Mugabe's Popularity Takes Plunge - Survey

October 27, 2000

Dumisani Muleya
Harare

President Mugabe's popularity has taken a dramatic plunge ahead of the crucial 2002 presidential election, an opinion poll by the Helen Suzman Foundation has revealed. The survey contains major shocks and paints an ominous picture for the embattled Mugabe whose problems now seem to be mounting at an alarming rate.

If an election was to be held today, it says, Mugabe would get a drubbing from the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai. The main opposition leader's support has surged since the beginning of the year and continues on an exponential rise while that of the president plunges.

"The MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, now leads Robert Mugabe as the choice for the next president by a margin of 41% to 15%," said the report compiled after the survey. Even on the most favourable assumptions for Mugabe, Tsvangirai would still win the election - if it were to be held now - by a wide margin of 62% to 38%.

"Simba Makoni, the new Finance minister, takes 8% of the vote," the report said of its sample survey. Public opinion by a 56% to 27% margin favoured Mugabe's immediate resignation and impeachment, the survey said.

The respondents said he should be impeached for all wrongs he has allegedly committed against the people while in office. At least 51% of the respondents said Mugabe should stand trial for alleged crimes after office while 24% said he should be pardoned without trial.

Ironically, the survey - which contains major shocks for the embattled regime - says Mugabe remains the only Zanu PF candidate who stood a better chance against Tsvangirai. Other leaders who were pitted against Mugabe in trying to secure the most popular potential Zanu PF candidate were Makoni, John Nkomo, Eddison Zvobgo and Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Mugabe came up tops with his lieutenants trailing in that order. Within the MDC, Tsvangirai was confirmed as the most popular choice ahead of his deputy Gibson Sibanda, secretary-general Welshman Ncube, Tendai Biti and Munyaradzi Gwisai whose names were included in the poll.

Public opinion in January showed that Mugabe led Tsvangirai by 10% in the presidential race. But things have since changed.

The margin is now 16% in favour of Tsvangirai. Zanu PF support has shrunk to 13% of the respondents against the MDC's 47%.

"The mood of rejection and dissatisfaction is now strongly negative," said Helen Suzman Foundation director Bill Johnson. "The evolution of public opinion since January has been dramatic and has been going in one direction," he said.

According to the survey, the anti-Mugabe/Zanu PF sentiment is so strong that there is now a danger that the MDC could end up being a monolithic party. The survey also dealt with the June parliamentary election which people said was "stolen".

About 49% to 43% of the respondents said the poll could not have been free and fair under conditions of violence while 45% to 37% said it was rigged. Furthermore, it sought to ascertain the level of public confidence in government and state institutions as well as who was responsible for Zimbabwe's probleMs.

The report was completed on October 7 and released on Wednesday.

It was undertaken by the South African- based organisation with the assistance of Zimbabwe's Probe Market Research - a subsidiary of Gallup International - on a national random sample of 2 000 respondents. Elsewhere it says: "President Mugabe's support had collapsed, particularly in the capital, Harare, where only 7% now want to see him as president, and among better educated voters (those with Advanced Level education and above) among whom his rating is down to 4%." It further stated that of late there had been a significant shift of public opinion in Mashonaland East province, more than in any other region, against Mugabe and Zanu PF.

Other provinces apart from Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West provinces were now strongly anti-establishment. The report said the public thought Mugabe was largely to blame for Zimbabwe's problems. Mugabe has consistently refused to admit that.

"It will be seen that even with a shrunken Zanu PF electorate, significant numbers are continuing to blame the president for the country's problems - although Zanu PF has had some success in getting its core followers to see the whites as the villains of the piece," the report observed. But it said those who identified themselves as Zanu PF supporters were evasive in answering the question who was to blame for Zimbabwe's problems? Most of them refused to answer that question.

Some said they did not know while others cited "people", "IMF and World Bank", and "foreign governments". A good number refused to blame the whites for the current economic and political crisis.

This, the report said, showed a dismal failure of government's propaganda pitch to polarise public opinion against the country's white minority. Despite government propaganda, only 6% of respondents said land was the most important issue for them, down from 9% in February.

The respondents said they were more worried about problems like inflation, unemployment, corruption, deteriorating standards of living and social services delivery. "The general wave of rejection of government is also reflected in a yet further erosion of confidence that the government can be trusted," said the survey.

