and the media attention the
powersharing signing-ceremony received, the daily struggle to survive has
left some unaware there is now hope for a better future.

Kezener Katoma says she did not even know the country's rival political
leaders had gathered at the capital's Rainbow Towers Hotel to sign an
agreement.

"I was too weak with fever to do anything yesterday, so I stayed in my home
and rested. We have no electricity so there is no television or radio, and
there are no newspapers for sale here.

"Was there really a deal signed yesterday?" she asks before doubling over
from the pain of the dysentery wracking her body.

The 65 year old told The Irish Times that diseases like dysentery and
cholera are rife in the area because the sewage system has been blocked for
years and no one has ever come to unblock it.

The house she lives in on the corner of her street has a dried river of
faeces running past it; mounds of rubbish two feet high are piled up on the
sides of every street because the city council has no money to pay its
workers, who would normally dispose of it.

"This is very bad now, but when the rainy season floods come next month it
will be a lot worse. The sewage will flow right up to our front door. What
kind of government leaves its people to live in these conditions?

"I look after 10 children and they get sick from living here. There is no
medicine in the hospitals to help them when they get sick. There is no food
either. So they eat just a small meal of sadza [ground maize with water]
just once a day," she says bitterly.

Up the street, Faraid Mugazi is sitting outside his home talking to a friend
when he sees the commotion a white man's presence has caused in his
neighbourhood.

He walks slowly towards Katoma's home and listens for a moment before asking
me: "Why are you gathering all this information?" When I reply that people
from Ireland want to know what is happening in Zimbabwe, he responds: "Why?
Will the people from the West help us if they know how we are living?"

I do not know how to reply.

Following the powersharing deal, the EU and US said they would adopt a
wait-and-see approach before committing the billions needed in aid.

The US ambassador to Zimbabwe said Washington was ready to feed hungry
Zimbabweans but the new unity government must prove its commitment to
democracy before it will get development aid.

Ambassador James McGee also said the government should free political
prisoners and halt political violence. McGee told reporters the US was
taking a "very careful wait-and-see attitude" about the agreement that has
Mugabe ceding some power to his opposition rival.

He added US food was already in the country but the government needed to
provide access for NGOs and ensure that it got to all needy people, no
matter how they voted. He added if it works, "we will be very willing to
work with the people of Zimbabwe".

Unfortunately, for the residents of Highfield, it is likely that next
month's floods, which carry disease right to their doorstep, will arrive
long before the flood of western aid money that is needed to improve their
lives.

Fixing Zimbabwean economy a Herculean task

http://www.businessday.co.za

17 September 2008

Tony Hawkins

REVERSING Zimbabwe's 10-year, self-inflicted economic decline is going to be
a Herculean task. Output in agriculture, mining and manufacturing has
halved, as have formal sector employment and real incomes since President
Robert Mugabe launched his "100% empowerment drive" in 1997.

Inflation is in the region of 40-million percent, there has been sweeping
dollarisation of the economy, the currency has collapsed in the past week
alone from Z$7000 to the pound to Z$60000, and a creaking infrastructure
functions only spasmodically.

Social service delivery has all but collapsed and empty shops and factories
operating at less than 20% of capacity bear testimony to the still-ruling
Zanu (PF)'s economic legacy.

Turning the situation around will take money, time and, above all, strong,
committed leadership.

Whether Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) and prime minister in a unity government still headed by Mugabe, will
be able - or allowed - to manage the country's economic recovery is unclear.

Although the MDC is expected to control the economic portfolios, the party
has little business and economic expertise.

The institutions it is inheriting - the public service and state-owned
enterprises - have been systematically undermined.

Unlike Mugabe at independence in 1980, Tsvangirai is not inheriting a
well-functioning, efficient bureaucracy, which means that even if the
policies are right, putting them into practice poses enormous problems.

The policy menu is straightforward enough, starting with a freeze on central
bank quasi-fiscal spending, currently estimated at more than 80% of gross
domestic product; transferring some of this to the national budget, which
will have to be radically revised; tightening monetary policy by raising
interest rates; and cutting money supply growth drastically.

High on the agenda too must be a new governor for the central bank, a new
currency and the immediate engagement of the international community in
providing emergency financial assistance.

This must be in the form of budgetary and balance of payments support, as
well as food aid and credit lines to finance imports of fuel, electricity
and essential inputs.

The exchange must be freed by liberalising current account transactions and,
perhaps, allowing free movement of capital for individuals, though probably
not initially for companies.

The central bank should be made autonomous and parliament should legislate
to rein in the spending ambitions of the 31 ministers, all of whom will have
their eyes fixed on the next round of elections in perhaps three years.

Pushing through a programme of radical economic and social reforms, while
simultaneously negotiating a new constitution, would test even the
strongest, most experienced and cohesive of governments.

By creating two opposed centres of power within a single administration,
Thabo Mbeki, who brokered the agreement, has set the stage for political
horse-trading and bartering that will make it extremely difficult to manage
the national budget - ultimately the key to taming inflation.

There is a question mark, too, over what the international response will be.
Western donors, who in July pressed unsuccessfully for the imposition of
United Nations sanctions targeting leaders in the Mugabe regime, will now be
asked to bankroll them.

There is unlikely to be a rush to do so, although there are likely to be
early initiatives to accelerate and increase humanitarian assistance.

