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SOKWANELE
Enough is Enough
Zimbabwe
We have a fundamental right to freedom of
expression!
Sokwanele
reporter
29 August
2004
It was none other than Robert
Mugabe who once remarked that “absolute power is when a man is starving and you
are the only one able to give him food”.
Zimbabwe and the world should take note that he and his party are in
deadly earnest about demonstrating the truth of this maxim. The suffering which will be inflicted upon
millions in the process does not deter him – or them – for one moment. It is a
price they are more than willing to pay in pursuit of that hold on absolute
power.
With the looming
2005 parliamentary poll already casting a deep shadow across the nation, ZANU PF
has positioned itself to take total control of the food procurement, storage and
distribution process. To this end the
massive famine relief operation of the World Food Programme – to which over six
million Zimbabweans already owe their lives – has been closed down summarily by
ministerial decree, and NGO’s ordered to
cease their feeding schemes with immediate effect. And all this despite the dire state of the
country’s own agricultural industry, now reeling under the effects of the
chaotic fast-track land resettlement programme,
and clearly unable to provide for the nation’s food
requirements.
In order to hide
from its own people and from the world the enormity of what it is doing, the
regime has been forced to stifle the free flow of information about the food
situation. Hence the abrupt termination of the WFP food security survey and
hence the deliberate plan of disinformation put into effect by the regime’s own
propaganda agents. This policy of disinformation was launched with the biggest
lie of all, broadcast to the world by Robert Mugabe himself, that Zimbabwe was
on its way to producing a bumper harvest this year – a grain surplus which would
render any further food aid unnecessary.
Mugabe’s lie has thus become the benchmark to which those colluding with
him in this massive deception, notably Joseph Made and Jonathan Moyo, have to
work. Their task, to which they have
devoted themselves with the usual enthusiasm, is to produce the “smoke and
mirrors” which distort the appalling reality and justify the decision to send
the international food donors on their way.
Zimbabweans
surely have a right to know the true position concerning the food security
situation on which their lives ultimately depend, but that information is now
being deliberately suppressed. In the past information about the food supplies
was freely available, but as Zimconsult, a group of independent economic and
planning consultants, say in their report entitled “Famine in Zimbabwe” (April
2004) “in the current situation of
policy-induced food scarcity and the militarization of the Grain Marketing Board
(GMB), the public is deliberately denied access to information”. Hence the
nation has not been informed how much food was produced in the 2002/3 season,
what quantities the GMB purchased, or the current status of cereal stocks in the
country. And when the official records
of Bulawayo City’s Health Department show that already this year more than 150
people have died as a direct result of food shortages in this urban area alone –
surely the tip of the iceberg – the regime’s propaganda machine goes into
overdrive to rubbish the story.
Yet as Abraham
Lincoln once so wisely remarked “you cannot fool all the people all the
time”. No matter what efforts are made
to suppress the truth it has a habit of coming out eventually, and in this case
sooner rather than later. Already there
are clear signs of where the truth lies, and that truth is far removed from the
complacent picture painted by Messrs Made and Moyo. Zimbabweans therefore will not have to wait
until Robert Mugabe and his partners in crime (in the full literal sense) are
dragged before an international tribunal to face charges of genocide and crimes
against humanity, before the appalling reality is revealed for all to see. While the full story may only emerge later
and in such a scenario, already Zimbabweans are beginning to see through
the labyrinth of ZANU PF’s lies and
deceptions.
There is a broad
consensus among all concerned that the baseline figure for Zimbabwe’s minimum
cereal requirements is 1.9 million metric tonnes. This figure includes human consumption,
stockfeed, industrial and other uses but does not include any provision for
strategic reserves. But it is the likely size of the country’s own cereal
harvest which is in contention. The
figure of 2.4 million mt touted by the regime would indeed provide a significant
surplus, but this figure has not been accepted by any of the other major
players. Indeed while the regime has
provided nothing of substance to back its wildly optimistic forecast, others
have given the most cogent reasons for discounting it.
We may begin
with the report of the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee
(ZIMVAC). This team comprising the United Nations, the relevant aid agencies
and some of the regime’s own officials, concluded that there would be a cereal
deficit of 177,681 mt for the year to March 2005. In a summary of their findings they state
unequivocally that “a total of 2.3 million people will not be able to meet their
minimum cereal needs during the 2004/5 season. This represents about 29.5 per
cent of the total population”. A stark
warning indeed, which would surely jolt all but the most uncaring or heartless
regimes into instant action.
The ZIMVAC
report, completed in April this year, is both professional and objective. If
anything it is regarded among aid agencies as erring on the conservative side in
assessing present and future food deficits. The amount of detail provided is
impressive. Across the country, district by district, it gives the numbers
expected to be in food deficit, for the periods April to June, July to November
and December 2004 to March 2005. The figures show a progressive increase in
absolute and percentage terms and also provide some interesting comparisons –
for example the range between a 13.8 per cent of the population in food deficit
in the Zvimba District (December to March 2005) and a whopping 53.4 per cent in
Hwange District for the same period. A
carefully researched and balanced document therefore to which those responsible
for ensuring adequate food supplies for the nation should surely pay the closest
attention. Yet once again the regime has
responded with denial. When they could not suppress the report they chose to
ignore its findings, holding blindly to the official line that a “bumper
harvest” was around the corner which would supply all the nation’s needs. (One’s mind goes back to the loyal Communist
Party cadres in China who did the same in the late 1950’s and early 60’s,
sending in glowing - and completely fictitious - reports about a record harvest
rather than daring to acknowledge the failure of Mao Zedong’s “great leap
forward”. And they continued to do so
even as the catastrophic famine, that was to claim over 14 million lives, was
beginning to take its terrible toll).