It noted that government and Zanu PF now existed amidst a crisis of confidence. "It (Zanu PF) has lost huge swathes of support itself, its leader has become the polarising focus for public blame and unpopularity, and its policies are failing to carry conviction, often even among the party faithful," said the report.

"But perhaps the most serious sign of trouble is the clear indication of a collapse of morale amongst the Zanu PF's remaining hard core," it noted. The current crisis, according to the report, has had a profound impact on public opinion.

No wonder people now believe that the police and the army - who have been constantly used to suppress public demonstrations - are not impartial in carrying out their professional duties, it observes.

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Letters to the editor - Financial Gazette Zimbabwe 26 October 2000

Aren’t we also Zimbabweans?

We can be free without bloodshed

What’s going on with these cases?

Will our ‘Milosevic’go the same way?

We are prepared to sell you our President

Let’s give him a taste of his own medicine

Aren’t we also Zimbabweans?

Bev Clark, Harare.

EDITOR — Some months ago, President Robert Mugabe said he would not evict war veterans from invaded farms because he could not set the police and army ''upon my kith and kin''.

In the light of this statement and following the recent unleashing of violence by the police and army in the high-density suburbs of Harare, it is apparent that Mugabe has only a very narrow concept of which Zimbabwean citizens deserve respect and protection.

The fact that a small band of criminals running riot in the rural areas is offered verbal and logistical support from the ruling ZANU PF while those who riot in the urban areas protesting against their declining standard of living get whipped and beaten is the ultimate example of the degeneration of the leadership of this country.

Our urban brothers and sisters are either starving or being harassed by the authorities and yet a number of companies in Harare continue to hang the presidential portrait in their reception areas.

Let us unite and remove these portraits in support of a return to law and order in Zimbabwe.

We can be free without bloodshed

Cris Mgandane, Bulilimamangwe South.

EDITOR — We should always remember that President Robert Mugabe was created into the monster that he is today by ZANU PF.

Although he is autho-ritarian, he is serving ZANU PF interests as well. After all, was it not ZANU PF which gave him authoritarian powers?

In my opinion, removing Mugabe alone would serve no purpose as other ZANU PF monsters will continue from where Mugabe will have left.

Have we not been singing that “ZANU yaora”? Why then do we want to remove the rotten contents (Mugabe) only and leave the equally stinking container ( ZANU PF)? ZANU PF is rotten beyond redemption.

We should be bold enough to take the bull by the horns and call for the removal of ZANU PF from power. After all, it rigged its way to power. We have been docile and gullible for too long.

We are the source of our own oppression because we have tolerated and coo-perated with Mugabe’s go-vernment for the past 20 years and we continue to.

We do not need to spill blood to achieve our freedom. Have we not seen what civilised nations which know their rights and cherish the value of freedom did to dictators in Romania and Yugoslavia?

The solution is simple. The whole nation wakes up one day and tells Mugabe and his ZANU PF: “Time up!”

Don’t tell me you are afraid of being killed.

Did those who died for the liberation of Zimbabwe not want to live and enjoy the fruits of freedom?

If Mugabe understands what the War Crimes Tri-bunal is all about, do you think he will send the

army to massacre 10 million unarmed innocent civilians who simply demand free-dom? Wake up Zimba-bweans from your slumber! Get out of your cocoon!

What’s going on with these cases?

Gwezhira, Harare.

EDITOR — I know the commissioner of police is under no obligation to answer me but can he please update us on the investigations into the following cases:

lWhy he didn’t arrest Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) president Morgan Tsva-ngirai after the police had taken all the pain of advising Jonathan Moyo and the whole nation that Tsvangirai could be arrested — even going to the extent of deploying a battalion at the airport apparently to arrest him on arrival? What was the commissioner trying to prove?

•What stage has he reached in respect of the investigations into the alleged plot to eliminate Daily News editor-in-chief Geoffrey Nyarota by the Central Intelligence Organisation?

The last time we heard the police had moved in to guard Nyarota. This one is probably one of the most clear cases ever handled by the police but why in the world has nobody as yet been charged with the attempted assassination?

•What is going on with the “further investigations” into the corruption allegations against former agriculture minister Kumbirai Kangai and ex-Harare mayor Solomon Tawengwa and others?

