Mutasa petition timely: Analysts

via Mutasa petition timely: Analysts – DailyNews Live 19 January 2015 by Maxwell Sibanda

HARARE – The recent statement by former Presidential Affairs minister Didymus Mutasa demanding the nullification of Zanu PF’s elective congress held in Harare last year at a time President Robert Mugabe was expected back from his annual leave is timely, say political analysts.

A statement availed to the Daily News last week, that was provocatively signed by Mutasa in his capacity as the ruling party’s secretary for administration, said in the broad interest of democracy and in defence of the Zanu PF founding principles, the disaffected party members called for the nullification of the entire process of “the so-called congress”, deeming it constitutionally flawed.

The statement also agitated for the re-instatement of “the entire constitutionally-elected office bearers of the party in all structures of all wings, as at the 1st of July 2014.”

Political activist Tabani Moyo believes Mutasa’s statement was aimed at opening many fronts for Mugabe to attend to as soon as he arrives home from his annual leave and also giving confidence to the group as it re-groups post the December 2014 congress.

“In essence, it sought to consolidate the culture within the group of eroding stronghold of power by one person in the party. Above all, the statement also seems to test the waters on how the party will respond way on time ahead of the 2018 elections.

“The bulk of the founding fathers of the party are challenging its leader to return the party to constitutionalism and respect of the party guidelines and sanctions upon deviation.

“However, the message seems to have been focused more on the group members as a mobilisation point and declaring the lines for internal battles with the other group,” said Moyo.

He added that if the court action mooted by Mutasa to nullify the outcome of congress is implemented before the by-elections, “the group will then use the confusion to field contestants which will entail double barrel candidates for Zanu PF.”

Journalist and Zuj secretary-general Foster Dongozi says the tone and agenda on the future of Mutasa has already been set.

“Mugabe’s responses to Mutasa’s statement and of intent to approach the courts can be difficult to predict and he may respond in a manner that nobody least anticipated,” said Dongozi.

He believes statements attributed to Emmerson Mnangagwa, Saviour Kasukuwere, Patrick Chinamasa, Oppah Muchinguri and others, “who are part of the winning team at the December Congress are likely to resonate with Mugabe and processes to expel Mutasa which have already started may be endorsed by Mugabe.

“This may actually trigger similar retributive actions against Mutasa’s allies, perceived, imaginary and real.”

A political analyst who declined to be named said Mutasa would be fired, harassed and asset-stripped of properties like farms.

“His actions are a brave and direct affront on Mugabe’s power and unprecedented in Zanu PF’s history. This is the first time ever, someone from the liberation party has contested a Zanu PF congress outcome presided over by Mugabe.”

He said others like Dumiso Dabengwa, Simba Makoni, and Margaret Dongo just left and formed their own outfits.

“Mutasa will pay heavily for it.

“That said, if Mutasa has a strong resolve and plays his cards well, he may cause real problems to Zanu PF while riding on the back of disgruntled supporters purged just before congress.

“Will they (those disgruntled) openly side with Mutasa? That remains to be seen and those people include Mujuru.

“If Mujuru openly sides with Mutasa, this will present a genuine political headache to Zanu PF attracting an intense crackdown.”

He added that Mujuru seems too scared to oppose Mugabe openly as she went through perhaps the most humiliating experience ever faced by a high-ranking official in Zanu PF.

“I do not see her standing up at all unless Zanu PF blunders by firing her based on Mutasa’s current actions, itself a risky move.

“In that case, she may be forced to openly join forces with Mutasa and others because then she will have nothing to lose.

“It is debatable whether Mujuru’s reactions to date are informed by prudential political strategy or downright cowardice.

“I choose the later. But, Mnangagwa used the same strategy in 2004 and it paid off.”

Political commentator Mcdonald Lewanika says Mutasa is a senior nationalist who has little to fear and Mugabe knows this, “but he was not an operator or a strategist during the war which Mugabe also knows and may give him some relief.”

“While Mutasa can fight, Lewanika believes Mugabe will take the opportunity to make him an example like he did on Gumbo.

“Mutasa has already been rubbished, now he will be ostracised and this time without any protection in the presidium.

“Mugabe maybe persuaded to embarrass Mutasa if he does not keep his head down, including stripping him of his seat, re-opening cases and other forms of harassment.”

Lewanika said what will be interesting is how far Mutasa will go with this and “who else will openly join him.”