In order to
produce their report, “Famine in Zimbabwe”, the Zimconsult team conducted their
own field observations in Mashonaland, East, Central and West and in the
Manicaland, Midlands and Masvingo provinces. They also consulted the various
farmers’ organizations and drew on information provided by such reputable
sources as Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) and the SADC Early
Warning System. Their study looks at the factors determining the likely level of
production, including the areas under cultivation and average yields – the
latter being determined in turn by the availability of seed, fertilizer and
tillage, as well as rainfall. In each
case, with the exception of rainfall which is a “given”, the consultants found a
chronic lack of planning on the part of the government which resulted in major
shortfalls.
Contrary to the
ruling party’s own official dogma, seed growers were evicted from their farms in
the chaotic scramble for land, resulting in only 40 per cent of the seed
required at the start of the season being available to farmers. The lack of foreign currency to import raw
materials for fertilizer production and the unrealistic price controls imposed
on the products, kept fertilizers in chronic short supply. And tillage was severely restricted by such
factors as the acute shortages of diesel, the cost of ploughing, and the lack of
spare parts which grounded 50 per cent of the DDF tractors.
Combining the
effects of these adverse “human” factors together with the unusual rainfall
pattern and failure of the early planted maize, the consultants predicted a maize harvest of between 650,000 and
850,000 mt. Allowing for a crop of small
grains of between 100,000 and 200,000 mt and also making allowance for the
250,000 mt maize purchased by the GMB last year (and retained in storage despite
the severe shortages of mealie meal in the country), they envisaged a national cereal deficit in the current
season of between 600,000 and 900,000 mt.
“Whichever way
one looks at the situation”, the consultants conclude, “there will be a huge
shortage of food in the country, caused by a potent combination of chaotic land
reform and destructive macro-economic policies”.
Nor are these
predictions out of line with those of FEWSNET which, with a slightly more
optimistic appraisal of likely maize and small grains’ yields, comes up with a
shortfall of between 500,000 and 800,000 mt.
In summary, it
is only the regime’s own apologists who are holding to the line that Zimbabwe
will produce enough food for all in the current season, or to the ridiculous
fiction that a bumper harvest is on its way.
Every other reputable authority is predicting a massive food
deficit. The most conservative estimate
of that deficit (ZIMVAC’s) leaves 2.3
million people, or nearly 30 per cent of the population, unable to meet their
basic cereal needs – in short a catastrophic famine which is already under
way.
The pain is
already severe and it is becoming more intense with each week that passes. None
are more aware of this pain, nor so frustrated by their inability to respond to
it, than the NGO’s and donor agencies which have been told to shut down their
life-saving operations. World Vision is
one of the big players which have been ordered to terminate all food
distribution operations, though “not to go away” at least for the time being.
With the result that while their warehouse in Bulawayo, with a capacity of about
6,000 mt, stands full of grain, they cannot use any of that food even to
continue their feeding programmes for the terminally ill, pregnant women and
lactating mothers and malnourished children under 5 years of age. World Vision’s own careful research,
completed before the ban on information gathering, shows an alarming trend of
increasing food shortages in the rural areas where they were operating. For
example the cereal supply of 48.5 per cent of the population in the Insiza area
was expected to run out altogether by the end of August, and of 70.5 per cent of
the same population group before the end of October. (The corresponding figures for Gwanda are
33.8 per cent and 55.1 per cent and for Beitbridge 22.2 per cent and 50.2 per
cent respectively)
Even within ZANU
PF the strain of holding to the official line against the increasing weight of
evidence to the contrary is beginning to tell, with three provincial governors
requesting food aid from central government and asking for NGO’s to be allowed
to continue distributing food aid in their drought-stricken areas. Their
intervention must surely explain the recent, reluctant about-turn of the Social
Welfare Minister, Paul Mangwana, who has now said that NGO’s can resume their
schemes targeting specific groups such as orphans and HIV/AIDS victims. At the
same time, in what must surely rank as one of the most ridiculous
understatements both of the current national crisis and of the contribution of
international donors in saving millions of Zimbabwean lives, Mangwana added that
NGO’s will be “allowed to chip in when there is an emergency”.
Contradictions
are also apparent within the regime’s own figures, for example between their
statistical forecasts of a national harvest of 1.2 million mt and the mythical
2.4 million mt put about by Jonathan Moyo’s propaganda machine. Consider also
the importation of grain from Zambia through Chirundu and from America,
Argentina and South Africa through Beit Bridge, a reality the regime has done
its utmost to conceal but which is now well documented. For example the South African Grain
Information Service records 168,000 mt of maize and 50,000 mt of wheat being
shipped to Zimbabwe so far this year.
Hardly necessary if a bumper harvest is expected. No doubt this imported grain is destined to
be lodged in the GMB silos, now effectively under military control, and used,
not to feed the starving today, but rather as a part of what one might call
Mugabe’s strategic election reserves.
What we are
looking at here is not simply an appalling failure of planning, as serious an
indictment of the regime as that would be in itself. True there have been the
most dismal failures in this regard which provide ample evidence that ZANU PF is unfit to govern. But the most
serious charge to level at Robert Mugabe and those who follow him blindly, is
not what they have left unplanned but what they have planned with the utmost
precision and the most diabolical cunning – and that is a scenario in which they
can exploit to the full a national catastrophe. The conclusion is inescapable,
that Mugabe closed down the WFP feeding programme and ordered NGO’s to cease
their humanitarian assistance because he feared, first, that they would dilute
his power and second, that they would
have direct access to the facts which would blow his fiction of a bumper harvest
out of the water. Mugabe welcomes a
famine as the ultimate means of political control and absolute power. Whatever
the appalling cost to his own people, he will not permit anyone or anything to
undermine that hold on power.