No one knows how much donor funding is needed because no agency has yet
assessed the cost of a grand plan for economic recovery.

At the forefront, too, is the land problem. A unity administration will not
be able to reverse most of the Mugabe government's land policies. What is
needed is a land audit to establish who owns what and a commission to
rationalise land ownership, but it is hard to see such action taken by a
deeply divided coalition.

Even if donors and lenders do support the new government, there will be
serious constraints - most obviously electricity, but also skills. More than
2-million people, including many of the brightest and best, have emigrated
in recent years.

One lesson stands out from experience in many other parts of Africa. Fixing
failed states is more about institutions and political economy than narrowly
technical economic policies.

If, miraculously, Zimbabwe's once-strong institutions can be revived, then
the coming recovery will be quicker and more durable. Without effective
institutions, recovery will be a tough task. Financial Times

Easing Mugabe out

Boston Globe

September 17, 2008
THE POWER-SHARING deal under which Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has
agreed to let opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai become prime minister is
hardly ideal. Not only does Mugabe remain president under the formula
announced Monday, but he also retains sole authority over the army, which he
used as recently as this past June to go about the countryside, breaking the
bones of Tsvangirai's supporters.

By such thuggish methods, Mugabe forced Tsvangirai to withdraw from a runoff
presidential election. The aim then was to preserve Mugabe's monopoly on
political power. And the corrupt purpose of that monopoly was to allow his
circle of cronies, particularly in the upper echelons of the military, to
continue skimming every last penny of wealth from an impoverished
population. If Mugabe still calls the shots for the army, he may at any time
revert to past practice and seize untrammeled power by force.

Nevertheless, something rare has happened in Zimbabwe. A dictator has been
obliged to give up absolute power by virtue of a peaceful civic campaign
conducted according to a democratic rule book. Moreover, Zimbabwe's
democratic movement benefited from foreign backing that was untainted by
military threats.

Western economic sanctions had a key role in persuading Mugabe to yield to
the will of his people. Having ruined an economy that should be one of the
most prosperous in Africa, Mugabe and his robber band would have nothing
left to steal if they did not renew foreign aid and investment by sharing
power with Tsvangirai's party.

Future economic assistance must be conditioned on Tsvangirai's unhampered
control of the new government's economic ministries and Zimbabwe's economic
policies.

From the Forums: Quotes on Zimbabwe deal

Zimbabweans stay put in Musina despite power deal

SABC

September 17, 2008, 06:15

Zimbabwean immigrants at the Musina refugee centre are still applying for
refugee status. This is despite the historical power sharing deal clinched
by the opposition party MDC and the ruling Zanu PF. The situation has not
changed at the Beitbridge border post even though thousands of Zimbabweans
who fled the country after the elections are expected to go back to their
country of birth.

An estimated 3.4 million Zimbabweans, a quarter of the population, had fled
abroad by mid 2007 and some 3 million of these have gone to South Africa.
Many immigrants are reluctant to go back to Zimbabwe due to the current
economic situation and have decided to remain in the country a little longer
with the hope of securing jobs and better living conditions.

They say it is still early for them to return home and it will take time
before they take such decision. "I don't think I can go back right now
because I don't know whether things are right or not good right now, so I
just want to work maybe for sometime until things are going well," an
immigrant said.

The Department of Home Affairs is also gearing up for the Zimbabweans who
are expected to cross border to help uplift the country's economy. Sam
Moremi, a Home Affairs provincial spokesperson, says: "So far we have not
seen any increase in the number of Zimbabweans going back, but we are
watching the proceedings very closely. Should any increase in volumes of
Zimbabweans going back home, we always have a plan B to ensure that our
officials are ready to be on top of the situation."

COSATU reacts to Zimbabwe's power-share deal

http://www.zimbabwejournalists.com

17th Sep 2008 01:13 GMT

By Patrick Craven

THE Congress of South African Trade Unions has noted the agreement signed by
the leaders of the political parties in Zimbabwe on 15 September 2008.

We stand by our view that it is only the people of Zimbabwe who must judge
whether or not this deal is in their interests. We are therefore awaiting
the comments of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions and will be guided by
them.

Meanwhile, while awaiting the ZCTU's response, only insofar as the people
accept it, we give the agreement our cautious support, but note that many of
the demands raised by civil society and supported by COSATU have not been
met, including:

. Civil society has been shut out of the negotiations and it has thus been
an agreement between the political leaders;

. The agreement does not recognise the result of the 29 March elections. As
a result the loser has become the winner and the winner the loser;

. MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai is effectively in charge of a  cluster of
ministries, while President Mugabe still has  extensive powers;

. The agreement is not for an interim government until new elections have
been held but for a normal full-term government;

. All Mugabe's draconian laws remain in place, which give him, for
example, the power to arrest political opponents.

The agreement marks a dangerous spread of the Kenyan virus that sends a
signal to dictators that they can defy the will of the people by force and
then retain power through negotiations, brokered by other African leaders.

It marks a retreat from the principles that the African Union and SADC are
supposed to uphold and a return to the bad traditions of the Organisation of
African Unity that sacrificed the interests of the people to protect
dictators.

Meanwhile COSATU waits to hear from the ZCTU, after which it will consider
their advice as to whether to continue with the proposed programme of
boycotts. If they ask us to proceed we shall do so.