Are we getting confirmation that their arrest was some kind of election gimmick?

lPolice commissioner, when you began the inquiry to find out why your officers gassed to death 13 people at the National Sports Stadium during a World Cup soccer qualifier between Zimbabwe and South Africa, you told the nation that you had picked scores of MDC youths who had been paid to disrupt the match.

We want to know why they haven’t been charged up to now.

•When the MDC offices were bombed, you found “weapons of war”. Why hasn’t any of the MDC’s shelf guys been charged?

I stand to be corrected by Wayne Bvudzijena, but as far as I know, most of the crimes that are attributed to the MDC are imagined by a partisan police force. In any case, I didn’t know a police officer could boast he belongs to a political party like Griffiths Mpofu did in his tirade against one Jonathan Moyo recently.

Will our ‘Milosevic’go the same way?

S Shumba, Mataga.

EDITOR — ''He was everywhere but you never saw him.''

This description of disgraced former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milo-sevic also suits our own “Milosevic”, President Robert Mugabe.

Mugabe is almost as ubiquitous as Milosevic.

Even in the rural areas, where many have never had a glimpse of his face, any mention of his name sends chills down the spines of men and women, both the elderly and the young.

For he is a hovering shadow that is in every corner of this once beautiful country.

But the multi-million-dollar question is: will “Bobodan” Mugabe go the Milosevic way?

We are prepared to sell you our President

New Dawn, Harare.

EDITOR — I see the brothers — and sisters, I presume — in Harlem see a hero when they look at our very own Robert Mugabe.

In order for them to get to see this “hero” much more often and put him to better use, I am proposing we sell him to them at a bargain price.

We guarantee that he is a product that performs with earth-shaking results and offers a good return on (dis)investment.

He is certified to transform your life dramatically in record time, in addition to being full

of unexpected, singularly astonishing original performances.

Please note, though, that he is being sold voetstoets and no goods will be allowed to be returned for whatever reason. We will not entertain any claims of liability in whatever form after sale.

Please also note that any ordinary Zimbabwean citizen has a firsthand experience of the results of his immense abilities and is therefore qualified and authorised to transact with any interested party.

So, for a prompt deal, could the Harlem folks please contact any Zimbabwean citizen, who will happily arrange for immediate shipment. We are very prepared to negotiate to a single-digit price, quoted in our local currency.

Let’s give him a taste of his own medicine

Lost Soul, London.

EDITOR — I am living in exile and nobody knows exactly where I am. Once in a while when people see me they think everything is okay with me.

But it’s not okay because I miss my home which I left, not out of choice, but out of desperation and frustration. My fellow countrymen back home call me a coward for “running away”, but then we are all cowards for letting one man decide our destiny.

Robert Mugabe talks of zero tolerance when it comes to dealing with “the enemy” and he means every word.

Just think of the beating up of former Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions leader and now Movement for Democratic Change president Morgan Tsvangirai back in 1998.

Think of the Matabeleland atrocities back in the 1980s, the violence before the June 2000 parliamentary election, the terror of the war veterans against all and sundry, the ransacking of the Capital Radio offices, the army’s presence in Mabvuku and other high-density suburbs in the wake of the recent food riots, the ever intimaditing activities of the Central Intelligence Organisation. It’s called zero tolerance.

Opposition members, why can’t we exercise the same level of intolerance towards this arch-rival of ours?

Everyday we whinge about the cost of living. But what are we doing about it? Are we going to wait for the presidential election?

Mugabe sincerely believes he is above the law. But what law?

Fellow Zimbabweans, where there is no rule of law no one is above the law. What I am saying is that we as citizens of Zimbabwe should, for one historical moment, become like Mugabe. Let’s lose our minds.

I am not suggesting violence. All we have to do is bring the nation to a standstill. Until the man resigns, we won’t go back to work.

We don’t want to hear industry and commerce cry about the “damage” to the economy because we don’t have an economy any more — it was depleted long ago. But we do have a market as well as innovative human resources to support the little that’s left of it — that’s all we need to resurrect ourselves.

A fresh start will be welcome to everyone. Financial aid will flow, debts will be written off and our children will thank us.

But if we do nothing now our children will hate us, the world will hate us and we will hate ourselves too.

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