Ivan Zhakata-Herald Correspondent
THE Zambezi River Authority has reduced the water allocation for power generation at Kariba Dam from 36 billion cubic metres (BCM) this year to 23 BCM for 2027, citing forecasts of strong El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall.
In a statement, ZRA acting chief executive officer Mr Peter Kapinga said the new allocation would be shared equally between the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and Zambia’s ZESCO Limited, with each utility receiving 11.5 BCM.
“The allocation is based on forecasts of strong El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall prevailing during the 2026/2027 rainfall season,” he said.
Mr Kapinga said the decision factored in the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), forecasts from meteorological agencies in both countries, and the Authority’s internal inflow projections.
The reduced allocation comes as the authority projects that usable water in the lake will decline to 5.83 BCM by December 31, 2027, which is equivalent to nine percent of live storage.
The reservoir is expected to begin 2027 with 16.24 BCM of usable water (25.10 percent of live storage) following improved inflows during the 2025/2026 season. For context, the combined allocation for 2026 stood at 36 BCM after an increase from an initial 30 BCM, allowing ZPC and ZESCO to receive 18 BCM each.
As of October 14, ZESCO’s Kariba North Bank Power Station had 3.53 BCM remaining from its current allocation (19.66 percent), while ZPC’s Kariba South Bank Power Station had 6.13 BCM (34.09 percent) left.
Although current water levels are higher than those recorded during the same period last year, the seasonal outlook points to renewed pressure. On October 14, 2026, the lake level stood at 480.65 metres above sea level with 23.77 BCM of usable water (36.68 percent of capacity). On the same date in 2025, the level was lower at 477.34 metres with 8.25 BCM of usable water (12.75 percent of capacity).
Mr Kapinga noted that SARCOF-33, held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28, 2026, indicated an increased likelihood of drought across much of central and southern Africa.
“For southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe, below-normal rainfall is expected during the early part of the season, with the same likely to extend across most areas of both countries from January to March 2027,” he said.
Mr Kapinga said the ZRA would monitor water utilisation daily and coordinate with the two utilities through joint technical committee meetings to ensure compliance.
“The Authority will also continue to assess water availability against its projections and communicate any operational decisions that may be made,” he said.
The ZRA is jointly owned by the governments of Zimbabwe and Zambia and is responsible for managing the Kariba Reservoir.
Source: ZRA slashes Kariba water allocation for 2027 – herald
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