From The Washington Post, 30 November

In Zimbabwe, Signs of 'Trouble Ahead'

Johannesburg - In October, Zimbabwe's government turned away international election monitors, accusing the European observers of favoring the opposition in presidential elections scheduled for early next year. That was followed by the arrests of two independent journalists, and last week President Robert Mugabe's information minister compared the international media to terrorists and began notifying foreign journalists that they would not be allowed to work in the country for the foreseeable future. Along the way, Mugabe's political party, which has governed the former British colony virtually since its independence 21 years ago, has introduced legislation to prevent relief agencies from sponsoring voter education programs, to establish tougher residency requirements for voters and, in a new anti-terrorism bill, to make it a crime to "undermine the authority of the president" or "engender hostility" toward him. The offenses would be punishable by death.

As Zimbabwe heads into the homestretch of an already violent campaign season, the shape of things to come is anything but promising, according to diplomats, opposition politicians and political analysts throughout southern Africa. With polls showing Mugabe running behind Morgan Tsvangirai, the candidate of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, the 77-year-old president is preparing to accelerate his party's 18-month-old campaign of violence and terror to force democracy to bend to his will, observers say. By pushing laws through parliament that could discourage thousands of voters from casting ballots, by harassing and jailing opposition politicians and their supporters and by shielding Zimbabwe from the watchful eyes of foreign media and independent observers, many here say Mugabe is likely positioning his governing party, Zanu PF, to rig the toughest election of his 21-year rule. "It has got all the potential for trouble ahead," said Michael Quintana, editor of Africa Defense Journal.

After voters rejected a constitutional referendum in February 2000 to further consolidate Mugabe's autocratic powers, violent mobs led by veterans of Zimbabwe's 1970s liberation war began seizing commercial farms owned by wealthy, white farmers, who account for less than 1 percent of the country's 12 million people. Nearly 40 people - mostly opposition supporters - died in the confrontations that followed, and many say they fear that the violence will only increase in the months leading up to the elections, which are scheduled for March. Survey results released this month showed Tsvangirai running ahead of Mugabe, and a Gallup poll due to be released soon shows the former trade union leader holding an advantage of 8 percentage points over the president.

After a government supporter was killed Nov. 13, mobs of war veterans accused members of Tsvangirai's party, the MDC, of orchestrating the murder in retaliation for the killing of one of their own, and rioted last week in Zimbabwe's second city, Bulawayo. Witnesses said police escorted the veterans as they marched through the streets attacking vendors selling independent newspapers that have been critical of Mugabe, overturning cars and setting them on fire. At the funeral last week of Cain Nkala, the slain Zanu PF supporter, Mugabe repeatedly referred to the MDC and sympathetic white farmers as "terrorists" and accused Britain - Zimbabwe's former colonial ruler – of supporting terrorists. That characterization, according to Western diplomats, MDC leaders and activists, lays the foundation for a government crackdown on the MDC in the name of state security. The rhetoric is similar to Mugabe's denunciation of political rivals following Zimbabwe's independence, which led to the government's violent clashes with dissidents in the Matabeleland region, where Bulawayo is located. "This is exactly the script that he used" in the 1980s, said Learnmore Jongwe, an MDC spokesman. "It is a signal to us that they are going to try everything - including assassination - to hijack the elections. We are telling our supporters to remain steadfast. They cannot kill us all."

Zimbabwe's information minister, Jonathan Moyo, did not return phone calls for comment. But he told reporters last week that reporting by British and South African journalists critical of the government role in the Bulawayo clashes was irresponsible. "It is now an open secret that these reporters are not only distorting the facts but are assisting terrorists. . . . As for the correspondents, we would like them to know that we agree with President Bush that anyone who finances, harbors or defends terrorists is himself a terrorist." Foreign news organizations have denied the accusation, but Zanu PF lawmakers used the heightened political tensions to begin "fast-track" passage of new anti-terrorism measures, providing the government with wide authority to make arrests for "insurgency, kidnapping and murder." That legislation coincides with electoral reforms that will effectively ban absentee ballots from Zimbabweans living abroad, with the exception of diplomats and soldiers. Pending rubber-stamp approval from the Zanu PF-controlled parliament, the law will also require voters to present proof of residency, a measure that could shave thousands from the voter rolls, political analysts say.

Mugabe, who led Zimbabwe's rebel forces against the Rhodesian army, is the only leader this country has known since independence. Once a tremendously popular leader whose Marxist government provided Zimbabweans with free health care and education, Mugabe abandoned socialism after the Cold War ended. Zimbabwe's adjustment to a free-market economy, however, has been hurt by widespread government corruption and mismanagement, economists and activists say. Mugabe's decision three years ago to send nearly 12,000 troops to fight an unpopular civil war in neighboring Congo has damaged the economy even more, and turned many voters against him.

From ZWNEWS, 30 November

State shifts blame again

The government is again attempting to shift the blame for Zanu PF inspired violence onto the Movement for Democratic Change, echoing the recent events in Bulawayo, where the murder of Matabeleland war veterans leader Cain Nkala was blamed on the opposition party, and has resulted in widespread arrests of MDC officials in the province. State television on Wednesday accused MDC members staying at the home of Mrs Sekai Holland at Mtaga growth point in Mberengwa of petrol-bombing the home of one Zanu PF official, and beating up another. "Reports were made from Mberengwa West that Cde Chiwera's house was petrol bombed last night, seriously injuring his wife and child. His colleague Cde Mujeri was beaten up by suspected MDC youths believed to be staying at Sekai Holland's house at Mataga Growth Point," reported ZTV.

This latest episode in the ongoing campaign to portray the MDC as "terrorists" relates to the death shortly after 5 November of Ravengai Sikumucha, the brother of an MDC activist in the Mberengwa area. A registration drive was being conducted in the Mberengwa district by a MDC group from Gweru, with leaflets being dropped and rallies held, to persuade villagers to register as voters for the presidential election next year. A truck carrying the MDC group was followed by police near Jeka. Inspector Magumise – the member-in-charge of Mataga police station, who is also a local war veteran, and fiercely opposed to the MDC – was in the police vehicle. Sikumucha had, with others, run away as the police vehicle approached. It is alleged by an eye-witness, who is now in Harare in fear of his life, that Inspector Magumise and a CIO operative named Walter picked up Sikumucha, who was wearing similar clothes to his brother, and tortured him to death. The witness says that Sikumucha’s body was left at Musume hospital after the parents of the deceased refused to accept the police story that their son had leapt from the back of the police vehicle. The Buchwa police were said to have finally taken the body to Bulawayo for an autopsy last Thursday. A funeral has not yet been held.

"The ZTV report is a lie," said Mrs Holland, who is the MDC Secretary for International Affairs. "I fear that it is made to lay the ground for a return to a violent presidential campaign by the ruling party in Mberengwa district. Recently Biggie Chitoro was released on bail and has held three rallies to date in Mberengwa West - despite this being contrary to his bail conditions that he never participate in political activities." Biggie Chitoro is a Zanu PF member from the area heavily implicated in making the Mberengwa West constituency one of the worst affected by political violence before the June 2000 parliamentary elections. The Holland's home in Mberengwa has been a target for attack for more than a year. Every attempt has been made to remove its occupants not just from Mataga Growth Point but out of Mberengwa district itself. The home is used by the MDC party to hold their weekly district meetings. It is also used by the youth and women's groups for training.